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We present an empirical model of the global infrared energy budget of the thermosphere over the past 70 years. The F(sub 10.7), Ap, and Dst indices are used in linear regression fits to the 14.5 year time series of radiative cooling by carbon dioxide and nitric oxide measured by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the TIMED satellite. Databases of these indices are used to develop the radiative cooling time series from 1947. No consistent relation between the occurrence of peak sunspot number and peak infrared cooling is found over the past six solar cycles. The total infrared energy radiated by the thermosphere, integrated over a solar cycle, is nearly constant over five complete solar cycles studied. This is a direct consequence of the geoeffective solar energy also being nearly constant over the same intervals. These results provide a new metric for assessing the terrestrial context of the long‐term record of solar‐related indices.

The global infrared (IR) energy budget of the thermosphere has been reconstructed back 70 years (to 1947). IR cooling, integrated over a solar cycle, is relatively constant over the 5 complete cycles (19 -23) studied. Result implies that solar energy (particles and photons) has similar, small (< 7%) variation from one cycle to next. From Earth's upper atmosphere perspective, solar cycles are really more similar than different, over their length. No consistent relationship between peak of IR cooling and sunspot number peak. Results submitted to GRL 8/2016.

Most recent assessments of long-term changes in the vertical distribution of ozone (by e.g. WMO and SI2N) rely on data sets that integrate observations by multiple instruments. Several merged satellite ozone profile records have been developed over the past few years; each considers a particular set of instruments and adopts a particular merging strategy. Their intercomparison by Tummon et al. revealed that the current merging schemes are not sufficiently refined to correct for all major differences between the limb/occultation records. This shortcoming introduces uncertainties that need to be known to obtain a sound interpretation of the different satellite-based trend studies. In practice however, producing realistic uncertainty estimates is an intricate task which depends on a sufficiently detailed understanding of the characteristics of each contributing data record and on the subsequent interplay and propagation of these through the merging scheme. Our presentation discusses these challenges in the context of limb/occultation ozone profile records, but they are equally relevant for other instruments and atmospheric measurements. We start by showing how the NDACC and GAW-affiliated ground-based networks of ozonesonde and lidar instruments allowed us to characterize fourteen limb/occultation ozone profile records, together providing a global view over the last three decades. Our prime focus will be on techniques to estimate long-term drift since our results suggest this is the main driver of the major trend differences between the merged data sets. The single-instrument drift estimates are then used for a tentative estimate of the systematic uncertainty in the profile trends from merged data records. We conclude by reflecting on possible further steps needed to improve the merging algorithms and to obtain a better characterization of the uncertainties involved.

The analysis of mutual ozone-temperature variations can provide useful information on their interdependencies relative to the photochemistry and dynamics governing their behavior. Previous studies have mostly been based on satellite measurements taken at a fixed local time in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. For these data, it is shown that the zonal mean ozone amounts and temperatures in the lower stratosphere are mostly positively correlated, while they are mostly negatively correlated in the upper stratosphere and in the lower mesosphere. The negative correlation, due to the dependence of photochemical reaction rates on temperature, indicates that ozone photochemistry is more important than dynamics in determining the ozone amounts. In this study, we provide new results by extending the analysis to include diurnal variations over 24 hrs of local time, and to larger spatial regimes, to include the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The results are based on measurements by the SABER instrument on the TIMED satellite. For mean variations (i.e., averages over local time and longitude) in the MLT, our results show that there is a sharp reversal in the correlation near 80 km altitude, above which the ozone mixing ratio and temperature are mostly positively correlated, while they are mostly negatively correlated below 80 km. This is consistent with the view that above -80 km, effects due to dynamics are more important compared to photochemistry. For diurnal variations, both the ozone and temperature show phase progressions in local time, as a function of altitude and latitude. For temperature, the phase progression is as expected, as they represent migrating tides. For day time ozone, we also find regular phase progression in local time over the whole altitude range of our analysis, 25 to 105 km, at least for low latitudes. This was not previously known, although phase progressions had been noted by us and by others at lower altitudes. For diurnal variations, we find that between about 40 and 65 km, the ozone amounts and temperatures are mostly negatively correlated or neutral, while below approx. 40 km they are mostly positively correlated or neutral. The correlations are less systematic and less robust than for correlations of the mean. At altitudes above approx.65 km, the correlations are more complex, and depend on the tidal temperature variations. For the diurnal case, consideration needs to be given to transport by thermal tides and to the efficacy of response times of ozone concentrations and temperature to each other.

