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LEGISLAÇÃO TRABALHISTA E MERCADO DE TRABALHO: O CASO DA CONVENÇÃO 158 DA OITApesar de ser pouco conhecida a Convenção 158 da OIT, que proíbe a demissão de um funcionário sem justa causa, vigorou no Brasil entre 10 de abril a 20 de novembro de 1996. Tal fato propicia uma excelente oportunidade para se verificar o efeito da regulação sobre o mercado de trabalho. Com o uso de dados da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego, e utilizando um modelo probit, foi possível demonstrar que durante o período de vigência dessa Convenção tanto as probabilidades do indivíduo obter emprego como a probabilidade de se inserir no mercado formal de trabalho foram reduzidas.

We investigate the effects of the Profrota Pesqueira Program, created in 2004, on the performance of labor market indicators of municipalities with port fishing terminals. Specifically, we measure the effects on the formal employment and earnings. To do so, we combine employment information from Rais between 2000 and 2015, with data from other sources for obtaining a panel of municipalities. We used Difference in Differences Estimator. The results show that the program did not have positive effects on the indicators evaluated in the fisheries sector. Some of the estimates are robust to analyzes of falsification. Econometric analysis of the effects of the program on the labor market as a whole, with data from the population census, editions 2000 and 2010, reveals that the program seems to have influenced the engagement of workers in paid labor market activities and to reduce labor in own consumption or in the non paid labor market activities.

We use data from the period 2009-15 to estimate the impact of the public policy aiming to decrease the taxes paid by companies over their payroll. The objective of this program, so called Less Taxes on the Payroll ("Desoneração da Folha de Pagamento"), was to burst the employment in the firms benefited by the tax cut. Overall our econometric results show no employment effect of this program.

This paper presents a tax reform proposal on consumption in Brazil. The basic idea is to add several taxes in a single Value Added Tax (VAT). Unlike the other proposals, which suggest a strategy automatically encompassing all federated entities, our study suggests a dual and modular reform based on the Canadian model. The main advantage of this strategy lies on its implementation because the approval in the National Congress initially does not require greater institutional arrangements but only changes in infraconstitutional laws. Moreover, contrary to the mandatory nature of the others proposals, our model implies a voluntary adhesion of the federated entities. This factor, besides facilitating the approval of the proposal, respects the federative principle of our country.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the One Computer Per Student Program (Prouca), from the National Education Development Fund (FNDE), performance in the Brazil Test (Prova Brasil) and the National High School Examination (ENEM), both at school level, using the differences-in-differences method combined with the propensity score matching (PSM), and at the student level, using the PSM. The results showed that the program had a positive impact on students' performance in the final years of the Brazil Test (Portuguese and mathematics) and in the Enem language and codes and writing tests in 2010, as well as in all tests in 2011 - including the average of the exams - except in writing. At the school level, the program had a positive impact on the writing test and the average of the Enem assessments, the analysis between 2009 and 2010, and the natural science and writing tests as well as in the total average, in the research between 2009 and 2011.

This study had the objective of evaluating the impact of the Broadband Program in Schools (PBLE) on the educational quality of schools. For this, two indicators were used: Basic Education Development Index (Ideb) and the average of the National High School Exam (Enem). Adopting differences-in-differences method (DiD) and Panel Data, with and without pairing, it was possible to demonstrate that: i) with data from Ideb referring to the initial years of elementar education, the impact of the program in schools was negative; and ii) in relation to the final years of elementary education, there were improvements in schools in the Southeast and Central West. In addition, the Enem data confirmed which schools in the Southeast region showed improvement in math test (MT), with a significant increase varying between 3% and 4% in performance, but worsened test scores for languages and codes (LC). For the Northeast region, the program had positive effects on the natural science test (NC), but negative on the MT test.

This paper estimates a VAR model representing the new-Keynesian Phillips curve with exchange rate shocks for the Brazilian economy. The unemployment rate from the PME survey is our proxy for the marginal cost, inflation is measured by the CPI, and expectations were obtained from the Central Bank survey with the financial market. The empirical findings may be summed up in the following: a) the exchange rate pass-through is around 0.04 p.p. to the next month inflation (above 0.4 p.p. in the annualized rate) after an exogenous variation of R$ 0,01 in the dollar price, but this effect is insignificant; b) a shock on the unemployment rate lasts abound 18 months; c) an innovation of 0,06 p.p. on expectations is carried to inflation which is increased by 0,05 p.p. in the month following the shock (0.6 p.p. over the annualized inflation); and d) a shock on the inflation rate has no effect over the unemployment rate, that is, more inflation does not reduce unemployment. Este artigo estima um modelo de vetores autorregressivos (VAR) representando a curva de Phillips novo keynesiana com choques cambiais. A taxa de desemprego da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) do IBGE é a proxy para o custo marginal, a inflação é medida pelo Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) e as expectativas foram obtidas do boletim Focus do Banco Central do Brasil. Os resultados indicam que: a) o pass-through cambial é de cerca de 0,04 p.p. na inflação do mês seguinte ao choque de R$ 0,01 no preço do dólar (mais de 0,4 p.p. na inflação anualizada), mas esse efeito é insignificante; b) um choque médio na taxa de desemprego demora ao redor de 18 meses para desaparecer; c) uma inovação de 0,06 p.p. na expectativa de inflação é carregada para a inflação, que atinge um máximo de 0,05 p.p. no mês seguinte ao choque (0,6 p.p. na inflação anualizada); e d) choques na série de inflação não afetam a taxa de desemprego, isto é, mais inflação não reduz o desemprego.

