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6. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000–19:a three-stage modelling study

Author

Wu, Y. (Yao), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Wen, B. (Bo), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), Iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), De'Donato, F. (Francesca), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Wu, Y. (Yao), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Wen, B. (Bo), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), Iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), De'Donato, F. (Francesca), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. d. (Micheline de Sousa), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Nascimento Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), and Guo, Y. (Yuming)

Abstract

Background: Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability: However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000–19. Methods: In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° degrees from 2000–19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. Findings: An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1753392 deaths (95% CI 1159 901–2357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, ac

Published
2022

8. Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale

Author

Tobías, A. Hashizume, M. Honda, Y. Sera, F. Ng, C.F.S. Kim, Y. Roye, D. Chung, Y. Dang, T.N. Kim, H. Lee, W. Íñiguez, C. Vicedo-Cabrera, A. Abrutzky, R. Guo, Y. Tong, S. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. Saldiva, P.H.N. Lavigne, E. Correa, P.M. Ortega, N.V. Kan, H. Osorio, S. Kyselý, J. Urban, A. Orru, H. Indermitte, E. Jaakkola, J.J.K. Ryti, N.R.I. Pascal, M. Huber, V. Schneider, A. Katsouyanni, K. Analitis, A. Entezari, A. Mayvaneh, F. Goodman, P. Zeka, A. Michelozzi, P. de'Donato, F. Alahmad, B. Diaz, M.H. de la Cruz Valencia, C. Overcenco, A. Houthuijs, D. Ameling, C. Rao, S. Di Ruscio, F. Carrasco, G. Seposo, X. Nunes, B. Madureira, J. Holobaca, I.-H. Scovronick, N. Acquaotta, F. Forsberg, B. Åström, C. Ragettli, M.S. Guo, Y.-L.L. Chen, B.-Y. Li, S. Colistro, V. Zanobetti, A. Schwartz, J. van Dung, D. Armstrong, B. Gasparrini, A.

Abstract

Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 ºC decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 ºC) to continental (19.3 ºC), temperate (21.7 ºC), arid (24.5 ºC), and tropical (26.5 ºC). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 ºC for a 1 ºC rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 ºC for a 1 ºC rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 ºC rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 ºC rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation. Copyright © 2021 The Authors.

Published
2021

9. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019:a three-stage modelling study

Author

Zhao, Q. (Qi), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Ye, T. (Tingting), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Van Dung, D. (Do), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), de'Donato, F. (Francesca), Di Ruscio, F. (Francesco), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario Nascimento), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Fratianni, S. (Simona), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), Li, S. (Shanshan), Zhao, Q. (Qi), Guo, Y. (Yuming), Ye, T. (Tingting), Gasparrini, A. (Antonio), Tong, S. (Shilu), Overcenco, A. (Ala), Urban, A. (Ales), Schneider, A. (Alexandra), Entezari, A. (Alireza), Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (Ana Maria), Zanobetti, A. (Antonella), Analitis, A. (Antonis), Zeka, A. (Ariana), Tobias, A. (Aurelio), Nunes, B. (Baltazar), Alahmad, B. (Barrak), Armstrong, B. (Ben), Forsberg, B. (Bertil), Pan, S.-C. (Shih-Chun), iniguez, C. (Carmen), Ameling, C. (Caroline), De la Cruz Valencia, C. (Cesar), Astrom, C. (Christofer), Houthuijs, D. (Danny), Van Dung, D. (Do), Roye, D. (Dominic), Indermitte, E. (Ene), Lavigne, E. (Eric), Mayvaneh, F. (Fatemeh), Acquaotta, F. (Fiorella), de'Donato, F. (Francesca), Di Ruscio, F. (Francesco), Sera, F. (Francesco), Carrasco-Escobar, G. (Gabriel), Kan, H. (Haidong), Orru, H. (Hans), Kim, H. (Ho), Holobaca, I.-H. (Iulian-Horia), Kysely, J. (Jan), Madureira, J. (Joana), Schwartz, J. (Joel), Jaakkola, J. J. (Jouni J. K.), Katsouyanni, K. (Klea), Diaz, M. H. (Magali Hurtado), Ragettli, M. S. (Martina S.), Hashizume, M. (Masahiro), Pascal, M. (Mathilde), de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M. (Micheline), Ortega, N. V. (Nicolas Valdes), Ryti, N. (Niilo), Scovronick, N. (Noah), Michelozzi, P. (Paola), Correa, P. M. (Patricia Matus), Goodman, P. (Patrick), Saldiva, P. H. (Paulo Hilario Nascimento), Abrutzky, R. (Rosana), Osorio, S. (Samuel), Rao, S. (Shilpa), Fratianni, S. (Simona), Dang, T. N. (Tran Ngoc), Colistro, V. (Valentina), Huber, V. (Veronika), Lee, W. (Whanhee), Seposo, X. (Xerxes), Honda, Y. (Yasushi), Guo, Y. L. (Yue Leon), Bell, M. L. (Michelle L.), and Li, S. (Shanshan)

