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Causal systems often exhibit variations of the underlying causal mechanisms between the variables of the system. Often, these changes are driven by different environments or internal states in which the system operates, and we refer to context variables as those variables that indicate this change in causal mechanisms. An example are the causal relations in soil moisture-temperature interactions and their dependence on soil moisture regimes: Dry soil triggers a dependence of soil moisture on latent heat, while environments with wet soil do not feature such a feedback, making it a context-specific property. Crucially, a regime or context variable such as soil moisture need not be exogenous and can be influenced by the dynamical system variables - precipitation can make a dry soil wet - leading to joint systems with endogenous context variables. In this work we investigate the assumptions for constraint-based causal discovery of context-specific information in systems with endogenous context variables. We show that naive approaches such as learning different regime graphs on masked data, or pooling all data, can lead to uninformative results. We propose an adaptive constraint-based discovery algorithm and give a detailed discussion on the connection to structural causal models, including sufficiency assumptions, which allow to prove the soundness of our algorithm and to interpret the results causally. Numerical experiments demonstrate the performance of the proposed method over alternative baselines, but they also unveil current limitations of our method.

The idea of fractional derivatives has a long history that dates back centuries. Apart from their intriguing mathematical properties, fractional derivatives have been studied widely in physics, for example in quantum mechanics and generally in systems with nonlocal temporal or spatial interactions. However, systematic experiments have been rare due to challenges associated with the physical implementation. Here we report the observation and full characterization of a family of temporal optical solitons that are governed by a nonlinear wave equation with a fractional Laplacian. This equation has solutions with unique properties such as non-exponential tails and a very small time-bandwidth product.

Causal structure learning with data from multiple contexts carries both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities arise from considering shared and context-specific causal graphs enabling to generalize and transfer causal knowledge across contexts. However, a challenge that is currently understudied in the literature is the impact of differing observational support between contexts on the identifiability of causal graphs. Here we study in detail recently introduced [6] causal graph objects that capture both causal mechanisms and data support, allowing for the analysis of a larger class of context-specific changes, characterizing distribution shifts more precisely. We thereby extend results on the identifiability of context-specific causal structures and propose a framework to model context-specific independence (CSI) within structural causal models (SCMs) in a refined way that allows to explore scenarios where these graph objects differ. We demonstrate how this framework can help explaining phenomena like anomalies or extreme events, where causal mechanisms change or appear to change under different conditions. Our results contribute to the theoretical foundations for understanding causal relations in multi-context systems, with implications for generalization, transfer learning, and anomaly detection. Future work may extend this approach to more complex data types, such as time-series.

We theoretically and numerically study the evolution of soliton-like waves supported by stimulated Brillouin scattering. First, the emergence and unusual behaviour of resonant solitary waves are investigated for both backward and forward three wave interactions. We find that these waves can be characterized by the ratio between the optical and acoustic damping coefficients. We also examine a second class of non-resonant anti-symmetric soliton-like waves, which have a more complicated pulse shape than traditional solitons. These waves are superluminal, with pulse velocities that can be tuned by the input Stokes and pump fields. We discuss the excitation of these types of waves and the physical conditions required for their observation., Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures

Scientific research often seeks to understand the causal structure underlying high-level variables in a system. For example, climate scientists study how phenomena, such as El Ni\~no, affect other climate processes at remote locations across the globe. However, scientists typically collect low-level measurements, such as geographically distributed temperature readings. From these, one needs to learn both a mapping to causally-relevant latent variables, such as a high-level representation of the El Ni\~no phenomenon and other processes, as well as the causal model over them. The challenge is that this task, called causal representation learning, is highly underdetermined from observational data alone, requiring other constraints during learning to resolve the indeterminacies. In this work, we consider a temporal model with a sparsity assumption, namely single-parent decoding: each observed low-level variable is only affected by a single latent variable. Such an assumption is reasonable in many scientific applications that require finding groups of low-level variables, such as extracting regions from geographically gridded measurement data in climate research or capturing brain regions from neural activity data. We demonstrate the identifiability of the resulting model and propose a differentiable method, Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding (CDSD), that simultaneously learns the underlying latents and a causal graph over them. We assess the validity of our theoretical results using simulated data and showcase the practical validity of our method in an application to real-world data from the climate science field., Comment: 33 pages, 17 figures

