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1. Impact of Positive Culture Reports of E. coli or MSSA on De-Escalation of Antibiotic Use in a Teaching Hospital in Pakistan and the Implications

Author

Haseeb A, Saleem Z, Altaf U, Batool N, Godman B, Ahsan U, Ashiq M, Razzaq M, Hanif R, E-Huma Z, Amir A, Hossain MA, Raafat M, Radwan RM, Iqbal MS, and Kamran SH

Subjects
anti-microbial resistance, anti-microbial stewardship, culture sensitivity reports, definitive treatment, empirical treatment, de-escalation, pakistan, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract

Abdul Haseeb,1 Zikria Saleem,2 Ummara Altaf,3 Narjis Batool,4 Brian Godman,5– 7 Umar Ahsan,8 Mehreen Ashiq,9 Mutiba Razzaq,9 Rabia Hanif,9 Zill E-Huma,9 Afreenish Amir,10 Mohammad Akbar Hossain,11 Mohamed Raafat,12 Rozan Mohammad Radwan,13 Muhammad Shahid Iqbal,14 Sairah Hafeez Kamran15 1Department of Clinical Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Umm AL-Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia; 2Department of Pharmacy Practice, Faculty of Pharmacy, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan; 3Department of Pharmacy, Ghurki Trust Teaching Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan; 4Australian Institute of Health Innovation, Center of Health Systems and Safety Research, Faculty of Medicine, Health and Human Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, UK; 6School of Pharmacy, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria, South Africa; 7Centre of Medical and Bio-Allied Health Sciences Research, Ajman University, Ajman, United Arab Emirates; 8Department of Infection Prevention and Control, Al Noor Specialist Hospital, Ministry of health, Makkah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 9Faculty of Pharmacy, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan; 10Department of Microbiology, National University of Medical Sciences, Rawalpindi, Pakistan; 11Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, Faculty of Medicine in Al-Qunfudah, Umm Al-Qura University, Makkah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 12Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, College of Pharmacy, Umm AL-Qura University, Makkah, Saudi Arabia; 13Pharmaceutical Care Department, Al Noor Specialist Hospital, Ministry of Health, Makkah, Saudi Arabia; 14Department of Clinical Pharmacy, College of Pharmacy, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Alkharj, Saudi Arabia; 15Institute of Pharmacy, Lahore College for Women University, Lahore, PakistanCorrespondence: Zikria Saleem, Department of Pharmacy Practice, Faculty of Pharmacy, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan, Email xikria@gmail.comBackground: Antibiotic de-escalation is a key element of antimicrobial stewardship programs that restrict the spread and emergence of resistance. This study was performed to evaluate the impact of positive culture sensitivity reports of E. coli or Methicillin sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) on de-escalation of antibiotic therapy.Methods: This prospective observational study was performed on 256 infected patients. The samples were obtained principally from the pus of infected sites for the identification of pathogens and culture-sensitivity testing. The data were collected from patient medical files, which included their demographic data, sample type, causative microbe and antimicrobial treatment as empiric or definitive treatment based on cultures. Data were analyzed using SPSS.Results: Of 256 isolated microbes, 138 (53.9%) were MSSA and 118 were E. coli (46.1%). MSSA showed 100% sensitivity to cefoxitin, oxacillin, vancomycin, fosfomycin, colistin and more than 90% to linezolid (95.3%), tigecycline (93.1%), chloramphenicol (92.2%) and amikacin (90.2%). E. coli showed 100% sensitivity to only fosfomycin and more than 90% to colistin (96.7%), polymyxin-B (95.1%) and tigecycline (92.9%). The high use of cefoperazone+sulbactam (151), amikacin (149), ceftriaxone (33), metronidazole (30) and piperacillin + tazobactam (22) was seen with empiric prescribing. Following susceptibility testing, the most common antibiotics prescribed for E. coli were meropenem IV (34), amikacin (34), ciprofloxacin (29) and cefoperazone+sulbactam (25). For MSSA cases, linezolid (48), clindamycin (30), cefoperazone+ sulbactam IV (16) and amikacin (15) was used commonly. Overall, there was 23% reduction in antibiotic use in case of E. coli and 43% reduction in MSSA cases.Conclusion: Culture sensitivity reports helped in the de-escalation of antimicrobial therapy, reducing the prescribing of especially broad-spectrum antibiotics. Consequently, it is recommended that local hospital guidelines be developed based on local antimicrobial susceptibility patterns while preventing the unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics for empiric treatment.Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, antimicrobial stewardship, culture sensitivity reports, definitive treatment, empirical treatment, de-escalation, Pakistan

Published
2023

2. Key Issues Surrounding Appropriate Antibiotic Use for Prevention of Surgical Site Infections in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Narrative Review and the Implications

Author

Mwita JC, Ogunleye O, Olalekan A, Kalungia AC, Kurdi A, Saleem Z, Sneddon J, and Godman B

Subjects
surgical site infections, antibiotic prophylaxis, timing of prophylaxis, duration of prophylaxis, lmics, quality indicators, Medicine (General), R5-920
Abstract

Julius C Mwita,1 Olayinka O Ogunleye,2,3 Adesola Olalekan,4,5 Aubrey C Kalungia,6 Amanj Kurdi,7,8 Zikria Saleem,9 Jacqueline Sneddon,10 Brian Godman7,11,12 1Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana; 2Department of Pharmacology, Therapeutics and Toxicology, Lagos State University College of Medicine, Lagos, Nigeria; 3Department of Medicine, Lagos State University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria; 4Department of Medical Laboratory Science, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria; 5Centre for Genomics of Non-Diseases and Personalized Healthcare (CGNPH), University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria; 6Department of Pharmacy, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia; 7Strathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, Strathclyde University, Glasgow, UK; 8Department of Pharmacology, College of Pharmacy, Hawler Medical University, Erbil, Iraq; 9Department of Pharmacy Practice, Faculty of Pharmacy, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan; 10Healthcare Improvement Scotland, Glasgow, UK; 11School of Pharmacy, Sefako Makgatho Health Sciences University, Pretoria, South Africa; 12School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, MalaysiaCorrespondence: Brian GodmanStrathclyde Institute of Pharmacy and Biomedical Sciences, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UKTel +44 141 548 3825Email Brian.godman@strath.ac.ukBackground: There is a concern with the growing use of antimicrobials across countries increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) rates. A key area within hospitals is their use for the prevention of surgical site infections (SSI) with concerns with timing of the first dose, which can appreciably impact on effectiveness, as well as duration with extended prophylaxis common among low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This is a concern as extended duration increases utilization rates and AMR as well as adverse events. Consequently, there is a need to document issues of timing and duration of surgical antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP) among LMICs together with potential ways forward to address current concerns.Methods: Narrative review of timings and duration of SAP among LMICs combined with publications documenting successful approaches to improve SAP to provide future direction to all key stakeholder groups.Results: There were documented concerns with the timing of the first dose of antibiotics, with appropriate timing as low as 6.7% in Egypt, although as high as 81.9% in Turkey. There was also an extensive duration of SAP, ranging from long duration times in all patients in a study in Nigeria with a mean of 8.7 days and 97% of patients in Egypt to 42.9% of patients in Pakistan and 35% in Turkey. Successful interventions to improve SAP typically involved multiple approaches including education of all key stakeholder groups, monitoring of usage against agreed guidelines,as well as quality targets. Multiple approaches typically improved timing and duration as well as reduced costs. For instance, in one study appropriateness increased from 30.1% to 91.4%, prolonged duration reduced to 5.7% of patients, and mean costs of antibiotics decreased 11-fold.Conclusion: There are considerable concerns with the timing and duration of SAP among LMICs. Multiple interventions among LMICs can address this providing future directions.Keywords: surgical site infections, antibiotic prophylaxis, timing of prophylaxis, duration of prophylaxis, LMICs, quality indicators

Published
2021

3. Determination of sodium hyaluronate in pharmaceutical formulations by HPLCâUV

Author

K. Ruckmani, Saleem Z. Shaikh, Pavne Khalil, M.S. Muneera, and O.A. Thusleem

Subjects
Therapeutics. Pharmacology, RM1-950
Abstract

A liquid chromatography (HPLC) method with UV detection was developed for determination of sodium hyaluronate in pharmaceutical formulation. Sodium hyaluronate is a polymer of disaccharides, composed of d-glucuronic acid and d-N-acetylglucosamine, linked via alternating β-1, 4 and β-1, 3 glycosidic bonds. Being a polymer compound it lacks a UV absorbing chromophore. In the absence of a UV absorbing chromophore and highly polar nature of compound, the analysis becomes a major challenge. To overcome these problems a novel method for the determination of sodium hyaluronate was developed and validated based on size exclusion liquid chromatography (SEC) with UV detection. An isocratic mobile phase consisting of buffer 0.05 M potassium dihydrogen phosphate, pH adjusted to 7.0 using potassium hydroxide (10%) was used. Chromatography was carried out at 25 °C on a BioSep SEC S2000, 300 mmÃ7.8 mm column. The detection was carried out using variable wavelength UVâvis detector set at 205 nm. The compounds were eluted isocratically at a steady flow rate of 1.0 mL/min. Sodium hyaluronate retention time was about 4.9 min with an asymmetry factor of 1.93. A calibration curve was obtained from 1 to 38 g/mL (r>0.9998). Within-day % RSD was 1.0 and between-day % RSD was 1.10. Specificity/selectivity experiments revealed the absence of interference from excipients, recovery from spiked samples for sodium hyaluronate was 99â102. The developed method was applied to the determination of sodium hyaluronate in pharmaceutical drug substance and product. Keywords: Sodium hyaluronate, Hyaluronic acid, Size exclusion chromatography, Derivatization, Chromophore

Published
2013
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4. Using Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Impurity Concentration in Solid Diffusion Process under Insufficient Input Parameters

Author

Iyad M. Muslih, Mohammad A. Mansour, and Saleem Z. Ramadan

Subjects
Mechanical engineering and machinery, TJ1-1570
Abstract

An ANN model is proposed to predict the impurity concentration in solid diffusion process when the diffusion coefficient is not known using back-propagation learning technique based on insufficient data for analytical solution. The proposed model was very competitive against the analytical method as the results showed high-performance results with minimal amount of error comparing to the analytical method. Moreover, the proposed ANN model can be used where the analytical methods cannot as in some situations wherethe diffusion coefficient is not available

Published
2011
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6. Quasi-Normal Modes for Subtracted Rotating and Magnetised Geometries

Author

Cvetic, M., Gibbons, G. W., and Saleem, Z. H.

Subjects
High Energy Physics - Theory, General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Abstract

We obtain explicit separable solutions of the wave equation of massless minimally coupled scalar fields in the subtracted geometry of four-dimensional rotating and Melvin (magnetised) four-charge black holes of the STU model, a consistent truncation of maximally supersymmetric supergravity with four types of electromagnetic fields. These backgrounds possess a hidden SL(2,R) x SL(2,R) x SO(3) symmetry and faithfully model the near horizon geometry of these black holes, but locate them in a confining asymptotically conical box. For each subtracted geometry we obtain two branches of quasi-normal modes, given in terms of hypergeometric functions and spherical harmonics. One branch is over-damped and the other under-damped and they exhibit rotational splitting. No black hole bomb is possible because the Killing field which co-rotates with the horizon is everywhere timelike outside the black hole. A five-dimensional lift of these geometries is given locally by the product of a BTZ black hole with a two-sphere. This allows an explicit analysis of the minimally coupled massive five-dimensional scalar field. Again, there are two branches, both damped, however now their oscillatory parts are shifted by the quantised wave number $k$ along the fifth circle direction., Comment: 28 pages minor corrections, added references

Published
2014
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7. Electrodynamics of Black Holes in STU Supergravity

Author

Cvetic, M., Gibbons, G. W., Pope, C. N., and Saleem, Z. H.

Subjects
High Energy Physics - Theory
Abstract

External magnetic fields can probe the composite structure of black holes in string theory. With this motivation we study magnetised four-charge black holes in the STU model, a consistent truncation of maximally supersymmetric supergravity with four types of electromagnetic fields. We employ solution generating techniques to obtain Melvin backgrounds, and black holes in these backgrounds. For an initially electrically charged static black hole immersed in magnetic fields, we calculate the resultant angular momenta and analyse their global structure. Examples are given for which the ergoregion does not extend to infinity. We calculate magnetic moments and gyromagnetic ratios via Larmor's formula. Our results are consistent with earlier special cases. A scaling limit and associated subtracted geometry in a single surviving magnetic field is shown to lift to $AdS_3\times S^2$. Magnetizing magnetically charged black holes give static solutions with conical singularities representing strings or struts holding the black holes against magnetic forces. In some cases it is possible to balance these magnetic forces., Comment: 31 pages

Published
2013
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11. OP0167 EULAR POINTS TO CONSIDER FOR PATIENT EDUCATION, PAIN MANAGEMENT AND PHYSICAL ACTIVITY ADAPTED TO THE SELF-MANAGEMENT OF JUVENILE-ONSET RHEUMATIC AND MUSCULOSKELETAL DISEASES DURING TRANSITIONAL CARE. THE EULAR MOVE-UP PROJECT

Author

Prieto-Moreno, R., primary, Courel-Ibañez, J., additional, Briones-Vozmediano, E., additional, Angevare, S., additional, Anton, J., additional, Ariza-Vega, P., additional, Bini, I., additional, Clemente, D., additional, Correia, M., additional, Costello, W., additional, Diederik, D. C., additional, Domjan, A., additional, Leon Mateos, L., additional, Marques, A., additional, Minden, K., additional, Mourão, A. F., additional, Najm, A., additional, Özen, S., additional, Pimentel, G., additional, Saleem, Z., additional, Vetrovsky, T., additional, Wulffraat, N., additional, Zacarias, A., additional, Prior, Y., additional, Carmona, L., additional, and Estevez-Lopez, F., additional

Published
2023
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13. Using Convolutional Neural Network with Cheat Sheet and Data Augmentation to Detect Breast Cancer in Mammograms

Author

Saleem Z. Ramadan

Subjects
Article Subject, Databases, Factual, Computer science, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7, Early detection, Breast Neoplasms, Convolutional neural network, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging, 03 medical and health sciences, Deep Learning, 0302 clinical medicine, Breast cancer, medicine, Humans, skin and connective tissue diseases, General Immunology and Microbiology, Artificial neural network, business.industry, Applied Mathematics, Deep learning, Computational Biology, Pattern recognition, General Medicine, medicine.disease, Radiographic Image Enhancement, Modeling and Simulation, Radiographic Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted, Labeled data, Female, Neural Networks, Computer, Artificial intelligence, Risk of death, business, Area under the roc curve, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, Mammography, Research Article
Abstract

The American Cancer Society expected to diagnose 276,480 new cases of invasive breast cancer in the USA and 48,530 new cases of noninvasive breast cancer among women in 2020. Early detection of breast cancer, followed by appropriate treatment, can reduce the risk of death from this disease. DL through CNN can assist imaging specialists in classifying the mammograms accurately. Accurate classification of mammograms using CNN needs a well-trained CNN by a large number of labeled mammograms. Unfortunately, a large number of labeled mammograms are not always available. In this study, a novel procedure to aid imaging specialists in detecting normal and abnormal mammograms has been proposed. The procedure supplied the designed CNN with a cheat sheet for some classical attributes extracted from the ROI and an extra number of labeled mammograms through data augmentation. The cheat sheet aided the CNN through encoding easy-to-recognize artificial patterns in the mammogram before passing it to the CNN, and the data augmentation supported the CNN with more labeled data points. Fifteen runs of 4 different modified datasets taken from the MIAS dataset were conducted and analyzed. The results showed that the cheat sheet, along with data augmentation, enhanced CNN’s accuracy by at least 12.2% and enhanced the precision of the CNN by at least 2.2. The mean accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity obtained using the proposed procedure were 92.1, 91.4, and 96.8, respectively, while the average area under the ROC curve was 94.9.

