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IntroductionWomen living with HIV experience heightened risk of cervical cancer, and over 50% of cases in Southern Africa are attributed to HIV co-infection. Cervical cancer interventions tailored by HIV status delivered with HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) for treatment can decrease cancer incidence, but impact on HIV-related disparities remains understudied.MethodsUsing a dynamic model calibrated to KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we projected HIV prevalence, cervical cancer incidence, and proportion of cancer cases among women living with HIV between 2021-2071. Relative to the status quo of moderate intervention coverage, we modeled three additive scenarios: 1) ART scale-up only; 2) expanded human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, screening, and treatment; and 3) catch-up HPV vaccination and enhanced screening for women living with HIV.ResultsUnder the status quo, HIV prevalence among women aged 15+ decreased from a median of 35% [Uncertainty Range (UR): 26-42%] in 2021 to 25% [19-34%] in 2071. The proportion of cervical cancer cases that were women living with HIV declined from 73% [63-86%] to 58% [47-74%], but incidence remained 4.3-fold [3.3-5.7] that of women without HIV. ART scale-up reduced HIV prevalence in 2071, but increased the incidence rate ratio to 5.2 [3.7-7.3]. Disparities remained after expanding cancer interventions for all women (incidence rate ratio: 4.8 [3.6-7.6]), while additional catch-up HPV vaccination and screening for women living with HIV decreased the incidence rate ratio to 2.7 [1.9-3.4] in 2071.ConclusionsTailored cervical cancer interventions for women living with HIV can counteract rising cancer incidence incurred by extended life expectancy on ART and reduce disparate cancer burden.

Household-based tuberculosis (TB) contact evaluation may be an efficient strategy to reach people who could benefit from oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) because of the epidemiological links between HIV and TB. This study estimated the number of HIV serodifferent couples in TB-affected households and potential HIV acquisitions averted through their PrEP use in 4 TB-HIV high-burden countries. We conducted a model-based analysis set in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, and Uganda using parameters from population-based household surveys, systematic literature review and meta-analyses, and estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We parameterized the nonlinear relationship between the proportion of serodifferent couples among people living with HIV and population-level HIV prevalence using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We integrated all parameters in a mathematical model and propagated uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach. We estimated the HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 living in TB-affected households to be higher than in the general population in all 4 countries. The proportion of serodifferent couples among all couples in TB-affected households was also higher than in the general population (South Africa: 20.7% vs. 15.7%, Kenya: 15.7% vs. 5.7%, Uganda: 14.5% vs. 6.0%, Ethiopia: 4.1% vs. 0.8%). We estimated that up to 1,799 (95% UI: 1,256-2,341) HIV acquisitions in South Africa could be prevented annually by PrEP use in serodifferent couples in TB-affected households, 918 (95% UI: 409-1,450) in Kenya, 686 (95% UI: 505-871) in Uganda, and 408 (95% UI: 298-522) in Ethiopia. As couples in TB-affected households are more likely to be serodifferent than couples in the general population, offering PrEP during household TB contact evaluation may prevent a substantial number of HIV acquisitions.

Measuring empowerment is critical to understanding the level of control adolescents and young adults (AYA) have over their sexual and reproductive health (SRH) behaviors, and could provide a key window into addressing their unique SRH needs. We adapted the Sexual and Reproductive Empowerment (SRE) scale for AYA for use in an East African context. This multi-method qualitative study sampled 15-23 year-old female adolescents and young adults in Kisumu, Kenya. We conducted in-depth interviews (n = 30) and analyzed transcripts with an inductive, constant comparison approach. Empowerment domains were integrated with Kabeer's (1999) framework in a conceptual model, which we referenced to revise the original and develop new scale items. Items underwent expert review, and were condensed and translated through team-based consensus-building. We evaluated content validity in cognitive interviews (n = 25), during which item phrasing and word choice were revised to generate an adapted SRE scale. Participants (n = 55) had a median age of 18 (range 16-23), and 75% were under 19 years. We categorize three types of adaptations to the SRE scale: new item generation, item revision, and translation/linguistic considerations. We developed nine new items reflecting AYA's experiences and new domains of empowerment that emerged from the data; new domains relate to self-efficacy in accessing sexual and reproductive health care, and how material needs are met. All items were revised and translated to echo concepts and language relevant to participants, navigating the multilingualism common in many African countries. Centering the voices of female Kenyan AYA, this study provides insight into measuring the latent construct of adolescent sexual and reproductive empowerment in an East African setting, and supports the adapted SRE scale's content validity for Kenya. We detail our multi-method, theory-driven approach, contributing to limited methods guidance for measure adaptation across contexts and among diverse adolescent populations.

