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Policies are becoming intensively interrelated while increasing numbers of societal groups and stakeholders are affected. At the same time, current and future challenges require improved capacity in terms of models, their linkages or redesigns to deliver forward-looking insights on policies. Different stakeholder workshops have recently been carried out in the context of two scenario studies to support these activities, including stocktaking, inputs for narratives, validation of the outcomes, acceptance of analysis and drafting future research agendas. This paper describes the approaches applied in both projects, shortly presents their results and findings to finally draw some general conclusions., International Journal on Food System Dynamics, Vol 13, No 2 (2022)

In the field of agri-food, impact assessments to support policy decision-making are often based on simulations delivered by models. The increasing complexity of policies affecting the agri-food sector requires improving the capacities of current models, connecting or redesigning them to deliver forward-looking insights on policy objectives. The EU-Project ‘Support for Policy Relevant Modelling of Agriculture' (SUPREMA) has identified upcoming needs in the research and policy agenda, while exploring the feasibility of those potential modelling exercises by testing the existing tools. The assessment has pointed out necessities for model extensions and development of new tools. Besides, it has revealed the potential of model integration and collaboration to supplement the outcomes of individual models. This is supported in view of the food system approach that is becoming the fundamental framework for analysing the dynamics of the agri-food sector when considering it from a broad perspective. This paper describes shortly how the assessment was conducted and presents the outcomes and lessons learnt from the project. It pays special attention to the challenges and the policy priorities that are expected to become important issues in the policy agenda in the coming years.

This paper investigates the effects of three different simulated post-COVID-19 recovery GDP growth rates during 2021-2023 (baseline, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios) for agricultural markets in four selected EU Member States (the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Hungary) compared to a pre-COVID-19 projection. Empirical results are derived from the AGMEMOD model. A self-sufficiency ratio is utilised to summarise the net effects on consumption and supply in the agricultural markets. The country level analysis confirms that the agriculture sector in the EU has been quite resilient during the pandemic. The simulated impacts of the different GDP shocks on the agri-food sector are limited, which also conforms to reality, but changes in consumer behaviour could lead to longer lasting impacts on specific sectors.

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables. Politik, Administration und Wirtschaft benötigen für ihre Entscheidungen mittelfristige Projektionen über die zu erwartenden Entwicklungen auf den Märkten der Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft. Die EU-Kommission legt solche Projektionen für die EU als Ganzes im Dezember jedes Jahres vor. Diese Projektionen und ihre Annahmen bezüglich politischer Maßnahmen und makroökonomischer Entwicklungen werden mit Hilfe des partiellen Modellsystems AGMEMOD auf die einzelnen EU-Mitgliedsstaaten mit der Ausnahme von Luxemburg, das mit Belgien regional zusammengefasst wird, herunter gebrochen. Das Working Paper beschreibt kurz den Ansatz, wie die Projektionen für die Mitgliedsstaaten erstellt werden. Die Projektionen umfassen die Märkte für wichtige Agrarprodukte, und zwar insbesondere für Getreide und Ölsaaten (Raps- und Sonnenblumensaat), für Vieh (Rinder, Schweine, Ziegen und Schafe), Fleisch (Rind-, Schweine- und Geflügelfleisch), Milch und Milchprodukte (Trinkmilch, Butter, Käse, Magermilchpulver, Vollmilch und teilentrahmtes Milchpulver) und decken Anbauflächen, Tierbestände, Produktion, Handel und Verwendung sowie Preise ab. Die einzelnen Projektionsergebnisse werden in tabellarischer Form aufbereitet dargestellt.

This report presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline 2020-2030 as well as the assumptions underlying the projections. The Thünen-Baseline describes the expected developments of agricultural markets under given macro-economic conditions assuming no change in the current policy framework. Projections are based on the data and information available in February 2020. The report includes projection results on agricultural trade, prices, demand, production, income and environmental effects. The presentation of the results focuses mainly on the developments of the German agricultural sector up to the year 2030 compared to the average of the base period 2017-2019. With regard to the crops sector results show that oilseed cultivation is likely to be expanded by 2030. This is because the oilseed sector becomes more competitive relative to grains driven by a stronger increase in yields as well as prices. For the meat sector, higher environmental and animal welfare standards suggest that the growth in production observed over the past decades is likely to slow down, especially in the pigmeat sector, while poultry meat production is expected to still grow slightly over the projection period. Furthermore, stable milk prices and dairy herd populations combined with a further increase in milk yield are likely to result in a moderate increase in milk deliveries over the projection period. The average real income of agricultural farms is expected to decline slightly over the projection period. However, in 2030 agricultural farms still achieve an income equal to the average level observed over the last ten years., DOI:10.3220/REP1601889632000

59. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V. vom 25. bis 27. September 2019

Policy, administration and industry need medium-term projections of the expected developments in the agri-food markets for their decision-making processes. The EU Commission presents such projections for the EU as a whole in December of each year. Those projections and their assumptions regarding policy and macroeconomic developments are depicted to the level of individual EU Member States with the exception of Luxembourg, which is included in the figures of Belgium, by applying the partial equilibrium model AGMEMOD. The working paper briefly describes the approach to establish projections for the EU Member States. The projections cover the markets of main agricultural products, in particular for cereals and oilseeds (rapeseed and sunflower seed), livestock (cattle, pigs, goats and sheep), meat (beef, pork, and poultry), milk and dairy products (drinking milk, butter, cheese, skimmed milk powder, whole milk and semi-skimmed milk powder). The outcomes comprise items like areas, livestock numbers, yields, production, trade and use, as well as prices. The individual projection results are displayed in tables., DOI:10.3220/WP1544622148000

Snacks and lunches offered at school can decisively influence children’s dietary habits. In order to counteract the current trends of increasing obesity in children, children’s preferences for foods with lower calorie content are becoming increasingly important. Based on the outcomes of an online survey with a choice experiment, we estimated the probability that young people benefit from different milk products as well as varying sugar and fat contents. The results suggest inter alia that young people who consider themselves to be overweight are more likely to choose products with reduced sugar and/or fat contents., International Journal on Food System Dynamics, Vol 9, No 2 (2018)

During the last years, current systems in agriculture and food production have been topic in public discussions. Especially modern animal husbandry seems not to match consumers’ or societal needs any longer. This paper concentrates on the society’s perspective regarding dairy farming in general and diverting perceptions and expectations with respect to dairy cattle either reared organically or reared conventionally. It aims to give orientation to farmers as well as policymakers about the societal point of view of dairy farming. Six focus groups were carried out in three German cities to capture the scope of opinions and expectations among the population. Three of those groups consisted of participants buying mainly organic food while the other three comprised citizens buying mainly conventional food. With respect to society’s perception of today’s dairy farming results showed that participants put emphasis on the following topics: the space for each cow was considered as insufficient and not species-appropriate, assumed application of medications as too high, and in particular the prophylactic use of antibiotics as problematic. Asked about perceived differences between organic versus conventional farming it became obvious that organic in contrast to the conventional farming was perceived as more species-appropriate. More or less, all previously criticized aspects seem to be regarded as irrelevant in organic farming. Some participants showed a very romantic view of organic dairy farming. The most critical point was an assumed high rate of rogue traders among organic farmers., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2015

Globally fish has become more important in the human nutrition, thus global consumption is expected to highly increase in the future years. Business-as-usual projections for fish market are limited by availability of reliable data that hinders the differentiation on fish category level on the supply and demand side and across EU member states. The Fishmodul in AGEMEMOD provides long term predictions for the fish market by fish categories at EU member state level. For this, a status-quo simulation to the year 2030 is developed in AGMEMOD. Additionally, opinions of market experts from private sector and research institutions through interviews and an elaborated questionnaire is integrated into the model to deal with the insufficient information. Thus, expertise knowledge provides better and accurate information of the sector for market projections. As results, baseline projections were adjusted, showing a slowly increase over the years, but higher production level by 2030., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2017

Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2017 - 2027 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Für die Erstellung der Thünen-Baseline wurden mehrere agrarökonomische Modelle im Verbund eingesetzt. Die Projektionen beruhen auf den im Juni 2017 vorliegenden Daten und Informationen zur weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Die Thünen-Baseline geht von einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik bzw. der Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen aus. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nachfrage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2014 - 2016. In der Thünen-Baseline 2017 - 2027 führen die verhaltenen Aussichten auf dem Weltagrarmarkt in Kombination mit einem wiedererstarkenden Euro dazu, dass die Preise für die meisten landwirtschaftlichen Erzeugnisse real zurückgehen. Eine Ausnahme stellen Milchprodukte dar, bei denen eine starke Exportnachfrage den Milchpreis stützt. Die Einkommen vieler Betriebe in Deutschland liegen daher eher unterhalb der Einkommen des Basiszeitraums 2014 bis 2016. Jedoch zeigt eine Variationsrechnung, die einen anhaltend schwachen Euro unterstellt, wie stark gerade die exportorientierten Sektoren von der Entwicklung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen abhängig sind. This report presents selected results of the Thünen Baseline 2017 - 2027 as well as the assumptions upon which these results are based. The Thünen Baseline is established using and combining several models of the Thünen model network. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. This report describes the outcome of model projections of agricultural trade, prices, production, income and environmental impacts. The presentation focuses on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the base period 2014 - 2016. In the Thünen Baseline 2017 - 2027, sluggish demand on world agricultural markets in combination with a stronger Euro implies that the real prices of most agricultural commodities will decline. One exception is dairy products, where strong export demand supports the producer price for milk in Germany. As a consequence, the income of many farms is projected to be lower than in the base period 2014-2016. However, a sensitivity analysis based on a scenario which assumes a depreciation of the Euro highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors depend on macroeconomic developments.

