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We study gain‐sharing agreements in a target price‐minimum quality payment system. Our work is inspired by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) bundled payment model. In our model, patients receive care from a hospital and a post‐acute care provider. A third‐party payer establishes target levels for total billing by the hospital and provider, and a target on the overall quality of care. The hospital and provider receive fee‐for‐service (FFS) billings during an episode of care, defined as the period that starts with an admission of a patient to the hospital and ends 90 days post‐discharge. The hospital may also receive an incentive payment if total FFS billing by both parties is below the target price and total quality by both parties is above the minimum quality. The goal of the incentive payment is to encourage hospitals to enter into “gain‐sharing” agreements with providers. We model the interactions between the three parties. We show that while using a gain‐sharing agreement might be a “win‐win‐win” scenario for the three parties, good design of the payment scheme by the payer is essential to incentivize a hospital to participate in the bundled payment model (e.g., CJR) and sign a gain‐sharing agreement with the provider. Furthermore, we illustrate that a target price‐minimum quality bundled payment model would be more effective, in care‐coordination, in healthcare settings where the provider is much more effective than the hospital in reducing its billing.

BACKGROUND: Access to primary care outside of regular working hours is limited in many countries. This study investigates the relation between the after-hours premium, an incentive for primary care physicians to provide services after hours, and less-urgent visits to the emergency department in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We analyzed a retrospective cohort of a random sample of Ontario residents from April 2002 to March 2006, and a subcohort of patients followed from April 2005 to March 2016. We linked patient and primary care physician data with emergency department visit data. We used fixed-effects regression models to analyze the association between the introduction of the after-hours premium, as well as subsequent increases in the value of the premium, and the number of monthly emergency department visits. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 586 534 patients between 2002 and 2006, and 201 594 patients from 2005 to 2016. After controlling for patient and physician characteristics, seasonality and time-invariant patient confounding factors, introduction of the after-hours premium was associated with a reduction of 1.26 less-urgent visits to the emergency department per 1000 patients per month (95% confidence interval −1.48 to −1.04). Most of this reduction was observed in after-hours visits. Sensitivity analysis showed that the monthly reduction in less-urgent visits to the emergency department was in the range of −1.24 to −1.16 per 1000 patients. Subsequent increases in the after-hours premium were associated with a small reduction in less-urgent visits to the emergency department. INTERPRETATION: Ontario’s experience suggests that incentivizing physicians to improve access to after-hours primary care reduces some less-urgent visits to the emergency department. Other jurisdictions may consider incentives to limit less-urgent visits to the emergency department.

The natural history of psychopathology indicates that many children will re-experience mental health problems. However, little is known about service use over extended time periods. We explored service use of a 5-year time period, and expected to find that some children received mental health services for many months, and some received services in episodes. Administrative visit data from 6 child and youth mental health service agencies and over 7000 children, 4 to 11 years old at their first visit in 2000–2003, were analyzed. Episodes of care were coded based on having a minimum of three visits with 180-day free period between episodes. Chart reviews were conducted for a stratified random sample of 319 cases to obtain clinical and demographic sample characteristics not available in the administrative data. Five patterns of service use were identified in 5 years of visit data using latent class cluster analyses. Close to a third of children were involved for longer than a year, and 19% received two or more episodes of care within the 5-year study period. Children who had patterns of service use with long durations of involvement tended to have a higher percentage of cases with child welfare involvement, and children had fewer strengths in terms of relationships with peers and adults, and abilities to manage negative life experiences. Best methods of caring for children with ongoing or episodic problems need to be developed, and we need to improve methods for identifying those children who might benefit from alternative models of care.

China is poised to become the world's second-largest oncology drug market. Its ability to continue broadening health coverage is in question. Institutional innovations such as performance-based risk-sharing agreements (PBRSAs) have been developed to promote access to novel therapeutics beyond that provided by public health insurance and central procurement systems. We examine in depth the financial implications of a PBRSA developed in China for the breast cancer drug palbociclib.We generated a 2-state Markov model from PBRSA information made publicly available. Model inputs included breast cancer outcomes data from the published literature. The primary analysis estimates the percentage reduction in overall drug expenditures due to the PBRSA. Sensitivity analyses explored the financial impact of varied computed tomography scan utilization, rebate rate, and rebate duration.Estimated palbociclib expenditures for the PBRSA cohort totaled $36 278 000. Based on the publicly available information for the PBRSA, an effective discount of 1.3% was estimated. The effective discount was insensitive to changes in computed tomography scan utilization.The palbociclib PBRSA likely had negligible impact on patient access to therapy and limited downstream financial impact to patients and payers. The short duration of the rebate window, small rebate, and disease indolence contributed to the low expected rebate percentage.