Community-based delivery and monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV has the potential to increase viral suppression for individual- and population-level health benefits. However, the cost-effectiveness and budget impact are needed for public health policy. We used a mathematical model of HIV transmission in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to estimate population prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2020 to 2060 for two scenarios: 1) standard clinic-based HIV care and 2) five-yearly home testing campaigns with community ART for people not reached by clinic-based care. We parameterised model scenarios using observed community-based ART efficacy. Using a health system perspective, we evaluated incremental cost-effectiveness and net health benefits using a threshold of $750/DALY averted. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied the discount rate; time horizon; costs for clinic and community ART, hospitalisation, and testing; and the proportion of the population receiving community ART. Uncertainty ranges (URs) were estimated across 25 best-fitting parameter sets. By 2060, community ART following home testing averted 27.9% (UR: 24.3-31.5) of incident HIV infections, 27.8% (26.8-28.8) of HIV-related deaths, and 18.7% (17.9-19.7) of DALYs compared to standard of care. Adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years experienced the greatest reduction in incident HIV (30.7%, 27.1-34.7). In the first five years (2020-2024), community ART required an additional $44.9 million (35.8-50.1) annually, representing 14.3% (11.4-16.0) of the annual HIV budget. The cost per DALY averted was $102 (85-117) for community ART compared with standard of care. Providing six-monthly refills instead of quarterly refills further increased cost-effectiveness to $78.5 per DALY averted (62.9-92.8). Cost-effectiveness was robust to sensitivity analyses. In a high-prevalence setting, scale-up of decentralised ART dispensing and monitoring can provide large population health benefits and is cost-effective in preventing death and disability due to HIV.

