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The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is one of the most remarkable structural features of the Earth's magnetic field. The region is characterized by weak magnetic field intensity. Because of this weakening, particles within the inner radiation belt can mirror at lower altitudes, consequently increasing the local particle flux. Over centuries, the SAA has displayed notable secular variation (SV) characteristics, with a consistent decline in strength, expansion in area, and an overall westward drift. Both paleomagnetic and modern magnetic data indicate that SAA is currently undergoing rapid changes, with a rapid expansion in area and a rapid decreasing in intensity. These changes are coinciding with an increasing field asymmetry. Recent observations suggest that the evolution of SAA has become increasingly anisotropic, showing two magnetic intensity minima. This may indicate that the evolution of SAA has entered a new stage, which has aroused people's attention and discussion on the long-term evolution and future of SAA. The manifestation of the SAA on the Earth’s surface corresponds to the response of an inverse flux path at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) to the radial component of the geomagnetic field, positioned approximately beneath the South Atlantic Ocean. Consequently, studying the SV of SAA can understand the details of the Earth's internal dynamics. Moreover, these SV scenarios provide some speculative predictions for the SAA. The evolutionary details of SAA not only serve as a reference for future trends but also imposes additional constraints on Earth's core dynamic model, rendering it a compelling subject for scholarly inquiry. In this paper, we review the results of paleomagnetic and modern geomagnetic models concerning the past, present, and future evolution of the SAA, while also summarizing advancements in understanding the origin of this anomaly.

Earth's magnetic field is generated through the dynamo action in the liquid outer core. Using observational data from geomagnetic satellites and observatories, we can construct geomagnetic models that describe spatial and temporal variations of the core field. Due to the limited temporal and spatial resolution of observations and incomplete parameterization of the model, the inversion problem of geomagnetic field modeling is non-unique. Therefore, we need to incorporate regularization constraints based on prior information to alleviate the non-uniqueness of the inversion problem for geomagnetic modeling. For the core field, the non-uniqueness of modeling inversion manifests in the temporal variations of the field. Studies on the influence of regularization can help us build more reliable core field models, especially on how to suppress artificial secular variations through regularizations. In this study, we construct a series of models based on different regularization parameters within the framework of CHAOS modeling to explore the impact of regularization on the core field modeling. Our results indicate that it is necessary to use regularization constraints for the core field modeling based solely on satellite data. By comparing models with different regularization intensities of the third time derivative of the core field, we show that regularization of the third time derivative with appropriate intensity can effectively suppress artificial signals caused by overfitting of the model to observational data. However, too strong regularizations will reduce the temporal resolution of small-scale secular variations.

The end-Triassic extinction (ETE) on land was synchronous with the initial lavas of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) and occurred just after the brief 26 thousand year (kyr) reverse geomagnetic polarity Chron E23r that can be used for global correlation. Lava-by- lava paleomagnetic secular variation data, previously reported from Morocco and northeastern United States combined with our data for the North Mountain Basalt from the Fundy Basin of Canada show that the initial phase of CAMP volcanism occurred in only five directional groups or pulses each occupying less than a century. The first four directional groups occur during a ~40 kyr period based on available astrochronology and U-Pb geochronology. The coincidence of the initial major pulse of CAMP volcanism with the ETE points to short-lived volcanic winters albedo-induced by sulfate aerosols as a plausible key agent of the extinctions in the tropical continental realm, whereas looser correlations allow prolonged CO2 emissions to contribute to more long-ranging effects in the marine realm via ocean acidification and longer-term warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Reviews of Geophysics & Planetary Physics is the property of Editorial Office of Reviews of Geophysics & Planetary Physics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Reviews of Geophysics & Planetary Physics is the property of Editorial Office of Reviews of Geophysics & Planetary Physics and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Sampling strategies used in paleomagnetic studies play a crucial role in dictating the accuracy of our estimates of properties of the ancient geomagnetic field. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of optimal paleomagnetic sampling strategies and the community has instead defaulted to traditional practices that vary between laboratories. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of alternative paleomagnetic sampling strategies through numerical experiments and an associated analytical framework. Our findings demonstrate a strong correspondence between the accuracy of an estimated paleopole position and the number of sites or independent readings of the time-varying paleomagnetic field, whereas larger numbers of in-site samples have a dwindling effect. This remains true even when a large proportion of the sample directions are spurious. This approach can be readily achieved in sedimentary sequences by distributing samples stratigraphically, considering each sample as an individual site. However, where the number of potential independent sites is inherently limited the collection of additional in-site samples can improve the accuracy of the paleopole estimate (although with diminishing returns with increasing samples per site). Where an estimate of the magnitude of paleosecular variation is sought, multiple in-site samples should be taken, but the optimal number is dependent on the expected fraction of outliers. The use of filters based on angular distance helps the accuracy of paleopole estimation, but leads to inaccurate estimates of paleosecular variation. We provide both analytical formulas and a series of interactive Jupyter notebooks allowing optimal sampling strategies to be developed from user-informed expectations.

The secular variation of the geomagnetic field is the temporal variation that takes place in the field on time scales between few years to hundreds or thousands of years. On the other hand, impulses or ”geomagnetic jerks” indicate a rapid change in the slope of the secular variation. The origin of these phenomena is linked to the behavior of the geodynamo and the contribution of the outer mantle-core interaction.ROMP (acronym from spanish “ Red de Observatorios Magnéticos Permanentes”) is composed by the following observatories: ”Las Acacias ”(LAS) at Buenos Aires,” Trelew ”(TRW) at Chubut,” Pilar ”(PIL) at Córdoba and ”Orcadas”(ORC) at the Argentine sector in Antartic; the first two depend on the National University of La Plata and the latter on the National Meteorological Service. In the present work one analyzes the secular variation and the determination of jerks in the geomagnetic elements recorded at the ROMP stations, in historical times up to the present.

