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BackgroundThere is limited evidence to evaluate screening algorithms with rapid antigen testing and exposure assessments as identification strategies for paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus (EBOV) infection and unrecognized EBOV disease (EVD).MethodsWe used serostatus and self-reported postexposure symptoms from a cohort study to classify contact-participants as having no infection, paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic infection, or unrecognized EVD. Exposure risk was categorized as low, intermediate, or high. We created hypothetical scenarios to evaluate the World Health Organization (WHO) case definition with or without rapid diagnostic testing (RDT) or exposure assessments.ResultsThis analysis included 990 EVD survivors and 1909 contacts, of whom 115 (6%) had paucisymptomatic or asymptomatic EBOV infection, 107 (6%) had unrecognized EVD, and 1687 (88%) were uninfected. High-risk exposures were drivers of unrecognized EVD (adjusted odds ratio, 3.5 [95% confidence interval, 2.4-4.9]). To identify contacts with unrecognized EVD who test negative by the WHO case definition, the sensitivity was 96% with RDT (95% confidence interval, 91%-99%), 87% with high-risk exposure (82%-92%), and 97% with intermediate- to high-risk exposures (93%-99%). The proportion of false-positives was 2% with RDT and 53%-93% with intermediate- and/or high-risk exposures.ConclusionWe demonstrated the utility and trade-offs of sequential screening algorithms with RDT or exposure risk assessments as identification strategies for contacts with unrecognized EVD.

Safer conception services are needed to minimize HIV transmission among HIV sero-different couples desiring pregnancy. Few studies have evaluated the choices couples make when offered multiple safer conception methods or real-world method acceptability and effectiveness. We piloted a comprehensive safer conception program (Clintrials.gov identifier: NCT03049176) for HIV sero-different couples planning pregnancy in Zimbabwe to measure feasibility, method uptake, acceptability, pregnancy outcome, and HIV transmission. This study was not designed to compare rates of HIV transmission by safer conception method choice but rather to understand choices couples make when seeking to minimize risk of HIV transmission and maximize likelihood of pregnancy. Couples in this prospective, non-randomized study were given a choice of one or more currently available safer conception methods: antiretroviral therapy (ART) with monthly viral load (VL) monitoring for the HIV-positive partner (ART/VL), pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for the HIV-negative partner, vaginal insemination (VI) for couples with an HIV-positive woman, and semen washing (SW) for couples with an HIV-positive man. Couples were followed monthly for up to 12 months of pregnancy attempts, quarterly during pregnancy, and 12 weeks post-partum. At each visit, data on method use, urine for pregnancy testing, and blood for HIV antibody testing, or viral load if HIV-positive, were obtained. Infants born to HIV-positive women were tested for HIV at 6 and 12 weeks. Between March 2017 and June 2019, 46 individuals from 23 HIV sero-different partnerships were enrolled and followed. At enrollment, all couples chose ART/VL, and all couples chose at least one additional method; 74% chose PrEP, 36% chose SW, and 25% chose VI. During pre-pregnancy follow-up visits, three couples discontinued SW, and one couple discontinued VI; all four of these couples opted for ART/VL plus PrEP. Satisfaction with safer conception methods was high among those who chose ART/VL and PrEP. Twelve couples achieved pregnancy. There were no cases of HIV transmission to partners, and no infants tested positive for HIV. This safer conception program is feasible and acceptable, allowing sero-different couples to safely achieve pregnancy. Sero-different couples in Zimbabwe seek a combination of HIV prevention methods, particularly ART/VL plus PrEP. Trial Registration: Clintrials.gov, NCT03049176.

BackgroundBased on findings from other contexts, informed by intergroup contact theory, that more contact is associated with less stigma, we hypothesized that community members with greater exposure to cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were less likely to report EVD-related stigma towards EVD survivors. We assessed personal stigmatizing attitudes towards Ebola survivors, which reflects personal fear and judgement, as well as perceived stigma towards EVD survivors, which reflects an individual's perception of the attitudes of the community towards a stigmatized group.MethodsFrom September 2016 to July 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional, community-based study of EVD-related stigma among individuals who did not contract Ebola in four EVD-affected rural communities of Kono District, Sierra Leone. We identified individuals from all quarantined households and obtained a random sample of those who were unexposed. Exposed individuals either lived in a quarantined household or were reported to have been in contact with an EVD case. Our explanatory variable was proximity to an EVD case during the outbreak. Our primary outcome was stigma towards EVD survivors, measured by a 6-item adapted HIV-related stigma index validated in Zambia and South Africa, with 1 item reflecting personal stigmatizing attitudes and 5 items reflecting perceived community stigma. The 6-item EVD stigma index had good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha=0.82). We used modified Poisson and negative binomial regression models, adjusting for potential confounders, to estimate the association between exposure proximity and EVD stigma.ResultsWe interviewed 538 participants aged 12 to 85 years. Most (57%) had been quarantined. Over one-third (39%) reported personal stigmatizing attitudes or perceived community stigma; the most frequently endorsed item was fear and judgment towards EVD survivors. Having contact with someone with EVD was significantly associated with a lower likelihood of perceived community stigma (prevalence ratio [PR], 0.26; 95% CI, 0.13-0.54) and personal stigmatizing attitudes (PR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29-0.65). In contrast, being quarantined was significantly associated with a higher likelihood of perceived community stigma (PR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.5-10.1).ConclusionsIn this cross-sectional study, we found evidence of an inverse relationship between EVD-related stigma and contact with an EVD case. This finding substantiates intergroup contact theory and may form the basis for anti-stigma interventions.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antigen can be detected in plasma, but little is known about its performance as a diagnostic test for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection or infectious viral shedding among nonhospitalized individuals.MethodsWe used data generated from anterior nasal and blood samples collected in a longitudinal household cohort of SARS-CoV-2 cases and contacts. Participants were classified as true positives if polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive for SARS-CoV-2 and as true negatives if PCR negative and seronegative. Infectious viral shedding was determined by the cytopathic effect from viral culture. Stratified by 7 days after symptom onset, we constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to describe optimized accuracy (Youden index), optimized sensitivity, and specificity.ResultsOf 80 participants, 58 (73%) were true positives while 22 (27%) were true negatives. Using the manufacturer's cutoff of 1.25 pg/mL for evaluating infection, sensitivity was higher from 0 to 7 days (77.6% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 64%-88.2%]) than from 8 to 14 days (43.2% [95% CI, 31.1%-54.5%]) after symptom onset; specificity was unchanged at 100% (95% CI, 88.1%-100%). This test had higher sensitivity (100% [95% CI, 88.4%-100%]) and lower specificity (65% [95% CI, 40.8%-84.6%]) for infectious viral shedding as compared with infection, particularly within the first week of symptom onset. Although the presence of N-antigen correlated with infectious viral shedding (r = 0.63; P < .01), sensitivity still declined over time. Additional cutoffs from ROC curves were identified to optimize sensitivity and specificity.ConclusionsWe found that this SARS-CoV-2 N-antigen test was highly sensitive for detecting early but not late infectious viral shedding, making it a viable screening test for community-dwelling individuals to inform isolation practices.