Summary: Background: Cervical cancer incidence is high in Kenya due to HIV and limited access to cancer prevention services. Human papillomavirus (HPV) has been shown to increase HIV acquisition; however, the potential impact of HPV vaccination on HIV is unknown. We modeled the health impact of HPV vaccination in the context of the HIV epidemiology in Kenya. Methods: Using a validated compartmental transmission model of HIV and HPV set in Kenya, we evaluated five scenarios of nonavalent HPV vaccination: single-age-vaccination of 10-year-old girls at 90% coverage; multi-age-cohort (MAC) vaccination of 10-14-year-old girls at 90% coverage; MAC plus moderate-coverage (50%) catch-up vaccination of 15-24-year-old women; MAC plus high-coverage (80%) catch-up of 15-24-year-old women; and MAC plus catch-up of 15-44-year-old women at 80% coverage (HPV-FASTER). We compared cervical cancer incidence, HIV prevalence, and cumulative cervical cancer and HIV cases averted after 50 years to a baseline scenario without vaccination. In all scenarios, we assumed the UNAIDS 90-90-90 goal for HIV treatment is attained by 2030. Findings: In 2021, model-estimated cervical cancer incidence is 44/100,000 and HIV prevalence among women is 6·5%. In 2070, projected cancer incidence declines to 27/100,000 and HIV prevalence reaches 0·3% without vaccination. With single-age-vaccination, cancer incidence in 2070 is reduced by 68%, averting 64,529 cumulative cancer cases. MAC vaccination reduces cancer incidence by 75%, averting 206,115 cancer cases. Moderate and high-coverage catch-up and HPV-FASTER reduce cancer incidence by 80%, 82%, and 84%, averting 254,930, 278,690, and 326,968 cancer cases, respectively. In all scenarios, HIV prevalence in 2070 is reduced by a relative 8-11%, with 15,609-34,981 HIV cases averted after 50 years. Interpretation: HPV vaccination can substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence in Kenya in the next 50 years, particularly if women up to age 24 are vaccinated. HIV treatment scale-up can also alleviate cervical cancer burden. However, HPV vaccination has modest additional impact on HIV when antiretroviral therapy coverage is high. Funding: National Institutes of Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Background: Cost is an essential component of economic evaluations and a determinant of implementation feasibility of human papillomavirus (HPV) self-sampling programmes. Yet, reliable evidence that can be used in low-income and middle-income countries, where cervical cancer burden is highest, remains scarce. Here, we estimate the total and unit costs associated with the Hope Project, a community-based HPV self-sampling social entrepreneurship programme in the peri-urban area of Lima, Peru. Methods: We conducted a micro-costing analysis from the programme perspective to determine the unit costs of: (1) recruitment and training of community leaders (known as Hope Ladies); and (2) Hope Ladies distributing HPV self-sampling kits (named careHPV) in their communities. A procedural manual was used to identify the programme's activities. A structured questionnaire was administered, and in-depth interviews were conducted with three programme administrators to estimate the resource use for each activity and time associated with intervention delivery. Laboratory materials (disposable and durable) and equipment were also costed. We obtained unit costs for each input previously identified from programme budgets and expenditure reports from Nov 1, 2018, to Dec 30, 2019. Findings: The annual cost per community leader recruited and trained was US$86·21 (2019 USD); cost per HPV self-sampling kit distributed was $39·44. The cost per HPV-positive woman identified was $328·54; and the cost per woman who received the intervention was $49·38. Personnel and laboratory costs represented 47% and 28% of programmatic costs, respectively. During the study period (Nov 1, 2018, to Dec 30, 2019), the programme recruited and trained 62 Hope Ladies, who distributed 4882 HPV self-sampling kits to women in their communities. Of the screened women, 586 (12%) tested positive for HPV. Interpretation: Community-based HPV self-sampling appears to be a feasible way to improve cervical cancer screening coverage. These findings can be used as the basis for economic evaluations, such as a cost-effectiveness analysis, or to model the scaling of the intervention. Funding: Thomas Francis Jr Fellowship.

IntroductionOral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is increasingly being implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) in Kenya contribute more than half of all new infections among young people aged 15-24 years, highlighting the need for evidence on the cost of PrEP in real-world implementation to inform the budget impact, cost-effectiveness, and financial sustainability of PrEP programs.MethodsWe estimated the cost of delivering PrEP to AGYW enrolled in a PrEP implementation study in two family planning clinics in Kisumu county, located in western Kenya. We derived total annual costs and the average cost per client-month of PrEP by input type (variable or fixed) and visit type (initiation or follow-up). We estimated all costs as implemented in the study, and under implementation by the Kenyan Ministry of Health (MoH), both at the program volume observed and if the facilities were delivering PrEP at full capacity (scaled-MoH).ResultsFor the costing period between March 2018 and March 2019, 615 HIV-negative women contributed 1,128 (502 initiation and 626 follow-up) visits. The average cost per client-month of PrEP dispensed per study protocol and per the MoH scenario was $28.92 and $14.52, respectively. If the MoH scaled the program so that facilities could see PrEP clients at capacity, the average cost per client-month of PrEP was $10.88. Medication costs accounted for the largest proportion of the total annual costs (48% in MoH scenario and 65% in the scaled-MoH scenario).ConclusionsUsing data from a PrEP implementation program, we found that the cost per client-month of PrEP dispensed is reduced by 62% if PrEP delivery at the two clinics is scaled up by the MoH. Our findings are valuable for informing local resource allocation and budgetary cost projections for scale-up of PrEP delivery to AGYW. Additionally, previous cost-effectiveness studies have been limited by the use of fixed assumptions of the cost of PrEP per person-month. Our study provides cost estimates from practical data which will better inform cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses.