When trying to use quantum-enhanced methods for optimization problems, the sheer number of options inhibits its adoption by industrial end users. Expert knowledge is required for the formulation and encoding of the use case, the selection and adaptation of the algorithm, and the identification of a suitable quantum computing backend. Navigating the decision tree spanned by these options is a difficult task and supporting integrated tools are still missing. We propose the QuaST decision tree, a framework that allows to explore, automate and systematically evaluate solution paths. It helps end users to transfer research to their application area, and researchers to gather experience with real-world use cases. Our setup is modular, highly structured and flexible enough to include any kind of preparation, pre-processing and post-processing steps. We develop the guiding principles for the design of the ambitious framework and discuss its implementation. The QuaST decision tree includes multiple complete top-down paths from an application to its fully hybrid quantum solution.

Current theories of decision making suggest that the neural circuits in mammalian brains (including humans) computationally combine representations of the past (memory), present (perception), and future (agentic goals) to take actions that achieve the needs of the agent. How information is represented within those neural circuits changes what computations are available to that system which changes how agents interact with their world to take those actions. We argue that the computational neuroscience of decision making provides a new microeconomic framework (neuroeconomics) that offers new opportunities to construct policies that interact with those decision-making systems to improve outcomes. After laying out the computational processes underlying decision making in mammalian brains, we present four applications of this logic with policy consequences: (1) contingency management as a treatment for addiction, (2) precommitment and the sensitivity to sunk costs, (3) media consequences for changes in housing prices after a disaster, and (4) how social interactions underlie the success (and failure) of microfinance institutions.

A surprising result from the theory of quantum control is the degree to which the properties of a physical system can be manipulated. Both atomic and many-body solid state models admit the possibility of creating a 'driven imposter', in which the optical response of one material mimics that of a dynamically distinct system. Here we apply these techniques to polarons in polar liquids. Such quasiparticles describe solvated electrons interacting with many-body degrees of freedom of their environment. The polaron frequency, which depends on the electron concentration in the liquid, is controlled with a pump field, rendering the polaron frequency of three different liquids identical. The experiments demonstrate the feasibility of 'polar impostorons', a so far purely theoretical phenomenon., Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures

A coding scheme for broadcast channels (BCs) is proposed that shifts the users' code blocks by different amounts of time and applies alternating Gelfand-Pinsker encoding. The scheme achieves all rate tuples in Marton's region for two receiver BCs without time-sharing or rate-splitting. Simulations with short polar codes show that the method reduces the gap to capacity as compared to time-sharing., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures; as presented at ISIT 2024

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes are commonly used time series models to identify and quantify causal interactions between dynamically interacting processes from observational data. The causal relationships between these processes can be effectively represented by a finite directed process graph - a graph that connects two processes whenever there is a direct delayed or simultaneous effect between them. Recent research has introduced a framework for quantifying frequency domain causal effects along paths on the process graph. This framework allows to identify how the spectral density of one process is contributing to the spectral density of another. In the current work, we characterise the asymptotic distribution of causal effect and spectral contribution estimators in terms of algebraic relations dictated by the process graph. Based on the asymptotic distribution we construct approximate confidence intervals and Wald type hypothesis tests for the estimated effects and spectral contributions. Under the assumption of causal sufficiency, we consider the class of differentiable estimators for frequency domain causal quantities, and within this class we identify the asymptotically optimal estimator. We illustrate the frequency domain Wald tests and uncertainty approximation on synthetic data, and apply them to analyse the impact of the 10 to 11 year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results confirm a significant effect of the solar cycle on the NAO at the 10 to 11 year time scale., Comment: 32 pages. Comments welcome!

A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) process is a linear causal model for variables that evolve over a discrete set of time points and between which there may be lagged and instantaneous effects. The qualitative causal structure of an SVAR process can be represented by its finite and directed process graph, in which a directed link connects two processes whenever there is a lagged or instantaneous effect between them. At the process graph level, the causal structure of SVAR processes is compactly parameterised in the frequency domain. In this paper, we consider the problem of causal discovery and causal effect estimation from the spectral density, the frequency domain analogue of the auto covariance, of the SVAR process. Causal discovery concerns the recovery of the process graph and causal effect estimation concerns the identification and estimation of causal effects in the frequency domain. We show that information about the process graph, in terms of $d$- and $t$-separation statements, can be identified by verifying algebraic constraints on the spectral density. Furthermore, we introduce a notion of rational identifiability for frequency causal effects that may be confounded by exogenous latent processes, and show that the recent graphical latent factor half-trek criterion can be used on the process graph to assess whether a given (confounded) effect can be identified by rational operations on the entries of the spectral density., Comment: 33 pages. Part I of the paper series is available at arXiv:2305.11561. Proposition 4 and the proofs of Proposition 4 and Theorem 5 have been changed in comparison to the previous version

