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Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios (“World Markets,” “National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship”) were based on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates an example of the “regionalization” of these scenarios by summarizing how they were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by climate change.

High-latitude ecosystems are among the fastest warming on the planet1. Polar species may be sensitive to warming and ice loss, but data are scarce and evidence is conflicting2,3,4. Here, we show that, within their main population centre in the southwest Atlantic sector, the distribution of Euphausia superba (hereafter, ‘krill’) has contracted southward over the past 90 years. Near their northern limit, numerical densities have declined sharply and the population has become more concentrated towards the Antarctic shelves. A concomitant increase in mean body length reflects reduced recruitment of juvenile krill. We found evidence for environmental controls on recruitment, including a reduced density of juveniles following positive anomalies of the Southern Annular Mode. Such anomalies are associated with warm, windy and cloudy weather and reduced sea ice, all of which may hinder egg production and the survival of larval krill5. However, the total post-larval density has declined less steeply than the density of recruits, suggesting that survival rates of older krill have increased. The changing distribution is already perturbing the krill-centred food web6 and may affect biogeochemical cycling7,8. Rapid climate change, with associated nonlinear adjustments in the roles of keystone species, poses challenges for the management of valuable polar ecosystems3.

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecological Modelling 261-262 (2013): 43–57, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.006., Dynamic Green Ocean Models (DGOMs) include different sets of Plankton Functional Types (PFTs) and equations, thus different interactions and food webs. Using four DGOMs (CCSM-BEC, PISCES, NEMURO and PlankTOM5) we explore how predator–prey interactions influence food web dynamics. Using each model's equations and biomass output, interaction strengths (direct and specific) were calculated and the role of zooplankton in modeled food webs examined. In CCSM-BEC the single size-class adaptive zooplankton preys on different phytoplankton groups according to prey availability and food preferences, resulting in a strong top-down control. In PISCES the micro- and meso-zooplankton groups compete for food resources, grazing phytoplankton depending on their availability in a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control. In NEMURO macrozooplankton controls the biomass of other zooplankton PFTs and defines the structure of the food web with a strong top-down control within the zooplankton. In PlankTOM5, competition and predation between micro- and meso-zooplankton along with strong preferences for nanophytoplankton and diatoms, respectively, leads to their mutual exclusion with a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control of the plankton community composition. In each model, the grazing pressure of the zooplankton PFTs and the way it is exerted on their preys may result in the food web dynamics and structure of the model to diverge from the one that was intended when designing the model. Our approach shows that the food web dynamics, in particular the strength of the predator–prey interactions, are driven by the choice of parameters and more specifically the food preferences. Consequently, our findings stress the importance of equation and parameter choice as they define interactions between PFTs and overall food web dynamics (competition, bottom-up or top-down effects). Also, the differences in the simulated food-webs between different models highlight the gap of knowledge for zoopla, This work was supported with funding from Palmer LTER (NSF OPP-0823101) and C-MORE (NSF EF-0424599).

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 28 (2014): 181-196, doi:10.1002/2013GB004743., The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of ~6 Pg C yr−1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump., D.A.S. and K.O.B. acknowledge support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX11AF63G). S.C.D. and S.F.S. acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation through the Center for Microbial Oceanography: Research and Education (C-MORE) (NSF EF-0424599)., 2014-09-10

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013); 6833-6850, doi:10.5194/bg-10-6833-2013., We investigated the mechanisms of phytoplankton competition during the spring bloom, one of the most dramatic seasonal events in lower-trophic-level ecosystems, in four state-of-the-art plankton functional type (PFT) models: PISCES, NEMURO, PlankTOM5 and CCSM-BEC. In particular, we investigated the relative importance of different ecophysiological processes on the determination of the community structure, focusing both on the bottom-up and the top-down controls. The models reasonably reproduced the observed global distribution and seasonal variation of phytoplankton biomass. The fraction of diatoms with respect to the total phytoplankton biomass increases with the magnitude of the spring bloom in all models. However, the governing mechanisms differ between models, despite the fact that current PFT models represent ecophysiological processes using the same types of parameterizations. The increasing trend in the percentage of diatoms with increasing bloom magnitude is mainly caused by a stronger nutrient dependence of diatom growth compared to nanophytoplankton (bottom-up control). The difference in the maximum growth rate plays an important role in NEMURO and PlankTOM5 and determines the absolute values of the percentage of diatoms during the bloom. In CCSM-BEC, the light dependency of growth plays an important role in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The grazing pressure by zooplankton (top-down control), however, strongly contributes to the dominance of diatoms in PISCES and CCSM-BEC. The regional differences in the percentage of diatoms in PlankTOM5 are mainly determined by top-down control. These differences in the mechanisms suggest that the response of marine ecosystems to climate change could significantly differ among models, even if the present-day ecosystem is reproduced to a similar degree of confidence. For further understanding of plankton competition and for the prediction of future change in marine ecosystems, it is important to understand th, T. Hashioka, Y. Yamanaka and T. Hirata, were supported by the Grant-in-Aid for the Global COE Program from MEXT, by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5) from the Ministry of the Environment and by the Strategic Young Researcher Overseas Visits Program for Accelerating Brain Circulation from JSPS. S. Doney, I. Lima and S. Sailley acknowledge support from C-MORE (NSF EF-0424599).

