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Many meteorological organizations plan to substantially increase the resolution of the limited-area models used for severe weather prediction. Such an approach does not guarantee a priori the reduction of the uncertainty of the decision maker in the prediction of severe weather impact. A deep moist convective process, a supercell, is studied in a simplified atmospheric scenario by means of high-resolution numerical simulations with the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model. Different turbulence closure models and their impact on the spatiotemporal properties of storm processes are discussed. In the range of grid spacing between 1 km and 100 m, also termed 'terra incognita,' the simulations of a supercell converge with respect to flow field structure, transport properties, and precipitation fields when a turbulence closure derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) is used. In contrast, more simplified turbulence closures such as 1D (vertical) boundary layer approximations yield substantially worse results than the 0.2-km LES reference simulation. DOI: 10.1175/2010JAS3359.1

Highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems represent one of the most dangerous flash-flood producing storms in the north-western Mediterranean area. Substantial warming of the Mediterranean Sea in recent decades raises concerns over possible increases in frequency or intensity of these types of events as increased atmospheric temperatures generally support increases in water vapor content. However, analyses of the historical record do not provide a univocal answer, but these are likely affected by a lack of detailed observations for older events. In the present study, 20th Century Reanalysis Project initial and boundary condition data in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: The San Fruttuoso case of 1915. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that show strong convergence over the Liguria sea, as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event. It is found that these WRF runs generally do show wind and precipitation fields that are consistent with the occurrence of highly localized and persistent back-building mesoscale convective systems, although precipitation peak amounts are underestimated. Systematic small north-westward position errors with regard to the heaviest rain and strongest convergence areas imply that the Reanalysis members may not be adequately representing the amount of cool air over the Po Plain outflowing into the Liguria Sea through the Apennines gap. Regarding the role of historical data sources, this study shows that in addition to Reanalysis products, unconventional data, such as historical meteorological bulletins newspapers and even photographs can be very valuable sources of knowledge in the reconstruction of past extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The erosional development of drainage networks is analyzed by modeling two-dimensional flow of water and sediment over a bare slope. Deterministic equations of mass and momentum conservation are coupled with random fluctuations of sediment pickup and transportation processes acting at the hydrodynamic scale. These fluctuations are then shown to be able to provide an active source of channelization at the hillslope scale. Controlled experiments are also carried out by simulation runs aimed at investigating model performance (1) to describe formation of natural drainage patterns, (2) to account for different factors (i.e., soil characteristics, hillslope geometry, and rainfall intensity) which control network formation and development, and (3) to reproduce differentiation of drainage patterns due to above factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]