Fluctuations in the geomagnetic field occur over a broad range of timescales. Short‐period fluctuations are called secular variation, whereas excursions and reversals are viewed as anomalous transient events. An open question is whether distinct mechanisms are required to account for these different forms of variability. Clues are sought in trends b of the axial dipole moment from six time‐dependent geomagnetic field models. Variability in b has a well‐defined dependence on the time interval (or window) for the trend. The variance of b reveals a simple relationship to trends during excursions and reversals. This connection hints at a link between reversals, excursions and secular variation. Stochastic models exhibit a similar behavior in response to random fluctuations in dipole generation. We find that excursions, reversals and secular variation can be distinguished on the basis of trend durations rather than differences in the underlying physical process. While this analysis does not rule out distinct physical mechanisms, the paleomagnetic observations suggest that such distinctions are not required. Plain Language Summary: Geomagnetic field models capture details of excursions and reversals over the past 2 Myr. A comparison of these transient events with field behavior during times of stable polarity offers insights into the underlying physical mechanisms. The focus of comparison is the trend of the axial dipole moment over a prescribed duration. Six geomagnetic field models reveal consistent and predictable changes in the variance of dipole trends as a function of duration. Trends into reversals and excursions can also be recovered from the geomagnetic field models. A simple relationship between transient events and the trends during stable polarity hints at a common underlying mechanism. This connection is supported by a stochastic model for dipole fluctuations, which is capable of reproducing the observed changes in the trend variance with duration. The same model quantitatively reproduces the relationship between transient events and secular variation. Given that trends in the stochastic model are driven entirely by fluctuations in dipole generation, a similar interpretation may account for excursions, reversals and secular variation without requiring different physical mechanisms. Key Points: Statistics of dipole trends are computed for six paleomagnetic field modelsTrends during excursions and reversals are linked to variability during stable polarityA relationship between excursions, reversals and secular variation suggests a common underlying mechanism [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract High-resolution dating of volcanic rocks is the foundation for understanding the evolution of volcanoes and for estimating possible hazards. However, dating is often difficult for submarine volcanoes, where radiocarbon or other dating is frequently unavailable or imprecise. Here, we report paleointensity results from submarine basalts around Izu-Oshima Island, a typical island-arc volcano, and their bearing on age constraints. Basaltic lava samples were collected from submarine ridges located southeast of Izu-Oshima Island. Rock magnetic data indicate that the samples contain Ti-rich titanomagnetite with blocking temperatures of around 250–400 °C. The magnetic properties of the samples do not change significantly when heated in Ar or vacuum. We apply the Tsunakawa-Shaw method to estimate absolute paleointensity. Samples from different submarine ridges show distinct behavior. One ridge (SE1) shows moderate paleointensity of about 37 μT, while another ridge (SE3) records relatively strong magnetic fields of about 60 μT. Comparing those results with regional paleointensity data, we estimate the age of the SE1 ridge to be younger than 0.5 ka or around 1.4 ka. The other ridge (SE2) exhibits different paleointensity for two samples obtained from different localities, implying that the ridge consists of multiple eruptions. These results demonstrate that paleomagnetism can improve the dating of submarine volcanic rocks. Graphical Abstract

High-resolution dating of volcanic rocks is the foundation for understanding the evolution of volcanoes and for estimating possible hazards. However, dating is often difficult for submarine volcanoes, where radiocarbon or other dating is frequently unavailable or imprecise. Here, we report paleointensity results from submarine basalts around Izu-Oshima Island, a typical island-arc volcano, and their bearing on age constraints. Basaltic lava samples were collected from submarine ridges located southeast of Izu-Oshima Island. Rock magnetic data indicate that the samples contain Ti-rich titanomagnetite with blocking temperatures of around 250–400 °C. The magnetic properties of the samples do not change significantly when heated in Ar or vacuum. We apply the Tsunakawa-Shaw method to estimate absolute paleointensity. Samples from different submarine ridges show distinct behavior. One ridge (SE1) shows moderate paleointensity of about 37 μT, while another ridge (SE3) records relatively strong magnetic fields of about 60 μT. Comparing those results with regional paleointensity data, we estimate the age of the SE1 ridge to be younger than 0.5 ka or around 1.4 ka. The other ridge (SE2) exhibits different paleointensity for two samples obtained from different localities, implying that the ridge consists of multiple eruptions. These results demonstrate that paleomagnetism can improve the dating of submarine volcanic rocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Fluctuations in the geomagnetic field occur over a broad range of timescales. Short‐period fluctuations are called secular variation, whereas excursions and reversals are viewed as anomalous transient events. An open question is whether distinct mechanisms are required to account for these different forms of variability. Clues are sought in trends b of the axial dipole moment from six time‐dependent geomagnetic field models. Variability in b has a well‐defined dependence on the time interval (or window) for the trend. The variance of b reveals a simple relationship to trends during excursions and reversals. This connection hints at a link between reversals, excursions and secular variation. Stochastic models exhibit a similar behavior in response to random fluctuations in dipole generation. We find that excursions, reversals and secular variation can be distinguished on the basis of trend durations rather than differences in the underlying physical process. While this analysis does not rule out distinct physical mechanisms, the paleomagnetic observations suggest that such distinctions are not required.

The improvement of the archaeomagnetic dating method requires compiling new and older data of the Earth's magnetic field (EMF) variations for the last millennia. Combustion events from fumier sequences have been proposed as good directional EMF recorders. However, they are subjected to diverse taphonomical processes and how these affect the archaeomagnetic record has not yet been studied. In order to evaluate it, here we report the first archaeomagnetic and rock-magnetic results on samples from experimentally recreated fumiers since 2014 under controlled conditions. A facies description with unprecedent resolution was used to study the variation of magnetic properties in depth. Rock-magnetic analyses indicate a homogenous magnetic mineralogy dominated by pseudo-single domain magnetite as main carrier in all facies, with not very high and similar contribution of the finest (superparamagnetic) grains. The low values of anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) indicate that the studied sample set is mainly isotropic. The directional behaviour in well-preserved burned facies (here described as G, LM and DGB), are jointly characterized by highly reversible thermomagnetic curves, high Koenigberger (Q n) ratio values and intense, univectorial and normal polarity orthogonal NRM demagnetization diagrams. On the contrary, specimens affected by mechanical alteration processes are less magnetic and show anomalous directional behaviours. The high thermomagnetic reversibility of ashes indicates that they reached ca. 600–700 °C, in line with the thermocouples' data. Temperatures of 460 °C were obtained for the DGB facies (subyacent black carbonaceous facies). Sampling of ashes located on the top of these combustion events should be avoided for archaeomagnetism. Being just beneath the last stabling episode they are the most prone to undergo mechanical alterations and do not preserve well the Earth's magnetic field direction. Despite their unlithified nature and the multiple taphonomic processes that fumier sequences may undergo, under certain quality criteria, they are valid geomagnetic field recorders providing both information of archaeological and geophysical interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study characterizes the paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) in five Holocene records from Eastern North America. We have determined equi-spaced (100-year) declination and inclination time series for the five sites and compared their directional variability. We note ten correlatable features in both inclination and declination, which indicate that these five PSV records all lie within the same PSV region. We focus on clockwise or counter-clockwise looping of paleomagnetic directions (termed circularity) in these PSV records. We have used two techniques to estimate the circularity. We have first calculated the rate and direction of motion in 200-year intervals for each record. We have also looked for discernable looping (full loops down to 1/2 loops) in individual records. We estimate the loop sizes, durations, and circularity direction. We note the same pattern of circularity in both methods. There are seven intervals of alternating circularity in all five sites. They normally agree in timing and direction of circularity. Both methods suggest an alternating, teeter-totter like, behavior to PSV circularity. This teeter-totter behavior is unbalanced with more time spent in counter-clockwise motion than in clockwise motion. The loops have a distribution of sizes and durations with smaller loops being shorter in duration (400-800 years) and bigger loops having longer durations (600-1,200 years). The teeter-totter alternation of clockwise versus counter-clockwise circularity is distinctive and may be a normal aspect of PSV. The alternation is not consistent with several traditional ideas about fluid flow (drift, whirling motion, simple convection) in the outer core. Recent studies have identified torsional oscillations as a source for both historical short-term (decadal) and millennial-scale (103) secular variation. Such a pattern of fluid flow might create the alternating teeter-totter-like behavior of circularity that we see. All five PSV records also display five short (<400 years) intervals of higher-amplitude acceleration and faster PSV rates. These features are analogous to geomagnetic jerks in that they are short intervals of anomalous acceleration. Previous studies showed evidence in PSV for similar anomalous acceleration intervals (~102yrs). We think our anomalous intervals are comparable to them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Earth’s magnetic field originated in the fluid core, the so-called core field, is the dominant contribution to the geomagnetic field. Since ancient times, the core geomagnetic field has been used primarily for geographical orientation and navigation by means of compasses. Nowadays, thanks to the large amount of geomagnetic data available, core field models can be developed on a global or regional scale. Global models resolve large-scale geomagnetic field features, while regional models can resolve greater detail over a particular region. The spherical harmonic cap analysis is a widely used technique for regional-scale modelling of the geomagnetic field. In this work we have developed a regional model of the core field and its secular variation between 2014.5 and 2020.5 over the Iberian Peninsula, based on data from Swarm satellites, geomagnetic observatories and repeat stations. Its performance has been validated by comparing the fit to the available geomagnetic data using the regional model and the global models IGRF and CHAOS over the whole spatio-temporal range studied. In order to optimise the model, a detailed study of its input parameters has been carried out, showing that not all parameters have an equal influence on the modelling. This new model reproduces the input data with a root mean square error of 2.9 nT, improving the outcome of global models on this region. The results of this work will allow the Spanish Instituto Geográfico Nacional to produce the magnetic cartography of Iberia and the Balearic Islands in 2020.0, which for the first time will be based on a regional core field model, replacing the polynomial variation method used in the past. Graphical abstract

