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Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

Large defects on the face after Mohs surgery have posed significant reconstructive challenges. A 90-year-old man presented with melanoma in situ of the central forehead, which resulted in a 4.5cmx4.3cm defect after multiple stages of Mohs surgery. Although different approaches for forehead repair with nasal root involvement are possible, we demonstrate that the V-Y advancement flap and subsequent Burrow graft for nasal root repair represents a viable closure technique for large circular defects of the central forehead.

Background: Tattooing is a widespread practice and has increased in popularity over time. Many lesions have been described in relation to tattoos, including malignant tumors. Objectives: The primary goal of this review is to determine whether the frequency of published cases of skin cancers within tattoos has been increasing over time. Methods: Our review is in adherence to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and reporting criteria. The databases MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase via Elsevier, and Scopus via Elsevier were searched from inception to February 23, 2023. No data or publication date limits were imposed. Results: Our review identified 160 cases of cutaneous tumors arising within tattoos. An increase in published cases over time was observed. Most reported tumors developed within red tattoo pigment (36.9%), with the largest contribution by squamous cell carcinoma and keratoacanthoma lesions. Limitations: There was a lack of consistency of information in published case reports which limited the scope of our analysis. Small sample size was also a limitation of this review. Conclusions: With the increased popularity of tattoos, it is helpful to continue reporting cases of cutaneous malignancies within tattoos. Awareness of the frequency and severity of tumors within tattoos may be communicated to the public.

Abstract Background Injurious falls represent a significant public health burden. Research and policies have primarily focused on falls occurring indoors despite evidence that outdoor falls account for 47–58% of all falls requiring some medical attention. This study described the clinical trauma severity of indoor versus outdoor injurious falls requiring Emergency Medical Services (EMS) response. Methods Using the 2019 National Emergency Medical Services Information System (NEMSIS) dataset, we identified the location of patients injured from falls that required EMS response. We classified injury severity using (1) the Revised Trauma Score for Triage (T-RTS): ≤ 11 indicated the need for transport to a Trauma Center; (2) Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS): ≤ 8 and 9–12 indicated severe and moderate neurologic injury; and (3) patient clinical acuity by EMS: Dead, Critical, Emergent, Low. Results Of 1,854,909 encounters for patients with injurious falls, the vast majority occurred indoors (n = 1,596,860) compared to outdoors (n = 152,994). For patients who fell indoors vs outdoors on streets or sidewalks, the proportions were comparable for moderate or severe GCS scores (3.0% vs 3.9%), T-RTS scores indicating need for transport to a Trauma Center (5.2% vs 5.9%) and EMS acuity rated as Emergent or Critical (27.7% vs 27.1%). Injurious falls were more severe among male patients compared to females and males injured by falling on streets or sidewalks had higher percentages for moderate or severe GCS scores (5.2% vs 1.9%) and T-RTS scores indicating the need for transport to a Trauma Center (7.3% vs 3.9%) compared to falling indoors. Young and middle-aged patients who fell on streets or sidewalks had higher proportions for a T-RTS score indicating the need for Trauma Center care compared to those in this subgroup who fell indoors. Yet older patients injured by falling indoors were more likely to have a T-RTS score indicating the need for transport to a Trauma Center than older patients who fell on streets or sidewalks. Conclusions There was a similar proportion of patients with severe injurious falls that occurred indoors and outdoors on streets or sidewalks. These findings suggest the need to determine outdoor environmental risks for outdoor falls to support location-specific interventions.

Many cities have promoted nightlife or entertainment districts – concentrations of restaurants, bars, and other entertainment-related businesses – in order to revitalize declining neighborhoods. While entertainment districts can boost economic growth, they can also contribute to public health risks including violent crime, traffic accidents, and other harms. With data from the National Establishment Time Series (NETS) business database, we developed methods to use SaTScan cluster detection software to identify entertainment districts, and applied the method in a case-study of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Using SaTScan, we identified and mapped 101 spatial clusters of entertainment businesses in the city. Our approach is scalable and does not require prior local knowledge about entertainment areas. The results add to a small but growing literature about the use of SaTScan to map neighborhood features. Placing entertainment districts in spatial context can inform how the built environment might amplify or minimize the potential health risks of these districts.

