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BACKGROUND: A permanent stoma after anterior resection for rectal cancer is common. Preoperative counselling could be improved by providing individualized accurate prediction modelling. METHODS: Patients who underwent anterior resection between 2007 and 2015 were identified from the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry. National Patient Registry data were added to determine presence of a stoma 2 years after surgery. A training set based on the years 2007-2013 was employed in an ensemble of prediction models. Judged by the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC), data from the years 2014-2015 were used to evaluate the predictive ability of all models. The best performing model was subsequently implemented in typical clinical scenarios and in an online calculator to predict the permanent stoma risk. RESULTS: Patients in the training set (n = 3512) and the test set (n = 1136) had similar permanent stoma rates (13.6 and 15.2 per cent). The logistic regression model with a forward/backward procedure was the most parsimonious among several similarly performing models (AUROC 0.67, 95 per cent c.i. 0.63 to 0.72). Key predictors included co-morbidity, local tumour category, presence of metastasis, neoadjuvant therapy, defunctioning stoma use, tumour height, and hospital volume; the interaction between age and metastasis was also predictive. CONCLUSION: Using routinely available preoperative data, the stoma outcome at 2 years after anterior resection for rectal cancer can be predicted fairly accurately., Funding agency:Cancer Research Foundation in Northern Sweden

Objective. To evaluate the value, risks, and shortcomings of immunochemical faecal occult blood tests (iFOBTs) in the diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) and adenomas with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in patients initially presenting to primary care. Design. A retrospective population-based study. Setting and subjects. All 495 cases of CRC and adenomas with HGD diagnosed in the county of Jamtland, Sweden from 2005 to 2009. Results. Of 495 patients 323 (65%) initially presented to primary care. IFOBTs were performed in 215 of 323 (67%) patients. The sensitivity of iFOBT for CRC and adenomas with HGD was 88% (83% when patients with a history of rectal bleeding were excluded). Of 34 patients with anaemia found en passant, 10 had negative iFOBTs. Time to diagnosis was longer for patients with negative iFOBTs (p < 0.0005). Conclusion. IFOBT might be helpful in selecting which patients to refer for colonoscopy. However, iFOBT has a limited sensitivity as a diagnostic test for CRC and adenomas with HGD. Relying only on iFOBT for colonoscopy referral could delay diagnosis, especially for patients with anaemia found en passant.

Aim: The aim of the study was to compare patients with symptomatic anastomotic leakage following low anterior resection of the rectum (LAR) for cancer diagnosed during the initial hospital stay with those in whom leakage was diagnosed after hospital discharge. Method: Forty-five patients undergoing LAR (n=234) entered into a randomized multicentre trial (NCT 00636948), who developed symptomatic anastomotic leakage, were identified. A comparison was made between patients diagnosed during the initial hospital stay on median postoperative day 8 (early leakage, EL; n=27) and patients diagnosed after hospital discharge at median postoperative day 22 (late leakage, LL; n=18). Patient characteristics, operative details, postoperative course and anatomical localization of the leakage were analysed. Results: Leakage from the circular stapler line of an end-to-end anastomosis was more common in EL, while leakage from the stapler line of the efferent limb of the J-pouch or side-to-end anastomosis tended to be more frequent in LL (P=0.057). Intra-operative blood loss (P=0.006) and operation time (P=0.071) were increased in EL compared with LL. On postoperative day 5, EL performed worse than LL with regard to temperature (P=0.021), oral intake (P=0.006) and recovery of bowel activity (P=0.054). Anastomotic leakage was diagnosed most often by a rectal contrast study in EL and by CT scan in LL. The median initial hospital stay was 28days for EL and 10days for LL (P<0.001). Conclusion: The present study has demonstrated that symptomatic anastomotic leakage can present before and after hospital discharge and raises the question of whether early and late leakage after LAR may be different entities.

Objective The aim of this study was to investigate patients with symptomatic anastomotic leakage diagnosed after hospital discharge. Method Patients (n = 234) undergoing low anterior resection of the rectum for cancer who were included in a prospective multicentre trial (NCT 00636948) and who developed symptomatic anastomotic leakage diagnosed after hospital discharge (late leakage, LL; n = 18) were identified. Patient characteristics, operative details, recovery on postoperative day 5, length of hospital stay, and how the leakage was diagnosed were recorded. A comparison with those who did not develop symptomatic leakage (no leakage, NL; n = 189) was made. The minimum follow up was 24 months. Results In the LL patients the median age was 69 years, 61% were female patients, and 6% had stage IV cancer disease. On postoperative day 5, the LL group had a postoperative course similar to the NL group regarding temperature, oral intake and bowel function. The proportion of patients on antibiotic treatment on postoperative day 5, regardless of indication, was 28% in the LL compared with 4% in the NL group (P < 0.001). The median initial hospital stay was 10 days for both groups. When readmission for any reason was added, the hospital stay rose to a median of 21.5 and 13 days in the LL and the NL groups respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusion Symptomatic anastomotic leakage diagnosed after hospital discharge following low anterior resection of the rectum for cancer is not uncommon and has an immediate clinical postoperative course which may appear uneventful.