BackgroundTransmission by unreported cases has been proposed as a reason for the 2013-2016 Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic decline in West Africa, but studies that test this hypothesis are lacking. We examined a transmission chain within social networks in Sukudu village to assess spread and transmission burnout.MethodsNetwork data were collected in 2 phases: (1) serological and contact information from Ebola cases (n = 48, including unreported); and (2) interviews (n = 148), including Ebola survivors (n = 13), to identify key social interactions. Social links to the transmission chain were used to calculate cumulative incidence proportion as the number of EBOV-infected people in the network divided by total network size.ResultsThe sample included 148 participants and 1522 contacts, comprising 10 social networks: 3 had strong links (>50% of cases) to the transmission chain: household sharing (largely kinship), leisure time, and talking about important things (both largely non-kin). Overall cumulative incidence for these networks was 37 of 311 (12%). Unreported cases did not have higher network centrality than reported cases.ConclusionsAlthough this study did not find evidence that explained epidemic decline in Sukudu, it excluded potential reasons (eg, unreported cases, herd immunity) and identified 3 social interactions in EBOV transmission.

BackgroundPreventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2_ infections in healthcare workers (HCWs) is critical for healthcare delivery. We aimed to estimate and characterize the prevalence and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a US HCW cohort and to identify risk factors associated with infection.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal cohort study of HCWs at 3 Bay Area medical centers using serial surveys and SARS-CoV-2 viral and orthogonal serological testing, including measurement of neutralizing antibodies. We estimated baseline prevalence and cumulative incidence of COVID-19. We performed multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate associations of baseline factors with incident infections and evaluated the impact of time-varying exposures on time to COVID-19 using marginal structural models.ResultsA total of 2435 HCWs contributed 768 person-years of follow-up time. We identified 21 of 2435 individuals with prevalent infection, resulting in a baseline prevalence of 0.86% (95% confidence interval [CI], .53%-1.32%). We identified 70 of 2414 incident infections (2.9%), yielding a cumulative incidence rate of 9.11 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI, 7.11-11.52). Community contact with a known COVID-19 case was most strongly correlated with increased hazard for infection (hazard ratio, 8.1 [95% CI, 3.8-17.5]). High-risk work-related exposures (ie, breach in protective measures) drove an association between work exposure and infection (hazard ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.3-4.8). More cases were identified in HCWs when community case rates were high.ConclusionsWe observed modest COVID-19 incidence despite consistent exposure at work. Community contact was strongly associated with infections, but contact at work was not unless accompanied by high-risk exposure.

BackgroundHouseholds have emerged as important venues for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Little is known, however, regarding the magnitude and determinants of household transmission in increasingly vaccinated populations.MethodsFrom September 2020 to January 2022, symptomatic nonhospitalized individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection by RNA detection were identified within 5 days of symptom onset; all individuals resided with at least 1 other SARS-CoV-2-uninfected household member. These infected persons (cases) and their household members (contacts) were subsequently followed with questionnaire-based measurement and serial nasal specimen collection. The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection among contacts.ResultsWe evaluated 42 cases and their 74 household contacts. Among the contacts, 32 (43%) became infected, of whom 5 (16%) were asymptomatic; 81% of transmissions occurred by 5 days after the case's symptom onset. From 21 unvaccinated cases, 14-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among contacts was 18/40 (45% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 29%-62%]), most of whom were unvaccinated. From 21 vaccinated cases, 14-day cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was 14/34 (41% [95% CI, 25%-59%]) among all contacts and 12/29 (41% [95% CI, 24%-61%]) among vaccinated contacts. At least 1 comorbid condition among cases and 10 or more days of RNA detection in cases were associated with increased risk of infection among contacts.ConclusionsAmong households including individuals with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, both vaccinated-to-vaccinated and unvaccinated-to-unvaccinated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to household contacts was common. Because vaccination alone did not notably reduce risk of infection, household contacts will need to employ additional interventions to avoid infection.

BackgroundWhether or not individuals with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection and unrecognised Ebola virus disease develop clinical sequelae is unknown. We assessed current symptoms and physical examination findings among individuals with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection and unrecognised Ebola virus disease compared with Ebola virus disease survivors and uninfected contacts.MethodsBetween June 17, 2015, and June 30, 2017, we studied a cohort of Ebola virus disease survivors and their contacts in Liberia. Surveys, current symptoms and physical examination findings, and serology were used to characterise disease status of reported Ebola virus disease, unrecognised Ebola virus disease, pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection, or no infection. We pre-specified findings known to be differentially prevalent among Ebola virus disease survivors versus their contacts (urinary frequency, headache, fatigue, muscle pain, memory loss, joint pain, neurological findings, chest findings, muscle findings, joint findings, abdominal findings, and uveitis). We estimated the prevalence and incidence of selected clinical findings by disease status.FindingsOur analytical cohort included 991 reported Ebola virus disease survivors and 2688 close contacts. The median time from acute Ebola virus disease onset to baseline was 317 days (IQR 271-366). Of 222 seropositive contacts, 115 had pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection and 107 had unrecognised Ebola virus disease. At baseline, prevalent findings of joint pain, memory loss, muscle pain, and fatigue were lowest among those with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection or no infection, higher among contacts with unrecognised Ebola virus disease, and highest in reported survivors of Ebola virus disease. Joint pain was the most prevalent finding, and was reported in 434 (18%) of 2466 individuals with no infection, 14 (12%) of 115 with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection, 31 (29%) of 107 with unrecognised Ebola virus disease, and 476 (48%) of 991 with reported Ebola virus disease. In adjusted analyses, this pattern remained for joint pain and memory loss. Survivors had an increased odds of joint pain compared with unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2·13, 95% CI 1·34-3·39); unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts had an increased odds of joint pain compared with those with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection and uninfected contacts (adjusted OR 1·89, 95% CI 1·21-2·97). The adjusted odds of memory loss was more than four-times higher among survivors than among unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts (adjusted OR 4·47, 95% CI 2·41-8·30) and two-times higher among unrecognised Ebola virus disease contacts than in those with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic infection and uninfected contacts (adjusted OR 2·05, 95% CI 1·10-3·84). By 12 months, prevalent findings had decreased in the three infected groups.InterpretationOur findings provide evidence of post-Ebola virus disease clinical sequelae among contacts with unrecognised Ebola virus disease but not in people with pauci-symptomatic or asymptomatic Ebola virus infection.FundingNational Cancer Institute and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health.

