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BACKGROUND: The risk of antibiotic resistance is complicated by the potential for spillover effects from one treated population to another. Azithromycin mass drug administration programs report higher rates of antibiotic resistance among treatment arms in targeted groups. This study aimed to understand the risk of spillover of antibiotic resistance to nontarget groups in these programs. METHODS: Data were used from a cluster-randomized trial comparing the effects of biannual azithromycin and placebo distribution to children 1-59 months old on child mortality rates. Nasopharyngeal samples from untreated children 7-12 years old were tested for genetic determinants of macrolide resistance (primary outcome) and resistance to other antibiotic classes (secondary outcomes). Linear regression was used to compare the community-level mean difference in prevalence by arm at the 24-month time point, adjusting for baseline prevalence. RESULTS: A total of 1103 children 7-12 years old in 30 communities were included in the analysis (15 azithromycin, 15 placebo). The adjusted mean differences in the prevalence of resistance determinants for macrolides, β-lactams, and tetracyclines were 3.4% (95% confidence interval, -4.1% to 10.8%; P = .37), -1.2% (-7.9% to 5.5%; P = .72), and -3.3% (-9.5% to 2.8%; P = .61), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to demonstrate a statistically significant increase in macrolide resistance determinants in untreated groups in an azithromycin mass drug administration program. While the result might be consistent with a small spillover effect, this study was not powered to detect such a small difference. Larger studies are warranted to better quantify the potential for spillover effects within these programs.

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Science is humanity's best insurance against threats from nature, but it is a fragile enterprise that must be nourished and protected. The preponderance of scientific evidence indicates a natural origin for SARS-CoV-2. Yet, the theory that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in and escaped from a lab dominates media attention, even in the absence of strong evidence. We discuss how the resulting anti-science movement puts the research community, scientific research, and pandemic preparedness at risk.

Though recent waves of large-scale street protests have not directly targeted the business sector, they can still represent a major development in a company's external environment. Building on the literature on community embeddedness, this study extends activism-as-information theory to understand how and when companies respond to street protests that take place in their communities. We argue that for business leaders, the scale of protests serves as an information update regarding the changing relevance of the protested social issue in a community. Using data from 2017 to 2020 on Women's March protests in the United States, we show that the scale of street protests in local communities is associated with the likelihood of subsequent female director appointments for corporations headquartered in those communities: larger-scale protests are associated with a higher likelihood of such appointments. Further, we show that this response to proximal protests is heightened for protests that occur in local communities least aligned with the protest movement and for companies least internally aligned with the protest goals. Our theory and findings extend research on social movements in markets, showing how and why organizations respond to diffuse community protests, and they enrich corporate governance research on the roles of communities and stakeholders in shaping board composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting customers' pro-environmental behaviors (PEBs) is crucial for greening the hotel industry. However, customers often hesitate to adopt resource-saving PEBs in public places like hotels due to a "dual positive externality/spillover" problem – extra positive economic spillovers and increased positive environmental spillovers, compared to conducting such behaviors in private households. This study explores habitual PEBs at home and two distinct environmental cognitions associated with key spillover beneficiaries (nature and hotels) to address this challenge and accelerate customers' PEBs in hotel settings. The rationale is that customers' habitual PEBs at home can automatically extend to hotels with insensitivity or low sensitivity to positive spillovers; the two beneficiary-linked environmental cognitions (general environmental awareness associated with nature and occasional corporate environmental responsibility attribution [CERA] linked to hotels) can make customers psychologically internalize the positive spillovers of their PEBs at home and hotels to different degrees by changing psychological boundaries between actors and beneficiaries, and/or enable them to realize the intrinsic psychological rewards or incentives (such as a sense of pride or identification) that serve as compensation for the spillovers. Furthermore, this study proposes that habitual PEBs at home mediate between general environmental awareness and PEBs at hotels by bridging the cognition-behavior gap. Moreover, there is a sequential decrease in the effects of habitual PEBs at home, altruistic CERA, and environmental awareness on PEBs at hotels. Empirical evidence from a survey of Chinese hotel guests supports most hypotheses, offering valuable insights for promoting PEBs in the hotel industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the determinants that drive the volatility of the credit default swaps (CDS) of BRICIT (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, and Turkey) nations as a proxy measure for sovereign risk. On the existence of cointegration, an unrestricted error correction model integrated with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to measure the short-run and long-run dynamics empirically. The study utilizes the Bayesian global vector autoregression methodology for cross-border spillover estimation. The study also suggests a strategy for policymakers for quadrant categorization to mitigate risk arising from cross-border spillover. The result of ARDL indicates that the global macroeconomic variables