Earth’s magnetic field is a dynamic, changing phenomenon. The geomagnetic field consists of contributions from several sources, of which the main field originating in Earth’s core makes up the bulk. On regional and local scales at Earth’s surface, the lithospheric field can make a substantial contribution to the overall field and therefore needs to be considered in field models. A locally derived regional core field model, named HMOREG, has been shown to give accurate predictions of the southern African region. In this study, a new regional field model called the South African Regional Core and Crust model (SARCC) is introduced. This is the first time that a local lithospheric model, estimated by employing the revised spherical cap harmonic analysis modelling method, has been combined with the core component of CHAOS-6, a global field model. It is compared here with the existing regional field model as well as with global core field models. The SARCC model shows small-scale variations that are not present in the other three models. Including a lithospheric magnetic field component likely contributed to the better performance of the SARCC model when compared to other global and local field models. The SARCC model showed a 33% reduction in error compared to surface observations obtained from field surveys and INTERMAGNET stations in the Y component, and HMOREG showed a 7% reduction in error compared to the global field models. The new model can easily be updated with global geomagnetic models that incorporate the most recent, state-of-the-art core and magnetospheric field models. Significance: Earth’s magnetic field is an integral part of many current navigational methods in use. Updates of geomagnetic field models are required to ensure the accuracy of maps, navigation, and positioning information. The SARCC regional geomagnetic field model introduced here was compared with global geomagnetic field models, and the inclusion of a lithospheric magnetic field component likely contributed to the better performance of the SARCC model. This regional model of southern Africa could easily be updated on a regular basis, and used for high-resolution information on the Earth’s magnetic field for the wider scientific community.

The secular variation in the global geomagnetic field was analyzed in terms of the annual differences in monthly means by using the hourly mean data from 18 foreign (outside China) observatories of the World Data Center (WDC) for Geomagnetism from January 2010 to January 2020 as well as 9 observatories in the Geomagnetic Network of China from January 2015 to April 2021. In addition, according to the correlation of noisy components from the observatories, a covariance matrix was constructed based on residuals between observations and the CHAOS-7.4 model to remove external contamination. Through a comparison before and after denoising, we found that the overall average standard deviations were reduced by 29.97% in China and by 41.4% outside China. Results showed the correlation coefficient between external noise (mainly the magnetosphere ring current) and the Dst index was 0.82, and the correlation coefficient between external noise and the Ring Current (RC) index reached 0.94. A geomagnetic jerk was globally discovered around 2018.0 on the geomagnetic eastward component Y. The jerk timing in China was around 2020.0, and the earliest one was in 2018.75, whereas the timing outside China was around 2018.0, and the earliest one was in 2017.67. This 2-year lag may have been caused by the higher electrical conductivity of the deep mantle. After more data were added, this jerk event was found to occur in an orderly manner in the northern hemisphere as the longitude increased and the intensity gradually increased as well. The variations in location of the jerk center were analyzed according to the CHAOS-7.4 model. Results revealed six extreme points distributed nearby the equator. The strongest was near the equator, at 170°E, and the strength gradually decreased as it extended to the northern and southern hemispheres. Another extreme point with the opposite sign was located at the equator, at 20°W, in the south-central part of the Atlantic, and the strength gradually decreased as it extended into Europe. The covariance matrix method can be used to analyze data from the Macau Science Satellite-1 mission in the future, and this method is expected to play a positive role in modeling and separating the large-scale external field.

Earth's magnetic field, which is generated in the liquid outer core through the dynamo action, undergoes changes on timescales of a few years to several million years, yet the underlying mechanisms responsible for the field variations remain to be elucidated. In this study, we apply a novel data analysis technique developed in fluid dynamics, namely the dynamic mode decomposition, to analyze the geomagnetic variations over the last two decades when continuous satellite observations are available. The dominant dynamic modes are extracted by solving an eigen-value problem, so one can identify modes with periods longer than the time span of data. Our analysis show that similar dynamic modes are extracted from the geomagnetic secular variation and secular acceleration, justifying the validity of applying the dynamic mode decomposition method to geomagnetic field. We reveal that the geomagnetic field variations are characterized by a global mode with period of 58 years, a localized mode with period of 16 years and an equatorially trapped mode with period of 8.5 years. These modes are possibly related to magnetohydrodynamic waves in the Earth's outer core.