BackgroundIt remains unclear if there is a dose-dependent relationship between exposure risk to Ebola virus (EBOV) and severity of illness.MethodsFrom September 2016 to July 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional, community-based study of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases and household contacts of several transmission chains in Kono District, Sierra Leone. We analyzed 154 quarantined households, comprising both reported EVD cases and their close contacts. We used epidemiological surveys and blood samples to define severity of illness as no infection, pauci-/asymptomatic infection, unrecognized EVD, reported EVD cases who survived, or reported EVD decedents. We determine seropositivity with the Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group EBOV glycoprotein immunoglobulin G antibody test. We defined levels of exposure risk from 8 questions and considered contact with body fluid as maximum exposure risk.ResultsOur analysis included 76 reported EVD cases (both decedents and survivors) and 421 close contacts. Among these contacts, 40 were seropositive (22 paucisymptomatic and 18 unrecognized EVD), accounting for 34% of the total 116 EBOV infections. Higher exposure risks were associated with having had EBOV infection (maximum risk: adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 12.1 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 5.8-25.4; trend test: P

Despite more than 300,000 rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-glycoprotein (GP) vaccine doses having been administered during Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) between 2018 and 2020, seroepidemiologic studies of vaccinated Congolese populations are lacking. This study examines the antibody response at 21 d and 6 mo postvaccination after single-dose rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP vaccination among EVD-exposed and potentially exposed populations in the DRC. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study of 608 rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP-vaccinated individuals during an EVD outbreak in North Kivu Province, DRC. Participants provided questionnaires and blood samples at three study visits (day 0, visit 1; day 21, visit 2; and month 6, visit 3). Anti-GP immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody titers were measured in serum by the Filovirus Animal Nonclinical Group anti-Ebola virus GP IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibody response was defined as an antibody titer that had increased fourfold from visit 1 to visit 2 and was above four times the lower limit of quantification at visit 2; antibody persistence was defined as a similar increase from visit 1 to visit 3. We then examined demographics for associations with follow-up antibody titers using generalized linear mixed models. A majority of the sample, 87.2%, had an antibody response at visit 2, and 95.6% demonstrated antibody persistence at visit 3. Being female and of young age was predictive of a higher antibody titer postvaccination. Antibody response and persistence after Ebola vaccination was robust in this cohort, confirming findings from outside of the DRC.

The 2013-2016 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic caused food insecurity during and immediately following local outbreaks in Sierra Leone, but longer-term effects are less well described, particularly among households with no EVD survivors. We conducted a qualitative sub-study in July 2018 in Kono District, Sierra Leone to understand the impact of food insecurity on EVD-affected households. Using data from a community-based cohort, we compiled a list of all households, within the sampled communities in Kono District, that had at least one EVD case during the epidemic. We used purposive sampling to recruit 30 households, inclusive of 10 households with no EVD survivors, to participate in the study. The research team conducted open-ended, semi-structured interviews with the head of each household. All 30 interviews were transcribed, translated, and analyzed using comparative content analysis consistent with a grounded theory approach. Most household members were facing persistent food insecurity as direct or indirect consequences of the EVD epidemic, regardless of whether they did or did not live with EVD survivors. Three major themes emerged as drivers and/or mitigators of EVD-related food insecurity. Financial instability and physical health complications were drivers of food insecurity in the population, whereas support provided by NGOs or governmental agencies was observed as a mitigator and driver of food insecurity after its removal. Among the EVD-households reporting long-term support through jobs and educational opportunities, there was sustained mitigation of food insecurity. EVD-affected households with and without survivors continue to face food insecurity three years after the EVD epidemic. Provision of support was a mitigator of food insecurity in the short term, but its removal was a driver of food insecurity in the longer term, suggesting the need for longer-term transitional support in affected households.

IntroductionCOVID-19 has caused tremendous death and suffering since it first emerged in 2019. Soon after its emergence, models were developed to help predict the course of various disease metrics, and these models have been relied upon to help guide public health policy.MethodsHere we present a method called COVIDNearTerm to "forecast" hospitalizations in the short term, two to four weeks from the time of prediction. COVIDNearTerm is based on an autoregressive model and utilizes a parametric bootstrap approach to make predictions. It is easy to use as it requires only previous hospitalization data, and there is an open-source R package that implements the algorithm. We evaluated COVIDNearTerm on San Francisco Bay Area hospitalizations and compared it to models from the California COVID Assessment Tool (CalCAT).ResultsWe found that COVIDNearTerm predictions were more accurate than the CalCAT ensemble predictions for all comparisons and any CalCAT component for a majority of comparisons. For instance, at the county level our 14-day hospitalization median absolute percentage errors ranged from 16 to 36%. For those same comparisons, the CalCAT ensemble errors were between 30 and 59%.ConclusionCOVIDNearTerm is a simple and useful tool for predicting near-term COVID-19 hospitalizations.

IntroductionGeospatial temporal data derived from smartphones traditionally used for purposes of navigation may offer valuable information for public health surveillance and locational hot spotting. Our objective was to develop a web-based application, called Covidseeker, that captures continuous fine-grained geospatial temporal data from smartphones and leverages these data to study transmission patterns of COVID-19.MethodsThis report describes the development of Covidseeker and the process by which it utilizes geospatial temporal data from smartphones and processes it into a usable format to study geospatial temporal patterns of COVID-19. We provide an overview of the design process, the principles, the software architecture, and the dashboard of the Covidseeker application and consider key challenges and strategic uses of capturing geospatial temporal data and the potential for future applications in outbreak surveillance.ResultsA resource such as Covidseeker can support situational awareness by providing information about the location and timing of transmission of diseases such as COVID-19. Geospatial temporal data housed in smartphones hold tremendous potential to capture more depth about where and when transmission occurs and the patterns of human mobility that lead to increases in risk of COVID-19.ConclusionAn enormous and highly rich source of geospatial temporal information about human mobility can be used to provide highly localized discrete information that is difficult to capture by traditional sources. The architecture of Covidseeker can be applied to help track COVID-19 and should be integrated with traditional disease surveillance practices.

The study was designed to compare intentions to receive COVID-19 vaccination by race-ethnicity, to identify beliefs that may mediate the association between race-ethnicity and intention to receive the vaccine and to identify the demographic factors and beliefs most strongly predictive of intention to receive a vaccine. Cross-sectional survey conducted from November 2020 to January 2021, nested within a longitudinal cohort study of the prevalence and incidence of SARS-CoV-2 among a general population-based sample of adults in six San Francisco Bay Area counties (called TrackCOVID). Study Cohort: In total, 3161 participants among the 3935 in the TrackCOVID parent cohort responded. Rates of high vaccine willingness were significantly lower among Black (41%), Latinx (55%), Asian (58%), Multi-racial (59%), and Other race (58%) respondents than among White respondents (72%). Black, Latinx, and Asian respondents were significantly more likely than White respondents to endorse lack of trust of government and health agencies as a reason not to get vaccinated. Participants' motivations and concerns about COVID-19 vaccination only partially explained racial-ethnic differences in vaccination willingness. Concerns about a rushed government vaccine approval process and potential bad reactions to the vaccine were the two most important factors predicting vaccination intention. Vaccine outreach campaigns must ensure that the disproportionate toll of COVID-19 on historically marginalized racial-ethnic communities is not compounded by inequities in vaccination. Efforts must emphasize messages that speak to the motivations and concerns of groups suffering most from health inequities to earn their trust to support informed decision making.