ABSTRACTEarly life gut microbiome composition has been correlated with childhood obesity, though microbial functional contributions to disease origins remain unclear. Here, using an infant birth cohort (n = 349) we identify a distinct fecal microbiota composition in 1-month-old infants with the lowest rate of exclusive breastfeeding, that relates with higher relative risk for obesity and overweight phenotypes at two years. Higher-risk infant fecal microbiomes exhibited accelerated taxonomic and functional maturation and broad-ranging metabolic reprogramming, including reduced concentrations of neuro-endocrine signals. In vitro, exposure of enterocytes to fecal extracts from higher-risk infants led to upregulation of genes associated with obesity and with expansion of nutrient sensing enteroendocrine progenitor cells. Fecal extracts from higher-risk infants also promoted enterocyte barrier dysfunction. These data implicate dysregulation of infant microbiome functional development, and more specifically promotion of enteroendocrine signaling and epithelial barrier impairment in the early-life developmental origins of childhood obesity.

BackgroundThe majority of people living with HIV in the United States are men who have sex with men (MSM), with race- and ethnicity-based disparities in HIV rates and care continuum. In order to uncover the neighborhood- and network-involved pathways that produce HIV care outcome disparities, systematic, theory-based investigation of the specific and intersecting neighborhood and social network characteristics that relate to the HIV care continuum must be engaged. ObjectiveUsing socioecological and intersectional conceptual frameworks, we aim to identify individual-, neighborhood-, and network-level characteristics associated with HIV care continuum outcomes (viral suppression, retention in care, and antiretroviral adherence) among MSM living with HIV in New York City. MethodsIn the longitudinal cohort study, we assess 3 neighborhoods of potential influence (residential, social, and health care access activity spaces) using Google Earth. We investigate the influence of neighborhood composition (eg, concentrated poverty and racial segregation) and four neighborhood-level characteristics domains: (1) community violence, physical disorder, and social disorganization (eg, crime rates and housing vacancy); (2) alcohol and other drug use; (3) social norms (eg, homophobia and HIV stigma); and (4) community resources (eg, social services and public transit access). We test theoretical pathways of influence, including stress or coping, stigma or resilience, and access to resources, across the different neighborhoods in which MSM live, socialize, and receive HIV care. At each visit, we locate each participant’s reported activity spaces (ie, neighborhoods of potential influence) and collect individual-level data on relevant covariates (including perceptions of or exposure to neighborhoods) and social network inventory data on the composition, social support, and perceived social norms. The outcomes are HIV viral suppression, retention in care, and antiretroviral adherence. These data are combined with an existing, extensive geospatial database of relevant area characteristics. Spatial analysis and multilevel modeling are used to test the main theory-driven hypotheses and capture independent neighborhood-level and network-level effects and changes over time. ResultsThe study began enrollment in March 2019 and concluded visits in December 2023, with a total of 327 participants enrolled. The median age was 44.1 (SD 11.5) years. Almost all participants self-identified as cisgender men (n=313, 98.1%) and as gay, homosexual, or bisexual (n=301, 94.4%). Overall, 192 (60.1%) participants identified as non-Hispanic Black, and 81 (25.3%) identified as Hispanic. Most (n=201, 63%) reported at least occasional difficulty in meeting basic needs (eg, rent and food) in the past 6 months. The mean number of years living with HIV was 15.4 (SD 10.1). ConclusionsThis study will have direct implications for the design of multilevel interventions, addressing factors at the neighborhood, network, and individual levels. Results may inform urban planning and program design to improve HIV care outcomes for MSM, particularly for Black and Latino MSM living in urban areas. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)PRR1-10.2196/64358

