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Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.

Aims: Slow decomposition and isolation from groundwater mean that ombrotrophic peatlands store a large amount of soil carbon (C) but have low availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). To better understand the role these limiting nutrients play in determining the C balance of peatland ecosystems, we compile comprehensive N and P budgets for a forested bog in northern Minnesota, USA., Methods: N and P within plants, soils, and water are quantified based on field measurements. The resulting empirical dataset are then compared to modern-day, site-level simulations from the peatland land surface version of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM-SPRUCE)., Results: Our results reveal N is accumulating in the ecosystem at 0.2 ± 0.1 g N m -2 year -1 but annual P inputs to this ecosystem are balanced by losses. Biomass stoichiometry indicates that plant functional types differ in N versus P limitation, with trees exhibiting a stronger N limitation than ericaceous shrubs or Sphagnum moss. High biomass and productivity of Sphagnum results in the moss layer storing and cycling a large proportion of plant N and P. Comparing our empirically-derived nutrient budgets to ELM-SPRUCE shows the model captures N cycling within dominant plant functional types well., Conclusions: The nutrient budgets and stoichiometry presented serve as a baseline for quantifying the nutrient cycling response of peatland ecosystems to both observed and simulated climate change. Our analysis improves our understanding of N and P dynamics within nutrient-limited peatlands and represents a crucial step toward improving C-cycle projections into the twenty-first century., Competing Interests: Conflict of interests The authors have no conflict of interest.

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

We initiated a multi-factor global change experiment to explore the effects of infrared heat loading (HT) and water table level (WL) treatment on soil temperature (T) in bog and fen peatland mesocosms. We found that the temperature varied highly by year, month, peatland type, soil depth, HT and WL manipulations. The highest effect of HT on the temperature at 25 cm depth was found in June for the bog mesocosms (3.34-4.27 degrees C) but in May for the fen mesocosms (2.32-4.33 degrees C) over the 2-year study period. The effects of WL in the bog mesocosms were only found between August and January, with the wet mesocosms warmer than the dry mesocosms by 0.48-2.03 degrees C over the 2-year study period. In contrast, wetter fen mesocosms were generally cooler by 0.16-3.87 degrees C. Seasonal changes of temperatures elevated by the HT also varied by depth and ecosystem type, with temperature differences at 5 cm and 10 cm depth showing smaller seasonal fluctuations than those at 25 cm and 40 cm in the bog mesocosms. However, increased HT did not always lead to warmer soil, especially in the fen mesocosms. Both HT and WL manipulations have also changed the length of the non-frozen season.

Although observational data and experiments suggest that carbon flux and storage in peatlands are controlled by hydrology and/or nutrient availability, we lack a rigorous theory to account for the roles that different plant species or life-forms, particularly mosses, play in carbon and nutrient flux and storage and how they interact with different hydrologic sources of nutrients. We construct and analyze a model of peatlands that sheds some light on this problem. The model is a set of six coupled differential equations that define the flow of nutrients from moss and vascular plants to their litters, then to peat, and finally to an inorganic nutrient resource pool. We first analyze a simple version of this model (model 1) in which all nutrient input is from precipitation and enters the moss compartment directly, mimicking the dynamics of ombrotrophic bogs. There is a transcritical bifurcation that results in a switch of stability between two equilibrium bog communities: a moss monoculture and a community where mosses and vascular plants coexist. The bifurcation depends on the magnitudes of the input/output budget of the peatland and the life-history traits of the plants. We generalize model 1 to model 2 by dividing nutrient inputs between precipitation and groundwater, thus also allowing the development of minerotrophic fens that receive nutrient subsidies from both groundwater and precipitation and adding intraspecific competition (self-limitation) terms for both moss and vascular plants. Partitioning precipitation inputs between moss and the nutrient pool resulted in the greatest changes in model behavior, including the appearance of a lake and a vascular plant monoculture as well as the moss monoculture and coexistence equilibrium. As with model 1, these solutions are separated by transcritical bifurcations depending on critical combinations of parameters determining the input-output budget of the peatland as well as the life-history characteristics of the plant species. Model 2 also allowed for an early transient spike in vascular plant dominance followed by approach to near moss monoculture and then eventual approach to coexistence equilibrium. This generalized model mimics the broad features of successional development of peatlands from fens to bogs often found in the paleorecords of peat cores.