Published
2020
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14. Methods Used in Computer-Aided Diagnosis for Breast Cancer Detection Using Mammograms: A Review

Author

Saleem Z. Ramadan

Subjects
Medicine (General), medicine.medical_specialty, Computer science, Breast imaging, Biomedical Engineering, MEDLINE, Breast Neoplasms, Health Informatics, CAD, Review Article, 02 engineering and technology, 030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging, 03 medical and health sciences, R5-920, 0302 clinical medicine, Breast cancer, Medical technology, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, medicine, Humans, Medical physics, Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted, R855-855.5, Second opinion, Cancer, medicine.disease, United States, Computer-aided diagnosis, Pattern recognition (psychology), Radiographic Image Interpretation, Computer-Assisted, Female, 020201 artificial intelligence & image processing, Surgery, Algorithms, Mammography, Biotechnology
Abstract

According to the American Cancer Society’s forecasts for 2019, there will be about 268,600 new cases in the United States with invasive breast cancer in women, about 62,930 new noninvasive cases, and about 41,760 death cases from breast cancer. As a result, there is a high demand for breast imaging specialists as indicated in a recent report for the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council. One way to meet this demand is through developing Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) systems for breast cancer detection and diagnosis using mammograms. This study aims to review recent advancements and developments in CAD systems for breast cancer detection and diagnosis using mammograms and to give an overview of the methods used in its steps starting from preprocessing and enhancement step and ending in classification step. The current level of performance for the CAD systems is encouraging but not enough to make CAD systems standalone detection and diagnose clinical systems. Unless the performance of CAD systems enhanced dramatically from its current level by enhancing the existing methods, exploiting new promising methods in pattern recognition like data augmentation in deep learning and exploiting the advances in computational power of computers, CAD systems will continue to be a second opinion clinical procedure.

Published
2020
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16. Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) Through Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Satellites: A Survey on Current Status, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author

Prol, F. S., primary, Ferre, R. Morales, additional, Saleem, Z., additional, Valisuo, P., additional, Pinell, C., additional, Lohan, E. S., additional, Elsanhoury, M., additional, Elmusrati, M., additional, Islam, S., additional, Celikbilek, K., additional, Selvan, K., additional, Yliaho, J., additional, Rutledge, K., additional, Ojala, A., additional, Ferranti, L., additional, Praks, J., additional, Bhuiyan, M. Z. H., additional, Kaasalainen, S., additional, and Kuusniemi, H., additional

Published
2022
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19. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

Author

Roth G. A., Roth, G, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, H, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abejie, A, Abera, S, Abil, O, Abraha, H, Abrham, A, Abu-Raddad, L, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, D, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adedoyin, R, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Adhena, B, Adib, M, Admasie, A, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmed, M, Ahmed, S, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akbari, M, Akinyemi, R, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alebel, A, Alene, K, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Aminde, L, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Amoako, Y, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, Animut, M, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, H, Ansha, M, Antonio, C, Anwari, P, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H, Asfaw, E, Ataro, Z, Atique, S, Atre, S, Ausloos, M, Avokpaho, E, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayele, Y, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, P, Babazadeh, A, Bacha, U, Badali, H, Badawi, A, Bali, A, Ballesteros, K, Banach, M, Banerjee, K, Bannick, M, Banoub, J, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barquera, S, Barrero, L, Bassat, Q, Basu, S, Baune, B, Baynes, H, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Bejot, Y, Bekele, B, Belachew, A, Belay, E, Belay, Y, Bell, M, Bello, A, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Berman, A, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, R, Bertolacci, G, Beuran, M, Beyranvand, T, Bhalla, A, Bhattarai, S, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, Z, Biadgo, B, Biehl, M, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bilano, V, Bililign, N, Bin Sayeed, M, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, T, Blacker, B, Basara, B, Borschmann, R, Bosetti, C, Bozorgmehr, K, Brady, O, Brant, L, Brayne, C, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, N, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Britton, G, Brugha, T, Busse, R, Butt, Z, Callender, C, Campos-Nonato, I, Campuzano Rincon, J, Cano, J, Car, M, Cardenas, R, Carreras, G, Carrero, J, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Castillo Rivas, J, Castle, C, Castro, C, Castro, F, Catala-Lopez, F, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chaturvedi, P, Chiang, P, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chisumpa, V, Chitheer, A, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Chung, S, Cicuttini, F, Ciobanu, L, Cirillo, M, Cohen, A, Cooper, L, Cortesi, P, Cortinovis, M, Cousin, E, Cowie, B, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Crowe, C, Crump, J, Cunningham, M, Daba, A, Dadi, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dang, A, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Das, S, Gupta, R, Neves, J, Dasa, T, Dash, A, Davis, A, Davis Weaver, N, Davitoiu, D, Davletov, K, De La Hoz, F, De Neve, J, Degefa, M, Degenhardt, L, Degfie, T, Deiparine, S, Demoz, G, Demtsu, B, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des Jarlais, D, Dessie, G, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, S, Dicker, D, Dinberu, M, Ding, E, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Donnelly, C, Dorsey, E, Doshi, P, Douwes-Schultz, D, Doyle, K, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, E, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Edessa, D, Edvardsson, D, Eggen, A, El Bcheraoui, C, El Sayed Zaki, M, El-Khatib, Z, Elkout, H, Ellingsen, C, Endres, M, Endries, A, Er, B, Erskine, H, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esmaeili, R, Esteghamati, A, Fakhar, M, Fakhim, H, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farinha, C, Faro, A, Farvid, M, Farzadfar, F, Farzaei, M, Feigin, V, Feigl, A, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Feyissa, G, Filip, I, Finegold, S, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Fornari, C, Frank, T, Fukumoto, T, Fuller, J, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Furtado, J, Futran, N, Gallus, S, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Garcia-Gordillo, M, Gardner, W, Gebre, A, Gebrehiwot, T, Gebremedhin, A, Gebremichael, B, Gebremichael, T, Gelano, T, Geleijnse, J, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Y, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadami, M, Ghadimi, R, Ghasemi Falavarjani, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Gibney, K, Gill, P, Gill, T, Gillum, R, Ginawi, I, Giroud, M, Giussani, G, Goenka, S, Goldberg, E, Goli, S, Gomez-Dantes, H, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorman, T, Goto, A, Goulart, A, Gnedovskaya, E, Grada, A, Grosso, G, Gugnani, H, Guimaraes, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, P, Gupta, T, Gutierrez, R, Gyawali, B, Haagsma, J, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hagos, T, Hailegiyorgis, T, Hailu, G, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, R, Hamidi, S, Handal, A, Hankey, G, Harb, H, Harikrishnan, S, Haro, J, Hasan, M, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, R, Hay, S, He, Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A, Hegazy, M, Heibati, B, Heidari, M, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, N, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Heydarpour, P, Heydarpour, S, Hibstu, D, Hoek, H, Hole, M, Homaie Rad, E, Hoogar, P, Hosgood, H, Hosseini, S, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, P, Hoy, D, Hsiao, T, Hu, G, Huang, J, Husseini, A, Hussen, M, Hutfless, S, Idrisov, B, Ilesanmi, O, Iqbal, U, Irvani, S, Irvine, C, Islam, N, Islam, S, Islami, F, Jacobsen, K, Jahangiry, L, Jahanmehr, N, Jain, S, Jakovljevic, M, Jalu, M, James, S, Javanbakht, M, Jayatilleke, A, Jeemon, P, Jenkins, K, Jha, R, Jha, V, Johnson, C, Johnson, S, Jonas, J, Joshi, A, Jozwiak, J, Jungari, S, Jurisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kalani, R, Karami, M, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karema, C, Karimi-Sari, H, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, D, Kassa, G, Kassa, T, Kassebaum, N, Katikireddi, S, Kaul, A, Kazemi, Z, Kazemi Karyani, A, Kazi, D, Kefale, A, Keiyoro, P, Kemp, G, Kengne, A, Keren, A, Kesavachandran, C, Khader, Y, Khafaei, B, Khafaie, M, Khajavi, A, Khalid, N, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khan, M, Khang, Y, Khater, M, Khoja, A, Khosravi, A, Khosravi, M, Khubchandani, J, Kiadaliri, A, Kibret, G, Kidanemariam, Z, Kiirithio, D, Kim, D, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Kivimaki, M, Knudsen, A, Kocarnik, J, Kochhar, S, Kokubo, Y, Kolola, T, Kopec, J, Koul, P, Koyanagi, A, Kravchenko, M, Krishan, K, Kuate Defo, B, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kumar, G, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Kutz, M, 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Abstract

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article.