Background: Societal changes during the COVID-19 pandemic may affect childrens health behaviors and exacerbate disparities. This study aimed to describe childrens health behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic, how they vary by sociodemographic characteristics, and the extent to which parent coping strategies mitigate the impact of pandemic-related financial strain on these behaviors. Methods: This study used pooled data from 50 cohorts in the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes Program. Children or parent proxies reported sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviors, and parent coping strategies. Results: Of 3315 children aged 3-17 years, 49% were female and 57% were non-Hispanic white. Children of parents who reported food access as a source of stress were 35% less likely to engage in a higher level of physical activity. Children of parents who changed their work schedule to care for their children had 82 fewer min/day of screen time and 13 more min/day of sleep compared with children of parents who maintained their schedule. Parents changing their work schedule were also associated with a 31% lower odds of the child consuming sugar-sweetened beverages. Conclusions: Parents experiencing pandemic-related financial strain may need additional support to promote healthy behaviors. Understanding how changes in parent work schedules support shorter screen time and longer sleep duration can inform future interventions.

Abstract Background The accessibility of pharmacies has been associated with overall health and wellbeing. Past studies have suggested that low income and racial minority communities are underserved by pharmacies. However, the literature is inconsistent in finding links between area-level income or racial and ethnic composition and access to pharmacies. Here we aim to assess area-level spatial access to pharmacies across New York State (NYS), hypothesizing that Census Tracts with higher poverty rates and higher percentages of Black and Hispanic residents would have lower spatial access. Methods The population weighted mean shortest road network distance (PWMSD) to a pharmacy in 2018 was calculated for each Census Tract in NYS. This statistic was calculated from the shortest road network distance to a pharmacy from the centroid of each Census block within a tract, with the mean across census blocks weighted by the population of the census block. Cross-sectional analyses were conducted to assess links between Tract-level socio demographic characteristics and Tract-level PWMSD to a pharmacy. Results Overall the mean PWMSD to a pharmacy across Census tracts in NYS was 2.07 Km (SD = 3.35, median 0.85 Km). Shorter PWMSD to a pharmacy were associated with higher Tract-level % poverty, % Black/African American (AA) residents, and % Hispanic/Latino residents and with lower Tract-level % of residents with a college degree. Compared to tracts in the lowest quartile of % Black/AA residents, tracts in the highest quartile had a 70.7% (95% CI 68.3–72.9%) shorter PWMSD to a pharmacy. Similarly, tracts in the highest quartile of % poverty had a 61.3% (95% CI 58.0-64.4%) shorter PWMSD to a pharmacy than tracts in the lowest quartile. Conclusion The analyses show that tracts in NYS with higher racial and ethnic minority populations and higher poverty rates have higher spatial access to pharmacies.

The last 12 months have provided further evidence of the potential for cascading ecological and socio-political crises that were warned of 12 months ago. Then a consensus statement from the Regional Action on Climate Change Symposium warned: "the Earth's climatic, ecological, and human systems are converging towards a crisis that threatens to engulf global civilization within the lifetimes of children now living." Since then, the consequences of a broad set of extreme climate events (notably droughts, floods, and fires) have been compounded by interaction with impacts from multiple pandemics (including COVID-19 and cholera) and the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, new connections are becoming visible between climate change and human health, large vulnerable populations are experiencing food crises, climate refugees are on the move, and the risks of water, food, and climate disruption have been visibly converging and compounding. Many vulnerable populations now face serious challenges to adapt. In light of these trends, this year, RACC identifies a range of measures to be taken at global and regional levels to bolster the resilience of these populations in the face of such emerging crises. In particular, at all scales, there is a need for globally available local data, reliable analytic techniques, community capacity to plan adaptation strategies, and the resources (scientific, technical, cultural, and economic) to implement them. To date, the rate of growth of the support for climate change resilience lags behind the rapid growth of cascading and converging risks. As an urgent message to COP27, it is proposed that the time is now right to devote much greater emphasis, global funding, and support to the increasing adaptation needs of vulnerable populations.

