1. Facility-based disease surveillance and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate endemic typhoid fever incidence, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania, 2007-2018.
- Author
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Elena R Cutting, Ryan A Simmons, Deng B Madut, Michael J Maze, Nathaniel H Kalengo, Manuela Carugati, Ronald M Mbwasi, Kajiru G Kilonzo, Furaha Lyamuya, Annette Marandu, Calvin Mosha, Wilbrod Saganda, Bingileki F Lwezaula, Julian T Hertz, Anne B Morrissey, Elizabeth L Turner, Blandina T Mmbaga, Grace D Kinabo, Venance P Maro, John A Crump, and Matthew P Rubach
- Subjects
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ,RC955-962 ,Public aspects of medicine ,RA1-1270 - Abstract
Growing evidence suggests considerable variation in endemic typhoid fever incidence at some locations over time, yet few settings have multi-year incidence estimates to inform typhoid control measures. We sought to describe a decade of typhoid fever incidence in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. Cases of blood culture confirmed typhoid were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals during three study periods: 2007-08, 2011-14, and 2016-18. To account for under-ascertainment at sentinel facilities, we derived adjustment multipliers from healthcare utilization surveys done in the hospital catchment area. Incidence estimates and credible intervals (CrI) were derived using a Bayesian hierarchical incidence model that incorporated uncertainty of our observed typhoid fever prevalence, of healthcare seeking adjustment multipliers, and of blood culture diagnostic sensitivity. Among 3,556 total participants, 50 typhoid fever cases were identified. Of typhoid cases, 26 (52%) were male and the median (range) age was 22 (
- Published
- 2022
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