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Abstract This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD), with particular focus on their roles in shaping anomalous weather across North America. Our investigation reveals a consistent influence of the NAWD over seven decades, contrasting with fluctuating impacts from PNA and minor impacts from NAO. In particular, an emergent negative correlation between the NAWD and PNA, signaling a shifted phase of teleconnection patterns, is identified. Such a relationship change is traced to enhanced upper-level ridges across western North America, reflecting a reinforced winter stationary wave. Through attribution analysis, we identify greenhouse gas emissions as a probable driver for the northward drift of the Asia-Pacific jet core, which, aided by orographic lifting over the Alaskan Range, subsequently amplifies the winter stationary wave across western North America. This work emphasizes the pronounced effect of human-induced global warming on the structure and teleconnection of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing vital perspectives on the dynamics of current climate trends.

Abstract In recent decades, the interior regions of Eurasia and North America have experienced several unprecedentedly cold winters despite the global surface air temperature increases. One possible explanation of these increasing extreme cold winters comes from the so-called Warm Arctic Cold Continent (WACC) pattern, reflecting the effects of the amplified Arctic warming in driving the circulation change over surrounding continents. This study analyzed reanalysis data and model experiments forced by different levels of anthropogenic forcing. It is found that WACC exists on synoptic scales in observations, model’s historical and even future runs. In the future, the analysis suggests a continued presence of WACC but with a slightly weakened cold extreme due to the overall warming. Warm Arctic events under the warmer climate will be associated with not only a colder continent in East Asia but also a warmer continent, depending on the teleconnection process that is also complicated by the warmer Arctic. Such an increasingly association suggests a reduction in potential predictability of the midlatitude winter anomalies.

Abstract The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) used to affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and Australian summer monsoon (AusSM) precipitation in different ways but global warming may have changed it. This study built robust annual ASM (AusSM) precipitation reconstructions during 1588–2013 (1588–1999) to examine the ENSO-monsoon relationship and how it has changed. During the period of 1588–1850 when natural climate variability was dominant, the ENSO-monsoon and inter-monsoon relationship was weak and non-stationary. Since 1850, however, both the inter-monsoon and ENSO-monsoon relationships saw an enhancement and this trend has been persistent to the present day, suggesting the influence of anthropogenic climate warming. Further analysis of climate model projections found that global warming can strengthen the ENSO-monsoon association that, subsequently, acts to synchronize the ASM and AusSM variations.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can help predict water shortages in the Colorado River basin, according to analyses of decadal climate predictions and observations.

Equatorial Rossby waves (ERWs) are manifest as westward-propagating, planetary- scale waves that feature a symmetric pair of pressure and zonal wind fields about the equator. ERWs can modulate tropical convective activity, especially in South Asia and the Maritime Continents, and represent an important mode of intraseasonal variability additional to the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Changes in the frequency and intensity of ERWs during the recent decades were investigated based on observations of tropospheric winds and tropical convection. Spectral analyses indicated that ERWs appear to have intensified especially in the upper troposphere; this is associated with increased convective activity located off the equator. The strengthening and westward shift of the Walker circulation observed in the recent decades acted to increase the tropical vertical westerly shear and, subsequently, may contribute to the increased ERW activity. Further investigation on the dynamical process of the vertical zonal shear enhancement will improve the understanding of the changing ERW characteristics.

Abstract The active phase of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in Taiwan during May and June, known as Meiyu, produces substantial precipitation for water uses in all sectors of society. Following a companion study that analysed the historical increase in the Meiyu precipitation, the present study conducted model evaluation and diagnosis based on the EASM lifecycle over Taiwan. Higher and lower skill groups were identified from 17 Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, with five models in each group. Despite the difference in model performance, both groups projected a substantial increase in the Meiyu precipitation over Taiwan. In the higher skill group, weak circulation changes and reduced low‐level convergence point to a synoptically unfavourable condition for precipitation. In the lower skill group, intensified low‐level southwesterly winds associated with a deepened upper level trough enhance moisture pooling. Thus, the projected increase in Meiyu precipitation will likely occur through the combined effects of (1) the extension of a strengthened North Pacific anticyclone enhancing southwesterlies; and (2) more systematically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship that increases precipitation intensity in a warmer climate. The overall increase in the Meiyu precipitation projected by climate models of variable performance supports the observed tendency toward more intense rainfall in Taiwan and puts its early June 2017 extreme precipitation events into perspective.

