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Background: Emergency room nurse triage entails complex clinical decision making under stress and time constraints. Workplace distractors, such as noise and task interruptions, have been pointed to as possible reasons for triage inaccuracy, though studies have not borne this out. To train nurses to perform the task, a serious game was developed to simulate the triage process and environment. A pilot study was undertaken to evaluate the acceptability and feasibility of the serious game and to collect preliminary data on the effects of two distractors—noise and task interruptions—on emergency room nurse triage accuracy. Methods: A 2 × 2 factorial randomized controlled trial was designed for the study. A sample of 70 emergency room nurses was randomly assigned to four groups: three experimental groups exposed to different distractors (noise, task interruptions, and both) and one control group exposed to none. The nurses in each group had two hours to complete a series of 20 clinical vignettes where they had to establish a chief complaint and assign an emergency level. Their responses were then compared against a gold standard predetermined by experts. Results: Among 70, 55 nurses completed about 15 vignettes each in the allotted time. No inter-group differences emerged in terms of triage performance. Only a few minor technical issues arose during the sessions. Nurses had a very favorable appreciation of the serious game on triage as measured through a semantic differential scale. Conclusions: Results show that both the structure of our study and the serious game on triage can be used to carry out a future RCT on a larger scale. Two minor technical bugs were identified and corrected, the series of vignettes to complete in two hours must be shortened to 15, and the test should be held during work hours to support recruitment and reduce the possible impact of nurse fatigue on triage performance. The absence of a distractor effect raises questions about whether distractors have an effect and at what frequency and intensity of noise and task interruptions might have an impact on triage performance and whether this dose is realistic.

Background Population ageing and increased prevalence of chronic diseases result in the emergence of new demands in prehospital care. The prehospital system is facing an increase of cases without acute threat to life (so-called “non-urgent”), which generates tension due to a higher number of admissions to emergency departments and a greater use of prehospital resources. Our aim is to understand this transition in prehospital activities and to delineate the primary missions performed by paramedics in 2018 with a focus on the population concerned, the severity of cases encountered and the typology of health issues. Method The study is retrospective, and descriptive, using a statistical description of 35,188 primary missions realized in 2018 in the State of Vaud (Switzerland). The characteristics taken into consideration are the age and gender of patients, as well as the health issue, the severity of cases based on National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics score (NACA score), and the time and place of intervention. Results The results describe the primary missions in the State of Vaud in 2018 and show that 87% of missions concern “non-urgent” situations (without acute threat to life). Over half of patients are 65 or older, the highest proportion of health issues, 49%, are medical and only 23% of missions are for traumas. Mission related to mental health issues reach 7% and those for intoxication 6%. Most missions take place between 7:00 am and 6:00 pm (67%), and around 12% of missions lead to the non-transport of the patient. Conclusion The prehospital sector is confronted with a major transition in terms of patient care. An increase of non-urgent cases is observed, associated with the care of persons aged 65 or more. Our results question the adequacy between the needs in terms of prehospital care and the paramedic profession as it is currently defined, as well as the place of this profession within the health network. Reflecting upon the role of paramedics with respect to the socio-demographic evolution of populations appears necessary, to analyse the adequacy of the paramedics’ skills to respond to the current needs.

The tick Ixodes ricinus is the vector of various pathogens, including Chlamydiales bacteria, which potentially cause respiratory infections. In this study, we modeled the spatial distribution of I. ricinus and associated Chlamydiales over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019. We used a total of 2,293 ticks and 186 Chlamydiales occurrences provided by a Swiss Army field campaign, a collaborative smartphone application, and a prospective campaign. For each tick location, we retrieved from Swiss federal data sets the environmental factors reflecting the topography, climate, and land cover. We then used the Maxent modeling technique to estimate the suitability of particular areas for I. ricinus and to subsequently build the nested niche of Chlamydiales bacteria. Results indicate that I. ricinus habitat suitability is determined by higher temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, lower temperature during the driest months, and a higher percentage of artificial and forest areas. The performance of the model was improved when extracting the environmental variables for a 100-m radius buffer around the sampling points and when considering the climatic conditions of the 2 years previous to the sampling date. Chlamydiales bacteria were favored by a lower percentage of artificial surfaces, drier conditions, high precipitation during the coldest months, and short distances to wetlands. From 2009 to 2018, we observed an extension of areas suitable to ticks and Chlamydiales, associated with a shift toward higher altitude. The importance of considering spatiotemporal variations in the environmental conditions for obtaining better prediction was also demonstrated., IMPORTANCE Ixodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick-borne encephalitis virus, and the less well-known Chlamydiales bacteria, which are responsible for certain respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results also provided the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable information for decision makers in controlling tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establishing prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen pairs to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly.