BackgroundRoutine viral testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2 infection might facilitate safe airline travel during the COVID-19 pandemic and mitigate global spread of the virus. However, the effectiveness of these test-and-travel strategies to reduce passenger risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and population-level transmission remains unknown.MethodsIn this simulation study, we developed a microsimulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a cohort of 100 000 US domestic airline travellers using publicly available data on COVID-19 clinical cases and published natural history parameters to assign individuals one of five health states of susceptible to infection, latent period, early infection, late infection, or recovered. We estimated a per-day risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 corresponding to a daily incidence of 150 infections per 100 000 people. We assessed five testing strategies: (1) anterior nasal PCR test within 3 days of departure, (2) PCR within 3 days of departure and 5 days after arrival, (3) rapid antigen test on the day of travel (assuming 90% of the sensitivity of PCR during active infection), (4) rapid antigen test on the day of travel and PCR test 5 days after arrival, and (5) PCR test 5 days after arrival. Strategies 2 and 4 included a 5-day quarantine after arrival. The travel period was defined as 3 days before travel to 2 weeks after travel. Under each scenario, individuals who tested positive before travel were not permitted to travel. The primary study outcome was cumulative number of infectious days in the cohort over the travel period without isolation or quarantine (population-level transmission risk), and the key secondary outcome was the number of infectious people detected on the day of travel (passenger risk of infection).FindingsWe estimated that in a cohort of 100 000 airline travellers, in a scenario with no testing or screening, there would be 8357 (95% uncertainty interval 6144-12831) infectious days with 649 (505-950) actively infectious passengers on the day of travel. The pre-travel PCR test reduced the number of infectious days from 8357 to 5401 (3917-8677), a reduction of 36% (29-41) compared with the base case, and identified 569 (88% [76-92]) of 649 actively infectious travellers on the day of flight; the addition of post-travel quarantine and PCR reduced the number of infectious days to 2520 days (1849-4158), a reduction of 70% (64-75) compared with the base case. The rapid antigen test on the day of travel reduced the number of infectious days to 5674 (4126-9081), a reduction of 32% (26-38) compared with the base case, and identified 560 (86% [83-89]) actively infectious travellers; the addition of post-travel quarantine and PCR reduced the number of infectious days to 3124 (2356-495), a reduction of 63% (58-66) compared with the base case. The post-travel PCR alone reduced the number of infectious days to 4851 (3714-7679), a reduction of 42% (35-49) compared with the base case.InterpretationRoutine asymptomatic testing for SARS-CoV-2 before travel can be an effective strategy to reduce passenger risk of infection during travel, although abbreviated quarantine with post-travel testing is probably needed to reduce population-level transmission due to importation of infection when travelling from a high to low incidence setting.FundingUniversity of California, San Francisco.

Visible signs of disease can evoke stigma while stigma contributes to depression and mental illness, sometimes manifesting as somatic symptoms. We assessed these hypotheses among Ebola virus disease (EVD) survivors, some of whom experienced clinical sequelae. Ebola virus disease survivors in Liberia were enrolled in an observational cohort study starting in June 2015 with visits every 6 months. At baseline and 18 months later, a seven-item index of EVD-related stigma was administered. Clinical findings (self-reported symptoms and abnormal findings) were obtained at each visit. We applied the generalized estimating equation method to assess the bidirectional concurrent and lagged associations between clinical findings and stigma, adjusting for age, gender, educational level, referral to medical care, and HIV serostatus as confounders. When assessing the contribution of stigma to later clinical findings, we restricted clinical findings to five that were also considered somatic symptoms. Data were obtained from 859 EVD survivors. In concurrent longitudinal analyses, each additional clinical finding increased the adjusted odds of stigma by 18% (95% CI: 1.11, 1.25), particularly palpitations, muscle pain, joint pain, urinary frequency, and memory loss. In lagged associations, memory loss (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.73, 12.36) and anorexia (AOR: 4.17; 95% CI: 1.82, 9.53) were associated with later stigma, but stigma was not significantly associated with later clinical findings. Stigma was associated with select symptoms, not abnormal objective findings. Lagged associations between symptoms and later stigma substantiate the possibility of a pathway related to visible symptoms identified by community members and leading to fear of contagion.

BackgroundEpidemics of COVID-19 in student populations at universities were a key concern for the 2020-2021 school year. The University of California (UC) System developed a set of recommendations to reduce campus infection rates. SARS-CoV-2 test results are summarized for the ten UC campuses during the Fall 2020 term.MethodsUC mitigation efforts included protocols for the arrival of students living on-campus students, non-pharmaceutical interventions, daily symptom monitoring, symptomatic testing, asymptomatic surveillance testing, isolation and quarantine protocols, student ambassador programs for health education, campus health and safety pledges, and lowered density of on-campus student housing. We used data from UC campuses, the UC Health-California Department of Public Health Data Modeling Consortium, and the U.S. Census to estimate the proportion of each campus' student populations that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and compared it to the fraction individuals aged 20-29 years who tested positive in their respective counties.ResultsSARS-CoV-2 cases in campus populations were generally low in September and October 2020, but increased in November and especially December, and were highest in early to mid-January 2021, mirroring case trajectories in their respective counties. Many students were infected during the Thanksgiving and winter holiday recesses and were detected as cases upon returning to campus. The proportion of students who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during Fall 2020 ranged from 1.2% to 5.2% for students living on campus and was similar to students living off campus. For most UC campuses the proportion of students testing positive was lower than that for the 20-29-year-old population in which campuses were located.ConclusionsThe layered mitigation approach used on UC campuses, informed by public health science and augmented perhaps by a more compliant population, likely minimized campus transmission and outbreaks and limited transmission to surrounding communities. University policies that include these mitigation efforts in Fall 2020 along with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, may alleviate some local concerns about college students returning to communities and facilitate resumption of normal campus operations and in-person instruction.

While there is evidence that parks support pediatric health, there have been no national studies looking at both physical and mental health. We assessed whether the presence of a neighborhood park is associated with pediatric physical or mental health across the U.S. using a nationally representative cross-sectional random sample of American children ages 0-17. Caregivers reported on the park presence in their child's neighborhood and the child's physical activity, screen-time, sleep, weight, and diagnosis of anxiety, depression, or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Covariates included child and family sociodemographics and, for 29 states, neighborhood urbanicity. Caregivers reported on 49,146 children (mean age 9.4 years; 49% female). There were 11,791 (24%) children living in neighborhoods lacking a park; children in non-urban locations (aOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.40-1.67) or below the federal poverty level (aOR = 1.48, 95%CI 1.38-1.58) had higher odds of lacking a park. Irrespective of sociodemographics, children lacking parks were more likely to be physically inactive (aOR1.36, 95% CI 1.24, 1.48), have excessive screen-time (aOR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.14, 1.25), or obtain inadequate sleep (aOR = 1.23, 95% CI 1.18, 1.29). Children without parks were more likely obese (aOR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.21, 1.43), overweight (aOR 1.25, 95%CI 1.17, 1.33), or diagnosed with ADHD (aOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12, 1.29), but not more anxious or depressed (aOR = 1.04, 95%CI 0.97, 1.11). Associations between parks and pediatric physical and mental health suggests that the provision of neighborhood parks could represent a low-cost childhood health intervention.

