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This paper compares the characteristics of those experiencing short spells of low income with those having longer spells. Data from the 1984 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) was examined. It was found that short spells--less than six months--are quite common, and make up a substantial proportion of all poverty spells. About 30 percent of the population as a whole has at least one month with an income of less than the poverty level (adjusted to a monthly basis) over an observable period of 16 months. About half of those entering poverty leave within the first three months, and about 80 percent leave within six months. The probability of leaving poverty was highly related to the probability that someone in the family would begin earning again in the near future. Specifically, families with a member who had recently become unemployed were particularly likely to leave poverty quickly, since most unemployed persons with previous earnings find re-employment fairly rapidly. Conversely, those who were less likely to have earnings in the recent past--female-headed families (especially with children) and the elderly--were more likely to have longer spells of poverty. Those seen to be poor on a cross-sectional basis contained a larger proportion of longer-spell cases than did the cohort of poverty entrants, although even those poor on a cross-sectional basis were in the midst of a spell that lasted less than six months. Age and racial differences in poverty duration are discussed. Data are presented on nine tables. A list of references is included. (BJV)

This report examines participation rates in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program. TRIM2, a microsimulation model that simulated the eligibility and benefit rules of the AFDC program on a state-by-state basis, showed that there had been a dramatic decline after 1981 in the rate at which AFDC families were applying for and receiving benefits. This phenomenon was caused by the change in the coding of subfamilies (adults who live with children but are not their biological parents) by the Census Bureau on the Current Population Survey, which is the basic input file used to compute eligibility. There was no massive behavioral change on the part of AFDC eligibles in the early 1980s: between 150,000 and 400,000 subfamilies (depending on the year) were omitted from the eligibility estimates between 1967 and 1980. Comparative analyses of the AFDC program that encompass the period before and after the coding change might be impaired by the impact of the change. Participation rates are much lower than previously believed, and are perhaps not at a saturation level. Analysis of trends in the characteristics of AFDC eligibles from 1979 to 1984 reveal the following changes after 1980: (1) more subfamily and family heads were likely to be black, female, young and never married; (2) more family and subfamily heads lived in higher income households and contributed to a lower percentage of household income; and (3) more subfamily heads had a child under 6 years of age. Implications for policy and research are discussed. Data are presented on 14 tables and figures. A bibliography is included. (BJV)

This report reviews the impact of the categorical eligibility provision of the Food Security Act of 1985 (FSA) on the program participation, administrative costs, and error rates of the Food Stamp Program (FSP). The Act automatically granted eligibility for the FSP to households composed entirely of participants in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) programs. The following primary conclusions are reported: (1) while total participation is very unlikely to be substantially increased, some specific types of households may gain eligibility; (2) there is some potential for impact on administrative costs, but further research is needed to determine the magnitude and direction of these effects; and (3) any reduction in error rates will be the indirect result of increases in the amount of caseworker time available for each case, rather than a direct result of the provisions themselves. Recommendations for further research are suggested. Six tables of statistical data are included. A 27-item bibliography is appended. (FMW)