BACKGROUND:Women with HIV have an elevated risk of HPV infection, and eventually, cervical cancer. Tanzania has a high burden of both HIV and cervical cancer, with an HIV prevalence of 5.5% in women in 2018, and a cervical cancer incidence rate among the highest globally, at 59.1 per 100,000 per year, and an estimated 9,772 cervical cancers diagnosed in 2018. We aimed to quantify the impact that interventions intended to control HIV have had and will have on cervical cancer in Tanzania over a period from 1995 to 2070. METHODS:A deterministic transmission-dynamic compartment model of HIV and HPV infection and natural history was used to simulate the impact of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), anti-retroviral therapy (ART), and targeted pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on cervical cancer incidence and mortality from 1995-2070. FINDINGS:We estimate that VMMC has prevented 2,843 cervical cancer cases and 1,039 cervical cancer deaths from 1995-2020; by 2070 we predict that VMMC will have lowered cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates by 28% (55.11 cases per 100,000 women in 2070 without VMMC, compared to 39.93 with VMMC only) and 26% (37.31 deaths per 100,000 women in 2070 without VMMC compared to 27.72 with VMMC), respectively. We predict that ART will temporarily increase cervical cancer diagnoses and deaths, due to the removal of HIV death as a competing risk, but will ultimately further lower cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates by 7% (to 37.31 cases per 100,000 women in 2070) and 5% (to 26.44 deaths per 100,000 women in 2070), respectively, relative to a scenario with VMMC but no ART. A combination of ART and targeted PrEP use is anticipated to lower cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates to 35.82 and 25.35 cases and deaths, respectively, per 100,000 women in 2070. CONCLUSIONS:HIV treatment and control measures in Tanzania will result in long-term reductions in cervical cancer incidence and mortality. Although, in the near term, the life-extending capability of ART will result in a temporary increase in cervical cancer rates, continued efforts towards HIV prevention will reduce cervical cancer incidence and mortality over the longer term. These findings are critical background to understanding the longer-term impact of achieving cervical cancer elimination targets in Tanzania.

BackgroundMany regions of sub-Saharan Africa experience a high prevalence of both schistosomiasis and HIV-1, leading to frequent coinfection. Higher plasma HIV-1 viral loads are associated with faster disease progression and genital HIV-1 loads are a primary determinant of HIV-1 transmission risk. We hypothesized that schistosome infection would be associated with higher HIV-1 viral loads in plasma and genital samples.Methods/principal findingsWe utilized data from individuals who HIV-1 seroconverted while enrolled in one of four prospective cohort studies. Plasma and genital viral loads collected 4-24 months after the estimated date of HIV-1 acquisition, but prior to antiretroviral therapy initiation, were included. Detection of circulating anodic antigen in archived blood samples, collected prior to HIV-1 seroconversion, identified participants with active schistosomiasis; immunoblots determined the schistosome species causing infection. Our analysis included 370 HIV-1 seroconverters with plasma viral load results, of whom 82 (22%) had schistosomiasis. We did not find a statistically significant association between schistosomiasis and higher HIV-1 set point plasma viral loads (-0.17 log10 copies/ml, 95% CI -0.38 to 0.03); S. mansoni infection was associated with a lower set point (-0.34 log10 copies/ml, 95% CI -0.58 to -0.09). We found no association between schistosomiasis and cervical (+0.07 log10 copies/swab, 95% CI -0.20 to 0.34) or vaginal (+0.11 log10 copies/swab, 95% CI -0.17 to 0.39) set point viral loads; S. haematobium infection was associated with lower cervical viral loads (-0.59 log10 copies/swab, 95% CI -1.11 to -0.06).Conclusions/significanceThese results do not support the hypotheses that schistosome coinfection increases plasma or genital HIV-1 viral loads.