Published
2018

20. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Kyu, H, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, M, Abebe, Z, Abil, O, Aboyans, V, Abrham, A, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, I, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adekanmbi, V, Ademi, Z, Adetokunboh, O, Adib, M, Adsuar, J, Afanvi, K, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, S, Agrawal, A, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, M, Ahmed, S, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Al-Raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, S, Alene, K, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alonso, J, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Aminde, L, Amini, E, Amiresmaili, M, Ammar, W, Amoako, Y, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, Animut, M, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, M, Antonio, C, Anwari, P, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Arnlov, J, Arora, A, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H, Ataro, Z, Ausloos, M, Avila-Burgos, L, Avokpaho, E, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayer, R, Azzopardi, P, Babazadeh, A, Badali, H, Balakrishnan, K, Bali, A, Banach, M, Banoub, J, Barac, A, Barboza, M, Barker-Collo, S, Barnighausen, T, Barquera, S, Barrero, L, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Beghi, E, Behzadifar, M, Bekele, B, Bekru, E, Belachew, A, Belay, Y, Bell, M, Bello, A, Bennett, D, Bensenor, I, Berhane, A, Bernabe, E, Bernstein, R, Beuran, M, Beyranvand, T, Bhala, N, Bhatt, S, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, Z, Biadgo, B, Biehl, M, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Bilano, V, Bililign, N, Bin Sayeed, M, Bisanzio, D, Bjorge, T, Bleyer, A, Bobasa, E, Bou-Orm, I, Boufous, S, Bourne, R, Brady, O, Brant, L, Brayne, C, Brazinova, A, Breitborde, N, Brenner, H, Briant, P, Briko, A, Britton, G, Brugha, T, Buchbinder, R, Busse, R, Butt, Z, Cahuana-Hurtado, L, Campuzano Rincon, J, Cano, J, Cardenas, R, Carrero, J, Carter, A, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, C, Rivas, J, Castro, F, Catala-Lopez, F, Cercy, K, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chattu, V, Chiang, P, Chitheer, A, Choi, J, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Chung, S, Cicuttini, F, Cirillo, M, Collado-Mateo, D, Cooper, C, Cortesi, P, Cortinovis, M, Cousin, E, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Cross, M, Crump, J, Daba, A, Dachew, B, Dadi, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Das Gupta, R, Das Neves, J, Dasa, T, Davitoiu, D, De La Hoz, F, De Leo, D, De Neve, J, De Steur, H, Degefa, M, Degenhardt, L, Deiparine, S, Demoz, G, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des Jarlais, D, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, S, Dhimal, M, Dinberu, M, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Dorsey, E, Doyle, K, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, E, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Echko, M, Edessa, D, Edvardsson, D, Effiong, A, Eggen, A, Ehrlich, J, El Bcheraoui, C, El-Khatib, Z, Elyazar, I, Enayati, A, Endalifer, M, Endries, A, Er, B, Erskine, H, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Fakhim, H, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farid, T, Sa Farinha, C, Farioli, A, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fazaeli, A, Feigin, V, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Ferreira, M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Frank, T, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Furst, T, Furtado, J, Gakidou, E, Gall, S, Gallus, S, Ganji, M, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Gardner, W, Gebre, A, Gebremedhin, A, Gebremichael, T, Gelano, T, Geleijnse, J, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Y, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadami, M, Ghadiri, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Ghoshal, A, Gill, P, Gill, T, Ginawi, I, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, E, Goldberg, E, Goli, S, Gomez-Dantes, H, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorman, T, Goulart, A, Goulart, B, Grada, A, Grosso, G, Gugnani, H, Guillemin, F, Guo, Y, Gupta, P, Gupta, R, Gupta, T, Gutierrez, R, Gyawali, B, Haagsma, J, Hachinski, V, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Bidgoli, H, Hagos, T, Hailegiyorgis, T, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, R, Hamidi, S, Handal, A, Hankey, G, Hao, Y, Harb, H, Harikrishnan, S, Haririan, H, Haro, J, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, H, Havmoeller, R, Hay, R, Hay, S, Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A, Heibati, B, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Heredia-Pi, I, Herteliu, C, Heydarpour, F, Heydarpour, P, Hibstu, D, Hoek, H, Hoffman, H, Hole, M, Rad, E, Hoogar, P, Hosgood, H, Hosseini, S, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hotez, P, Hoy, D, Hsairi, M, Htet, A, Huang, J, Iburg, K, Ikeda, C, Ilesanmi, O, Irvani, S, Irvine, C, Islam, S, Islami, F, Jacobsen, K, Jahangiry, L, Jahanmehr, N, Jain, S, Jakovljevic, M, James, S, Jayatilleke, A, Jeemon, P, Jha, R, Jha, V, Ji, J, Johnson, C, Jonas, J, Jonnagaddala, J, Shushtari, Z, Joshi, A, Jozwiak, J, Jungari, S, Jurisson, M, Kabir, Z, Kadel, R, Kahsay, A, Kalani, R, Kanchan, T, Kar, C, Karami, M, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karema, C, Karimi, N, Karimi, S, Kasaeian, A, Kassa, D, Kassa, G, Kassa, T, Kassebaum, N, Katikireddi, S, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazemi, Z, Kazemi Karyani, A, Keighobadi, M, Keiyoro, P, Kemmer, L, Kemp, G, Kengne, A, Keren, A, Khader, Y, Khafaei, B, Khafaie, M, Khajavi, A, Khalid, N, Khalil, I, Khan, E, Khan, M, Khang, Y, Khater, M, Khazaei, M, Khoja, A, Khosravi, A, Khosravi, M, Kiadaliri, A, Kidanemariam, Z, Kiirithio, D, Kim, C, Kim, D, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kinfu, Y, Kisa, A, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Knudsen, A, Kocarnik, J, Kochhar, S, Kokubo, Y, Kolola, T, Kopec, J, Kosen, S, Kotsakis, G, Koul, P, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Krishnaswami, S, Krohn, K, Defo, B, Bicer, B, Kumar, G, Kumar, M, Kuzin, I, Lad, D, Lad, S, Lafranconi, A, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lami, F, Lang, J, Langan, S, Lansingh, V, Latifi, A, Lau, K, Lazarus, J, Leasher, J, Ledesma, J, Lee, P, Leigh, J, Leili, M, Leshargie, C, Leung, J, Levi, M, Lewycka, S, Li, S, Li, Y, Liang, X, Liao, Y, Liben, M, Lim, L, Lim, S, Limenih, M, Linn, S, Liu, S, Looker, K, Lopez, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Lucas, T, Lunevicius, R, Lyons, R, Ma, S, Macarayan, E, Mackay, M, Maddison, E, Madotto, F, Maghavani, D, Mai, H, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, D, Mamun, A, Manda, A, Manguerra, H, Mansournia, M, Mantilla Herrera, A, Mantovani, L, Maravilla, J, Marcenes, W, Marks, A, Martins-Melo, F, Martopullo, I, Marz, W, Marzan, M, Massano, J, Massenburg, B, Mathur, M, Maulik, P, Mazidi, M, Mcalinden, C, Mcgrath, J, Mckee, M, Mcmahon, B, Mehata, S, Mehrotra, R, Mehta, K, Mehta, V, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Mekonen, T, Melese, A, Melku, M, Memiah, P, Memish, Z, Mendoza, W, Mengistu, G, Mensah, G, Mereta, S, Meretoja, A, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Miazgowski, T, Millear, A, Miller, T, Mini, G, Mirarefin, M, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, E, Misganaw, A, Mitchell, P, Mitiku, H, Moazen, B, Mohajer, B, Mohammad, K, Mohammadi, M, Mohammadifard, N, Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M, Mohammed, M, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, A, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Montanez, J, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradinazar, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Velasquez, I, Morgado-Da-Costa, J, Morrison, S, Moschos, M, Mousavi, S, Mruts, K, Muche, A, Muchie, K, Mueller, U, Muhammed, O, Mukhopadhyay, S, Muller, K, Mumford, J, Murthy, G, Musa, K, Mustafa, G, Nabhan, A, Nagata, C, Nagel, G, Naghavi, M, Naheed, A, Nahvijou, A, Naik, G, Najafi, F, Nam, H, Nangia, V, Nansseu, J, Neamati, N, Negoi, I, Negoi, R, Neupane, S, Newton, C, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, A, Nguyen, G, Nguyen, H, Nguyen, L, Nguyen, M, Nguyen, N, Nguyen, S, Nichols, E, Ningrum, D, Nixon, M, Nomura, S, Noroozi, M, Norrving, B, Noubiap, J, Nouri, H, Shiadeh, M, Nowroozi, M, Nsoesie, E, Nyasulu, P, Odell, C, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, F, Oh, I, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, A, Olagunju, T, Olivares, P, Olsen, H, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Ong, K, Ong, S, Oren, E, Ortiz, A, Ota, E, Otstavnov, S, Overland, S, Owolabi, M, Mahesh, P, Pacella, R, Pakhare, A, Pakpour, A, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Park, E, Park, J, Parry, C, Parsian, H, Pasdar, Y, Patel, S, Patil, S, Patle, A, Patton, G, Paturi, V, Paudel, D, Paulson, K, Pearce, N, Pereira, A, Pereira, D, Perico, N, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Pham, H, Phillips, M, Pigott, D, Pillay, J, Piradov, M, Pirsaheb, M, Pishgar, F, Plana-Ripoll, O, Polinder, S, Popova, S, Postma, M, Pourshams, A, Poustchi, H, Prabhakaran, D, Prakash, S, Prakash, V, Prasad, N, Purcell, C, Qorbani, M, Quistberg, D, Radfar, A, Rafay, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi, K, Rahimi, Z, Rahimi-Movaghar, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Ur Rahman, M, Rahman, S, Rai, R, Rajati, F, Ranjan, P, Rao, P, Rasella, D, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Reddy, K, Reiner, R, Reitsma, M, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, A, Resnikoff, S, Rezaei, S, Rezai, M, Ribeiro, A, Roberts, N, Robinson, S, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Roth, G, Rothenbacher, D, Rubagotti, E, Sachdev, P, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Saeedi Moghaddam, S, Safari, H, Safari, Y, Safari-Faramani, R, Safdarian, M, Safi, S, Safiri, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, M, Sajadi, H, Salam, N, Salama, J, Salamati, P, Saleem, Z, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Salomon, J, Salvi, S, Salz, I, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sanchez-Nino, M, Santomauro, D, Santos, I, Santos, J, Santric Milicevic, M, Sao Jose, B, Sardana, M, Sarker, A, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sarrafzadegan, N, Sartorius, B, Sarvi, S, Sathian, B, Satpathy, M, Sawant, A, Sawhney, M, Saxena, S, Schaeffner, E, Schmidt, M, Schneider, I, Schutte, A, Schwebel, D, Schwendicke, F, Scott, J, Sekerija, M, Sepanlou, S, Servan-Mori, E, Seyedmousavi, S, Shabaninejad, H, Shafieesabet, A, Shahbazi, M, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, H, Sharafi, K, Sharif, M, Sharif-Alhoseini, M, Sharma, J, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shi, P, Shibuya, K, Shiferaw, M, Shigematsu, M, Shiri, R, Shirkoohi, R, Shiue, I, Shokoohinia, Y, Shokraneh, F, Shoman, H, Shrime, M, Si, S, Siabani, S, Sibai, A, Siddiqi, T, Sigfusdottir, I, Sigurvinsdottir, R, Silva, D, Silva, J, Silveira, D, Singam, N, Singh, J, Singh, N, Singh, V, Sinha, D, Skiadaresi, E, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Smith, D, Smith, M, Filho, A, Sobaih, B, Sobhani, S, Soofi, M, Sorensen, R, Soyiri, I, Sposato, L, Sreeramareddy, C, Srinivasan, V, Stanaway, J, Starodubov, V, Stein, D, Steiner, C, Steiner, T, Stokes, M, Stovner, L, Subart, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, M, Sulo, G, Sunguya, B, Sur, P, Sykes, B, Sylaja, P, Sylte, D, Szoeke, C, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tabuchi, T, Tadakamadla, S, Tandon, N, Tassew, S, Tavakkoli, M, Taveira, N, Taylor, H, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekalign, T, Tekelemedhin, S, Tekle, M, Temsah, M, Temsah, O, Terkawi, A, Tessema, B, Teweldemedhin, M, Thankappan, K, Theis, A, Thirunavukkarasu, S, Thomas, N, Tilahun, B, To, Q, Tonelli, M, Topor-Madry, R, Torre, A, Tortajada-Girbes, M, Touvier, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Towbin, J, Tran, B, Tran, K, Troeger, C, Tsadik, A, Tsoi, D, Tudor Car, L, Tyrovolas, S, Ukwaja, K, Ullah, I, Undurraga, E, Updike, R, Usman, M, Uthman, O, Vaduganathan, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, P, Varavikova, E, Varughese, S, Vasankari, T, Venketasubramanian, N, Villafaina, S, Violante, F, Vladimirov, S, Vlassov, V, Vollset, S, Vos, T, Vosoughi, K, Vujcic, I, Wagnew, F, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, R, Weiss, D, Weldegebreal, F, Weldegwergs, K, Werdecker, A, West, T, Westerman, R, Whiteford, H, Widecka, J, Wijeratne, T, Williams, H, Wilner, L, Wilson, S, Winkler, A, Wiyeh, A, Wiysonge, C, Wolfe, C, Woolf, A, Wyper, G, Xavier, D, Xu, G, Yadgir, S, Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S, Yamada, T, Yan, L, Yano, Y, Yaseri, M, Yasin, Y, Yeshaneh, A, Yimer, E, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S, Yotebieng, M, Younis, M, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Zadnik, V, Zaidi, Z, Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zandian, H, Zar, H, Zenebe, Z, Zipkin, B, Zhou, M, Zodpey, S, Zucker, I, Zuhlke, L, Murray, C, Kyu H. H., Abate D., Abate K. H., Abay S. M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R. S., Abebe M., Abebe Z., Abil O. Z., Aboyans V., Abrham A. R., Abu-Raddad L. J., Abu-Rmeileh N. M. E., Accrombessi M. M. K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Ackerman I. N., Adamu A. A., Adebayo O. M., Adekanmbi V., Ademi Z., Adetokunboh O. O., Adib M. G., Adsuar J. C., Afanvi K. A., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K. M., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S. A., Agrawal A., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M. B., Ahmed S., Aichour A. N., Aichour I., Aichour M. T. E., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Mekhlafi H. M., Al-Raddadi R. M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alashi A., Alavian S. M., Alene K. A., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S. M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Alonso J., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Aminde L. N., Amini E., Amiresmaili M., Ammar W., Amoako Y. A., Anber N. H., Andrei C. L., Androudi S., Animut M. D., Anjomshoa M., Ansha M. G., Antonio C. A. T., Anwari P., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Arora A., Arora M., Artaman A., Aryal K. K., Asayesh H., Ataro Z., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E. F. G. A., Awasthi A., Ayala Quintanilla B. P., Ayer R., Azzopardi P. S., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Balakrishnan K., Bali A. G., Banach M., Banoub J. A. M., Barac A., Barboza M. A., Barker-Collo S. L., Barnighausen T. W., Barquera S., Barrero L. H., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Bekele B. B., Bekru E. T., Belachew A. B., Belay Y. A., Bell M. L., Bello A. K., Bennett D. A., Bensenor I. M., Berhane A., Bernabe E., Bernstein R. S., Beuran M., Beyranvand T., Bhala N., Bhatt S., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z. A., Biadgo B., Biehl M. H., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Bilano V., Bililign N., Bin Sayeed M. S., Bisanzio D., Bjorge T., Bleyer A., Bobasa E. M., Bou-Orm I. R., Boufous S., Bourne R., Brady O. J., Brant L. C., Brayne C., Brazinova A., Breitborde N. J. K., Brenner H., Briant P. S., Briko A. N., Britton G., Brugha T., Buchbinder R., Busse R., Butt Z. A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Campuzano Rincon J. C., Cano J., Cardenas R., Carrero J. J., Carter A., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C. A., Rivas J. C., Castro F., Catala-Lopez F., Cercy K. M., Cerin E., Chaiah Y., Chang J. -C., Charlson F. J., Chattu V. K., Chiang P. P. -C., Chitheer A., Choi J. -Y. J., Christensen H., Christopher D. J., Chung S. -C., Cicuttini F. M., Cirillo M., Collado-Mateo D., Cooper C., Cortesi P. A., Cortinovis M., Cousin E., Criqui M. H., Cromwell E. A., Cross M., Crump J. A., Daba A. K., Dachew B. A., Dadi A. F., Dandona L., Dandona R., Dargan P. I., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Das Neves J., Dasa T. T., Davitoiu D. V., De La Hoz F. P., De Leo D., De Neve J. -W., De Steur H., Degefa M. G., Degenhardt L., Deiparine S., Demoz G. T., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Dervenis N., Des Jarlais D. C., Dey S., Dharmaratne S. D., Dhimal M., Dinberu M. T., Dirac M. 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Abstract

Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased

Published
2018

21. Methods Used in Computer-Aided Diagnosis for Breast Cancer Detection Using Mammograms: A Review

Author

Ramadan, Saleem Z.

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Article Subject
Abstract

According to the American Cancer Society’s forecasts for 2019, there will be about 268,600 new cases in the United States with invasive breast cancer in women, about 62,930 new noninvasive cases, and about 41,760 death cases from breast cancer. As a result, there is a high demand for breast imaging specialists as indicated in a recent report for the Institute of Medicine and National Research Council. One way to meet this demand is through developing Computer-Aided Diagnosis (CAD) systems for breast cancer detection and diagnosis using mammograms. This study aims to review recent advancements and developments in CAD systems for breast cancer detection and diagnosis using mammograms and to give an overview of the methods used in its steps starting from preprocessing and enhancement step and ending in classification step. The current level of performance for the CAD systems is encouraging but not enough to make CAD systems standalone detection and diagnose clinical systems. Unless the performance of CAD systems enhanced dramatically from its current level by enhancing the existing methods, exploiting new promising methods in pattern recognition like data augmentation in deep learning and exploiting the advances in computational power of computers, CAD systems will continue to be a second opinion clinical procedure.

Published
2020
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24. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

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Patil, Snehal T, Patle, Ajay, Patton, George C, Paturi, Vishnupriya Rao, Paudel, Deepak, Paulson, Katherine R, Pearce, Neil, Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M, Perico, Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Pham, Hai Quang, Phillips, Michael R, Pigott, David M, Pillay, Julian David, Piradov, Michael A, Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pishgar, Farhad, Plana-Ripoll, Oleguer, Polinder, Suzanne, Popova, Svetlana, Postma, Maarten J, Pourshams, Akram, Poustchi, Hossein, Prabhakaran, Dorairaj, Prakash, Swayam, Prakash, V., Prasad, Narayan, Purcell, Caroline A, Qorbani, Mostafa, Quistberg, D Alex, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rafiei, Alireza, Rahim, Fakher, Rahimi, Kazem, Rahimi, Zohreh, Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajati, Fatemeh, Ranjan, Prabhat, Rao, Puja C, Rasella, Davide, Rawaf, David Laith, Rawaf, Salman, Reddy, K Srinath, Reiner, Robert C, Reitsma, Marissa Bettay, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre M N, Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Satar, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Ribeiro, Antonio Luiz P, Roberts, Nicholas L S, Robinson, Stephen R, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostami, Ali, Roth, Gregory A, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Rubagotti, Enrico, Sachdev, Perminder S, Sadat, Nafi, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar, Safari, Hosein, Safari, Yahya, Safari-Faramani, Roya, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, Haniye Sadat, Salam, Nasir, Salama, Joseph S, Salamati, Payman, Saleem, Zikria, Salimi, Yahya, Salimzadeh, Hamideh, Salomon, Joshua A, Salvi, Sundeep Santosh, Salz, Inbal, Samy, Abdallah M, Sanabria, Juan, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolore, Santomauro, Damian Francesco, Santos, Itamar S, Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M, Sao Jose, Bruno Piassi, Sardana, Mayank, Sarker, Abdur Razzaque, Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo, Sarrafzadegan, Nizal, Sartorius, 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Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Temsah, Omar, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Belay, Teweldemedhin, Mebrahtu, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Theis, Andrew, Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish, Thomas, Nihal, Tilahun, Binyam, To, Quyen G, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna E, Tortajada-Girbés, Miguel, Touvier, Mathilde, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto, Towbin, Jeffrey A, Tran, Bach Xuan, Tran, Khanh Bao, Troeger, Christopher E, Tsadik, Afewerki Gebremeskel, Tsoi, Derrick, Tudor Car, Lorainne, Tyrovolas, Stefano, Ukwaja, Kingsley Nnanna, Ullah, Irfan, Undurraga, Eduardo A, Updike, Rachel L, Usman, Muhammad Shariq, Uthman, Olalekan A, Vaduganathan, Muthiah, Vaezi, Afsane, Valdez, Pascual R, Varavikova, Elena, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Villafaina, Santo, Violante, Francesco S, Vladimirov, Sergey Konstantinovitch, Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Vosoughi, Kia, Vujcic, Isidora S, Wagnew, Fasil Shiferaw, Waheed, Yasir, 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Subjects
Male, Health Status, health statu, HALE, mortality rate, communicable disease, DALYs, Global Burden of Disease, Risk Factors, Prevalence, Medicine and Health Sciences, Singapore, OUTCOMES, disability-adjusted life year, international cooperation, Medicine (all), 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Central African Republic, newborn disease, IRON-DEFICIENCY, AIDS, priority journal, Bahrain, disease severity, Female, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, cerebrovascular accident, Ukraine, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, INTERVENTIONS, Slovakia, DISORDERS, Burundi, WEIGHTS, GBD 2017 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, Communicable Diseases, Article, STYLE, Medicine, General & Internal, Life Expectancy, General & Internal Medicine, Humans, Disabled Persons, human, Healthy Lifestyle, HALE, DALYs, global burden of disease, Mortality, Aged, Science & Technology, Mortality, Premature, HIV, ischemic heart disease, major clinical study, PREVENTION, non communicable disease, GBD, disability-adjusted life-years, age, sex factor, Socioeconomic Factors, Algeria, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, lower respiratory tract infection, Wounds and Injuries, GENDER, Human medicine, trend study, chronic obstructive lung disease
Abstract