We investigate historical and projected precipitation in Tanzania using observational and climate model data. Precipitation in Tanzania is highly variable in both space and time due to topographical variations, coastal influences, and the presence of lakes. Annual and seasonal precipitation trend analyses from 1961 to 2016 show maximum rainfall decline in Tanzania during the long rainy season in the fall (March−May), and an increasing precipitation trend in northwestern Tanzania during the short rainy season in the spring (September−November). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis applied to Tanzania’s precipitation patterns shows a stronger correlation with warmer temperatures in the western Indian Ocean than with the eastern-central Pacific Ocean. Years with decreasing precipitation in Tanzania appear to correspond with increasing sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean, suggesting that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may have a greater effect on rainfall variability in Tanzania than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) does. Overall, the climate model ensemble projects increasing precipitation trend in Tanzania that is opposite with the historical decrease in precipitation. This observed drying trend also contradicts a slightly increasing precipitation trend from climate models for the same historical time period, reflecting challenges faced by modern climate models in representing Tanzania’s precipitation.

The characteristics of intense diurnal precipitation occurring beneath the South Asian High (SAH) are diagnosed in the summer monsoon season from 2010 to 2015 using observational data. The diagnostics indicate that summer nighttime rainfall events in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau can intensify towards the end of the monsoon period. By defining a transition index to identify the transition day during which the episodes of diurnal convection start to decline, daily thermodynamic properties and precipitation from each year were composited before and after the transition date. The analysis reveals that warmer air, increased moisture, and stronger upward velocity are present in the atmosphere before the transition day, potentially elevating nighttime convective precipitation. Enhanced upward velocity that is present through the two months prior to transition date coincides with the timing of the peak SAH, while weakened upward velocity afterwards coincides with its subsequent retreat. The large-scale lift due to terrain-ambient air interaction underneath the SAH and the increased moisture content can enhance the potential for diurnal convection, which lends support to the nighttime peak of rainfall. This feature persists until the transition date, after which the SAH starts to retreat.

The future of the Colorado River water supply (WS) affects millions of people and the US economy. A recent study suggested a cross-basin correlation between the Colorado River and its neighboring Great Salt Lake (GSL). Following that study, the feasibility of using the previously developed multi-year prediction of the GSL water level to forecast the Colorado River WS was tested. Time-series models were developed to predict the changes in WS out to 10 years. Regressive methods and the GSL water level data were used for the depiction of decadal variability of the Colorado River WS. Various time-series models suggest a decline in the 10-year averaged WS since 2013 before starting to increase around 2020. Comparison between this WS prediction and the WS projection published in a 2012 government report (derived from climate models) reveals a widened imbalance between supply and demand by 2020, a tendency that is confirmed by updated WS observation. Such information could aid in management decision-making in the face of near-future water shortages.

In India, a significant reduction of wheat yield would cause a widespread impact on food security for 1.35 billion people. The two highest wheat producing states, Punjab and Haryana in northern India, experienced a prolonged period of anomalously low wheat yield during 2002⁻2010. The extent of climate variability and change in influencing this prolonged reduction in wheat yield was examined. Daily air temperature (Tmax and Tave) was used to calculate the number of days above optimum temperature and growing degree days (GDD) anomaly. Two drought indices, the standard precipitation and evapotranspiration index and the radiation-based precipitation index, were used to describe the drought conditions. Groundwater variability was assessed via satellite-based approximation. The analysis results indicate that the wheat yield loss corresponds to the increase in the number of days with a temperature above 35 °C during the maturity stage (March). Reduction in monsoon rainfall led to a depletion of groundwater and reduced surface water for irrigation in the wheat growing season (November⁻March). Higher temperatures, coupled with water shortage and irregular irrigation, also appear to impact the yield reduction. In hindsight, improving the agronomic practices to minimize crop water usage could be an adaptation strategy to maintain the desired wheat yield in the face of climate-induced drought and precipitation anomaly.