Abstract

Background: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature–mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature–mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. Findings: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), l

Published
2021

21. Evaluating the extent of clinical uncertainty among treatment options for patients with early-onset scoliosis

Author

Corona, J., Miller, D., Downs, Jennepher, Akbarnia, B., Betz, R., Blakemore, L., Campbell, R., Flynn, J., Johnston, C., McCarthy, R., Roye, D., Skaggs, D., Smith, J., Snyder, B., Sponseller, P., Sturm, P., Thompson, G., Yazici, M., Vitale, M., Corona, J., Miller, D., Downs, Jennepher, Akbarnia, B., Betz, R., Blakemore, L., Campbell, R., Flynn, J., Johnston, C., McCarthy, R., Roye, D., Skaggs, D., Smith, J., Snyder, B., Sponseller, P., Sturm, P., Thompson, G., Yazici, M., and Vitale, M.

Abstract

Background: Literature guiding the management of early-onset scoliosis consists primarily of studies with a low level of evidence. Evaluation of clinical equipoise (i.e., when there is no known superiority among treatment modalities) allows for prioritization of research efforts. The objective of this study was to evaluate areas of clinical uncertainty among pediatric spine surgeons regarding the treatment of early-onset scoliosis. Methods: Fourteen experienced pediatric spine surgeons participated in semistructured interviews to identify clinical variables that influence decision making in the treatment of early-onset scoliosis. A series of case scenarios of 315 patients with idiopathic and neuromuscular early-onset scoliosis was then developed to be representative of those encountered in clinical practice. Using an online survey, eleven surgeons selected their choice of eight treatment options for each case scenario. Associations between case characteristics and treatment choices were assessed with chi-square and logistic regression analysis. Participants then reviewed the areas of treatment uncertainty identified in the survey, nominated additional research questions of interest, and ranked their interest to further explore the identified research questions.Results: Collective equipoise was identified in numerous scenarios in the survey spanning a range of ages and magnitudes of scoliosis, and additional questions were identified during the nominal group technique. Areas that had the greatest clinical uncertainty included the management of patients who have finished treatment with a growing-rod, timing of rod-lengthening intervals, and indications for spine-based and rib-based proximal instrumentation anchors. The use of rib anchors compared with spine-based anchors was ranked highly for consideration in future clinical trials. Conclusions: Variability in decision making with regard to the optimum treatment of certain subsets of patients with early-onset scoliosi

Published
2013

49. Severe mid-cervical kyphosis with cord compression in Larsen's syndrome and diastrophic dysplasia: unrelated syndromes with similar radiologic findings and neurosurgical implications.

Author

Forese, L., Berdon, W., Harcke, H., Wagner, M., Lachman, R., Chorney, G., Roye, D., Forese, L L, Berdon, W E, Harcke, H T, Wagner, M L, Chorney, G S, and Roye, D P

Abstract

Mid-cervical kyphosis in diastrophic dysplasia (DD) with cord compression and weakness has been recognized for the last three decades. A strikingly similar situation exists in Larsen's syndrome (LS), an otherwise unrelated problem of weakness with lay joints and dislocations with typical facies. Forty patients with DD were studied of whom seven had cervical spine kyphosis: one patient had spontaneous correction over the ensuing two decades. Seven patients with LS were studied of whom four had cervical spine changes with cord compression. There was one sudden death among the patients with LS and no cases of spontaneous correction. Muscle weakness in DD and LS should lead to evaluation of cervical spine kyphosis with cord compression. Plain films, CT and recently MRI are useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
1995
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