Background The clinical decisions of emergency department triage nurses need to be of the highest accuracy. However, studies have found repeatedly that these nurses over- or underestimate the severity of patient health conditions. This has major consequences for patient safety and patient flow management. Workplace distractors such as noise and task interruptions have been pointed to as factors that might explain this inaccuracy. The use of a serious game reproducing the work environment during triage affords the opportunity to explore the impact of these distractors on nurse emergency triage accuracy, in a safe setting. Methods/design A pilot study with a factorial design will be carried out to test the acceptability and feasibility of a serious game developed specifically to simulate the triage process in emergency departments and to explore the primary effects of distractors on nurse emergency triage accuracy. Eighty emergency nurses will be randomized into four groups: three groups exposed to different distractors (A, noise; B, task interruptions; C, noise and task interruptions) and one control group. All nurses will have to complete 20 clinical vignettes within 2 h. For each vignette, a gold standard assessment will be determined by experts. Pre-tests will be conducted with clinicians and certified emergency nurses to evaluate the appeal of the serious game. Discussion Study results will inform the design of large-scale investigations and will help identify teaching, training, and research areas that require further development.

The tick Ixodes ricinus is the vector of various pathogens, including Chlamydiales bacteria, potentially causing respiratory infections. In this study, we modelled the spatial distribution of I. ricinus and associated Chlamydiales over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019. We used a total of 2293 ticks and 186 Chlamydiales occurrences provided by a Swiss Army field campaign, a collaborative smartphone application and a prospective campaign. For each tick location, we retrieved from Swiss federal datasets the environmental factors reflecting the topography, climate and land cover. We then used the Maxent modelling technique to estimate the suitability for I. ricinus and to subsequently build the nested niche of Chlamydiales bacteria. Results indicate that I. ricinus high habitat suitability is determined by higher temperature and vegetation index (NDVI) values, lower temperature during driest months and a higher percentage of artificial and forests areas. The performance of the model was increased when extracting the environmental variables for a 100 m-radius buffer around the sampling points and when considering the data over the two years previous sampling date. For Chlamydiales bacteria, the suitability was favoured by lower percentage of artificial surfaces, driest conditions, high precipitation during coldest months and short distances to wetlands. From 2009 to 2018, we observed an extension of tick and Chlamydiales suitable areas, associated with a shift towards higher altitude. The importance to consider spatio-temporal variations of the environmental conditions for obtaining better prediction was also demonstrated.ImportanceIxodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens, including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick borne encephalitis virus and the less known Chlamydiales bacteria at the origin of some respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results provided also the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable informations for decision-makers to control tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establish prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen couples, to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly.

Ixodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick-borne encephalitis virus, and the less well-known Chlamydiales bacteria, which are responsible for certain respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results also provided the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable information for decision makers in controlling tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establishing prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen pairs to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly., The tick Ixodes ricinus is the vector of various pathogens, including Chlamydiales bacteria, which potentially cause respiratory infections. In this study, we modeled the spatial distribution of I. ricinus and associated Chlamydiales over Switzerland from 2009 to 2019. We used a total of 2,293 ticks and 186 Chlamydiales occurrences provided by a Swiss Army field campaign, a collaborative smartphone application, and a prospective campaign. For each tick location, we retrieved from Swiss federal data sets the environmental factors reflecting the topography, climate, and land cover. We then used the Maxent modeling technique to estimate the suitability of particular areas for I. ricinus and to subsequently build the nested niche of Chlamydiales bacteria. Results indicate that I. ricinus habitat suitability is determined by higher temperature and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values, lower temperature during the driest months, and a higher percentage of artificial and forest areas. The performance of the model was improved when extracting the environmental variables for a 100-m radius buffer around the sampling points and when considering the climatic conditions of the 2 years previous to the sampling date. Chlamydiales bacteria were favored by a lower percentage of artificial surfaces, drier conditions, high precipitation during the coldest months, and short distances to wetlands. From 2009 to 2018, we observed an extension of areas suitable to ticks and Chlamydiales, associated with a shift toward higher altitude. The importance of considering spatiotemporal variations in the environmental conditions for obtaining better prediction was also demonstrated. IMPORTANCE Ixodes ricinus is the vector of pathogens including the agent of Lyme disease, the tick-borne encephalitis virus, and the less well-known Chlamydiales bacteria, which are responsible for certain respiratory infections. In this study, we identified the environmental factors influencing the presence of I. ricinus and Chlamydiales in Switzerland and generated maps of their distribution from 2009 to 2018. We found an important expansion of suitable areas for both the tick and the bacteria during the last decade. Results also provided the environmental factors that determine the presence of Chlamydiales within ticks. Distribution maps as generated here are expected to bring valuable information for decision makers in controlling tick-borne diseases in Switzerland and establishing prevention campaigns. The methodological framework presented could be used to predict the distribution and spread of other host-pathogen pairs to identify environmental factors driving their distribution and to develop control or prevention strategies accordingly.

