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BACKGROUND: Assessment of suicide risk in individuals who have self-harmed is common in emergency departments, but is often based on tools developed for other purposes. OBJECTIVE: We developed and validated a predictive model for suicide following self-harm. METHODS: We used data from Swedish population-based registers. A cohort of 53 172 individuals aged 10+ years, with healthcare episodes of self-harm, was split into development (37 523 individuals, of whom 391 died from suicide within 12 months) and validation (15 649 individuals, 178 suicides within 12 months) samples. We fitted a multivariable accelerated failure time model for the association between risk factors and time to suicide. The final model contains 11 factors: age, sex, and variables related to substance misuse, mental health and treatment, and history of self-harm. Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis guidelines were followed for the design and reporting of this work. FINDINGS: An 11-item risk model to predict suicide was developed using sociodemographic and clinical risk factors, and showed good discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.78) and calibration in external validation. For risk of suicide within 12 months, using a 1% cut-off, sensitivity was 82% (75% to 87%) and specificity was 54% (53% to 55%). A web-based risk calculator is available (Oxford Suicide Assessment Tool for Self-harm or OxSATS). CONCLUSIONS: OxSATS accurately predicts 12-month risk of suicide. Further validations and linkage to effective interventions are required to examine clinical utility. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Using a clinical prediction score may assist clinical decision-making and resource allocation., Funding agencies:NIHR Community Healthcare MedTech and In Vitro Diagnostics Co-operative at Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust MIC-2016-018NIHR Applied Research Collaboration Oxford and Thames Valley at Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust

BACKGROUND: Cesarean delivery (CD) has been associated with postpartum psychiatric disorders, but less is known about the risk of suicidal behaviors. We estimated the incidence and risk of suicide attempts and deaths during the first postpartum year in mothers who delivered via CD v. vaginally. METHOD: All deliveries in Sweden between 1973 and 2012 were identified. The mothers were followed since delivery for 12 months or until the date of one of the outcomes (i.e. suicide attempt or death by suicide), death by other causes or emigration. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Of 4 016 789 identified deliveries, 514 113 (12.8%) were CDs and 3 502 676 (87.2%) were vaginal deliveries. During the 12-month follow-up, 504 (0.098%) suicide attempts were observed in the CD group and 2240 (0.064%) in the vaginal delivery group (risk difference: 0.034%), while 11 (0.0037%) deaths by suicide were registered in the CD group and 109 (0.0029%) in the vaginal delivery group (risk difference: 0.008%). Compared to vaginal delivery, CD was associated with an increased risk of suicide attempts [hazard ratio (HR) 1.46; 95% CI 1.32-1.60], but not of deaths by suicide (HR 1.44; 95% CI 0.88-2.36). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal suicidal behaviors during the first postpartum year were uncommon in Sweden. Compared to vaginal delivery, CD was associated with a small increased risk of suicide attempts, but not death by suicide. Improved understanding of the association between CD and maternal suicidal behaviors may promote more appropriate measures to improve maternal mental well-being and further reduce suicidal risks., Funding agency:China Scholarship Council 201707930002

Objective: An overlap of non-suicidal self-injuries (NSSIs) and suicide attempts (SAs) is observed in young cohorts, but there are few robust prospective studies for adults. We compared 1-year outcomes in adults with different self-harm patterns: NSSI only, NSSI + SA, and SA only. Methods: 793 patients (67% women) consecutively presenting with NSSI (17%) or SA (83%) at 3 Swedish hospitals took part in face-to-face interviews. Past and current self-harm was characterized by the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Clinical records and national register data were employed to determine 1-year outcomes. Results: At inclusion, over half of the participants had engaged in both NSSI and SA; 41% had SA only and 5%, NSSI only. During follow-up, non-fatal SAs were observed in approximately one-third of the total group (n = 269). Suicides occurred in 2% of those with NSSI + SA; the same proportion was seen in the SA only group. No suicides were observed in those with NSSI only. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, the NSSI + SA pattern was associated with a more than 3-fold risk of subsequent fatal/non-fatal suicidal behavior compared to "pure" NSSI; risk was not elevated in those with "pure" SA. Neither sex nor age group predicted subsequent suicidal behavior. Conclusions: Switching between behaviors with and without suicidal intent was common in this adult clinical cohort. Risk of subsequent suicidal behavior was tripled in the combined group. Clinicians who assess adults with NSSI must evaluate not only current but also previous episodes when assessing future risk of suicidal behavior.