BACKGROUND:The number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in need of treatment monitoring in low-and-middle-income countries has been rapidly expanding, placing an increasing burden on laboratories. Promising new point-of-care (POC) test have the potential to reduce laboratory workloads, but the implementation cost is uncertain. We sought to estimate the costs of decentralized POC testing compared to centralized laboratory testing for PLHIV initiating treatment in South Africa. METHODS:We conducted a microcosting analyses comparing clinic-based POC testing to centralized laboratory testing for HIV viral load, creatinine, and CD4 count monitoring. We completed time-and-motion studies to assess staff time for sample collection and processing. Instrument costs were estimated assuming five-year lifespans and we applied a 3% annual discount rate. Total costs and cost per patient were estimated over a five-year period: the first year of ART initiation and four years of routine HIV monitoring, following World Health Organization ART monitoring guidelines. RESULTS:We estimated that per-patient costs of POC HIV viral load, CD4, and creatinine tests were USD $25, $11, and $9, respectively, assuming a clinic volume of 50 patients initiated per month. At centralized laboratories, per-patient costs of POC HIV viral load, CD4, and creatinine tests were USD $26, $6, $3. Total monitoring costs of all testing over a 5-year period was $45 higher for POC testing compared to centralized laboratory testing ($210 vs $166). CONCLUSIONS:POC testing for HIV care and treatment can be feasibly implemented within clinics in South Africa, particularly those with larger patient volumes. POC HIV viral load costs are similar to lab-based testing while CD4 count and creatinine testing are more costly as POC tests. Our cost estimates are useful to policymakers in planning resource allocation and can inform cost-effectiveness analyses of POC testing.

In a Perspective, Ruanne Barnabas and Connie Celum discuss the implications of the accompanying Link4Health and Engage4Health studies for HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Monica Sharma and colleagues discuss evidence-based approaches to improving HIV services for men in sub-Saharan Africa.

Introduction The successes of HIV treatment scale‐up and the availability of new prevention tools have raised hopes that the epidemic can finally be controlled and ended. Reduction in HIV incidence and control of the epidemic requires high testing rates at population levels, followed by linkage to treatment or prevention. As effective linkage strategies are identified, it becomes important to understand how these strategies work. We use qualitative data from The Linkages Study, a recent community intervention trial of community‐based testing with linkage interventions in sub‐Saharan Africa, to show how lay counsellor home HIV testing and counselling (home HTC) with follow‐up support leads to linkage to clinic‐based HIV treatment and medical male circumcision services. Methods We conducted 99 semi‐structured individual interviews with study participants and three focus groups with 16 lay counsellors in Kabwohe, Sheema District, Uganda. The participant sample included both HIV+ men and women (N=47) and HIV‐uncircumcised men (N=52). Interview and focus group audio‐recordings were translated and transcribed. Each transcript was summarized. The summaries were analyzed inductively to identify emergent themes. Thematic concepts were grouped to develop general constructs and framing propositional statements. Results Trial participants expressed interest in linking to clinic‐based services at testing, but faced obstacles that eroded their initial enthusiasm. Follow‐up support by lay counsellors intervened to restore interest and inspire action. Together, home HTC and follow‐up support improved morale, created a desire to reciprocate, and provided reassurance that services were trustworthy. In different ways, these functions built links to the health service system. They worked to strengthen individuals’ general sense of capability, while making the idea of accessing services more manageable and familiar, thus reducing linkage barriers. Conclusions Home HTC with follow‐up support leads to linkage by building “social bridges,” interpersonal connections established and developed through repeated face‐to‐face contact between counsellors and prospective users of HIV treatment and male circumcision services. Social bridges link communities to the service system, inspiring individuals to overcome obstacles and access care.

Introduction Antiretroviral therapy (ART) prevents HIV transmission within HIV serodiscordant couples (SDCs), but slow implementation and low uptake has limited its impact on population‐level HIV incidence. Home HIV testing and counselling (HTC) campaigns could increase ART uptake among SDCs by incorporating couples’ testing and ART referral. We estimated the reduction in adult HIV incidence achieved by incorporating universal ART for SDCs into home HTC campaigns in KwaZulu‐Natal (KZN), South Africa, and southwestern (SW) Uganda. Methods We constructed dynamic, stochastic, agent‐based network models for each region. We compared adult HIV incidence after 10 years under three scenarios: (1) “Current Practice,” (2) “Home HTC” with linkage to ART for eligible persons (CD4