In the context of global warming and climate change Biogeochemical Ocean General Circulation Models (BOGCM) are hard pressed to provide clear and realistic answers as to how ecosystems and the carbon cycle are affected. Ecosystem models have developed from the NPZ type (Nutrient-Plankton-Zooplankton) towards the use of several plankton functional types (PFTs) to enhance the prediction of ecosystem feedback on climate change. PFTs are selected on their impact on biogeochemical cycles. Zooplankton PFTs, for example, are mostly defined by size. Microzooplankton, one of these size classes, is a group of interest due to a high biomass and growth rates which allow these organisms to follow fluctuations in prey concentration. Furthermore, they are known to graze ~40-75% of particulate primary production in the surface ocean, against ~10-15% for the mesozooplankton. As a size class, microzooplankton includes several organisms pelagic ciliates, heterotrophic dinoflagellates, foraminifera, metazoans larva and copepods nauplii with different feeding modes, food preferences, grazing and growth rates. Ciliates and heterotrophic dinoflagellates are the main microzooplankton organisms. Although they are both protozoans, their feeding behaviour and preferred prey size have a substantial difference. In order to assess their differences, results from laboratory experiments were compiled from the literature a total of 342 for ciliates and 161 for dinoflagellates. It emerged that both organisms have a growth and a grazing threshold, also both grazing and growth rates depends on organism size and the size ratio with their prey (size expressed as diameter, volume or carbon content). Ciliates exhibit an increase of their maximal grazing rate past the optimal prey:ciliate ratio of 1:10. Dinoflagellates have a maximal grazing rate which increases to a prey:dinoflagellate ratio of 2:1, then continues to increase past this value, with a marked preference for diatoms over other possible prey t

In the context of global warming and climate change Biogeochemical Ocean General Circulation Models (BOGCM) are hard pressed to provide clear and realistic answers as to how ecosystems and the carbon cycle are affected. Ecosystem models have developed from the NPZ type (Nutrient-Plankton-Zooplankton) towards the use of several plankton functional types (PFTs) to enhance the prediction of ecosystem feedback on climate change. PFTs are selected on their impact on biogeochemical cycles. Zooplankton PFTs, for example, are mostly defined by size. Microzooplankton, one of these size classes, is a group of interest due to a high biomass and growth rates which allow these organisms to follow fluctuations in prey concentration. Furthermore, they are known to graze ~40-75% of particulate primary production in the surface ocean, against ~10-15% for the mesozooplankton. As a size class, microzooplankton includes several organisms pelagic ciliates, heterotrophic dinoflagellates, foraminifera, metazoans larva and copepods nauplii with different feeding modes, food preferences, grazing and growth rates. Ciliates and heterotrophic dinoflagellates are the main microzooplankton organisms. Although they are both protozoans, their feeding behaviour and preferred prey size have a substantial difference. In order to assess their differences, results from laboratory experiments were compiled from the literature a total of 342 for ciliates and 161 for dinoflagellates. It emerged that both organisms have a growth and a grazing threshold, also both grazing and growth rates depends on organism size and the size ratio with their prey (size expressed as diameter, volume or carbon content). Ciliates exhibit an increase of their maximal grazing rate past the optimal prey:ciliate ratio of 1:10. Dinoflagellates have a maximal grazing rate which increases to a prey:dinoflagellate ratio of 2:1, then continues to increase past this value, with a marked preference for diatoms over other possible prey t

In the context of global warming and climate change Biogeochemical Ocean General Circulation Models (BOGCM) are hard pressed to provide clear and realistic answers as to how ecosystems and the carbon cycle are affected. Ecosystem models have developed from the NPZ type (Nutrient-Plankton-Zooplankton) towards the use of several plankton functional types (PFTs) to enhance the prediction of ecosystem feedback on climate change. PFTs are selected on their impact on biogeochemical cycles. Zooplankton PFTs, for example, are mostly defined by size. Microzooplankton, one of these size classes, is a group of interest due to a high biomass and growth rates which allow these organisms to follow fluctuations in prey concentration. Furthermore, they are known to graze ~40-75% of particulate primary production in the surface ocean, against ~10-15% for the mesozooplankton. As a size class, microzooplankton includes several organisms pelagic ciliates, heterotrophic dinoflagellates, foraminifera, metazoans larva and copepods nauplii with different feeding modes, food preferences, grazing and growth rates. Ciliates and heterotrophic dinoflagellates are the main microzooplankton organisms. Although they are both protozoans, their feeding behaviour and preferred prey size have a substantial difference. In order to assess their differences, results from laboratory experiments were compiled from the literature a total of 342 for ciliates and 161 for dinoflagellates. It emerged that both organisms have a growth and a grazing threshold, also both grazing and growth rates depends on organism size and the size ratio with their prey (size expressed as diameter, volume or carbon content). Ciliates exhibit an increase of their maximal grazing rate past the optimal prey:ciliate ratio of 1:10. Dinoflagellates have a maximal grazing rate which increases to a prey:dinoflagellate ratio of 2:1, then continues to increase past this value, with a marked preference for diatoms over other possible prey t