We report the first detection of coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering (CEvNS) on germanium, measured at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The Ge-Mini detector of the COHERENT collaboration employs large-mass, low-noise, high-purity germanium spectrometers, enabling excellent energy resolution, and an analysis threshold of 1.5 keV electron-equivalent ionization energy. We observe a on-beam excess of 20.6$_{+7.1}^{-6.3}$ counts with a total exposure of 10.22 GWhkg and we reject the no-CEvNS hypothesis with 3.9 sigma significance. The result agrees with the predicted standard model of particle physics signal rate within 2 sigma., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures

Despite its potential, optical spectrum prediction for crystalline materials has been largely overlooked in machine learning for materials science. Here we present a proof of concept by creating a ab initio database of 9,915 dielectric tensors of semiconductors and insulators calculated in the independent particle approximation, and subsequently training graph attention neural networks to predict the dielectric function and refractive index. Our study shows that accurate prediction of optical spectra is possible using only the crystal structure and a database of about 10^4 materials.

State tomography allows to characterize quantum states, and was recently applied to reveal the dynamic magnetization state of a parametrically driven magnet. The identification of non-classical states, such as squeezed states, relies on a careful analysis of their emission and their distinction from thermal and vacuum fluctuations. A technique allowing to detect equilibrium magnetization fluctuations is a crucial first step in this regard. In this Letter, we show that inductive magnon noise spectroscopy (iMNS) allows to characterize the thermal magnetization fluctuations of a ferromagnetic thin film in a broadband coplanar waveguide-based scheme. Relative to a cold microwave background, the microwaves emitted by the equilibrium magnetization fluctuations can be detected via spectrum analysis. We provide a comprehensive picture of our microwave system by quantitatively modeling its response, including the thermalizing influence of the cables. The model allows for direct comparison to low-power broadband ferromagnetic resonance measurements with excellent agreement, corroborating the equilibrium character of the iMNS measurement by probing the linear response of the equilibrium state. Our work thus demonstrates broadband access to the equilibrium properties of magnetization fluctuations using a purely inductive approach., Comment: 6 pages and 4 figures; including Supplemental Material with 4 pages, 2 figures and 1 table

Routing problems are a common optimization problem in industrial applications, which occur on a large scale in supply chain planning. Due to classical limitations for solving NP-hard problems, quantum computing hopes to improve upon speed or solution quality. Several suggestions have been made for encodings of routing problems to solve them with variational quantum algorithms. However, for an end user it is hard to decide a priori which encoding will give the best solutions according to their needs. In this work, we investigate different encodings for the Travelling Salesperson Problem. We compare their scaling and performance when using the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm and the Variational Quantum Eigensolver and provide a clear guide for users when to choose which encoding. For small instances, we find evidence that the permutation encoding can yield good results since it does not suffer from feasibility issues., Comment: Accepted at IEEE QSW 2024

As privacy-centric changes reshape the digital advertising landscape, deterministic attribution and measurement of advertising-related user behavior is increasingly constrained. In response, there has been a resurgence in the use of traditional probabilistic measurement techniques, such as media and marketing mix modeling (m/MMM), particularly among digital-first advertisers. However, small and midsize businesses often lack the resources to implement advanced proprietary modeling systems, which require specialized expertise and significant team investments. To address this gap, marketing data scientists at Meta have developed the open-source computational package Robyn, designed to facilitate the adoption of m/MMM for digital advertising measurement. This article explores the computational components and design choices that underpin Robyn, emphasizing how it "packages up" m/MMM to promote organizational acceptance and mitigate common biases. As a widely adopted and actively maintained open-source tool, Robyn is continually evolving. Consequently, the solutions described here should not be seen as definitive or conclusive but as an outline of the pathways that the Robyn community has embarked on. This article aims to provide a structured introduction to these evolving practices, encouraging feedback and dialogue to ensure that Robyn's development aligns with the needs of the broader data science community.