Abstract In 2019, the World Data Center for Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Moscow digitized the archive of observations of the Earth’s magnetic field carried out by the Soviet satellites Kosmos-49 (1964) and Kosmos-321 (1970). As a result, the scientific community for the first time obtained access to a unique digital data set, which was registered at the very beginning of the scientific space era. This article sets out three objectives. First, the quality of the obtained measurements is assessed by their comparison with the IGRF model. Second, we assess the quality of the models, which at that time were derived from the data of these two satellites. Third, we propose a new, improved model of the geomagnetic field secular variation based on the scalar measurements of the Kosmos-49 and Kosmos-321 satellites. Graphical Abstract

This study characterizes the paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) in five Holocene records from Eastern North America. We have determined equi-spaced (100-year) declination and inclination time series for the five sites and compared their directional variability. We note ten correlatable features in both inclination and declination, which indicate that these five PSV records all lie within the same PSV region. We focus on clockwise or counter-clockwise looping of paleomagnetic directions (termed circularity) in these PSV records. We have used two techniques to estimate the circularity. We have first calculated the rate and direction of motion in 200-year intervals for each record. We have also looked for discernable looping (full loops down to 1/2 loops) in individual records. We estimate the loop sizes, durations, and circularity direction. We note the same pattern of circularity in both methods. There are seven intervals of alternating circularity in all five sites. They normally agree in timing and direction of circularity. Both methods suggest an alternating, teeter-totter like, behavior to PSV circularity. This teeter-totter behavior is unbalanced with more time spent in counter-clockwise motion than in clockwise motion. The loops have a distribution of sizes and durations with smaller loops being shorter in duration (400–800 years) and bigger loops having longer durations (600–1,200 years). The teeter-totter alternation of clockwise versus counter-clockwise circularity is distinctive and may be a normal aspect of PSV. The alternation is not consistent with several traditional ideas about fluid flow (drift, whirling motion, simple convection) in the outer core. Recent studies have identified torsional oscillations as a source for both historical short-term (decadal) and millennial-scale (103) secular variation. Such a pattern of fluid flow might create the alternating teeter-totter-like behavior of circularity that we see. All five PSV records also display five short (

The Earth's magnetic field originated in the fluid core, the so-called core field, is the dominant contribution to the geomagnetic field. Since ancient times, the core geomagnetic field has been used primarily for geographical orientation and navigation by means of compasses. Nowadays, thanks to the large amount of geomagnetic data available, core field models can be developed on a global or regional scale. Global models resolve large-scale geomagnetic field features, while regional models can resolve greater detail over a particular region. The spherical harmonic cap analysis is a widely used technique for regional-scale modelling of the geomagnetic field. In this work we have developed a regional model of the core field and its secular variation between 2014.5 and 2020.5 over the Iberian Peninsula, based on data from Swarm satellites, geomagnetic observatories and repeat stations. Its performance has been validated by comparing the fit to the available geomagnetic data using the regional model and the global models IGRF and CHAOS over the whole spatio-temporal range studied. In order to optimise the model, a detailed study of its input parameters has been carried out, showing that not all parameters have an equal influence on the modelling. This new model reproduces the input data with a root mean square error of 2.9 nT, improving the outcome of global models on this region. The results of this work will allow the Spanish Instituto Geográfico Nacional to produce the magnetic cartography of Iberia and the Balearic Islands in 2020.0, which for the first time will be based on a regional core field model, replacing the polynomial variation method used in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: For many migratory species, inexperienced (naïve) individuals reach remote non-breeding areas independently using one or more inherited compass headings and, potentially, magnetic signposts to gauge where to switch between compass headings. Inherited magnetic-based migration has not yet been assessed as a population-level process, particularly across strong geomagnetic gradients or where long-term geomagnetic shifts (hereafter, secular variation) could create mismatches with magnetic headings. Therefore, it remains unclear whether inherited magnetic headings and signposts could potentially adapt to secular variation under natural selection. Methods: To address these unknowns, we modelled migratory orientation programs using an evolutionary algorithm incorporating global geomagnetic data (1900–2023). Modelled population mixing incorporated both natal dispersal and trans-generational inheritance of magnetic headings and signposts, including intrinsic (stochastic) variability in inheritance. Using the model, we assessed robustness of trans-hemispheric migration of a migratory songbird whose Nearctic breeding grounds have undergone rapid secular variation (mean 34° clockwise drift in declination, 1900–2023), and which travels across strong geomagnetic gradients via Europe to Africa. Results: Model-evolved magnetic-signposted migration was overall successful throughout the 124-year period, with 60–90% mean successful arrival across a broad range in plausible precision in compass headings and gauging signposts. Signposted migration reduced trans-Atlantic flight distances and was up to twice as successful compared with non-signposted migration. Magnetic headings shifted plastically in response to the secular variation (mean 16°–17° among orientation programs), whereas signpost latitudes were more constrained (3°–5° mean shifts). This plasticity required intrinsic variability in inheritance (model-evolved σ ≈ 2.6° standard error), preventing clockwise secular drift from causing unsustainable open-ocean flights. Conclusions: Our study supports the potential long-term viability of inherited magnetic migratory headings and signposts, and illustrates more generally how inherited migratory orientation programs can both mediate and constrain evolution of routes, in response to global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historical trend in the axial dipole is sufficient to reverse the field in less than 2 kyr. Assessing the prospect of an imminent polarity reversal depends on the probability of sustaining the historical trend for long enough to produce a reversal. We use a stochastic model to predict the variability of trends for arbitrary time windows. Our predictions agree well with the trends computed from paleomagnetic models. Applying these predictions to the historical record shows that the current trend is likely due to natural variability. Furthermore, an extrapolation of the current trend for the next 1 to 2 kyr is highly unlikely. Instead, we compute the trend and time window needed to reverse the field with a specified probability. We find that the dipole could reverse in the next 20 kyr with a probability of 2%.

Abstract We present the extension of the Kalmag model, proposed as a candidate for IGRF-13, to the twentieth century. The dataset serving its derivation has been complemented by new measurements coming from satellites, ground-based observatories and land, marine and airborne surveys. As its predecessor, this version is derived from a combination of a Kalman filter and a smoothing algorithm, providing mean models and associated uncertainties. These quantities permit a precise estimation of locations where mean solutions can be considered as reliable or not. The temporal resolution of the core field and the secular variation was set to 0.1 year over the 122 years the model is spanning. Nevertheless, it can be shown through ensembles a posteriori sampled, that this resolution can be effectively achieved only by a limited amount of spatial scales and during certain time periods. Unsurprisingly, highest accuracy in both space and time of the core field and the secular variation is achieved during the CHAMP and Swarm era. In this version of Kalmag, a particular effort was made for resolving the small-scale lithospheric field. Under specific statistical assumptions, the latter was modeled up to spherical harmonic degree and order 1000, and signal from both satellite and survey measurements contributed to its development. External and induced fields were jointly estimated with the rest of the model. We show that their large scales could be accurately extracted from direct measurements whenever the latter exhibit a sufficiently high temporal coverage. Temporally resolving these fields down to 3 hours during the CHAMP and Swarm missions, gave us access to the link between induced and magnetospheric fields. In particular, the period dependence of the driving signal on the induced one could be directly observed. The model is available through various physical and statistical quantities on a dedicated website at https://ionocovar.agnld.uni-potsdam.de/Kalmag/ . Graphical abstract

The agonic line, characterized by zero values of geomagnetic declination, has had a westward drift during the last centuries, crossing the location of the Real Observatorio de Madrid at the end of the year 2021. This fact, which was monitored by the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, moves us to study the evolution of the magnetic declination in this emblematic emplacement between the last two crosses of the agonic line. Our results point out that the current westward drift started around the year 1810 and, before this period, the agonic line moved from west to east, crossing the location of the Real Observatorio around 1650–1675.