BackgroundOur understanding of the different effects of targeted versus nontargeted violence on Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is limited.MethodsWe used time-series data of case counts to compare individuals in Ebola-affected health zones in DRC, April 2018-August 2019. Exposure was number of violent events per health zone, categorized into Ebola-targeted or Ebola-untargeted, and into civilian-induced, (para)military/political, or protests. Outcome was estimated daily reproduction number (Rt) by health zone. We fit linear time-series regression to model the relationship.ResultsAverage Rt was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.11). A mean of 2.92 violent events resulted in cumulative absolute increase in Rt of 0.10 (95% CI, .05-.15). More violent events increased EBOV transmission (P = .03). Considering violent events in the 95th percentile over a 21-day interval and its relative impact on Rt, Ebola-targeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.30-1.74), while civilian-induced events corresponded to Rt of 1.43 (95% CI, 1.21-1.35). Untargeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.02-1.35); among these, militia/political or ville morte events increased transmission.ConclusionsEbola-targeted violence, primarily driven by civilian-induced events, had the largest impact on EBOV transmission.

BackgroundOur understanding of the different effects of targeted versus nontargeted violence on Ebola virus (EBOV) transmission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is limited.MethodsWe used time-series data of case counts to compare individuals in Ebola-affected health zones in DRC, April 2018-August 2019. Exposure was number of violent events per health zone, categorized into Ebola-targeted or Ebola-untargeted, and into civilian-induced, (para)military/political, or protests. Outcome was estimated daily reproduction number (Rt) by health zone. We fit linear time-series regression to model the relationship.ResultsAverage Rt was 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.11). A mean of 2.92 violent events resulted in cumulative absolute increase in Rt of 0.10 (95% CI, .05-.15). More violent events increased EBOV transmission (P = .03). Considering violent events in the 95th percentile over a 21-day interval and its relative impact on Rt, Ebola-targeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.52 (95% CI, 1.30-1.74), while civilian-induced events corresponded to Rt of 1.43 (95% CI, 1.21-1.35). Untargeted events corresponded to Rt of 1.18 (95% CI, 1.02-1.35); among these, militia/political or ville morte events increased transmission.ConclusionsEbola-targeted violence, primarily driven by civilian-induced events, had the largest impact on EBOV transmission.

While there is evidence that access to nature and parks benefits pediatric health, it is unclear how low-income families living in an urban center acknowledge or prioritize access to parks.MethodsWe conducted a study about access to parks by pediatric patients in a health system serving low-income families. Adult caregivers of pediatric patients completed a survey to identify and prioritize unmet social and economic needs, including access to parks. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to explore associations between lack of access to parks and sociodemographic variables. We also explored the extent to which access to parks competed with other needs.ResultsThe survey was completed by 890 caregivers; 151 (17%) identified "access to green spaces/parks/playgrounds" as an unmet need, compared to 397 (45%) who endorsed "running out of food before you had money or food stamps to buy more". Being at or below the poverty line doubled the odds ( Odds ratio 1.96, 95% CI 1.16-3.31) of lacking access to a park (reference group: above the poverty line), and lacking a high school degree nearly doubled the odds. Thirty-three of the 151 (22%) caregivers who identified access to parks as an unmet need prioritized it as one of three top unmet needs. Families who faced competing needs of housing, food, and employment insecurity were less likely to prioritize park access (p < 0.001).ConclusionClinical interventions to increase park access would benefit from an understanding of the social and economic adversity faced by patients.

We conducted secondary data analyses of pooled data from a clinical trial that prescribed park visits to children and their caregivers in a low-income, urban setting. Data were collected at the prescribing visit (baseline) and at one and three months of follow up from 78 families. Family characteristics were identified at baseline; regression models were used to explore changes during follow up in associations of park use with knowledge, attitudes and perceived access to parks. At baseline, park users differed from non-users in demographics, knowledge of park locations, attitudes about the value of park visits, but not affinity for nature. Park users were also more likely than non-users to feel that their neighborhood was safe for children to play in. Changes in knowledge of park locations, nature affinity, and perceived access to parks were each significantly associated with increased park use by families at one and three months after the park prescription. Adjusting for age, gender, race, poverty, and US birth, increases in knowing the location of parks were associated with an increase of 0.27 weekly park visits (95% CI 0.05, 0.49; p = 0.016); increases in feeling a caregiver had money to visit parks were associated with 0.48 more weekly park visits (95% CI 0.28, 0.69; p < 0.001); increases in perceived money for park outings were associated with 0.24 increased park visits per week (95% CI 0.05, 0.42; p = 0.01); each unit increase in nature affinity was associated with 0.34 more weekly park visits (95% CI 0.09, 0.59; p = 0.007). In other words, knowing where to go, valuing nature, and having time, and money contributed to increased likelihood of visiting a park. We discuss in terms of health behavior theory how demographics, knowledge, attitudes and perceived barriers to park use can inform park prescription interventions.

BackgroundEconomic compensation interventions may help support higher voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) coverage in priority sub-Saharan African countries. To inform World Health Organization guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of economic compensation interventions to increase VMMC uptake.MethodsEconomic compensation interventions were defined as providing money or in-kind compensation, reimbursement for associated costs (e.g. travel, lost wages), or lottery entry. We searched five electronic databases and four scientific conferences for studies examining the impact of such interventions on VMMC uptake, HIV testing and safer-sex/risk-reduction counseling uptake within VMMC, community expectations about compensation, and potential coercion. We screened citations, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias in duplicate. We conducted random-effects meta-analysis. We also reviewed studies examining acceptability, values/preferences, costs, and feasibility.ResultsOf 2484 citations identified, five randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and three non-randomized controlled trials met our eligibility criteria. Studies took place in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Meta-analysis of four RCTs showed significant impact of any economic compensation on VMMC uptake (relative risk: 5.23, 95% CI: 3.13 to 8.76). RCTs of food/transport vouchers and conditional cash transfers generally showed increases in VMMC uptake, but lotteries, subsidized VMMC, and receiving a gift appeared somewhat less effective. Three non-randomized trials showed mixed impact. Six additional studies suggested economic compensation interventions were generally acceptable, valued for addressing key barriers, and motivating to men. However, some participants felt they were insufficiently motivating or necessary; one study suggested they might raise community suspicions. One study from South Africa found a program cost of US$91 per additional circumcision and US$450-$1350 per HIV infection averted.ConclusionsEconomic compensation interventions, particularly transport/food vouchers, positively impacted VMMC uptake among adult men and were generally acceptable to potential clients. Carefully selected economic interventions may be a useful targeted strategy to enhance VMMC coverage.

BackgroundVoluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) remains an essential component of combination HIV prevention services, particularly in priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa. As VMMC programs seek to maximize impact and efficiency, and to support World Health Organization guidance, specific uptake-enhancing strategies are critical to identify.MethodsWe systematically reviewed the literature to evaluate the impact of service delivery interventions (e.g., facility layout, service co-location, mobile outreach) on VMMC uptake among adolescent and adult men. For the main effectiveness review, we searched for publications or conference abstracts that measured VMMC uptake or uptake of HIV testing or risk reduction counselling within VMMC services. We synthesized data by coding categories and outcomes. We also reviewed studies assessing acceptability, values/preferences, costs, and feasibility.ResultsFour randomized controlled trials and five observational studies were included in the effectiveness review. Studies took place in South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. They assessed a range of service delivery innovations, including community-, school-, and facility-based interventions. Overall, interventions increased VMMC uptake; some successfully improved uptake among age-specific subpopulations, but urban-rural stratification showed no clear trends. Interventions that increased adult men's uptake included mobile services (compared to static facilities), home-based testing with active referral follow-up, and facility-based HIV testing with enhanced comprehensive sexual education. Six acceptability studies suggested interventions were generally perceived to help men choose to get circumcised. Eleven cost studies suggested interventions create economies-of-scale and efficiencies. Three studies suggested such interventions were feasible, improving facility preparedness, service quality and quantity, and efficiencies.ConclusionsInnovative changes in male-centered VMMC services can improve adult men's and adolescent boys' VMMC uptake. Limited evidence on interventions that enhance access and acceptability show promising results, but evidence gaps persist due to inconsistent intervention definition and delivery, due in part to contextual relevance and limited age disaggregation.

BackgroundApproximately one in every five adolescent girls in Kenya has either had a live birth or is pregnant with her first child. There is an urgent need to understand the language and symbols used to represent adolescent pregnancy, if the current trend in adolescent pregnancy is to be reversed. Agreement on the definition of a societal problem is an important precursor to a social issue's political prioritization and priority setting.MethodsWe apply the Public Arenas Model to appraise the environments, definitions, competition dynamics, principles of selection and current actors involved in problem-solving and prioritizing adolescent pregnancy as a policy issue. Using a focused ethnographic approach, we undertook semi-structured interviews with 14 members of adolescent sexual reproductive health networks at the national level and conducted thematic analysis of the interviews.FindingsWe found that existing definitions center around adolescent pregnancy as a "disease" that needs prevention and treatment, socially deviant behaviour that requires individual agency, and a national social concern that drains public resources and therefore needs to be regulated. These competing definitions contribute to the rarity of the topic achieving traction within the political agenda and contribute to conflicting solutions, such as lowering the legal age of consenting to sex, while limiting access to contraceptive information and services to minors.ConclusionThis paper provides a timely theoretical approach to draw attention to the different competing definitions and subsequent divergent interpretations of the problem of adolescent pregnancy in Kenya. Adolescent reproductive health stakeholders need to be familiar with the existing definitions and deliberately reframe this important social problem for better political prioritization and resource allocation. We recommend a definition of adolescent pregnancy that cuts across different arenas, and leverages already existing dominant and concurrent social and economic issues that are already on the agenda table.

As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbreak in DRC extending both before and after June 16, 2019, and evaluated their accuracy by comparing forecasted vs. actual outbreak sizes, out-of-sample log-likelihood scores and the error per day in the median forecast. The median estimated outbreak sizes for the prospective thee-, six-, and nine-week projections made using data up to June 16, 2019, were, respectively, 2317 (95% PI: 2222, 2464); 2440 (95% PI: 2250, 2790); and 2544 (95% PI: 2273, 3205). The nine-week projection experienced some degradation with a daily error in the median forecast of 6.73 cases, while the six- and three-week projections were more reliable, with corresponding errors of 4.96 and 4.85 cases per day, respectively. Our findings suggest the Hawkes point process may serve as an easily-applied statistical model to predict EVD outbreak trajectories in near real-time to better inform decision-making and resource allocation during Ebola response efforts.

IntroductionAs of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak.MethodsWe collected daily EVD case counts from DRC Ministry of Health. A time-varying indicator of recent violence in each health zone was derived from events documented in the WHO situation reports. We used the Wallinga-Teunis technique to estimate the reproduction number R for each case by day per zone in the 2018-2019 outbreak. We fit an exponentially decaying curve to estimates of R overall and by health zone, for comparison to past outbreaks.ResultsAs of 16 April 2019, the mean overall R for the entire outbreak was 1.11. We found evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violent events versus those without (p = 0.008). The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violent events, and between 1.01 and 1.07 in zones affected by violent events within the last 21 days, leading to an increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53. Within zones with recent violent events, the mean estimated quenching rate was lower than for all past outbreaks except the 2013-2016 West African outbreak.ConclusionThe difference in the estimated transmission rates between zones affected by recent violent events suggests that violent events are contributing to increased transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak.

BackgroundAs of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.MethodsFor short- and long-term projections, we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission rates estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used two regression models to estimate similar projection periods. Short- and long-term projections were estimated using negative binomial autoregression and Theil-Sen regression, respectively. We also used Gott's rule to estimate a baseline minimum-information projection. We then constructed an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20, 2018 to February 25, 2019, short-term model projections were validated against known case counts.ResultsDuring validation of short-term projections, from one week to four weeks, we found models consistently scored higher on shorter-term forecasts. Based on case counts as of February 25, the stochastic model projected a median case count of 933 cases by February 18 (95% prediction interval: 872-1054) and 955 cases by March 4 (95% prediction interval: 874-1105), while the auto-regression model projects median case counts of 889 (95% prediction interval: 876-933) and 898 (95% prediction interval: 877-983) cases for those dates, respectively. Projected median final counts range from 953 to 1,749. Although the outbreak is already larger than all past Ebola outbreaks other than the 2013-2016 outbreak of over 26,000 cases, our models do not project that it is likely to grow to that scale. The stochastic model estimates that vaccination coverage in this outbreak is lower than reported in its trial setting in Sierra Leone.ConclusionsOur projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges.

BackgroundClinical sequelae of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have not been described more than 3 years postoutbreak. We examined survivors and close contacts from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and determined prevalence of abnormal neurological, cognitive, and psychological findings and their association with EVD survivorship.MethodsFrom August to September 2017, we conducted a cross-sectional study in Kikwit, DRC. Over 2 decades after the EVD outbreak, we recruited EVD survivors and close contacts from the outbreak to undergo physical examination and culturally adapted versions of the Folstein mini-mental status exam (MMSE) and Goldberg anxiety and depression scale (GADS). We estimated the strength of relationships between EVD survivorship and health outcomes using linear regression models by comparing survivors versus close contacts, adjusting for age, sex, educational level, marital status, and healthcare worker status.ResultsWe enrolled 20 EVD survivors and 187 close contacts. Among the 20 EVD survivors, 4 (20%) reported at least 1 abnormal neurological symptom, and 3 (15%) had an abnormal neurological examination. Among the 187 close contacts, 14 (11%) reported at least 1 abnormal neurologic symptom, and 9 (5%) had an abnormal neurological examination. EVD survivors had lower mean MMSE and higher mean GADS scores as compared to close contacts (MMSE: adjusted coefficient: -1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.63, -0.07; GADS: adjusted coefficient: 3.91; 95% CI: 1.76, 6.04).ConclusionsEVD survivors can have lower cognitive scores and more symptoms of depression and anxiety than close contacts more than 2 decades after Ebola virus outbreaks.