Based on the hypothesis that the rulers of monetary and fiscal policy in Brazil may have been submitted to different regimes, the present study applies Leeper model (1991; 2005) in order to identify the chronology of policy regimes regarding their active and passive character. The policy rules are estimated by the Markov Switching (MS) model in which the regimes are endogenously identified. The results obtained allow us to place that fiscal dominance occurred in 2010 and between 2013 and 2014 while monetary dominance happened in much of 2003 and during the period from 2005 to 2007. The model still seeks to explain why the rate of Inflation during 2015 remained on the rise even though the monetary policy imposed by Central Bank was active.

This article verifies the different effects of legal repression over homicide rates across Brazilian states. We analyze the impacts of two different kinds of legal repression: incapacitation (rate of individuals serving time in jail) and deterrence (rate of police officers). Our econometric results suggest that different police strategies can have different impact over the homicide rate. Furthermore, we find evidence that the new Anti-Drug Law of 2006 had as an unintended consequence the decrease of the impact of incarceration rate over homicide rate. Esse artigo avalia se as políticas de repressão aos homicídios tem efeitos similares em diferentes estados. As políticas de repressão ao crime podem ser divididas em políticas de incapacitação (encarceramento) e políticas de detenção (taxas de policiamento). Nossos resultados sugerem que diferentes estratégias policiais podem ter impactos distintos no combate ao crime. Além disso, pudemos constatar que a mudança na Lei de Combate as Drogas de 2006 teve como consequência não desejada enfraquecer o impacto da taxa de encarceramento sobre a taxa de homicídios.

This paper uses Brazilian quarterly data, from the period January/2002 to June/2015, to estimate the impact of taxes over gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The econometric results show a negative and statistically significant impact of the overall tax burden over per capita GDP. In average, an increase of 1 percent in the overall tax burden decreases GDP per capita by 0.3 percent. This result is very similar in magnitude with those presented by Heady et al. (2011). Furthermore, additional econometric results pointed out that a revenue neutral fiscal policy which changes the tax structure toward consumption taxes and personal income taxes would improve economic growth. Besides that, we strongly recommend against both taxes over the capital stock (mainly the recurrent ones) and the corporate income taxes.

Este trabalho identifica a existência de economias de escala e escopo na previdência complementar fechada brasileira por meio da realização de um conjunto de testes quantitativos realizados sobre a base de dados administrativos disponibilizada peloMinistério da Previdência Social. Serão apresentados a revisão da literatura internacional, as estatísticas descritivas da base de dados, o modelo teórico para existência de economias de escala em previdência complementar fechada, os métodos quantitativos aplicados, seus respectivos resultados e uma seção com implicações normativas. Os resultados econométricos apontam para a existência de economias de escala na previdência complementar fechada brasileira mais expressiva que na literatura internacional. This work identifies the existence of economies of scale and scope for the Brazilian complementary pension funds via quantitative tests on the administrative data base of the Ministry of Social Security. A literature review, a descriptive statistics of the data base, a theoretical model on the existence of economies of scale in complementary pensions, the quantitative methods used, its results and the normative implications will be presented. Econometric results show that economies of scale on Brazilian complementary pensions are stronger than in the rest of the world.

In this article we estimate the relationship between inflation and trade openness [e.g., Romer (1993)] using modern panel data techniques. The advantage here is that we are able to explicit test the hypothesis proposed by Terra (1998) that the negative relationship between openness and inflation is due to severely indebted countries in the debt crisis period. The econometric results give support to Romer (1993) showing that the negative relationship between inflation and openness are neither restrict to a subset of countries or a time period.