Nirmatrelvir-ritonivir (Paxlovid) recently received emergency use authorization for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Literature has linked numerous cutaneous adverse effects to nirmatrelvir and ritonavir, the copackaged tablets within Paxlovid. A review and comparison of these adverse effects to the common cutaneous manifestations of COVID-19 is provided. Numerous drug-to-drug interactions exist between nirmatrelvir-ritonivir and commonly-used medications within dermatology.

Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two-parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain-hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude-longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

Abstract Background Climate change has been identified as one of the biggest threats to human health. Despite this claim, there are no standardized tools that assess the rigor of published literature for use in weight of evidence (WOE) reviews. Standardized assessment tools are essential for creating clear and comparable WOE reviews. As such, we developed a standardized tool for evaluating the quality of climate change and health studies focused on evaluating studies that quantify exposure-response relationships and studies that implement and/or evaluate adaptation interventions. Methods The authors explored systematic-review methodology to enhance transparency and increase efficiency in summarizing and synthesizing findings from studies on climate change and health research. The authors adapted and extended existing WOE methods to develop the CHANGE (Climate Health ANalysis Grading Evaluation) tool. The resulting assessment tool has been refined through application and subsequent team input. Results The CHANGE tool is a two-step standardized tool for systematic review of climate change and health studies of exposure-response relationships and adaptation intervention studies. Step one of the CHANGE tool aims to classify studies included in weight-of-evidence reviews and step two assesses the quality and presence of bias in the climate change and health studies. Conclusion The application of the CHANGE tool in WOE reviews of climate change and health will lead to increased comparability, objectivity, and transparency within this research area.

Much neuroimaging research has explored the neural mechanisms underlying successful cognitive aging. Two different patterns of functional activation, maintenance of youth-like activity and compensatory novel recruitment, have been proposed to represent different brain functional features underlying individual differences in cognitive aging. In this study, we investigated the functional features in individuals across the adult lifespan who appeared to resist age-related cognitive decline, in comparison to those with typical age-related declines, over the course of four years. We first implemented latent mixture modeling, a data-driven approach, to classify participants as successful and average agers in middle-aged, young-old, and very old groups, based on their baseline and longitudinal cognitive performance. Then, using fMRI with a subsequent memory paradigm at the follow-up visit, brain activation specifically related to successful encoding (i.e., subsequent memory effect: subsequently remembered with high confidence > subsequently forgotten) was compared between people who established successful cognitive aging versus average aging in the three age groups. Several differences in the subsequent memory effect were revealed. First, across core task-related regions commonly used during successful encoding, successful agers exhibited high subsequent memory effect, at a level comparable to the young control group, until very old age; in contrast, average agers showed reduced subsequent memory effect, compared to successful agers, beginning in young-old age when memory performance also reduced in average agers, compared to successful agers. Second, additional recruitment in prefrontal clusters, distant from the core task-related regions, were identified in the left superior frontal and right orbitofrontal cortices in successful agers of young-old age, possibly reflecting functional compensation in successful aging. In summary, successful agers demonstrate a pattern of youth-like activation spanning from middle age to young-old age, as well as novel frontal recruitment in young-old age. Overall, our study demonstrated evidence of two neural patterns related to successful cognitive aging, offering an integrated view of functional features underlying successful aging, and suggests the importance of studying individuals across the lifespan to understand brain changes occurring in mid and early-late life.

Contract cheating -- students outsourcing assignments to ghost-writers and submitting it as their own -- is an issue facing tertiary education institutions globally. Approximately 3% to 11% of higher education students may engage on contract cheating. Understanding why nearly 90% of students do "not" engage in contract cheating is as important as understanding why other students "do," as it can aid in the development of effective interventions and policies. This study addressed limitations in previous research and built upon a measure of Reasons for Not Contract Cheating (RNCC). In this study, 403 university students participated in an online survey consisting of a revised version of the Reasons for Not Contract Cheating measure (RNCC-R) and measures of psychological individual differences, such as the dark triad personality traits, self-control, and autonomy. Two higher-order factors and six sub-factors were identified in the RNCC-R, which included some similarities to the original RNCC. The findings from this study demonstrate the importance of psychological individual differences, such as satisfaction of the need for autonomy, grit (perseverance of effort), and Machiavellianism, in predicting the reasons why students do "not" engage in contract cheating. Consistent with previous research, this study provides support for the importance of students' motivation for learning, and their perceived morals and norms, as reasons for not engaging in contract cheating. It additionally provides evidence of the importance of the academic environment, such as respect for academic staff, as a reason why students do "not" engage in contract cheating.