In 2019, the World Data Center for Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Moscow digitized the archive of observations of the Earth's magnetic field carried out by the Soviet satellites Kosmos-49 (1964) and Kosmos-321 (1970). As a result, the scientific community for the first time obtained access to a unique digital data set, which was registered at the very beginning of the scientific space era. This article sets out three objectives. First, the quality of the obtained measurements is assessed by their comparison with the IGRF model. Second, we assess the quality of the models, which at that time were derived from the data of these two satellites. Third, we propose a new, improved model of the geomagnetic field secular variation based on the scalar measurements of the Kosmos-49 and Kosmos-321 satellites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Abstract A regional harmonic spline geomagnetic main field model, Southern Africa Core Field Model (SACFM-3), is derived from Swarm satellite and ground-based data for the southern African region, in the eastern part of the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) where the field intensity continues to decrease. Using SACFM-3 and the global CHAOS-6-×9 model, a detailed study was conducted to shed light on the high spatial and temporal geomagnetic field variations over Southern Africa between 2014 and 2019. The results show a steady decrease of the radial component Z in almost the entire region. In 2019, its rate of decrease in the western part of the region has reached high values, 76 nT/year and 78 nT/year at Tsumeb and Keetmanshoop magnetic observatories, respectively. For some areas in the western part of the region the radial component Z and field intensity F have decreased in strength, from 1.0 to 1.3% and from 0.9 to 1.2%, respectively, between the epochs 2014.5 and 2019.5. There is a noticeable decrease of the field intensity from the south-western coast of South Africa expanding towards the north and eastern regions. The results show that the SAA area is continuing to grow in the region. Abrupt changes in the linear secular variation in 2016 and 2017 are confirmed in the region using ground-based data, and the X component shows an abrupt change in the secular variation in 2018 at four magnetic observatories (Hermanus, Hartebeesthoek, Tsumeb and Keetmanshoop) that needs further investigation. The regional model SACFM-3 reflects to some extent these fast core field variations in the Z component at Hermanus, Hartebeesthoek and Keetmanshoop observatories. Graphical Abstract

High‐temperature melting in mantle plumes produces voluminous eruptions that are often temporally coincident with mass extinctions. Paleocene Baffin Island lavas—products of early Iceland mantle plume activity—are exceptionally well characterized geochemically but have poorly constrained stratigraphy, geochronology, and eruptive tempos. To provide better geologic context, we measured seven stratigraphic sections of the volcanic deposits and collected paleomagnetic data from 38 sites in the lavas and underlying Cretaceous sediments (Quqaluit Fm.). The average paleomagnetic pole from this study does not overlap with the expected pole for a stable North American locality at 60 Ma, yet the data have sufficient dispersion to average out secular variation. After ruling out other possibilities, we find that the picrites were probably erupted during a polarity transition, over less than 5 kyr. If so, the average eruption interval was ∼67 years per flow for the thickest sequence of exposed lavas. We also calculate that the flood basalts had a minimum total volume of ∼176 km3 (excluding submerged lavas in Baffin Bay). This implies a minimum eruption rate of ∼0.035 km3 yr−1, which is similar to rates found in West Greenland lavas but less than rates found in larger flood basalts. Despite this, the Baffin and West Greenland lavas temporally correlate with the "End C27n event" (a period of ∼2°C global warming) and may be its underlying cause. Plain Language Summary: Lavas erupted about 60 million years ago on Baffin Island, Canada, are well studied by geochemists because they are thought to derive from the Iceland mantle plume. However, the age and eruptive frequencies of the flows are not well known. We report geologic observations from seven packages of lava flows and present paleomagnetic data from 38 sites. We calculate that at least 0.035 km3 of lava was being produced every year during the volcanic episode. Based on the paleomagnetic data, all the flows erupted in less than five thousand years with an average of 67 years between eruptions. This is consistent with results from similar lavas in West Greenland, which likely erupted at the same time. For unknown reasons, the Baffin Island and West Greenland eruptions did not cause a mass extinction but may have caused a global warming event. Key Points: New stratigraphic and paleomagnetic data are presented from flood basalts on Baffin Island, CanadaThe exposed lavas erupted in less than 5,000 years, with an average eruption interval of 67 yearsMinimum long‐term eruption rates were less than rates found in larger flood basalt provinces [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract High‐temperature melting in mantle plumes produces voluminous eruptions that are often temporally coincident with mass extinctions. Paleocene Baffin Island lavas—products of early Iceland mantle plume activity—are exceptionally well characterized geochemically but have poorly constrained stratigraphy, geochronology, and eruptive tempos. To provide better geologic context, we measured seven stratigraphic sections of the volcanic deposits and collected paleomagnetic data from 38 sites in the lavas and underlying Cretaceous sediments (Quqaluit Fm.). The average paleomagnetic pole from this study does not overlap with the expected pole for a stable North American locality at 60 Ma, yet the data have sufficient dispersion to average out secular variation. After ruling out other possibilities, we find that the picrites were probably erupted during a polarity transition, over less than 5 kyr. If so, the average eruption interval was ∼67 years per flow for the thickest sequence of exposed lavas. We also calculate that the flood basalts had a minimum total volume of ∼176 km3 (excluding submerged lavas in Baffin Bay). This implies a minimum eruption rate of ∼0.035 km3 yr−1, which is similar to rates found in West Greenland lavas but less than rates found in larger flood basalts. Despite this, the Baffin and West Greenland lavas temporally correlate with the “End C27n event” (a period of ∼2°C global warming) and may be its underlying cause.

Highlights Observatory and Swarm data reveal a new geomagnetic jerk around 2019–2020. A very recent geomagnetic field model indicates the global character of the new jerk. A new pulse at the CMB around mid-2018 seems to be the starting point of this jerk.

The use of secular variation in Earth’s magnetic field for dating purposes in archeology and volcanology began with the first developments in paleomagnetism. This paper traces the key contributions of Paul-Louis Mercanton, Pierre David, Bernard Brunhes, and Raymond Chevallier in the early 20th century, between the seminal works of Giuseppe Folgheraiter in the 1890s and Emile Thellier in the 1930s, all of whom expressed a strong interest in these applications. These researchers raised issues that are still at the forefront of present-day research, though archeomagnetists are now able to address them with modern tools and much larger sets of data. Surprisingly, in 1901, a first and long plea for the use of archeomagnetism as a dating tool came not from a paleomagnetist but from the limnologist François-Alphonse Forel.