The amount of light produced by nuclear recoils in scintillating targets is strongly quenched compared to that produced by electrons. A precise understanding of the quenching factor is particularly interesting for WIMP searches and CE{\nu}NS measurements since both rely on nuclear recoils, whereas energy calibrations are more readily accessible from electron recoils. There is a wide variation among the current measurements of the quenching factor in sodium iodide (NaI) crystals, especially below 10 keV, the energy region of interest for dark matter and CE{\nu}NS studies. A better understanding of the quenching factor in NaI(Tl) is of particular interest for resolving the decades-old puzzle in the field of dark matter between the null results of most WIMP searches and the claim for dark matter detection by the DAMA/LIBRA collaboration. In this work, we measured sodium and iodine quenching factors for five small NaI(Tl) crystals grown with similar thallium concentrations and growth procedures. Unlike previous experiments, multiple crystals were tested, with measurements made in the same experimental setup to control systematic effects. The quenching factors agree in all crystals we investigated, and both sodium and iodine quenching factors are smaller than those reported by DAMA/LIBRA. The dominant systematic effect was due to the electron equivalent energy calibration originating from the non-proportional behavior of the NaI(Tl) light yield at lower energies, potentially the cause for the discrepancies among the previous measurements., Comment: 22 pages, 27 figures, 7 tables. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2310.07339

Assessing the accuracy of the output of causal discovery algorithms is crucial in developing and comparing novel methods. Common evaluation metrics such as the structural Hamming distance are useful for assessing individual links of causal graphs. However, many state-of-the-art causal discovery methods do not output single causal graphs, but rather their Markov equivalence classes (MECs) which encode all of the graph's separation and connection statements. In this work, we propose additional measures of distance that capture the difference in separations of two causal graphs which link-based distances are not fit to assess. The proposed distances have low polynomial time complexity and are applicable to directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) as well as to maximal ancestral graph (MAGs) that may contain bidirected edges. We complement our theoretical analysis with toy examples and empirical experiments that highlight the differences to existing comparison metrics., Comment: Under review. The previous version of this preprint has been changed significantly including a title change

In causal models, a given mechanism is assumed to be invariant to changes of other mechanisms. While this principle has been utilized for inference in settings where the causal variables are observed, theoretical insights when the variables of interest are latent are largely missing. We assay the connection between invariance and causal representation learning by establishing impossibility results which show that invariance alone is insufficient to identify latent causal variables. Together with practical considerations, we use these theoretical findings to highlight the need for additional constraints in order to identify representations by exploiting invariance.

Accurate RNA secondary structure prediction is vital for understanding cellular regulation and disease mechanisms. Deep learning (DL) methods have surpassed traditional algorithms by predicting complex features like pseudoknots and multi-interacting base pairs. However, traditional distance measures can hardly deal with such tertiary interactions and the currently used evaluation measures (F1 score, MCC) have limitations. We propose the Weisfeiler-Lehman graph kernel (WL) as an alternative metric. Embracing graph-based metrics like WL enables fair and accurate evaluation of RNA structure prediction algorithms. Further, WL provides informative guidance, as demonstrated in an RNA design experiment., Comment: 12 pages, Accepted at the Machine Learning for Structural Biology Workshop, NeurIPS 2023

We consider the potential for a 10-kg undoped cryogenic CsI detector operating at the Spallation Neutron Source to measure coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering and its sensitivity to discover new physics beyond the standard model. Through a combination of increased event rate, lower threshold, and good timing resolution, such a detector would significantly improve on past measurements. We considered tests of several beyond-the-standard-model scenarios such as neutrino non-standard interactions and accelerator-produced dark matter. This detector's performance was also studied for relevant questions in nuclear physics and neutrino astronomy, namely the weak charge distribution of CsI nuclei and detection of neutrinos from a core-collapse supernova.