Pharmaceutical spending in the United States, Canada, and the EU is growing. Public payers cover a large portion of these costs and have responded by instituting various pricing and access policies to limit their expenditure. One challenge that public payers face is additional demand induced by a manufacturer's marketing effort. We use a game theoretic approach to study the impact of pharmaceutical marketing on six practical pricing and access policies: negotiated pricing, open pricing, controlled pricing, a listing process, a risk-sharing arrangement, and a value-based pricing with risk-sharing arrangement. We find that all non-value-based policies result in either restricted access or suboptimal treatment coverage. We find that marketing is the highest in the first-best setting where all decisions are made by a social planner. We also find that the value-based pricing with risk-sharing arrangement is preferred by the manufacturer and from a societal perspective whereas no policy is universally preferred by a health care payer. A value-based pricing with risk-sharing arrangement always results in zero net monetary benefit for a health care payer. Therefore, considering non-value-based arrangements, we find that a negotiated pricing policy, a controlled pricing policy, or a risk-sharing arrangement may be socially preferred.

Gene expression profiling (GEP) testing using 12-gene recurrence score (RS) assay (EndoPredict®), 58-gene RS assay (Prosigna®), and 21-gene RS assay (Oncotype DX®) is available to aid in chemotherapy decision-making when traditional clinicopathological predictors are insufficient to accurately determine recurrence risk in women with axillary lymph node-negative, hormone receptor-positive, and human epidermal growth factor-receptor 2-negative early-stage breast cancer. We examined the cost-effectiveness of incorporating these assays into standard practice. A decision model was built to project lifetime clinical and economic consequences of different adjuvant treatment-guiding strategies. The model was parameterized using follow-up data from a secondary analysis of the Anastrozole or Tamoxifen Alone or Combined randomized trial, cost data (2017 Canadian dollars) from the London Regional Cancer Program (Canada) and secondary Canadian sources. The 12-gene, 58-gene, and 21-gene RS assays were associated with cost-effectiveness ratios of $36,274, $48,525, and $74,911/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and resulted in total gains of 379, 284.3, and 189.5 QALYs/year and total budgets of $12.9, $14.2, and $16.6 million/year, respectively. The total expected-value of perfect information about GEP assays' utility was $10.4 million/year. GEP testing using any of these assays is likely clinically and economically attractive. The 12-gene and 58-gene RS assays may improve the cost-effectiveness of GEP testing and offer higher value for money, although prospective evidence is still needed. Comparative field evaluations of GEP assays in real-world practice are associated with a large societal benefit and warranted to determine the optimal and most cost-effective assay for routine use.

Purpose: We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of mastectomy with and without different reconstruction for the purpose of determining which strategies represent value for money and identify the most cost-effective technique from the perspective of Ontario's health care system. Methods: We developed a decision analytic model to project the lifetime clinical and economic consequences of different strategies .The decision model was parameterized using 10-year follow up and cost data from Ontario administrative health databases and Ontario Cancer registry and utility data from secondary Canadian sources. Costs are presented in 2018 Canadian dollars. Future costs and benefits were discounted at 5%. Results: Compared to organized screening-based strategy, surgical strategies ranged from being more effective and cost-saving and up to being associated with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $63,010 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, with BPM with immediate one-stage acellular dermal matrix (ADM)-assisted implant breast reconstruction having the greatest incremental QALY of 1.157 and lowest ICER of $9,615. Incorporating the PBM with one-stage ADM-assisted implant immediate breast reconstruction as the standard surgical strategy in Ontario would result in the largest total annual net gains of 20 QALYs and $ 1.7 million. Table 1Baseline life-time outcomes of the decision model. Extensive breast cancer screening alone vs. surgical interventionsStrategyOverall QALYsOverall costInc. QALYInc. costICER per QALY gainedExtensive breast cancer screening18.549$90,231Ref.Ref.Ref.Prophylactic bilateral mastectomy without breast reconstruction19.057$82,011+0.508−$8,220Cost-savingProphylactic bilateral mastectomy with two-stage traditional TE-implant immediate breast reconstruction19.364$111,319+0.815+$21,088$25,868 (dominated)Prophylactic bilateral mastectomy with one-stage ADM-assisted implant immediate breast reconstruction19.706$101,359+1.157+$11,128$9,615Prophylactic bilateral mastectomy with two-stage ADM-assisted TE-implant immediate breast reconstruction19.065$122,757+0.516+$32,526$63,010 (dominated)Prophylactic bilateral mastectomy with any type of autologous immediate breast reconstruction (with or without TE or breast implant)19.501$114,014+0.951+$23,784$24,988 (dominated)Prophylactic bilateral mastectomy with one-stage non-ADM immediate breast reconstruction19.408$103,512+0.859+$13,282$15,457 (dominated)Prophylactic bilateral mastectomy with delayed breast reconstruction19.241$107,582+0.691+$17,351$25,087 (dominated)ADM;acellular dermal matrix ; TE=Tissue Expander; ICER=Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; QALY=Quality adjusted life year Conclusion: The choice of breast reconstruction needs to be decided based on the patient body habitus, general condition and goals . BPM with and without reconstruction is likely both clinically and economically attractive. However ,all other things being equal , BPM with immediate one-stage ADM-assisted implant breast reconstruction is the most cost effective strategy and appears to offer the highest value for money. Citation Format: Aljohani BE, Hannouf MB, Grant A, Doherty C, Zaric GS, Brackstone M. Cost effectiveness of bilateral prophylactic mastectomy with and without different breast reconstruction techniques versus screening in women with high risk of breast cancer in the Canadian Province of Ontario [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD6-09.