This report presents selected results of the Thünen Baseline 2017 – 2027 as well as the assumptions upon which these results are based. The Thünen Baseline is established using and combining several models of the Thünen model network. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. This report describes the outcome of model projections of agricultural trade, prices, production, income and environmental impacts. The presentation focuses on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the base period 2014 - 2016. In the Thünen Baseline 2017 - 2027, sluggish demand on world agricultural markets in combination with a stronger Euro implies that the real prices of most agricultural commodities will decline. One exception is dairy products, where strong export demand supports the producer price for milk in Germany. As a consequence, the income of many farms is projected to be lower than in the base period 2014-2016. However, a sensitivity analysis based on a scenario which assumes a depreciation of the Euro highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors depend on macroeconomic developments.

Globally fish has become more important in the human nutrition, thus global consumption is expected to highly increase in the future years. Business-as-usual projections for fish market are limited by availability of reliable data that hinders the differentiation on fish category level on the supply and demand side and across EU member states. The Fishmodul in AGEMEMOD provides long term predictions for the fish market by fish categories at EU member state level. For this, a status-quo simulation to the year 2030 is developed in AGMEMOD. Additionally, opinions of market experts from private sector and research institutions through interviews and an elaborated questionnaire is integrated into the model to deal with the insufficient information. Thus, expertise knowledge provides better and accurate information of the sector for market projections. As results, baseline projections were adjusted, showing a slowly increase over the years, but higher production level by 2030.

Snacks and lunches offered at school can decisively influence children’s dietary habits. In the light of discussions to establish prevention and intervention programs to abate current trends of rising childhood obesity, children’s preferences for food items with lower calorie content gain on importance. But youths preferences concerning different school milk products are not well-known. Therefore, the objective is to investigate if the milk products offered at school still meet older children’s preferences or if modifications could prove to be useful. Based on outcomes of an online survey covering a choice experiment and conducted among juveniles in Germany the probability that youths benefit from different products as well as varying prices, sugar and fat contents is estimated. Socio-demographics, psycho-metrics and perceived weight status are employed to explain youths choices preferring novel school milk products yet unavailable in German schools. Results of the choice experiment show that youths aged 15-18 are a heterogeneous group. They prefer a wider range of different products including drinking yoghurt as an option as well. Results indicate that nutritional aspects (low sugar/fat content, artificial sweetener) and body image are important for some of them., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, 2016: Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2016

In Germany, different voluntary labelling schemes are in place to describe the origin of dairy products covering varying degrees of binding conditions, for example, brands with geographical information privately defined combined with relatively vague obligations, private label initiatives (e.g., Regionalfenster)1 In contrast to other products, like most meats, fruit and vegetables, provision of information on the country of origin or place of provenance is not mandatory for milk and milk as an ingredient. Regulation (EU) No 1169/2011 on the provision of food information to consumers identifies the need to explore the possibility to extend mandatory origin labelling for selected foodstuff categories, i.e. dairy. Thus the EU issued a study aiming to evaluate cost and benefits of introducing a mandatory country of origin labelling (MCOOL) for dairy products (EU Commission, 2015). The study intended to analyse a range of issues covering the need of consumers to be informed, the feasibility of providing mandatory indication of the country of origin or place of provenance, and, an analysis of the measures’ economic implications, including the aspects concerning the common market and likely impacts on international trade., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, 2016: Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2016

