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PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, EPTD; Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM); Transformation Strategies, Economic statistics are frequently produced at an administrative level such as the sub-national division. However, these measures may lack sufficient local variation in the economic activities to analyze local economic development patterns and the exposure to natural hazards. Agriculture GDP is a critical indicator for measurement of the primary sector, on which more than 2.5 billion people depend on their livelihoods that provide a key source of income for the entire household (FAO, 2021). Through a data fusion method based on cross-entropy optimization, this paper disaggregates national and subnational administrative statistics of Agricultural GDP into a global gridded dataset at approximately 10 x 10 kilometers using satellite-derived indicators of the components that make up agricultural GDP, namely crop, livestock, fishery, hunting and timber production. The paper estimates the exposure of areas with at least one extreme drought during 2000 to 2009 to agricultural GDP is an estimated US$432 billion of agricultural GDP circa 2010, where nearly 1.2 billion people live. The data are available on the World Bank Development Data Hub (DOI: http://doi.org/10.57966/0j71-8d56; IFPRI and World Bank, 2022).

Non-PR, IFPRI2; Prioritizing agricultural investments; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all, EPTD, Despite progresses made over the last several decades, the prevalence of child malnutrition re-mains alarmingly high. About 149 million children under the age of five years old were stunted (too short for their age) in 2018, of which 55% and 39% lived in Asia and Africa, respectively. Malnourished children, especially stunted ones, may never achieve their full cognitive and non-cognitive potential with implications for their educational and labor market performance among other things. Malnutrition results from several interlinked factors operating at child, parental, household, and landscape level such as inadequate maternal nutrition before and during pregnancy and at the time of lactation, suboptimal breastfeeding practices, lack of nutritious complementary foods, and unhealthy living environments. This study analyzes the correlates of child undernutrition in rural Africa South of the Sahara (SSA) – a region with the least progress in tackling undernutrition.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP4; Advancing Research on Nutrition and Agriculture (ARENA); 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD; EPTD; A4NH, CGIAR Research Programs on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH), Supply chains for nutritious (“protective”) foods in Africa south of the Sahara are often poorly developed, especially for perishable crops that are vulnerable to wastage. We used LSMS-ISA surveys and geographic information system (GIS) data to explore which factors predict production patterns of four protective food crops (pulses, nuts and seeds, vegetables, and fruits) relative to cereals and starchy roots and tubers (grouped under staples) in Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda, with a focus on potential inter-ventions to improve production, trade, and consumption of these foods. Plot-level irrigation adoption is the strongest predictor of fruit and vegetable production, along with precipitation, suggesting that water availability is a major precondition for pro-ducing these protective foods. In contrast, pulses and nuts and seeds can be grown in drier and warmer conditions. Better market access is also associated with higher production of fruits and vegetables, but the association is weaker than that of water access. Investing in and expanding irrigation-especially small-scale irrigation-has strong poten-tial to yield high returns in East Africa, especially for poor households that cannot afford to invest in capital-intensive irrigation technologies. Irrigation investments may need to be complemented by investments in roads, rural elec-trification, and cold storage chains to promote efficiency of postharvest supply chains and reduce marketing costs.

PR, IFPRI3; DCA; ISI; CRP2; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture (Big Data); CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Data on global agricultural production are usually available as statistics at administrative units, which does not give any diversity and spatial patterns; thus they are less informative for subsequent spatially explicit agricultural and environmental analyses. In the second part of the two-paper series, we introduce SPAM2010 – the latest global spatially explicit datasets on agricultural production circa 2010 – and elaborate on the improvement of the SPAM (Spatial Production Allocation Model) dataset family since 2000. SPAM2010 adds further methodological and data enhancements to the available crop downscaling modeling, which mainly include the update of base year, the extension of crop list, and the expansion of subnational administrative-unit coverage. Specifically, it not only applies the latest global synergy cropland layer (see Lu et al., submitted to the current journal) and other relevant data but also expands the estimates of crop area, yield, and production from 20 to 42 major crops under four farming systems across a global 5 arcmin grid. All the SPAM maps are freely available at the MapSPAM website (http://mapspam.info/, last access: 11 December 2020), which not only acts as a tool for validating and improving the performance of the SPAM maps by collecting feedback from users but is also a platform providing archived global agricultural-production maps for better targeting the Sustainable Development Goals. In particular, SPAM2010 can be downloaded via an open-data repository (DOI: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PRFF8V; IFPRI, 2019).

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP5; Feed the Future Innovation Laboratory for Small-Scale Irrigation; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; G Cross-cutting gender theme; Land Resource Management for Poverty Reduction, EPTD, CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems (WLE), Irrigation is an important strategy to increase agricultural productivity, improve nutrition security and reduce climate-related risks in rural Africa, but adoption of this technology has been low. Using data from the Living Standards Measurement Study, this paper analyzes the characteristics of irrigation in Mali and its impact on nutrition across sex of irrigators. Results show that gravity irrigation is the most common technology and is practiced by 47 percent of irrigators. The share of women irrigators (3 percent of all plots) is significantly lower than that of men. Econometric results show that the proximity of crop fields to the homestead increases the propensity to use motor pumps while more remote plots are more likely to rely on gravity irrigation. Literacy and income from nonfarm activities increase the propensity to use motorized irrigation technologies. Access to motor pumps, in turn, increases consumption of fruits and vegetables, oils, spices, and cereals for female-headed households. Overall, irrigation increases consumption of nutrient-rich food groups, which significantly improves household nutrition in addition to increasing income. Participation in farmer groups increases the propensity to adopt irrigation. Farmer groups might also be an entry point for capacity building on irrigation; and groups to which women farmers belong should receive information on irrigation. Farmer groups also tend to support market participation, which is important to help address the challenge of economies of scale of small-scale irrigators.