We present observations of the infrared radiative cooling by carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO) in Earth s thermosphere. These data have been taken over a period of 7 years by the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite and are the dominant radiative cooling mechanisms for the thermosphere. From the SABER observations we derive vertical profiles of radiative cooling rates (W/cu m), radiative fluxes (W/sq m), and radiated power (W). In the period from January 2002 through January 2009 we observe a large decrease in the cooling rates, fluxes, and power consistent with the declining phase of solar cycle. The power radiated by NO during 2008 when the Sun exhibited few sunspots was nearly one order of magnitude smaller than the peak power observed shortly after the mission began. Substantial short-term variability in the infrared emissions is also observed throughout the entire mission duration. Radiative cooling rates and radiative fluxes from NO exhibit fundamentally different latitude dependence than do those from CO2, with the NO fluxes and cooling rates being largest at high latitudes and polar regions. The cooling rates are shown to be derived relatively independent of the collisional and radiative processes that drive the departure from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) in the CO2 15 m and the NO 5.3 m vibration-rotation bands. The observed NO and CO2 cooling rates have been compiled into a separate dataset and represent a climate data record that is available for use in assessments of radiative cooling in upper atmosphere general circulation models.

Thermospheric infrared radiance at 4.3 micrometers is susceptible to the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances. Ionization processes followed by ion-neutral chemical reactions lead to vibrationally excited NO(+) (i.e., NO(+)(v)) and subsequent 4.3 micrometer emission in the ionospheric E-region. Large enhancements of nighttime 4.3 m emission were observed by the TIMED/SABER instrument during the April 2002 and October-November 2003 solar storms. Global measurements of infrared 4.3 micrometer emission provide an excellent proxy to observe the nighttime E-region response to auroral dosing and to conduct a detailed study of E-region ion-neutral chemistry and energy transfer mechanisms. Furthermore, we find that photoionization processes followed by ion-neutral reactions during quiescent, daytime conditions increase the NO(+) concentration enough to introduce biases in the TIMED/SABER operational processing of kinetic temperature and CO2 data, with the largest effect at summer solstice. In this paper, we discuss solar storm enhancements of 4.3 micrometer emission observed from SABER and assess the impact of NO(+)(v) 4.3 micrometer emission on quiescent, daytime retrievals of Tk/CO2 from the SABER instrument.

Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data provide the first opportunity to characterize the four-dimensional stratopause evolution throughout the life-cycle of a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). The polar stratopause, usually higher than that at midlatitudes, dropped by 30 km and warmed during development of a major "wave 1" SSW in January 2006, with accompanying mesospheric cooling. When the polar vortex broke down, the stratopause cooled and became ill-defined, with a nearly isothermal stratosphere. After the polar vortex started to recover in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere (USLM), a cool stratopause reformed above 75 km, then dropped and warmed; both the mesosphere above and the stratosphere below cooled at this time. The polar stratopause remained separated from that at midlatitudes across the core of the polar night jet. In the early stages of the SSW, the strongly tilted (westward with increasing altitude) polar vortex extended into the mesosphere, and enclosed a secondary temperature maximum extending westward and slightly equatorward from the highest altitude part of the polar stratopause over the cool stratopause near the vortex edge. The temperature evolution in the USLM resulted in strongly enhanced radiative cooling in the mesosphere during the recovery from the SSW, but significantly reduced radiative cooling in the upper stratosphere. Assimilated meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5.0.1 (GEOS-5), which are not constrained by data at polar stratopause altitudes and have model tops near 80 km, could not capture the secondary temperature maximum or the high stratopause after the SSW; they also misrepresent polar temperature structure during and after the stratopause breakdown, leading to large biases in their radiative heating rates. ECMWF analyses represent the stratospheric temperature structure more accurately, suggesting a better representation of vertical motion; GEOS-5 analyses more faithfully describe stratopause level wind and wave amplitudes. The high-quality satellite temperature data used here provide the first daily, global, multiannual data sets suitable for assessing and, eventually, improving representation of the USLM in models and assimilation systems.

The response of the ionospheric E-region to solar-geomagnetic storms can be characterized using observations of infrared 4.3 micrometers emission. In particular, we utilize nighttime TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 micrometers limb emission and derive a new data product, the NO+(v) volume emission rate, which is our primary observation-based quantity for developing an empirical storm-time correction the IRI E-region electron density. In this paper we describe our E-region proxy and outline our strategy for developing the empirical storm model. In our initial studies, we analyzed a six day storm period during the Halloween 2003 event. The results of this analysis are promising and suggest that the ap-index is a viable candidate to use as a magnetic driver for our model.