At patient intake in emergency departments, triage is a key step in ensuring optimal patient care and good use of hospital resources. Triage nurses must be able to make correct clinical judgements and triage decisions despite extremely stressful working conditions including noise and task interruptions. This article presents a new serious game designed to closely reproduce the conditions of a typical emergency department. Its purpose is to provide a generic testbed both for teaching and for research, notably in order to enable studying the impact of stressors on the quality of decisions made. A study involving 49 professional triage nurses shows that, despite its relatively modest technological requirements, this serious game is considered by the participants as highly attractive and very close to their professional experience.

The rate of aquatic invasions by planktonic organisms has increased considerably in recent decades. In order to effectively direct funding and resources to control the spread of such invasions, a methodological framework for identifying high-risk transport vectors, as well as ruling out vectors of lesser concern will be necessary. A number of estuarine ecosystems on the North American Pacific Northwest coast have experienced a series of high impact planktonic invasions that have slowly unfolded across the region in recent decades, most notably, that of the planktonic copepod crustacean Pseudodiaptomus inopinus. Although introduction of P. inopinus to the United States almost certainly occurred through the discharge of ballast water from commercial vessels originating in Asia (the species’ native range), the mechanisms and patterns of subsequent spread remain unknown. In order to elucidate the migration events shaping this invasion, we sampled the genomes of copepods from seven invasive and two native populations using restriction-site associated DNA sequencing. This genetic data was evaluated against spatially-explicit genetic simulation models to evaluate competing scenarios of invasion spread. Our results indicate that invasive populations of P. inopinus exhibit a geographically unstructured genetic composition, likely arising from infrequent and large migration events. This pattern of genetic patchiness was unexpected given the linear geographic structure of the sampled populations, and strongly contrasts with the clear invasion corridors observed in many aquatic systems.

To understand the geographical and temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 during the first documented wave of infection in the state of Vaud, Switzerland, we analyzed clusters of positive cases using the precise residential location of 33,651 individuals tested (RT-PCR) between January 10 and June 30, 2020. We used a prospective Poisson space-time scan statistic (SaTScan) and a Modified Space–Time Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (MST-DBSCAN) to identify both space-time and transmission clusters, and estimated cluster duration, transmission behavior (emergence, growth, reduction, etc.) and relative risk. For each cluster, we computed the number of individuals, the median age of individuals and their viral load. Among the 1684 space-time clusters identified, 457 (27.1%) were significant (p ≤ 0.05), such that they harbored a higher relative risk of infection within the cluster than compared to regions outside the cluster. Clusters lasted a median of 11 days (IQR 7–13) and included a median of 12 individuals per cluster (IQR 5–20). The majority of significant clusters (n = 260; 56.9%) had at least one person with an extremely high viral load (>1 billion copies/ml). Those clusters were considerably larger (median of 17 infected individuals, p < 0.001) than clusters with individuals showing a viral load below 1 million copies/ml (median of three infected individuals). The highest viral loads were found in clusters with the lowest average age group considered in the investigation, while clusters with the highest average age had low to middle viral load. In 20 significant clusters, the viral load of the three first cases was below 100,000 copies/ml, suggesting that subjects with fewer than 100,000 copies/ml may still be contagious. Notably, the dynamics of transmission clusters made it possible to identify three diffusion zones, which predominantly differentiated between rural and urban areas, the latter being more prone to persistence and expansion, which may result in the emergence of new clusters nearby. The use of geographic information is key for public health decision makers in mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study suggests that early localization of clusters may help implement targeted protective measures limiting the spread of the virus., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image