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale., Comment: To be published in the 37th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2023): Track on Datasets and Benchmarks. Project website: https://climateset.github.io/

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various assumptions that lead to identifiability of the underlying latent causal variables. A large corpus of these preceding approaches consider multi-environment data collected under different interventions on the causal model. What is common to virtually all of these works is the restrictive assumption that in each environment, only a single variable is intervened on. In this work, we relax this assumption and provide the first identifiability result for causal representation learning that allows for multiple variables to be targeted by an intervention within one environment. Our approach hinges on a general assumption on the coverage and diversity of interventions across environments, which also includes the shared assumption of single-node interventions of previous works. The main idea behind our approach is to exploit the trace that interventions leave on the variance of the ground truth causal variables and regularizing for a specific notion of sparsity with respect to this trace. In addition to and inspired by our theoretical contributions, we present a practical algorithm to learn causal representations from multi-node interventional data and provide empirical evidence that validates our identifiability results., Comment: Accepted for publication at CLeaR 2024

The increasing volume of data streams poses significant computational challenges for detecting changepoints online. Likelihood-based methods are effective, but a naive sequential implementation becomes impractical online due to high computational costs. We develop an online algorithm that exactly calculates the likelihood ratio test for a single changepoint in $p$-dimensional data streams by leveraging fascinating connections with computational geometry. This connection straightforwardly allows us to recover sparse likelihood ratio statistics exactly: that is assuming only a subset of the dimensions are changing. Our algorithm is straightforward, fast, and apparently quasi-linear. A dyadic variant of our algorithm is provably quasi-linear, being $\mathcal{O}(n\log(n)^{p+1})$ for $n$ data points and $p$ less than $3$, but slower in practice. These algorithms are computationally impractical when $p$ is larger than $5$, and we provide an approximate algorithm suitable for such $p$ which is $\mathcal{O}(np\log(n)^{\tilde{p}+1}), $ for some user-specified $\tilde{p} \leq 5.$ We derive some statistical guarantees for the proposed procedures in the Gaussian case, and confirm the good computational and statistical performance, and usefulness, of the algorithms on both empirical data and on NBA data., Comment: 41 pages,16 figures

Conditional independence testing (CIT) is a common task in machine learning, e.g., for variable selection, and a main component of constraint-based causal discovery. While most current CIT approaches assume that all variables are numerical or all variables are categorical, many real-world applications involve mixed-type datasets that include numerical and categorical variables. Non-parametric CIT can be conducted using conditional mutual information (CMI) estimators combined with a local permutation scheme. Recently, two novel CMI estimators for mixed-type datasets based on k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) have been proposed. As with any k-NN method, these estimators rely on the definition of a distance metric. One approach computes distances by a one-hot encoding of the categorical variables, essentially treating categorical variables as discrete-numerical, while the other expresses CMI by entropy terms where the categorical variables appear as conditions only. In this work, we study these estimators and propose a variation of the former approach that does not treat categorical variables as numeric. Our numerical experiments show that our variant detects dependencies more robustly across different data distributions and preprocessing types.

In recent years, a growing number of method and application works have adapted and applied the causal-graphical-model framework to time series data. Many of these works employ time-resolved causal graphs that extend infinitely into the past and future and whose edges are repetitive in time, thereby reflecting the assumption of stationary causal relationships. However, most results and algorithms from the causal-graphical-model framework are not designed for infinite graphs. In this work, we develop a method for projecting infinite time series graphs with repetitive edges to marginal graphical models on a finite time window. These finite marginal graphs provide the answers to $m$-separation queries with respect to the infinite graph, a task that was previously unresolved. Moreover, we argue that these marginal graphs are useful for causal discovery and causal effect estimation in time series, effectively enabling to apply results developed for finite graphs to the infinite graphs. The projection procedure relies on finding common ancestors in the to-be-projected graph and is, by itself, not new. However, the projection procedure has not yet been algorithmically implemented for time series graphs since in these infinite graphs there can be infinite sets of paths that might give rise to common ancestors. We solve the search over these possibly infinite sets of paths by an intriguing combination of path-finding techniques for finite directed graphs and solution theory for linear Diophantine equations. By providing an algorithm that carries out the projection, our paper makes an important step towards a theoretically-grounded and method-agnostic generalization of a range of causal inference methods and results to time series., Comment: 50 pages (including appendix), 9 figures

The nonlinear polaronic response of electrons solvated in liquid 2-propanol is studied by two-dimensional terahertz spectroscopy. Solvated electrons with a concentration of c$_e \approx$ 800 $\mu$M are generated by femtosecond photoionization of alcohol molecules. Electron relaxation to a localized ground state impulsively excites coherent polaron oscillations with a frequency of 3.9 THz. Off-resonant perturbation of the THz coherence by a pulse centered at 1.5 THz modifies the polaron oscillation phase. This nonlinear change of electron polarizability is reproduced by theoretical calculations., Comment: 5 pages, 4 Figs