We investigated the association between physical activity and colorectal cancer risk in a cohort of Swedish men. Information on physical activity was obtained at baseline in 1997 with a self-administered questionnaire from 45,906 men who were cancer-free at enrollment. During a mean follow-up of 7.1 years, 496 cases of colorectal cancer occurred.. Leisure-time physical activity was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk; the multivariate hazard ratio (HR) for 60 min or more per day of leisure-time physical activity compared with less than 10 min per day was 0.57 (95% CI 0.41-0.79; P for trend = 0.001). Results were similar for colon (HR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.37-0.83) and rectal cancer (HR = 0.59; 95% CI 0.34-1.02). Home/housework activity was inversely associated with colon cancer risk (HR = 0.68; 95% CI 0.48-0.96). No association was observed for work/occupational activity. These results support a role of physical activity in reducing the risk of colon and rectal cancer.

Background: The aim of this population-based study was to analyse risk factors for death within 30 days after anterior resection of the rectum. Methods: Between 1987 and 1995 a total of 6833 patients underwent elective anterior resection of the rectum in Sweden. One hundred and forty of these patients died within 30 days or during the initial hospital stay. These patients were compared with a randomly chosen cohort of 423 patients who underwent the same operation during the same interval, and were alive after 30 days and discharged from hospital. The association between death and 12 putative risk factors was studied. Results: The mortality rate after elective anterior resection was 2.1 per cent (140 of 6833). The incidence of clinical anastomotic leakage was 42.1 per cent (59 of 140) among those who died and 10.9 per cent (46 of 423) in the cohort group. Multivariate regression analysis identified clinical leakage, increased age, male sex, Dukes' 'D' stage and intraoperative adverse events as independent risk factors for death within 30 days. Conclusion: Clinical anastomotic leakage was a major cause of postoperative death after anterior resection. Copyright © 2006 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd.

Objective. Surgical technique and peri-operative management of rectal carcinoma have developed substantially in the last decades. Despite this, morbidity and mortality after anterior resection of the rectum are still important problems. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for anastomotic leakage in anterior resection and to assess the role of a temporary stoma and the need for urgent re-operations in relation to anastomotic leakage. Patients and methods. In a nine-year period, from 1987 to 1995, a total of 6833 patients underwent elective anterior resection of the rectum in Sweden. A random sample of 432 of these patients was analysed (sample size 6.3%). The associations between death and 10 patient-and surgery-related variables were studied by univariate and multivariate analysis. Data were obtained by review of the hospital files from all patients. Results. The incidence of symptomatic clinically evident anastomotic leakage was 12% (53/432). The 30-day mortality was 2.1% (140/6833). The rate of mortality associated with leakage was 7.5%. A temporary stoma was initially fashioned in 17% (72/432) of the patients, and 15% (11/72) with a temporary stoma had a clinical leakage, compared with 12% (42/360) without a temporary stoma, not significant. Multivariate analysis showed that low anastomosis (≤ 6 cm), pre-operative radiation, presence of intra-opcrative adverse events and male gender were independent risk factors for leakage. The risk for permanent stoma after leakage was 25%. Females with stoma leaked in 3% compared to men with stoma who leaked in 29%. The median hospital stay for patients Arithout leakage was 10 days (range 5-61 days) and for patients with leakage 22 days (3-110 days). Conclusion. In this population based study, 12% of the patients had symptomatic anastomotic leakage after anterior resection of the rectum. Postoperative 30-day mortality was 2.1%. Low anastomosis, pre-operative radiation, presence of intra-operative adverse events

Background: The aim of this population-based study was to analyse the relationship between intraoperative adverse events and outcome after anterior resection. Methods: All 140 patients who underwent elective anterior resection in Sweden between 1987 and 1995, and who died within 30 days, were compared with a group of 423 randomly selected patients who underwent the same procedure during the same interval but survived the operation. Intraoperative adverse events and intraoperative measures taken were analysed in relation to outcome of surgery. Results: Of those who died, 45.7 per cent had intraoperative adverse events compared with 30.3 per cent in the cohort group. Major bleeding, gross spillage of faeces, and two or more intraoperative adverse events were more common among those who died. When the anastomosis was considered unsatisfactory, it was more frequently reconstructed (restapled or completely resutured), with or without a temporary stoma, in those who survived. The use of a temporary stoma was comparable in the two groups when adverse events were present. Conclusion: Intraoperative adverse events were important contributors to morbidity and mortality. Complete reconstruction of an unsatisfactory anastomosis, with or without addition of a temporary stoma, was more frequently performed in the survivors, and may have diminished the risk of postoperative death.