Background How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7.4 years (95% uncertainty interval 74-7.8), from 65.6 years (65.3-65- 8) in 1990 to 73.0 years (72.7-73.3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5.1 years (5.0-5.3) in high SDI countries to 12.0 years (11.3-12.8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26.3% (20.1-33.1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11.7% (8.8-15.1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6.3 years (5.9-6.7), from 57.0 years (54.6-59.1) in 1990 to 63.3 years (60.5-65.7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3.8 years (3.4-4.1) in high SDI countries to 10.5 years (9.8-11.2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1.0 year (0.4-1.7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62.4 years [59.9-64.7] in 1990 to 63.5 years [60.9-65.8] in 2017) to 23.7 years (21.9-25.6) in Eritrea (30.7 years [28.9-32.2] in 1990 to 54.4 years [51.5-57.1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1.4 years (0.6-2.3) in Algeria to 11.9 years (10.9-12.9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75.8 years [72.4-78.7]) and males (72.6 years [69 " 8-75.0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47.0 years [43.7-50.2] for females and 42.8 years [40.1-45.6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41.3% (38.8-43.5) for communicable diseases and by 49"8% (47.9-51.6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40.1% (36.8-43.0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18.1% (16.0-20.2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low S DI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

25. Breast Cancer Diagnosis in Digital Mammography Images Using Automatic Detection for the Region of Interest

Author

Saleem Z. Ramadan and Mahmoud El-Banna

Subjects
Digital mammography, Support Vector Machine, medicine.diagnostic_test, Receiver operating characteristic, business.industry, Computer science, Pattern recognition, Bayes Theorem, Breast Neoplasms, medicine.disease, Logistic regression, Support vector machine, Naive Bayes classifier, Breast cancer, ROC Curve, Region of interest, medicine, Mammography, Humans, Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging, Artificial intelligence, business
Abstract

Background: One of the early screening methods of breast cancer that is still used today is mammogram due to its low cost. Unfortunately, this low cost accompanied with low performance rate also. Methods: The low performance rate in mammograms is associated with low capability in determining the best region from which the features are extracted. Therefore, we offer an automatic method to detect the Region of Interest in the mammograms based on maximizing the area under receiver operating characteristic curve utilizing Genetic Algorithms. : The proposed method had been applied to the MIAS mammographic database, which is widely used in literature. Its performance had been evaluated using four different classifiers; Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbor and Logistic Regression classifiers. Results & Conclusion: The results showed good classification performances for all the classifiers used due to the rich information contained in the features extracted from the automatically selected Region of Interest.

Published
2019

26. Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))

Author

Stanaway, J.D. Afshin, A. Gakidou, E. Lim, S.S. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adane, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Agarwal, G. Aggarwal, A. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, S. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Ali, K. Ali, S.M. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antó, J.M. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Ball, K. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bjørge, T. Blacker, B.F. Bleyer, A. Borschmann, R. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Burnett, R.T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahill, L.E. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Cárdenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Causey, K. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chang, K.-L. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chee, M.L. Cheng, C.-Y. Chew, A. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, O.R. Coresh, J. Cornaby, L. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cundiff, D.K. Daba, A.K. Dachew, B.A. Dadi, A.F. Damasceno, A.A.M. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Darby, S.C. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De la Cruz-Góngora, V. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Deshpande, A. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Deveber, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Diro, H.D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebert, N. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Estep, K. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzaei, M.H. Fatima, B. Fay, K.A. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrara, G. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Gamkrelidze, A. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K.G. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Godwin, W.W. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Goulart, A.C. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutiérrez, R.A. Gutiérrez-Torres, D.S. Haagsma, J.A. Habtewold, T.D. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Higazi, T.B. Hilawe, E.H. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Hu, H. Huang, J.J. Hussen, M.A. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, N. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jackson, M.D. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Kant, S. Kar, C. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B.K. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, G. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khazaei, M. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knibbs, L.D. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kromhout, H. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Larson, S.L. Latifi, A. Lazarus, J.V. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Linn, S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Machado, Í.E. Madotto, F. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Meier, T. Mekonnen, F.A. Melaku, Y.A. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Momeniha, F. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Mozaffarian, D. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Neal, B. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nichols, E. Nie, J. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nishi, N. Nixon, M.R. Nojomi, M. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Orpana, H.M. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Paz Ballesteros, W.C. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pischon, T. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Polkinghorne, K.R. Postma, M.J. Poulton, R. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Raju, S.B. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rath, G.K. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Rehm, C.D. Rehm, J. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rivera, J.A. Roba, K.T. Rodríguez-Ramírez, S. Roever, L. Román, Y. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Rushton, L. Sabanayagam, C. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, D.D. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Sánchez-Pimienta, T.G. Sanders, T. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serre, M.L. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaddick, G. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shamah Levy, T. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharifi, H. Sharma, J. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shin, M.-J. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shupler, M.S. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Somayaji, R. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Starodubov, V.I. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stein, M.B. Stevanovic, G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Sturua, L. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, H.J. Thomas, M.L. Thomas, N. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. Tillmann, T. To, Q.G. Tobollik, M. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venkateswaran, V. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vu, G.T. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.H. Weldegebreal, F. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, J.J. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wong, T.Y. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, H. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Risk Factor Collaborators

Abstract

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2019

27. Mortality, morbidity, and hospitalisations due to influenza lower respiratory tract infections, 2017: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Troeger C, Blacker B, Khalil I, Zimsen S, Albertson S, Abate D, Abdela J, Adhikari T, Aghayan S, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Aichour A, Aichour I, Aichour M, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi R, Alahdab F, Alene K, Aljunid S, Alvis-Guzman N, Anber N, Anjomshoa M, Antonio C, Aremu O, Atalay H, Atique S, Attia E, Avokpaho E, Awasthi A, Babazadeh A, Badali H, Badawi A, Banoub J, Barac A, Bassat Q, Bedi N, Belachew A, Bennett D, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta Z, Bijani A, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela C, Christopher D, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang A, Daryani A, Degefa M, Demeke F, Dhimal M, Djalalinia S, Doku D, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken E, Edessa D, Zaki M, Fakhim H, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Flor L, Foreman K, Gebremichael T, Geremew D, Ghadiri K, Goulart A, Guo J, Ha G, Hailu G, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamidi S, Hassen H, Hoang C, Horita N, Hostiuc M, Irvani S, Jha R, Jonas J, Kahsay A, Karch A, Kasaeian A, Kassa T, Kefale A, Khader Y, Khan E, Khan G, Khan M, Khang Y, Khoja A, Khubchandani J, Kimokoti R, Kisa A, Knibbs L, Kochhar S, Kosen S, Koul P, Koyanagi A, Defo B, Kumar G, Lal D, Lamichhane P, Leshargie C, Levi M, Li S, Macarayan E, Majdan M, Mehta V, Melese A, Memish Z, Mengistu D, Meretoja T, Mestrovic T, Miazgowski B, Milne G, Milosevic B, Mirrakhimov E, Moazen B, Mohammad K, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Morawska L, Mousavi S, Muhammed O, Murthy S, Mustafa G, Naheed A, Nguyen H, Nguyen N, Nguyen S, Nguyen T, Nisar M, Nixon M, Ogbo F, Olagunju A, Olagunju T, Oren E, Ortiz J, Mahesh P, Pakhale S, Patel S, Paudel D, Pigott D, Postma M, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rai R, Rezai M, Roberts N, Ronfani L, Rubino S, Safari S, Safiri S, Saleem Z, Sambala E, Samy A, Milicevic M, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Seyedmousavi S, Shaikh M, Sharif M, Sheikh A, Shigematsu M, Smith D, Somayaji R, Soriano J, Sreeramareddy C, Sufiyan M, Temsah M, Tessema B, Teweldemedhin M, Tortajada-Girbes M, Tran B, Tran K, Tsadik A, Ukwaja K, Ullah I, Vasankari T, Vollset S, Vu G, Wada F, Waheed Y, West T, Wiysonge C, Yimer E, Yonemoto N, Zaidi Z, Vos T, Lim S, Murray C, Mokdad A, Hay S, Reiner R, and GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators

Subjects
PNEUMONIA, AFRICA, Adult, Male, BACTERIAL, Internationality, Adolescent, Respiratory System, CHILDREN, Global Health, Global Burden of Disease, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, Young Adult, Age Distribution, Critical Care Medicine, Risk Factors, General & Internal Medicine, VACCINES, Influenza, Human, GBD 2017 Influenza Collaborators, Humans, Child, Respiratory Tract Infections, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Science & Technology, Incidence, Infant, 1103 Clinical Sciences, Length of Stay, Middle Aged, Hospitalization, Child, Preschool, VACCINATION, Female, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, 1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences
Abstract

Background Although the burden of influenza is often discussed in the context of historical pandemics and the threat of future pandemics, every year a substantial burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) and other respiratory conditions (like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are attributable to seasonal influenza. The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 is a systematic scientific effort to quantify the health loss associated with a comprehensive set of diseases and disabilities. In this Article, we focus on LRTIs that can be attributed to influenza. Methods We modelled the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality attributable to influenza for every country and selected subnational locations by age and year from 1990 to 2017 as part of GBD 2017. We used a counterfactual approach that first estimated the LRTI incidence, hospitalisations, and mortality and then attributed a fraction of those outcomes to influenza. Findings Influenza LRTI was responsible for an estimated 145 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99 000-200 000) deaths among all ages in 2017. The influenza LRTI mortality rate was highest among adults older than 70 years (16.4 deaths per 100 000 [95% UI 11.6-21.9]), and the highest rate among all ages was in eastern Europe (5.2 per 100 000 population [95% UI 3.5-7.2]). We estimated that influenza LRTIs accounted for 9 459 000 (95% UI 3 709 000-22 935 000) hospitalisations due to LRTIs and 81 536 000 hospital days (24 330 000-259 851 000). We estimated that 11.5% (95% UI 10.0-12.9) of LRTI episodes were attributable to influenza, corresponding to 54 481 000 (38 465 000-73 864 000) episodes and 8 172 000 severe episodes (5 000 000-13 296 000). Interpretation This comprehensive assessment of the burden of influenza LRTIs shows the substantial annual effect of influenza on global health. Although preparedness planning will be important for potential pandemics, health loss due to seasonal influenza LRTIs should not be overlooked, and vaccine use should be considered. Efforts to improve influenza prevention measures are needed. Copyright (c) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Published
2018

28. Impact of Diabetes Mellitus on Outcomes in Patients with Left Ventricular Assist Devices

Author

William Crugnola, Andrew Cinquina, Daniel Mattimore, Savannah Bitzas, Jonathon Schwartz, Saleem Zaidi, and Sergio D. Bergese

Subjects
left ventricular assist device, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, Biology (General), QH301-705.5
Abstract

Heart failure (HF) represents a significant health burden in the United States, resulting in substantial mortality and healthcare costs. Through the array of treatment options available, including lifestyle modifications, medications, and implantable devices, HF management has evolved. Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) have emerged as a crucial intervention, particularly in patients with advanced HF. However, the prevalence of comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus (DM) complicates treatment outcomes. By elucidating the impact of DM on LVAD outcomes, this review aims to inform clinical practice and enhance patient care strategies for individuals undergoing LVAD therapy. Patients with DM have higher rates of hypertension, dyslipidemia, peripheral vascular disease, and renal dysfunction, posing challenges to LVAD management. The macro/microvascular changes that occur in DM can lead to cardiomyopathy and HF. Glycemic control post LVAD implantation is a critical factor affecting patient outcomes. The recent literature has shown significant decreases in hemoglobin A1c following LVAD implantation, representing a possible bidirectional relationship between DM and LVADs; however, the clinical significance of this decrease is unclear. Furthermore, while some studies show increased short- and long-term mortality in patients with DM after LVAD implantation, there still is no literature consensus regarding either mortality or major adverse outcomes in DM patients.

Published
2024
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32. Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))

Author

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators Roth, G.A. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adib, M.G. Admasie, A. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akbari, M.E. Akinyemi, R.O. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Aremu, O. Arnlov, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Bacha, U. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Banach, M. Banerjee, K. Bannick, M.S. Banoub, J.A.M. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Barnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bassat, Q. Basu, S. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bejot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, E. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhalla, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Blacker, B.F. Basara, B.B. Borschmann, R. Bosetti, C. Bozorgmehr, K. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Cano, J. Car, M. Cardenas, R. Carreras, G. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castaneda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castle, C.D. Castro, C. Castro, F. Catala-Lopez, F. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chimed-Ochir, O. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Cohen, A.J. Cooper, L.T. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Cousin, E. Cowie, B.C. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Crump, J.A. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Gupta, R.D. Neves, J.D. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davis Weaver, N. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. De La Hoz, F.P. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B.B. Denova-Gutierrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Donnelly, C.A. Dorsey, E.R. Doshi, P.P. Douwes-Schultz, D. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Eggen, A.E. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Ellingsen, C.L. Endres, M. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esmaeili, R. Esteghamati, A. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farinha, C.S.E. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fornari, C. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fuller, J.E. Fullman, N. Furst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gallus, S. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Gibney, K.B. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Gillum, R.F. Ginawi, I.A. Giroud, M. Giussani, G. Goenka, S. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gomez-Dantes, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Grada, A. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gutierrez, R.A. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Hagos, T.B. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Henry, N.J. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, P. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoek, H.W. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Husseini, A. Hussen, M.M. Hutfless, S. Idrisov, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, N. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. James, S.L. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jenkins, K.J. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jurisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kazemi, Z. Kazemi Karyani, A. Kazi, D.S. Kefale, A.T. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khater, M.M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kibret, G.D. Kidanemariam, Z.T. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimaki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kuzin, I. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lam, J.O. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Lebedev, G. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leili, M. Leshargie, C.T. Li, S. Li, Y. Liang, J. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Lonsdale, C. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lozano, R. Lunevicius, R. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. MacLachlan, J.H. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marczak, L. Marks, A. Marks, G.B. Martinez, G. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Marz, W. Marzan, M.B. Masci, J.R. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Mathur, P. Matzopoulos, R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, V. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velasquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Nair, S. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, T.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. 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Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rothenbacher, D. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Jose, B.P.S. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suarez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schottker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Servan-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silberberg, D.H. Santos Silva, D.A. Silva, J.P. Da Silva, N.T. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, P.K. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Stewart, L.G. Stokes, M.A. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabares-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Takahashi, K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Taveira, N. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Tessema, B. Tessema, G.A. Thankappan, K.R. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Thrift, A.G. Thurston, G.D. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbes, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tripathi, S. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Truong, N.T. Tsadik, A.G. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Murat Tuzcu, E. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wallin, M.T. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yakob, B. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yentur, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, K. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zuhlke, L.J. Naghavi, M. Murray, C.J.L.