International audience; Forecasting the colonization process is important for wildlife managers who supervise the reintroduction of endangered species or control the spread of invasive species. Patch connectivity is thus critical to predicting the fates of expanding populations. Connectivity in river networks results from river dendritic structure and dispersal modality of organisms. Both factors may strongly affect the colonization process and the efficiency of conservation action plans. Based on empirical data, we simulated, using a simplified model with limited number of parameters, the colonization of a large river network, the Loire River, by the native Eurasian beaver and the invasive African clawed frog. For each species, we inferred model parameters (dispersal behavior and distances) by comparing the simulated and the observed distributions. Using network theory, we evaluated the efficiency of alternative conservation strategies to prevent or promote colonization of the river network. Network robustness to fragmentation and disturbance was also assessed. The model accurately predicted > 70% of the observed species ranges. Conservation strategies that selectively protect habitat patches with the highest connectivity values provide a weak advantage at preventing connectivity loss compared to random protection strategies. In contrast, the targeted destruction of highly connected patches had a much stronger effect on the fragmentation of the network than the random removal of habitat patches. Spatial network topology strongly contributes to determining colonization patterns of large river watersheds. Network theory allows tests for robustness of rivers to fragmentation and disturbance, and identification of strategies for conservation planning.

Ease of worldwide travel provides increased opportunities for organisms not only to colonize new environments but also to encounter related but diverged populations. Such events of reconnection and secondary contact of previously isolated populations are widely observed at different time scales. For example, during the quaternary glaciation, sea water level fluctuations caused temporal isolation of populations, often to be followed by secondary contact. At shorter time scales, population isolation and reconnection of viruses are commonly observed, and such events are often associated with epidemics and pandemics. Here, using coalescent theory and simulations, we describe the temporal impact of population reconnection after isolation on nucleotide differences and the site frequency spectrum, as well as common summary statistics of DNA variation. We identify robust genomic signatures of population reconnection after isolation. We utilize our development to infer the recent evolutionary history of human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) in Asia and South America, successfully retrieving the successive HIV subtype colonization events in these regions. Our analysis reveals that divergent HIV-1 subtype populations are currently admixing in these regions, suggesting that HIV-1 may be undergoing a process of homogenization, contrary to popular belief.

Occurrence of bacteria belonging to the order Chlamydiales was investigated for the first time in common toad (Bufo bufo) tadpole populations collected from 41 ponds in the Geneva metropolitan area, Switzerland. A Chlamydiales-specific Real-Time PCR was used to detect and amplify the Chlamydiales 16S rRNA-encoding gene from the tails of 375 tadpoles. We found the studied amphibian populations to be infected by “Chlamydia-like organisms” (CLOs) attributable to the genera Similichlamydia, Neochlamydia, Protochlamydia and Parachlamydia (belonging to the family Parachlamydiaceae), Simkania (family Simkaniaceae) and Estrella (family Criblamydiaceae); additionally, DNA from the genus Thermoanaerobacter (family Thermoanaerobacteriaceae) was detected. A global autocorrelation analysis did not reveal a spatial structure in the observed CLOs infection rates, and association tests involving land cover characteristics did not evidence any clear effect on CLOs infection rates in B. bufo. Despite preliminary, these results suggest a random and ubiquitous distribution of CLOs in the environment, which would support the biogeographical expectation “everything is everywhere” for the concerned microorganisms and their amoeba vectors.

Purpose of review: An improved understanding of how recombination affects the evolutionary history of HIV is crucial to understand its current and future evolution. The present review aims to disentangle the manifold effects of recombination on HIV by discussing its effects on the evolutionary history and the adaptive potential of HIV in the context of concepts from evolutionary genetics and genomics. Recent findings: The increasing occurrence of secondary contacts between divergent subtype populations (during coinfection) results in increased observations of recombinants worldwide. Recombination is heterogeneous along the HIV genome. Consequences of recombination of HIV evolution are, in combination with other demographic processes, expected to either homogenize the genetic composition of HIV populations (homogenization) or provide the potential for novel adaptations (diversification). New methods in population genomics allow deep characterization of recombinant genome (the segment composition and origin) and their evolutionary trajectories. Summary: HIV recombinants increase worldwide and invade geographical regions where pure subtypes were previously predominant. This trend is expected to continue in the future, as ease to travel worldwide increases opportunities for recombination between divergent HIV strains. While the effects of recombination in HIV are much researched, more effort is required to characterize current HIV recombinant composition and dynamics. This can be achieved with new population genetic and genomic methods

A workshop recently held at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL, Switzerland) was dedicated to understanding the genetic basis of adaptive change, taking stock of the different approaches developed in theoretical population genetics and landscape genomics and bringing together knowledge accumulated in both research fields. Indeed, an important challenge in theoretical population genetics is to incorporate effects of demographic history and population structure. But important design problems (e.g. focus on populations as units, focus on hard selective sweeps, no hypothesis-based framework in the design of the statistical tests) reduce their capability of detecting adaptive genetic variation. In parallel, landscape genomics offers a solution to several of these problems and provides a number of advantages (e.g. fast computation, landscape heterogeneity integration). But the approach makes several implicit assumptions that should be carefully considered (e.g. selection has had enough time to create a functional relationship between the allele distribution and the environmental variable, or this functional relationship is assumed to be constant). To address the respective strengths and weaknesses mentioned above, the workshop brought together a panel of experts from both disciplines to present their work and discuss the relevance of combining these approaches, possibly resulting in a joint software solution in the future.