Based on the relation between investment and domestic saving proposed by Feldstein and Horioka (1980) to verify capital mobility, this study performs some exogeneity tests in order to determine the capacity of the FH equation of supporting and implementing economic policies in Brazil. We then use the result of weak exogeneity test to identify a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) involving investment and saving in order to evaluate the effect of exogenous shocks through impulse response functions (IRFs) on both variables. The main findings of this paper are: a) the elasticity of domestic saving estimated using appropriate methods points out to high capital mobility for Brazil; b) domestic saving is weakly exogenous in the FH equation; c) domestic saving is not strongly exogenous, therefore this equation should not be used to make forecasts for the Brazilian economy; d) superexogeneity is accepted for domestic saving, meaning that Lucas' criticism does not apply; and e) the IRFs showed that investment is sensitive to contemporaneous innovation on saving and this effect lasts for a long time. Regarding to domestic saving, the response of this variable to a non-expected shock on investment has a more is more complicate description. Initially domestic saving goes down. After some lags this movement changes and domestic saving begins to react positively to the shock.

This study aims to analyse the demand for credit in Brazilian market for vehicles. Based on the Markov Switching model to dealing with regime change, we estimate a demand function using aggregated monthly data from Oct./2000 to Dec./2012. The results showed that the demand for credit was subject to three distinct states during this period. The first one marks the state where the credit was determined by the market fundamentals. This regime most appeared from 2004 to 2008 in which one perceives a cycle of continued and strong expansion of credit. After it follows one state strongly influenced by the economic crisis occurred in the beginning of 2008. In this period there was a great fall in credit. The third regime that rushes in a single cycle between Dec./2008 Oct./2010 happened as a result of countercyclical measures adopted by the Central Bank and the Federal Government with the aim of mitigating the effects of the economic crisis. Such measures promoted the quickly expansion of credit leading to the process of bubble formation in market for vehicles that led to the need for the introduction of so-called macro prudential measures by the Central Bank when there was already an ongoing trend of continuous increase in default.

This article verifies the different effects of legal repression over homicide rates across Brazilian states. We analyze the impacts of two different kinds of legal repression: incapacitation (rate of individuals serving time in jail in relation to 100,000 inhabitants) and deterrence (rate of police officers in relation to 100,000 inhabitants). We use both official homicides rate and the adjusted homicides rate estimated by Cerqueira (2013). Our econometric results suggest that different police strategies can have different impact over the homicide rate, which contradicts the study of Levitt (2004). Furthermore, we find evidence that the new Anti-Drug Law of 2006 had as an unintended consequence the decrease of the impact of incarceration rate over homicide rate.

This article summarizes the studies about the Phillips curve in the Brazilian economy. Overall, the results are very sensitive to the time period, to the proxies adopted, to the econometric approach, and to the frequency and lags allowed to the variables. These results cast some doubts about the ability of the Phillips curve to describe the dynamics of inflation in the Brazilian economy.

The main objective of this article is to verify the impact of both the incarceration rate and the number of police officers over the homicide rates. Overall, our results suggest that the increase in both the incarceration rate and the number of police officers are important do deter homicides. That is, the successful fight against crime can be achieved by incarceration and police officers independently of what happens with other socioeconomic variables.

Using data for the 27 Brazilian states during the period 1980-2009, we found that the media index in an important determinant of the suicide rates. The econometric results suggest that an increase of 1% in the media index increases the suicide rate for young males (age between 15 and 29 years old) in 5.34%. Suggesting that contagion plays a particularly important role in teen suicide, which reinforces the results obtained by Cutler, Glaeser e Norberg (2001). Furthermore, we found that both unemployment and violence impact positively in the suicide rates.

This study aims to estimate the system of bank credit demand and supply in Brazil. Understanding how the balance is established in this market is the key to know the importance of the credit channel. Based on the aggregated data from June 2000 to August 2012 not only for firms but also for individuals we founded the following results. First, credit demand is pro-cyclical, reacting negatively to the unemployment and positively to GDP. Second, the price elasticity of demand for firms is higher for firms than for individuals, corroborating the fact that companies may have other sources of funding. Thirdly, it was not possible to determine the bank credit supply to individuals. This fact seems to indicate that there is no reverse causality in the personnel credit in the sense that, for this segment, the credit demand has no effect on the loan rate. Fourth, we observe the expected signs into default, the cost of funding and inflation in credit supply function in both segments. Finally, it appears that the introduction of payroll loans on personnel credit brought down the cost of the loan.

This article verifies the occurrence of a real estate bubble in the Brazilian economy. Overall, our results suggest the existence of a bubble in the real estate sector of the economy. The Austrian School of economics provides a solid explanation to this phenomenon, which are reinforced by statistical techniques, suggesting the Federal government, with equivocate fiscal and monetary policy, as the main responsible for the creation of this problem.

We estimate a VAR model of the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Several different specifications, with different time frequencies, were estimated. Overall the results were robust to these changes, and can be summed up in the following: i) the pass-through to the next month inflation is around 0.04 percentage points (p.p.) (0.48 p.p. over the annualized inflation); ii) a shock on the unemployment rate lasts for 18 months; iii) a shock on the expectations are carried to the next month inflation (0.58 p.p. over the annualized inflation); and iv) a shock on the inflation rate has no effect over the unemployment rate. That is, more inflation does not reduce unemployment.