We study the type-2 integrated process-planning and scheduling (IPPS) problem where each job is represented by a directed network graph. To the best of our knowledge, there is only one mathematical model in the literature implementing the type-2 IPPS partially, and the solution methods available for this problem are all based on heuristics and metaheuristics. We introduce three properties that enable us to fully formulate all aspects of the type-2 IPPS problem with a mathematical programming model for the first time. To solve our model, we propose a logic-based Benders decomposition hybridized with constraint programming. We decompose the problem into two smaller problems in such a way that we can use the best solution technique for each part. To enhance our solution approach, we develop a relaxation. We evaluate our proposed method using a well-known benchmark including 24 instances and compare its performance with eight existing solution methods solving the same benchmark. We solve all the 24 instances of this benchmark to optimality where seven of these 24 instances are solved to optimality for the first time. We also generate a set of new 144 larger instances to further evaluate our solution methods and provide insights on when each method performs better.

Objectives In the middle to late 2000s, many family physicians switched from a Family Health Group (FHG; a blended fee-for-service model) to a Family Health Organization (FHO; a blended capitation model) in Ontario, Canada. The evidence on the link between physician remuneration schemes and quality of diabetes care is mixed in the literature. We examined whether physicians who switched from the FHG to FHO model provided better care for individuals living with diabetes relative to those who remained in the FHG model. Methods Using longitudinal health administrative data from 2006 to 2016, we investigated the impact of physicians switching from FHG to FHO on 8 quality indicators related to diabetes care. Because FHO physicians are likely to be systematically different from FHGs, we employed propensity-score-based inverse probability-weighted fixed-effects regression models. All analyses were conducted at the physician level. Results We found that FHO physicians were more likely to provide glycated hemoglobin testing by 2.75% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.89% to 3.60%), lipid assessment by 2.76% (CI, 1.95% to 3.57%), nephropathy screening by 1.08% (95% CI, 0.51% to 1.66%) and statin prescription by 1.08% (95% CI, 0.51% to 1.66%). Patients under FHOs had a lower estimated risk of mortality by 0.0124% (95% CI, 0.0123% to 0.0126%) per physician per year. However, FHG and FHO physicians were similar for annual eye examination, prescription of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (or angiotensin II receptor blockers) and patients’ risk of avoidable diabetes-related hospitalizations. Conclusions Compared with blended fee-for-service, blended capitation payment is associated with a small, but statistically significant, improvement in some aspects of diabetes care.

Purpose The phase 2 randomized study SABR-COMET demonstrated that in patients with controlled primary tumors and 1 to 5 oligometastatic lesions, SABR was associated with improved progression-free survival (PFS) compared with standard of care (SoC), but with higher costs and treatment-related toxicities. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of SABR versus SoC in this setting. Methods and Materials A Markov model was constructed to perform a cost-utility analysis from the Canadian health care system perspective. Utility values and transition probabilities were derived from individual-level data from the SABR-COMET trial. One-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Costs were expressed in 2018 CAD. A separate analysis based on US payer’s perspective was performed. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was used. Results In the base case scenario, SABR was cost-effective at an ICER of $37,157 per QALY gained. This finding was most sensitive to the number of metastatic lesions treated with SABR (ICER: $28,066 per QALY for 2, increasing to $64,429 per QALY for 5), difference in chemotherapy use (ICER: $27,173-$53,738 per QALY), and PFS hazard ratio (HR) between strategies (ICER: $31,548-$53,273 per QALY). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that SABR was cost-effective in 97% of all iterations. Two-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated a nonlinear relationship between the number of lesions and the PFS HR. To maintain cost-effectiveness for each additional metastasis, the HR must decrease by approximately 0.047. The US cost analysis yielded similar results, with an ICER of $54,564 (2018 USD per QALY) for SABR. Conclusions SABR is cost-effective for patients with 1 to 5 oligometastatic lesions compared with SoC.

