Magali Giral, Anne-Hélène Querard, Yohann Foucher, Katy Trébern-Launay, Serge Briançon, Michèle Kessler, Sahar Bayat-Makoei, Le Bihan, Sylvie, Jeunes Chercheuses et Jeunes Chercheurs - Construction d'un marqueur composite de substitution de la survie à long terme : application à la transplantation rénale - - CSM (Composite Surrogate Marker)2011 - ANR-11-JSV1-0008 - JCJC - VALID, Centre de Recherche en Transplantation et Immunologie (U1064 Inserm - CRTI), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Nantes - UFR de Médecine et des Techniques Médicales (UFR MEDECINE), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN), Institut de transplantation urologie-néphrologie (ITUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes (CHU Nantes), MethodS in Patients-centered outcomes and HEalth ResEarch (SPHERE), Université de Tours (UT)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Nantes - UFR des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, Réseau CENTAURE [CHU Nantes] (Fondation, Centre d’Investigation Clinique en Biothérapie), Université de Nantes (UN)-Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes (CHU Nantes)-Institut de Transplantation et de Recherche en Transplantation (ITUN - Institut Transplantation Urologie Néphroplogie*), Service de Néphrologie [CHRU Nancy], Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy), Unité d'épidémiologie et de biostatistique [Rennes], École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Service de Néphrologie, dialyse, transplantation [CHD Vendée] (Site de La Roche sur Yon), Centre Hospitalier Départemental - Hôpital de La Roche-sur-Yon (CHD Vendée), Centre d'investigation clinique - Epidémiologie clinique [Nancy] (CIC-EC), Centre d'investigation clinique [Nancy] (CIC), Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL), Centre hospitalier universitaire de Nantes (CHU Nantes), Grants from the French Ministry of Health (PHRC, PROG/11/85, 2011). Grant for epidemiology and biostatistics research from the RTRS ‘CENTAURE’., ANR-11-JSV1-0008,CSM (Composite Surrogate Marker),Construction d'un marqueur composite de substitution de la survie à long terme : application à la transplantation rénale(2011), Unité de néphrologie [CHRU Nancy-Brabois], Centre Hospitalier Départemental Vendée, Université de Tours-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Nantes - UFR des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques, and Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Lorraine (UL)-Centre Hospitalier Régional Universitaire de Nancy (CHRU Nancy)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)
International audience; When a patient is registered on renal transplant waiting list, she/he expects a clear information on the likelihood of being transplanted. Nevertheless, this event is in competition with death and usual models for competing events are difficult to interpret for non-specialists. We used a horizontal mixture model. Data were extracted from two French dialysis and transplantation registries. The ''Ile-de-France'' region was used for external validation. The other patients were randomly divided for training and internal validation. Seven variables were associated with decreased long-term probability of transplantation: age over 40 years, comorbidities (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, malig-nancy), dialysis longer than 1 year before registration and blood groups O or B. We additionally demonstrated longer mean time-to-transplantation for recipients under the age of 50, overweight recipients, recipients with blood group O or B and with pre-transplantation anti-HLA class I or II immunization. Our model can be used to predict the long-term probability of transplantation and the time in dialysis among transplanted patients, two easily interpretable parts. Discriminative capacities were validated on both the internal and external (AUC at 5 years = 0.72, 95% CI from 0.68 to 0.76) validation samples. However, calibration issues were highlighted and illustrated the importance of complete re-estimation of the model for other countries. We illustrated the ease of interpretation of horizontal modelling, which constitutes an alternative to sub-hazard or cause-specific approaches. Nevertheless, it would be useful to test this in practice, for instance by questioning both the physicians and the patients. We believe that this model should also be used in other chronic diseases, for both etiologic and prognostic studies.