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Access to electricity is a prerequisite for development, included in both the Agenda for Sustainable Development and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Still, universal access to electricity is elusive to large parts of the global population. In Somalia, approximately one-third of the population has access to electricity. The country is unique among non-island countries as it has no centralized grid network. This paper applies a geospatial electrification model to examine paths towards universal access to electricity in Somalia under different timelines and with regard to different levels of myopia in the modeling process. This extends the previous scientific literature on geospatial electrification modeling by studying the effect of myopia for the first time and simultaneously presenting the first geospatial electrification analysis focused on Somalia. Using the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET), the least-cost electrification options towards 2030 and 2040, respectively, are compared. We find that under the shorter timeline, a deployment of mini-grids and stand-alone PV technologies alone provides the least-cost option under all but one scenario. However, under the longer timeline, the construction of a national transmission backbone would lower overall costs if there is high demand growth and/or low cost of centralized grid electricity generation. We also compare different levels of myopia in the modeling process. Here, OnSSET is first run directly until 2040, then in five-year time-steps and annual time-steps. We find that running the model directly until 2040 leads to the lowest costs overall. Running the model myopically leads to a sub-optimal, more costly technology mix, with a lock-in effect towards stand-alone systems. On the other hand, the myopic approach does provide additional insights into the development of the system over time. We find that longer-term planning favors the centralized grid network, whereas short-sighted myopic planning ca, QC 20231030

Access to modern energy services is a pre-requisite for sustainable development. As such, Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. However, as of 2021, 675 million people lack access to electricity, and 2.3 billion people lack access to clean cooking fuels. Electricity in particular can bring benefits to many sectors of society, including households, health facilities, educational facilities, agricultural activities and businesses. Providing such access in currently underserved areas at the lowest cost requires an integrated approach, utilizing a combination of extension of the centralized grid networks, deployment of mini-grids and stand-alone technologies. Given the need for an integrated approach to increase access to electricity, geospatial electrification tools have been developed and used to inform policy- and decision-making. These tools are a category of energy system tools that draws on geospatial information to understand which technology to use where, depending on the local characteristics of each settlement in a country or region as well as the existing energy infrastructure. The number of geospatial electrification tools and analyses have seen a steep increase since the start of the millennia, particularly since the 2010’s. Some of these tools and analyses use simpler analytical expressions to estimate the least-cost technology in each location, whereas others provide detailed design of transmission, distribution and generation systems. Geospatial electrification tools and analyses are increasingly used for decision-making and planning purposes towards the achievement of universal access to electricity. This dissertation aims to advance the state of the art in geospatial electrification modelling to support electrification efforts. In particular, the thesis examines the dynamics between the three types of electricity supply technologies (grid-extension, mini-grids and st, Tillgång till moderna energitjänster är en förutsättning för hållbar utveckling. Av den anledningen syftar mål 7 av de globala målen för hållbar utveckling (SDG 7) till att säkerställa tillgång till ekonomiskt överkomlig, tillförlitlig, hållbar och modern energi för alla. 2021 saknade dock 675 miljoner människor tillgång till elektricitet och 2.3 miljarder människor tillgång till rena matlagningsbränslen. I synnerhet elektricitet kan medföra fördelar för många samhällssektorer, inklusive hushåll, hälso- och sjukvård, utbildning, jordbruksverksamheter och företag. Att öka tillgången till elektricitet till lägsta möjliga kostnad i områden som för närvarande är underförsörjda kräver ett integrerat tillvägagångssätt som utnyttjar en kombination av expansion av nationella elnät, implementering av småskaliga elnät samt fristående teknologier. Geospatiala elektrifieringsverktyg har utvecklats utifrån behovet av ett integrerat tillvägagångssätt för att öka tillgången till elektricitet, och används för att informera policy och beslutsfattande. Dessa verktyg är en kategori av energisystemverktyg, som använder geospatial information för att förstå vilken teknik som ska användas var, beroende på både lokala förutsättningar för varje bosättning i ett land eller en region och den befintliga energiinfrastrukturen. Antalet geospatiala elektrifieringsverktyg och analyser har ökat kraftigt sedan millennieskiftet, i synnerhet sedan början av 2010-talet. Vissa av dessa verktyg och analyser använder enklare analytiska uttryck för att identifiera den teknik som är mest kostnadseffektiv på varje plats, medan andra ger mer detaljerad information kring utformningen av transmissions-, distributions- och elproduktionssystem för varje plats. Geospatiala elektrifieringsverktyg och analyser används i allt större grad för beslutsfattande och planering i syfte att uppnå SDG 7. Denna avhandling syftar till att avancera state-of-the-art inom geospatial elektrifieringsmodellering, för att informera e

As of 2021, 675 million people globally lack access to electricity. Geospatial electrification tools can be used to identify the mix of grid-extension, mini-grids and stand-alone technologies that can supply currently unelectrified areas at the lowest cost. Several such tools have been developed, at different levels of modelling detail and complexity. In this paper, we improve the Open Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to develop a flexible geospatial electrification tool that can still run lighter rapid assessments for a first estimate of the technology split, but now also more detailed analysis with higher spatial and temporal resolution used for grid routing, distribution network design and optimization of hybrid mini-grid generation introduced through new algorithms. We compare the existing light and new detailed versions of the tool through a case study of the north-western parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We find that the new grid routing algorithm lead to more off-grid technologies, and that the detailed design of distribution networks lead to a reduction in stand-alone technologies. The detailed optimization of hybrid mini-grids display varying effects at different demand levels. Given the increased computational effort that is observed with higher modelling detail, we discuss the implications for scenario design and selection of geospatial electrification tool for future analyses aiming to support the achievement of SDG 7., QC 20231006

Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia's energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country's electricity needs during 2015-2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country's exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD., QC 20210401

For decades, electrification planning in the developing world has often focused on extending the national grid to increase electricity access. This article draws attention to the potential complementary role of decentralized alternatives – primarily micro-grids – to address universal electricity access targets. To this aim, we propose a methodology consisting of three steps to estimate the LCOE and to size micro-grids for large-scale geo-spatial electrification modelling. In the first step, stochastic load demand profiles are generated for a wide range of settlement archetypes using the open-source RAMP model. In the second step, stochastic optimization is carried by the open-source MicroGridsPy model for combinations of settlement size, load demand profiles and other important techno-economic parameters influencing the LCOE. In the third step, surrogate models are generated to automatically evaluate the LCOE using a multivariate regression of micro-grid optimization results as a function of influencing parameters defining each scenario instance. Our developments coupled to the OnSSET electrification tool reveal an important increase in the cost-competitiveness of micro-grids compared to previous analyses., QC 20200617

With pressing priorities in the development agenda, policy makers in developing countries are in the difficult situation of prioritizing policy actions. Limited government and utility budgets need cost effective solutions to bring the desired development benefits of electrification, health, education and food security among others. Energy access is a prerequisite for economic activity and for human development as interacts in synergy with other development needs. As rural electrification models usually focus on the supply of electricity solely, thermal energy needs, such as cooking and water heating remain unattended and satisfied by non-renewable energy fuels. To this aim, we explore optimal electrification solutions addressing two types of energy demands, electricity and thermal energy demands for cooking. Our model builds on a 3-step electrification methodology proposed by Peña et al. including electricity as a modern source of clean energy for cooking in rural communities. The total investments needed to build and operate the microgrids, including distribution costs, is 332 million USD. This is equivalent to 1129 USD/per inhabitant. This amount does not account however the health and environment benefits that e-cooking can bring to inhabitants in Bolivian low-lands., QC 20201111

The authors wish to make a change in author names (adding new author—Dimitrios Mentis) to this paper [1]: Author Contributions On page 19, author contributions are updated as follows: Conceptualization, A.K., D.M. and M.H.; Methodology, A.K., A.S., B.K. and D.M.; Software, A.K., B.K., A.S. and C.A.; Validation, M.H.; Formal Analysis, A.K.; Investigation, A.K.; Resources, A.K. and B.K.; Data Curation, A.K., B.K. and A.S.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, A.K.; Writing—Review and Editing, A.K., D.M., M.H., C.A.; Visualization, A.K. and B.K.; Supervision, M.H.; Project Administration, M.H.; Funding Acquisition, M.H., D.M. and A.K. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding On page 19, funding sources are updated as follows: This research was funded by the World Bank under the contract number 7185716 and partially by (a) the Swedish Center for Smart Grids and Energy Storage (SweGRIDS-ABB) under grant VF-2015-0018 and (b) the ÅForsk Foundation under grant 17-604. The authors would like to apologize for any inconvenience caused to the readers and contributors by these changes. The changes do not a ect the scientific results. The manuscript will be updated, and the original will remain online on the article webpage, with a reference to this correction., QC 20210223

Achieving universal access to electricity is a development challenge many countries are currently battling with. The advancement of information technology has, among others, vastly improved the availability of geographic data and information. That, in turn, has had a considerable impact on tracking progress as well as better informing decision making in the field of electrification. This paper provides an overview of open access geospatial data and GIS based electrification models aiming to support SDG7, while discussing their role in answering difficult policy questions. Upon those, an updated version of the Open Source Spatial Electrification Toolkit (OnSSET-2018) is introduced and tested against the case study of Malawi. At a cost of $1.83 billion the baseline scenario indicates that off-grid PV is the least cost electrification option for 67.4% Malawians, while grid extension can connect about 32.6% of population in 2030. Sensitivity analysis however, indicates that the electricity demand projection determines significantly both the least cost technology mix and the investment required, with the latter ranging between $1.65-7.78 billion., “Correction in: Energies, vol. 13, issue. 19. DOI: 10.3390/en13195044, Scopus: 2-s2.0-85092607489”QC 20190610

Access to clean cooking and electricity are both targets of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). While both targets are to be reached by 2030, the progress towards them is uneven. Peer-reviewed literature and policy documents have called for more integrated planning efforts accounting for both targets simultaneously. Here, we soft-link for the first time a geospatial electrification tool (OnSSET) with a geospatial clean cooking tool (OnStove) to allow for integrated planning in a case-study of Kenya. In 2021, 77% of Kenyans had access to electricity, but only 28% to clean cooking. The government has targeted universal electricity and clean cooking access by 2026 and 2028 respectively, and the country has a large potential for electric cooking. Our results show how incorporating cooking demand in the electricity model, favors centralized options as these benefit from economies of scale. Without soft-linking, 77% of the population benefit most from adopting an electric option. With an integrated approach, these shares increase to between 85 and 91%. We find that an integrated approach is important for understanding the best way forward towards the achievement of SDG 7., QC 20240122