PurposeInforming adolescents of their own HIV infection is critical as the number of adolescents living with HIV increases. We assessed the association between HIV disclosure and retention in care and mortality among adolescents aged 10-14 years in Kenya's national program.MethodsWe abstracted routinely collected patient-level data for adolescents enrolled into HIV care in 50 health facilities from November 1, 2004, through March 31, 2010. We defined disclosure as any documentation that the adolescent had been fully or partially made aware of his or her HIV status. We compared weighted proportions for categorical variables using χ2 and weighted logistic regression to identify predictors of HIV disclosure; we estimated the probability of LTFU using Kaplan-Meier methods and dying using Cox regression-based test for equality of survival curves.ResultsOf the 710 adolescents aged 10-14 years analyzed; 51.3% had severe immunosuppression, 60.3% were in WHO stage 3 or 4, and 36.6% were aware of their HIV status. Adolescents with HIV-infected parents, histories of opportunistic infections (OIs), and enrolled in support groups were more likely to be disclosed to. At 36 months, disclosure was associated with lower mortality [1.5% (95% CI .6%-4.1%) versus 5.4% (95% CI 3.6.6%-8.0%, p < .001)] and lower LTFU [6.2% (95% CI 3.0%-12.6%) versus 33.9% (95% CI 27.3%-41.1%) p < .001].ConclusionsOnly one third of HIV-infected Kenyan adolescents in treatment programs had been told they were infected, and knowing their HIV status was associated with reduced LTFU and mortality. The disclosure process should be systematically encouraged and organized for HIV-infected adolescents.

BackgroundDespite the high burden of adverse adolescent sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, it has remained a low political priority in Kenya. We examined factors that have shaped the lack of current political prioritization of adolescent SRH service provision.MethodsWe used the Shiffman and Smith policy framework consisting of four categories-actor power, ideas, political contexts, and issue characteristics-to analyse factors that have shaped political prioritization of adolescent SRH. We undertook semi-structured interviews with 14 members of adolescent SRH networks between February and April 2019 at the national level and conducted thematic analysis of the interviews.FindingsSeveral factors hinder the attainment of political priority for adolescent SRH in Kenya. On actor power, the adolescent SRH community was diverse and united in adoption of international norms and policies, but lacked policy entrepreneurs to provide strong leadership, and policy windows were often missed. Regarding ideas, community members lacked consensus on a cohesive public positioning of the problem. On issue characteristics, the perception of adolescents as lacking political power made politicians reluctant to act on the existing data on the severity of adolescent SRH. There was also a lack of consensus on the nature of interventions to be implemented. Pertaining to political contexts, sectoral funding by donors and government treasury brought about tension within the different government ministries resulting in siloed approaches, lack of coordination and overall inefficiency. However, the SRH community has several strengths that augur well for future political support. These include the diverse multi-sectoral background of its members, commitment to improving adolescent SRH, and the potential to link with other health priorities such as maternal health and HIV/AIDS.ConclusionIn order to increase political attention to adolescent SRH in Kenya, there is an urgent need for policy actors to: 1) create a more cohesive community of advocates across sectors, 2) develop a clearer public positioning of adolescent SRH, 3) agree on a set of precise approaches that will resonate with the political system, and 4) identify and nurture policy entrepreneurs to facilitate the coupling of adolescent SRH with potential solutions when windows of opportunity arise.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration.

BackgroundCryptococcal disease remains one of the main causes of death in HIV-positive people who have low cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cell counts. Currently, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends screening HIV-positive people with low CD4 counts for cryptococcal antigenaemia (CrAg), and treating those who are CrAg-positive. This Cochrane Review examined the effects of an approach where those with low CD4 counts received regular prophylactic antifungals, such as fluconazole.ObjectivesTo assess the efficacy and safety of antifungal drugs for the primary prevention of cryptococcal disease in adults and children who are HIV-positive.Search methodsWe searched the CENTRAL, MEDLINE PubMed, Embase OVID, CINAHL EBSCOHost, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP), ClinicalTrials.gov, conference proceedings for the International AIDS Society (IAS) and Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI), and reference lists of relevant articles up to 31 August 2017.Selection criteriaRandomized controlled trials of adults and children, who are HIV-positive with low CD4 counts, without a current or prior diagnosis of cryptococcal disease that compared any antifungal drug taken as primary prophylaxis to placebo or standard care.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors independently assessed eligibility and risk of bias, and extracted and analysed data. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We summarized all outcomes using risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate, we pooled data in meta-analyses. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.Main resultsNine trials, enrolling 5426 participants, met the inclusion criteria of this review. Six trials administered fluconazole, while three trials administered itraconazole.Antifungal prophylaxis may make little or no difference to all-cause mortality (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.43; 6 trials, 3220 participants; low-certainty evidence). For cryptococcal specific outcomes, prophylaxis probably reduces the risk of developing cryptococcal disease (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.49; 7 trials, 5000 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), and probably reduces deaths due to cryptococcal disease (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.72; 5 trials, 3813 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Fluconazole prophylaxis may make no clear difference to the risk of developing clinically resistant Candida disease (RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.56; 3 trials, 1198 participants; low-certainty evidence); however, there may be an increased detection of fluconazole-resistant Candida isolates from surveillance cultures (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.55; 3 trials, 539 participants; low-certainty evidence). Antifungal prophylaxis was generally well-tolerated with probably no clear difference in the risk of discontinuation of antifungal prophylaxis compared with placebo (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.13; 4 trials, 2317 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Antifungal prophylaxis may also make no difference to the risk of having any adverse event (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.30; 4 trials, 2317 participants; low-certainty evidence), or a serious adverse event (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.41; 4 trials, 888 participants; low-certainty evidence) when compared to placebo or standard care.Authors' conclusionsAntifungal prophylaxis reduced the risk of developing and dying from cryptococcal disease. Therefore, where CrAG screening is not available, antifungal prophylaxis may be used in patients with low CD4 counts at diagnosis and who are at risk of developing cryptococcal disease.

We estimated mortality rate and predictors of death in children and adolescents who acquired HIV through mother-to-child transmission in Paraguay. In 2000-2014, we conducted a cohort study among children and adolescents aged  9 g/dL (HR 2.27, 95% CI 1.01-5.10). The mortality of HIV-infected children and adolescents in Paraguay is high, and anemia is associated with mortality. Improving prenatal screening to find cases earlier and improving pediatric follow-up are needed.

Understanding how HIV is acquired can inform interventions to prevent infection. We constructed a risk profile of 10-24 year olds participating in the 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey and classified them as perinatally infected if their biological mother was infected with HIV or had died, or if their father was infected with HIV or had died (for those lacking mother's data). The remaining were classified as sexually infected if they had sex, and the remaining as parenterally infected if they had a blood transfusion. Overall, 84 (1.6%) of the 5298 10-24 year olds tested HIV positive; 9 (11%) were aged 10-14 and 75 (89%) 15-24 years. Five (56%) 10-14 year olds met criteria for perinatal infection; 4 (44%) did not meet perinatal, sexual or parenteral transmission criteria and parental HIV status was not established. Of the 75 HIV-infected, 15 to 24 year olds, 5 (7%) met perinatal transmission, 63 (84%) sexual and 2 (3%) parenteral criteria; 5 (7%) were unclassified. Perinatal transmission likely accounted for 56% and sexual transmission for 84% of infections among 10-14 year olds and 15-24 year olds, respectively. Although our definitions may have introduced some uncertainty, and with the number of infected participants being small, our findings suggest that mixed modes of HIV transmission exist among adolescents and young people.