Unique information about the dynamo process acting at Jupiter can be inferred by modeling and interpreting its magnetic field. Using the fluxgate magnetometer measurements acquired during the 4 years of the Juno mission, we derive a magnetic field model which describes simultaneously the main field and the secular variation (SV) up to spherical harmonic degrees 16 and 8, respectively. Apart from the Earth's, this is the first time another planetary magnetic field along with its time variation is described to such a high degree. We use properties of the power spectrum of the static field to infer the upper boundary of the dynamo convective region at 0.830 ± 0.022 Jupiter radius. The SV and correlation times are relatively comparable to the Earth's and indicate that the field is dominated by advection. The field and SV morphologies suggest zonal as well as non‐zonal deep fluid motions. Plain Language Summary: The interior of Jupiter can be described broadly as a dense core surrounded by fluids, dominantly hydrogen and helium. The hydrogen‐rich metallic fluid generates the strongest planetary magnetic field in the Solar System. Modeling and interpreting this field gives essential information about the dynamo process inside Jupiter. We use the Juno mission data throughout 4 years (or, 28 orbits) to derive an internal magnetic field and secular variation (SV) model using spherical harmonic functions. We compute a magnetic field model to degree 16 for its static part, and model its temporal variation to degree 8. The power spectrum of the magnetic field model is used to investigate the radius of the dynamo region. We infer that the convective region has an upper boundary at 0.830 ± 0.022 Jupiter radius. The strength of the annual change of field is relatively comparable to the Earth's. The slope of the SV timescales indicates that the dynamo is dominated by advective effects. The SV displays a maximum near the equator with a bi‐polar structure in agreement with zonal drift of the Great Blue Spot. However, numerous small scale SV structures suggest that the flow at the interior is complex involving both zonal and non‐zonal features. Key Points: Magnetic field of Jupiter is modeled from Juno's first 4 years of observationsA degree 16 magnetic field model and degree 8 secular variation model are derivedThe model indicates a dynamo not far from the surface and complex motions deep inside Jupiter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We use 20 years of continuous magnetic field measurements from the Ørsted, CHAMP and Swarm satellite missions, supplemented by calibrated platform magnetometer data from the CryoSat-2 satellite, to study time variations of the Earth’s core field at satellite altitude and at the core–mantle boundary (CMB). From the satellite data we derive composite time series of the core field secular variation (SV) with 4-month cadence, at 300 globally distributed Geomagnetic Virtual Observatories (GVO). A previous gap in the GVO series between 2010 and 2014 is successfully filled using CryoSat-2, and sub-decadal variations are identified during this period. Tests showed that similar sub-decadal SV patterns were obtained from the CryoSat-2 data regardless of whether IGRF-13 or CHAOS-6x9 was used in their calibration. Cryosat-2 radial field SV series at non-polar latitudes have a mean standard deviation level compared to smoothing spline fits of 3.5 nT/yr compared to 1.8 nT/yr for CHAMP and 0.9 nT/yr for Swarm. GVO radial SV series display regional fluctuations with 5–10 years duration and amplitudes reaching 20 nT/yr, most notably at low latitudes over Indonesia (2014), over South America and the South Atlantic (2007, 2011 and 2014), and over the central Pacific (2017). Applying the Subtractive Optimally Localized Averages (SOLA) method, we also map the radial SV at the CMB as a collection of locally averaged SV estimates. We demonstrate that using 2-year windows of CryoSat-2 data, it is possible to reliably estimate the SV and its time derivative, the secular acceleration (SA), at the CMB, with a spatial resolution, corresponding to spherical harmonic degree 10. Along the CMB geographic equator, we find strong SA features with amplitude $$\pm 2.5\mu \mathrm{T}/\mathrm{yr}^2$$ ± 2.5 μ T / yr 2 under Indonesia from 2011–2014, under central America from 2015 to 2019, and sequences of SA with alternating sign under the Atlantic during 2004–2019. We find that platform magnetometer data from CryoSat-2 make a valuable contribution to the emerging picture of sub-decadal core field variations. Using 1-year windows of data from the Swarm satellites, we show that it is possible to study SA changes at low latitudes on timescales down to 1 year, with spatial resolution corresponding to spherical harmonic degree 10. We find strong positive and negative SA features appearing side-by-side in the Pacific in 2017, and thereafter drift westward.

Abstract The three candidate models submitted by the British Geological Survey for the 13th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field are described. These DGRF and IGRF models are derived from vector and scalar magnetic field data from the European Space Agency Swarm satellites and ground observatories, covering the period 2013.9 to 2019.7. The internal field model has time dependence for degrees 1 to 15, represented by order 6 B-splines with knots at six monthly intervals. We also solve for a degree 1 external field time dependence describing annual and semi-annual signals with additional dependence on a bespoke Vector Magnetic Disturbance index. Satellite data are weighted by spatial density, along-track standard deviations, and a larger-scale noise estimator defined in terms of a measure of Local Area Vector Activity at the geographically closest magnetic observatories to the sampled datum. Forecasting of the magnetic field secular variation for 2020–2025 is by advection of the main field using steady core surface flows with steady acceleration applied. We also investigate the performance of the previous generation of candidate secular variation models, for IGRF-12, analysing the agreement of the candidates between 2015 and 2020 with the retrospective IGRF-13. We find that there is no clear distinction between the performance of mathematically and physically extrapolated forecasts in the period 2015–2020. We confirm that the methodology for the BGS IGRF-12 predictions performed well, despite observed secular accelerations that are highlighted by our analysis, and thus justify the methodology used for our IGRF-13 SV candidate.

Abstract The South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a region at Earth’s surface where the intensity of the magnetic field is particularly low. Accurate characterization of the SAA is important for both fundamental understanding of core dynamics and the geodynamo as well as societal issues such as the erosion of instruments at surface observatories and onboard spacecrafts. Here, we propose new measures to better characterize the SAA area and center, accounting for surface intensity changes outside the SAA region and shape anisotropy. Applying our characterization to a geomagnetic field model covering the historical era, we find that the SAA area and center are more time dependent, including episodes of steady area, eastward drift and rapid southward drift. We interpret these special events in terms of the secular variation of relevant large-scale geomagnetic flux patches on the core–mantle boundary. Our characterization may be used as a constraint on Earth-like numerical dynamo models.