Many features of virus populations make them excellent candidates for population genetic study, including a very high rate of mutation, high levels of nucleotide diversity, exceptionally large census population sizes, and frequent positive selection. However, these attributes also mean that special care must be taken in population genetic inference. For example, highly skewed offspring distributions, frequent and severe population bottleneck events associated with infection and compartmentalization, and strong purifying selection all affect the distribution of genetic variation but are often not taken into account. Here, we draw particular attention to multiple-merger coalescent events and background selection, discuss potential misinference associated with these processes, and highlight potential avenues for better incorporating them into future population genetic analyses.

Many features of virus populations make them excellent candidates for population genetic study, including a very high rate of mutation, high levels of nucleotide diversity, exceptionally large census population sizes, and frequent positive selection. However, these attributes also mean that special care must be taken in population genetic inference. For example, highly skewed offspring distributions, frequent and severe population bottleneck events associated with infection and compartmentalization, and strong purifying selection all affect the distribution of genetic variation but are often not taken in to account. Here, we draw particular attention to multiple-merger coalescent events and background selection, discuss potential mis-inference associated with these processes, and highlight potential avenues for better incorporating them in to future population genetic analyses.

Self-incompatibility (SI), a reproductive system broadly present in plants, chordates, fungi, and protists, might be controlled by one or several multiallelic loci. How a transition in the number of SI loci can occur and the consequences of such events for the population's genetics and dynamics have not been studied theoretically. Here, we provide analytical descriptions of two transition mechanisms: linkage of the two SI loci (scenario 1) and the loss of function of one incompatibility gene within a mating type of a population with two SI loci (scenario 2). We show that invasion of populations by the new mating type form depends on whether the fitness of the new type is lowered, and on the allelic diversity of the SI loci and the recombination between the two SI loci in the starting population. Moreover, under scenario 1, it also depends on the frequency of the SI alleles that became linked. We demonstrate that, following invasion, complete transitions in the reproductive system occurs under scenario 2 and is predicted only for small populations under scenario 1. Interestingly, such events are associated with a drastic reduction in mating type number.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding how new phenotypes evolve is challenging because intermediate stages in transitions from ancestral to derived phenotypes often remain elusive. Here we describe and evaluate a new mechanism facilitating the transition from sexual reproduction to parthenogenesis. In many sexually reproducing species, a small proportion of unfertilized eggs can hatch spontaneously (‘tychoparthenogenesis’) and develop into females. Using an analytical model, we show that if females are mate-limited, tychoparthenogenesis can result in the loss of males through a positive feedback mechanism whereby tychoparthenogenesis generates female-biased sex ratios and increasing mate limitation. As a result, the strength of selection for tychoparthenogenesis increases in concert with the proportion of tychoparthenogenetic offspring in the sexual population. We then tested the hypothesis that mate limitation selects for tychoparthenogenesis and generates female-biased sex ratios, using data from natural populations of sexually reproducingTimemastick insects. Across 41 populations, both the tychoparthenogenesis rates and the proportions of females increased exponentially as the density of individuals decreased, consistent with the idea that low densities of individuals result in mate limitation and selection for reproductive insurance through tychoparthenogenesis. Our model and data fromTimemapopulations provide evidence for a simple mechanism through which parthenogenesis can evolve rapidly in a sexual population.

Disturbances affect metapopulations directly through reductions in population size and indirectly through habitat modification. We consider how metapopulation persistence is affected by different disturbance regimes and the way in which disturbances spread, when metapopulations are compact or elongated, using a stochastic spatially explicit model which includes metapopulation and habitat dynamics. We discover that the risk of population extinction is larger for spatially aggregated disturbances than for spatially random disturbances. By changing the spatial configuration of the patches in the system--leading to different proportions of edge and interior patches--we demonstrate that the probability of metapopulation extinction is smaller when the metapopulation is more compact. Both of these results become more pronounced when colonization connectivity decreases. Our results have important management implication as edge patches, which are invariably considered to be less important, may play an important role as disturbance refugia.