Introduction Hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV infection frequently co‐occur due to shared transmission routes. Co‐infection is associated with higher HCV viral load (VL), but less is known about the effect of HCV infection on HIV VL and risk of onward transmission. Methods We undertook a systematic review comparing 1) HIV VL among ART‐naïve, HCV co‐infected individuals versus HIV mono‐infected individuals and 2) HIV VL among treated versus untreated HCV co‐infected individuals. We performed a random‐effects meta‐analysis and quantified heterogeneity using the I2 statistic. We followed Cochrane Collaboration guidelines in conducting our review and PRISMA guidelines in reporting results. Results and discussion We screened 3925 articles and identified 17 relevant publications. A meta‐analysis found no evidence of increased HIV VL associated with HCV co‐infection or between HIV VL and HCV treatment with pegylated interferon‐alpha‐2a/b and ribavirin. Conclusions This finding is in contrast to the substantial increases in HIV VL observed with several other systemic infections. It presents opportunities to elucidate the biological pathways that underpin epidemiological synergy in HIV co‐infections and may enable prediction of which co‐infections are most important to epidemic control.

INTRODUCTION:Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A), triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART) during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B), or lifelong ART (Option B+). The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates. MATERIALS AND METHODS:We constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1) current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2) current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3) high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART) at current coverage. RESULTS:At current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results. DISCUSSION:Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels) in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda's higher fertility rates.

Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components.We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%.Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10-15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components.High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations.

Vital registration and cause of death reporting is incomplete in the countries in which the HIV epidemic is most severe. A reliable tool that is independent of HIV status is needed for measuring the frequency of AIDS deaths and ultimately the impact of antiretroviral therapy on mortality.A verbal autopsy questionnaire was administered to caregivers of 381 adults of known HIV status who died between 1998 and 2003 in Manicaland, eastern Zimbabwe. Individuals who were HIV positive and did not die in an accident or during childbirth (74%; n = 282) were considered to have died of AIDS in the gold standard. Verbal autopsies were randomly allocated to a training dataset (n = 279) to generate classification criteria or a test dataset (n = 102) to verify criteria. A rule-based algorithm created to minimise false positives had a specificity of 66% and a sensitivity of 76%. Eight predictors (weight loss, wasting, jaundice, herpes zoster, presence of abscesses or sores, oral candidiasis, acute respiratory tract infections, and vaginal tumours) were included in the algorithm. In the test dataset of verbal autopsies, 69% of deaths were correctly classified as AIDS/non-AIDS, and it was not necessary to invoke a differential diagnosis of tuberculosis. Presence of any one of these criteria gave a post-test probability of AIDS death of 0.84.Analysis of verbal autopsy data in this rural Zimbabwean population revealed a distinct pattern of signs and symptoms associated with AIDS mortality. Using these signs and symptoms, demographic surveillance data on AIDS deaths may allow for the estimation of AIDS mortality and even HIV prevalence.

BACKGROUND: Candidate human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have demonstrated almost 90%-100% efficacy in preventing persistent, type-specific HPV infection over 18 mo in clinical trials. If these vaccines go on to demonstrate prevention of precancerous lesions in phase III clinical trials, they will be licensed for public use in the near future. How these vaccines will be used in countries with national cervical cancer screening programmes is an important question. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a transmission model of HPV 16 infection and progression to cervical cancer and calibrated it to Finnish HPV 16 seroprevalence over time. The model was used to estimate the transmission probability of the virus, to look at the effect of changes in patterns of sexual behaviour and smoking on age-specific trends in cancer incidence, and to explore the impact of HPV 16 vaccination. We estimated a high per-partnership transmission probability of HPV 16, of 0.6. The modelling analyses showed that changes in sexual behaviour and smoking accounted, in part, for the increase seen in cervical cancer incidence in 35- to 39-y-old women from 1990 to 1999. At both low (10% in opportunistic immunisation) and high (90% in a national immunisation programme) coverage of the adolescent population, vaccinating women and men had little benefit over vaccinating women alone. We estimate that vaccinating 90% of young women before sexual debut has the potential to decrease HPV type-specific (e.g., type 16) cervical cancer incidence by 91%. If older women are more likely to have persistent infections and progress to cancer, then vaccination with a duration of protection of less than 15 y could result in an older susceptible cohort and no decrease in cancer incidence. While vaccination has the potential to significantly reduce type-specific cancer incidence, its combination with screening further improves cancer prevention. CONCLUSIONS: HPV vaccination has the potential to significantly decrease HPV type-specific cervical cancer incidence. High vaccine coverage of women alone, sustained over many decades, with a long duration of vaccine-conferred protection, would have the greatest impact on type-specific cancer incidence. This level of coverage could be achieved through national coordinated programmes, with surveillance to detect cancers caused by nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types.