Stage-wise precipitation evolution over East Asia, primarily from spring to summer, is influenced by nearby monsoons and can be topographically driven. Corresponding to the onset of the Asian summer monsoon circulation, the Meiyu-Baiu occurs rapidly in May, replacing the East Asian spring rains. The Meiyu-Baiu rapidly terminates in late July due to the synchronous development of the subtropical monsoons extending from Africa to the East Asia–Western North Pacific (WNP). In late summer–autumn, the monsoonal circulation gradually retreats, in contrast to the rapid and stepwise transitions of the monsoon. This study reviews the role of the Indochina Peninsula in modulating the seasonality of nearby monsoons, primarily based on previous modeling works, and expands the analysis for a full view of the annual monsoon cycle. The review and additional results highlight the role of the topographical processes of the Indochina Peninsula in driving the rapid monsoonal transitions, which correspond to the early summer vertical circulation coupling over the Bay of Bengal-Indochina Peninsula and the late-July WNP monsoon onset. In the simulation with a flattened topography, the southerly winds disappear over the Indochina Peninsula and the westerly winds gradually expand eastward across the Indochina Peninsula in the lower troposphere.

In the Western North Pacific (WNP), the atmospheric low-level convergence is one of the main factors that influences the genesis of tropical cyclones (TC). It has been observed that the timing of the seasonal maxima in the low-level convergence and TC genesis has shifted since the mid-1990s from mid-August to late-July, with this shift having also affected the number of TC. A multidecadal frequency of 20 years was revealed in the timing variation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the Western Pacific, in which a weak WNP low-level convergence in spring may trigger an advanced ISO phase in summer and vice versa. The present diagnostic analysis does not identify any prominent oceanic variations associated with these multidecadal variations in the summer ISO or in the spring setup of the ISO. The atmospheric circulation does show an anomaly, which suggests an intensified extension of the subtropical high. The possible mechanism may be related to stochastic low-frequency variability of the atmosphere, which acts to influence the seasonal evolution of the WNP low-level convergence.

Snowpack observations in the Intermountain West are sparse and short, making them difficult for use in depicting past variability and extremes. This study presents a reconstruction of April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) for the period of 1850–1989 using increment cores collected by the U.S. Forest Service, Interior West Forest Inventory and Analysis program (FIA). In the state of Utah, SWE was reconstructed for 38 snow course locations using a combination of standardized tree-ring indices derived from both FIA increment cores and publicly available tree-ring chronologies. These individual reconstructions were then interpolated to a 4-km grid using an objective analysis with elevation correction to create an SWE product. The results showed a significant correlation with observed SWE as well as good correspondence to regional tree-ring-based drought reconstructions. Diagnostic analysis showed statewide coherent climate variability on inter-annual and inter-decadal time-scales, with added geographical details that would not be possible using courser pre-instrumental proxy datasets. This SWE reconstruction provides water resource managers and forecasters with better spatial resolution to examine past variability in snowpack, which will be important as future hydroclimatic variability is amplified by climate change.

The 2020–2021 record drought in Taiwan halted carbon sequestration in its predominantly evergreen subtropical forests. The analysis uncovers a significant correlation between net ecosystem exchange, radiative factors, groundwater levels, and wildfires, indicating that the severity of droughts leads to a shift from carbon absorption to emission in these forests, thereby inviting a broader examination of the climate–carbon nexus in future scenarios.