affect the BRICIT CDS more than domestic macroeconomic determinants, with Indian CDS being the most sensitive to Fed tapering. Notably, China's CDS is the most sensitive to shocks, with the CDS volatility primarily driven by China's geopolitical risk. Russian CDS is more sensitive to real effective exchange rates due to severe ruble depreciation than crude oil, despite Russia being a major oil exporter. The quadrant categorization indicates that the Indonesian stock market index is most interconnected with BRICIT CDS, while the Turkish long-term interest rates send the highest intensity spillover across BRICIT nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty serves as a significant source of volatility in financial markets. The aim of this study is to examine the spillover effects of China's financial market uncertainties (capital market, currency market, foreign exchange (FX) market and derivatives market) and their potential determinants. A large amount of economic and financial data is selected as the sample dataset to construct the financial uncertainty index by the combination of the stochastic volatility model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The TVP-VAR-DY model and the extreme bounds analysis model are also used to conduct spillover and determinant analyses. The results indicate that uncertainties in capital and currency markets primarily act as transmitters of spillover effects. The derivatives market uncertainty mainly serves as a recipient of influence from other markets, whereas the role of FX market uncertainty is relatively unstable. Moreover, international factors such as global economic policy uncertainty and the implied volatility index (VIX) have a more robust impact on spillover relationships among the four financial uncertainties, whereas domestic factors have the greater impact intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological spillover – the transfer and use of knowledge between defence and civilian sectors – is desired by many countries, and particularly salient under intensifying US-China competition. Yet to date, no systematic measure of spillover exists. This paper presents a novel measure of spillover using a dataset of over 116,000 defence-related patents, and argues that (1) concerns over China’s ‘authoritarian advantage’ should be moderated, and (2) the composition and structure of knowledge transfer networks in the US and China should inform the appropriate channels of managing competition, which I demonstrate through case studies of aerial drones and missile technology spillover networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prairie dogs are notoriously difficult to enumerate, with previously methods including visual counts, mark‐resight, burrow counts, and catch per unit effort. Unlike those methods, spatial capture‐recapture (SCR) analyses allow for formal estimation of density along with associated estimates of uncertainty, detection probability, and the size of the average area over which an individual was detected during the study period (referred to as an activity center). Using SCR analyses, we compared density estimates as part of a field trial evaluating the effectiveness of an oral sylvatic plague vaccine in black‐tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), Gunnison's prairie dogs (C. gunnisoni), white‐tailed prairie dogs (C. leucurus), and Utah prairie dogs (C. parvidens) at 11 study areas in the western United States. The study was designed as a matched pairs analysis that included 27 individual paired plots (54 plots), each consisting of a plot treated with vaccine baits and a plot treated with placebo baits. Overall, we captured >3,000 individuals each year on these plots, and recapture rates ranged from 5–87%. For black‐tailed prairie dogs, density estimates ranged from 2.7 individuals/ha (95% CI = 2.2–3.3/ha) to 77.3/ha (63.2–94.4/ha), and for Gunnison's prairie dogs, estimates ranged from 11.7/ha (10.6–12.8/ha) to 15.4/ha (14.4–16.7/ha). White‐tailed prairie dogs were at their lowest density (3.3/ha, 95% CI = 2.9–3.8/ha) during the first year of the study and their highest density (14.5/ha; 13.5–15.6/ha) during the last year of the study. Utah prairie dog density estimates ranged from a low of 4.0/ha (95% CI = 3.55–4.6/ha) to a high of 20.8/ha (16.8–25.8/ha). Best‐fitting models of prairie dog density indicated increasing patterns of density over time on most study plots, negative effects of plague, and positive effects of vaccination. Finally, we found low correlations between catch per unit effort estimates from previous published literature at these sites and our densities estimates. Spatial capture‐recapture estimates allowed us to consistently compare treatment effects across space and time, although some exceptions are noted where we observed significant movement between plots within a pair (3 pairs) and when trapping effort between plots or years was not consistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electoral shocks have spillover effects in democracies, as they can change citizens' political attitudes and political behaviour across national borders. Yet, electoral shocks also exist in non-democratic regimes. Do electoral shocks likewise lead to spillover within a non-democratic regime? To explore this question, I build on Lohmann's idea of information cascade and study the spillover of the 2019 Hong Kong local election, in which the opposition won a landslide victory. Using a survey fielded in Macau during this event, I find liberalizing effects among middle-class citizens: after the electoral shock, their democratic commitment increases while their perceived electoral fairness decreases. Conversely, lower-class citizens experience backlash effects as they assess the electoral system more positively and briefly consider democracy as less important. However, these changes in political attitudes do not translate into changes in expressed vote choice and other types of political participation. Regarding the mechanism of the attitudinal change, I suggest such polarized reactions are related to the different information consumption among the two classes. I discuss how these findings contribute to the literature on non-democratic regimes, electoral shocks, and class politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A surge in banks' liquidity needs increases settlement costs that could burden the functioning of the real economy through its impact on banks' lending behavior. A liquidity saving mechanism (LSM) can help reduce banks' liquidity needs, but it could also affect banks' strategic behavior. To understand how an LSM affects banks' behavior in a real-time gross settlement system, this study models settlements in a day as a timing game in which banks decide when to make payments, thereby trading off the cost of delaying payments against the cost of borrowing liquidity. An LSM provides a partial offsetting service, whose direct effect is to decrease the cost of liquidity associated with payments that are offset. The study's stylized analyses reveal that an LSM indirectly affects banks' strategic behavior in a network context. Without an LSM, a positive strategic spillover effect can arise through the network of payments, which an LSM can dismiss by cutting off the underlying payment network. To demonstrate its welfare impact along with the network structures, this study theoretically analyzes a class of core-periphery networks. The density of the network is shown to have implications on the welfare consequence of adding an LSM. From a policy perspective, the implications on a policy mix between an LSM and the fee setting for intraday lending are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper investigates the static and dynamic directional return spillovers and dependence among green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets from January 2013 to September 2020. Design/methodology/approach: This study employed both the quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) and time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) technique to examine the magnitude of static and dynamic directional spillovers and dependence of markets. Findings: Results show that the magnitude of connectedness is extremely higher at quantile levels (q = 0.05 and q = 0.95) compared to those in the mean of the conditional distribution. This connotes that connectedness between green bonds and other assets increases with shock size for both negative and positive shocks. This further indicates that return shocks spread at a higher magnitude during extreme market conditions relative to normal periods. Additional analyses show the behavior of return transmission between green bond and other assets is asymmetric. Practical implications: The findings of this study offer significant implications for portfolio investors, policymakers, regulatory authorities and investment community in terms of carefully assessing the unique characteristics offered by each markets in terms of return spillovers and dependence and diversifying the portfolios. Originality/value: The study, first, uses a relatively new statistical technique, the QVAR advanced by Ando et al. (2018), to capture upper and lower tails' quantile price connectedness and directional spillover. Therefore, the results possess adequate power against departure from mean-based conditional connectedness. Second, using a portfolio of green investments, carbon markets, financial markets and commodity markets, the uniqueness of this study lies in the examination of the static and dynamic dependence of the markets examined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spillover is a term commonly applied to the dispersal of fish and/or larvae from inside a closed area to areas open to fishing. The presence of spillover is often quantified by measuring gradients in attributes such as abundance or catch rates near the boundaries of closed areas or by measuring higher abundance inside closed areas compared to outside. It is commonly assumed that such gradients or ratios indicate that the closed area has benefitted the fishery and the total abundance of fish. We explore this assumption using a spatially explicit model of closed areas with different intensities of fishing and fish movement, and we find that such gradients will be expected any time there is higher abundance inside the closed area. However, such gradients do not necessarily indicate a benefit to the fishery either in terms of total catch or catch rate, and unless pre-closure fishing was intense, total abundance is not expected to rise significantly. We examine case studies that argue that spillover exists and leads to fishery benefits. We then evaluate the evidence for net benefits in these case studies and find those with evidence of net benefits all come from places where fishing pressure was intense. While most analysis come from quite small coastal closed areas, two studies of very large open-ocean closed areas are discussed, and we find that both suggest little overall impact on the tuna populations that support the main commercial fisheries affected by the closures in question. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many advanced catalytic materials, different functionalities are coupled through spillover of active species across heterogeneous interfaces. In the present work, we consider the coupling of a C─C bond cleavage functionality of palladium with the self‐cleaning functionality of reducible Co3O4. On the model catalyst Pd/Co3O4(111)/Ir(100), we probed the interplay of the two functionalities for the selective decomposition of ethanol. In a systematic study, we compared the decomposition mechanisms of ethanol on Co3O4(111)/Ir(100) and Pd/Co3O4(111)/Ir(100) model catalysts using a variety of analytical techniques including synchrotron radiation photoelectron spectroscopy (SRPES), resonant photoemission spectroscopy (RPES), temperature programmed desorption (TPD), and near ambient pressure X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy (NAP‐XPS). We found that ethanol decomposes via an ethoxy intermediate yielding acetaldehyde on Co3O4(111)/Ir(100). Remarkably, the spillover of ethanol/ethoxy species on Pd/Co3O4(111)/Ir(100) results in the selective formation of methane, hydrogen, and CO. Additionally, we observed CO2 resulting from the oxidative removal of carbonaceous deposits on Pd nanoparticles via spillover of active oxygen species released by Co3O4(111)/Ir(100) at higher temperatures. The onset of product formation and the product spectrum on both Co3O4(111)/Ir(100) and Pd/Co3O4(111)/Ir(100) depend strongly on the oxidation state of Co3O4. Complete removal of lattice oxygen from Co3O4(111) results in the deposition of large amounts of carbon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While competition is an inherent element of most market activities and immanent in many organizations, competitive incentives may bring about negative externalities, such as unethical behavior. This study examines whether competition affects subsequent honesty in an unrelated task, focusing on gender differences. Our experiment, which includes a real effort task under piece rate and competitive compensation schemes, reveals no overall treatment effects on honesty. However, competition affects men and women differently: women become more honest, while men become (insignificantly) more dishonest. This results in a gender gap in post-competition honesty and, therefore, in payoffs, highlighting the importance of carefully designing incentive schemes that consider gender-specific responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging scholarship on Ukraine’s wartime European integration and the EU’s reinvigorated enlargement policy have been marked by the focus on intergovernmental matters and member states’ foreign policy coordination. This article challenges this view. First, relying on the neofunctionalist lens, it introduces the notion of a ‘super-spillover’ effect to explain the wartime intensification of Ukraine’s European integration and the plans for Ukraine’s gradual EU accession. It illustrates this notion with the case of Ukraine’s Single Market integration. Second, while reaffirming the neofunctionalism’s usefulness for explaining partner countries’ Single Market integration and EU enlargement under crises, the article points to several weaknesses of the neofunctionalist approach. They include the vagueness of the ‘geographical spillover’ concept and the lack of theorisation as to the sequencing of and the interplay between various spillover logics under crises. It thus contributes to the scholarship on neofunctionalism, EU enlargement policy, Single Market integration and EU-Ukraine relations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dispersal of propagules (seeds, spores) from a geographically isolated habitat into an uninhabitable matrix can play a decisive role in driving population dynamics. ODE and integrodifference models of these dynamics commonly feature a “dispersal success” parameter representing the average proportion of dispersing propagules that remain in viable habitat. While dispersal success can be estimated by empirical measurements or by integration of dispersal kernels, one may lack resources for fieldwork or details on dispersal kernels for numerical computation. Here we derive simple upper bounds on the proportion of propagule loss—the complement of dispersal success—that require only habitat area, habitat perimeter, and the mean dispersal distance of a propagule. Using vector calculus in a probabilistic framework, we rigorously prove bounds for the cases of both symmetric and asymmetric dispersal. We compare the bounds to simulations of integral models for the population of Asclepias syriaca (common milkweed) at McKnight Prairie—a 14 hectare reserve surrounded by agricultural fields in Goodhue County, Minnesota—and identify conditions under which the bounds closely estimate propagule loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on emotional security, stress, and spillover and crossover theories, this study aimed to examine the indirect pathways between destructive and constructive interparental conflict, parenting stress, unsupportive parenting, and child insecurity six months later. Using data from two time points beginning when Korean children (N = 159) were approximately 3–5 years old, two dual-mediation models of the relevant variables were constructed. The results indicate that destructive conflict is associated with higher levels of parenting stress, whereas constructive conflict is associated with lower levels of stress. Furthermore, mothers' and fathers' parenting stress influenced their own unsupportive parenting behaviors, which, in turn, influenced their children's insecurity, suggesting a spillover effect. However, the crossover effect and mediation analyses provided partial support for various pathways of the hypotheses. By examining both destructive and constructive conflict, including both maternal and paternal variables, and examining not only spillover but also crossover effects, this study highlights that while constructive conflict may reduce parental stress and unsupportive parenting behaviors, the negative effects of destructive conflict may affect children more strongly. Particularly, by examining the spillover and crossover effects in the unique cultural context of Korean families, this study provides important insights into interparental conflict's impact on child development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital technologies have eroded the physical and psychological boundaries that divide work versus family. As a result, a new set of skills is necessary to manage digital interferences. We use individual-level data (n = 15,049) from the 2020/22 European Social Survey of 31 countries to examine the influence of digital job demands (e.g. digital work contact) and resources (e.g. digital skills) on work-to-family spillover, which occurs when behaviors and emotions from work intrude into the family. Aligned with prior research, hierarchical linear regressions demonstrate that the demands of digital work contact (e.g. work-related emails) exacerbate work-to-family spillover, while remote work is a resource reducing spillover. We advance these insights, however, revealing digital skills as an important boundary management resource. Digital skills not only reduce work-to-family spillover but also moderate the relationships that digital work contact and remote work have with work-to-family spillover. Drawing on a job demand-resource model, we suggest that digital skills are an important, yet understudied, resource for managing the boundary permeability and flexibility afforded by work-related technologies. Given that work-to-family spillover is a stressor linked to job satisfaction and family well-being, results highlight the potential of digital skills to alleviate inequalities in work and family outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]