We model and solve an integrated multi-period staffing, assignment, routing, and scheduling for home care services under uncertainty. The goal is to construct a weekly schedule that adheres to related operational considerations and determines optimal staffing of caregivers by minimizing caregivers’ fixed- and overtime costs. For tractability, we incorporate a priori generated visit patterns—an existing practical approach that deals effectively with hard assignment decisions in. First, we propose a novel mixed-integer program (MIP) for the nominal problem. We then incorporate uncertainty in service and travel times and develop a robust counterpart by hybridizing interval and polyhedral uncertainty sets. Second, we show that there is a special mathematical structure within the model that allows us to develop a novel logic-based Benders branching-decomposition algorithm that systematically delays the resolution of difficult routing/ scheduling problems and efficiently solves both the nominal and robust MIP models. Using a dataset from the literature, we show that CPLEX can solve our nominal and robust models with an average optimality gaps of 44.56% and 45.53%, respectively. Using the same dataset, we demonstrate that our new exact technique can solve our nominal and robust mixed-integer models to an average optimality gap of 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively. Third, we provide practical insights into (i) the price of robustness and (ii) the impacts of nurse flexibility and overtime. The average total cost does not increase beyond 12.7% than the nominal solution and the cost-savings of nurse flexibility is approximately five times higher than that of overtime.

Financial incentives have been introduced in several countries to improve diabetes management. In Ontario, the most populous province in Canada, a Diabetes Management Incentive (DMI) was introduced to family physicians practicing in patient enrollment models in 2006. This paper examines the impact of the DMI on diabetes-related services provided to individuals with diabetes in Ontario. Longitudinal health administrative data were obtained for adults diagnosed with diabetes and their family physicians. The study population consisted of two groups: DMI group (patients enrolled with a family physician exposed to DMI for 3 years), and comparison group (patients affiliated with a family physician ineligible for DMI throughout the study period). Diabetes-related services was measured using the Diabetic Management Assessment (DMA) billing code claimed by patient's physician. The impact of DMI on diabetes-related services was assessed using difference-in-differences regression models. After adjusting for patient- and physician-level characteristics, patient fixed-effects and patient-specific time trend, we found that DMI increased the probability of having at least one DMA fee code claimed by patient's physician by 9.3% points, and the probability of having at least three DMA fee codes claimed by 2.1% points. Subgroup analyses revealed the impact of DMI was slightly larger in males compared to females. We found that Ontario's DMI was effective in increasing the diabetes-related services provided to patients diagnosed with diabetes in Ontario. Financial incentives for physicians help improve the provision of targeted diabetes-related services.

Very few studies have examined trends in multimorbidity over time and even fewer have examined trends over time across different body mass index (BMI) groups. Given a general decline in death rates but increased cardiovascular risk factors among individuals with obesity, the trend in the association between obesity and multimorbidity is hypothesized to be increasing over time. The data for our study came from the 1996-97 National Population Health Survey and the 2005 and 2012-13 Canadian Community Health Surveys (N = 277,366 across all 3 surveys). We examined trends in the association between BMI groups and multimorbidity using a logistic regression model. We also investigated trends in the prevalence of specific chronic conditions, pairs of chronic conditions and different levels of multimorbidity across BMI groups. We found significantly greater levels of multimorbidity in 2005 (OR = 1.42; p

In highly congested hospitals it may be common for patients to overstay at Intensive Care Units (ICU) due to blockages and imbalances in capacity. This is inadequate clinically, as patients occupy a service they no longer need; operationally, as it disrupts flow from upstream units; and financially as ICU beds are more expensive than ward beds. Step-down beds, also known as Level 2 beds, have become an increasingly popular and less expensive alternative to ICU beds to deal with this issue. We developed a discrete event simulation model that estimates Level 2 bed needs for a large university hospital. The model innovates by simulating the entirety of the hospital’s inpatient flow and most importantly, the ICU’s daily stochastic flows based on a nursing workload scoring metrics called “Nine Equivalents of Nursing Manpower Use Score” (NEMS). Using data from a large academic hospital, the model shows the benefits of Level 2 beds in improving both patient flow and costs.

BACKGROUND Longer waiting times in cancer care are associated with lower care quality and wait-related patient dissatisfaction. We analyzed the variability and median of waiting times from when a patient seeks care to first treatment for the 4 most prevalent cancer types in Ontario. METHODS Using retrospective health administrative data, we identified patients with a new diagnosis of prostate, breast, lung or colorectal cancer in Ontario between 2002 and 2012. Treatment interventions were categorized as chemotherapy, radiotherapy or surgery. We used regression analyses to calculate trends for the coefficient of variation, the Gini coefficient and the median waiting time for each cancer type-treatment type pair over the study period. RESULTS During the study period, 95 501 new cases of prostate cancer, 89 244 breast cancer cases, 82 604 lung cancer cases and 80 761 colorectal cancer cases were registered. The coefficient of variation and the Gini coefficient of waiting times decreased for all cancer type-treatment type pairs (except for the Gini coefficient for breast cancer-radiotherapy) over the study period. However, both decreasing and increasing trends in median waiting times were observed across cancer type-treatment type pairs. INTERPRETATION The variability of waiting time to first treatment for patients with prostate, breast, lung or colorectal cancer decreased between 2002 and 2012, which indicates improvements in equity in access to cancer care. This trend aligns with provincial efforts to improve access to and the efficiency of cancer care treatment in Ontario. The lack of consistent decreases in median waiting time highlights the need to identify improvement opportunities for cancer type-treatment type pairs with increasing median waiting times.