PURPOSE: The Swedish National Quality Register for bipolar affective disorder, BipoläR, was established in 2004 to provide nationwide indicators for quality assessment and development in the clinical care of individuals with bipolar spectrum disorder. An ancillary aim was to provide data for bipolar disorder research. PARTICIPANTS: Inclusion criteria for registration in BipoläR is a diagnosis of bipolar spectrum disorder (ICD codes: F25.0, F30.1-F30.2, F30.8-F31.9, F34.0) and treatment at an outpatient clinic in Sweden. BipoläR collects data from baseline and annual follow-up visits throughout Sweden. Data is collected using questionnaires administered by healthcare staff. The questions cover sociodemographic, diagnostic, treatment, outcomes and patient reported outcome variables. The register currently includes 39 583 individual patients with a total of 75 423 baseline and follow-up records. FINDINGS TO DATE: Data from BipoläR has been used in several peer-reviewed publications. Studies have provided knowledge on effectiveness, side effects and use of pharmacological and psychological treatment in bipolar disorder. In addition, findings on the diagnosis of bipolar disorder, risk factors for attempted and completed suicide and health economics have been reported. The Swedish Bipolar Collection project has contributed to a large number of published studies and provides important information on the genetic architecture of bipolar disorder, the impact of genetic variation on disease characteristics and treatment outcome. FUTURE PLANS: Data collection is ongoing with no fixed end date. Currently, approximately 5000 new registrations are added each year. Cohort data are available via a formalised request procedure from Centre of Registers Västra Götaland (e-mail: registercentrum@vgregion.se). Data requests for research purposes require an entity responsible for the research and an ethical approval.

BACKGROUND: Despite a reported high rate of mental disorders in refugees, scientific knowledge on their risk of suicide attempt and suicide is scarce. We aimed to investigate (1) the risk of suicide attempt and suicide in refugees in Sweden, according to their country of birth, compared with Swedish-born individuals and (2) to what extent time period effects, socio-demographics, labour market marginalisation (LMM) and morbidity explain these associations. METHODS: Three cohorts comprising the entire population of Sweden, 16-64 years at 31 December 1999, 2004 and 2009 (around 5 million each, of which 3.3-5.0% refugees), were followed for 4 years each through register linkage. Additionally, the 2004 cohort was followed for 9 years, to allow analyses by refugees' country of birth. Crude and multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. The multivariate models were adjusted for socio-demographic, LMM and morbidity factors. RESULTS: In multivariate analyses, HRs regarding suicide attempt and suicide in refugees, compared with Swedish-born, ranged from 0.38-1.25 and 0.16-1.20 according to country of birth, respectively. Results were either non-significant or showed lower risks for refugees. Exceptions were refugees from Iran (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.41) for suicide attempt. The risk for suicide attempt in refugees compared with the Swedish-born diminished slightly across time periods. CONCLUSIONS: Refugees seem to be protected from suicide attempt and suicide relative to Swedish-born, which calls for more studies to disentangle underlying risk and protective factors.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is associated with high risk of suicide. It is yet unknown whether OCD and suicidal behaviors coaggregate in families and, if so, what are the mechanisms underlying this coaggregation. In a population-based birth cohort and family study, we linked individuals born in Sweden in 1967-2003 (n = 3,594,181) to their parents, siblings, and cousins, and collected register-based diagnoses of OCD, suicide attempts, and deaths by suicide and followed them until December 31, 2013. We also applied quantitative genetic modeling to estimate the contribution of genetic and environmental factors to the familial coaggregation of OCD and suicidal behavior. An elevated risk of suicide attempts was observed across all relatives of individuals with OCD, increasing proportionally to the degree of genetic relatedness, with odds ratios (OR) ranging from 1.56 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-1.63) in parents to 1.11 (95% CI 1.07-1.16) in cousins. The risk of death by suicide also increased alongside narrowing genetic distance, but was only significant in parents (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.40-1.72) and full siblings (OR 1.80; 95% CI 1.43-2.26) of individuals with OCD. Familial coaggregation of OCD and suicide attempts was explained by additive genetic factors (60.7%) and non-shared environment (40.4%), with negligible contribution of shared environment. Similarly, familial coaggregation with death by suicide was attributed to additive genetics (65.8%) and nonshared environment (34.2%). Collectively, these observations indicate that OCD and suicidal behaviors coaggregate in families largely due to genetic factors. The contribution of unique environment is also considerable, providing opportunities to target high-risk groups for prevention and treatment.

Background: How suicide risk should be assessed is under discussion with arguments for both actuarial and clinical approaches. The aim of the present study was to compare the predictive accuracy of a clinical suicide risk assessment to that of the Suicide Intent Scale (SIS) in predicting suicide within one year of an episode of self-harm with or without suicidal intent. Methods: Prospective clinical study of 479 persons assessed in a psychiatric emergency department after an episode of self-harm. The clinical risk assessment and the SIS rating were made independently of each other. Suicides within one year were identified in the National Cause of Death Register. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed, optimal cut-offs were identified and accuracy statistics were calculated. Results: Of 479 participants, 329 (68.7%) were women. The age range was 18-95 years. During one-year follow up, 14 participants died by suicide. The area under the curve (AUC) for the clinical risk assessment and the SIS score were very similar, as were the accuracy statistic measures at the optimal cut-offs of the respective methods. The positive predictive value (PPV) of each assessment method was 6%. Limitations: The clinical suicide risk assessment is not standardized. The number of suicides is small, not allowing for stratification by e.g. gender or diagnosis. Conclusion: Predictive accuracy was similar for a clinical risk assessment and the SIS, and insufficient to guide treatment allocation.