Kurzfassung Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2015 – 2025 sowie die zugrun-de liegenden Annahmen dar. Für die Erstellung der Thünen-Baseline wurden mehrere agraröko-nomische Modellen im Verbund eingesetzt. Die Projektionen beruhen auf den im Juli 2015 vorlie-genden Daten und Informationen zur weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung. Die Thünen-Baseline geht von einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik bzw. der Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen aus. Dargestellt werden Projektionsergebnisse für Agrarhandel, Preise, Nach-frage, Produktion, Einkommen und Umweltwirkungen. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse kon-zentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors im Vergleich zur Situation im Basisjahrzeitraum 2009 − 2011. Darüber hinaus widmet sich die Thünen-Baseline 2015 – 2025 in einem eigenständigen Kapitel den Auswirkungen der Kopplung von Direktzahlun-gen, die in allen EU-Mitgliedstaaten, mit Ausnahme von Deutschland, eingesetzt wird. In der Thünen-Baseline 2015 − 2025 tragen günstige Aussichten auf dem Weltagrarmarkt in Kombinati-on mit einem schwachen Euro dazu bei, dass sich die Einkommen vieler Betriebe in Deutschland bis 2025 positiv entwickeln. Jedoch zeigt eine Variationsrechnung, die eine Wiederaufwertung des Euro unterstellt, wie stark gerade die exportorientierten Sektoren (wie z. B. Milch) von der Entwicklung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Kennzahlen abhängig sind.///////////////////Abstract The Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025: Agri-economic projections for Germany This report presents selected results of the Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025 as well as the assump-tions upon which these results are based. The Thünen Baseline is established using and combin-ing several models of the Thünen model network. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. This report describes the outcome of model projections of agricultural trade, prices, production, income and environmental impacts. The presentation focuses on the development of the German agricultural sector compared to the base period 2009 − 2011. In addition, the Thünen Baseline 2015 – 2025 takes a closer look at the impacts of coupled payments, which have been implemented in all EU member states except Germany. In the Thünen Baseline 2015 − 2025, a favourable outlook for world agricultural markets in combination with a weak Euro contribute to the positive develop-ment of farm incomes in Germany. However, a sensitivity analysis, based on a scenario which assumes an appreciation of the Euro, highlights the extent to which export-oriented sectors (e.g., the milk sector) depend on macro-economic developments

Several economic models project global agricultural market developments. In each of these models, certain relevant aspects influencing agricultural markets are underrepresented. In order to overcome this, three economic models are linked to each other, namely GLOBIOM, AGMEMOD and MAGNET. The method to link these models consists of several parts: mapping, harmonization, data transfer, scenario development and successive model runs. The developed Model Junction Linkage Tool (MOJITO) facilitates and automates these parts. In addition to a common baseline scenario, two scenarios reflecting two important factors in the future development of wheat markets in Ukraine and Russia are analyzed. While the baseline results differ widely between the models the scenarios develop in a similar fashion.

Today’s agriculture and food production has been topic in public discussions and the media in the last years. Societal perceptions and imaginations of agriculture seem to be far away from reality. There is no indication of a declining gap between consumers’ expectations and their perception of animal husbandry. However, precise information about expectations and priorities of the population are unknown. Thus, the paper concentrates on society’s views and opinions. On the example of intensive pig production, the objective of the study is to analyse societal perceptions, expectations and main points of criticism. It also aims on the identification and characterisation of societal groups with almost identical attitudes. By combining exploratory focus groups with a quantitative survey, a mixed method approach is pursued. Focus groups are carried out in September 2012 in three German cities to capture a variety of opinions and concerns among the population. On the basis of findings from focus groups a quantitative survey is carried out in spring 2013 per online survey with approximately 1500 German citizens to quantify qualitative results. The surveys’ findings confirmed many of the critical views gained in the focus groups. On the basis of four extracted attitudinal factors three groups with heterogeneous opinions are differentiated with respect to modern pig production. Besides a very engaged group which is characterised by a strong criticism in general and a strong critical perception of current production systems, also a considerable group accepting modern animal husbandry was identified. The multinomial logit regression finally allows for a characterisation of the identified societal segments by sociodemographic and regional aspects. Additionally, the question of responsibility and the acceptance of consequences of several governmental actions are included in the model. It turns out that gender and agricultural knowledge of the people are significant determinants in explaining cluster membership. Interestingly, opponents more often have a good knowledge of agriculture. These findings imply that negative attitudes cannot be traced back to a missing knowledge., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2015

In this report we summarize the contributions made by four groups to the subject of climate dependent yields. The first is by Waldemar Bojar, Leszek Knopik, Jacek Żarski, Cezary Sławiński, Piotr Baranowski and Wojciech Żarski on the subject of “the impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production”. It presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie (K&P) and Lubelskie regions, based on statistical databases and the literature review. In this study, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences and Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecasted agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the found dependencies’ yields – precipitation and the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices, areas of farmland and yields. The second contribution is by Bojar W., Knopik L. and Żarski J. on the subject of “integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability to use in food supply forecasting”. It examines the proposals to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods without rain. This model is based on a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. The third contribution is by Iddo Kan on the Vegetative Agricultural Land Use Economic (VALUE) model. It discusses the sub-task with respect to crops of statistically estimating with statistical methods predictions of expected crop-yield contingent on climate, soil and production cost for use in existing trade models, or refined versions thereof, and how VALUE can contribute to this sub-task. The fourth contribution was made by Christoph Muller and Richard D. Robertson on the subject of “projecting future crop productivity for global economic modelling”. It supplies a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models.