International audience; We simulated a meta-population with random dispersal among demes but local mating within demes to investigate conditions under which a dominant female-determining gene W, with no individual selection advantage, can invade and become fixed in females, changing the population from male to female heterogamety. Starting with one mutant W in a single deme, the interaction of sex ratio selection and random genetic drift causes W to be fixed among females more often than a comparable neutral mutation with no influence on sex determination, even when YY males have slightly reduced viability. Meta-population structure and interdeme selection can also favour the fixation of W. The reverse transition from female to male heterogamety can also occur with higher probability than for a comparable neutral mutation. These results help to explain the involvement of sex-determining genes in the evolution of sex chromosomes and in sexual selection and speciation.

Connectivity among demes in a metapopulation depends on both the landscape's and the focal organism's properties (including its mobility and cognitive abilities). Using individual-based simulations, we contrast the consequences of three different cognitive strategies on several measures of metapopulation connectivity. Model animals search suitable habitat patches while dispersing through a model landscape made of cells varying in size, shape, attractiveness and friction. In the blind strategy, the next cell is chosen randomly among the adjacent ones. In the near-sighted strategy, the choice depends on the relative attractiveness of these adjacent cells. In the far-sighted strategy, animals may additionally target suitable patches that appear within their perceptual range. Simulations show that the blind strategy provides the best overall connectivity, and results in balanced dispersal. The near-sighted strategy traps animals into corridors that reduce the number of potential targets, thereby fragmenting metapopulations in several local clusters of demes, and inducing sink-source dynamics. This sort of local trapping is somewhat prevented in the far-sighted strategy. The colonization success of strategies depends highly on initial energy reserves: blind does best when energy is high, near-sighted wins at intermediate levels, and far-sighted outcompetes its rivals at low energy reserves. We also expect strong effects in terms of metapopulation genetics: the blind strategy generates a migrant-pool mode of dispersal that should erase local structures. By contrast, near- and far-sighted strategies generate a propagule-pool mode of dispersal and source-sink behavior that should boost structures (high genetic variance among- and low variance within local clusters of demes), particularly if metapopulation dynamics is also affected by extinction-colonization processes. Our results thus point to important effects of the cognitive ability of dispersers on the connectivity, dynamics and genetics of metapopulations.

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Major climatic and geological events but also population history (secondary contacts) have generated cycles of population isolation and connection of long and short periods. Recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that fast evolutionary processes might be triggered by such events, as commonly illustrated in ecology by the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes (isolation and reconnection of lakes and watersheds) and in epidemiology by the fast adaptation of the influenza virus (isolation and reconnection in hosts). We test whether cyclic population isolation and connection provide the raw material (standing genetic variation) for species evolution and diversification. Our analytical results demonstrate that population isolation and connection can provide, to populations, a high excess of genetic diversity compared with what is expected at equilibrium. This excess is either cyclic (high allele turnover) or cumulates with time depending on the duration of the isolation and the connection periods and the mutation rate. We show that diversification rates of animal clades are associated with specific periods of climatic cycles in the Quaternary. We finally discuss the importance of our results for macroevolutionary patterns and for the inference of population history from genomic data.

Disentangling the mechanisms mediating the coexistence of habitat specialists and generalists has been a long-standing subject of investigation. However, the roles of species traits and environmental and spatial factors have not been assessed in a unifying theoretical framework. Theory suggests that specialist species are more competitive in natural communities. However, empirical work has shown that specialist species are declining worldwide due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We addressed the question of the coexistence of specialist and generalist species with a spatially explicit metacommunity model in continuous and heterogeneous environments. We characterized how species' dispersal abilities, the number of interacting species, environmental spatial autocorrelation, and disturbance impact community composition. Our results demonstrated that species' dispersal ability and the number of interacting species had a drastic influence on the composition of metacommunities. More specialized species coexisted when species had large dispersal abilities and when the number of interacting species was high. Disturbance selected against highly specialized species, whereas environmental spatial autocorrelation had a marginal impact. Interestingly, species richness and niche breadth were mainly positively correlated at the community scale but were negatively correlated at the metacommunity scale. Numerous diversely specialized species can thus coexist, but both species' intrinsic traits and environmental factors interact to shape the specialization signatures of communities at both the local and global scales.