Abstract We present geomagnetic main field and secular variation time series, at 300 equal-area distributed locations and at 490 km altitude, derived from magnetic field measurements collected by the three Swarm satellites. These Geomagnetic Virtual Observatory (GVO) series provide a convenient means to globally monitor and analyze long-term variations of the geomagnetic field from low-Earth orbit. The series are obtained by robust fits of local Cartesian potential field models to along-track and East–West sums and differences of Swarm satellite data collected within a radius of 700 km of the GVO locations during either 1-monthly or 4-monthly time windows. We describe two GVO data products: (1) ‘Observed Field’ GVO time series, where all observed sources contribute to the estimated values, without any data selection or correction, and (2) ‘Core Field’ GVO time series, where additional data selection is carried out, then de-noising schemes and epoch-by-epoch spherical harmonic analysis are applied to reduce contamination by magnetospheric and ionospheric signals. Secular variation series are provided as annual differences of the Core Field GVOs. We present examples of the resulting Swarm GVO series, assessing their quality through comparisons with ground observatories and geomagnetic field models. In benchmark comparisons with six high-quality mid-to-low latitude ground observatories we find the secular variation of the Core Field GVO field intensities, calculated using annual differences, agrees to an rms of 1.8 nT/yr and 1.2 nT/yr for the 1-monthly and 4-monthly versions, respectively. Regular sampling in space and time, and the availability of data error estimates, makes the GVO series well suited for users wishing to perform data assimilation studies of core dynamics, or to study long-period magnetospheric and ionospheric signals and their induced counterparts. The Swarm GVO time series will be regularly updated, approximately every four months, allowing ready access to the latest secular variation data from the Swarm satellites.

Abstract Models of the geomagnetic field rely on magnetic data of high spatial and temporal resolution to give an accurate picture of the Earth’s internal magnetic field and its time-dependence. The magnetic data from low-Earth orbit satellites of dedicated magnetic survey missions such as CHAMP and Swarm play a key role in the construction of such models. Unfortunately, there are no magnetic data available from such satellites after the end of the CHAMP mission in 2010 and before the launch of the Swarm mission in late 2013. This limits our ability to recover signals on timescales of 3 years and less during this gap period. The magnetic data from platform magnetometers carried by satellites for navigational purposes may help address this data gap provided that they are carefully calibrated. Earlier studies have demonstrated that platform magnetometer data can be calibrated using a fixed geomagnetic field model as reference. However, this approach can lead to biased calibration parameters. An alternative approach has been developed in the form of a co-estimation scheme which consists of simultaneously estimating both the calibration parameters and a model of the internal part of the geomagnetic field. Here, we go further and develop a scheme, based on the CHAOS field modeling framework, that involves co-estimation of both internal and external geomagnetic field models along with calibration parameters of platform magnetometer data. Using our implementation, we are able to derive a geomagnetic field model spanning 2008 to 2018 with satellite magnetic data from CHAMP, Swarm, secular variation data from ground observatories, and platform magnetometer data from CryoSat-2 and the GRACE satellite pair. Through a number of experiments, we explore correlations between the estimates of the geomagnetic field and the calibration parameters, and suggest how these may be avoided. We find evidence that platform magnetometer data provide additional information on the secular acceleration, especially in the Pacific during the gap between CHAMP and Swarm. This study adds to the evidence that it is beneficial to use platform magnetometer data in geomagnetic field modeling.

Anguillid eels grow in freshwater but spawn in the open ocean. The cues that guide eels over long distances to the spawning area are unknown. The Earth's magnetic field can provide directional and positional information and is likely used by catadromous eels during their spawning migration; as magnetosensitivity and compass orientation have been reported in eels. To test whether this is theoretically possible, we compared the migratory routes of five species of temperate eels that undertake long migrations with the geomagnetic field of their distribution/spawning areas. We found that, regardless of the species and although routes are different between life stages, larvae of those species always drift along paths of increasing magnetic inclination and intensity, while adults follow reverse gradients. This is consistent with an imprinting/retracing hypothesis. We propose a general navigation mechanism based on larvae imprinting on a target magnetic intensity (or inclination) at the hatching area and on the intensity (or inclination) gradient during larval drift. Years later, adults retrace the magnetic route by following the gradient of decreasing total intensity (or inclination) values that occurs towards lower latitudes. As they reach the target value, adults switch to compass orientation to stay on the target isoline and reach the spawning area. The proposed mechanism fits for all temperate eels examined. Knowledge about navigational strategies of eels is important to evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies that involve stocking of juveniles displaced from one area to another to rebuild local populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract We present the CHAOS-7 model of the time-dependent near-Earth geomagnetic field between 1999 and 2020 based on magnetic field observations collected by the low-Earth orbit satellites Swarm, CryoSat-2, CHAMP, SAC-C and Ørsted, and on annual differences of monthly means of ground observatory measurements. The CHAOS-7 model consists of a time-dependent internal field up to spherical harmonic degree 20, a static internal field which merges to the LCS-1 lithospheric field model above degree 25, a model of the magnetospheric field and its induced counterpart, estimates of Euler angles describing the alignment of satellite vector magnetometers, and magnetometer calibration parameters for CryoSat-2. Only data from dark regions satisfying strict geomagnetic quiet-time criteria (including conditions on IMF $$B_z$$ B z and $$B_y$$ B y at all latitudes) were used in the field estimation. Model parameters were estimated using an iteratively reweighted regularized least-squares procedure; regularization of the time-dependent internal field was relaxed at high spherical harmonic degree compared with previous versions of the CHAOS model. We use CHAOS-7 to investigate recent changes in the geomagnetic field, studying the evolution of the South Atlantic weak field anomaly and rapid field changes in the Pacific region since 2014. At Earth’s surface a secondary minimum of the South Atlantic Anomaly is now evident to the south west of Africa. Green’s functions relating the core–mantle boundary radial field to the surface intensity show this feature is connected with the movement and evolution of a reversed flux feature under South Africa. The continuing growth in size and weakening of the main anomaly is linked to the westward motion and gathering of reversed flux under South America. In the Pacific region at Earth’s surface between 2015 and 2018 a sign change has occurred in the second time derivative (acceleration) of the radial component of the field. This acceleration change took the form of a localized, east–west oriented, dipole. It was clearly recorded on ground, for example at the magnetic observatory at Honolulu, and was seen in Swarm observations over an extended region in the central and western Pacific. Downward continuing to the core–mantle boundary, we find this event originated in field acceleration changes at low latitudes beneath the central and western Pacific in 2017.

Abstract We describe a new, original approach to the modelling of the Earth’s magnetic field. The overall objective of this study is to reliably render fast variations of the core field and its secular variation. This method combines a sequential modelling approach, a Kalman filter, and a correlation-based modelling step. Sources that most significantly contribute to the field measured at the surface of the Earth are modelled. Their separation is based on strong prior information on their spatial and temporal behaviours. We obtain a time series of model distributions which display behaviours similar to those of recent models based on more classic approaches, particularly at large temporal and spatial scales. Interesting new features and periodicities are visible in our models at smaller time and spatial scales. An important aspect of our method is to yield reliable error bars for all model parameters. These errors, however, are only as reliable as the description of the different sources and the prior information used are realistic. Finally, we used a slightly different version of our method to produce candidate models for the thirteenth edition of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field.