Abstract Background Significant gaps remain in HIV testing and counseling (HTC) in family planning (FP) clinics. To address these gaps, our group tested an implementation strategy called the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach (SAIA), an evidenced-based multi-component implementation strategy focused on improving entire care cascades. In a cluster randomized trial of 24 FP clinics in Mombasa County, Kenya, SAIA led to a significant increase in HTC in intervention clinics compared to control clinics. The objective of this manuscript was to evaluate SAIA using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) and assess the Implementation Outcomes Framework outcomes of acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility. Methods This qualitative assessment was nested within the cluster-randomized trial. Data collection included questionnaires to assess modifiable and non-modifiable health system factors related to HTC and in-depth interviews to query clinic norms, priorities, communication strategies, and readiness for change. The primary outcomes of interest were feasibility, appropriateness, and acceptability of SAIA. Data on inner setting and structural characteristics of FP clinics were collected to inform how context may impact outcomes. All interviews were recorded and analyzed using a rapid assessment approach. Results Of the 12 intervention clinics, 6 (50%) were public facilities. Availability of resources varied by clinic. Most clinics had a positive implementation climate, engaged leadership, and access to resources and information. While not all clinics identified HTC as a clinic priority, most reported a strong culture of embracing change and recognition of the importance of HIV testing within FP clinics. Interviews highlighted very high acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility of SAIA. The implementation strategy was not complicated and fit well into existing clinic processes. In particular, staff appreciated that SAIA allowed clinic staff to generate contextually relevant solutions that they implemented. Conclusions SAIA was implemented in FP clinics of varying sizes, capacity, and management support and was found to be acceptable, appropriate, and feasible. The agency that clinic staff felt in proposing and implementing their own solutions was likely part of SAIA’s success. We anticipate this will continue to be a mechanism of SAIA’s success when it is scaled up to more clinics in future trials. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02994355) registered 16 December 2016.

Background: South Africa currently has the greatest number of people with HIV globally. The country has not yet met its 95-95-95 goals, with different gaps in the HIV care cascade for women and men. This paper reports on a protocol to pilot test a couple-based intervention designed to improve women's antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence and men's engagement in care in heterosexual couples living in the Vulindlela area of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Study goals are two-fold: (1) assess the acceptability, feasibility, and fidelity of the experimental intervention, START Together, and (2) collect efficacy data on START Together for women's ART adherence, men's engagement in HIV care, and the couple's relationship functioning. Methods: Women (N = 20) who were not engaged with ART adherence (defined via self-reported ART difficulties, record of missed clinic visits, or viral non-suppression) are the target patients; male partners are not required to know or disclose their HIV status to be part of the study. Couples are randomized 1:1 to the experimental treatment (START Together) or treatment as usual (referrals to the local clinic to support ART adherence or any other HIV-related care). START Together is a 5-session intervention based in cognitive-behavioral couple therapy, which is a skill-based intervention focusing on communication and problem-solving skills, and Life Steps, a problem-solving intervention identifying barriers and solutions to medication adherence. Couples are assessed at baseline, post-treatment (8 weeks post-randomization), and follow-up (12 weeks post-randomization). Conclusion: This study will provide preliminary implementation and efficacy data on whether this novel approach has potential to improve women and men's HIV and healthcare-related needs.

Abstract An unprecedented volume of research has been generated in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there are risks of inefficient duplication and of important work being impeded if efforts are not synchronized. Excessive reliance on observational studies, which can be more rapidly conducted but are inevitably subject to measured and unmeasured confounders, can foil efforts to conduct rigorous randomized trials. These challenges are illustrated by recent global efforts to conduct clinical trials of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) as a strategy for preventing COVID-19. Innovative strategies are needed to help overcome these issues, including increasing communication between the Data Safety and Monitoring Committees (DSMCs) of similar trials. It is important to reinforce the primacy of high-quality trials in generating unbiased answers to pressing prevention and treatment questions about COVID-19.