Second-generation multi-gene expression assays can generate comprehensive molecular risk scores which may inform adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in women with early breast cancer. The 12-gene EPclin score assay (EndoPredict®) and 50-gene PAM50-risk of recurrence (ROR) score assay (Prosigna®) appeared to have better prognostic value when compared to the current north American standard 21-gene recurrence score (RS) assay (Oncotype DX®). We sought to investigate the cost-effectiveness of using EPclin and ROR score assays versus RS assay in women with axillary lymph node-negative (LN−), hormone receptor–positive (HR+), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2–negative (HER2−) early-stage operable breast cancer (ESBC) from the perspective of the Canadian public healthcare system. We developed a Markov model to project the lifetime clinical and economic consequences of operable LN- HR+ HER2− ESBC. We assumed that women within each risk category by RS assay (low, intermediate and high) would be reclassified to binary risk categories (low and high) by EPclin score assay and to three risk categories (low, intermediate and high) by ROR score assay. The decision model was parameterized using 10-year follow up data from retrospective analyses of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen, Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial, cost data from the London Regional Cancer Program (Ontario, Canada) and secondary sources. Costs are presented in 2017 Canadian dollars. Future costs and benefits were discounted at 5%. EPclin and ROR score-based strategies led to an increase of 0.04 and 0.02 quality adjusted life years (QALY)/person and a decrease in cost of $917 and $600/person respectively, resulting in both strategies being cost-saving compared to RS-based strategy. Incorporating the EPclin and ROR score assays in place of the current standard RS-assay for operable LN- HR+ HER2− ESBC patients in Canada would result in total gains of 469 and 250 QALYs/year and total savings of $11.5 and $7.5 million/year, respectively. EPclin compared to ROR score-based strategy led to an increase of 0.02 QALY/person and a decrease in cost of $317/person, resulting in EPclin score-based strategy being dominant. Our results were most sensitive to the proportion of women classified by EPclin and ROR score assays to different risk categories and who received adjuvant chemotherapy. A value-of-information analysis revealed that the total expected value of perfect information about the EPclin and ROR score assays' clinical impact was $95 and $55 million/year, respectively. Our results indicate that the EPclin and ROR score assays are both clinically and economically attractive for patients with operable LN- HR+ HER2− ESBC in the Canadian healthcare setting. Both assays should be considered for adoption in place of the current standard RS-assay for this patient population. The EPclin compared to the ROR score assay appears to be clinically more promising and provides greater value for money in the Canadian healthcare system. Field evaluations of the EPclin and ROR score assays in real-world Canadian clinical practice are associated with a large societal benefit and warranted. Citation Format: Hannouf MB, Zaric GS, Brackstone M. Cost-effectiveness analysis of second-generation multi-gene expression prognostic assays compared with the standard 21-gene recurrence score assay to guide adjuvant therapy decisions in women with early stage breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P4-12-05.

Author(s): Hannouf, Malek B; Winquist, Eric; Mahmud, Salaheddin M; Brackstone, Muriel; Sarma, Sisira; Rodrigues, George; Rogan, Peter K; Hoch, Jeffrey S; Zaric, Gregory S | Abstract: PurposeThe purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of occult gastrointestinal (GI) primary tumours in patients with metastatic cancer of uncertain primary origin and evaluate their influence on treatments and overall survival (OS).Materials and methodsWe used population heath data from Manitoba, Canada to identify all patients initially diagnosed with metastatic cancer between 2002 and 2011. We defined patients to have "occult" primary tumour if the primary was found at least 6 months after initial diagnosis. Otherwise, we considered primary tumours as "obvious." We used propensity-score methods to match each patient with occult GI tumour to four patients with obvious GI tumour on all known clinicopathologic features. We compared treatments and 2-year survival data between the two patient groups and assessed treatment effect on OS using Cox regression adjustment.ResultsEighty-three patients had occult GI primary tumours, accounting for 17.6% of men and 14% of women with metastatic cancer of uncertain primary. A 1:4 matching created a matched group of 332 patients with obvious GI primary tumour. Occult cases compared to the matched group were less likely to receive surgical interventions and targeted biological therapy, and more likely to receive cytotoxic empiric chemotherapeutic agents. Having an occult GI tumour was associated with reduced OS and appeared to be a nonsignificant independent predictor of OS when adjusting for treatment differences.ConclusionGI tumours are the most common occult primary tumours in men and the second most common in women. Patients with occult GI primary tumours are potentially being undertreated with available GI site-specific and targeted therapies.

We develop an influenza vaccination supply chain model consisting of a health authority, a vaccine manufacturer, and the population. The health authority determines the order quantity and the cos to increase the vaccination rate; the manufacturer determines the production effort, subject to random yield; and the population determines the vaccination probability, which depends on the health authority's promotion effort and the realized vaccine supply. We find that the population has limited incentive to vaccinate due to free riding when there is no vaccine shortage, but has full incentive when there is a vaccine shortage. The manufacturer and the health authority have lower incentives for production and vaccine demand promotion in a decentralized system than in a centralized system. However, the health authority may pursue an aggressive ordering strategy in which the order quantity may be even higher than the level leading to herd immunity. We show that an outcome-based coordinating contract in whi...