This paper presents the design process of a Danish educational virtual reality (VR) application for alcohol prevention. Denmark is one on the countries in Europe with the highest alcohol consumption among adolescents. Alcohol abuse is a risk factor for a variety of diseases and contributes as a significant factor to motor vehicle accidents. The application offers first-hand experiences with alcohol in a safe environment. This is done by simulating a party situation using 125 different 360-degree movie sequences and displaying it in a virtual reality headset. The users create their own experience through a choose your own adventure game experience. The experience is designed to acquire skills for recognizing and handling peer pressure, which has been found to be one of the main reasons for drinking initiation. These skills are acquired though experimental learning. The application is a product of a co-design process involving 10 students (aged 18-28) studying film making and game design at Askov Folk High School (a special kind of Danish boarding school without exams for young adults), Denmark, their teachers, alcohol experts from social services and researchers with expertise within health promotion, social marketing, VR, interaction design and game development. Additionally, 35 students from Askov Boarding School (aged 15-17) participated as actors and extras. This article contributes to research within development of 360-degree video applications for experimental learning with a practical example. The iterative design process of the application, containing exploration of key concepts, concept design, prototype design, pre-usability testing, innovation design and usability test is described, as well as our reflections on virtual experimental learning in the application.

Background: Obesity disproportionately affects marginalized and low-income populations. Birth parent obesity from the prenatal period and childhood has been associated with child obesity. It is unknown whether prenatal or postnatal birth parent obesity has differential effects on subsequent changes in adiposity and metabolic health in children. Objectives: We evaluated how birth parent obesity 7 y after delivery was associated with child body composition changes and cardiometabolic health in midchildhood and further assessed the influence of the perinatal and postpartum period on associations. Methods: Black and Dominican pregnant individuals were enrolled, and dyads (n = 319) were followed up at child age 7 and 9 y. Measures included, height, weight, waist circumference (WC), and percent body fat (BF%). Multiple linear regression was used to relate postpartum weight status with child outcomes accounting for attrition, and a series of secondary analyses were conducted with additional adjustment for perinatal weight status, gestational weight gain (GWG), and/or long-term weight retention to evaluate how these factors influenced associations. Results: Almost one-quarter (23%) of birth parents and 24.1% children were classified with obesity at child age 7 y, while at 9 y, 30% of children had obesity. Birth parent obesity at child age 7 y was associated with greater changes, from ages 7 to 9 y, in child BMI z-score (β: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.24) and BF% (β: 1.15; 95% CI: 0.22, 2.09) but not obesity at age 9 y. All observed associations crossed the null after additional adjustment for prenatal factors. Conclusions: Birth parent obesity at 7-y postpartum is associated with greater gains in child BMI z-score and BF% in midchildhood. These associations diminish after accounting for prenatal size, suggesting a lasting impact of the perinatal environment and that interventions supporting families from the prenatal period through childhood are needed.

Abstract Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori‐Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non‐Poisson” power‐law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de‐clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

Summary: The manifestation of metabolic deteriorations that accompany overweight and obesity can differ greatly between individuals, giving rise to a highly heterogeneous population. This inter-individual variation can impede both the provision and assessment of nutritional interventions as multiple aspects of metabolic health should be considered at once. Here, we apply the Mixed Meal Model, a physiology-based computational model, to characterize an individual’s metabolic health in silico. A population of 342 personalized models were generated using data for individuals with overweight and obesity from three independent intervention studies, demonstrating a strong relationship between the model-derived metric of insulin resistance (ρ = 0.67, p