Background: Despite high efficacy of oral antiretroviral therapy (ART), viral suppression among adolescents and young adults (AYA) living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains low. Compared to daily oral ART, bimonthly long-acting injectable ART (LA-ART) may simplify adherence, improve clinical outcomes, and decrease HIV transmission in this priority population. However, LA-ART will likely cost more than oral ART and the cost threshold at which LA-ART will be cost effective in SSA has not been evaluated. Methods: We adapted a mathematical model of HIV transmission and progression in Kenya to include HIV acquisition and viral suppression among AYA (age 10–24). We projected the population-level health and economic impact of providing LA-ART to AYA over a 10-year time horizon assuming oral ART costs of US$233 annually and a two-month duration of viral suppression per LA-ART injection. We calculated the maximum cost at which switching from oral to LA-ART would be considered cost-effective, using thresholds of $500 and $1,508 per disability-adjusted life year averted (WHO's threshold of HIV treatment interventions and Kenya's gross domestic product per capita). Findings: Assuming 85% of AYA switch from oral to injectable formulations, LA-ART is estimated to prevent 40,540 infections and 20,480 deaths over 10 years. The maximum increase in the annual per-person cost of receiving LA-ART is estimated to be $89 and $236 for LA-ART to be cost-effective under the thresholds of $500 and $1,508 per DALY averted, respectively. The cost threshold was lower when non-adherent oral ART AYA users were assumed to be less likely to switch to LA-ART. Interpretation: Providing LA-ART to AYA can be cost-effective in Kenya if it is less than twice the cost of oral ART. Long-acting injectable ART for priority populations with low viral suppression has the potential to cost-effectively avert disability and death. Funding: National Institutes of Health (R01 HD085807; PI: Kohler)

Alternative dosing schedules for licensed human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccines, particularly single dose and extended intervals between doses (>12 months), are being considered to address vaccine shortages and improve operational flexibility. We searched PUBMED/MEDLINE for publications reporting immunogenicity data following administration of one of the licensed HPV vaccines (2vHPV, 4vHPV, and 9vHPV) to females aged 9–26 years. We conducted non-inferiority analyses comparing alternative to standard schedules using mixed effects meta-regression controlling for baseline HPV status and disaggregated by vaccine, subtype, time point, and age group (9–14 and 15–26 years). Non-inferiority was defined as the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval (CI) for the geometric mean titer (GMT) ratio being greater than 0.5. Our search returned 2464 studies, of which 23 were included in data analyses. When evaluated against standard schedules, although robust immunogenicity was demonstrated across all multi-dose groups, non-inferiority of extended interval dosing was mixed across vaccines, subtypes, and time points. Single dose did not meet the criteria for non-inferiority in any comparisons. Sparse data limited the number of possible comparisons, and further research is warranted.

Voluntary medical male circumcision (MMC) reduces risk of HIV infection, but uptake remains suboptimal among certain age groups and locations in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed qualitative data as part of the Linkages Study, a randomized controlled trial to evaluate community-based HIV testing and follow-up as interventions promoting linkage to HIV treatment and prevention in Uganda and South Africa. Fifty-two HIV-negative uncircumcised men participated in the qualitative study. They participated in semistructured individual interviews exploring (a) home HTC experience; (b) responses to test results; (c) efforts to access circumcision services; (d) outcomes of efforts; (e) experiences of follow-up support; and (f) local HIV education and support. Interviews were audio-recorded, translated, transcribed, and summarized into “linkage summaries.” Summaries were analysed inductively to identify the following three thematic experiences shaping men’s circumcision choices: (1) intense relief upon receipt of an unanticipated seronegative diagnosis, (2) the role of peer support in overcoming fear, and (3) anticipation of missed economic productivity. Increased attention to the timing of demand creation activities, to who delivers information about the HIV prevention benefits of MMC, and to the importance of missed income during recovery as a barrier to uptake promises to strengthen and sharpen future MMC demand creation strategies.