In Canada's most populous province, Ontario, family physicians may choose between the blended fee-for-service (Family Health Group [FHG]) and blended capitation (Family Health Organization [FHO] payment models). Both models incentivize physicians to provide after-hours (AH) and comprehensive care, but FHO physicians receive a capitation payment per enrolled patient adjusted for age and sex, plus a reduced fee-for-service while FHG physicians are paid by fee-for-service. We develop a theoretical model of physician labor supply with multitasking to predict their behavior under FHG and FHO, and estimable equations are derived to test the predictions empirically. Using health administrative data from 2006 to 2014 and a two-stage estimation strategy, we study the impact of switching from FHG to FHO on the production of a capitated basket of services, after-hours services and nonincentivized services. Our results reveal that switching from the FHG to FHO reduces the production of capitated services to enrolled patients and services to nonenrolled patients by 15% and 5% per annum and increases the production of after-hours and nonincentivized services by 8% and 15% per annum.

Background Some children with mental health (MH) problems have been found to receive ongoing care, either continuously or episodically. We sought to replicate patterns of MH service use over extended time periods, and test predictors of these patterns. Methods Latent class analyses were applied to 4 years of visit data from five MH agencies and nearly 6000 children, 4- to 13-years-old at their first visit. Results Five patterns of service use were identified, replicating previous findings. Overall, 14% of cases had two or more episodes of care and 23% were involved for more than 2 years. Most children (53%) were seen for just a few visits within a few months. Two patterns represented cases with two or more episodes of care spanning multiple years. In the two remaining patterns, children tended to have just one episode of care, but the number of sessions and length of involvement varied. Using discriminant function analyses, we were able to predict with just over 50% accuracy children’s pattern of service use. Severe externalizing behaviors, high impairment, and high family burden predicted service use patterns with long durations of involvement and frequent visits. Conclusions Optimal treatment approaches for children seen for repeated episodes of care or for care lasting multiple years need to be developed. Children with the highest level of need (severe pathology, impairment, and burden) are probably best served by providing high intensity services at the start of care.

In this paper, we present a branch and bound algorithm for the parallel batch scheduling of jobs having different processing times, release dates and unit sizes. There are identical machines with a fixed capacity and the number of jobs in a batch cannot exceed the machine capacity. All batched jobs are processed together and the processing time of a batch is given by the greatest processing time of jobs in that batch. We compare our method to a mixed integer program as well as a method from the literature that is capable of optimally solving instances with a single machine. Computational experiments show that our method is much more efficient than the other two methods in terms of solution time for finding the optimal solution.

Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time.A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis for qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time.In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065).Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions and policies. We recommend improved adherence to published guidelines and further research to determine the clinical implications of our findings.

We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a 2000-gene-expression profiling (GEP) test to help identify the primary tumor site when clinicopathological diagnostic evaluation was inconclusive in patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP). We built a decision-analytic-model to project the lifetime clinical and economic consequences of different clinical management strategies for CUP. The model was parameterized using follow-up data from the Manitoba Cancer Registry, cost data from Manitoba Health administrative databases and secondary sources. The 2000-GEP-based strategy compared to current clinical practice resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $44,151 per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. The total annual-budget impact was $36.2 million per year. A value-of-information analysis revealed that the expected value of perfect information about the test's clinical impact was $4.2 million per year. The 2000-GEP test should be considered for adoption in CUP. Field evaluations of the test are associated with a large societal benefit.

Although a negative association between obesity and labour market outcomes is commonly reported in many studies, the causal nature of this relationship remains unclear. Using nationally representative longitudinal data from the last six confidential master files (2000/2001-2010/2011) of the National Population Health Survey, we examine the association between obesity and employment participation and earnings among working-age adults in Canada. After controlling for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, lifestyle factors and time-invariant individual heterogeneity, our results show that obesity is not significantly associated with employment participation but is associated with reduced hourly wage rate and annual income among women by about 4% and 4.5%, respectively. The corresponding results for men show that obesity is associated with about 2% reduction in wage rate and income, but significant at 10% level. However, after controlling for the potential reverse causality bias using the lagged measure of obesity, the effect of obesity on wage rate and income became positive or statistically non-significant. Our findings suggest that obesity is not causally associated with negative labour market outcomes among working-age men in Canada. For working-age women, we find limited evidence of negative labour market outcomes.