Abstract

GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

Published
2018

33. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Lozano, R. Fullman, N. Abate, D. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, N.D. Abebe, Z. Abejie, A.N. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M. Abyu, G.Y. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adedoyin, R.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshari, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Aghayan, S.A. Agius, D. Agrawal, A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Akalu, T.Y. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alam, T. Albujeer, A. Alebel, A. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Alhabib, S. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Allen, C.A. Almasi, A. Al-Maskari, F. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Amenu, K. Amini, E. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Anderson, J.A. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansari, H. Ansariadi, A. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Appiah, L.T. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, M. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Asghar, R.J. Assadi, R. Ataro, Z. Atique, S. Atre, S.R. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Quintanilla, B.P.A. Ayele, H.T. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Azarpazhooh, M.R. Azzopardi, P.S. Azzopardi-Muscat, N. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banerjee, A. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Barthelemy, C.M. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Basu, S. Battista, R.J. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Benzian, H. Berhane, A. Berhe, A.K. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhalla, A. Bhansali, A. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Sayeed, M.S.B. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. Bisanzio, D. Biswas, T. Bitew, H. Bizuneh, H. Bjertness, E. Bobasa, E.M. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Bozorgmehr, K. Bragazzi, N.L. Brainin, M. Brant, L.C. Brauer, M. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Briant, P.S. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Bukhman, G. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Campos-Nonato, I.R. Rincon, J.C.C. Cano, J. Car, J. Car, M. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Rivas, J.C. Castro, F. Causey, K. Çavlin, A. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chalek, J. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chisumpa, V.H. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Chung, S.-C. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Claßen, T.K.D. Cohen, A.J. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Cooper, L.T. Cornaby, L. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Cromwell, E.A. Crowe, C.S. Cunningham, M. Daba, A.K. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dang, A.K. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das, S.K. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Dash, A.P. Davis, A.C. Davitoiu, D.V. Davletov, K. Dayama, A. De Courten, B. De Leo, D. Neve, J.W.D. De Steur, H. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Degfie, T.T. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Demtsu, B. Denova-Gutiérrez, E. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dhimal, M. Dicker, D. Dinberu, M.T. Ding, E.L. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Douwes-Schultz, D. Driscoll, T.R. Duan, L. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimpour, S. Edvardsson, D. El Bcheraoui, C. Eldrenkamp, E. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Estep, K. Fakhar, M. Fakhim, H. Fanzo, J. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Farinha, C.S.E.S. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Farzaei, M.H. Farzam, H. Fazaeli, A.A. Fazeli, M.S. Feigin, V.L. Feigl, A.B. Fekadu, W. Feldman, R. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Feyissa, G.T. Fijabi, D.O. Filip, I. Finegold, S. Finger, J.D. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Flor, L.S. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Franklin, R.C. Fukumoto, T. Fukutaki, K. Fuller, J.E. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gallus, S. Gankpe, F.G. Gansevoort, R.T. Garcia, A.C. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Garcia-Gordillo, M.A. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebre, T. Gebregergs, G.B. Gebrehiwot, T.T. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, B. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Geramo, Y.C.D. Getachew, S. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadimi, R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghiasvand, H. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gona, P.N. Goodridge, A. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goto, A. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Griswold, M.G. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C.C. Guillemin, F. Guimaraes, A.L.S. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Ha, G.H. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Bidgoli, H.H. Hagos, T.B. Haile, M.T. Hailegiyorgis, T.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Hankey, G.J. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haririan, H. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, S.I. He, Y. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Hegazy, M.I. Heibati, B. Heidari, B. Heidari, M. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Heredia-Pi, I. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, B. Heydarpour, F. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Híjar, M. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, D.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Horita, N. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Hsiao, T. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Hughes, C. Huynh, C.K. Igumbor, E.U. Ikeda, C.T. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Islam, S.M.S. Islami, F. Ivers, R.Q. Izadi, N. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Jalu, M.T. Jamal, A.A. James, S.L. Jassal, S.K. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Johnson, S.C. Jonas, J.B. Jonnagaddala, J. Shushtari, Z.J. Joshi, A. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Madhanraj, K. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kahssay, M. Kalani, R. Kapil, U. Karami, M. Matin, B.K. Karanikolos, M. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Karimi-Sari, H. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassa, Z.Y. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kaul, A. Kawakami, N. Kazemi, Z. Karyani, A.K. Kazi, D.S. Prakash, K.C. Kebede, S. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Kesavachandran, C.N. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalid, N. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khanna, T. Khater, M.M. Khatony, A. Khazaeipour, Z. Khazaie, H. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Khubchandani, J. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiarie, H.W. Kibret, G.D. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, D. Kim, J.Y. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kinra, S. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kissoon, N. Kivimäki, M. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosek, M.N. Kosen, S. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Defo, B.K. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kudom, A.A. Kulikoff, X.R. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kumar, P. Kutz, M.J. Kyu, H.H. Lachat, C. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lagat, A.K. Lal, D.K. Lalloo, R. Lam, H. Lami, F.H. Lamichhane, P. Lan, Q. Lang, J.J. Lansingh, V.C. Lansky, S. Larson, H.J. Larsson, A.O. Laryea, D.O. Lassi, Z.S. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Laxmaiah, A. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Lebedev, G. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, J.B. Lee, P.H. Leever, A.T. Leigh, J. Leinsalu, M. Leshargie, C.T. Leung, J. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, X. Li, Y. Liang, J. Liang, X. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Limenih, M.A. Linn, S. Liu, S. Liu, Y. Lodha, R. Logroscino, G. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Lucchesi, L.R. Lyons, R.A. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Maddison, E.R. Madotto, F. Maghavani, D.P. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahotra, N.B. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Mandarano-Filho, L.G. Mangalam, S. Manguerra, H. Mansournia, M.A. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martin, R.V. Martins, S.C.O. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Mekonnen, T.C.C. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mensink, G.B.M. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Milne, G.J. Mini, G.K. Minnig, S.P. Mirabi, P. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Moazen, B. Moghadamnia, A.A. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohan, M.B.V. Mohan, V. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Morgado-da-Costa, J. Morisaki, N. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mountjoy-Venning, W.C. Mouodi, S. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Mullany, E.C. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Murthy, G.V.S. Murthy, S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nabhan, A.F. Nachega, J.B. Nagarajan, A.J. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naidoo, K. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, M. Nichols, E. Nigatu, S.G. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, M. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyasulu, P.S. Obermeyer, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, K.E. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oommen, A.M. Opio, J.N. Oren, E. Oros, A. Ortega-Altamirano, D.D.V. Ortiz, A. Ortiz, J.R. Ortiz-Panozo, E. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pan, W.-H. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandian, J.D. Papantoniou, N. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pervaiz, A. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Pletcher, M. Pond, C.D. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Pyakurel, M. Qorbani, M. Quansah, R. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.S. Rahman, M.H.U. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Rana, S.M. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Razo-García, C. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reis, C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Reynales-Shigematsu, L.M. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. De Freitas Saldanha, R. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Niño, M.D. Santos, I.S. Milicevic, M.M.S. Jose, B.P.S. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Savic, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Sayyah, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Seedat, S. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shackelford, K.A. Shafieesabet, A. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M.B. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. Sharma, S.K. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shey, M.S. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shields, C. Shifa, G.T. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shirude, S. Shishani, K. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Shukla, S.R. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Silpakit, N. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Da Silva, N.T. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, O.P. Singh, P.K. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Sliwa, K. Smith, A.E. Smith, M. Filho, A.M.S. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soljak, M. Soofi, M. Soosaraei, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soshnikov, S. Soyiri, I.N. Spinelli, A. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, R.G. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stathopoulou, V. Steckling, N. Stein, D.J. Stewart, L.G. Stockfelt, L. Stokes, M.A. Straif, K. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tamirat, K.S. Tandon, N. Tanser, F.C. Tassew, A.A. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Tawye, N.Y. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teshale, M.Y. Teshome, D.F. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thakur, J.S. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, L.A. Thomas, N. Thomson, A.J. Thrift, A.G. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tobe-Gai, R. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Tran, T.T. Tripathy, S.P. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Tsadik, A.G. Car, L.T. Tuzcu, E.M. Tymeson, H.D. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Van Donkelaar, A. Varavikova, E. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Vidavalur, R. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollmer, S. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagner, G.R. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Wassie, M.M. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Werkneh, A.A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whisnant, J.L. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolde, H.F. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Xu, R. Yadollahpour, A. Jabbari, S.H.Y. Yakob, B. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yearwood, J.A. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yirsaw, B.D. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yonga, G. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zavala-Arciniega, L. Zegeye, D.T. Zegeye, E.A. Zeleke, A.J. Zendehdel, K. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, A.L. Zhang, X. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J.J. Lim, S.S. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 SDG Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

34. Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Murray, C.J.L. Callender, C.S.K.H. Kulikoff, X.R. Srinivasan, V. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdel-Rahman, O. Abdi, A. Abdoli, N. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, H.T. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abebo, T.A. Abejie, A.N. Aboyans, V. Abraha, H.N. Abreu, D.M.X. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, P. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adedeji, I.A. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adhena, B.M. Adhikari, T.B. Adib, M.G. Adou, A.K. Adsuar, J.C. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akanda, A.S. Akbari, M.E. Akibu, M. Akinyemi, R.O. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Alahdab, F. Al-Aly, Z. Alam, K. Alebel, A. Aleman, A.V. Alene, K.A. Al-Eyadhy, A. Ali, R. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Almasi, A. Alonso, J. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Ammar, W. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Ansari, H. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Appiah, S.C.Y. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Arian, N. Ärnlöv, J. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asfaw, E.T. Asgedom, S.W. Assadi, R. Atey, T.M.M. Atique, S. Atteraya, M.S. Ausloos, M. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayele, Y. Ayer, R. Ayuk, T.B. Azzopardi, P.S. Babalola, T.K. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Basaleem, H. Bassat, Q. Basu, A. Baune, B.T. Baynes, H.W. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belachew, A.B. Belay, A.G. Belay, E. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Bergeron, G. Berhane, A. Berman, A.E. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Bertolacci, G.J. Beuran, M. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Birlik, S.M. Birungi, C. 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Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Marami, D. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marina, S. Martins-Melo, F.R. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Masiye, F. Mason-Jones, A.J. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McGrath, J.J. Mehata, S. Mehendale, S.M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehrzadi, S. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mekonnen, T.C. Meles, H.G. Meles, K.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengesha, M.M. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezgebe, H.B. Miangotar, Y. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Miller, T.R. Miller-Petrie, M.K. Mini, G.K. Mirabi, P. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Moazen, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mokdad, A.H. Mola, G.D. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montañez, J.C. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Mori, R. Morrison, S.D. Mosapour, A. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Mukhopadhyay, S. Murphy, T.B. Muller, K. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nachega, J.B. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, P. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Nawaz, H. Ncama, B.P. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngalesoni, F.N. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nirayo, Y.L. Nisar, M.I. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nyandwi, A. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogah, O.S. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, S.K. Ortiz, A. Osgood-Zimmerman, A. Ota, E. Otieno, B.A. Otstavnov, S.S. Owolabi, M.O. Oyekale, A.S. Mahesh, P.A. Pakhale, S. Pakhare, A.P. Pana, A. Panda, B.K. Panda-Jonas, S. Pandey, A.R. Park, E.-K. Parsian, H. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Pedroso, M.M. Peprah, E.K. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petri, W.A. Petzold, M. Pierce, M. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Pirsaheb, M. Polanczyk, G.V. Postma, M.J. Pourmalek, F. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prakash, S. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Quansah, R. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Rahman, M.S. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Ur Rahman, S. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Rajsic, S. Ram, U. Ranabhat, C.L. Ranjan, P. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Ray, S.E. Razo-García, C. Reiner, R.C. Reis, C. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezaeian, S. Rezai, M.S. Riahi, S.M. Rios-Blancas, M.J. Roba, K.T. Roberts, N.L.S. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Rubagotti, E. Ruhago, G.M. Sabde, Y.D. Sachdev, P.S. Saddik, B. Moghaddam, S.S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. 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Tsilimparis, N. Car, L.T. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Uzun, S.B. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Vaidya, G. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Vasconcelos, A.M.N. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Walson, J.L. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H. Widecka, J. Widecka, K. Wijeratne, T. Winkler, A.S. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Wu, S. Wyper, G.M.A. Xu, G. Yamada, T. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Ye, P. Yentür, G.K. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, M.M. Zenebe, Z.M. Zerfu, T.A. Zhang, X. Zhao, X.-J. Zhou, M. Zhu, J. Zimsen, S.R.M. Zodpey, S. Zoeckler, L. Lopez, A.D. Lim, S.S. GBD 2017 Population Fertility Collaborators

Abstract

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

Published
2018

35. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

Kyu, H.H. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, M. Abebe, Z. Abil, O.Z. Aboyans, V. Abrham, A.R. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Ademi, Z. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, A. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Ahmed, S. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alonso, J. Alsharif, U. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Aminde, L.N. Amini, E. Amiresmaili, M. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Arora, M. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Ataro, Z. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Balakrishnan, K. Bali, A.G. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barquera, S. Barrero, L.H. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Bekru, E.T. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bennett, D.A. Bensenor, I.M. Berhane, A. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhatt, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Biehl, M.H. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Bjorge, T. Bleyer, A. Bobasa, E.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brant, L.C. Brayne, C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. 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Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Echko, M.M. Edessa, D. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Eggen, A.E. Ehrlich, J.R. El Bcheraoui, C. El-Khatib, Z. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endalifer, M.L. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhim, H. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Sá Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farzadfar, F. Fazaeli, A.A. Feigin, V.L. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Ferreira, M.L. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Gakidou, E. Gall, S. Gallus, S. Ganji, M. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadami, M.R. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghoshal, A.G. Gill, P.S. 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Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. McMahon, B.J. Mehata, S. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirica, A. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Montanez, J.C. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi, M. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Velásquez, I.M. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murthy, G.V.S. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Nagel, G. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, G. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nomura, S. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Shiadeh, M.N. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Olusanya, J.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Overland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakhare, A.P. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Park, E.-K. Park, J. Parry, C.D.H. Parsian, H. Pasdar, Y. Patel, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paudel, D. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Pereira, A. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Petzold, M. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Polinder, S. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Prasad, N. Purcell, C.A. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi, Z. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Ranjan, P. Rao, P.C. Rasella, D. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezai, M.S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Roberts, N.L.S. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Rothenbacher, D. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Sadat, N. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salimzadeh, H. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sanchez-Nino, M.D. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarmiento-Suárez, R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schutte, A.E. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, J. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shiferaw, M.S. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shiue, I. Shokoohinia, Y. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Sibai, A.M. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Skirbekk, V. Sliwa, K. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Filho, A.M.S. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Soofi, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Starodubov, V.I. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Steiner, T.J. Stokes, M.A. Stovner, L.J. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sulo, G. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sykes, B.L. Sylaja, P.N. Sylte, D.O. Szoeke, C.E.I. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tabuchi, T. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Taylor, H.R. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Tessema, B. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Theis, A. Thirunavukkarasu, S. Thomas, N. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Troeger, C.E. Tsadik, A.G. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Tyrovolas, S. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varavikova, E. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vos, T. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Westerman, R. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Williams, H.C. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zandian, H. Zar, H.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zipkin, B. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Zuhlke, L.J. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 DALYs HALE Collaborators

Abstract

Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2018

36. Joint X- and S2 Control Charts Optimal Design Using Genetic Algorithm

Author

Saleem Z. Ramadan

Subjects
Article Subject, lcsh:TA1-2040, lcsh:Mathematics, lcsh:Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), lcsh:QA1-939
Abstract

A simple and flexible model for economic statistical design of joint X- and S2 control charts was proposed. The design problem was approached by constrained fuzzy multiobjective modeling for three objectives: joint power, joint Type I error, and joint total control cost. Fuzzy membership functions were created to measure the satisfaction levels of the objectives, and the overall satisfaction level of the design was calculated using a weighted-average method. A genetic algorithm was designed to solve this model. The strength of this model lies in its effectiveness in detecting the assignable causes through the joint design and in its simplicity and flexibility in dealing with uncertainties in the design.