In Germany, productivity gains and other factors induce structural changes in agriculture since decades. While the number of farms decreases simultaneously average farm sizes with respect to area and herd sizes increases. Conflicts between agricultural reality and society’s perception will always surface when production methods of large farms become public and significantly divert from the societal expectations mainly if the society still have romantic views from story-books in their mind. In this study societal perception of structural change in agriculture is analyzed using a mixed method approach to identify the main conflicts and to evaluate options to cope with these. In the focus group discussions as well as in the online survey a rejecting or critical attitude towards structural change in agriculture was stated. Structural change in agriculture was often associated with ‘mass production’, ‘mechanization’ or ‘agrarian factories’. Participants requested a restructuring of agriculture towards smaller and more diversified farms; however, most are aware that the technical progress require also adjustments in the agriculture. As expected, results do not provide an easy solution to cope with societal expectations. Responsibility for a better alignment of structural change to societal expectations is seen multi-layered: The government, the farmers, the processing industry as well as the consumers seem to be in demand., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2014

„Mit nachwachsenden Ressourcen die Abhängigkeit von Öl vermindern“ – so untertitelt die Bundesregierung ihre Strategie zur Förderung der Bioökonomie in Deutschland (BMBF 2013). Zur Bioökonomie zählen alle Wirtschaftsbereiche, die nachwachsende Rohstoffe erzeugen, verarbeiten und handeln. Nachwachsende Rohstoffe werden vornehmlich von der Land‐ und Forstwirtschaft sowie der Fischerei und Aquakultur zur Verfügung gestellt. Doch in welchem Umfang geschieht dies? Welche Mengen werden importiert, welche exportiert? Wie werden sie gegenwärtig genutzt? Fallen Abfall‐ und Reststoffe an, die verwertet werden können? Ziel dieses Berichts ist, einen Überblick über Produktion, Handel und Verwendung von Produkten aus Land‐ und Forstwirtschaft sowie aus Fischerei und Aquakultur zu geben. Zukünftige Potenziale sowie Möglichkeiten, Rest‐ bzw. Abfallstoffe energetisch zu verwerten, werden bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Landwirtschaft vor allem Futter‐ und Lebensmittel erzeugt. Dennoch werden in Deutschland bereits mehr als zehn Prozent der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche zur Herstellung von Rohstoffen für energetische und stoffliche Verwendung genutzt. Die Potenziale für Energiegewinnung aus Rest‐ und Abfallstoffen erscheinen gering. Der größte Teil der Fisch‐ und Fischereinebenprodukte dient in Deutschland als Nahrungsmittel. Abfälle bei der Fischverarbeitung können vollständig zur Herstellung von Fischmehl und Fischöl verwendet werden. Von einer Zunahme der Fangmengen kann bei den für die deutsche Fischerei wichtigen Arten nicht ausgegangen werden. Bei der Verwendung von Rohholz in Deutschland entfallen rund drei Fünftel auf die stoffliche Nutzung, zwei Fünftel auf die energetische Verwertung. Letztere ist in den vergangenen Jahren vor allem in privaten Haushalten stark gestiegen. Die Nutzungspotenziale von Holz in Deutschland sind weitgehend ausgeschöpft oder unterliegen Restriktionen aus Gründen des Naturschutzes-------------------------------„Reducing oil dependence with renewable resources“ – this is how the German Federal Government subtitles its strategy to strengthen the bio‐based economy (BMBF 2013). The bioeconomy encompasses all economic sectors that produce, process and trade bio‐based renewable resources. The raw materials are largely provided by agriculture, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture. But in which quantities are they produced? Which quantities are imported and exported? How are the raw materials currently utilised? Are there residual or waste materials that can be used? The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of production, trade and utilisation of products from the agricultural and forestry sectors as well as from aquatic resources and aquaculture. Future potentials as well as the possibilities of using residual and waste materials for energy production are assessed. The results show that the agricultural sector primarily produces food and feed. Notwithstanding, more than ten percent of the agricultural area in Germany is currently dedicated to the production of raw materials for energy and material uses. The potentials for the generation of energy from residual and waste materials are deemed to be small. A large share of products and by‐products from fisheries and aquaculture are consumed as food in Germany. Waste from fish processing can be completely used for the production of fish meal and oil. An increase of catch of the species that are relevant for the German fishery sector seems unlikely. Roughly three fifths of the consumption of raw wood in Germany are attributed to material use, the remaining two fifths to energetic use. The latter sharply increased in recent years, mainly driven by the growing demand of private households. Due to overexploitation, especially of spruce, in the past the potential use of raw wood in German forests is largely exhausted or restricted by environmental protection schemes.