PR, IFPRI3; DCA; ISI; Capacity Strengthening; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, EPTD, Accurate geo-information of cropland is critical for food security strategy development and grain production management, especially in Africa continent where most countries are food-insecure. Over the past decades, a series of African cropland maps have been derived from remotely-sensed data, existing comparison studies have shown that inconsistencies with statistics and discrepancies among these products are considerable. Yet, there is a knowledge gap about the factors that influence their consistency. The aim of this study is thus to estimate the consistency of five widely-used cropland datasets (MODIS Collection 5, GlobCover 2009, GlobeLand30, CCI-LC 2010, and Unified Cropland Layer) in Africa, and to explore the effects of several limiting factors (landscape fragmentation, climate and agricultural management) on spatial consistency. The results show that total cropland area for Africa derived from GlobeLand30 has the best fitness with FAO statistics, followed by MODIS Collection 5. GlobCover 2009, CCI-LC 2010, and Unified Cropland Layer have poor performances as indicated by larger deviations from statistics. In terms of spatial consistency, disagreement is about 37.9 % at continental scale, and the disparate proportion even exceeds 50 % in approximately 1/3 of the countries at national scale. We further found that there is a strong and significant correlation between spatial agreement and cropland fragmentation, suggesting that regions with higher landscape fragmentation generally have larger disparities. It is also noticed that places with better consistency are mainly distributed in regions with favorable natural environments and sufficient agricultural management such as well-developed irrigated technology. Proportions of complete agreement are thus located in favorable climate zones including Hot-summer Mediterranean climate (Csa), Subtropical highland climate (Cwb), and Temperate Mediterranean climate (Csb). The level of complete agreement keeps rising as

PR, 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; IFPRI3; ISI, EPTD, This paper raises a fundamental question about Sub-Saharan Africa: has urbanization there been accompanied by improvements in personal wellbeing? It then proceeds to open an investigation focused on child health—in the form of child growth failure, including (i) stunting; (ii) wasting; and (iii) underweight—that addresses the question. The main contribution of the work is to reconcile an array of data, collected across different spatial scales and over different timeframes, in a manner that enables some preliminary insight into the relationships explored. Evidence derived from the analysis suggests that the wave of urbanization breaking across Sub-Saharan Africa is associated with improvements in wellbeing, a finding that is qualified by need for further research.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; CRP2, EPTD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), This paper examines two new methods to generate gridded agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and compares the results with a traditional method. In the case of Brazil, these two new methods of spatial disaggregation and cross-entropy outperform the prediction of agricultural GDP from the traditional method that distributes agricultural GDP using rural population. The paper finds that the best prediction method is spatial disaggregation using a regression approach for all the key crops and contributors to agricultural GDP. However, the issue of degrees of freedom is an important limiting factor, as the approach requires sufficient subnational data. The cross-entropy method with readily available spatially distributed crop, livestock, forest, and fish allocation far outperforms the traditional method, at least in the case of Brazil, and can operate with nationaland/or subnational-level data.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; DCA; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply, EPTD, Cropland maps at regional or global scales typically have large uncertainty and are also inconsistent with each other. The substantial uncertainty in these cropland maps limits their use in research and management efforts. Many synergy approaches have been developed to generate hybrid cropland maps with higher accuracy from existing cropland maps. However, few studies have compared the advantages, disadvantages, and regional suitability of these approaches. To close this knowledge gap, this study aims to compare two representative synergy methods of cropland mapping: Geographically weighted regression (GWR) and modified fuzzy agreement scoring (MFAS). We assessed how the sample size, quality of input satellite-based maps, and various landscapes influence the accuracy of the synergy maps based on these two methods.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; G Cross-cutting gender theme, EPTD

PR, IFPRI4; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; G Cross-cutting gender theme; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Land Resource Management for Poverty Reduction, EPTD; AFR, 25 pages, Land degradation poses daunting challenges to Niger and the country has designed several policies and strategies for combatting it. Building on work past studies, this study uses new satellite data which have higher resolution and run for longer time – thus capturing the longterm land management dynamics. This study also uses an improved cost of land degradation model which nets out benefits from land improvement as well analysing the impacts of land degradation on food and nutrition security. Results show that in the past 25 years, Niger has rehabilitated over 10 million ha of bare land – or 2.6% of lands south of the desert – home to more than 90% of population. The annual total economic value of degradation was 2015 US$3.535 billion or 19% of the 2015 purchasing power parity gross domestic product. Rehabilitation of degraded land will have large impacts on household food and nutrition security. Yet, adoption rates of key land management practices are very low. The results suggest the need to Niger to find other incentives for increasing adoption of improved land management – such as payment for ecosystem services and improvement of road infrastructure, education and extension services.

IFPRI1; Open Access; CRP2; HarvestChoice, EPTD; PIM, Using a variety of inputs, IFPRI's Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) uses a cross-entropy approach to make plausible estimates of crop distribution within disaggregated units. Moving the data from coarser units such as countries and sub-national provinces, to finer units such as grid cells, reveals spatial patterns of crop performance, creating a global grid-scape at the confluence between geography and agricultural production systems. Improving spatial understanding of crop production systems allows policymakers and donors to better target agricultural and rural development policies and investments, increasing food security and growth with minimal environmental impacts.