Search

Ice shelf instability is one of the main sources of uncertainty in Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise. Calving events play a crucial role in ice shelf weakening but remain unpredictable, and their governing processes are still poorly understood. In this study, we analyze the unexpected September 2019 calving event from the Amery Ice Shelf, the largest since 1963 and which occurred almost a decade earlier than expected, to better understand the role of the atmosphere in calving. We find that atmospheric extremes provided a deterministic role in this event. A series of anomalously deep and stationary explosive twin polar cyclones over the Cooperation and Davis seas generated tides and wind-driven ocean slope, leading to fracture amplification along the pre-existing rift and ultimately calving of the massive iceberg. The calving was triggered by high oceanward sea surface slopes produced by the storms. The observed record-anomalous atmospheric conditions were promoted by blocking ridges and Antarctic-wide anomalous poleward transport of heat and moisture. Blocking highs helped in (i) directing moist and warm air masses towards the ice shelf and (ii) maintaining the observed extreme cyclones stationary at the front of the ice shelf for several days. Accumulation of cold air over the ice sheet, due to the blocking highs, led to the formation of an intense cold high pressure over the ice sheet, which helped fuel sustained anomalously deep cyclones via increased baroclinicity. Our results stress the importance of atmospheric extremes in ice shelf dynamics via tides and sea surface slope and its need to be accounted for when considering Antarctic ice shelf variability and contribution to sea level, especially given that more of these extremes are predicted under a warmer climate.

The isotopic composition of carbon (Delta C-14 and delta C-13) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of C-14 and C-13 in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Delta C-14 and delta C-13 in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850-2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

We mapped the filamentary infrared dark cloud (IRDC) G304.74+01.32 at 350 $\mu$m with the SABOCA bolometer. The new SABOCA data have a factor of 2.2 times higher resolution than our previous LABOCA 870 $\mu$m map of the cloud. We also employed the Herschel far-IR and submillimetre, and WISE IR data available for G304.74. The SABOCA data show that G304.74 is composed of a dense filamentary structure with a mean width of only $0.18\pm0.05$ pc. The percentage of LABOCA clumps that are found to be fragmented into SABOCA cores is $36\%\pm16\%$. The WISE data suggest that $65\%\pm18\%$ of the SABOCA cores host young stellar objects (YSOs). The mean dust temperature of the clumps, derived by comparing the Herschel/SPIRE flux densities, was found to be $15.0 \pm 0.8$ K. The mean mass, beam-averaged H$_2$ column density, and H$_2$ number density of the LABOCA clumps are estimated to be $55\pm10$ M$_{\odot}$, $(2.0\pm0.2)\times10^{22}$ cm$^{-2}$, and $(3.1\pm0.2)\times10^4$ cm$^{-3}$. The corresponding values for the SABOCA cores are $29\pm3$ M$_{\odot}$, $(2.9\pm0.3)\times10^{22}$ cm$^{-2}$, and $(7.9\pm1.2)\times10^4$ cm$^{-3}$. The G304.74 filament is estimated to be thermally supercritical by a factor of $\gtrsim3.5$ on the scale probed by LABOCA, and by a factor of $ \gtrsim1.5$ for the SABOCA filament. Our data strongly suggest that G304.74 has undergone hierarchical fragmentation. The IRDC G304.74 has a seahorse-like morphology in the Herschel images, and the filament appears to be attached by elongated, perpendicular striations. Besides the presence of perpendicularly oriented, dusty striations and potential embedded intermediate-mass YSOs, G304.74 is a relatively nearby ($d\sim2.5$ kpc) IRDC, which makes it a useful target for future star formation studies. Owing to its observed morphology, we propose that G304.74 could be nicknamed the Seahorse Nebula., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, 6 tables, accepted for publication in A&A, abstract abridged for arXiv