Mit nachwachsenden Ressourcen die Abhängigkeit von Öl vermindern - so untertitelt die Bundesregierung ihre Strategie zur Förderung der Bioökonomie in Deutschland (BMBF 2013). Zur Bioökonomie zählen alle Wirtschaftsbereiche, die nachwachsende Rohstoffe erzeugen, verarbeiten und handeln. Nachwachsende Rohstoffe werden vornehmlich von der Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie der Fischerei und Aquakultur zur Verfügung gestellt. Doch in welchem Umfang geschieht dies? Welche Mengen werden importiert, welche exportiert? Wie werden sie gegenwärtig genutzt? Fallen Abfall- und Reststoffe an, die verwertet werden können? Ziel dieses Berichts ist, einen Überblick über Produktion, Handel und Verwendung von Produkten aus Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie aus Fischerei und Aquakultur zu geben. Zukünftige Potenziale sowie Möglichkeiten, Rest- bzw. Abfallstoffe energetisch zu verwerten, werden bewertet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Landwirtschaft vor allem Futter- und Lebensmittel erzeugt. Dennoch werden in Deutschland bereits mehr als zehn Prozent der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche zur Herstellung von Rohstoffen für energetische und stoffliche Verwendung genutzt. Die Potenziale für Energiegewinnung aus Rest- und Abfallstoffen erscheinen gering. Der größte Teil der Fisch- und Fischereinebenprodukte dient in Deutschland als Nahrungsmittel. Abfälle bei der Fischverarbeitung können vollständig zur Herstellung von Fischmehl und Fischöl verwendet werden. Von einer Zunahme der Fangmengen kann bei den für die deutsche Fischerei wichtigen Arten nicht ausgegangen werden. Bei der Verwendung von Rohholz in Deutschland entfallen rund drei Fünftel auf die stoffliche Nutzung, zwei Fünftel auf die energetische Verwertung. Letztere ist in den vergangenen Jahren vor allem in privaten Haushalten stark gestiegen. Die Nutzungspotenziale von Holz in Deutschland sind weitgehend ausgeschöpft oder unterliegen Restriktionen aus Gründen des Naturschutzes.

Dieser Bericht stellt ausgewählte Ergebnisse der Thünen-Baseline 2013 - 2023 sowie die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen dar. Für die Erstellung der Thünen-Baseline wurden eine Reihe von Modellen im Verbund eingesetzt: das allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodell MAGNET, das partielle Gleichgewichtsmodell AGMEMOD, das regionalisierte Programmierungsmodell RAUMIS, das Betriebsgruppenmodell FARMIS sowie die einzelbetrieblichen Modelle TIPI-CAL und TYPICROP. Das Zieljahr der Projektion ist das Jahr 2023. Die Thünen-Baseline stellt keine Prognose der Zukunft dar, sondern beschreibt die erwarteten Entwicklungen unter bestimmten Annahmen zur Entwicklung exogener Faktoren und Politiken. Die Darstellung der Ergebnisse konzentriert sich hauptsächlich auf die Entwicklungen des deutschen Agrarsektors. Die Projektionen beruhen auf den Ende 2013 vorliegenden Daten und Informationen zur weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung sowie den im Frühjahr 2014 bekannten Eckpunkten zur Umsetzung der EU-Agrarreform. Die Thünen-Baseline geht von einer Beibehaltung der derzeitigen Agrarpolitik bzw. der Umsetzung bereits beschlossener Politikänderungen aus. Für die Thünen-Baseline 2013 - 2023 bedeutet dies im Wesentlichen die Umsetzung der 2013 beschlossenen Reform der Europäischen Agrarpolitik und ihrer nationalen Umsetzung entsprechend des Beschlusses der deutschen Agrarministerkonferenz. Dies beinhaltet die Reduzierung, Umverteilung und das sogenannte Greening der Direktzahlungen, sowie das Auslaufen der Milch- und Zuckerquotenregelungen. [...] This article presents selected results of the Thünen-Baseline as well as the assumptions upon which these results are based. The Thünen-Baseline is established using and combining several models of the Thünen model network: The general equilibrium model MAGNET, the partialequilibrium model AGMEMOD, the regionalized programming model RAUMIS, the farm group model FARMIS, and the farm-level models TIPI-CAL and TYPICROP. The target year of the projection is 2023. The Thünen-Baseline is not a forecast about the future. Rather, the baseline describes expected developments should the current agricultural policy be continued in accordance with specific assumptions about the development of exogenous influences. It provides a reference scenario for the analysis of the impacts of alternative policies and developments. The projections focus on the German agricultural sector, and are based on data and information available as of winter 2013/14. The baseline assumes a continuation of the current policy framework and the implementation of already decided policy changes. For the Thünen-Baseline 2013-2023, this implies the implementation of the EU-CAP reform decided in 2013 and its national implementation according to the decisions made at the German Ministers of Agriculture conference. This includes the reduction, redistribution and greening of direct payments, and the end of the milk and sugar quota regimes. [...]