We present corrected computations of the infrared power and energy radiated by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) during the solar storm event of April 2002. The computations in our previous paper underestimated the radiated power due to improper weighting of the radiated power and energy with respect to area as a function of latitude. We now find that the radiation by NO during the April 2002 storm period accounts for 50% of the estimated energy input to the atmosphere from the solar storm. The prior estimate was 28.5%. Emission computed for CO2 is also correspondingly increased, but the relative roles of CO2 and NO remain unchanged. NO emission enhancement is still, far and away, the dominant infrared response to the solar storms of April 2002.

The large thermospheric infrared radiance enhancements observed from the TIMED/SABER experiment during recent solar storms provide an exciting opportunity to study the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances on the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. In particular, nighttime enhancements of 4.3 um emission, due to vibrational excitation and radiative emission by NO+, provide an excellent proxy to study and analyze the response of the ionospheric E-region to auroral electron dosing and storm-time enhancements to the E-region electron density. In this paper we give a status report of on-going work on model and data analysis methodologies of deriving NO+ 4.3 um volume emission rates, a proxy for the storm-time E-region response, and the approach for deriving an empirical storm-time correction to International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region NO+ and electron densities.

Horizontal wind observations over four years from the meteor radar at Esrange (68 deg N) are analyzed to determine the variability of the semidiurnal tide. Simultaneous global observations of temperature and geopotential from the SABER satellite instrument are used to construct time series of planetary wave amplitudes and geostrophic mean zonal wind. During NH summer and fall, the temporal variability of the semidiurnal tide at Esrange is found to be well correlated with the amplitude of planetary wavenumber 1 in the stratosphere in high southern latitudes (i.e., in the opposite hemisphere). The correlations indicate that a significant part of the tidal variations at Esrange is due to dynamical interactions in the Southern Hemisphere. Other times of the year do not indicate a corresponding robust correlation pattern for the Esrange tides over multiple years.

Microwave Limb Sounder and Sounding of the Atmosphere with Broadband Emission Radiometry data show the polar stratopause, usually higher than and separated from that at midlatitudes, dropping from <55-60 to near 30 km, and cooling dramatically in January 2006 during a major stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). After a nearly isothermal period, a cool stratopause reforms near 75 km in early February, then drops to <55 km and warms. The stratopause is separated in longitude as well as latitude, with lowest temperatures in the transition regions between higher and lower stratopauses. Operational assimilated meteorological analyses, which are not constrained by data at stratopause altitude, do not capture a secondary temperature maximum that overlies the stratopause or the very high stratopause that reforms after the SSW; they underestimate the stratopause altitude variation during the SSW. High-quality daily satellite temperature measurements are invaluable in improving our understanding of stratopause evolution and its representation in models and assimilation systems.

Global ozone trends derived from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment I and II (SAGE I/II) combined with the more recent Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) observations provide evidence of a slowdown in stratospheric ozone losses since 1997. This evidence is quantified by the cumulative sum of residual differences from the predicted linear trend. The cumulative residuals indicate that the rate of ozone loss at 35- 45 km altitudes globally has diminished. These changes in loss rates are consistent with the slowdown of total stratospheric chlorine increases characterized by HALOE HCI measurements. These changes in the ozone loss rates in the upper stratosphere are significant and constitute the first stage of a recovery of the ozone layer.

The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) experiment was launched onboard the TIMED satellite in December, 2001. SABER is designed to provide measurements of the key radiative and chemical sources and sinks of energy in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). SABER measures Earth limb emission in 10 broadband radiometer channels ranging from 1.27 micrometers to 17 micrometers. Measurements are made both day and night over the latitude range from 54 deg. S to 87 deg. N with alternating hemisphere coverage every 60 days. In this paper we concentrate on retrieved profiles of kinetic temperature (T(sub k)) and CO2 volume mixing ratio (vmr), inferred from SABER-observed 15 micrometer and 4.3 micrometer limb emissions, respectively. SABER-measured limb radiances are in non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) in the MLT region. The complexity of non-LTE radiation transfer combined with the large volume of data measured by SABER requires new retrieval approaches and radiative transfer techniques to accurately and efficiently retrieve the data products. In this paper we present the salient features of the coupled non-LTE T(sub k)/CO2 retrieval algorithm, along with preliminary results.