Abstract As posted by the Working Group V of the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA), the 13th generation of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) has been released at the end of 2019. Following IAGA recommendations, in this work we present a candidate model for the IGRF-13, for which we have used the available Swarm satellite and geomagnetic observatory ground data for the last year. In order to provide the IGRF-13 candidate, we have extrapolated the Gauss coefficients of the main field and its secular variation to January 1st, 2020. In addition, we have generated a Definitive Geomagnetic Reference Field model for 2015.0 using the same modelling approach, but focussed on a 1-year time window of data centred on 2015.0. To jointly model both satellite and ground data, we have followed the classical protocols and data filters applied in geomagnetic field modelling. Novelty arrives from the application of bootstrap analysis to solve issues related to the inhomogeneity of the spatial and temporal data distributions. This new approach allows the estimation of not only the Gauss coefficients, but also their uncertainties.

Abstract We present a new model of the geomagnetic field spanning the last 20 years and called Kalmag. Deriving from the assimilation of CHAMP and Swarm vector field measurements, it separates the different contributions to the observable field through parameterized prior covariance matrices. To make the inverse problem numerically feasible, it has been sequentialized in time through the combination of a Kalman filter and a smoothing algorithm. The model provides reliable estimates of past, present and future mean fields and associated uncertainties. The version presented here is an update of our IGRF candidates; the amount of assimilated data has been doubled and the considered time window has been extended from [2000.5, 2019.74] to [2000.5, 2020.33].

Abstract Earth’s internal magnetic field is generated through motion of the electrically conductive iron-alloy fluid comprising its outer core. Temporal variability of this magnetic field, termed secular variation (SV), results from two processes: one is the interaction between core fluid motion and the magnetic field, the other is magnetic diffusion. As diffusion is widely thought to take place over relatively long, millennial time scales, it is common to disregard it when considering yearly to decadal field changes; in this frozen-flux approximation, core fluid motion may be inferred on the core–mantle boundary (CMB) using observations of SV at Earth’s surface. Such flow models have been used to forecast variation in the magnetic field. However, recent work suggests that diffusion may also contribute significantly to SV on short time scales provided that the radial length scale of the magnetic field structure within the core is sufficiently short. In this work, we introduce a hybrid method to forecast field evolution that considers a model based on both a steady flow and diffusion, in which we adopt a two-step process: first fitting the SV to a steady flow, and then fitting the residual by magnetic diffusion. We assess this approach by hindcasting the evolution for 2010–2015, based on fitting the models to CHAOS-6 using time windows prior to 2010. We find that including diffusion yields a reduction of up to 25% in the global hindcast error at Earth’s surface; at the CMB this error reduction can be in excess of 77%. We show that fitting the model over the shortest window that we consider, 2009–2010, yields the lowest hindcast error. Based on our hindcast tests, we present a candidate model for the SV over 2020–2025 for IGRF-13, fit over the time window 2018.3–2019.3. Our forecasts indicate that over the next decade the axial dipole will continue to decay, reversed-flux patches will increase in both area and intensity, and the north magnetic (dip) pole will continue to migrate towards Siberia.

Abstract We present the geomagnetic field model COV-OBS.x2 that covers the period 1840–2020. It is primarily constrained by observatory series, satellite data, plus older surveys. Over the past two decades, we consider annual differences of 4-monthly means at ground-based stations (since 1996), and virtual observatory series derived from magnetic data of the satellite missions CHAMP (over 2001–2010) and Swarm (since 2013). A priori information is needed to complement the constraints carried by geomagnetic records and solve the ill-posed geomagnetic inverse problem. We use for this purpose temporal cross-covariances associated with auto-regressive stochastic processes of order 2, whose parameters are chosen so as to mimic the temporal power spectral density observed in paleomagnetic and observatory series. We aim this way to obtain as far as possible realistic posterior model uncertainties. These can be used to infer for instance the core dynamics through data assimilation algorithms, or an envelope for short-term magnetic field forecasts. We show that because of the projection onto splines, one needs to inflate the formal model error variances at the most recent epochs, in order to account for unmodeled high frequency core field changes. As a by-product of the core field model, we co-estimate the external magnetospheric dipole evolution on periods longer than 2 years. It is efficiently summarized as the sum of a damped oscillator (of period 10.5 years and decay rate 55 years), plus a short-memory (6 years) damped random walk.

Abstract We have submitted a secular variation (SV) candidate model for the thirteenth generation of International Geomagnetic Reference Field model (IGRF-13) using a data assimilation scheme and a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) dynamo simulation code. This is the first contribution to the IGRF community from research groups in Japan. A geomagnetic field model derived from magnetic observatory hourly means, and CHAMP and Swarm-A satellite data, has been used as input data to the assimilation scheme. We adopt an ensemble-based assimilation scheme, called four-dimensional ensemble-based variational method (4DEnVar), which linearizes outputs of MHD dynamo simulation with respect to the deviation from a dynamo state vector at an initial condition. The data vector for the assimilation consists of the poloidal scalar potential of the geomagnetic field at the core surface and flow velocity field slightly below the core surface. Dimensionless time of numerical geodynamo is adjusted to the actual time by comparison of secular variation time scales. For SV prediction, we first generate an ensemble of dynamo simulation results from a free dynamo run. We then assimilate the ensemble to the data with a 10-year assimilation window through iterations, and finally forecast future SV by the weighted sum of the future extension parts of the ensemble members. Hindcast of the method for the assimilation window from 2004.50 to 2014.25 confirms that the linear approximation holds for 10-year assimilation window with our iterative ensemble renewal method. We demonstrate that the forecast performance of our data assimilation and forecast scheme is comparable with that of IGRF-12 by comparing data misfits 4.5 years after the release epoch. For estimation of our IGRF-13SV candidate model, we set assimilation window from 2009.50 to 2019.50. We generate our final SV candidate model by linear fitting for the weighted sum of the ensemble MHD dynamo simulation members from 2019.50 to 2025.00. We derive errors of our SV candidate model by one standard deviation of SV histograms based on all the ensemble members.

Определены особенности изменения геомагнитного поля в Антарктике в XX столетии по данным расчетов по модели IGRF (International Geomagnetic Reference Field) и наблюдений на обсерваториях. Получено, что в Южном полушарии полный вектор геомагнитного поля F уменьшается быстрее, чем в Северном. Амплитуда и скорость изменений возрастают к низким широтам в Северном полушарии и к высоким в Южном. В Южном полушарии в структуре векового хода выделяются три периода изменений, аналогичные таким в Северном. Западная и Восточная Антарктика имеют различную динамику изменения геомагнитного поля. Его напряженность растет на востоке и уменьшается на западе. Наиболее интенсивное уменьшение напряженности геомагнитного поля фиксируется по данным обсерватории AIA, которая находится в отрицательном фокусе векового хода в Западной Антарктике.