Long-term changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) lifecycle since 1979 are analyzed based on observational datasets and historical simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). According to the observation, the active and break phases of EASM have intensified resulting in a shorter but stronger rainy season, followed by a longer dry spell. This intensification in the active-phase precipitation is accompanied by increased lower tropospheric southwesterly wind and subsequent convergence of water vapor flux. These changes are accompanied by the widely reported westward extension of the North Pacific Subtropical High, which has been associated with the warming climate. CMIP6 models generally underestimated the observed intensification of the EASM lifecycle and the monsoon precipitation. However, some of the models did simulate the intensified EASM lifecycle similar to that observed. The result highlights the reasonable performance on EASM shown in some CMIP6 models and those simulations lend support to a dynamically-driven intensification of the EASM lifecycle in the warmer climate.

Historical wildfire events in California have shown a tendency to occur every five to seven years with a rapidly increasing tendency in recent decades. This oscillation is evident in multiple historical climate records, some more than a century long, and appears to be continuing. Analysis shows that this 5–7 year oscillation is linked to a sequence of anomalous large-scale climate patterns with an eastward propagation in both the ocean and atmosphere. While warmer temperature emerges from the northern central Pacific to the west coast of California, La Niña pattern develops simultaneously, implying that the lifecycle of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that takes multiple years to form could be a trigger. The evolving patterns of the Pacific-to-North America atmospheric teleconnection suggest the role of tropical and subtropical forcing embedded in this lifecycle. These results highlight the semi-cyclical hydrological behavior as a climate driver for wildfire variability in California.

Before Cyclone Amphan took place in 2020, Cyclone Fani (May 2019) is the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) since 1991, killing 90 people in eastern India and Bangladesh while causing US$1.81 billion of damages. Fani developed during a period of high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB with abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), thereby presenting an opportunity to understand the compound effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional climate warming on a tropical cyclone. A quantitative attribution analysis was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) run at the convection-permitting (4 km) grid spacing, accompanied by an ensemble of coarser-resolution simulations to quantify the uncertainty. The removal of post-1990 trends in the tropospheric variables and SST from WRF-Chem’s initial conditions (IC) and boundary conditions (BC, including the lateral and lower boundary conditions) resulted in a reduction of cyclone precipitation by about 51% during the 5 d of April 28-May 2. The removal of tropospheric warming shows approximately twice as strong an effect on Fani (39% reduction in precipitation) as that of SST warming (22% reduction). When aerosol’s direct and indirect effects were removed from the simulations, i.e., no aerosol influence on radiation and cloud microphysics, Fani initially strengthened but later weakened, as measured by geopotential height and precipitation amounts. These results suggest that aerosol and its interaction with the atmosphere acted to mitigate the strengthening effect of anthropogenic warming on Fani, but was not strong enough to entirely counteract it. Although the ensemble of coarser simulations appears to overestimate Cyclone Fani in terms of precipitation, the direction of the effects is in agreement with that obtained from the 4 km simulations. Given the increasing anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB, future attribution studies using more sophisticated dynamical aerosol models on BOB tropical cyclones are urged.

We investigate the feasibility of developing decadal prediction models for autumn rainfall ( R A ) over Central Vietnam by utilizing a published tree-ring reconstruction of October–November (ON) rainfall derived from the earlywood width measurements from a type of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis). Autumn rainfall for this region accounts for a large percentage of the annual total, and is often the source of extreme flooding. Central Vietnam’s R A is characterized by a pronounced decadal oscillation signal. We use the decadal mode of R A along with its notable autocorrelation and significant cross-correlation with basin-wide Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, to develop four discrete time-series models. The sparse autoregressive model, with Pacific SST as an external variable, accounts for most of the autoregressive R A , while taking advantage of the predictability from the basin-wide Pacific climate oscillation. Using this model, the decadal prediction of R A can be reasonably achieved with a 10-year-ahead forecasting skill score (SS) about 0.46. We therefore suggest, with this paper, that forecasting R A for Central Vietnam for multiple years ahead is possible using a time-series model.