Abstract: The earthquake cycle of stress accumulation and release is associated with the elastic rebound hypothesis proposed by H.F. Reid following the M7.9 San Francisco earthquake of 1906. However, observing details of the actual values of time- and space-dependent tectonic stress is not possible at the present time. In two previous papers, we have proposed methods to image the earthquake cycle in California by means of proxy variables. These variables are based on correlations in patterns of small earthquakes that occur nearly continuously in time. The purpose of the present paper is to compare these two methods by evaluating their information content using decision thresholds and Receiver Operating Characteristic methods together with Shannon information entropy. Using seismic data from 1940 to present in California, we find that both methods provide nearly equivalent information on the rise and fall of earthquake correlations associated with major earthquakes in the region. We conclude that the resulting timeseries can be viewed as proxies for the cycle of stress accumulation and release associated with major tectonic activity. Article Highlights: The current state of the earthquake cycle of tectonic stress accumulation and release is unobservableWe review two methods for visualizing the current state of the earthquake cycle from correlation in small earthquake patternsMachine learning techniques indicate that signals in a correlation time series corresponding to future large earthquakes can be detected

ObjectiveA mother-child dyad trajectory model of weight and body composition spanning from conception to adolescence was developed to understand how early life exposures shape childhood body composition.MethodsAfrican American (49.3%) and Dominican (50.7%) pregnant mothers (n = 337) were enrolled during pregnancy, and their children (47.5% female) were followed from ages 5 to 14. Gestational weight gain (GWG) was abstracted from medical records. Child weight, height, percentage body fat, and waist circumference were measured. GWG and child body composition trajectories were jointly modeled with a flexible latent class model with a class membership component that included prepregnancy BMI.ResultsFour prenatal and child body composition trajectory patterns were identified, and sex-specific patterns were observed for the joint GWG-postnatal body composition trajectories with more distinct patterns among girls but not boys. Girls of mothers with high GWG across gestation had the highest BMI z score, waist circumference, and percentage body fat trajectories from ages 5 to 14; however, boys in this high GWG group did not show similar growth patterns.ConclusionsJointly modeled prenatal weight and child body composition trajectories showed sex-specific patterns. Growth patterns from childhood though early adolescence appeared to be more profoundly affected by higher GWG patterns in females, suggesting sex differences in developmental programming.

RationaleAsthma and obesity often co-occur. It has been hypothesized that asthma may contribute to childhood obesity onset.ObjectivesTo determine if childhood asthma is associated with incident obesity and examine the role of asthma medication in this association.MethodsWe studied 8,716 children between ages 6 and 18.5 years who were nonobese at study entry participating in 18 US cohorts of the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes program (among 7,299 children with complete covariate data mean [SD] study entry age = 7.2 [1.6] years and follow up = 5.3 [3.1] years).Measurements and main resultsWe defined asthma based on caregiver report of provider diagnosis. Incident obesity was defined as the first documented body mass index ≥95th percentile for age and sex following asthma status ascertainment. Over the study period, 26% of children had an asthma diagnosis and 11% developed obesity. Cox proportional hazards models with sex-specific baseline hazards were fitted to assess the association of asthma diagnosis with obesity incidence. Children with asthma had a 23% (95% confidence intervals [CI] = 4, 44) higher risk for subsequently developing obesity compared with those without asthma. A novel mediation analysis was also conducted to decompose the total asthma effect on obesity into pathways mediated and not mediated by asthma medication use. Use of asthma medication attenuated the total estimated effect of asthma on obesity by 64% (excess hazard ratios = 0.64; 95% CI = -1.05, -0.23).ConclusionsThis nationwide study supports the hypothesis that childhood asthma is associated with later risk of obesity. Asthma medication may reduce this association and merits further investigation as a potential strategy for obesity prevention among children with asthma.