The dairy sector is one of the most important agro-food markets in the European Union (EU). In addition to the fresh dairy products, cheese and butter considerable amounts of other dairy products with long sell-by dates are produced like skimmed milk, semi skimmed milk and whole milk powder. These products have some advantages in longer storage periods and easy transportation and thus they are often designated not only for domestic storage but also for international markets. As other internationally traded dairy products milk powders depict remarkable price variations in the last years which do find good matches in the domestic markets. Despite these variations the German industry regards milk powder as an interesting product for further investments driven by luminous international demand prospects. So the likely impacts between the international and the domestic prices movements are an important topic for the German dairy industry as well as German milk producers. In the past, the EU dairy market has been highly supported by the Common Market Organization (CMO) while, at the same time, milk supply has been restricted by the milk quota regime. High administrative price for dairy products were protected by significant import tariffs isolating the EU dairy sector from international trade. In addition, exports subsidies allowed successful competition with exports from third countries, not only for intervention products but also for other dairy products like whole milk powder. However, with the restructuring of the support starting with the Agenda 2000, the coupled market price support in form of intervention prices of butter and skimmed milk powder were stepwise reduced in favour of decoupled payments. Also invention purchases were restricted and the abolition of the milk quota regime was announced for 2014/15 and phased in by yearly increases of the national quotas. At the same time applied export refunds were suspended for most dairy products.

This report gives an overview on the Russian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Russia, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Russia has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework., JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy

Based on existing literature this paper reviews expectations of consumers, producers, other interest groups and citizens with respect to animal welfare and animal husbandry and indicates knowledge gaps as well. Findings enable us to develop a holistic research approach to analyse consumers’ and other interest groups’ preferences, expectations and concerns as well as requests of citizens. In order to reduce the gap between different perspectives regarding modern animal husbandry, these results will be used to improve communication between farmers and consumers or the society, respectively. It will facilitate the necessary integration of social concerns in the development of animal husbandry systems. An interdisciplinary network of researchers is aimed at., Proceedings in Food System Dynamics, Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2012

Since the stepwise reduction of intervention prices combined with watered down conditions and suspended export refunds, respectively, the EU dairy industry faces new challenges regarding wild price fluctuations originally caused in third countries. In the past, the EU domestic market was insulated as far as possible from world markets. However, today global prices could affect prices even at the level of consumers, but more directly at the level milk producers. Volatility noticeable increased with the price peak in 2007, followed by the drop in 2008, and a new price boost in 2010. Additionally, reduced security in marketing of butter and skimmed milk powder led to higher processing share of cheese which is not only exported but also increasingly consumed within the EU. Analyzing time series data of dairy products’ prices illustrates price fluctuations at different levels of the supply chain. Particularly, retail prices are less volatile than milk producer prices. Therefore, it is often assumed that retailers do not completely pass on downward movements of producer prices to consumers or, vice versa, and assumption encouraging debates on market power, margins and price transmission in the supply chain. German retailing is characterized by a high of market concentration and by a predominance of discounters, displaying a leading position in price negotiations with dairies or wholesalers. Thus, it can be argued that retailers adversely affect dairies who, in turn, affect milk producers. From this follows price transmission asymmetries differ across different levels of the supply chain, and volatile world market prices induced may affect the lower part of the supply chain negatively. However, price transmission has been analyzed in various studies before, mostly analyzing price transmissions between retailing and consumer level. Thus, they abstract from effects of intermediate levels (wholesale, world market). Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the transmission of milk prices from the farm to the retail level and to detect possible asymmetries, leading in the case of world market price fluctuations to additional problems in the German supply chain. The focus is on the German cheese market whereby regime specific effects are tested e.g., the reduction of EU market support which has major impacts on price transmission. Additionally, the change in the product mix and the increased export orientation of German dairies also affect price transmission. In the analysis monthly data from January 1990 to October 2011 for producer prices of raw milk, wholesale and consumer prices for cheese as well as prices in international trade with cheese are considered. Institutional prices were generated on a monthly basis, thus, capturing dates of change in intervention prices and of export refunds. Applying a subset of model specifications based on error-correction representation asymmetries are studied, whereby the seasonal pattern of data is filtered out.