Studies have shown that people suffering from food insecurity are at higher risk for infectious and noncommunicable diseases and have poorer health outcomes. No study, however, has examined the association between food insecurity and outcomes related to Ebola virus disease (EVD). We conducted a cross-sectional study in two Ebola-affected communities in Kono district, Sierra Leone, from November 2015 to September 2016. We enrolled persons who were determined to have been exposed to Ebola virus. We assessed the association of food insecurity, using an adapted version of the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, a nine-item scale well validated across Africa, with having been diagnosed with EVD and having died of EVD, using logistic regression models with cluster-adjusted standard errors. We interviewed 326 persons who were exposed to Ebola virus; 61 (19%) were diagnosed with EVD and 45/61 (74%) died. We found high levels (87%) of food insecurity, but there was no association between food insecurity and having been diagnosed with EVD. Among EVD cases, those who were food insecure had 18.3 times the adjusted odds of death than those who were food secure (P = 0.03). This is the first study to demonstrate a potential relationship between food insecurity and having died of EVD, although larger prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Studies have yet to include minimally symptomatic Ebola virus (EBOV) infections and unrecognized Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Ebola-related transmission chains and epidemiologic risk estimates. We conducted a cross-sectional, sero-epidemiological survey from October 2015 to January 2016 among 221 individuals living in quarantined households from November 2014 to February 2015 during the Ebola outbreak in the village of Sukudu, Sierra Leone. Of 48 EBOV-infected persons, 25% (95% confidence interval [CI], 14%-40%) had minimally symptomatic EBOV infections and 4% (95% CI, 1%-14%) were unrecognized EVD cases. The pattern of minimally symptomatic EBOV infections in the transmission chain was nonrandom (P < .001, permutation test). Not having lived in the same house as an EVD case was significantly associated with minimally symptomatic infection. This is the first study to investigate a chain of EBOV transmission inclusive of minimally symptomatic EBOV infections and unrecognized EVD. Our findings provide new insights into Ebola transmission dynamics and quarantine practices.

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of infectious disease deaths worldwide and is the leading cause of death among people with HIV. The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for collaboration between public and private healthcare providers to maximize integration of TB/HIV services and minimize costs. We systematically reviewed published models of public-private sector diagnostic and referral services for TB/HIV co-infected patients.MethodsWe searched PubMed, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Google Scholar, Science Direct, CINAHL and Web of Science. We included studies that discussed programs that linked private and public providers for TB/HIV concurrent diagnostic and referral services and used Review Manager (Version 5.3, 2015) for meta-analysis.ResultsWe found 1,218 unduplicated potentially relevant articles and abstracts; three met our eligibility criteria. All three described public-private TB/HIV diagnostic/referral services with varying degrees of integration. In Kenya private practitioners were able to test for both TB and HIV and offer state-subsidized TB medication, but they could not provide state-subsidized antiretroviral therapy (ART) to co-infected patients. In India private practitioners not contractually engaged with the public sector offered TB/HIV services inconsistently and on a subjective basis. Those partnered with the state, however, could test for both TB and HIV and offer state-subsidized medications. In Nigeria some private providers had access to both state-subsidized medications and diagnostic tests; others required patients to pay out-of-pocket for testing and/or treatment. In a meta-analysis of the two quantitative reports, TB patients who sought care in the public sector were almost twice as likely to have been tested for HIV than TB patients who sought care in the private sector (risk ratio [RR] 1.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.88-2.08). However, HIV-infected TB patients who sought care in the public sector were marginally less likely to initiate ART than TB patients who sought care from private providers (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.78-1.03).ConclusionThese three studies are examples of public-private TB/HIV service delivery and can potentially serve as models for integrated TB/HIV care systems. Successful public-private diagnostic and treatment services can both improve outcomes and decrease costs for patients co-infected with HIV and TB.

IntroductionExposure to nature may reduce stress in low-income parents. This prospective randomized trial compares the effect of a physician's counseling about nature with or without facilitated group outings on stress and other outcomes among low-income parents.Materials and methodsParents of patients aged 4-18 years at a clinic serving low-income families were randomized to a supported park prescription versus independent park prescription in a 2:1 ratio. Parents in both groups received physician counseling about nature, maps of local parks, a journal, and pedometer. The supported group received additional phone and text reminders to attend three weekly family nature outings with free transportation, food, and programming. Outcomes measured in parents at baseline, one month and three months post-enrollment included: stress (using the 40-point Perceived Stress Scale [PSS10]); park visits per week (self-report and journaling); loneliness (modified UCLA-Loneliness Scale); physical activity (self-report, journaling, pedometry); physiologic stress (salivary cortisol); and nature affinity (validated scale).ResultsWe enrolled 78 parents, 50 in the supported and 28 in the independent group. One-month follow-up was available for 60 (77%) participants and three-month follow up for 65 (83%). Overall stress decreased by 1.71 points (95% CI, -3.15, -0.26). The improvement in stress did not differ significantly by group assignment, although the independent group had more park visits per week (mean difference 1.75; 95% CI [0.46, 3.04], p = 0.0085). In multivariable analysis, each unit increase in park visits per week was associated with a significant and incremental decrease in stress (change in PSS10-0.53; 95% CI [-0.89, -0.16]; p = 0.005) at three months.ConclusionWhile we were unable to demonstrate the additional benefit of group park visits, we observed an overall decrease in parental stress both overall and as a function of numbers of park visits per week. Paradoxically the park prescription without group park visits led to a greater increase in weekly park visits than the group visits. To understand the benefits of this intervention, larger trials are needed.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02623855.

Background: Safer conception services are needed to minimize HIV transmission among HIV sero-discordant couples desiring pregnancy. Few studies have evaluated the choices couples make when they are offered multiple safer conception methods or real-world method acceptability. This paper addresses an important knowledge gap regarding factors that influence the choice of safer conception methods, couples' actual experiences using safer conception methods, and why some couples switch safer conception methods. Methods: Between February and June 2019, we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews among 14 men and 17 women, representing 17 couples who exited the SAFER study—a pilot safer conception study for HIV sero-discordant couples in Zimbabwe that offered couples a choice of ART with monthly viral load monitoring (ART/VL), oral PrEP, vaginal insemination, and semen washing. All couples in SAFER had used at least two safer conception methods. Results: We found that safer conception method choice often centered around a desire for intimacy, condomless sex, and certainty in the conception process, particularly for men. Method-related attributes such as familiarity, perceived ease of use, side effects, and perceived level of effectiveness in preventing HIV and achieving pregnancy influenced method choice, switching, and satisfaction. Concerns were expressed about each safer conception method and couples were willing to try different methods until they found method(s) that worked for them. The majority of participants reported having positive experiences using safer conception, especially those using ART/VL + PrEP, citing that they were able to attempt pregnancy for the first time with peace of mind and experienced joy and satisfaction from being able to achieve pregnancy safely. Conclusions: The differences in method preferences and experiences voiced by participants in this study and in other studies from the region point to the importance of having a variety of safer conception options in the service delivery package and addressing concerns about paternity, intimacy, and method-related attributes to enable HIV sero-discordant couples to safely achieve their reproductive goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]