Dermatologists serve a vast array of patients with unique backgrounds. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) designated members of sexual and gender minorities as underrepresented in scholarly literature. Our study examines the past 10 years of studies published in highly-cited dermatologic journals, surveying each study for common data collection of sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) in dermatological studies. We found representation of sexual and gender minorities to be increasing in dermatological studies but recommend that SOGI data be collected regularly just as any other common variable in dermatological patient studies.

GeoGateway (http://geo-gateway.org) is a web-based interface for analysis and modeling of geodetic imaging data and to support response to related disasters. Geodetic imaging data product currently supported by GeoGateway include Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) daily position time series and derived velocities and displacements and airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) from NASA's UAVSAR platform. GeoGateway allows users to layer data products in a web map interface and extract information from various tools. Extracted products can be downloaded for further analysis. GeoGateway includes overlays of California fault traces, seismicity from user selected search parameters, and user supplied map files. GeoGateway also provides earthquake nowcasts and hazard maps as well as products created for related response to natural disasters. A user guide is present in the GeoGateway interface. The GeoGateway development team is also growing the user base through workshops, webinars, and video tutorials. GeoGateway is used in the classroom and for research by experts and non-experts including by students.

Background: Health promotion programs and interventions are designed to encourage behavioral changes in children, encouraging them to make safe and healthy life choices. This systematic review seeks to examine how social impact is measured in primary school health promotion interventions. Method: A systematic search and review process was used to identify and examine primary school health promotion interventions. The PRISMA guidelines were followed to source articles from 6 electronic databases reporting school health promotion programs or interventions in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, or the United Kingdom. Results: A total of 77 studies were located, representing 55 health promotion interventions delivered in primary school settings. Of these interventions, only 8 (15%) measured or attempted to measure social impact, whereas another 8 (15%) alluded to social impact. The predominant theories reported were social based theories (theories which examine the social influences on people, environments, and behaviors) (n = 17, 59%), with almost a third not informed by an overt health promotion framework or model (n = 34, 59%). A systematic rating system identified some level of stakeholder engagement (n = 30, 53%). Conclusions: This systematic review highlights the need for social impact measurement within health promotion to illuminate the role of school programs in delivering lasting change.

ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to describe the association of individual-level characteristics (sex, race/ethnicity, birth weight, maternal education) with child BMI within each US Census region and variation in child BMI by region.MethodsThis study used pooled data from 25 prospective cohort studies. Region of residence (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) was based on residential zip codes. Age- and sex-specific BMI z scores were the outcome.ResultsThe final sample included 14,313 children with 85,428 BMI measurements, 49% female and 51% non-Hispanic White. Males had a lower average BMI z score compared with females in the Midwest (β = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.19 to -0.05) and West (β = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.20 to -0.04). Compared with non-Hispanic White children, BMI z score was generally higher among children who were Hispanic and Black but not across all regions. Compared with the Northeast, average BMI z score was significantly higher in the Midwest (β = 0.09, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.14) and lower in the South (β = -0.12, 95% CI: -0.16 to -0.08) and West (β = -0.14, 95% CI: -0.19 to -0.09) after adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and birth weight.ConclusionsRegion of residence was associated with child BMI z scores, even after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics. Understanding regional influences can inform targeted efforts to mitigate BMI-related disparities among children.

A promising tsunami warning system outlined here links Total Electron Content (TEC) disturbances in the ionosphere detected by GNSS satellites to maps of inundated areas along the affected coastlines. This will be accomplished through a pipeline of earthquake, ionosphere, and tsunami simulations. The focus of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of our tsunami simulator for use in this simulation pipeline. The simulator we have developed is called Tsunami Squares, a computationally inexpensive program that employs a unique method of propagating water according to shallow water theory. Unlike other wave simulators, Tsunami Squares can easily propagate waves from sea to land, allowing flooded areas along the coast to be mapped. To validate its accuracy, a comparison is made to the Regional Ocean Modeling System tsunami simulator, which solves the Navier Stokes equations directly using a finite-difference method. The two simulation techniques show good agreement when compared over the 2011 Japan event and the 2010 Chile event. In addition, examples of inundation plots are displayed here to demonstrate its capability for such a warning system.