The projected response of the atmospheric circulation to the radiative changes induced by CO2 forcing and climate feedbacks is currently uncertain. In this modeling study, the impact of CO2-induced climate feedbacks on changes in jet latitude and speed is assessed by imposing surface albedo, cloud, and water vapor feedbacks as if they were forcings in two climate models, CAM4 and ECHAM6. The jet response to radiative feedbacks can be broadly interpreted through changes in midlatitude baroclinicity. Clouds enhance baroclinicity, favoring a strengthened, poleward-shifted jet; this is mitigated by surface albedo changes, which have the opposite effect on baroclinicity and the jet, while water vapor has opposing effects on upper- and lower-level baroclinicity with little net impact on the jet. Large differences between the CAM4 and ECHAM6 responses illustrate how model uncertainty in radiative feedbacks causes a large spread in the baroclinicity response to CO2 forcing. Across the CMIP5 models, differences in shortwave feedbacks by clouds and albedo are a dominant contribution to this spread. Forcing CAM4 with shortwave cloud and albedo feedbacks from a representative set of CMIP5 models yields a wide range of jet responses that strongly correlate with the meridional gradient of the anomalous shortwave heating and the associated baroclinicity response. Differences in shortwave feedbacks statistically explain about 50% of the intermodel spread in CMIP5 jet shifts for the set of models used, demonstrating the importance of constraining radiative feedbacks for accurate projections of circulation changes.

The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850–2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

The area of forests planted with exotic tree species is increasing worldwide in order to fulfill various economic and environmental demands. Numerous species currently used in forest plantations are considered to be invasive in many parts of the world. Exotic plantation tree species are endowed with a series of life-history traits that are characteristic of invasive species: easy establishment, fast growth, high propagule pressure, and low or intermediate shade tolerance. In addition, plantation forestry presents many features that increase ecosystem invasibility, including a regime of frequent and intensive canopy disturbances, a dense network of roads and trails with continuous traffic, and wide plantation areas. Exotic trees planted for production purposes have strong direct positive economic impacts on the local and national economies of many countries, often leading to notable conflicts of interest when the species becomes invasive, as well as to negative impacts on the ecosystem. Studies and management programs mainly focus on Pinus and Acacia, which are used as model species. Complementary management strategies have been established to control these species at different stages of the invasion process. Knowledge gained is useful to predict problems in other regions of the world with the same species and to guide research or management actions on other problematic but less studied tree species.

The Dwingeloo 25-m telesope, inaugurated in 1956, has played a major role in research for half a century. We trace its history back to its conception in 1944, and summarize its main achievements. (c) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

The latest polar version of the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3) has been applied to the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). In this study, the authors present results of a climate run at 5.5 km for the period 1979–2013, in which RACMO2.3 is forced by ERA-Interim atmospheric and ocean surface fields, using an updated AP surface topography. The model results are evaluated with near-surface temperature and wind measurements from 12 manned and automatic weather stations and vertical profiles from balloon soundings made at three stations. The seasonal cycle of near-surface temperature and wind is simulated well, with most biases still related to the limited model resolution. High-resolution climate maps of temperature and wind showing that the AP climate exhibits large spatial variability are discussed. Over the steep and high mountains of the northern AP, large west-to-east climate gradients exist, while over the gentle southern AP mountains the near-surface climate is dominated by katabatic winds. Over the flat ice shelves, where katabatic wind forcing is weak, interannual variability in temperature is largest. Finally, decadal trends of temperature and wind are presented, and it is shown that recently there has been distinct warming over the northwestern AP and cooling over the rest of the AP, related to changes in sea ice cover.

Species of the ascomycete genus Mycosphaerella are regarded as some of the most destructive leaf pathogens of a large number of economically important crop plants. Amongst these, approximately 60 Mycosphaerella spp. have been identified from various Eucalyptus spp. where they cause leaf diseases collectively known as Mycosphaerella Leaf Disease (MLD). Species concepts for this group of fungi remain confused, and hence their species identification is notoriously difficult. Thus, the introduction of DNA sequence comparisons has become the definitive characteristic used to distinguish species of Mycosphaerella. Sequences of the Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region of the ribosomal RNA operon have most commonly been used to consider species boundaries in Mycosphaerella. However, sequences for this gene region do not always provide sufficient resolution for cryptic taxa. The aim of this study was, therefore, to use DNA sequences for three loci, ITS, Elongation factor 1-alpha (EF-1) and Actin (ACT) to reconsider species boundaries for Mycosphaerella spp. from Eucalyptus. A further aim was to study the anamorph concepts and resolve the deeper nodes of Mycosphaerella, for which part of the Large Subunit (LSU) of the nuclear rRNA operon was sequenced. The ITS and EF-1 gene regions were found to be useful, but the ACT gene region did not provide species-level resolution in Mycosphaerella. A phylogeny of the combined DNA datasets showed that species of Mycosphaerella from Eucalyptus cluster in two distinct groups, which might ultimately represent discrete genera.

The vertical structure and evolution of the wintertime annular modes are studied using 6 years of geopotential height, carbon monoxide (CO), and water vapor (H2O) data from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder. The Northern Hemisphere annular mode (NAM) and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) reveal a strong coupling of the dynamics in the stratosphere and mesosphere between 316 hPa (similar to 9 km) and 0.002 hPa (similar to 90 km). CO is a good tracer throughout the middle atmosphere, while variable vertical gradients of H2O limit the regions where it is useful as a dynamical tracer. The maximum of the CO NAM and SAM (CNAM and CSAM) indices is used to monitor and characterize the evolution of wintertime polar dynamics as a function of time and height. The CNAM analysis reveals reformation of a stronger mesospheric polar vortex after significant stratospheric sudden warmings in 2006, 2009, and 2010. There is a significant anticorrelation between the mesospheric and stratospheric CNAM indices during 2005-2010 winters, supporting the hypothesis of mesosphere-stratosphere coupling through planetary-gravity wave interactions.

A continuous tropospheric and stratospheric vertically resolved ozone time series, from 1850 to 2099, has been generated to be used as forcing in global climate models that do not include interactive chemistry. A multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements is used for the stratospheric zonal mean dataset during the well-observed period from 1979 to 2009. In addition to terms describing the mean annual cycle, the regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and the 11-yr solar cycle variability. The EESC regression fit coefficients, together with pre-1979 EESC values, are used to extrapolate the stratospheric ozone time series backward to 1850. While a similar procedure could be used to extrapolate into the future, coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations indicate that future stratospheric ozone abundances are likely to be significantly affected by climate change, and capturing such effects through a regression model approach is not feasible. Therefore, the stratospheric ozone dataset is extended into the future (merged in 2009) with multi-model mean projections from 13 CCMs that performed a simulation until 2099 under the SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1B greenhouse gas scenario and the A1 adjusted halogen scenario in the second round of the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal-2) Activity. The stratospheric zonal mean ozone time series is merged with a three-dimensional tropospheric data set extracted from simulations of the past by two CCMs (CAM3.5 and GISS-PUCCINI) and of the future by one CCM (CAM3.5). The future tropospheric ozone time series continues the historical CAM3.5 simulation until 2099 following the four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Generally good agreement is found between the historical segment of the ozone database and satellite observations, although it should be noted that total column ozone is overestimated in the southern polar latitudes during spring and tropospheric column ozone is slightly underestimated. Vertical profiles of tropospheric ozone are broadly consistent with ozonesondes and in-situ measurements, with some deviations in regions of biomass burning. The tropospheric ozone radiative forcing (RF) from the 1850s to the 2000s is 0.23 W m−2, lower than previous results. The lower value is mainly due to (i) a smaller increase in biomass burning emissions; (ii) a larger influence of stratospheric ozone depletion on upper tropospheric ozone at high southern latitudes; and possibly (iii) a larger influence of clouds (which act to reduce the net forcing) compared to previous radiative forcing calculations. Over the same period, decreases in stratospheric ozone, mainly at high latitudes, produce a RF of −0.08 W m−2, which is more negative than the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) value of −0.05 W m−2, but which is within the stated range of −0.15 to +0.05 W m−2. The more negative value is explained by the fact that the regression model simulates significant ozone depletion prior to 1979, in line with the increase in EESC and as confirmed by CCMs, while the AR4 assumed no change in stratospheric RF prior to 1979. A negative RF of similar magnitude persists into the future, although its location shifts from high latitudes to the tropics. This shift is due to increases in polar stratospheric ozone, but decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, related to a strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, particularly through the latter half of the 21st century. Differences in trends in tropospheric ozone among the four RCPs are mainly driven by different methane concentrations, resulting in a range of tropospheric ozone RFs between 0.4 and 0.1 W m−2 by 2100. The ozone dataset described here has been released for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model simulations in netCDF Climate and Forecast (CF) Metadata Convention at the PCMDI website (http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/).

The accuracy of horizontal winds and temperature in the equatorial lower stratosphere is evaluated in different (re) analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis, ERA Interim, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) using an independent data set collected at low latitudes during long-duration balloon flights in early 2010. The three analyzed wind products are found significantly less accurate than in the extratropics, with periods of greater than or similar to 10 m/s disagreement with the observations lasting several days. To highlight the dynamical context in which the major disagreement events occur, case studies are carried out. The events are shown to be related to an improper representation of large-scale equatorial Kelvin and Yanai wave packets with vertical wavelengths smaller than 5 km. Such events can induce large errors on trajectories computed with analyzed winds relatively to the actual (balloon) trajectory: 4000 km separation after 5 days of calculation. Reasons for analyses inaccuracy are discussed. The vertical resolution of the underlying model likely plays a role, but the main factor responsible for deficiencies appears to be the lack of wind observations. Indeed, errors in analyzed winds during the campaign have a strong longitudinal structure, with root-mean-square errors twice as large over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, poorly covered by radiosounding stations, as over the Maritime Continent or South America. For the ECMWF analysis, this structure mirrors that of the analysis increments, which have largest amplitudes over observed regions. We argue that the reported events are more likely to happen during maximum shear phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation.

An unusually strong and prolonged stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in January 2006 was the first major SSW for which globally distributed long-lived trace gas data are available covering the upper troposphere through the lower mesosphere. We use Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) data, the SLIMCAT Chemistry Transport Model (CTM), and assimilated meteorological analyses to provide a comprehensive picture of transport during this event. The upper tropospheric ridge that triggered the SSW was associated with an elevated tropopause and layering in trace gas profiles in conjunction with stratospheric and tropospheric intrusions. Anomalous poleward transport (with corresponding quasi-isentropic troposphere-to-stratosphere exchange at the lowest levels studied) in the region over the ridge extended well into the lower stratosphere. In the middle and upper stratosphere, the breakdown of the polar vortex transport barrier was seen in a signature of rapid, widespread mixing in trace gases, including CO, H2O, CH4 and N2O. The vortex broke down slightly later and more slowly in the lower than in the middle stratosphere. In the middle and lower stratosphere, small remnants with trace gas values characteristic of the pre-SSW vortex lingered through the weak and slow recovery of the vortex. The upper stratospheric vortex quickly reformed, and, as enhanced diabatic descent set in, CO descended into this strong vortex, echoing the fall vortex development. Trace gas evolution in the SLIMCAT CTM agrees well with that in the satellite trace gas data from the upper troposphere through the middle stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, the SLIMCAT simulation does not capture the strong descent of mesospheric CO and H2O values into the reformed vortex; this poor CTM performance in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere results primarily from biases in the diabatic descent in assimilated analyses.

The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) has been operating since March 2002 onboard of the ENVIronmental SATellite of the European Space Agency (ESA). The high resolution (0.035 cm-1 full width half maximum, unapodized) limb-emission measurements acquired by MIPAS in the first two years of operation have very good geographical and temporal coverage and have been re-processed by ESA with the most recent versions (4.61 and 4.62) of the inversion algorithms. The products of this processing chain are pressures at the tangent points and geolocated profiles of temperature and of the volume mixing ratios of six key atmospheric constituents: H2O, O3, HNO3, CH4, N2O and NO2. As for all the measurements made with innovative instruments and techniques, this data set requires a thorough validation. In this paper we present a geophysical validation of the temperature profiles derived from MIPAS measurements by the ESA retrieval algorithm. The validation is carried-out by comparing MIPAS temperature with correlative measurements made by radiosondes, lidars, in-situ and remote sensors operated either from the ground or stratospheric balloons. The results of the intercomparison indicate that the bias of the MIPAS profiles is generally smaller than 1 or 2 K depending on altitude. Furthermore we find that, especially at the edges of the altitude range covered by the MIPAS scan, the random error estimated from the intercomparison is larger (typically by a factor of two to three) than the corresponding estimate derived on the basis of error propagation. In this work we also characterize the discrepancies between MIPAS temperature and the temperature fields resulting from the analyses of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The bias and the standard deviation of these discrepancies are consistent with those obtained when comparing MIPAS to correlative measurements; however, in this case the detected bias has a peculiar behavior as a function of altitude. This behavior is very similar to that observed in previous studies and is suspected to be due to vertical oscillations in the ECMWF temperature. The current understanding is that, at least in the upper stratosphere (above 10 hPa), these oscillations are caused by a discrepancy between model biases and biases of assimilated radiances from primarily nadir sounders.

Species of the ascomycete genus Mycosphaerella are regarded as some of the most destructive leaf pathogens of a large number of economically important crop plants. Amongst these, approximately 60 Mycosphaerella spp. have been identified from various Eucalyptus spp. where they cause leaf diseases collectively known as Mycosphaerella Leaf Disease (MLD). Species concepts for this group of fungi remain confused, and hence their species identification is notoriously difficult. Thus, the introduction of DNA sequence comparisons has become the definitive characteristic used to distinguish species of Mycosphaerella. Sequences of the Internal Transcribed Spacer (ITS) region of the ribosomal RNA operon have most commonly been used to consider species boundaries in Mycosphaerella. However, sequences for this gene region do not always provide sufficient resolution for cryptic taxa. The aim of this study was, therefore, to use DNA sequences for three loci, ITS, Elongation factor 1-alpha (EF-1{alpha}) and Actin (ACT) to reconsider species boundaries for Mycosphaerella spp. from Eucalyptus. A further aim was to study the anamorph concepts and resolve the deeper nodes of Mycosphaerella, for which part of the Large Subunit (LSU) of the nuclear rRNA operon was sequenced. The ITS and EF-1{alpha} gene regions were found to be useful, but the ACT gene region did not provide species-level resolution in Mycosphaerella. A phylogeny of the combined DNA datasets showed that species of Mycosphaerella from Eucalyptus cluster in two distinct groups, which might ultimately represent discrete genera.

The EOLE Experiment is revisited to study turbulent processes in the lower stratosphere circulation from a Lagrangian viewpoint and resolve a discrepancy on the slope of the atmospheric energy spectrum between the work of Morel and Larcheveque (1974) and recent studies using aircraft data. Relative dispersion of balloon pairs is studied by calculating the Finite Scale Lyapunov Exponent, an exit time-based technique which is particularly efficient in cases where processes with different spatial scales are interfering. Our main result is to reconciliate the EOLE dataset with recent studies supporting a k^{-5/3} energy spectrum in the range 100-1000 km. Our results also show exponential separation at smaller scale, with characteristic time of order 1 day, and agree with the standard diffusion of about 10^7 m^2/s at large scales. A still open question is the origin of a k^{-5/3} spectrum in the mesoscale range, between 100 and 1000 km., 19 pages, 1 table + 5 (pdf) figures

The geographic and seasonal emission distributions of the major sources and sinks of atmospheric methane were compiled using methane flux measurements and energy and agricultural statistics in conjunction with global digital data bases of land surface characteristics and anthropogenic activities. Chemical destruction of methane in the atmosphere was calculated using three-dimensional OH fields every 5 days taken from Spivakovsky et al. (1990a, b). The signatures of each of the sources and sinks in the atmosphere were simulated using a global three-dimensional tracer transport model. Candidate methane budget scenarios were constructed according to mass balance of methane and its carbon isotopes. The verisimilitude of the scenarios was tested by their ability to reproduce the meridional gradient and seasonal variations of methane observed in the atmosphere. Constraints imposed by all the atmospheric observations are satisfied simultaneously by several budget scenarios. A preferred budget comprises annual destruction rates of 450 Tg by OH oxidation and 10 Tg by soil absorption and annual emissions of 80 Tg from fossil sources, 80 Tg from domestic animals, and 35 Tg from wetlands and tundra poleward of 50°N. Emissions from landfills, tropical swamps, rice fields, biomass burning, and termites total 295 Tg; however, the individual contributions of these terms cannot be determined uniquely because of the lack of measurements of direct fluxes and of atmospheric methane variations in regions where these sources are concentrated.