Many interpretations of personalized medicine, also referred to as precision medicine, include discussions of companion diagnostic tests that allow drugs to be targeted to those individuals who are most likely to benefit or that allow treatment to be designed in a way such that individuals who are unlikely to benefit do not receive treatment. Many authors have commented on the clinical and competitive implications of companion diagnostics, but there has been relatively little formal analysis of the cost implications of companion diagnostics, although cost reduction is often cited as a significant benefit of precision medicine. We investigate the potential impact on costs of precision medicine implemented through the use of companion diagnostics. We develop a framework in which the costs of companion diagnostic tests are determined by considerations of profit maximization and cost effectiveness. We analyze four scenarios that are defined by the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the new drug in the absence of a companion diagnostic test. We find that, in most scenarios, precision medicine strategies based on companion diagnostics should be expected to lead to increases in costs in the short term and that costs would fall only in a limited number of situations.

Team-based primary care offers a wide range of health services to patients by using interdisciplinary health care providers committed to delivering comprehensive, coordinated and high-quality care through team collaboration. Ontario's Family Health Team (FHT), the largest team-based practice model in Canada, was introduced to improve access to and effectiveness of primary health care services, and was available primarily for physicians paid under blended capitation models (Family Health Organizations and Family Health Networks). Using health administrative data on physicians practicing under blended capitation models in Ontario between 2006 and 2015, we study the impact of switching from non-FHT to FHTs on the production of capitated comprehensive care services, after-hours services, non-incentivized services, and services provided to non-enrolled patients by family physicians. We find that when in FHTs, physicians increase the production of total services and non-incentivized services by 26% and 5% per annum and reduce capitated comprehensive care services by 3.2% per annum. When in FHTs, physicians also see and enroll more patients relative to those practicing in non-FHTs. We find evidence of improved access to physician's services under team-based primary care, but switching to FHTs has no effect on the production of after-hours services and services provided to non-enrolled patients.

Introduction: Patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP) have pathologically confirmed metastatic tumours with unidentifiable primary tumours. Currently, very little is known about the relationship between the treatment of patients with CUP and their survival outcomes. Thus, we compared oncologic treatment and survival outcomes for patients in Ontario with CUP against those for a cohort of patients with metastatic cancer of known primary site. Methods: Using the Ontario Cancer Registry and the Same-Day Surgery and Discharge Abstract databases maintained by the Canadian Institute for Health Information, we identified all Ontario patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. Ontario Health Insurance Plan treatment records were linked to identify codes for surgery, chemotherapy, or therapeutic radiation related to oncology. Multivariable Cox regression models were constructed, adjusting for histology, age, sex, and comorbidities. Results: In 45,347 patients (96.3%), the primary tumour site was identifiable, and in 1743 patients (3.7%), CUP was diagnosed. Among the main tumour sites, CUP ranked as the 6th largest. The mean Charlson score was significantly higher (p < 0.0001) in patients with CUP (1.88) than in those with a known primary (1.42). Overall median survival was 1.9 months for patients with CUP compared with 11.9 months for all patients with a known-primary cancer. Receipt of treatment was more likely for patients with a known primary site (n = 35,012, 77.2%) than for those with CUP (n = 891, 51.1%). Among patients with a known primary site, median survival was significantly higher for treated than for untreated patients (19.0 months vs. 2.2 months, p < 0.0001). Among patients with CUP, median survival was also higher for treated than for untreated patients (3.6 months vs. 1.1 months, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: In Ontario, patients with CUP experience significantly lower survival than do patients with metastatic cancer of a known primary site. Treatment is associated with significantly increased survival both for patients with CUP and for those with metastatic cancer of a known primary site.

Access to after-hours primary care is problematic in many developed countries, leading patients to instead visit the emergency department for non-urgent conditions. However, emergency department utilization for conditions treatable in primary care settings may contribute to emergency department overcrowding and increased health system costs. This systematic review examines the impact of various initiatives by developed countries to improve access to after-hours primary care on emergency department and primary care utilization. We performed a systematic review on the impact of improved access to after-hours primary and searched CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and Scopus. We identified 20 studies that examined the impact of improved access to after-hours primary care on ED utilization and 6 studies that examined the impact on primary care utilization. Improved access to after-hours primary care was associated with increased primary care utilization, but had a mixed effect on emergency department utilization, with limited evidence of a reduction in non-urgent and semi-urgent emergency department visits. Although our review suggests that improved access to after-hours primary care may limit emergency department utilization by shifting patient care from the emergency department back to primary care, rigorous research in a given institutional context is required before introducing any initiative to improve access to after-hours primary care.

