1. Real options for risk management in petroleum development investments
- Author
-
S. Shokhor and L.G. Chorn
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,Decision support system ,Operations research ,business.industry ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,Capital budgeting ,Dynamic programming ,General Energy ,Investment decisions ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Bellman equation ,Economics ,Real options valuation ,business ,Risk management - Abstract
Irreversible investments made with incomplete information are the mainstay of the petroleum industry. Sequential, non-repetitive investment decisions with alternative pathways associated with exploration through full-field development are common. We demonstrate a policy development approach that combines the Bellman equation for dynamic programming with a real options valuation algorithm. This represents the first demonstration of the mathematical union of the two techniques for branching decision pathways, producing a generalized policy development framework that provides risk management of investments. Production expansion investment decisions for a Central Asian gas condensate field are analyzed using the framework.
- Published
- 2006