This paper examines the effect of the future developments of Russian and Ukrainian agricultural sectors and their impact on the world market prices for arable crops. Employed in the study is AGMEMOD, a partial equilibrium economic model of EU agriculture at the Member State level that has been extended by Russia and Ukraine to gain quantitative insights. Vital for the project has also been the integration of an endogenous world market price module including a stylized Rest of the World (ROW) model. In Russia and Ukraine, there is a strong focus on plant production in general and on grain based animal production; Russia and Ukraine are mostly net-exports of those products. Under the baseline, in Russia prices for crops and oilseeds are below the world market price level. In general, the removals of the trade measures in Russia and Ukraine are projected to induce world market prices of cereals and oilseeds to decline.

The potential accession of Turkey to the EU, and the related adoption of the CAP by Turkey, is expected to influence agricultural markets in both the EU and Turkey. The extent of the accession impacts depends on the one hand on the way the CAP will be implemented in Turkey, while on the other hand impacts are expected to be also shaped by macroeconomic conditions (like exchange rates, GDP growth and inflation levels). In this paper we provide a comprehensive model-based assessment of the potential impacts on agricultural markets of a Turkish accession to the EU. We first assess the impacts under the assumption of standard macroeconomic projections, then we analyse how a different TL/Euro exchange rate, a doubling of the Turkish inflation rate or a doubling of the Turkish GDP growth rate would influence the accession impacts. Results of the Turkish EU-membership simulation show that the impacts on agricultural markets in Turkey are significant, while effects on EU markets are rather limited. The main impact on Turkish agriculture is a reduction of producer prices. With market prices and produced quantities declining, and as the coupled Turkish direct payments and the input subsidies will be replaced by lower payments of the CAP, agricultural income is expected to be reduced especially for Turkish crop producers (except for tobacco). In contrast, accession effects on the Turkish livestock sector are projected to be positive, mainly due to lower feed costs. Furthermore, the demand levels of most commodities are projected to increase due to lower prices, thus Turkish consumers are expected to gain from an accession to the EU. The further analysis reveals that in particular a depreciation of the Turkish lira alters the results of the accession scenario.

A German federal research was established to analyse determinants on school milk demand. Among those, individual factors, like children’s eating habits, attitudes, preferences and socio-economic variables were considered but also contextual factors like attitudes and habits of class teachers and school variables were regarded; and more, price effects on demand were derived via a price experiment. As girls order significantly less school milk than boys this paper aims to analysis gender-specific decisions. In the analysis, a database is used in which individual order information are merged with survey results concerning pupils, parents, class teachers, school principals and school milk managers of the sampled schools. A multilevel analysis is applied, because included explanatory variables of gender-specific school milk orders can be assigned to different groups (individual, class, school, price phase) in which the independence of variable distributions may be hampered; whereas equations are established as ordinary logistic function. Estimates for both genders comprise individual factors affecting positively the school milk orders like e.g., the provision of school milk free of charge, or when pupils think that `milk tastes good´ and contextual factors such as their class teachers’ involvement. Gender-specific distinctions cover e.g., the fact that male pupils have a higher probability to order school milk and react to price incentives. Concerning the context variables, boys react to teachers and principal attitudes. In contrast, with girls prices have a very limited impact, but their parents and teachers are regarded as role models. Girls prefer more choices in product differentiation. These results indicate gender-specific programs integrating their family and teachers, and a wider range of product choices.

Dieser Arbeitsbericht analysiert und bewertet die Auswirkungen der Vorschläge der EUKommission zur künftigen Gestaltung der Direktzahlungen an landwirtschaftliche Betriebe ab 2014. Im Mittelpunkt der auf Deutschland bezogenen Analysen stehen die Vorschläge zum sog. Greening, das neue Anforderungen hinsichtlich der Anbaudiversifizierung, der Bereitstellung ökologischer Vorrangflächen und des Erhalts von Dauergrünland vorsieht. Darüber hinaus werden zentrale weitere Vorschläge, wie z.B. die allgemeine Kürzung der Direktzahlungen, deren mögliche Umverteilung in die 2. Säule der GAP sowie die Degression und Kappung der Zahlungen behandelt. Neben eher kurzfristig und auf das Machbare orientierten Empfehlungen betonen die Autoren der Studie, dass sie die 2. Säule der GAP für zielgerichtete Maßnahmen geeigneter halten als die 1. Säule. Daher sollten langfristig für Direktzahlungen vorgesehene Mittel zunehmend in die 2. Säule verlagert werden und dort möglichst gezielt eingesetzt werden. In der Förderperiode 2014 bis 2020 sollte Deutschland die Optionen zur Stärkung der 2. Säule ausschöpfen.

This report gives an overview on the Ukrainian agri-food sector and provides an outlook for the developments in agricultural markets for Ukraine, focussing on the main agricultural commodities. For the purpose of the study a detailed dataset and modelling structure for the main agricultural commodities in Ukraine has been developed and integrated into the overall AGMEMOD modelling framework., JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economy