Purpose Several genomic tests have recently been developed to identify the primary tumour in cancer of unknown primary tumour (CUP). However, the value of identifying the primary tumour in clinical practice for CUP patients remains questionable and difficult to prove in randomized trials. Objective We aimed to assess the clinical and economic value of primary tumour identification in CUP using a retrospective matched cohort study. Methods We used the Manitoba Cancer Registry to identify all patients initially diagnosed with metastatic cancer between 2002 and 2011. We defined patients as having CUP if their primary tumour was found 6 months or more after initial diagnosis or never found during the course of disease. Otherwise, we considered patients to have metastatic cancer from a known primary tumour (CKP). We linked all patients with Manitoba Health databases to estimate their direct healthcare costs using a phase-of-care approach. We used the propensity score matching technique to match each CUP patient with a CKP patient on clinicopathologic characteristics. We compared treatment patterns, overall survival (OS) and phase-specific healthcare costs between the two patient groups and assessed association with OS using Cox regression adjustment. Results Of 5839 patients diagnosed with metastatic cancer, 395 had CUP (6.8%); 1:1 matching created a matched group of 395 CKP patients. CUP patients were less likely to receive surgery, radiation, hormonal and targeted therapy and more likely to receive cytotoxic empiric chemotherapeutic agents. Having CUP was associated with reduced OS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31; 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.58), but this lost statistical significance with adjustment for treatment differences. CUP patients had a significant increase in the mean net cost of initial diagnostic workup before diagnosis and a significant reduction in the mean net cost of continuing cancer care. Conclusion Identifying the primary tumour in CUP patients might enable the use of more effective therapies, improve OS and allow more efficient allocation of healthcare resources. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s41669-017-0051-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background and Aims Supervised injection facilities (legally sanctioned spaces for supervised consumption of illicitly obtained drugs) are controversial public health interventions. We determined the optimal number of facilities in two Canadian cities using health economic methods. Design Dynamic compartmental model of HIV and hepatitis C transmission through sexual contact and sharing of drug use equipment. Setting Toronto and Ottawa, Canada. Participants Simulated population of each city. Interventions Zero to five supervised injection facilities. Measurements Direct health-care costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over 20 years, discounted at 5% per year; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Findings In Toronto, one facility cost $4.1 million and resulted in a gain of 385 QALYs over 20 years, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $10 763 per QALY [95% credible interval (95CrI): cost-saving to $278 311]. Establishing one facility in Ottawa had an ICER of $6127 per QALY (95CrI: cost-saving to $179 272). At a $50 000 per QALY threshold, three facilities would be cost-effective in Toronto and two in Ottawa. The probability that establishing three, four, or five facilities in Toronto was cost-effective was 17, 21, and 41%, respectively. Establishing one, two, or three facilities in Ottawa was cost-effective with 13, 35, and 41% probability, respectively. Establishing no facility was unlikely to be the most cost-effective option (14% in Toronto and 10% in Ottawa). In both cities, results were robust if the reduction in needle-sharing among clients of the facilities was at least 50% and fixed operating costs were less than $2.0 million. Conclusions Using a $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-years threshold for cost-effectiveness, it is likely to be cost-effective to establish at least three legally sanctioned spaces for supervised injection of illicitly obtained drugs in Toronto, Canada and two in Ottawa, Canada.

Background and Aims Screening and brief intervention (SBI) is a public health intervention that has been shown to be effective in reducing heavy alcohol consumption. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of implementing universal alcohol SBI in primary care in Canada. Design We developed a microsimulation model of alcohol consumption and its effects on 18 alcohol-related causes of death. Setting The model simulates a Canadian population. Participants The model simulates individuals and their alcohol consumption on a continuous scale starting from age 17 years to death. Interventions The reference case assumes no SBI in Canada. The base case assumes screening was conducted using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) at a threshold score of 8. Additional analyses included evaluating SBI using the AUDIT at threshold scores between 4 and 8 or the Derived Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) at threshold scores between 3 and 7. Measurements The model estimates the direct health-care costs, life years gained and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained, which are then used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SBI versus no SBI. Findings SBI with AUDIT (at a threshold score of 8) had an ICER of $8729/QALY. Our results suggest that using AUDIT thresholds between 8 and 4, inclusive, would be cost-effective for the whole population, as well as for men and women individually. Our results suggest that the AUDIT-C would be cost-effective at thresholds of 7 to 3, inclusive, for men, women and the whole population. Conclusions In Canada, screening and brief intervention via Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and Derived Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) to reduce heavy alcohol consumption appears to be cost-effective for men and women at Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) thresholds of 8 and lower and at Derived Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) thresholds of 7 and lower.

In this study, we examine performance-based payment contracts to promote the optimal use of an optional diagnostic test for newly diagnosed cancer patients. Our work is inspired by three trends: tremendous increases in the cost of new, advanced cancer drugs; development of new diagnostic tests to allow physicians to tailor treatment to patients; and changes in healthcare funding models that reward quality care. We model the interaction between two parties—a healthcare payer and an oncologist, in which the oncologist has private information about patients’ characteristics (adverse selection) and the payer does not know whether the oncologist takes the optimal course of action (moral hazard). We show that, in the presence of information asymmetry, a healthcare payer should never incentivize an oncologist to use a diagnostic test for all patients, even if the diagnostic test is available for free. Moreover, although the oncologist has additional information about a patient's risk, he cannot always benefit from this private information. We also find that social welfare may not increase as a result of a decrease in the oncologist's concerns regarding the health outcome of patients. Finally, we show that it is not always socially optimal to make a diagnostic test compulsory even if such a policy can be implemented for free.