Population genetic differentiation characterizes the repartition of alleles among populations. It is commonly thought that genetic differentiation measures, such as G(ST) and D, should be near zero when allele frequencies are close to their expected value in panmictic populations, and close to one when they are close to their expected value in isolated populations. To analyse those properties, we first derive analytically a reference function f of known parameters that describes how important features of genetic differentiation (e.g. gene diversity, proportion of private alleles, frequency of the most common allele) are close to their expected panmictic and isolation value. We find that the behaviour of function f differs according to three distinct mutation regimes defined by the scaled mutation rate and the number of populations. Then, we compare G(ST) and D to f, and demonstrate that their signal of differentiation strongly depends on the mutation regime. In particular, we show that D captures well the variations of genetic diversity when mutation is weak, otherwise it overestimates it when panmixia is not met. G(ST) detects population differentiation when mutation is intermediate but has a low sensitivity to the variations of genetic diversity when mutation is weak. When mutation is strong the domain of sensitivity of both measures are altered. Finally, we also point out the importance of the number of populations on genetic differentiation measures, and provide recommendations for the use of G(ST) and D. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Genetic diversity is essential for population survival and adaptation to changing environments. Demographic processes (e.g., bottleneck and expansion) and spatial structure (e.g., migration, number, and size of populations) are known to shape the patterns of the genetic diversity of populations. However, the impact of temporal changes in migration on genetic diversity has seldom been considered, although such events might be the norm. Indeed, during the millions of years of a species’ lifetime, repeated isolation and reconnection of populations occur. Geological and climatic events alternately isolate and reconnect habitats. We analytically document the dynamics of genetic diversity after an abrupt change in migration given the mutation rate and the number and sizes of the populations. We demonstrate that during transient dynamics, genetic diversity can reach unexpectedly high values that can be maintained over thousands of generations. We discuss the consequences of such processes for the evolution of species based on standing genetic variation and how they can affect the reconstruction of a population’s demographic and evolutionary history from genetic data. Our results also provide guidelines for the use of genetic data for the conservation of natural populations.

International audience; Mating systems, that is, whether organisms give rise to progeny by selfing, inbreeding or outcrossing, strongly affect important ecological and evolutionary processes. Large variations in mating systems exist in fungi, allowing the study of their origin and consequences. In fungi, sexual incompatibility is determined by molecular recognition mechanisms, controlled by a single mating-type locus in most unifactorial fungi. In Basidiomycete fungi, however, which include rusts, smuts and mushrooms, a system has evolved in which incompatibility is controlled by two unlinked loci. This bifactorial system probably evolved from a unifactorial system. Multiple independent transitions back to a unifactorial system occurred. It is still unclear what force drove evolution and maintenance of these contrasting inheritance patterns that determine mating compatibility. Here, we give an overview of the evolutionary factors that might have driven the evolution of bifactoriality from a unifactorial system and the transitions back to unifactoriality. Bifactoriality most likely evolved for selfing avoidance. Subsequently, multiallelism at mating-type loci evolved through negative frequency-dependent selection by increasing the chance to find a compatible mate. Unifactoriality then evolved back in some species, possibly because either selfing was favoured or for increasing the chance to find a compatible mate in species with few alleles. Owing to the existence of closely related unifactorial and bifactorial species and the increasing knowledge of the genetic systems of the different mechanisms, Basidiomycetes provide an excellent model for studying the different forces that shape breeding systems.

The effect of heterogeneous environments upon the dynamics of invasion and the eradication or control of invasive species is poorly understood, although it is a major challenge for biodiversity conservation. Here, we first investigate how the probability and time for invasion are affected by spatial heterogeneity. Then, we study the effect of control program strategies (e.g. species specificity, spatial scale of action, detection and eradication efficiency) on the success and time of eradication. We find that heterogeneity increases both the invasion probability and the time to invasion. Heterogeneity also reduces the probability of eradication but does not change the time taken for successful eradication. We confirm that early detection of invasive species reduces the time until eradication, but we also demonstrate that this is true only if the local control action is sufficiently efficient. The criterion of removal efficiency is even more important for an eradication program than simply ensuring control effort when the invasive species is not abundant. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path.

Host shifts can cause novel infectious diseases and is a key process in diversification. Disentangling the effects of host shift versus those of cospeciation is non trivial as both can result in phylogenic congruence. We develop a new framework based on network analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation to quantify host shift and cospeciation rates in host parasite systems. Our method enables estimation of the expected time to the next host shift or cospeciation event. We then apply it to avian haemosporidian parasite systems and to the pocket gophers chewing lice system and demonstrate that both host shift and co speciation can be reliably estimated by our method. We confirm that host shifts have shaped the evolutionary history of avian haemosporidian parasites and have played a minor role in the gopher–chewing lice system. Our method is promising for predicting the rate of potential host shifts and thus the emergence of novel infectious diseases.

