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Energy and water are inextricably linked. The shrinking water availabilities, increasing energy demand, and severe resources shortage pose great challenges for socioeconomic sustainable development. In this study, an interval-fuzzy chance-constrained programming method that is capable of addressing uncertainties expressed as interval values, fuzzy sets and fuzzy-probability distributions existed in the energy-water nexus system is developed. Then, the developed method is applied to a real case of Hebei province (in northern China) that heavily relies on fossil fuels such as coal and oil as sources of energy. A variety of scenarios associated with different water availabilities and multiple uncertainties are examined. Results reveal that both water availabilities and uncertainties have significant effects on the energy-water nexus system planning strategies. Compared to the scenario with high water-availability, the energy-water nexus system would save 10.9% of water under low water availability; however, the imported electricity would increase 8.2% to offset the local power-generation shortage. Results also disclose that the study system would gradually transit to renewable energies and the proportion of coal-fired power would reduce by 12.09% at the end of planning horizon. These findings can provide useful information for the other regions to achieve adjustment of the conflict among economic objective, electricity demand, and water shortage.

As the leading contributor of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, electric-power systems (EPS) are facing tremendous pressure to curb their emissions. However, a variety of complexities and uncertainties exist in CO2-emission processes and some impact factors (e.g., mitigation measure, system parameters). In this study, a robust interval-fuzzy programming (RIFP) method is developed for supporting low-carbon transition of EPS that is associated with various uncertainties and risks. Then, a RIFP-based clean development mechanism (RIFP-CDM) model is formulated for planning EPS of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (Bazhou), in which two cases are designed to analyze the impacts of CDM on the local energy produce. Results indicate that CDM can create an opportunity for large-scale renewable energy project because Bazhou has abundant hydro and wind resources; compared with the basic case, renewable energy CDM project has advantages in realizing CO2-emission reduction as well as adjusting the local energy mix. Besides, uncertainty analysis can help decision makers to gain insight to tradeoffs among risk-control level, satisfaction level, economic penalty, and system cost. The findings can help Bazhou exploring the transition pathways of sustainable development through CDM and offer useful information for policy investigation under multiple uncertainties.

A bi-level fuzzy programming (BFLP) method was developed for energy systems planning (ESP) and carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation under uncertainty. BFLP could handle fuzzy information and leader-follower problem in decision-making processes. It could also address the tradeoffs among different decision makers in two decision-making levels through prioritizing the most important goal. Then, a BFLP-ESP model was formulated for planning energy system of Beijing, in which the upper-level objective is to minimize CO2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. Results provided a range of decision alternatives that corresponded to a tradeoff between system optimality and reliability under uncertainty. Compared to the single-level model with a target to minimize system cost, the amounts of pollutant/CO2 emissions from BFLP-ESP were reduced since the study system would prefer more clean energies (i.e. natural gas, LPG and electricity) to replace coal fuel. Decision alternatives from BFLP were more beneficial for supporting Beijing to adjust its energy mix and enact its emission-abatement policy. Results also revealed that the low-carbon policy for power plants (e.g., shutting down all coal-fired power plants) could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing, which would increase the risk of energy shortage. The findings could help decision makers analyze the interactions between different stakeholders in ESP and provide useful information for policy design under uncertainty.

One of the problems facing researchers in managing carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is that complex energy systems accommodate the relevant social, economic, environmental, and political factors. Many system behaviors, factors, and parameters are associated with uncertainties. Effective management of such a complex system involves balancing tradeoffs among these key influencing factors under multiple uncertainties. In this study, an interval-fuzzy stochastic programming (IFSP) method is developed to deal with multiple uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets, intervals and probability distributions. An IFSP-CCS model is formulated to plan CCS technology of power system in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (Bazhou). Policy scenarios are introduced to investigate the potential role of CCS technology and sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the influence of various economic factors on system cost. Results indicate various uncertainties existed in CCS development and the related factors can affect the modeling outputs. Results also reveal that CO2-mitigation constraint can induce the development of renewable energy and CCS, and CCS technology can make a great contribution to CO2 emission reductions from a long-term planning perspective. The findings can provide support for CCS investment in fossil-fuel-dominated electric-power system and offer useful information for policy investigation under multiple uncertainties.

In this study, a two-stage type-2 fuzzy stochastic programming (TTSP) method is developed for supporting clean production of energy systems with carbon and pollutant mitigation under uncertainty. TTSP can handle multiple uncertainties expressed as type-2 fuzzy sets, random variables and interval values; it can also provide an effective linkage between the pre-regulated energy and environmental policies as well as the associated economic implication. The TTSP method is then applied to planning energy system of Shanghai through introducing carbon emission trading (CET) and green certificate (GC) schemes. The solutions obtained can help generate energy-supply and electricity-generation schemes under different carbon trading ratios and various development plans of renewable energy. Results reveal that (i) the city’s future energy structure would transit to the clean-production pattern on the basis of CET and GC policies; (ii) replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources (i.e. wind and photovoltaic power) can effectively facilitate reducing the emissions of pollutants (e.g., SO2, NOx and PM) and greenhouse gas (e.g., CO2). The results can help decision makers adjust energy and electricity supply, make appropriate mitigation plan, as well as gain insight into the relationship between mitigation schemes and optimal clean-production pattern.

In this study, an interval two-stage robust optimization method (ITRM) is developed for planning carbon-emission trading between ecosystem and industrial systems under uncertainty. The developed ITRM incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) within a robust optimization (RO) framework to deal with uncertainties presented as both probabilities and intervals and to reflect economic penalties as corrective measures or recourse against any infeasibilities arising due to a particular realization of an uncertain event. Compared with the traditional TSP, ITRM can effectively reflect the risk generated by stochastic programming process and enhance the robustness of the model, such that it is suitable for risk-aversive planners under high-variability conditions. The ITRM is applied to a case of carbon sink trading of Zhangjiakou and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission planning under uncertainty. The results obtained reveal that carbon trading mechanism can greatly optimize the allocation of resources and reduce the cost of emission abatement. The results also reveal that the contribution of forest ecosystems to carbon sinks and ecosystem services than others. Moreover, the system benefit would decrease as the robustness level is raised. Results indicate that when the robustness level is relatively low, the decision makers would pay more attention to the economic benefit of the system and neglect the stability of the system.

In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.

Full penetration welding and 100% volumetric examination are required for all welds of pressure retaining parts of the ITER Vacuum Vessel (VV) according to RCC-MR Code and French Order of Nuclear Pressure Equipment (ESPN). The NDE requirement is one of important technical issues because radiographic examination (RT) is not applicable to many welding joints. Therefore the ultrasonic examination (UT) has been selected as an alternative method. Generally the UT on the austenitic welds is regarded as a great challenge due to the high attenuation and dispersion of the ultrasonic signal. In this paper, Phased array ultrasonic examination (PAUT) has been introduced on double sided T-shape austenitic welds of the ITER VV as a major NDE method as well as RT. Several dozens of qualification blocks with artificial defects, which are parallel side drilled hole, embedded lack of fusion, embedded repair weld notch, embedded parallel vertical notch, and so on, have been designed and fabricated to simulate all potential defects during welding process. PAUT techniques on the thick austenitic welds have been developed taking into account the acceptance criteria. Test procedure including calibration of equipment is derived and qualified through official demonstrations using qualification blocks under the supervision of ITER organization and an agreed notified body (ANB). The developed PAUT techniques show excellent detectability and applicability for ITER VV.

Inherent uncertainties in regional ecosystems can affect the modeling processes and the relevant results for managing and planning the real-world problems. In this study, an interval stochastic credibility-constrained programming (ISCP) method is developed for tacking multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. The ISCP method is applied to planning regional ecosystem sustainability in the City of Dongying (China), in which ecosystem services valuation approach is directly incorporated within the optimization processes. Results associated with credibility levels of resources availability and the effects of sensitive ecological factors on the ecosystem services and ecological benefit are analyzed. Results show that a tighter limitation of ecological resources availability could cause lower economic development, particularly for oil field and oil refinery industries. Tradeoffs among social, economic and natural subsystems are also examined under different credibility levels, which are provided for generating optimal strategies in supporting of balancing the city’s economic and ecological sustainable development. Results of sensitivity analysis reveal that runoff coefficient is one of the most sensitive ecological factors in the process of calculating the ecological benefit. The findings can provide scientific bases for the integration of economic and ecological activities as well as the development of regional ecosystem-sustainability strategies.

Manufacturing design of Korean sectors and ports for the ITER Vacuum Vessel (VV) has been developed to comply with the tight tolerance and severe inspection requirements. The first VV sector and lower ports are being fabricated slowly under strict regulations after verification using several real scale mock-ups and qualifications for welding, forming and NDE. During three years after start of fabrication, manufacturing progress on four poloidal segments of the first sector is that (1) all inner shells were welded, (2) forgings for complicate components have been machined, (3) port stubs and poloidal T-ribs were assembled, and (4) machined components are welded on the inner shells by narrow-gap TIG welding and electron beam welding. The progress of lower ports is that (1) inner shells of stub extensions were bent and treated with heat, (2) T-ribs were fabricated and examined by qualified phased array UT, (3) supporting pads and gussets have been machined, and (4) inner shells are assembled with T-ribs and machined forgings. The progress rate of manufacturing is around 40% up to the end of 2015 for the first sector and lower port stub extensions.

Summary In this study, an interactive fuzzy chance-constrained resolution (IFCR) method is developed for supporting energy systems planning (ESP) under uncertainty. IFCR can not only tackle multiple uncertainties presented as fuzzy membership functions and probability distributions using an interactive resolution method, but also enable decision makers to seek optimal solutions between satisfaction degree of objective and feasibility of constraints. Then, an IFCR-ESP model is formulated for energy systems of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (abbreviated as Bazhou). Results provide decision makers with a complete view of the relationship between uncertain inputs and solutions. Policy-based solutions concerning energy consumption, electricity generation, capacity expansion, pollutant emission, and system cost are analyzed, which can help decision makers to identify desired strategies for ESP. Results indicate that transitioning from the conventional energy system to a sustainable one is associated to policy support, resources availability, energy supply security, and capital investment; clean energy policy (e.g. shift from coal to gas) is an effective way to facilitate the local energy system development in a sustainable manner; the solutions under different feasibility degrees can help decision makers to conduct in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between system cost and constraint-violation risk in an interactive way. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In this study, inexact mixed-integer linear programming with interval-valued membership function (IMILP-IMF) is developed for power-generation capacity planning. IMILP-IMF can deal with uncertainties described as fuzzy sets with interval-valued membership function, and allows uncertainties to be directly communicated into the optimization process and the resulting solution. IMILP-IMF is applied to a case study of supporting long-term planning for an electric power system (EPS). It can facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of capacity expansion planning within a multi-facility, multi-option and multi-period context. Solutions of energy resources allocation, capacity expansion, air pollution control, and electricity generation with a minimized system cost are obtained. Results reveal that, from a long-term planning point of view, more capacities of renewable energy generation need to be installed to replace the outdated facilities to transfer the EPS to a clean, sustainable and reliable one. Results of power-generation capacity planning in association with economic consideration and environmental requirement can also help decision makers to formulate the relevant policies, optimize energy supply structure, as well as facilitate the sustainable development of electric power systems. The findings will help generate decision alternatives under multiple scenarios, and thus offer insight into the tradeoffs between economic and environmental objectives.

The management of water resources system and energy system belongs to different decision-making departments, and there is a certain hierarchical relationship between them. Optimizing the configuration of regional-scale water and energy systems from a global perspective, and considering the correlations between water resources shortage risk and energy shortage risk as well as their joint-risk interaction, can improve the accuracy and efficiency of management decisions. This study aims to propose a copula-based interval two-level programming (CITP) method by integrating a copula-based interval stochastic programming (CISP) method and two-level programming (TP) method. CITP cannot only balance the goals and preferences among different decision-making levels but also analyze the risk interactions between water resources availability and electricity demand. The CITP method is then applied to planning the energy-water nexus system (EWNS) of Henan Province (China), where various decision-making levels and diverse risk-interaction scenarios are analyzed. Results reveal that: during the planning horizon, a) the total electricity-generation amounts can change by 7.31 × 103 GWh from S1 to S5; b) the future electricity-supply structure will toward a more sustainable aspect, and the electricity generated from gas-fired, hydro and wind power can increase by 6.2 × 103 GWh, 3.7 × 103 GWh and 5.8 × 103 GWh, respectively. Results can provide decision supports for the coordinated development of regional-scale EWNS management among water, energy, economy and society as well as environment.

Energy, water, and the environment are intricately connected, and these relationships necessitate their simultaneous management to achieve sustainable development. In this study, a stochastic multidivisional hierarchy model (SMHM) is developed for use in planning an energy-water-environment nexus system (EWES). The SMHM is not only capable of addressing uncertainties expressed as interval and stochastic parameters within multidivisional and multi-level contexts, but also those accounting for the synergy and trade-off relationships between different stakeholders. Decisions are made through the SMHM in two stages: top management given the first choice followed by the concurrent responses of the divisions. SMHM is applied to a real-world case study of EWES in Shanxi, China. Results reveal that energy-intensive industry (i.e., electricity generation) consumes more water and emits more pollutants than others. In addition, uncertainties have significant effects on the planning strategies of EWES; compared with a high-risk scenario of electricity insufficiency, a low-risk scenario would consume additional amounts of [3.3, 5.7] × 109 tce energy and [1.8, 2.6] × 106 m3 water. Compared with single-level models, the SMHM schemes enable both resource savings and environmental sustainability. These findings could assist stakeholders in resolving conflicts and provide useful information for the integrated management of regional energy, water, and the environment.

Manufacturing design has been developed by Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (HHI) and Korea Domestic Agency (KODA) to manufacture real product. As the first step of development of the manufacturing design, fabrication feasibility study was carried out in accordance with the RCC-MR 2007. Fabrication sequence was drafted and engineering analyses have been performed to guarantee structural integrity of manufacturing design and to minimize welding distortion. Several design modification proposals were derived during fabrication feasibility study. Fabrication sequence and manufacturing techniques have been established based on the results of a fabrication feasibility study. 3D multi-part model was developed based on the reference multi-body model and manufacturing drawings have been produced. A full scale mock-up of the lower port stub extension (PSE) has been fabricated in order to verify weldability, applicability of non-destructive examination (NDE) and welding distortion. Several qualifications were also conducted to confirm that the manufacturing design satisfies the requirements for bending, solution heat treatment, welding and NDE. Manufacturing and inspection plans (MIP) have been prepared to start real fabrication. In this paper, manufacturing design procedure and major technical results of manufacturing design development are presented for ITER VV lower port.

In this study, a superiority–inferiority full-infinite mixed-integer programming (SFMP) method is developed for analyzing the effect of energy conversion efficiency under uncertainty. SFMP can effectively tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets, crisp intervals and functional intervals, it also can directly reflect relationships among multiple fuzzy sets through varying superiority and inferiority degrees with a high computational efficiency. Then the developed SFMP is applied to a real case of planning energy system for Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, where multiple scenarios related to different energy-conversion efficiency are concerned. Results for energy processing, energy conversion, capacity expansion, pollutant emission and system cost have been generated. It is proved that SFMP is an effective approach to deal with the uncertainties in energy systems with interactive and uncertain characteristics. A variety of uncertainties existed in energy conversion processes and impact factors could affect the modeling result. Results show that improvement of energy-conversion efficiency can effectively facilitate reducing energy resources consumption, optimizing energy generation pattern, decreasing capacity expansion, as well as mitigating pollutant emissions. Results also reveal that, for the study area, electric power has a highest energy saving potential among heating, oil processing, coal washing and refining. Results can help decision makers to generate desired alternatives that can facilitate policy enactment of conversion efficiency improvement and adjustment of regional energy structure under uncertainty.

In this study, a superiority-inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits.

To improve the plasma vertical stabilization during tokamak operation, partial pure copper layer could be considered on the inner shell of vacuum vessel which is large complex component made of stainless steel. The copper cladding has been a great challenge due to the complicated configuration and difficulty of dissimilar metal joining. From an engineering point of view, there are several candidates for the copper cladding such as cold spray, overlay welding and explosive welding. In this paper, fabrication feasibility study for copper cladding has been carried out by using cold spray method, and a set of full scale mock-up of in-vessel component has been conducted to demonstrate applicability of copper cold spray and to verify copper layer. The results of copper cold spray on test specimens and mock-up showed good properties and no defects on the thick copper layer. Optimum conditions of copper cold spray have been developed based on these results. Accordingly, it can be concluded that cold spray is a feasible and practical method to achieve thick copper cladding on tokamak component.

In this study, an interval chance-constrained bi-level programming (ICBP) method is developed for air quality management of municipal energy system under uncertainty. ICBP can deal with uncertainties presented as interval values and probability distributions as well as examine the risk of violating constraints. Besides, a leader-follower decision strategy is incorporated into the optimization process where two decision makers with different goals and preferences are involved. To solve the proposed model, a bi-level interactive algorithm based on satisfactory degree is introduced into the decision-making processes. Then, an ICBP based energy and environmental systems (ICBP-EES) model is formulated for Beijing, in which air quality index (AQI) is used for evaluating the integrated air quality of multiple pollutants. Result analysis can help different stakeholders adjust their tolerances to achieve the overall satisfaction of EES planning for the study city. Results reveal that natural gas is the main source for electricity-generation and heating that could lead to a potentially increment of imported energy for Beijing in future. Results also disclose that PM10 is the major contributor to AQI. These findings can help decision makers to identify desired alternatives for EES planning and provide useful information for regional air quality management under uncertainty.

Pure phase VO2(A) nanorods have been synthesized by hydrothermal in V2O5 H2C2O4 H2O system. One group samples were prepared by varying the system temperature under a certain filling ratio (f = 0.40) and reaction time for observing the formation and evolution of VO2(A) and VO2(B) phase. The composition and morphology of the nanorods were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopies (SEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Raman spectrum, respectively. Experiments showed the VO2(B) phase were firstly formed and then it transformed into VO2(A) as increasing hydrothermal reaction temperature from 180 °C to 230 °C. For our VO2(A) nanorods, the phase transition temperature could be observed by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) measurement, 171.7 °C was higher than that of 162 °C for VO2(A) phase, which might be ascribed to the lower crystallinity or nonstoichiometry in VO2(A) nanorods.

Objective To investigate the histological characteristics and pathophysiological changes in diabetic skin. Methods: 12 Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 200–220 g were divided into control and STZ-induced diabetic groups. The shaved skin specimens from the back of rats were collected on 8 w post STZ-inducing. The cutaneous histological characteristics were observed. The local contents of glucose, advanced glycation end products(AGEs) and hydroxyproline, the levels of aMMP-2 and TIMP-2, and the cell cycles of both keratinocytes and dermal cells were determined. Results: The thicknesses of epidermis layer and dermis layer were both reduced obviously in diabetic skin, with the morphological characteristics of the obscured multilayer epithelium features and the decreased amount of spinous in epidermis; the atrophied, swollen and degenerated collagen fibers with a focal chronic inflammatory cells infiltration. The results also revealed that contents of glucose, AGEs, the level of aMMP-2 and the ratio of aMMP-2/TIMP-2 in diabetic skin were higher than those in the controls. In diabetic group, the percentages of S stage and G2/M stages of keratinocytes were obviously decreased, while the dermal cells showed the higher percentage of S stage and the normal percentage of G2/M stages, when compared with the control group. Conclusion: The cutaneous histological and pathophysiological alterations in diabetes mellitus has already been occurred when exogenous damage is not existed, which presented an “underlying disorder” characteristics in diabetic skin. The cutaneous “underlying disorder” in diabetes might be a critical risk factor leading to ulceration and one of the most important mechanisms in the pathogenesis of impaired wound healing.