Published
2018
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37. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, S.L. Abate, D. Abate, K.H. Abay, S.M. Abbafati, C. Abbasi, N. Abbastabar, H. Abd-Allah, F. Abdela, J. Abdelalim, A. Abdollahpour, I. Abdulkader, R.S. Abebe, Z. Abera, S.F. Abil, O.Z. Abraha, H.N. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abu-Rmeileh, N.M.E. Accrombessi, M.M.K. Acharya, D. Acharya, P. Ackerman, I.N. Adamu, A.A. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Adib, M.G. Adsuar, J.C. Afanvi, K.A. Afarideh, M. Afshin, A. Agarwal, G. Agesa, K.M. Aggarwal, R. Aghayan, S.A. Agrawal, S. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, M. Ahmadieh, H. Ahmed, M.B. Aichour, A.N. Aichour, I. Aichour, M.T.E. Akinyemiju, T. Akseer, N. Al-Aly, Z. Al-Eyadhy, A. Al-Mekhlafi, H.M. Al-Raddadi, R.M. Alahdab, F. Alam, K. Alam, T. Alashi, A. Alavian, S.M. Alene, K.A. Alijanzadeh, M. Alizadeh-Navaei, R. Aljunid, S.M. Alkerwi, A. Alla, F. Allebeck, P. Alouani, M.M.L. Altirkawi, K. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amare, A.T. Aminde, L.N. Ammar, W. Amoako, Y.A. Anber, N.H. Andrei, C.L. Androudi, S. Animut, M.D. Anjomshoa, M. Ansha, M.G. Antonio, C.A.T. Anwari, P. Arabloo, J. Arauz, A. Aremu, O. Ariani, F. Armoon, B. Ärnlöv, J. Arora, A. Artaman, A. Aryal, K.K. Asayesh, H. Asghar, R.J. Ataro, Z. Atre, S.R. Ausloos, M. Avila-Burgos, L. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Ayala Quintanilla, B.P. Ayer, R. Azzopardi, P.S. Babazadeh, A. Badali, H. Badawi, A. Bali, A.G. Ballesteros, K.E. Ballew, S.H. Banach, M. Banoub, J.A.M. Banstola, A. Barac, A. Barboza, M.A. Barker-Collo, S.L. Bärnighausen, T.W. Barrero, L.H. Baune, B.T. Bazargan-Hejazi, S. Bedi, N. Beghi, E. Behzadifar, M. Behzadifar, M. Béjot, Y. Belachew, A.B. Belay, Y.A. Bell, M.L. Bello, A.K. Bensenor, I.M. Bernabe, E. Bernstein, R.S. Beuran, M. Beyranvand, T. Bhala, N. Bhattarai, S. Bhaumik, S. Bhutta, Z.A. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Bikbov, B. Bilano, V. Bililign, N. Bin Sayeed, M.S. Bisanzio, D. Blacker, B.F. Blyth, F.M. Bou-Orm, I.R. Boufous, S. Bourne, R. Brady, O.J. Brainin, M. Brant, L.C. Brazinova, A. Breitborde, N.J.K. Brenner, H. Briant, P.S. Briggs, A.M. Briko, A.N. Britton, G. Brugha, T. Buchbinder, R. Busse, R. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Cano, J. Cárdenas, R. Carrero, J.J. Carter, A. Carvalho, F. Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A. Castillo Rivas, J. Castro, F. Catalá-López, F. Cercy, K.M. Cerin, E. Chaiah, Y. Chang, A.R. Chang, H.-Y. Chang, J.-C. Charlson, F.J. Chattopadhyay, A. Chattu, V.K. Chaturvedi, P. Chiang, P.P.-C. Chin, K.L. Chitheer, A. Choi, J.-Y.J. Chowdhury, R. Christensen, H. Christopher, D.J. Cicuttini, F.M. Ciobanu, L.G. Cirillo, M. Claro, R.M. Collado-Mateo, D. Cooper, C. Coresh, J. Cortesi, P.A. Cortinovis, M. Costa, M. Cousin, E. Criqui, M.H. Cromwell, E.A. Cross, M. Crump, J.A. Dadi, A.F. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Dargan, P.I. Daryani, A. Das Gupta, R. Das Neves, J. Dasa, T.T. Davey, G. Davis, A.C. Davitoiu, D.V. De Courten, B. De La Hoz, F.P. De Leo, D. De Neve, J.-W. Degefa, M.G. Degenhardt, L. Deiparine, S. Dellavalle, R.P. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Dervenis, N. Des Jarlais, D.C. Dessie, G.A. Dey, S. Dharmaratne, S.D. Dinberu, M.T. Dirac, M.A. Djalalinia, S. Doan, L. Dokova, K. Doku, D.T. Dorsey, E.R. Doyle, K.E. Driscoll, T.R. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duncan, B.B. Duraes, A.R. Ebrahimi, H. Ebrahimpour, S. Echko, M.M. Edvardsson, D. Effiong, A. Ehrlich, J.R. El Bcheraoui, C. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Khatib, Z. Elkout, H. Elyazar, I.R.F. Enayati, A. Endries, A.Y. Er, B. Erskine, H.E. Eshrati, B. Eskandarieh, S. Esteghamati, A. Esteghamati, S. Fakhim, H. Fallah Omrani, V. Faramarzi, M. Fareed, M. Farhadi, F. Farid, T.A. Farinha, C.S.E. Farioli, A. Faro, A. Farvid, M.S. Farzadfar, F. Feigin, V.L. Fentahun, N. Fereshtehnejad, S.-M. Fernandes, E. Fernandes, J.C. Ferrari, A.J. Feyissa, G.T. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Fitzmaurice, C. Foigt, N.A. Foreman, K.J. Fox, J. Frank, T.D. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Fürst, T. Furtado, J.M. Futran, N.D. Gall, S. Ganji, M. Gankpe, F.G. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gardner, W.M. Gebre, A.K. Gebremedhin, A.T. Gebremichael, T.G. Gelano, T.F. Geleijnse, J.M. Genova-Maleras, R. Geramo, Y.C.D. Gething, P.W. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghasemi Falavarjani, K. Ghasemi-Kasman, M. Ghimire, M. Ghosh, R. Ghoshal, A.G. Giampaoli, S. Gill, P.S. Gill, T.K. Ginawi, I.A. Giussani, G. Gnedovskaya, E.V. Goldberg, E.M. Goli, S. Gómez-Dantés, H. Gona, P.N. Gopalani, S.V. Gorman, T.M. Goulart, A.C. Goulart, B.N.G. Grada, A. Grams, M.E. Grosso, G. Gugnani, H.C. Guo, Y. Gupta, P.C. Gupta, R. Gupta, R. Gupta, T. Gyawali, B. Haagsma, J.A. Hachinski, V. Hafezi-Nejad, N. Haghparast Bidgoli, H. Hagos, T.B. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamadeh, R.R. Hamidi, S. Handal, A.J. Hankey, G.J. Hao, Y. Harb, H.L. Harikrishnan, S. Haro, J.M. Hasan, M. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Havmoeller, R. Hawley, C.N. Hay, R.J. Hay, S.I. Hedayatizadeh-Omran, A. Heibati, B. Hendrie, D. Henok, A. Herteliu, C. Heydarpour, S. Hibstu, D.T. Hoang, H.T. Hoek, H.W. Hoffman, H.J. Hole, M.K. Homaie Rad, E. Hoogar, P. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseini, S.M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hostiuc, M. Hostiuc, S. Hotez, P.J. Hoy, D.G. Hsairi, M. Htet, A.S. Hu, G. Huang, J.J. Huynh, C.K. Iburg, K.M. Ikeda, C.T. Ileanu, B. Ilesanmi, O.S. Iqbal, U. Irvani, S.S.N. Irvine, C.M.S. Mohammed, S. Islam, S. Islami, F. Jacobsen, K.H. Jahangiry, L. Jahanmehr, N. Jain, S.K. Jakovljevic, M. Javanbakht, M. Jayatilleke, A.U. Jeemon, P. Jha, R.P. Jha, V. Ji, J.S. Johnson, C.O. Jonas, J.B. Jozwiak, J.J. Jungari, S.B. Jürisson, M. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kahsay, A. Kalani, R. Kanchan, T. Karami, M. Karami Matin, B. Karch, A. Karema, C. Karimi, N. Karimi, S.M. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, D.H. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kassebaum, N.J. Katikireddi, S.V. Kawakami, N. Kazemi Karyani, A. Keighobadi, M.M. Keiyoro, P.N. Kemmer, L. Kemp, G.R. Kengne, A.P. Keren, A. Khader, Y.S. Khafaei, B. Khafaie, M.A. Khajavi, A. Khalil, I.A. Khan, E.A. Khan, M.S. Khan, M.A. Khang, Y.-H. Khazaei, M. Khoja, A.T. Khosravi, A. Khosravi, M.H. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kiirithio, D.N. Kim, C.-I. Kim, D. Kim, P. Kim, Y.-E. Kim, Y.J. Kimokoti, R.W. Kinfu, Y. Kisa, A. Kissimova-Skarbek, K. Kivimäki, M. Knudsen, A.K.S. Kocarnik, J.M. Kochhar, S. Kokubo, Y. Kolola, T. Kopec, J.A. Kosen, S. Kotsakis, G.A. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kravchenko, M.A. Krishan, K. Krohn, K.J. Kuate Defo, B. Kucuk Bicer, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kyu, H.H. Lad, D.P. Lad, S.D. Lafranconi, A. Lalloo, R. Lallukka, T. Lami, F.H. Lansingh, V.C. Latifi, A. Lau, K.M.-M. Lazarus, J.V. Leasher, J.L. Ledesma, J.R. Lee, P.H. Leigh, J. Leung, J. Levi, M. Lewycka, S. Li, S. Li, Y. Liao, Y. Liben, M.L. Lim, L.-L. Lim, S.S. Liu, S. Lodha, R. Looker, K.J. Lopez, A.D. Lorkowski, S. Lotufo, P.A. Low, N. Lozano, R. Lucas, T.C.D. Lucchesi, L.R. Lunevicius, R. Lyons, R.A. Ma, S. Macarayan, E.R.K. Mackay, M.T. Madotto, F. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magdy Abd El Razek, M. Maghavani, D.P. Mahotra, N.B. Mai, H.T. Majdan, M. Majdzadeh, R. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Malta, D.C. Mamun, A.A. Manda, A.-L. Manguerra, H. Manhertz, T. Mansournia, M.A. Mantovani, L.G. Mapoma, C.C. Maravilla, J.C. Marcenes, W. Marks, A. Martins-Melo, F.R. Martopullo, I. März, W. Marzan, M.B. Mashamba-Thompson, T.P. Massenburg, B.B. Mathur, M.R. Matsushita, K. Maulik, P.K. Mazidi, M. McAlinden, C. McGrath, J.J. McKee, M. Mehndiratta, M.M. Mehrotra, R. Mehta, K.M. Mehta, V. Mejia-Rodriguez, F. Mekonen, T. Melese, A. Melku, M. Meltzer, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Mensah, G.A. Mereta, S.T. Meretoja, A. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Mezerji, N.M.G. Miazgowski, B. Miazgowski, T. Millear, A.I. Miller, T.R. Miltz, B. Mini, G.K. Mirarefin, M. Mirrakhimov, E.M. Misganaw, A.T. Mitchell, P.B. Mitiku, H. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammadifard, N. Mohammadnia-Afrouzi, M. Mohammed, M.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Moitra, M. Mokdad, A.H. Molokhia, M. Monasta, L. Moodley, Y. Moosazadeh, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moradinazar, M. Moraga, P. Morawska, L. Moreno Velásquez, I. Morgado-Da-Costa, J. Morrison, S.D. Moschos, M.M. Mousavi, S.M. Mruts, K.B. Muche, A.A. Muchie, K.F. Mueller, U.O. Muhammed, O.S. Mukhopadhyay, S. Muller, K. Mumford, J.E. Murhekar, M. Musa, J. Musa, K.I. Mustafa, G. Nabhan, A.F. Nagata, C. Naghavi, M. Naheed, A. Nahvijou, A. Naik, G. Naik, N. Najafi, F. Naldi, L. Nam, H.S. Nangia, V. Nansseu, J.R. Nascimento, B.R. Natarajan, G. Neamati, N. Negoi, I. Negoi, R.I. Neupane, S. Newton, C.R.J. Ngunjiri, J.W. Nguyen, A.Q. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, L.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, N.B. Nguyen, S.H. Nichols, E. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nolutshungu, N. Nomura, S. Norheim, O.F. Noroozi, M. Norrving, B. Noubiap, J.J. Nouri, H.R. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Nowroozi, M.R. Nsoesie, E.O. Nyasulu, P.S. Odell, C.M. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Oh, I.-H. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olivares, P.R. Olsen, H.E. Olusanya, B.O. Ong, K.L. Ong, S.K. Oren, E. Ortiz, A. Ota, E. Otstavnov, S.S. øverland, S. Owolabi, M.O. Mahesh, P.A. Pacella, R. Pakpour, A.H. Pana, A. Panda-Jonas, S. Parisi, A. Park, E.-K. Parry, C.D.H. Patel, S. Pati, S. Patil, S.T. Patle, A. Patton, G.C. Paturi, V.R. Paulson, K.R. Pearce, N. Pereira, D.M. Perico, N. Pesudovs, K. Pham, H.Q. Phillips, M.R. Pigott, D.M. Pillay, J.D. Piradov, M.A. Pirsaheb, M. Pishgar, F. Plana-Ripoll, O. Plass, D. Polinder, S. Popova, S. Postma, M.J. Pourshams, A. Poustchi, H. Prabhakaran, D. Prakash, S. Prakash, V. Purcell, C.A. Purwar, M.B. Qorbani, M. Quistberg, D.A. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi, K. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, M. Ur Rahman, M.H. Rahman, M.A. Rahman, S.U. Rai, R.K. Rajati, F. Ram, U. Ranjan, P. Ranta, A. Rao, P.C. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, S. Reddy, K.S. Reiner, R.C. Reinig, N. Reitsma, M.B. Remuzzi, G. Renzaho, A.M.N. Resnikoff, S. Rezaei, S. Rezai, M.S. Ribeiro, A.L.P. Robinson, S.R. Roever, L. Ronfani, L. Roshandel, G. Rostami, A. Roth, G.A. Roy, A. Rubagotti, E. Sachdev, P.S. Sadat, N. Saddik, B. Sadeghi, E. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, H. Safari, Y. Safari-Faramani, R. Safdarian, M. Safi, S. Safiri, S. Sagar, R. Sahebkar, A. Sahraian, M.A. Sajadi, H.S. Salam, N. Salama, J.S. Salamati, P. Saleem, K. Saleem, Z. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Salvi, S.S. Salz, I. Samy, A.M. Sanabria, J. Sang, Y. Santomauro, D.F. Santos, I.S. Santos, J.V. Santric Milicevic, M.M. Sao Jose, B.P. Sardana, M. Sarker, A.R. Sarrafzadegan, N. Sartorius, B. Sarvi, S. Sathian, B. Satpathy, M. Sawant, A.R. Sawhney, M. Saxena, S. Saylan, M. Schaeffner, E. Schmidt, M.I. Schneider, I.J.C. Schöttker, B. Schwebel, D.C. Schwendicke, F. Scott, J.G. Sekerija, M. Sepanlou, S.G. Serván-Mori, E. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shafieesabet, A. Shahbazi, M. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shams-Beyranvand, M. Shamsi, M. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharafi, H. Sharafi, K. Sharif, M. Sharif-Alhoseini, M. Sharma, M. Sharma, R. She, J. Sheikh, A. Shi, P. Shibuya, K. Shigematsu, M. Shiri, R. Shirkoohi, R. Shishani, K. Shiue, I. Shokraneh, F. Shoman, H. Shrime, M.G. Si, S. Siabani, S. Siddiqi, T.J. Sigfusdottir, I.D. Sigurvinsdottir, R. Silva, J.P. Silveira, D.G.A. Singam, N.S.V. Singh, J.A. Singh, N.P. Singh, V. Sinha, D.N. Skiadaresi, E. Slepak, E.L.N. Sliwa, K. Smith, D.L. Smith, M. Soares Filho, A.M. Sobaih, B.H. Sobhani, S. Sobngwi, E. Soneji, S.S. Soofi, M. Soosaraei, M. Sorensen, R.J.D. Soriano, J.B. Soyiri, I.N. Sposato, L.A. Sreeramareddy, C.T. Srinivasan, V. Stanaway, J.D. Stein, D.J. Steiner, C. Steiner, T.J. Stokes, M.A. Stovner, L.J. Subart, M.L. Sudaryanto, A. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sur, P.J. Sutradhar, I. Sykes, B.L. Sylte, D.O. Tabarés-Seisdedos, R. Tadakamadla, S.K. Tadesse, B.T. Tandon, N. Tassew, S.G. Tavakkoli, M. Taveira, N. Taylor, H.R. Tehrani-Banihashemi, A. Tekalign, T.G. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Tekle, M.G. Temesgen, H. Temsah, M.-H. Temsah, O. Terkawi, A.S. Teweldemedhin, M. Thankappan, K.R. Thomas, N. Tilahun, B. To, Q.G. Tonelli, M. Topor-Madry, R. Topouzis, F. Torre, A.E. Tortajada-Girbés, M. Touvier, M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Towbin, J.A. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Troeger, C.E. Truelsen, T.C. Tsilimbaris, M.K. Tsoi, D. Tudor Car, L. Tuzcu, E.M. Ukwaja, K.N. Ullah, I. Undurraga, E.A. Unutzer, J. Updike, R.L. Usman, M.S. Uthman, O.A. Vaduganathan, M. Vaezi, A. Valdez, P.R. Varughese, S. Vasankari, T.J. Venketasubramanian, N. Villafaina, S. Violante, F.S. Vladimirov, S.K. Vlassov, V. Vollset, S.E. Vosoughi, K. Vujcic, I.S. Wagnew, F.S. Waheed, Y. Waller, S.G. Wang, Y. Wang, Y.-P. Weiderpass, E. Weintraub, R.G. Weiss, D.J. Weldegebreal, F. Weldegwergs, K.G. Werdecker, A. West, T.E. Whiteford, H.A. Widecka, J. Wijeratne, T. Wilner, L.B. Wilson, S. Winkler, A.S. Wiyeh, A.B. Wiysonge, C.S. Wolfe, C.D.A. Woolf, A.D. Wu, S. Wu, Y.-C. Wyper, G.M.A. Xavier, D. Xu, G. Yadgir, S. Yadollahpour, A. Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H. Yamada, T. Yan, L.L. Yano, Y. Yaseri, M. Yasin, Y.J. Yeshaneh, A. Yimer, E.M. Yip, P. Yisma, E. Yonemoto, N. Yoon, S.-J. Yotebieng, M. Younis, M.Z. Yousefifard, M. Yu, C. Zadnik, V. Zaidi, Z. Zaman, S.B. Zamani, M. Zare, Z. Zeleke, A.J. Zenebe, Z.M. Zhang, K. Zhao, Z. Zhou, M. Zodpey, S. Zucker, I. Vos, T. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 Disease Injury Incidence Prevalence Collaborators

Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Published
2018

44. Multiobjective optimization of fluphenazine nanocomposite formulation using NSGA-II method

Author

Abu Sharar, Ahmed Adnan, Ramadan, Saleem Z., and Hussein-Al-Ali, Samer Hasan

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO, 2019) reports that schizophrenia affects approximately 20 million people worldwide, and the annual number of new cases is estimated at 1.5%/10,000 people. As a result, there is a demand for making the relevant medicines work better. Using a fluphenazine (FZN) drug delivery system that has been optimized using nanoparticles (NPs) technology is an important alternative treatment option for noncompliant patients with schizophrenia. Compared to the conventional delivery system, the NPs delivery system provides a controlled-release treatment, minimizes drug levels reaching the blood, and has fewer side effects as well. As a result of using the NPs delivery system, patients can obtain the benefits of reduced daily dosing and improved compliance. In this context, this study was performed to develop a mathematical model for FZN to optimize its nanocomposite delivery system using a mixture-process DoE and multiobjective optimization (MOO) approaches. The influences of NPs input fabrication parameters [i.e., FZN percentage, chitosan (CS) percentage, sodium tripolyphosphate (TPP) percentage, and pH] were investigated by mixture-designed experiments and analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA); subsequently, based on the results of the analysis, three regression models were built for size, zeta potential (ZP), and drug loading efficiency (LE%); and thereafter, these models were validated using 26 experiments with three replicates. The MOO approach was employed using a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to provide the optimal fitness value of each objective function by minimizing NPs size, maximizing ZP, and maximizing LE%. Test of hypotheses showed no statistical differences between the average observed values and the corresponding predicted values calculated by the regression models (126.6 nm, 18.7 mV, and 91.6%, respectively). As there is no benchmark available for the optimal NPs input fabrication parameters in the literature, the optimized formulation was further characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), polydispersity index (PdI), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Those tests indicated that FZN was successfully encapsulated into the final nanocomposite. Furthermore, an in-vitrodrug release study was carried out and showed that at least 5 days would be needed for FZN to be fully released from its nanocomposite in a sustained-release pattern. The nanocomposite could serve as a model for the controlled and extended delivery of many drugs.

Published
2022
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47. Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Author

Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., Soofi M., Shen J., Sorensen R.J.D., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Steckling N., Stein D.J., Sufiyan M.B., Sur P.J., Sykes B.L., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabuchi T., Tavakkoli M., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekle M.G., Thapa S., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Tran B.X., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimparis N., Tyrovolas S., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Wagnew F.W.S., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Westerman R., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wyper G.M.A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yano Y., Ye P., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Zachariah G., Zaidi Z., Zamani M., Zhang X., Zodpey S., Mokdad A.H., Naghavi M., Murray C.J.L., Gakidou E., Griswold M.G., Fullman N., Hawley C., Arian N., Zimsen S.R.M., Tymeson H.D., Venkateswaran V., Tapp A.D., Forouzanfar M.H., Salama J.S., Abate K.H., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Aboyans V., Abrar M.M., Acharya P., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhikari T.B., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Agardh E.E., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmed M.B., Akibu M., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al Asfoor D.H., Al-Aly Z., Alahdab F., Alam K., Albujeer A., Alene K.A., Ali R., Ali S.D., Alijanzadeh M., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Allebeck P., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Aminde L.N., Ammar W., Amoako Y.A., Amul G.G.H., Andrei C.L., Angus C., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Aremu O., Arnlov J., Artaman A., Aryal K.K., Assadi R., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Ayele H.T., Ayer R., Ayuk T.B., Azzopardi P.S., Badali H., Badawi A., Banach M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barrero L.H., Basaleem H., Baye E., Bazargan-Hejazi S., Bedi N., Bejot Y., Belachew A.B., Belay S.A., Bennett D.A., Bensenor I.M., Bernabe E., Bernstein R.S., Beyene A.S., Beyranvand T., Bhaumik S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bijani A., Bililign N., Birlik S.M., Birungi C., Bizuneh H., Bjerregaard P., Bjorge T., Borges G., Bosetti C., Boufous S., Bragazzi N.L., Brenner H., Butt Z.A., Cahuana-Hurtado L., Calabria B., Campos-Nonato I.R., Rincon J.C.C., Carreras G., Carrero J.J., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Rivas J.C., Catala-Lopez F., Chang J.-C., Charlson F.J., Chattopadhyay A., Chaturvedi P., Chowdhury R., Christopher D.J., Chung S.-C., Ciobanu L.G., Claro R.M., Conti S., Cousin E., Criqui M.H., Dachew B.A., Dargan P.I., Daryani A., Das Neves J., Davletov K., De Castro F., De Courten B., De Neve J.-W., Degenhardt L., Demoz G.T., Des Jarlais D.C., Dey S., Dhaliwal R.S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Doku D.T., Doyle K.E., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duncan B.B., Ebrahimi H., Edessa D., El Sayed Zaki M., Ermakov S.P., Erskine H.E., Esteghamati A., Faramarzi M., Farioli A., Faro A., Farvid M.S., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Felisbino-Mendes M.S., Fernandes E., Ferrari A.J., Ferri C.P., Fijabi D.O., Filip I., Finger J.D., Fischer F., Flaxman A.D., Franklin R.C., Futran N.D., Gallus S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Gebregergs G.B., Gebrehiwot T.T., Geleijnse J.M., Ghadimi R., Ghandour L.A., Ghimire M., Gill P.S., Ginawi I.A., Giref A.Z.Z., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gotay C.C., Goulart A.C., Greaves F., Grosso G., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Gutierrez R.A., Gvs M., Hafezi-Nejad N., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hankey G.J., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hay S.I., Heibati B., Henok A., Heredia-Pi I., Hernandez-Llanes N.F., Herteliu C., Ts Tsegaw Hibstu D., Hoogar P., Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini M., Hostiuc M., Hu G., Huang H., Husseini A., Idrisov B., Ileanu B.V., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Jackson M.D., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jayatilleke A.U., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kapil U., Kasaeian A., Kassa T.D.D., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kebede S., Kefale A.T., Keiyoro P.N., Kengne A.P., Khader Y., Khafaie M.A., Khalil I.A., Khan M.N., Khang Y.-H., Khater M.M., Khubchandani J., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kivimaki M., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Bicer B.K., Kulkarni V.S., Kumar P., Lafranconi A., Balaji A.L., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lam H., Lami F.H., Lan Q., Lang J.J., Lansky S., Larsson A.O., Latifi A., Leasher J.L., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leung J., Levi M., Li Y., Lim L.-L., Linn S., Liu S., Lobato-Cordero A., Lopez A.D., Lotufo P.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Machado I.E., Madotto F., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mapoma C.C., Martinez-Raga J., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehta V., Meier T., Mekonen T., Meles K.G., Melese A., Memiah P.T.N., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G., Mirica A., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammed S., Monasta L., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mousavi S.M., Mukhopadhyay S., Musa K.I., Naheed A., Naik G., Najafi F., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nayak M.S.D.P., Nejjari C., Neupane S., Neupane S.P., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen T.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Noubiap J.J., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olivares P.R., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Oommen A.M., Oren E., Orpana H.M., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz J.R., Ota E., Owolabi M.O., Oyekale A.S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paudel D., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pillay J.D., Postma M.J., Pourmalek F., Prabhakaran D., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahman M., Rahman M.A., Rai R.K., Rajsic S., Raju S.B., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezai M.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Room R., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Sabde Y.D., Saddik B., Safiri S., Sahebkar A., Saleem Z., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santomauro D.F., Santos I.S., Santric Milicevic M.M.M., Sarker A.R., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Satpathy M., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Schaub M.P., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwendicke F., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Sharif M., She J., Sheikh A., Shiferaw M.S., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shishani K., Shiue I., Shukla S.R., Sigfusdottir I.D., Silva D.A.S., Da Silva N.T., Silveira D.G.A., Sinha D.N., Sitas F., Filho A.M.S., and Soofi M.

Abstract

Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Method(s): Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Finding(s): Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of agestandardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4.3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13.6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attrib

Published
2018

48. Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

Servan-Mori E., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Vaidya G., Valdez P.R., Van Donkelaar A., Varavikova E., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Vidavalur R., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Vollset S.E., Vos T., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagner G.R., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wassie M.M., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., Werkneh A.A., West T.E., Westerman R., Whisnant J.L., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Widecka K., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolde H.F., Wolfe C.D.A., Wu S., Xavier D., Xu G., Xu R., Yadollahpour A., Jabbari S.H.Y., Yakob B., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Ye P., Yearwood J.A., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yirsaw B.D., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yonga G., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zavala-Arciniega L., Zegeye D.T., Zegeye E.A., Zeleke A.J., Zendehdel K., Zerfu T.A., Zhang A.L., Zhang X., Zhou M., Zhu J., Zimsen S.R.M., Zodpey S., Zoeckler L., Zucker I., Zuhlke L.J.J., Lim S.S., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Hughes C., Thrift A.G., Lozano R., Fullman N., Abate D., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdel-Rahman O., Abdi A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe N.D., Abebe Z., Abejie A.N., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Aboyans V., Abraha H.N., Abrham A.R., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M., Abyu G.Y., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adedeji I.A., Adedoyin R.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adhena B.M., Adhikari T.B., Adib M.G., Adou A.K., Adsuar J.C., Afarideh M., Afshari M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Aghayan S.A., Agius D., Agrawal A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Ahmed S., Akalu T.Y., Akanda A.S., Akbari M.E., Akibu M., Akinyemi R.O., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam K., Alam T., Albujeer A., Alebel A., Alene K.A., Al-Eyadhy A., Alhabib S., Ali R., Alijanzadeh M., Alizadeh-Navaei R., Aljunid S.M., Alkerwi A., Alla F., Allebeck P., Allen C.A., Almasi A., Al-Maskari F., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Alonso J., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alsharif U., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A.T., Amenu K., Amini E., Ammar W., Anber N.H., Anderson J.A., Andrei C.L., Androudi S., Animut M.D., Anjomshoa M., Ansari H., Ansariadi A., Ansha M.G., Antonio C.A.T., Anwari P., Appiah L.T., Aremu O., Areri H.A., Arnlov J., Arora M., Aryal K.K., Asayesh H., Asfaw E.T., Asgedom S.W., Asghar R.J., Assadi R., Ataro Z., Atique S., Atre S.R., Atteraya M.S., Ausloos M., Avila-Burgos L., Avokpaho E.F.G.A., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayele H.T., Ayele Y., Ayer R., Azarpazhooh M.R., Azzopardi P.S., Azzopardi-Muscat N., Babalola T.K., Babazadeh A., Badali H., Badawi A., Balakrishnan K., Bali A.G., Banach M., Banerjee A., Banoub J.A.M., Banstola A., Barac A., Barboza 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Horita N., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Hsiao T., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Igumbor E.U., Ikeda C.T., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S.M.S., Islami F., Ivers R.Q., Izadi N., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Jalu M.T., Jamal A.A., James S.L., Jassal S.K., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Johnson S.C., Jonas J.B., Jonnagaddala J., Shushtari Z.J., Joshi A., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Madhanraj K., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kahssay M., Kalani R., Kapil U., Karami M., Matin B.K., Karanikolos M., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Karimi-Sari H., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassa Z.Y., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kaul A., Kawakami N., Kazemi Z., Karyani A.K., Kazi D.S., Prakash K.C., Kebede S., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., 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J.R., Lee J.B., Lee P.H., Leever A.T., Leigh J., Leinsalu M., Leshargie C.T., Leung J., Lewycka S., Li S., Li X., Li Y., Liang J., Liang X., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Limenih M.A., Linn S., Liu S., Liu Y., Lodha R., Logroscino G., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Lucchesi L.R., Lyons R.A., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Maddison E.R., Madotto F., Maghavani D.P., Magis-Rodriguez C., Mahotra N.B., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Mandarano-Filho L.G., Mangalam S., Manguerra H., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martin R.V., Martins S.C.O., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., McMahon B.J., Mehata S., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Mekonnen T.C.C., Meles H.G., Melese A., Melku M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mensink G.B.M., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezgebe H.B., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miller-Petrie M.K., Milne G.J., Mini G.K., Minnig S.P., Mirabi P., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Moazen B., Moghadamnia A.A., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadi M., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohan M.B.V., Mohan V., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Montanez J.C., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morgado-da-Costa J., Morisaki N., Morrison S.D., Mosapour A., Moschos M.M., Mountjoy-Venning W.C., Mouodi S., Mousavi S.M., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Mullany E.C., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Murthy G.V.S., Murthy S., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nabhan A.F., Nachega J.B., Nagarajan 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Papantoniou N., Park E.-K., Parry C.D.H., Parsian H., Patel S., Pati S., Patle A., Patton G.C., Paturi V.R., Paudel D., Paulson K.R., Pearce N., Peprah E.K., Pereira D.M., Perico N., Pervaiz A., Pesudovs K., Petri W.A., Petzold M., Phillips M.R., Pigott D.M., Pillay J.D., Pirsaheb M., Pletcher M., Pond C.D., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Poustchi H., Prabhakaran D., Prakash S., Prasad N., Purcell C.A., Pyakurel M., Qorbani M., Quansah R., Radfar A., Rafay A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi K., Rahimi-Movaghar A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M., Rahman M.S., Rahman M.H.U., Rahman M.A., Rahman S.U., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rajsic S., Ram U., Rana S.M., Ranabhat C.L., Ranjan P., Rasella D., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Razo-Garcia C., Reddy K.S., Reiner R.C., Reis C., Reitsma M.B., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Resnikoff S., Reynales-Shigematsu L.M., Rezaei S., Rezaeian S., Rezai M.S., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.L.P., Rios-Blancas M.J., Roba K.T., Roberts N.L.S., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Roth G.A., Roy A., Rubagotti E., Ruhago G.M., Sabde Y.D., Sachdev P.S., Saddik B., Sadeghi E., Safari H., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Safi S., Safiri S., Sagar R., Sahebkar A., Sahraian M.A., Sajadi H.S., Salam N., Salama J.S., Salamati P., De Freitas Saldanha R., Saleem Z., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J.A., Salvi S.S., Salz I., Sambala E.Z., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Sanchez-Nino M.D., Santos I.S., Milicevic M.M.S., Jose B.P.S., Sardana M., Sarker A.R., Sarrafzadegan N., Sartorius B., Sarvi S., Sathian B., Satpathy M., Savic M., Sawant A.R., Sawhney M., Saxena S., Saylan M., Sayyah M., Schaeffner E., Schmidt M.I., Schneider I.J.C., Schottker B., Schutte A.E., Schwebel D.C., Schwendicke F., Seedat S., Sekerija M., Sepanlou S.G., Seyedmousavi S., Shabaninejad H., Shackelford K.A., Shafieesabet A., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsi M.B., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi H., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharma J., Sharma R., Sharma S.K., She 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Tanser F.C., Tassew A.A., Tassew S.G., Tavakkoli M., Taveira N., Tawye N.Y., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalign T.G., Tekle M.G., Temesgen H., Temsah M.-H., Temsah O., Terkawi A.S., Teshale M.Y., Teshome D.F., Tessema B., Teweldemedhin M., Thakur J.S., Thankappan K.R., Theis A., Thirunavukkarasu S., Thomas L.A., Thomas N., Thomson A.J., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tobe-Gai R., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Tran T.T., Tripathy S.P., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsadik A.G., Car L.T., Tuzcu E.M., Tymeson H.D., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., and Updike R.L.

Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Method(s): We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile and 100 as the 97.5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the prob

Published
2018

49. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

Author

She J., Thankappan K.R., Thomas N., Tilahun B., To Q.G., Tonelli M., Topor-Madry R., Topouzis F., Torre A.E., Tortajada-Girbes M., Touvier M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Towbin J.A., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Troeger C.E., Truelsen T.C., Tsilimbaris M.K., Tsoi D., Tudor Car L., Tuzcu E.M., Ukwaja K.N., Ullah I., Undurraga E.A., Unutzer J., Updike R.L., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vaduganathan M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Varughese S., Vasankari T.J., Venketasubramanian N., Villafaina S., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vollset S.E., Vosoughi K., Vujcic I.S., Wagnew F.S., Waheed Y., Waller S.G., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Weiderpass E., Weintraub R.G., Weiss D.J., Weldegebreal F., Weldegwergs K.G., Werdecker A., West T.E., Whiteford H.A., Widecka J., Wijeratne T., Wilner L.B., Wilson S., Winkler A.S., Wiyeh A.B., Wiysonge C.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Woolf A.D., Wu S., Wu Y.-C., Wyper G.M.A., Xavier D., Xu G., Yadgir S., Yadollahpour A., Yahyazadeh Jabbari S.H., Yamada T., Yan L.L., Yano Y., Yaseri M., Yasin Y.J., Yeshaneh A., Yimer E.M., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Yoon S.-J., Yotebieng M., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zadnik V., Zaidi Z., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zare Z., Zeleke A.J., Zenebe Z.M., Zhang K., Zhao Z., Zhou M., Zodpey S., Zucker I., Vos T., Murray C.J.L., De Courten B., Fox J., James S.L., Abate D., Abate K.H., Abay S.M., Abbafati C., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abd-Allah F., Abdela J., Abdelalim A., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abebe Z., Abera S.F., Abil O.Z., Abraha H.N., Abu-Raddad L.J., Abu-Rmeileh N.M.E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Acharya D., Acharya P., Ackerman I.N., Adamu A.A., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adib M.G., Adsuar J.C., Afanvi K.A., Afarideh M., Afshin A., Agarwal G., Agesa K.M., Aggarwal R., Aghayan S.A., Agrawal S., Ahmadi A., Ahmadi M., Ahmadieh H., Ahmed M.B., Aichour A.N., Aichour I., Aichour M.T.E., Akinyemiju T., Akseer N., Al-Aly Z., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alam K., Alam T., Alashi 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Gall S., Ganji M., Gankpe F.G., Garcia-Basteiro A.L., Gardner W.M., Gebre A.K., Gebremedhin A.T., Gebremichael T.G., Gelano T.F., Geleijnse J.M., Genova-Maleras R., Geramo Y.C.D., Gething P.W., Gezae K.E., Ghadiri K., Ghasemi Falavarjani K., Ghasemi-Kasman M., Ghimire M., Ghosh R., Ghoshal A.G., Giampaoli S., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Ginawi I.A., Giussani G., Gnedovskaya E.V., Goldberg E.M., Goli S., Gomez-Dantes H., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorman T.M., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Grada A., Grams M.E., Grosso G., Gugnani H.C., Guo Y., Gupta P.C., Gupta R., Gupta T., Gyawali B., Haagsma J.A., Hachinski V., Hafezi-Nejad N., Haghparast Bidgoli H., Hagos T.B., Hailu G.B., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Handal A.J., Hankey G.J., Hao Y., Harb H.L., Harikrishnan S., Haro J.M., Hasan M., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Havmoeller R., Hawley C.N., Hay R.J., Hay S.I., Hedayatizadeh-Omran A., Heibati B., Hendrie D., Henok A., Herteliu C., Heydarpour S., Hibstu D.T., Hoang H.T., Hoek H.W., Hoffman H.J., Hole M.K., Homaie Rad E., Hoogar P., Hosgood H.D., Hosseini S.M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Hotez P.J., Hoy D.G., Hsairi M., Htet A.S., Hu G., Huang J.J., Huynh C.K., Iburg K.M., Ikeda C.T., Ileanu B., Ilesanmi O.S., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Irvine C.M.S., Islam S., Islami F., Jacobsen K.H., Jahangiry L., Jahanmehr N., Jain S.K., Jakovljevic M., Javanbakht M., Jayatilleke A.U., Jeemon P., Jha R.P., Jha V., Ji J.S., Johnson C.O., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Jungari S.B., Jurisson M., Kabir Z., Kadel R., Kahsay A., Kalani R., Kanchan T., Karami M., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karema C., Karimi N., Karimi S.M., Kasaeian A., Kassa D.H., Kassa G.M., Kassa T.D., Kassebaum N.J., Katikireddi S.V., Kawakami N., Kazemi Karyani A., Keighobadi M.M., Keiyoro P.N., Kemmer L., Kemp G.R., Kengne A.P., Keren A., Khader Y.S., Khafaei B., Khafaie M.A., Khajavi A., Khalil I.A., Khan E.A., Khan M.S., Khan M.A., Khang Y.-H., Khazaei M., Khoja A.T., Khosravi A., Khosravi M.H., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim C.-I., Kim D., Kim P., Kim Y.-E., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinfu Y., Kisa A., Kissimova-Skarbek K., Kivimaki M., Knudsen A.K.S., Kocarnik J.M., Kochhar S., Kokubo Y., Kolola T., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Kotsakis G.A., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kravchenko M.A., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kuate Defo B., Kucuk Bicer B., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kyu H.H., Lad D.P., Lad S.D., Lafranconi A., Lalloo R., Lallukka T., Lami F.H., Lansingh V.C., Latifi A., Lau K.M.-M., Lazarus J.V., Leasher J.L., Ledesma J.R., Lee P.H., Leigh J., Leung J., Levi M., Lewycka S., Li S., Li Y., Liao Y., Liben M.L., Lim L.-L., Lim S.S., Liu S., Lodha R., Looker K.J., Lopez A.D., Lorkowski S., Lotufo P.A., Low N., Lozano R., Lucas T.C.D., Lucchesi L.R., Lunevicius R., Lyons R.A., Ma S., Macarayan E.R.K., Mackay M.T., Madotto F., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Magdy Abd El Razek M., Maghavani D.P., Mahotra N.B., Mai H.T., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manda A.-L., Manguerra H., Manhertz T., Mansournia M.A., Mantovani L.G., Mapoma C.C., Maravilla J.C., Marcenes W., Marks A., Martins-Melo F.R., Martopullo I., Marz W., Marzan M.B., Mashamba-Thompson T.P., Massenburg B.B., Mathur M.R., Matsushita K., Maulik P.K., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., McGrath J.J., McKee M., Mehndiratta M.M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Mehta V., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonen T., Melese A., Melku M., Meltzer M., Memiah P.T.N., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Mengistu D.T., Mengistu G., Mensah G.A., Mereta S.T., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Mezerji N.M.G., Miazgowski B., Miazgowski T., Millear A.I., Miller T.R., Miltz B., Mini G.K., Mirarefin M., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misganaw A.T., Mitchell P.B., Mitiku H., Moazen B., Mohajer B., Mohammad K.A., Mohammadifard N., Mohammadnia-Afrouzi M., Mohammed M.A., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Moitra M., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Moreno Velasquez I., Morgado-Da-Costa J., Morrison S.D., Moschos M.M., Mousavi S.M., Mruts K.B., Muche A.A., Muchie K.F., Mueller U.O., Muhammed O.S., Mukhopadhyay S., Muller K., Mumford J.E., Murhekar M., Musa J., Musa K.I., Mustafa G., Nabhan A.F., Nagata C., Naghavi M., Naheed A., Nahvijou A., Naik G., Naik N., Najafi F., Naldi L., Nam H.S., Nangia V., Nansseu J.R., Nascimento B.R., Natarajan G., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Neupane S., Newton C.R.J., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen A.Q., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen H.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen M., Nguyen N.B., Nguyen S.H., Nichols E., Ningrum D.N.A., Nixon M.R., Nolutshungu N., Nomura S., Norheim O.F., Noroozi M., Norrving B., Noubiap J.J., Nouri H.R., Nourollahpour Shiadeh M., Nowroozi M.R., Nsoesie E.O., Nyasulu P.S., Odell C.M., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oh I.-H., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olagunju T.O., Olivares P.R., Olsen H.E., Olusanya B.O., Ong K.L., Ong S.K., Oren E., Ortiz A., Ota E., Otstavnov S.S., overland S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh 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Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Method(s): We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we

Published
2018

50. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author

James, S, Abate, D, Abate, K, Abay, S, Abbafati, C, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdela, J, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahpour, I, Abdulkader, R, Abebe, Z, Abera, S, Abil, O, Abraha, H, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Accrombessi, M, Acharya, D, Acharya, P, Ackerman, I, Adamu, A, Adebayo, O, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Adib, M, Adsuar, J, Afanvi, K, Afarideh, M, Afshin, A, Agarwal, G, Agesa, K, Aggarwal, R, Aghayan, S, Agrawal, S, Ahmadi, A, Ahmadi, M, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, M, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Akinyemiju, T, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Al-Raddadi, R, Alahdab, F, Alam, K, Alam, T, Alashi, A, Alavian, S, Alene, K, Alijanzadeh, M, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Aljunid, S, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Alouani, M, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Aminde, L, Ammar, W, Amoako, Y, Anber, N, Andrei, C, Androudi, S, Animut, M, Anjomshoa, M, Ansha, M, Antonio, C, Anwari, P, Arabloo, J, Arauz, A, Aremu, O, Ariani, F, Armoon, B, Ärnlöv, J, Arora, A, 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Catalá-López, F, Cercy, K, Cerin, E, Chaiah, Y, Chang, A, Chang, H, Chang, J, Charlson, F, Chattopadhyay, A, Chattu, V, Chaturvedi, P, Chiang, P, Chin, K, Chitheer, A, Choi, J, Chowdhury, R, Christensen, H, Christopher, D, Cicuttini, F, Ciobanu, L, Cirillo, M, Claro, R, Collado-Mateo, D, Cooper, C, Coresh, J, Cortesi, P, Cortinovis, M, Costa, M, Cousin, E, Criqui, M, Cromwell, E, Cross, M, Crump, J, Dadi, A, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Dargan, P, Daryani, A, Das Gupta, R, Das Neves, J, Dasa, T, Davey, G, Davis, A, Davitoiu, D, De Courten, B, De La Hoz, F, De Leo, D, De Neve, J, Degefa, M, Degenhardt, L, Deiparine, S, Dellavalle, R, Demoz, G, Deribe, K, Dervenis, N, Des Jarlais, D, Dessie, G, Dey, S, Dharmaratne, S, Dinberu, M, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Doan, L, Dokova, K, Doku, D, Dorsey, E, Doyle, K, Driscoll, T, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duken, E, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Ebrahimi, H, Ebrahimpour, S, Echko, M, Edvardsson, D, Effiong, A, Ehrlich, J, El Bcheraoui, C, El Sayed Zaki, M, El-Khatib, Z, Elkout, H, Elyazar, I, Enayati, A, Endries, A, Er, B, Erskine, H, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Esteghamati, A, Esteghamati, S, Fakhim, H, Fallah Omrani, V, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Farhadi, F, Farid, T, Farinha, C, Farioli, A, Faro, A, Farvid, M, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, V, Fentahun, N, Fereshtehnejad, S, Fernandes, E, Fernandes, J, Ferrari, A, Feyissa, G, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fitzmaurice, C, Foigt, N, Foreman, K, Fox, J, Frank, T, Fukumoto, T, Fullman, N, Fürst, T, Furtado, J, Futran, N, Gall, S, Ganji, M, Gankpe, F, Garcia-Basteiro, A, Gardner, W, Gebre, A, Gebremedhin, A, Gebremichael, T, Gelano, T, Geleijnse, J, Genova-Maleras, R, Geramo, Y, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadiri, K, Ghasemi Falavarjani, K, Ghasemi-Kasman, M, Ghimire, M, Ghosh, R, Ghoshal, A, Giampaoli, S, Gill, P, Gill, T, Ginawi, I, Giussani, G, Gnedovskaya, E, Goldberg, E, Goli, S, Gómez-Dantés, H, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorman, T, Goulart, A, Goulart, B, Grada, A, Grams, M, Grosso, G, Gugnani, H, Guo, Y, Gupta, P, Gupta, 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Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we ca

Published
2018

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