International audience; Over the past two decades, an increasing amount of phylogeographic work has sub- stantially improved our understanding of African biogeography, in particular the role played by Pleistocene pluvial–drought cycles on terrestrial vertebrates. However, still little is known on the evolutionary history of semi-aquatic animals, which faced tre- mendous challenges imposed by unpredictable availability of water resources. In this study, we investigate the Late Pleistocene history of the common hippopotamus (Hip- popotamus amphibius), using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence variation and range-wide sampling. We documented a global demographic and spatial expansion approximately 0.1–0.3 Myr ago, most likely associated with an episode of massive drainage overflow. These events presumably enabled a historical continent-wide gene flow among hippopotamus populations, and hence, no clear continental-scale genetic structuring remains. Nevertheless, present-day hippopotamus populations are geneti- cally disconnected, probably as a result of the mid-Holocene aridification and contem- porary anthropogenic pressures. This unique pattern contrasts with the biogeographic paradigms established for savannah-adapted ungulate mammals and should be further investigated in other water-associated taxa. Our study has important consequences for the conservation of the hippo, an emblematic but threatened species that requires specific protection to curtail its long-term decline.

Extinction, recolonization, and local adaption are common in natural spatially structured populations. Understanding their effect upon genetic variation is important for systems such as genetically modified organism management or avoidance of drug resistance. Theoretical studies on the effect of extinction and recolonization upon genetic variance started appearing in the 1970s, but the role of local adaption still has no good theoretical basis. Here we develop a model of a haploid species in a metapopulation in which a locally adapted beneficial allele is introduced. We study the effect of different spatial patterns of local adaption, and different metapopulation dynamics, upon the fixation probability of the beneficial allele. Controlling for the average selection pressure, we find that a small area of positive selection can significantly increase the global probability of fixation. However, local adaption becomes less important as extinction rate increases. Deme extinction and recolonization have a spatial smoothing effect that effectively reduces spatial variation in fitness.

Occurrence of bacteria belonging to the order Chlamydiales was investigated for the first time in common toad ( Bufo bufo ) tadpole populations collected from 41 ponds in the Geneva metropolitan area, Switzerland. A Chlamydiales -specific real-time PCR was used to detect and amplify the Chlamydiales 16S ribosomal RNA-encoding gene from the tails of 375 tadpoles. We found the studied amphibian populations to host Chlamydia -like organisms (CLOs) attributable to the genera Similichlamydia, Neochlamydia, Protochlamydia and Parachlamydia (all belonging to the family Parachlamydiaceae ), Simkania (family Simkaniaceae ) and Estrella (family Criblamydiaceae ); additionally, DNA from the genus Thermoanaerobacter (family Thermoanaerobacteriaceae ) was detected. Global autocorrelation analysis did not reveal a spatial structure in the observed CLOs occurrence rates, and association tests involving land cover characteristics did not evidence any clear effect on CLOs occurrence rates in B. bufo. Although preliminary, these results suggest a random and ubiquitous distribution of CLOs in the environment, which would support the biogeographical expectation 'everything is everywhere' for the concerned microorganisms.

Ecological strategies are integral to understanding species survival in different environments. However, how habitat specialisation is involved in such strategies is not fully understood, particularly in heterogeneous and disturbed environments. Here, we studied the trait associations between specialisation, dispersal ability, competitiveness, reproductive investment and survival rate in a spatially explicit metacommunity model under various disturbance rates. Though no unique trait values were associated with specialisation, relationships were uncovered depending on environmental factors. We found strong trait associations mainly for generalist species, while specialist species exhibited a larger range of trait combinations. Trait associations were driven first by the disturbance rate and second by species’ dispersal ability and generation overlap. With disturbance, low dispersal ability was strongly selected against, for specialists as well as for generalists. Our results demonstrate that habitat specialisation is critical for the emergence of trait strategies in metacommunities and that disturbance in interaction with dispersal ability limits not only the range of trait values but also the type of possible trait associations.

This paper presents a method based on a geographical information system (GIS) to model ecological networks in a fragmented landscape. The ecological networks are generated with the help of a landscape model (which integrate human activities) and with a wildlife dispersal model. The main results are maps which permit the analysis and the understanding of the impact of human activities on wildlife dispersal. Three applications in a study area are presented: ecological networks at the landscape scale, conflicting areas at the farmstead scale and ecological distance between biotopes. These applications show the flexibility of the model and its potential to give information on ecological networks at different planning scales. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved