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1. Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community

Author: Jacob, Daniela, Teichmann, Claas, Sobolowski, Stefan, Katragkou, Eleni, Anders, Ivonne, Belda, Michal, Benestad, Rasmus, Boberg, Fredrik, Buonomo, Erasmo, Cardoso, Rita M., Casanueva, Ana, Christensen, Ole B., Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg, Coppola, Erika, De Cruz, Lesley, Davin, Edouard L., Dobler, Andreas, Domínguez, Marta, Fealy, Rowan, Fernandez, Jesus, Gaertner, Miguel Angel, García-Díez, Markel, Giorgi, Filippo, Gobiet, Andreas, Goergen, Klaus, Gómez-Navarro, Juan José, Alemán, Juan Jesús González, Gutiérrez, Claudia, Gutiérrez, José M., Güttler, Ivan, Haensler, Andreas, Halenka, Tomáš, Jerez, Sonia, Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro, Jones, Richard G., Keuler, Klaus, Kjellström, Erik, Knist, Sebastian, Kotlarski, Sven, Maraun, Douglas, van Meijgaard, Erik, Mercogliano, Paola, Montávez, Juan Pedro, Navarra, Antonio, Nikulin, Grigory, de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie, Panitz, Hans-Juergen, Pfeifer, Susanne, Piazza, Marie, Pichelli, Emanuela, Pietikäinen, Joni-Pekka, Prein, Andreas F., Preuschmann, Swantje, Rechid, Diana, Rockel, Burkhardt, Romera, Raquel, Sánchez, Enrique, Sieck, Kevin, Soares, Pedro M. M., Somot, Samuel, Srnec, Lidija, Sørland, Silje Lund, Termonia, Piet, Truhetz, Heimo, Vautard, Robert, Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten, Wulfmeyer, Volker, Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany, NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway, Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece, Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna, Austria, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal, Meteorology Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark, International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB), Brussels, Belgium, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain, ICARUS, Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain, Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems, Geoverbund ABC/J, Jülich, Germany, Regional Atmospheric Modeling Group, Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain, Meteorology Group, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (CSIC-Universidad de Cantabria), Santander, Spain, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK, Chair of Atmospheric Processes, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus - Senftenberg, Cottbus, Germany, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden, Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich-Airport, Switzerland, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands, C.I.R.A., Capua, Italy, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Lecce, Italy, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Helsinki, Finland, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany, CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium, Institute of Physics and Meteorology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany, Jacob D., Teichmann C., Sobolowski S., Katragkou E., Anders I., Belda M., Benestad R., Boberg F., Buonomo E., Cardoso R.M., Casanueva A., Christensen O.B., Christensen J.H., Coppola E., De Cruz L., Davin E.L., Dobler A., Dominguez M., Fealy R., Fernandez J., Gaertner M.A., Garcia-Diez M., Giorgi F., Gobiet A., Goergen K., Gomez-Navarro J.J., Aleman J.J.G., Gutierrez C., Gutierrez J.M., Guttler I., Haensler A., Halenka T., Jerez S., Jimenez-Guerrero P., Jones R.G., Keuler K., Kjellstrom E., Knist S., Kotlarski S., Maraun D., van Meijgaard E., Mercogliano P., Montavez J.P., Navarra A., Nikulin G., de Noblet-Ducoudre N., Panitz H.-J., Pfeifer S., Piazza M., Pichelli E., Pietikainen J.-P., Prein A.F., Preuschmann S., Rechid D., Rockel B., Romera R., Sanchez E., Sieck K., Soares P.M.M., Somot S., Srnec L., Sorland S.L., Termonia P., Truhetz H., Vautard R., Warrach-Sagi K., Wulfmeyer V., Electronics and Informatics, Physics, Universidad de Cantabria, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), CSIC-UC - Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), and European Commission
Subjects: IMPACTS, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, ENSEMBLE, 02 engineering and technology, Land cover, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, COVER CHANGES, 11. Sustainability, ddc:330, Regional science, Adaptation (computer science), Temporal scales, TEMPERATURE, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, MODEL DESCRIPTION, Global and Planetary Change, regional climate models, EURO-CORDEX, Land use, LAND-USE, FUTURE CHANGES, 15. Life on land, SIMULATIONS, 020801 environmental engineering, Earth system science, CORDEX, Geography, ddc:551.6, 13. Climate action, Earth and Environmental Sciences, MED-CORDEX, EURO-CORDEX, DAILY PRECIPITATION STATISTICS, Downscaling, Regional climate modelling, Regional climate models
Abstract: The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe., S.S. acknowledges the support of NOTUR/NORSTORE projects NN9280K/NS9001K and the Research Council of Norway and its basic institute support of the strategic project on Climate Services. E.K. acknowledges the support of the Greek Research & Technology Network (GRNET) for provision of technical support and facilities (HPC-ARIS). L.S. and I.G. acknowledge the support of Croatian Science Foundation project CARE (2831) and Ministry of Environment and Energy project TF/HR/P3-M1-O1-0101 (www.prilagodba-klimi.hr). J. F. acknowledges support from the Spanish R+D Programme through grant INSIGNIA (CGL2016-79210-R), co-funded by ERDF/FEDER, and the Altamira Supercomputer at Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA-CSIC), member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network. P.T. acknowledges support from the Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO) within the CORDEX.be (BR/143/A2) project, and the VSC (Flemish Supercomputer Center), funded by the Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO) and the Flemish Government – department EWI.M.A.G. acknowledges support from the Spanish R+D Programme through grants CGL2013-47261-R and CGL2017-89583-R, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund. RF acknowledges support provided by ICHEC (Irish Centre for High End Computing) and the Irish Environmental Protection Agency. K.G. and S.K. gratefully acknowledge the computing time granted through JARA-HPC on the supercomputers JUROPA and JURECA at Forschungszentrum Jülich. M.B. and T.H. acknowledge support by The Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports from the Large Infrastructures for Research, Experimental Development and Innovations project “IT4Innovations National Supercomputing Center – LM2015070” and the INTER-EXCELLENCE program LTT17007, and support by Charles University from the PROGRES Q16 program. We acknowledge the approval and support of the two Flagship Pilot Studies (the FPS on Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean and the FPS on Land Use and Climate Across Scales) by WRCP CORDEX. We thank Merja Tölle for providing simulation CCLM5-0-9-JLU as contribution to the CORDEX-FPS “Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean”. D. M., M.P., and H.T. gratefully acknowledge the support received via the projects HighEnd:Extremes, SPIRIT, and reclip:convex, funded by the Austrian Climate Research Programme (ACRP) of the Klima- und Energiefonds (nos. B368608, B960272, and B769999, respectively), as well as the Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC) for compute time on JURECA through the grant JJSC39 and the Vienna Scientific Cluster (VSC) through the grants 70992 and 71193.
Published: 2020
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2. Global observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate interactions: Global observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climateinteractions

Author: Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, University of Helsinki, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Lund University, University of Colorado Boulder, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH), Universität Leipzig, Rosenfeld, Daniel, Andreae, Meinrat O., Asmi, Ari, Chin, Mian, de Leeuw, Gerrit, Donovan, David P., Kahn, Ralph, Kinne, Stefan, Kivekäs, Niku, Kulmala, Markku, Lau, William, Schmidt, K. Sebastian, Suni, Tanja, Wagner, Thomas, Wild, Martin, Quaas, Johannes, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie, University of Helsinki, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Lund University, University of Colorado Boulder, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH), Universität Leipzig, Rosenfeld, Daniel, Andreae, Meinrat O., Asmi, Ari, Chin, Mian, de Leeuw, Gerrit, Donovan, David P., Kahn, Ralph, Kinne, Stefan, Kivekäs, Niku, Kulmala, Markku, Lau, William, Schmidt, K. Sebastian, Suni, Tanja, Wagner, Thomas, Wild, Martin, and Quaas, Johannes
Abstract: Cloud drop condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) particles determine to a large extent cloud microstructure and, consequently, cloud albedo and the dynamic response of clouds to aerosol-induced changes to precipitation. This can modify the reflected solar radiation and the thermal radiation emitted to space. Measurements of tropospheric CCN and IN over large areas have not been possible and can be only roughly approximated from satellite-sensor-based estimates of optical properties of aerosols. Our lack of ability to measure both CCN and cloud updrafts precludes disentangling the effects ofmeteorology fromthose of aerosols and represents the largest component in our uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.Ways to improve the retrieval accuracy include multiangle and multipolarimetric passive measurements of the optical signal and multispectral lidar polarimetric measurements. Indirect methods include proxies of trace gases, as retrieved by hyperspectral sensors. Perhaps the most promising emerging direction is retrieving the CCN properties by simultaneously retrieving convective cloud drop number concentrations and updraft speeds, which amounts to using clouds as natural CCN chambers. These satellite observations have to be constrained by in situ observations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation-climate (ACPC) interactions, which in turn constrain a hierarchy of model simulations of ACPC. Since the essence of a general circulation model is an accurate quantification of the energy and mass fluxes in all forms between the surface, atmosphere and outer space, a route to progress is proposed here in the form of a series of box flux closure experiments in the various climate regimes. A roadmap is provided for quantifying the ACPC interactions and thereby reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic climate forcing.
Published: 2015

3. Remote sensing of droplet number concentration in warm clouds: A review of the current state of knowledge and perspectives

Author: Hartwig Deneke, Graham Feingold, Kenneth Sinclair, Paquita Zuidema, Brian Cairns, J. Christine Chiu, Frank Werner, Manfred Wendisch, Andrew S. Ackerman, Daniel T. McCoy, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Ralf Bennartz, R. Boers, John Rausch, Ann M. Fridlind, Mikhail D. Alexandrov, Philip Stier, Herman Russchenberg, Robert Wood, Anja Hünerbein, Daniel Rosenfeld, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Pavlos Kollias, David Painemal, Alexander Marshak, Odran Sourdeval, Michael S. Diamond, Daniel Merk, Zhibo Zhang, Patric Seifert, Christine Knist, Matthew Christensen, Johannes Quaas, Université de Lille, CNRS, University of Leeds, Leipziger Institut für Meteorologie [LIM], Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique (LOA) - UMR 8518, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science [RSMAS], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies [GISS], Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics [New York], Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Nashville], Space Science and Engineering Center [Madison] [SSEC], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute [KNMI], Colorado State University [Fort Collins] [CSU], Department of Physics [Oxford], CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory [RAL], Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research [TROPOS], University of Washington [Seattle], NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory [ESRL], Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] [DWD], Stony Brook University [SUNY] [SBU], NASA Goddard Space Flight Center [GSFC], NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] [LaRC], The Hebrew University of Jerusalem [HUJ], Delft University of Technology [TU Delft], Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering [New York], Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] [CCSR], Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology [Baltimore] [JCET], Department of Physics [Baltimore], Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 (LOA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Leipziger Institut für Meteorologie (LIM), Universität Leipzig, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Columbia University [New York], Space Science and Engineering Center [Madison] (SSEC), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Vanderbilt University [Nashville], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), University of Oxford, Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Stony Brook University [SUNY] (SBU), State University of New York (SUNY), NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ), Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology [Baltimore] (JCET), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)-University of Maryland [Baltimore County] (UMBC), University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, University of Maryland [Baltimore County] (UMBC), European Project: 306284,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2012-StG_20111012,QUAERERE(2012), European Project: 724602,Recap, and European Project: 641727,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,PRIMAVERA(2015)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, satellite, Cloud computing, Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Review Article, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, law.invention, Remote Sensing, Quality (physics), law, Cloud/Radiation Interaction, Instruments and Techniques, Radar, Review Articles, lidar, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Remote sensing, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, passive retrievals, Effective radius, business.industry, Remote Sensing and Disasters, Cloud physics, Radiative forcing, cloud droplet concentrations, Geophysics, Lidar, 13. Climate action, Atmospheric Processes, Cloud Physics and Chemistry, Environmental science, Satellite, business, Clouds and Aerosols, Natural Hazards, radar
Abstract: The cloud droplet number concentration (N d) is of central interest to improve the understanding of cloud physics and for quantifying the effective radiative forcing by aerosol‐cloud interactions. Current standard satellite retrievals do not operationally provide N d, but it can be inferred from retrievals of cloud optical depth (τ c) cloud droplet effective radius (r e) and cloud top temperature. This review summarizes issues with this approach and quantifies uncertainties. A total relative uncertainty of 78% is inferred for pixel‐level retrievals for relatively homogeneous, optically thick and unobscured stratiform clouds with favorable viewing geometry. The uncertainty is even greater if these conditions are not met. For averages over 1° ×1° regions the uncertainty is reduced to 54% assuming random errors for instrument uncertainties. In contrast, the few evaluation studies against reference in situ observations suggest much better accuracy with little variability in the bias. More such studies are required for a better error characterization. N d uncertainty is dominated by errors in r e, and therefore, improvements in r e retrievals would greatly improve the quality of the N d retrievals. Recommendations are made for how this might be achieved. Some existing N d data sets are compared and discussed, and best practices for the use of N d data from current passive instruments (e.g., filtering criteria) are recommended. Emerging alternative N d estimates are also considered. First, new ideas to use additional information from existing and upcoming spaceborne instruments are discussed, and second, approaches using high‐quality ground‐based observations are examined., Key Points Satellite cloud droplet concentration uncertainties of 78% for pixel‐level retrievals and 54% for 1 by 1 degree retrievals are estimatedThe effective radius retrieval is the most important aspect for improvement, and more in situ evaluation is neededPotential improvements using passive and active satellite, and ground‐based instruments are discussed
Published: 2018
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4. Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

Author: Gabi Hegerl, Pascal Yiou, Laura Wilcox, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rowan Sutton, Ioana Colfescu, Mathias Hauser, Fraser C. Lott, Buwen Dong, Len Shaffrey, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading ( UOR ) -University of Reading ( UOR ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Attribution, Precipitation, Drought, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, Forcing (mathematics), Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, Climatology, ddc:550, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Environmental science, Circulation (currency), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Summer 2012 was very wet in northern Europe, and unusually dry and hot in southern Europe. We use multiple approaches to determine whether anthropogenic forcing made the extreme European summer of 2012 more likely. Using a number of observation- and model-based methods, we find that there was an anthropogenic contribution to the extremes in southern Europe, with a qualitative consensus across all methodologies. There was a consensus across the methodologies that there has been a significant increase in the risk of hot summers in southern Europe with climate change. Most approaches also suggested a slight drying, but none of the results were statistically significant. The unusually wet summer in northern Europe was made more likely by the observed atmospheric circulation pattern in 2012, but no evidence was found for a long-term trend in circulation. ISSN:0930-7575 ISSN:1432-0894
Published: 2018
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5. Attribution of Wintertime Anticyclonic Stagnation Contributing to Air Pollution in Western Europe

Author: Vautard , Robert, Colette , Augustin, Van Meijgaard , Erik, Meleux , Frédérik, Jan van Oldenborgh , Geert, Otto , Friederike, Tobin , Isabelle, Yiou , Pascal, Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques ( INERIS ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), University of Oxford [Oxford], Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) ( LMD ), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -École polytechnique ( X ) -École des Ponts ParisTech ( ENPC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2018
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6. The CAMS interim Reanalysis of Carbon Monoxide, Ozone and Aerosol for 2003–2015

Author: L. Jones, Dimitris Akritidis, Angela Benedetti, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Eleni Katragkou, Mark Parrington, Richard Engelen, Martin Suttie, Vincent Huijnen, Samuel Remy, Alessio Bozzo, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) ( LMD ), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -École polytechnique ( X ) -École des Ponts ParisTech ( ENPC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ) -École normale supérieure - Paris ( ENS Paris ), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, food.ingredient, Ozone, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, Weather forecasting, 010501 environmental sciences, Present day, computer.software_genre, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, [ CHIM ] Chemical Sciences, 010305 fluids & plasmas, lcsh:Chemistry, chemistry.chemical_compound, food, 0103 physical sciences, Ozone layer, [CHIM]Chemical Sciences, Tropospheric ozone, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [PHYS]Physics [physics], [ PHYS ] Physics [physics], Sea salt, lcsh:QC1-999, Aerosol, lcsh:QD1-999, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, computer, lcsh:Physics, Carbon monoxide
Abstract: A new global reanalysis data set of atmospheric composition (AC) for the period 2003–2015 has been produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Satellite observations of total column (TC) carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol optical depth (AOD), as well as several TC and profile observations of ozone, have been assimilated with the Integrated Forecasting System for Composition (C-IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Compared to the previous Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis (MACCRA), the new CAMS interim reanalysis (CAMSiRA) is of a coarser horizontal resolution of about 110 km, compared to 80 km, but covers a longer period with the intent to be continued to present day. This paper compares CAMSiRA with MACCRA and a control run experiment (CR) without assimilation of AC retrievals. CAMSiRA has smaller biases than the CR with respect to independent observations of CO, AOD and stratospheric ozone. However, ozone at the surface could not be improved by the assimilation because of the strong impact of surface processes such as dry deposition and titration with nitrogen monoxide (NO), which were both unchanged by the assimilation. The assimilation of AOD led to a global reduction of sea salt and desert dust as well as an exaggerated increase in sulfate. Compared to MACCRA, CAMSiRA had smaller biases for AOD, surface CO and TC ozone as well as for upper stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Finally, the temporal consistency of CAMSiRA was better than the one of MACCRA. This was achieved by using a revised emission data set as well as by applying careful selection and bias correction to the assimilated retrievals. CAMSiRA is therefore better suited than MACCRA for the study of interannual variability, as demonstrated for trends in surface CO.
Published: 2017
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7. Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

Author: Meehl, G., Goddard, L., Kirtman, B., Branstator, G., Danabasoglu, G., Hawkins, E., Kumar, A., Rosati, T., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Boer, G., Burgman, R., Carson, C., Corti, S., Karspeck, A., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Matei, D., https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3735-8802, Mignot, J., Msadek, R., Navarra, A., Pohlmann, H., Rienecker, M., Schneider, E., Tebaldi, C., Teng, H., van Oldenborgh, G., Vecchi, G., Yeager, S., National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), International Research Institute for Climate and Society ( IRI ), Earth Institute at Columbia University, Columbia University [New York]-Columbia University [New York], CERFACS [Toulouse], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Department of Neurological Sciences, University of Milan, Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats ( ICREA ), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading ( UOR ), Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Carnot de Bourgogne ( LICB ), Université de Bourgogne ( UB ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology ( MPI-M ), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts ( PARVATI ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques ( LOCEAN ), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle ( MNHN ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle ( MNHN ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ( GFDL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica [Perugia] ( DMI ), Università degli Studi di Perugia ( UNIPG ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Espaces et Sociétés ( ESO ), Université de Caen Normandie ( UNICAEN ), Normandie Université ( NU ) -Normandie Université ( NU ) -Le Mans Université ( UM ) -Université d'Angers ( UA ) -AGROCAMPUS OUEST-Université de Rennes 2 ( UR2 ), Université de Rennes ( UNIV-RENNES ) -Université de Rennes ( UNIV-RENNES ) -Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement ( IGARUN ), Université de Nantes ( UN ) -Université de Nantes ( UN ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Florida International University [Miami] (FIU), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), University of Reading (UOR), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Carnot de Bourgogne (LICB), Université de Bourgogne (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica [Perugia] (DMI), Università degli Studi di Perugia (UNIPG), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Espaces et Sociétés (ESO), Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université d'Angers (UA)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Le Mans Université (UM), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Meehl GA, Goddard L, Boer G, Burgman R, Branstator G, Cassou C, Corti S, Danabasoglu G, Doblas-Reyes F, Hawkins E, Karspeck A, Kimoto M, Kumar A, Matei D, Mignot J, Msadek R, Navarra A, Pohlmann H, Rienecker M, Rosati T, Schneider E, Smith D, Sutton R, Teng HY, van Oldenborgh GJ, Vecchi G, and Yeager S
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmosphere, Climate system, Initialization, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Forcing (mathematics), Hiatus, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, [ PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH ] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Climatic changes--Simulation methods, Climatic changes--Forecasting, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, decadal predictions, climate, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multimodel ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multimodel initialized predictions for near-term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6–9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.
Published: 2014
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8. Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone - Part 1: Measurement techniques, uncertainties and availability

Author: Erkki Kyrölä, Neil R. P. Harris, Gaëlle Dufour, Alan Parrish, Jean-Christopher Lambert, Stacey M. Frith, Rosemary Munro, Masato Shiotani, Piera Raspollini, P. K. Bhartia, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Mark Weber, Johannes Staehelin, A. Rozanov, Herman G. J. Smit, Pieternel F. Levelt, Cathy Clerbaux, Anu Dudhia, C. T. McElroy, Gabriele Stiller, J. P. Veefkind, Yasuhiro Sasano, Joachim Urban, T. Sano, D. A. Degenstein, Hideaki Nakajima, Johanna Tamminen, C. von Savigny, J. D. Wild, Kaley A. Walker, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, David W. Tarasick, Bianca Maria Dinelli, Daan Hubert, M. De Mazière, Yasuko Kasai, T. von Clarmann, Karl W. Hoppel, Richard D. McPeters, José Granville, Thomas August, Birgit Hassler, Joseph M. Zawodny, Corinne Vigouroux, M. J. Kurylo, Ellis E. Remsberg, Lucien Froidevaux, Karen H. Rosenlof, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences ( CIRES ), University of Colorado Boulder [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory ( ESRL ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] ( IAC ), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich ( ETH Zürich ), EUMETSAT, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales ( LATMOS ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon] ( U of S ), Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique ( BIRA-IASB ), Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima ( ISAC ), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche [Roma] ( CNR ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), University of Oxford [Oxford], Laboratoire inter-universitaire des systèmes atmosphèriques ( LISA ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 ( UPD7 ) -Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 ( UPEC UP12 ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Lanham] ( SSAI ), Jet Propulsion Laboratory ( JPL ), NASA-California Institute of Technology ( CALTECH ), SHTI - LATMOS, Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] ( CAM ), Naval Research Laboratory ( NRL ), National Institute of Information and Communications Technology ( NICT ), Finnish Meteorological Institute ( FMI ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Department of Physics [Toronto], University of Toronto, National Institute for Environmental Studies ( NIES ), Department of Astronomy [Amherst], University of Massachusetts [Amherst] ( UMass Amherst ), Istituto di Fisica Applicata 'Nello Carrara' ( IFAC ), NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] ( LaRC ), Institute of Environmental Physics/Institute of Remote Sensing ( IUP ), University of Bremen, Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere ( RISH ), Kyoto University [Kyoto], Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies ( AIRIES ), Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research ( IMK ), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology ( KIT ), Air Quality Research Division [Toronto], Environment and Climate Change Canada, Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg], Institut für Physik [Greifswald], Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald, Schneider Electric, Groupe Schneider Electric, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon] (U of S), Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique (BIRA-IASB), Istituto di Scienze dell'Atmosfera e del Clima (ISAC), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche [Roma] (CNR), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Lanham] (SSAI), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), STRATO - LATMOS, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), National Institute of Information and Communications Technology [Tokyo, Japan] (NICT), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), University of Massachusetts [Amherst] (UMass Amherst), University of Massachusetts System (UMASS)-University of Massachusetts System (UMASS), Istituto di Fisica Applicata 'Nello Carrara' (IFAC), NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), Institut für Umweltphysik [Bremen] (IUP), Universität Bremen, Research Institute for Sustainable Humanosphere (RISH), Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies (AIRIES), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Schneider Electric ( SE), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), University of Oxford, Kyoto University, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Atmospheric Science, Earth observation, Chlorofluorocarbon, Ozone, Meteorology, lcsh:TA715-787, lcsh:Earthwork. Foundations, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, Ozone depletion, lcsh:Environmental engineering, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, [ PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH ] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Ozone layer, ddc:550, Environmental science, lcsh:TA170-171, Stratosphere
Abstract: Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and other ozone depleting substance (ODS) concentrations were reached in the mid- to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical) and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N) Initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground and satellite based) available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument). Archive location information for each data set is also given.
Published: 2016
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9. Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events

Author: Peter A. Stott, Nikos Christidis, G. J. van Oldenborgh, Pascal Yiou, Robert Vautard, Friederike E. L. Otto, Nathalie Schaller, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), European Project: 607085,EC:FP7:SPA,FP7-SPACE-2013-1,EUCLEIA(2014), European Project: 338965,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-ADG,A2C2(2014), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Oxford [Oxford], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), European Project : 607085,EC:FP7:SPA,FP7-SPACE-2013-1,EUCLEIA ( 2014 ), and European Project : 338965,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-ADG,A2C2 ( 2014 )
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, extreme events, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric model, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Extreme weather, Precipitation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, extreme precipitation, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Extreme events, 020801 environmental engineering, Circulation (fluid dynamics), climate change, Flow (mathematics), 13. Climate action, Climatology, Environmental science, event attribution, Attribution
Abstract: International audience; We present a new method that allows a separation of the attribution of human influence in extreme events into changes in atmospheric flows and changes in other processes. Assuming two data sets of model simulations or observations representing a natural, or 'counter-factual' climate, and the actual, or 'factual' climate, we show how flow analogs used across data sets can provide quantitative estimates of each contribution to the changes in probabilities of extreme events. We apply this method to the extreme January precipitation amounts in Southern UK such as were observed in the winter of 2013/ 2014. Using large ensembles of an atmospheric model forced by factual and counterfactual sea surface temperatures, we demonstrate that about a third of the increase in January precipitation amounts can be attributed to changes in weather circulation patterns and two thirds of the increase to thermodynamic changes. This method can be generalized to many classes of events and regions and provides, in the above case study, similar results to those obtained in Schaller et al (2016 Nat. Clim. Change 6 627–34) who used a simple circulation index, describing only a local feature of the circulation, as in other methods using circulation indices (van Ulden and van Oldenborgh 2006 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6 863–81).
Published: 2016
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10. Land-atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEX evaluation experiments

Author: Knist , Sebastian, Goergen , Klaus, Buonomo , Erasmo, Christensen , Ole Bøssing, Colette , Augustin, Cardoso , Rita M., Fealy , Rowan, Fernández , Jesús, García-Díez , Markel, Jacob , Daniela, Kartsios , Stergios, Katragkou , Eleni, Keuler , Klaus, Mayer , Stephanie, Van Meijgaard , Erik, Nikulin , Grigory, Soares , Pedro M. M., Sobolowski , Stefan, Szepszo , Gabriella, Teichmann , Claas, Vautard , Robert, Warrach-Sagi , Kirsten, Wulfmeyer , Volker, Simmer , Clemens, Centre de recherche public Gabriel Lippmann, Centre de Recherche Public Gabriel Lippmann, Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute ( DMI ), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques ( INERIS ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Rural Economy and Development Programme, Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority, Spanish National Institute for Agriculture and Food Research and Technology ( INIA ), Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria, Instituto de Física de Cantabria, Macquarie Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2009, Australia, Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Brandenburg University of Technology, ARVALIS - Institut du Végétal, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI ), Centro de Computação Gráfica ( CCG ), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research ( BCCR ), University of Bergen ( UIB ), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] ( GERICS ), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht ( GKSS ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Institut für Physik und Meteorologie [Stuttgart] ( IPM ), Universität Hohenheim, Meteorological Institute University Bonn, Centre de Recherche Public - Gabriel Lippmann (LUXEMBOURG), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Texas A&M University System, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria = National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), ARVALIS - Institut du végétal [Paris], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Centro de Computação Gráfica (CCG), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut für Physik und Meteorologie [Stuttgart] (IPM), Meteorological Institute [Bonn], Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Brandenburgische Technische Universität = Brandenburg Technical University (BTU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, ddc:550, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience; Interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere play a fundamental role in the weather and climate system. Here we present a comparison of summertime land-atmosphere coupling strength found in a subset of the ERA-Interim-driven European domain Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) model ensemble (1989-2008). Most of the regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce the overall soil moisture interannual variability, spatial patterns, and annual cycles of surface exchange fluxes for the different European climate zones suggested by the observational Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) and FLUXNET data sets. However, some RCMs differ substantially from FLUXNET observations for some regions. The coupling strength is quantified by the correlation between the surface sensible and the latent heat flux, and by the correlation between the latent heat flux and 2 m temperature. The first correlation is compared to its estimate from the few available long-term European high-quality FLUXNET observations, and the latter to results from gridded GLEAM data. The RCM simulations agree with both observational datasets in the large-scale pattern characterized by strong coupling in southern Europe and weak coupling in northern Europe. However, in the transition zone from strong to weak coupling covering large parts of central Europe many of the RCMs tend to overestimate the coupling strength in comparison to both FLUXNET and GLEAM. The RCM ensemble spread is caused primarily by the different land surface models applied, and by the model-specific weather conditions resulting from different atmospheric parameterizations.
Published: 2016
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11. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts

Author: Chris Huntingford, Alison L. Kay, Simon Wilson, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, David Wallom, Peter A. Stott, Robert Vautard, Ian Ashpole, Jonathan Miller, S. M. Crooks, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Neil Massey, Sarah Sparrow, Jessica Skeggs, Andy Bowery, Rob Lamb, Nathalie Schaller, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Myles R. Allen, Pascal Yiou, Antje Weisheimer, Friederike E. L. Otto, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford, Centre de Recherche en Cancérologie de Lyon (UNICANCER/CRCL), Centre Léon Bérard [Lyon]-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Computing Laboratory (OUCL), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Mathematik in den Naturwissenschaften (MPI-MiS), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Royal United Hospital, Australian Resources Research Centre, Kensington, Yale School of Medicine [New Haven, Connecticut] (YSM), The MITRE corporation, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), University of Oxford [Oxford], Centre de Recherche en Cancérologie de Lyon ( CRCL ), Centre Léon Bérard [Lyon]-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 ( UCBL ), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Computing Laboratory ( OUCL ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Max-Planck-Institut für Mathematik in den Naturwissenschaften, Leipzig ( MPI-MATH ), Max-Planck-Institut, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology ( CEH ), Natural Environment Research Council ( NERC ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] ( CEH ), Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), Yale School of Medicine, Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Yale University School of Medicine
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Hydrological modelling, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Drainage basin, 02 engineering and technology, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Meteorology and Climatology, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Precipitation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Flood myth, Flooding (psychology), Storm, 6. Clean water, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Snowmelt, Environmental science, Climate model, Hydrology, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: A succession of storms reaching Southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.
Published: 2016
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12. The impact of model grid zooming on tracer transport in the 1999/2000 Arctic polar vortex

Author: Maarten Krol, M. M. P. van den Broek, A. Bregman, Tom Gardiner, Jos Lelieveld, M. K. van Aalst, S. Garcelon, Geoffrey C. Toon, Roderic L. Jones, G. M. Hansford, SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research ( SRON ), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] ( IMAU ), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie ( MPIC ), Jet Propulsion Laboratory ( JPL ), NASA-California Institute of Technology ( CALTECH ), University of Cambridge [UK] ( CAM ), National Physical Laboratory [Teddington] ( NPL ), EGU, Publication, SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (IMAU), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie (MPIC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), and National Physical Laboratory [Teddington] (NPL)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Chemistry, Diabatic, Atmospheric sciences, lcsh:QC1-999, Vortex, lcsh:Chemistry, Arctic, lcsh:QD1-999, Polar vortex, TRACER, Potential temperature, Stratosphere, Air mass, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: International audience; We have used a 3D chemistry transport model to evaluate the transport of HF and CH4 in the stratosphere during the Arctic winter of 1999/2000. Several model experiments were carried out with the use of a zoom algorithm to investigate the effect of different horizontal resolutions. Balloon-borne and satellite-borne observations of HF and CH4 were used to test the model. In addition, air mass descent rates within the polar vortex were calculated and compared to observations. Outside the vortex the model results agree well with the observations, but inside the vortex the model underestimates the observed vertical gradient in HF and CH4, even when the highest available resolution (1º x 1º) is applied. The calculated diabatic descent rates agree with observations above potential temperature levels of 450 K. These model results suggest that too strong mixing through the vortex edge could be a plausible cause for the model discrepancies, associated with the calculated mass fluxes, although other reasons are also discussed. Based on our model experiments we conclude that a global 6º x 9º resolution is too coarse to represent the polar vortex, whereas the higher resolutions, 3º x 2º and 1º x 1º, yield similar results, even with a 6º x 9º resolution in the tropical region.
Published: 2003

13. Evaluation of convection-permitting extreme precipitation simulations for the south of France

Author: Linh N. Luu, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Développements et Etudes Climatologiques, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques (DCSC/DEC) (DCSC/DEC), Direction de la climatologie et des services climatiques (DCSC), and Météo-France -Météo-France
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: In the autumn, the French Mediterranean area is frequently exposed to heavy precipitation events whose daily accumulation can exceed 300 mm. One of the key processes contributing to these precipitation amounts is deep convection, which can be explicitly resolved by state-of-the-art convection-permitting models to reproduce heavy rainfall events that are comparable to observations. This approach has been tested and performed at climate scale in several studies in recent decades for different areas. In this research, we investigate the added value of using an ensemble of three climate simulations at convection-permitting resolution (approx. 3 km) to replicate extreme precipitation events at both daily and shorter timescales over the south of France. These three convection-permitting simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. They are forced by three EURO-CORDEX simulations, which are also run with WRF at the resolution of 0.11∘ (approx. 12 km). We found that a convection-permitting approach provides a more realistic representation of extreme daily and 3-hourly rainfall in comparison with EURO-CORDEX simulations. Their similarity to observations allows use for climate change studies and its impacts.
Published: 2022
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14. Decision-support for land reclamation location and design choices in the Maldives

Author: Thomas van der Pol, Geronimo Gussmann, Jochen Hinkel, Angel Amores, Marta Marcos, Jeremy Rohmer, Erwin Lambert, Alexander Bisaro, Global Climate Forum e.V., Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados (IMEDEA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC)-Universidad de las Islas Baleares (UIB), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), European Project: No 690462,INSeaPTION, and European Project: 869304,PROTECT
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Flood risk management, Geography, Planning and Development, Coastal protection, Cost-benefit analysis, Climate change adaptation, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Land reclamation, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Sea level rise, Deep uncertainty, Maldives, Reliability analysis
Abstract: International audience; Land reclamation in the Maldives is widespread. Current land reclamation practices, however, lack a systematic approach to anticipate sea-level rise and do not account for local flood risk differences to inform location and design choices. To address these limitations, this paper applies two decision-support tools: a hazard threshold analysis, and a cost-benefit analysis. Both tools produce site-specific estimates of land elevations or flood defence heights but do so for different goals. The hazard threshold analysis identifies hazard-based solutions that meet an acceptable flood probability for an intended lifespan without follow-up actions by reliability optimisation. The cost-benefit analysis identifies risk-based solutions using dynamic programming. We apply both tools to two land reclamation sites, a newly reclaimed airport island and a land extension of an inhabited island, in the Maldives. We find that total hazard-based heights for long-term planning horizons are highly uncertain, with local height differences of up to 1.9 m across sealevel rise scenarios by 2100. Risk-based Island elevations, in contrast, differ much less across scenarios, offering a practical advantage for decision-making. However, land reclamation choices on location, land elevation and investment in flood protection are not only driven by hazardrelated aspects, such as reef characteristics, swell exposure, and sea-level rise, but also by estimates of exposed assets, reclamation, and flood protection costs. Taken together, the two decision-support tools are helpful for improving adaptation decisions and are also applicable in other small island regions.
Published: 2023
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15. PARMIO: A Reference Quality Model for Ocean Surface Emissivity and Backscatter from the Microwave to the Infrared

Author: Emmanuel Dinnat, Stephen English, Catherine Prigent, Lise Kilic, Magdalena Anguelova, Stuart Newman, Thomas Meissner, Jacqueline Boutin, Ad Stoffelen, Simon Yueh, Ben Johnson, Fuzhong Weng, Carlos Jimenez, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), LERMA Cergy (LERMA), Laboratoire d'Etude du Rayonnement et de la Matière en Astrophysique et Atmosphères = Laboratory for Studies of Radiation and Matter in Astrophysics and Atmospheres (LERMA), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-CY Cergy Paris Université (CY)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-CY Cergy Paris Université (CY), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Met Office Climate Research Division, United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Remote Sensing Systems [Santa Rosa] (RSS), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and Estellus
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2023
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16. Satellite remote sensing of surface winds, waves, and currents: Where are we now?

Author: Danièle Hauser, Saleh Abdalla, Fabrice Ardhuin, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, Mark Bourassa, David Cotton, Christine Gommenginger, Hayley Evers-King, Harald Johnsen, John Knaff, Samantha Lavender, Alexis Mouche, Nicolas Reul, Charles Sampson, Edward C.C Steele, Ad Stoffelen, SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University [Tallahassee] (FSU), National Oceanographic Centre Southampton (NOCS), European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), NORCE Norwegian Research Center, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Subjects: Ocean, surface current, Atmosphere, satellite, surface wind, Remote sensing, Surface waves, Surface current, ocean, surface waves, remote sensing, Geophysics, Satellite, Geochemistry and Petrology, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], atmosphere, Surface wind
Abstract: International audience; This review paper reports on the state-of-the-art concerning observations of surface winds, waves and currents from space and their use for scientific research and subsequent applications. The development of observations of sea state parameters from space dates back to the 1970s, with a significant increase in the number and diversity of space missions since the 1990s. Sensors used to monitor the sea-state parameters from space are mainly based on microwave techniques. They are either specifically designed to monitor surface parameters or are used for their abilities to provide opportunistic measurements complementary to their primary purpose. The principles on which is based the estimation of the sea surface parameters are first described, including the performance and limitations of each method. Numerous examples and references on the use of these observations for scientific and operational applications are then given. The richness and diversity of these applications are linked to the importance of knowledge of the sea state in many fields. Firstly, surface wind, waves and currents are significant factors influencing exchanges at the air/sea interface, impacting oceanic and atmospheric boundary layers, contributing to sea level rise at the coasts, and interacting with the sea-ice formation or destruction in the polar zones. Secondly, ocean surface currents combined with wind-and wave-induced drift contribute to the transport of heat, salt and pollutants. Waves and surface currents also impact sediment transport and erosion in coastal areas. For operational applications, observations of surface parameters are necessary on the one hand to constrain the numerical solutions of predictive models (numerical wave, oceanic or atmospheric models), and on the other hand to validate their results. In turn, these predictive models are used to guarantee safe, efficient and successful offshore operations, including the commercial shipping and energy sector, as well as tourism and coastal activities. Long time series of global sea-state observations are also becoming increasingly important to analyze the impact of climate change on our environment. All these aspects are recalled in the article, relating to both historical and contemporary activities in these fields. Article Highlights • The different techniques and satellite missions to monitor winds, waves and currents at the ocean surface from space are described • Sea-state observations from space are widely used in operational meteorology, as well as for research on ocean, atmosphere and climate processes • Sea-state observations from space are also actively used by the offshore industry, as well as in coastal zone management
Published: 2023
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17. Top-down estimates of European CH4 and N2O emissions based on four different inverse models

Author: Bergamaschi, P., Corazza, M., Karstens, U., Athanassiadou, M., Thompson, L., Pison, I., Manning, A., Bousquet, P., Segers, A., Vermeulen, A., Janssens-Maenhout, G., Schmidt, M., Ramonet, M., Meinhardt, F., Aalto, T., Haszpra, L., Moncrieff, J., Popa, E., Lowry, D., Steinbacher, M., Jordan, A., O'Doherty, S., Piacentino, S., Dlugokencky, E., JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Umweltbundesamt, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Hungarian Meteorological Service P.O. Box 39, School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Department of Earth Sciences [Egham], Royal Holloway [University of London] (RHUL), Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology [Dübendorf] (EMPA), School of Chemistry, University of Bristol [Bristol], National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Sub Atmospheric physics and chemistry, Marine and Atmospheric Research, JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability ( IES ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie ( MPI-BGC ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), ESIM - Déterminants Sociaux de la Santé et du Recours aux Soins ( DS3 ), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale ( INSERM ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Service des Photons, Atomes et Molécules ( SPAM ), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ), Finnish Meteorological Institute ( FMI ), Department of Earth Sciences [London], Royal Holloway [University of London] ( RHUL ), Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology [Dübendorf] ( EMPA ), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ)
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric pollution, Emission inventory, Earth / Environmental, Modeling, CAS - Climate, Air and Sustainability, Environment, lcsh:QC1-999, lcsh:Chemistry, Europe, lcsh:QD1-999, Urban Development, Pollution monitoring, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ELSS - Earth, Life and Social Sciences, Built Environment, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, lcsh:Physics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience; European CH 4 and N 2 O emissions are estimated for 2006 and 2007 using four inverse modelling systems, based on different global and regional Eulerian and La-grangian transport models. This ensemble approach is designed to provide more realistic estimates of the overall uncertainties in the derived emissions, which is particularly important for verifying bottom-up emission inventories. We use continuous observations from 10 European stations (including 5 tall towers) for CH 4 and 9 continuous stations for N 2 O, complemented by additional European and global discrete air sampling sites. The available observations mainly constrain CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from northwestern and eastern Europe. The inversions are strongly driven by the observations and the derived total emissions of larger countries show little dependence on the emission inventories used a priori. Three inverse models yield 26-56 % higher total CH 4 emissions from northwestern and eastern Europe compared Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 716 P. Bergamaschi et al.: Top-down estimates of European CH 4 and N 2 O emissions to bottom-up emissions reported to the UNFCCC, while one model is close to the UNFCCC values. In contrast, the inverse modelling estimates of European N 2 O emissions are in general close to the UNFCCC values, with the overall range from all models being much smaller than the UNFCCC uncertainty range for most countries. Our analysis suggests that the reported uncertainties for CH 4 emissions might be underestimated , while those for N 2 O emissions are likely overestimated .
Published: 2015
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18. Heat extremes in Western Europe are increasing faster than simulated due to missed atmospheric circulation trends

Author: Vautard, R., Cattiaux, J., Happé, T., Singh, J., Bonnet, R., Cassou, C., Coumou, D., D'Andrea, F., Faranda, Davide, Fischer, E., Ribes, A., Sippel, S., Yiou, P., Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ANR-20-CE01-0008,SAMPRACE,Simuler des Evenements Climatiques Rares(2020), European Project: 101003469,XAIDA, and Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique - CERFACS (CERFACS)
Subjects: climate change, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Extreme event attribution, Heat waves, climate extremes
Abstract: Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at global scale [1,2], with a rapid rate in several regions including Western Europe [3]. Climate models broadly capture heat trends globally [1], but exhibit systematically weaker extreme heat trends than observations in Western Europe [4-6], together with a weaker summer warming [7,8]. The causes of this mismatch, confirmed here by the analysis of 273 latest generation coupled climate simulations, among which only a handful of them overpass observed trends, are not well understood. Here we use a circulation analogue approach [9,10] to identify the dynamical contribution to daily maximum temperature trends [11-12], and show that a substantial fraction (0.8°C [0.2°-1.4°C] of 3.4°C per global warming degree) of the trend is due to circulation changes, largely due to increases in southerly flows over Western Europe. Their rapid increase in frequency (+43% per global warming degree [10%-76%] since 1950) and persistence are largely underestimated in the 32 climate model flow simulations analyzed, as well as their overall dynamical contributions to temperature trends. The few simulations reaching the observed warming trends in extreme heat have weaker and non-significant dynamical changes, indicating compensating biases in dynamical and thermodynamical trends. These model biases in circulation trends can be due to a systematically underestimated or erroneous representation of the circulation response to external forcing, or to a systematic underestimation of interdecadal variability, or both. The former implies that future projections are too conservative, the latter that we are left with deep uncertainty regarding the pace of future summer heat in Europe: the current strong trend could weaken or increase in future decades. This calls for caution when interpreting climate projections of heat extremes over Western Europe, in particular in view of adaptation to heat waves.
Published: 2023

19. Climate control of terrestrial carbon exchange across biomes and continents

Author: Susumu Yamamoto, Tilden P. Meyers, Roberto Zampedri, Sonia Wharton, Krisztina Pintér, Nobuko Saigusa, Christopher B. Williams, Danilo Dragoni, João Pereira, Marc Aubinet, Gregory Starr, Janne Rinne, Jörgen Sagerfors, Alan Barr, Robert Clement, Mario B. S. Siqueira, Nina Buchmann, Lindsay B. Hutley, Laurent Misson, Jingxin Wang, Peter S. Curtis, Xinquan Zhao, Gabriel G. Katul, Leonardo Montagnani, Anders Lindroth, Thomas Foken, Stephen G. Pallardy, Haiqiang Guo, Tuomas Laurila, Casimiro Pio, M. Myklebust, Alessandro Araújo, John D. Albertson, Philippe Ciais, Christoph S. Vogel, Russell K. Monson, Werner L. Kutsch, James T. Randerson, Mika Aurela, Giorgio Matteucci, Chuixiang Yi, Ronald J. Ryel, Andrew Black, J. William Munger, Meelis Moelder, Eric Dufrêne, Christian Feigenwinter, Corinna Rebmann, Torbjoern Johansson, Fred C. Bosveld, Jiquan Chen, Benjamin Loubet, Alexander Knohl, Timothy A. Martin, J. Fuhrer, Nicolas Delpierre, Andreas Ibrom, Michael L. Goulden, Zoltán Barcza, Albin Hammerle, John Tenhunen, Lawrence B. Flanagan, Giovanni Manca, John Wolbeck, Mark A. Sutton, Paul Berbigier, Guirui Yu, William J. Massman, Ankur R. Desai, Eddy Moors, Mukufute M. Mukelabai, Christof Ammann, Hank A. Margolis, Lianhong Gu, Bernard Heinesch, Mats Nilsson, Allison L. Dunn, Ray Leuning, Zoltán Nagy, D. Bryan Dail, Shaoqiang Wang, Celso von Randow, Carole Helfter, Jason Beringer, Guenther Seufert, John Moncrieff, Hans Peter Schmid, Gerard Kiely, Luis Aires, Juha-Pekka Tuovinen, André Granier, Thomas Gruenwald, Bruce D. Cook, Georg Wohlfahrt, Thomas Kolb, Shijie Han, Xiyan Xu, Pierre Cellier, Michal V. Marek, Allen H. Goldstein, Xuefa Wen, M. S. J. Broadmeadow, Serge Rambal, Paul V. Bolstad, Ram Oren, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Tha Paw U Kyaw, Werner Eugster, Sean P. Burns, Zoltán Tuba, M. Altaf Arain, Riccardo Valentini, Corinne Jacobs, Heping Liu, Christine Moureaux, Weiguo Wang, Marjan Jongen, Runze Li, Gabriel Pita, Bin Zhao, Nigel T. Roulet, Niall P. Hanan, Christian Bernhofer, Walter C. Oechel, Harry McCaughey, Bert G. Drake, Lutz Merbold, M. Montes-Helu, Peter M. Lafleur, Asko Noormets, Jean-François Soussana, John M. Frank, Katja Klumpp, Giuseppe-Scarascia Mugnozza, Jan Elbers, Sabina Dore, Dimmie Hendriks, Mirco Migliavacca, María José Sanz, Franco Miglietta, Roser Matamala, László Haszpra, Lisa R. Welp, Damiano Gianelle, Matthew Wilkinson, Kim Pilegaard, Federica Rossi, Thomas L. Powell, Jingming Chen, Ebba Dellwik, Matthias Falk, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Queens College, City University of New York [New York] (CUNY), Environmental Sciences Division [Oak Ridge], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System-Penn State System, Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), CESAM and Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Technology and Management, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University [Durham], Agroscope, School of Geography and Earth Sciences [Hamilton ON], McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario], Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA), Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Unit of Biosystem Physics, Université de Liège, Climate and Global Change Research [Helsinki], Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Department of Meteorology [Budapest], Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences [Budapest], Faculty of Sciences [Budapest], Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE)-Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE)-Faculty of Sciences [Budapest], Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE)-Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Écologie fonctionnelle et physique de l'environnement (EPHYSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University [Clayton], Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology [Dresden], Technische Universität Dresden = Dresden University of Technology (TU Dresden), Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia (UBC), University of Minnesota [Twin Cities] (UMN), University of Minnesota System, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Forest Research, Institute of Plant Science, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Environnement et Grandes Cultures (EGC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Department of Geography, University of Toronto, Department of Environmental Sciences [Toledo USA], University of Toledo, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, Ohio State University [Columbus] (OSU), Department of Plant, Soil, and Environmental Science, University of Maine, Wind Energy Division [Roskilde], Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy (Risø DTU), Danmarks Tekniske Universitet = Technical University of Denmark (DTU)-Danmarks Tekniske Universitet = Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Madison], University of Wisconsin-Madison, School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], Atmospheric Science Program, Department of Geography, Indiana University [Bloomington], Indiana University System-Indiana University System, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC), Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Physical and Earth Science, Worcester State College, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Department of Land, Air and Water Resources, University of California [Davis] (UC Davis), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Institute for Meteorology, Climatology and Remote Sensing [Basel], University of Basel (Unibas), Department of Biological Sciences, University of Lethbridge, Micrometeorology Group [Bayreuth], Universität Bayreuth, Rocky Mountain Research Station, United States Department of Agriculture, Environment and Natural Resources Area, Istituto Agrario di San Michele all'Adige (IASMA), Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] (ESPM), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestières [devient SILVA en 2018] (EEF), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Lorraine (UL), Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering [Shanghai], Institute of Biodiversity Science at Fudan University [Shanghai] (IBSFU), Institute of Ecology, Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory [Fort Collins] (NREL), Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Department of Hydrology and Geo-Environmental Sciences [Amsterdam], Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), School of Environmental and Life Sciences, Charles Darwin University, Biosystems Division [Roskilde], Earth System Science and Climate Change Group, Geobiosphere Science Centre, Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University [Lund], Instituto Superior de Agronomia [Lisboa] (ISA), Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), School of the Environment, Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, University College Cork (UCC), Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP), Institut für Agrarrelevante Klimaforschung, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI), Trent University, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Department of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences and Geoscience [Jackson], Jackson State University (JSU), Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research (IIA), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Division of Ecosystems Processes Lab. of Plants Ecological Physiology, Institute of Systems Biology and Ecology, Centre d'études de la forêt Faculté de Foresterie et de Géomatique, Université Laval [Québec] (ULaval), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Biosciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory [Lemont] (ANL), Queen's University [Kingston, Canada], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, ARL Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division (ATD), NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Remote Sensing of Environmental Dynamics Laboratory, DISAT, Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI), Instituto di Biometeorologia, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado [Boulder], Servizi Forestali, Agenzia per l'Ambiente, Autonomous Province of Bolzano (APB), Faculty of Sciences and Technologies, Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Unit of Crops Management, Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD), Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Cambridge, USA] (EPS), Harvard University, Institute of Botany and Ecophysiology, Agricultural University of Gödöllô, Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University [Raleigh] (NC State), University of North Carolina System (UNC)-University of North Carolina System (UNC), Department of Biology [San Diego State Univ] (Biology SDSU), San Diego State University (SDSU), Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Department of Forestry, University of Missouri [Columbia] (Mizzou), University of Missouri System-University of Missouri System, Atmospheric Science Group, LAWR, CESAM and Department of Environment, Universidade de Aveiro, Mechanical Engineering Department, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST), The Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Earth System Science Center, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Department of Physics, Department of Geography [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University (USU), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterraneo, Department of Agronomy, Forestry and Land Use, Agricultural Research Council (CRA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Collège de Direction (CODIR), University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa] (UA), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Edinburgh] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Department of Plant Ecology, Department of Forest Environment and Resources, Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], Biological Station, University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, chine, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, IMSG@National Center for Environmental Predictions, Geosciences Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California (UC), Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division (AEED), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Graduate Degree Program in Geography, Clark University, Okayama University, Northwest Plateau Institute of Biology, City University of New-York [New-York] ( CUNY ), Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, PennState University [Pennsylvania] ( PSU ), Department of Forest Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences ( SLU ), Duke university [Durham], School of Geography and Earth Sciences, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate Change Research, Department Meteorology [Budapest], Eötvös Loránd University ( ELTE ) -Eötvös Loránd University ( ELTE ), Écologie fonctionnelle et physique de l'environnement ( EPHYSE - UR1263 ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Technische Universität Dresden ( TUD ), University of British Columbia ( UBC ), University of Minnesota [Minneapolis], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich ( ETH Zürich ), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] ( NCAR ), Environnement et Grandes Cultures ( EGC ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Department of Environmental Sciences, Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Ohio State University [Columbus] ( OSU ), Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy ( Risø DTU ), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] ( DTU ) -Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] ( DTU ), University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution ( ESE ), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 ( UP11 ) -AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), University of California Davis, Institute for Meteorology, Climatology and Remote Sensing, University of Basel ( Unibas ), Department of Micrometeorology, University of Bayreuth, Istituto Agrario di San Michele all'Adige ( IASMA ), Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California [Berkeley], Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] ( ESS ), University of California [Irvine] ( UCI ), Ecologie et Ecophysiologie Forestières [devient SILVA en 2018] ( EEF ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université de Lorraine ( UL ), Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Department of Meteorology, Institute of Biodiversity Science at Fudan University [Shanghai] ( IBSFU ), University of Innsbruck, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] ( CSU ), Hungarian Meteorological Service ( OMSz ), Department of Hydrology and Geo-Environmental Sciences, University of Amsterdam [Amsterdam] ( UvA ), Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, University College Cork, UR 0874 Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial ( UREP ) -Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques ( EFPA ), Finnish Meteorological Institute ( FMI ), Marine and Atmospheric Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Department of Physics, Atmospheric Sciences and Geoscience, Jackson State University, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research ( IIA ), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche [Roma] ( CNR ), Université Laval, University of Florida [Gainesville], Argonne National Laboratory [Lemont] ( ANL ), Queen's University [Kingston], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, Università degli studi di Milano [Milano], Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), University of Colorado Boulder [Boulder], Autonomous Province of Bolzano ( APB ), Zambia Meteorological Department ( ZMD ), Division of Engineering and Applied Science, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, North Carolina State University [Raleigh] ( NCSU ), Department of Biology [San Diego], San Diego State University ( SDSU ), University of Missouri ( Saisissez le sigle en majuscules sans points ), University of Aveiro, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa ( IST ), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive ( CEFE ), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 ( UM3 ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -École pratique des hautes études ( EPHE ) -Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] ( INRA Montpellier ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD [France-Sud] ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais ( INPE ), Université McGill, Utah State University ( USU ), Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies ( NIES ), Agricultural Research Council ( CRA ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung ( IMK-IFU ), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability ( IES ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), UAR 0233 Collège de Direction, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Direction Collégiale ( DCOLL ) -Collège de Direction ( CODIR ), University of Alabama [Tuscaloosa] ( UA ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Edinburgh] ( CEH ), Natural Environment Research Council ( NERC ), Tuscia University, University of California, Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Écologie fonctionnelle et physique de l'environnement (EPHYSE - UR1263), Technische Universität Dresden (TUD), University of Minnesota [Twin Cities], AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU)-Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), University of California-University of California, University of California [Irvine] (UCI), Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSz), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial (UREP)-Ecologie des Forêts, Prairies et milieux Aquatiques (EFPA), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche [Roma] (CNR), Harvard University [Cambridge], University of Missouri [Columbia], Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3), McGill University, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Direction Collégiale (DCOLL)-Collège de Direction (CODIR), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UM3)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Università degli Studi di Milano [Milano] (UNIMI), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Hydrology and Geo-environmental sciences, and Earth and Climate
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Biome, UNCERTAINTY, Carbon sequestration, eddy flux photosynthesis, soil respiration, 01 natural sciences, Biomes, EDDY FUX, Soil respiration, SDG 13 - Climate Action, CWK - Earth System Science and Climate Change, Wageningen Environmental Research, Biosystemer, Photosynthesis, uncertainty, TEMPERATURE, SDG 15 - Life on Land, General Environmental Science, Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, changement climatique, Respiration, Temperature, Dryness, Global Carbon Cycle, TERRESTRIAL CARBON SEQUESTRATION, facteur climatique, Forestry, Climate Control, deciduous forest, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, fluxes, RESPIRATION, Climatology, Terrestrial ecosystem, eddy-covariance measurements, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, CLIMATE CONTROL, BIOMES, SOIL RESPIRATION, DIOXIDE, cycle du carbone, Carbon Sequestration, FLUXES, effet de serre, LONG-TERM, interannual variability, SPATIAL VARIABILITY, education, water-vapor, Eddy covariance, DRYNESS, Miljø og klima, Eddy Fluxes, 114 Physical sciences, écosystème, Ecosystems, Carbon cycle, NET ECOSYSTEM EXCHANGE, NEE, climate control, terrestrial carbon sequestration, temperature, dryness, eddy flux, biomes, photosynthesis, respiration, global carbon cycle, dioxide, bilan de carbone, température, Ecosystem, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Nee, long-term, [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], EDDY-COVARIANCE MEASUREMENTS, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, PHOTOSYNTHESIS, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Carbon Dioxide, 15. Life on land, CWC - Earth System Science and Climate Change, Carbon, DECIDUOUS FOREST, GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE, flux, WATER-VAPOR, 13. Climate action, Atmospheric Chemistry, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Eddy ﬂux, spatial variability
Abstract: Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes and continents are lacking. Here we present data describing the relationships between net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) and climate factors as measured using the eddy covariance method at 125 unique sites in various ecosystems over six continents with a total of 559 site-years. We find that NEE observed at eddy covariance sites is (1) a strong function of mean annual temperature at mid-and high-latitudes, (2) a strong function of dryness at mid-and low-latitudes, and (3) a function of both temperature and dryness around the mid-latitudinal belt (45 degrees N). The sensitivity of NEE to mean annual temperature breaks down at similar to 16 degrees C (a threshold value of mean annual temperature), above which no further increase of CO2 uptake with temperature was observed and dryness influence overrules temperature influence.
Published: 2010
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20. Technical Note: Four-dimensional variational data assimilation for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions: method and comparison with synthesis inversion

Author: Meirink, J. F., Bergamaschi, P., Krol, M. C., Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht ( IMAU ), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research ( SRON ), EGU, Publication, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (IMAU), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), and SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 13. Climate action, 010103 numerical & computational mathematics, 0101 mathematics, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: A four-dimensional variational (4D-var) data assimilation system for inverse modelling of atmospheric methane emissions is presented. The system is based on the TM5 atmospheric transport model. It can be used for assimilating large volumes of measurements, in particular satellite observations and quasi-continuous in-situ observations, and at the same time it enables the optimization of a large number of model parameters, specifically grid-scale emission rates. Furthermore, the variational method allows to estimate uncertainties in posterior emissions. Here, the system is applied to optimize monthly methane emissions over a 1-year time window on the basis of surface observations from the NOAA-ESRL network. The results are rigorously compared with an analogous inversion by Bergamaschi et al. (2007), which was based on the traditional synthesis approach. The posterior emissions as well as their uncertainties obtained in both inversions show a high degree of consistency. At the same time we illustrate the advantage of 4D-Var in reducing aggregation errors by optimizing emissions at the grid scale of the transport model. The full potential of the assimilation system is exploited in Meirink et al. (2008), who use satellite observations of column-averaged methane mixing ratios to optimize emissions at high spatial resolution, taking advantage of the zooming capability of the TM5 model.
Published: 2008
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21. Regional evaluation of the performance of the global CAMS chemical modeling system over the United States (IFS cycle 47r1)

Author: Idir Bouarar, Béatrice Josse, Timo Schreurs, J. E. Williams, Virginie Marécal, Sophie Pelletier, Mehdi Meziane, Vincent Huijnen, Johannes Flemming, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Institut Lumière Matière [Villeurbanne] (ILM), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
Subjects: Troposphere, Data assimilation, Integrated Forecast System, Reactive nitrogen, Atmospheric chemistry, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, General Medicine, Atmospheric sciences, Air quality index, Aerosol, Trace gas
Abstract: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides routine analyses and forecasts of trace gases and aerosols on a global scale. The core is the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), where modules for atmospheric chemistry and aerosols have been introduced and which allows for data assimilation of satellite retrievals of composition. We have updated both the homogeneous and heterogeneous NOx chemistry applied in the three independent tropospheric–stratospheric chemistry modules maintained within CAMS, referred to as IFS(CB05BASCOE), IFS(MOCAGE) and IFS(MOZART). Here we focus on the evaluation of main trace gas products from these modules that are of interest as markers of air quality, namely lower-tropospheric O3, NO2 and CO, with a regional focus over the contiguous United States. Evaluation against lower-tropospheric composition reveals overall good performance, with chemically induced biases within 10 ppb across species for regions within the US with respect to a range of observations. The versions show overall equal or better performance than the CAMS reanalysis, which includes data assimilation. Evaluation of surface air quality aspects shows that annual cycles are captured well, albeit with variable seasonal biases. During wintertime conditions there is a large model spread between chemistry schemes in lower-tropospheric O3 (∼ 10 %–35 %) and, in turn, oxidative capacity related to NOx lifetime differences. Analysis of differences in the HNO3 and PAN formation, which act as reservoirs for reactive nitrogen, revealed a general underestimate in PAN formation over polluted regions, likely due to too low organic precursors. Particularly during wintertime, the fraction of NO2 sequestered into PAN has a variability of 100 % across chemistry modules, indicating the need for further constraints. Notably, a considerable uncertainty in HNO3 formation associated with wintertime N2O5 conversion on wet particle surfaces remains. In summary, this study has indicated that the chemically induced differences in the quality of CAMS forecast products over the United States depends on season, trace gas, altitude and region. While analysis of the three chemistry modules in CAMS provide a strong handle on uncertainties associated with chemistry modeling, the further improvement of operational products additionally requires coordinated development involving emissions handling, chemistry and aerosol modeling, complemented with data-assimilation efforts.
Published: 2022
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22. Trace gas transport in the 1999/2000 Arctic winter: comparison of nudged GCM runs with observations

Author: Geoffrey C. Toon, Benedikt Steil, Tom Gardiner, A. Bregman, S. Garcelon, Jos Lelieveld, M. M. P. van den Broek, Ch. Brühl, Geert-Jan Roelofs, G. M. Hansford, Paul J. Crutzen, Roderic L. Jones, M. K. van Aalst, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] ( IMAU ), Utrecht University [Utrecht], SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research ( SRON ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie ( MPIC ), Jet Propulsion Laboratory ( JPL ), NASA-California Institute of Technology ( CALTECH ), University of Cambridge [UK] ( CAM ), National Physical Laboratory [Teddington] ( NPL ), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (IMAU), SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research (SRON), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie (MPIC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), National Physical Laboratory [Teddington] (NPL), and EGU, Publication
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Diabatic, Subsidence (atmosphere), Atmospheric model, Atmospheric sciences, lcsh:QC1-999, Trace gas, Vortex, lcsh:Chemistry, lcsh:QD1-999, Arctic, Polar vortex, Climatology, Stratosphere, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: International audience; We have compared satellite and balloon observations of methane (CH4) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) during the Arctic winter 1999/2000 with results from the MA-ECHAM4 middle atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). For this purpose, the meteorology in the model was nudged towards ECMWF analyses. This nudging technique is shown to work well for this middle atmospheric model, and offers good opportunities for the simulation of chemistry and transport processes. However, caution must be used inside the polar vortex, particularly late in the winter. The current study focuses on transport of HF and CH4, initialized with satellite measurements from the HALOE instrument aboard the UARS satellite. We have compared the model results with HALOE data and balloon measurements throughout the winter, and analyzed the uncertainties associated with tracer initialization, boundary conditions and the passive tracer assumption. This comparison shows that the model represents some aspects of the Arctic vortex well, including relatively small-scale features. However, while profiles outside the vortex match observations well, the model underestimates HF and overestimates CH4 concentrations inside the vortex, particularly in the middle stratosphere. This problem is also evident in a comparison of vortex descent rates based upon vortex average tracer profiles from MA-ECHAM4, and various observations. This could be due to an underestimate of diabatic subsidence in the model, or due to too much mixing between vortex and non-vortex air.
Published: 2003

23. Trends and inter-annual variability of methane emissions derived from 1979-1993 global CTM simulations

Author: Maarten Krol, P. F. J. van Velthoven, M. van Weele, Sander Houweling, Frank Dentener, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute ( KNMI ), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] ( IMAU ), Utrecht University [Utrecht], MPI Biogeochemistry, Earth and Climate, EGU, Publication, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research [Utrecht] (IMAU), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), and Max-Planck-Gesellschaft
Subjects: Methane emissions, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Ozone, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric sciences, Residual, Methane, lcsh:QC1-999, lcsh:Chemistry, chemistry.chemical_compound, chemistry, lcsh:QD1-999, Tropospheric photochemistry, Climatology, Ozone layer, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Environmental science, Biomass burning, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: International audience; The trend and interannual variability of methane sources are derived from multi-annual simulations of tropospheric photochemistry using a 3D global chemistry-transport model. Our semi-inverse analysis uses the fifteen years (1979 -1993) re-analysis of ECMWF meteorological data and annually varying including photo-chemistry, in conjunction with observed CH4 concentration distributions and trends derived from the NOAA-CMDL surface stations. Dividing the world in four zonal regions, (45-90 N, 0-45 N, 0-45 S; 45-90 S) we find good agreement in each region between (top-down) calculated emission trends from model simulations and (bottom-up) estimated anthropogenic emission trends based on the EDGAR global anthropogenic emission database, which amounts for the period 1979 -1993 2.7 Tg CH4 yr -1. Also the top-down determined total global methane emission compares well with the total of the bottom-up estimates. We use the difference between the bottom-up and top-down determined emission trends to calculate residual emissions. These residual emissions represent the inter-annual variability of the methane emissions. Simulations have been performed in which the year-to-year meteorology, the emissions of ozone precursor gases, and the stratospheric ozone column distribution are either varied, or kept constant. The analyses reveals that the variability of the emissions is of the order of 8 Tg CH4 yr -1, and most likely related to mid- and low-latitude wetland emissions and/or biomass burning. Indeed, a weak correlation is found between the residual emissions and regional scale temperatures.
Published: 2003
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24. Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO

Author: Haider Ali, Xiaofeng Li, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Jingjing Yu, Elizabeth Lewis, Selma B. Guerreiro, Stephen Blenkinsop, Geert Lenderink, Yafei Li, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Roberto Villalobos Herrera, Steven Chan, Newcastle University [Newcastle], Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), and United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter]
Subjects: Moisture availability, Atmospheric Science, Hourly precipitation intensity, Hourly precipitation extreme, Forcing (mathematics), Satellite precipitation, Walker circulation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Global distribution, Climatology, parasitic diseases, Precipitation total, Number of wet hours, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Precipitation, ENSO, Hourly precipitation frequency, Intensity (heat transfer)
Abstract: We investigate the global distribution of hourly precipitation and its connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using both satellite precipitation estimates and the global sub-daily rainfall gauge dataset. Despite limited moisture availability over continental surfaces, we find that the highest mean and extreme hourly precipitation intensity (HPI) values are mainly located over continents rather than over oceans, a feature that is not evident in daily or coarser resolution data. After decomposing the total precipitation into the product of the number of wet hours (NWH) and HPI, we find that ENSO modulates total precipitation mainly through the NWH, while its effects on HPI are more limited. The contrasting responses to ENSO in NWH and HPI is particularly apparent at the rising branches of the Pacific and Atlantic Walker Circulations, and is also notable over land-based gauges in Australia, Malaysia, the USA, Japan and Europe across the whole distribution of hourly precipitation (i.e. extreme, moderate and light precipitation). These results provide new insights into the global precipitation distribution and its response to ENSO forcing.
Published: 2020
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25. Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Author: Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Steven Turnock, Vaishali Naik, Sophie Szopa, Aristeidis K Georgoulias, Susanne E Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Larry W Horowitz, James Keeble, Philippe Le Sager, Fiona M O’Connor, Naga Oshima, Konstantinos Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of Leeds, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), NCAS-Climate [Cambridge], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM)-University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], P Z, D A and A K G would like acknowledge the funding from the Action titled 'National Network on Climate Change and its Impacts—CLIMPACT' which is implemented under the sub-project 3 of the project 'Infrastructure of national research networks in the fields of Precision Medicine, Quantum Technology and Climate Change', funded by the Public Investment Program of Greece, General Secretary of Research and Technology/Ministry of Development and Investments. S T would like to acknowledge the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. M D and N O were supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP18H03363, JP18H05292, JP19K12312, and JP20K04070), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II), Program Grant Number JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). J K was financially supported by NERC through NCAS (Grant No. R8/H12/83/003). FMO was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (Grant No. GA01101) and the EU Horizon 2020 Research Programme CRESCENDO project (Grant No. 641816)., and European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, penalty, climate change, surface ozone, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, benefit, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, CMIP6, General Environmental Science, ESMs
Abstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.
Published: 2022
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26. The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps

Author: P. M. M. Soares, J. A. M. Careto, Rita M. Cardoso, Klaus Goergen, Eleni Katragkou, Stefan Sobolowski, Erika Coppola, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belušić, Ségolène Berthou, Cécile Caillaud, Andreas Dobler, Øivind Hodnebrog, Stergios Kartsios, Geert Lenderink, T. Lorenz, Josipa Milovac, Hendrik Feldmann, Emanuela Pichelli, Heimo Truhetz, Marie Estelle Demory, Hylke de Vries, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Klaus Keuler, Mario Raffa, Merja Tölle, Kevin Sieck, Sophie Bastin, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), Instituto Dom Luiz, Agrosphere, IBG-3, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems (HPSC TerrSys), Department of Meteorology and Climatology [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck [Innsbruck], Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Department of Geophysics [Zagreb], Faculty of Science [Zagreb], University of Zagreb-University of Zagreb, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), NORCE Norwegian Research Center, Instituto de Física de Cantabria (IFCA), Universidad de Cantabria [Santander]-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Institute of Physics and Meteorology [Stuttgart] (IPM), University of Hohenheim, Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg] (BTU), REgional Model and geo-Hydrological Impacts (REMHI), Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Center for Environmental Systems Research [Kassel] (CESR), Universität Kassel [Kassel], Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Earth sciences, Atmospheric Science, Kilometre-scale resolution, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Probability density functions, ddc:550, Regional climate modelling, Maximum and minimum temperature, Added value
Abstract: The increase in computational resources has enabled the emergence of multi-model ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) simulations at very high horizontal resolutions. An example is the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on “Convective phenomena at high resolution over Europe and the Mediterranean”, a set of kilometre-scale simulations over an extended Alpine domain. This first-of-its-kind multi-model ensemble, forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis, can be considered a benchmark dataset. This study uses a recently proposed metric to determine the added value of all the available Flagship Pilot Study hindcast kilometre-scale simulations for maximum and minimum temperature. The analysis is performed using state-of-the-art gridded and station observations as ground truth. This approach directly assesses the added value between the high-resolution CPRCMs against their driving global simulations and coarser resolution RCM counterparts. Overall, models display some modest gains, but also considerable shortcomings are exhibited. In part, these deficiencies can be attributed to the assimilation of temperature observations into ERA-Interim. Although the gains for the use of kilometre-scale resolution for temperature are limited, the improvement of the spatial representation of local atmospheric circulations and land–atmosphere interactions can ultimately lead to gains, particularly in coastal areas. The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps publishedVersion
Published: 2022
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27. Impact of the COVID-19 economic downturn on tropospheric ozone trends: an uncertainty weighted data synthesis for quantifying regional anomalies above Western North America and Europe

Author: Kai‐Lan Chang, Owen R. Cooper, Audrey Gaudel, Marc Allaart, Gerard Ancellet, Hannah Clark, Sophie Godin‐Beekmann, Thierry Leblanc, Roeland Van Malderen, Philippe Nédélec, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, René Stübi, David W. Tarasick, Carlos Torres, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), In-Service Aircraft for a Global Observing System (IAGOS-AISBL), STRATO - LATMOS, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique [Bruxelles] - Royal Meteorological Institute (IRM), Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Izaña Atmospheric Research Center (IARC), and Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMet)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Economic downturn, COVID-19, General Medicine, Anomalies, Tropospheric ozone trends
Abstract: International audience; This study quantifies the association between the COVID-19 economic downturn and 2020 tropospheric ozone anomalies above Europe and western North America, and their impact on long-term trends. Anomaly detection for an atmospheric time series is usually carried out by identifying potentially aberrant data points relative to climatological values. However, detecting ozone anomalies from sparsely sampled ozonesonde profiles (once per week at most sites) is challenging due to ozone's high temporal variability. We first demonstrate the challenges for summarizing regional trends based on independent time series from multiple nearby ozone profiling stations. We then propose a novel regional-scale anomaly detection framework based on generalized additive mixed models, which accounts for the sampling frequency and inherent data uncertainty associated with each vertical profile data set, measured by ozonesondes, lidar or commercial aircraft. This method produces a long-term monthly time series with high vertical resolution that reports ozone anomalies from the surface to the middle-stratosphere under a unified framework, which can be used to quantify the regional-scale ozone anomalies during the COVID-19 economic downturn. By incorporating extensive commercial aircraft data and frequently sampled ozonesonde profiles above Europe, we show that the complex interannual variability of ozone can be adequately captured by our modeling approach. The results show that free tropospheric ozone negative anomalies in 2020 are the most profound since the benchmark year of 1994 for both Europe and western North America, and positive trends over 1994–2019 are diminished in both regions by the 2020 anomalies.
Published: 2022
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28. Attribution of typhoon-induced torrential precipitation in Central Vietnam, October 2020

Author: Linh N. Luu, Paolo Scussolini, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Robert Vautard, Khiem Van Mai, Thang Van Vu, Kien Ba Truong, Friederike Otto, Gerard van der Schrier, Maarten K. van Aalst, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Department of Applied Earth Sciences, UT-I-ITC-4DEarth, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, Water and Climate Risk, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, University of Twente, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Earth Institute at Columbia University, and Columbia University [New York]-Columbia University [New York]
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, UT-Hybrid-D, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, ITC-HYBRID, Attribution, INTERANNUAL VARIATION, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate change, Typhoon, Global and Planetary Change, Science & Technology, CHI MINH CITY, HEAVY RAINFALL, FALL RAINFALL, Extreme events, CLIMATE, MODEL, PROBABILITY, EVENT, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Physical Sciences, PATTERNS, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, RAPID ATTRIBUTION, Environmental Sciences, Heavy rainfall
Abstract: In October 2020, Central Vietnam was struck by heavy rain resulting from a sequence of 5 tropical depressions and typhoons. The immense amount of water led to extensive flooding and landslides that killed more than 200 people, injured more than 500 people, and caused direct damages valued at approximately 1.2 billion USD. Here, we quantify how the intensity of the precipitation leading to such exceptional impacts is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. First, we define the event as the regional maximum of annual maximum 15-day average rainfall (Rx15day). We then analyse the trend in Rx15day over Central Vietnam from the observations and simulations in the PRIMAVERA and CORDEX-CORE ensembles, which pass our evaluation tests, by applying the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in which location and scale parameters exponentially covary with increasing global temperatures. Combining these observations and model results, we find that the 2020 event, occurring about once every 80 years (at least 17 years), has not changed in either probability of occurrence (a factor 1.0, ranging from 0.4 to 2.4) or intensity (0%, ranging from −8 to +8%) in the present climate in comparison with early-industrial climate. This implies that the effect of human-induced climate change contributing to this persistent extreme rainfall event is small compared to natural variability. However, given the scale of damage of this hazard, our results underline that more investment in disaster risk reduction for this type of rainfall-induced flood hazard is of importance, even independent of the effect of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as both observations and model simulations will be extended with the passage of time, we encourage more climate change impact investigations on the extreme in the future that help adaptation and mitigation plans and raise awareness in the country.
Published: 2021
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29. Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe

Author: Ségolène Berthou, Malcolm J Roberts, Benoît Vannière, Nikolina Ban, Danijel Belušić, Cécile Caillaud, Thomas Crocker, Hylke de Vries, Andreas Dobler, Dan Harris, Elizabeth J Kendon, Oskar Landgren, Colin Manning, Met Office Climate Research Division, United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck [Innsbruck], Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), University of Zagreb, Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), University of Bristol [Bristol], School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences [Newcastle], Newcastle University [Newcastle], and European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017)
Subjects: climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, convection-permitting models, precipitation, winter storms, extratropical cyclones, convection, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Precipitation within extratropical cyclones is very likely to increase towards the end of the century in a business-as-usual scenario. We investigate hourly precipitation changes in end-of-century winter storms with the first km-scale model ensemble covering northwest Europe and the Baltic region. This is an ensemble that explicitly represents convection (convection permitting models (CPMs)). Models agree that future winter storms will bring 10%-50% more precipitation, with the same level of light precipitation but more moderate and heavy precipitation, together with less frequent frozen precipitation. The warm sector precipitation rates will get closer (up to similar) to those in present-day autumn storms, along with higher convective available potential energy and convective inhibition, suggesting more convection embedded in storms. To the first order, mean hourly precipitation changes in winter storms are driven by temperature increase (with little relative humidity changes) and storm dynamical intensity (more uncertain), both captured by regional climate models (RCMs). The CPMs agree with this, and in addition, most CPMs show more increase in intense precipitation in the warm sector of storms compared to their parent RCM., Environmental Research Letters, 17 (11), ISSN:1748-9326, ISSN:1748-9318
Published: 2022
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30. DEMONSTRATED AEOLUS BENEFITS IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Author: Tim Banyard, Scott Osprey, Denny Wernham, Isabell Krisch, Oliver Reitebuch, Tommaso Parrinello, Jonas von Bismarck, Ad Stoffelen, Sergey Khaykin, Michael Rennie, Anne Grete Straume, Corwin J. Wright, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), University of Oxford [Oxford], Centre for Space, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [Bath] (CSAOS), University of Bath [Bath], European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), European Space Agency (ESA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), and ESA Centre for Earth Observation (ESRIN)
Subjects: optical properties, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, 0211 other engineering and technologies, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Aeolus, Data assimilation, DWL, NWP, Water cycle, 021101 geological & geomatics engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Atmospheric wave, Numerical weather prediction, winds, Computer Science Applications, Lidar, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Satellite, Atmospheric dynamics, Atmospheric electricity, atmospheric dynamics
Abstract: International audience; We highlight some of the scientific benefits of the Aeolus Doppler Wind Lidar mission since its launch in August 2018. Its scientific objectives are to improve weather forecasts and to advance the understanding of atmospheric dynamics and its interaction with the atmospheric energy and water cycle. A number of meteorological and science institutes across the world are starting to demonstrate that the Aeolus mission objectives are being met. Its wind product is being operationally assimilated by four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centres, thanks to demonstrated useful positive impact on NWP analyses and forecasts. Applications of its atmospheric optical properties product have been found, e.g., in the detection and tracking of smoke from the extreme Australian wildfires of 2020 and in atmospheric composition data assimilation. The winds are finding novel applications in atmospheric dynamics research, such as tropical phenomena (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation disruption events), detection of atmospheric gravity waves, and in the smoke generated vortex associated with the Australian wildfires. It has been applied in the assessment of other types of satellite derived wind information such as atmospheric motions vectors. Aeolus is already successful with hopefully more to come.
Published: 2021
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31. Impact of the COVID-19 lockdown policies on reducing air pollution levels and related deaths in Europe

Author: Augustin Colette, Jerome Barre, Blandine Raux, Marc Guevara, Florian Couvidat, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Marta Blangiardo, Antonio Gasparrini, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Mario Adani, Oriol Jorba, Rochelle Schneider, Francesco Sera, Joaquim Arteta, John Douros, Pierre Masselot, Ana Maria Vicedo Cabrera, Chiara Forlani, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), University of Bern, Imperial College London, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and International Society for Environmental Epidemiology
Subjects: Bayesian mixed effect model, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Air pollution, air pollution decline, medicine.disease_cause, Covid-19 Government Response, mortality, 13. Climate action, Environmental health, 11. Sustainability, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, medicine, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, chemical transport model, General Environmental Science
Abstract: International audience; BACKGROUND AND AIM: Previous studies have reported a decrease in air pollution following the enforcement of lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these investigations were mostly based on simple pre-post comparisons using past years as a reference, and did not assess the role of different policy interventions. In this contribution, we quantitatively evaluated the association between various lockdown measures and the decrease in NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 levels across 47 European cities and the associated short-term mortality in the period of February-July 2020. METHODS: We used data from several chemical transport models developed by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to define trends in air pollution under business-as-usual and lockdown scenarios, thus removing differences due to weather conditions and other differences affecting pre-post comparisons. We then applied an advanced spatio-temporal Bayesian non-linear mixed effect model to determine the association with stringency indices of individual policy measures, allowing non-linear relationships and geographical correlations. RESULTS: The findings indicate evidence of non-linear relationships, with a stronger decrease in NO2 and to a lesser extent PMs under very strict lockdown regimes. The effects of lockdown measures vary geographically, with a stronger decline in pollution in Southern and Central Europe. The comparative analysis of separate lockdown policies suggests important differences across interventions. Specifically, actions linked to school/workplace closure, limitations on gatherings, and stay-at-home requirements had strong effects, while restrictions on internal movement and international travels showed little impact. The observed decrease in pollution potentially resulted in hundreds of avoided deaths across the European cities. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides important evidence on the differential impacts of various policies implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in decreasing the level of pollutants in urban areas across Europe.
Published: 2021

32. ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation

Author: C. Heinze, V. Eyring, P. Friedlingstein, C. Jones, Y. Balkanski, W. Collins, T. Fichefet, S. Gao, A. Hall, D. Ivanova, W. Knorr, R. Knutti, A. Löw, M. Ponater, M. G. Schultz, M. Schulz, P. Siebesma, J. Teixeira, G. Tselioudis, M. Vancoppenolle, Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Institute of Environmental Physics [Bremen] (IUP), University of Bremen, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Meteorology [Monterey], Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] (AOS), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California-University of California, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] (NERSC), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Geography [München], Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
Subjects: Climate modelling, lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, Climate change, Cloud computing, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:QE500-639.5, Temporal heterogeneity, Erdsystem-Modellierung, ddc:550, Ecosystem, Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse, lcsh:Science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, climate feedbacks, business.industry, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Environmental resource management, climate model evaluation, lcsh:Geology, Interdependence, Earth system science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Climate model, business
Abstract: Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently included in state-of-the-art ESMs and discuss the challenges to evaluate and quantify them. Uncertainties in feedback quantification arise from the interdependencies of biogeochemical matter fluxes and physical properties, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of processes, and the lack of long-term continuous observational data to constrain them. We present an outlook for promising approaches that can help to quantify and to constrain the large number of feedbacks in ESMs in the future. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research (researchers, lecturers, and students). This study updates and significantly expands upon the last comprehensive overview of climate feedbacks in ESMs, which was produced 15 years ago (NRC, 2003).
Published: 2019
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33. Quantifying uncertainties due to chemistry modelling – evaluation of tropospheric composition simulations in the CAMS model (cycle 43R1)

Author: Yves Christophe, Guy Brasseur, Jonathan Guth, Virginie Marécal, Johannes Flemming, Idir Bouarar, Thierno Doumbia, Joaquim Arteta, Vincent Huijnen, Béatrice Josse, Vlassis A. Karydis, Sophie Pelletier, Simon Chabrillat, Andrea Pozzer, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie (MPIC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique (LaMP), Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique (BIRA-IASB), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Ozone, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, lcsh:QE1-996.5, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Trace gas, lcsh:Geology, Troposphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, Data assimilation, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Atmospheric chemistry, ddc:550, Satellite, Tropospheric ozone, Deposition (chemistry), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: We report on an evaluation of tropospheric ozone and its precursor gases in three atmospheric chemistry versions as implemented in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), referred to as IFS(CB05BASCOE), IFS(MOZART) and IFS(MOCAGE). While the model versions were forced with the same overall meteorology, emissions, transport and deposition schemes, they vary largely in their parameterisations describing atmospheric chemistry, including the organics degradation, heterogeneous chemistry and photolysis, as well as chemical solver. The model results from the three chemistry versions are compared against a range of aircraft field campaigns, surface observations, ozone-sondes and satellite observations, which provides quantification of the overall model uncertainty driven by the chemistry parameterisations. We find that they produce similar patterns and magnitudes for carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), as well as a range of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), with averaged differences for O3 (CO) within 10 % (20 %) throughout the troposphere. Most of the divergence in the magnitude of CO and NMHCs can be explained by differences in OH concentrations, which can reach up to 50 %, particularly at high latitudes. There are also comparatively large discrepancies between model versions for NO2, SO2 and HNO3, which are strongly influenced by secondary chemical production and loss. Other common biases in CO and NMHCs are mainly attributed to uncertainties in their emissions. This configuration of having various chemistry versions within IFS provides a quantification of uncertainties induced by chemistry modelling in the main CAMS global trace gas products beyond those that are constrained by data assimilation.
Published: 2019
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34. The CAMS reanalysis of atmospheric composition

Author: Sebastien Massart, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Samuel Remy, Richard Engelen, Henk Eskes, Michael Schulz, Anne-Marlene Blechschmidt, Anna Agusti-Panareda, Zak Kipling, Juan Jose Dominguez, Jerome Barre, Antje Inness, Johannes Flemming, Martin Suttie, Vincent Huijnen, M. Razinger, Anna Benedictow, Melanie Ades, L. Jones, Mark Parrington, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory (ACOML), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Universität Bremen, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), CERFACS, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)
Subjects: Horizontal resolution, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], 0303 health sciences, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:QC1-999, Atmospheric composition, Troposphere, Atmosphere, lcsh:Chemistry, 03 medical and health sciences, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Climatology, Temporal resolution, Satellite, Optical depth, lcsh:Physics, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis is the latest global reanalysis dataset of atmospheric composition produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), consisting of three-dimensional time-consistent atmospheric composition fields, including aerosols and chemical species. The dataset currently covers the period 2003–2016 and will be extended in the future by adding 1 year each year. A reanalysis for greenhouse gases is being produced separately. The CAMS reanalysis builds on the experience gained during the production of the earlier Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis and CAMS interim reanalysis. Satellite retrievals of total column CO; tropospheric column NO2; aerosol optical depth (AOD); and total column, partial column and profile ozone retrievals were assimilated for the CAMS reanalysis with ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. The new reanalysis has an increased horizontal resolution of about 80 km and provides more chemical species at a better temporal resolution (3-hourly analysis fields, 3-hourly forecast fields and hourly surface forecast fields) than the previously produced CAMS interim reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis has smaller biases compared with most of the independent ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and aerosol optical depth observations used for validation in this paper than the previous two reanalyses and is much improved and more consistent in time, especially compared to the MACC reanalysis. The CAMS reanalysis is a dataset that can be used to compute climatologies, study trends, evaluate models, benchmark other reanalyses or serve as boundary conditions for regional models for past periods.
Published: 2019
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35. Sun-induced fluorescence and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation track the seasonal dynamics of gross primary production over Africa

Author: A. G. Mengistu, G. Mengistu Tsidu, G. Koren, M. L. Kooreman, K. F. Boersma, T. Tagesson, J. Ardö, Y. Nouvellon, W. Peters, Addis Ababa University (AAU), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Botswana International University of Science & Technology (BIUST), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Lund University [Lund], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Ecologie fonctionnelle et biogéochimie des sols et des agro-écosystèmes (UMR Eco&Sols), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), University of Groningen [Groningen], Swedish National Space Board (SNSB) grant no. 95/15, European Research Council (ERC) under grant no. 649087 (ASICA), by H2020 grant no. CASSECS, European Project: 649087,H2020,ERC-2014-CoG,ASICA(2015), University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and Isotope Research
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Biome, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Life, QH501-531, Dry season, Production primaire, QH540-549.5, QE1-996.5, 0303 health sciences, Ecology, Geology, Vegetation, Variation saisonnière, P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, Wet season, Meteorology and Air Quality, Evolution, Télédétection, Luchtkwaliteit, Fluorescence, Air Quality, Carbon cycle, 03 medical and health sciences, Behavior and Systematics, Réflectance, Life Science, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, [SDV.BBM]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biochemistry, Molecular Biology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, WIMEK, Primary production, Enhanced vegetation index, 15. Life on land, Evergreen, Végétation, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, U30 - Méthodes de recherche, Cycle du carbone, Index de végétation
Abstract: The carbon cycle of tropical terrestrial vegetation plays a vital role in the storage and exchange of atmospheric CO2. But large uncertainties surround the impacts of land-use change emissions, climate warming, the frequency of droughts, and CO2 fertilization. This culminates in poorly quantified carbon stocks and carbon fluxes even for the major ecosystems of Africa (savannas and tropical evergreen forests). Contributors to this uncertainty are the sparsity of (micro-)meteorological observations across Africa's vast land area, a lack of sufficient ground-based observation networks and validation data for CO2, and incomplete representation of important processes in numerical models. In this study, we therefore turn to two remotely sensed vegetation products that have been shown to correlate highly with gross primary production (GPP): sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIRv). The former is available from an updated product that we recently published (Sun-Induced Fluorescence of Terrestrial Ecosystems Retrieval-SIFTER v2), which specifically improves retrievals in tropical environments. A comparison against flux tower observations of daytime-partitioned net ecosystem exchange from six major biomes in Africa shows that SIF and NIRv reproduce the seasonal patterns of GPP well, resulting in correlation coefficients of (NCombining double low line12 months, four sites) over savannas in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. These coefficients are slightly higher than for the widely used Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC) GPP products and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Similarly to SIF signals in the neighboring Amazon, peak productivity occurs in the wet season coinciding with peak soil moisture and is followed by an initial decline during the early dry season, which reverses when light availability peaks. This suggests similar leaf dynamics are at play. Spatially, SIF and NIRv show a strong linear relation (R; N≥250 pixels) with multi-year MPI-BGC GPP even within single biomes. Both MPI-BGC GPP and the EVI show saturation relative to peak NIRv and SIF signals during high-productivity months, which suggests that GPP in the most productive regions of Africa might be larger than suggested.
Published: 2021
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36. Data quality of Aeolus wind measurements

Author: Krisch, Isabell, Reitebuch, Oliver, von Bismarck, Jonas, Dabas, Alain, Fischer, Peggy, Huber, Dorit, de Kloe, Jos, Rennie, Michael, Lemmerz, Christian, Lux, Oliver, Marksteiner, Uwe, Masoumzadeh, Nafiseh, Weiler, Fabian, Witschas, Benjamin, Bracci, Fabio, Meringer, Markus, Schmidt, Karsten, Geiss, Alexander, Nikolaus, Ines, Vaughan, Michael, Fabre, Frederic, Flament, Thomas, Trapon, Dimitri, Lacour, Adrien, Abdalla, Saleh, Isaksen, Lars, Donovan, Dave, Marseille, Gert-Jan, Stoffelen, Ad, Zandelhoff, Gerd-Jan, Wang, Ping, Perron, Gaetan, Jupin-Ganglois, Sebastian, Veneziani, Marcella, Pijnacker-Hordijk, Bas, Bucci, Simone, Gostinicchi, Giacomo, Kanitz, Thomas, Straume, Anne-Grete, Ehlers, Frithjof, Wernham, Denny, Bley, Sebastian, Aprile, Stefano, De Laurentis, Marta, Parinello, Tommaso, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Agence Spatiale Européenne (ESA), European Space Agency (ESA), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and ESA/AEOLUS
Subjects: Earth Explorer mission, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Doppler wind lidar, 13. Climate action, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, sattelite, wind, 7. Clean energy, Aeolus, lidar
Abstract: The European Space Agency (ESA)’s Earth Explorer Aeolus was launched in August 2018 carrying the world’s first spaceborne wind lidar, the Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN). ALADIN uses a high spectral resolution Doppler wind lidar operating at 355nm to determine profiles of line-of-sight wind components in near-real-time (NRT). ALADIN samples the atmosphere from 30km altitude down to the Earth’s surface or to the level where the lidar signal is attenuated by optically thick clouds.The global wind profiles provided by ALADIN help to improve weather forecasting and the understanding of atmospheric dynamics as they fill observational gaps in vertically resolved wind profiles mainly in the tropics, southern hemisphere, and over the northern hemisphere oceans. Since 2020, multiple national and international weather centres (e.g. ECMWF, DWD, Météo France, MetOffice) assimilate Aeolus observations in their operational forecasting. Additionally, the scientific exploitation of the Aeolus dataset has started.A main prerequisite for beneficial impact and scientific exploitation is data of sufficient quality. Such high data quality has been achieved through close collaboration of all involved parties within the Aeolus Data Innovation and Science Cluster (DISC), which was established after launch to study and improve the data quality of Aeolus products. The tasks of the Aeolus DISC include the instrument and platform monitoring, calibration, characterization, retrieval algorithm refinement, processor evolution, quality monitoring, product validation, and impact assessment for NWP.The achievements of the Aeolus DISC for the NRT data quality and the one currently available reprocessed dataset will be presented. The data quality of the Aeolus wind measurements will be described and an outlook on planned improvements of the dataset and processors will be provided.
Published: 2021
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37. Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model

Author: Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, Bert van Ulft, Renaud Barbero, Erik van Meijgaard, Hayley J. Fowler, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing [Delft], Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), School of Engineering [Newcastle], Newcastle University [Newcastle], Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), and Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, General Mathematics, 0207 environmental engineering, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Context (language use), 02 engineering and technology, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Degree (temperature), Atmosphere, Flash flood, Precipitation, 020701 environmental engineering, Scaling, Research Articles, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Engineering, Articles, Dew point, climate change, hourly precipitation extremes, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, precipitation scaling
Abstract: It is widely recognized that future rainfall extremes will intensify. This expectation is tied to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation, stating that the maximum water vapour content in the atmosphere increases by 6–7% per degree warming. Scaling rates for the dependency of hourly precipitation extremes on near-surface (dew point) temperature derived from day-to-day variability have been found to exceed this relation (super-CC). However, both the applicability of this approach in a long-term climate change context, and the physical realism of super-CC rates have been questioned. Here, we analyse three different climate change experiments with a convection-permitting model over Western Europe: simple uniform-warming, 11-year pseudo-global warming and 11-year global climate model driven. The uniform-warming experiment results in consistent increases to the intensity of hourly rainfall extremes of approximately 11% per degree for moderate to high extremes. The other two, more realistic, experiments show smaller increases—usually at or below the CC rate—for moderate extremes, mostly resulting from significant decreases to rainfall occurrence. However, changes to the most extreme events are broadly consistent with 1.5–2 times the CC rate (10–14% per degree), as predicted from the present-day scaling rate for the highest percentiles. This result has important implications for climate adaptation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.
Published: 2021
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38. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes

Author: Elizabeth Lewis, Abdullah Kahraman, Christoph Schär, Conrad Wasko, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Roberto Villalobos-Herrera, Jason P. Evans, Katy L. Peat, Hayley J. Fowler, Paul A. O'Gorman, Selma B. Guerreiro, Harriet G. Orr, David Pritchard, Gabriele Villarini, Steven Chan, Nalan Senol Cabi, Nikolina Ban, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Andreas F. Prein, Seth Westra, Marie Ekström, Richard P. Allan, Haider Ali, Ashish Sharma, Stephen Blenkinsop, Peter A. Stott, Renaud Barbero, Xiaofeng Li, Giorgia Fosser, Murray Dale, Michael Wehner, Brian Golding, Anna Whitford, Geert Lenderink, Robert Dunn, Peter Berg, School of Engineering [Newcastle], Newcastle University [Newcastle], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), Department of Atmospheric and Cryosphere Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Leopold Franzens Universität Innsbruck - University of Innsbruck, Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Willis Research Network London, JBA Consulting, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], School of Earth and Ocean Sciences [Cardiff], Cardiff University, Climate Change Research Centre [Sydney] (CCRC), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Istituto Universitario di Studi Superiori (IUSS), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), School of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Sydney], Department of Infrastructure Engineering [Melbourne], Melbourne School of Engineering [Melbourne], University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne, Computational Research Division [LBNL Berkeley] (CRD), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), University of Adelaide, NERC-funded FUTURE-STORMS (NE/R01079X/1)FUTURE-DRAINAGE (NE/S017348/1)Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society asa Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (WM140025) holderMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101)NSF AGS-1552195 the MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative, European Project: 617329,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-CoG,INTENSE(2014), European Project: 690462,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA4CS(2016), SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE NORRKÖPING SWE, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), JBAConsulting, and South Barn
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, General Mathematics, rainfall, 0207 environmental engineering, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Flash flood, Precipitation, 020701 environmental engineering, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global warming, Flooding (psychology), General Engineering, Landslide, climate change, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Scale (social sciences), Convective storm detection, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, ZABR, flash flood
Abstract: A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.
Published: 2021
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39. Quality assessment of three years of Sentinel-5p TROPOMI NO2 data

Author: VERHOELST, Tijl, COMPERNOLLE, Steven, PINARDI, Gaia, GRANVILLE, José, LAMBERT, Jean-Christopher, EICHMANN, Kai-Uwe, ESKES, Henk, NIEMEIJER, Sander, FJÆRAA, Ann Mari, PAZMINO, Andrea, BAZUREAU, Ariane, GOUTAIL, Florence, POMMEREAU, Jean-Pierre, CEDE, Alexander, TIEFENGRABER, Martin, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique (BIRA-IASB), Institut für Umweltphysik [Bremen] (IUP), Universität Bremen, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics [Innsbruck], and University of Innsbruck
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]
Abstract: International audience; For more than three years now, the first atmospheric satellite of the Copernicus EO programme, Sentinel-5p (S5P) TROPOMI, has acquired spectral measurements of the Earth radiance in the visible range, from which near-real-time (NRTI) and offline (OFFL) processors retrieve the total, tropospheric and stratospheric column abundance of NO2. The S5P Mission Performance Centre performs continuous QA/QC of these data products enabling users to verify the fitness-for- purpose of the S5P data. Quality Indicators are derived from comparisons to ground-based reference data, both station-by-station in the S5P Automated Validation Server (AVS), and globally in more in-depth analyses. Complementary quality information is obtained from product intercomparisons (NRTI vs. OFFL) and from satellite-to-satellite comparisons. After three years of successful operation we present here a consolidated overview of the quality of the S5P TROPOMI NO2 data products, with particular attention paid to the impact of the various processor improvements, especially in the latest version (v1.4), activated on 2 December 2020, which introduces an updated cloud retrieval resulting in higher NO2 columns in polluted regions. Also the upcoming v2, due in April 2021 but already used to produce a Diagnostic Data Set, is discussed.S5P NO2 data are compared to ground-based measurements collected through either the ESA Validation Data Centre (EVDC) or network data archives (NDACC, PGN). Measurements from the Pandonia Global Network (PGN) serve as a reference for total NO2 validation, Multi-Axis DOAS data for tropospheric NO2 validation, and NDACC zenith-scattered-light DOAS data for stratospheric NO2 validation. Comparison methods are optimized to limit spatial and temporal mismatch errors (co-location strategy, photochemical adjustment to account for local time difference). Comparison results are analyzed to derive Quality Indicators and to conclude on the compliance w.r.t. the Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)mission requirements. This include estimates of: (1) the bias, as proxy for systematic errors, (2) the dispersion of the differences, which combines random errors with seasonal and mismatch errors, and (3) the dependence of these on key influence quantities (surface albedo, cloud cover...)Overall, the MPC quality assessment of S5P NO2 data concludes to an excellent performance for the stratospheric data (bias
Published: 2021
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40. COVID‐19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone Across the Northern Hemisphere

Author: Marc Allaart, Susan E. Strahan, Ryan M. Stauffer, Richard Querel, Anne M. Thompson, Nicholas B. Jones, Clare Paton-Walsh, Patrick Cullis, Tatsumi Nakano, Bryan J. Johnson, Gérard Ancellet, Thomas Blumenstock, Ankie Piters, Holger Deckelmann, Omaira García, Matthias Palm, Roeland Van Malderen, Kai-Lan Chang, Nis Jepsen, Antje Inness, M.B. Tully, Ralf Sussmann, Amelie N. Röhling, Gonzague Romanens, Dagmar Kubistin, Ana Diaz Rodriguez, Fernando Chouza, René Stübi, Owen R. Cooper, Emmanuel Mahieu, Kimberly Strong, Christian Plass-Dülmer, Jonathan Davies, Richard Engelen, Peter Oelsner, David W. Tarasick, Peter von der Gathen, Jose-Luis Hernandez, Michael Gill, Justus Notholt, Thierry Leblanc, Christian Servais, Irina Petropavlovskikh, Matthias Schneider, Norrie Lyall, Rigel Kivi, Carlos Torres, Shoma Yamanouchi, Sophie Godin-Beekmann, Bogumil Kois, James W. Hannigan, Wolfgang Steinbrecht, Andy Delcloo, Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Met Office Lerwick, Universität Bremen, Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW - PIB), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Irish Meteorological Service (MET ÉIREANN), Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique [Bruxelles] (IRM), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège], Université de Liège, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), STRATO - LATMOS, University of Toronto, ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory [Boulder] (GML), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMet), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Spurengase und Fernerkundung (IMK-ASF), Australian Bureau of Meteorology [Melbourne] (BoM), Australian Government, University of Wollongong [Australia], National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] (NIWA), GSFC Earth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Earth Science System Interdisciplinary Center [College Park] (ESSIC), College of Computer, Mathematical, and Natural Sciences [College Park], University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System-University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University of Wollongong, GFSC Earth Sciences Division, Kubistin, Dagmar, 1 Deutscher Wetterdienst Hohenpeißenberg Germany, Plass‐Dülmer, Christian, Davies, Jonathan, 2 Environment and Climate Change Canada Toronto ONT Canada, Tarasick, David W., Gathen, Peter von der, 3 Alfred Wegener Institut Helmholtz‐Zentrum für Polar‐ und Meeresforschung Potsdam Germany, Deckelmann, Holger, Jepsen, Nis, 4 Danish Meteorological Institute Copenhagen Denmark, Kivi, Rigel, 5 Finnish Meteorological Institute Sodankylä Finland, Lyall, Norrie, 6 British Meteorological Service Lerwick UK, Palm, Matthias, 7 University of Bremen Bremen Germany, Notholt, Justus, Kois, Bogumil, 8 Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Legionowo Poland, Oelsner, Peter, 9 Deutscher Wetterdienst Lindenberg Germany, Allaart, Marc, 10 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute DeBilt The Netherlands, Piters, Ankie, Gill, Michael, 11 Met Éireann (Irish Met. Service) Valentia Ireland, Van Malderen, Roeland, 12 Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium Uccle Belgium, Delcloo, Andy W., Sussmann, Ralf, 13 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology IMK‐IFU Garmisch‐Partenkirchen Germany, Mahieu, Emmanuel, 14 Institute of Astrophysics and Geophysics University of Liège Liège Belgium, Servais, Christian, Romanens, Gonzague, 15 Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss Payerne Switzerland, Stübi, Rene, Ancellet, Gerard, 16 LATMOS Sorbonne Université‐UVSQ‐CNRS/INSU Paris France, Godin‐Beekmann, Sophie, Yamanouchi, Shoma, 17 University of Toronto Toronto ONT Canada, Strong, Kimberly, Johnson, Bryan, 18 NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory Boulder CO USA, Cullis, Patrick, Petropavlovskikh, Irina, Hannigan, James W., 20 National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA, Hernandez, Jose‐Luis, 21 State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) Madrid Spain, Diaz Rodriguez, Ana, Nakano, Tatsumi, 22 Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba Japan, Chouza, Fernando, 23 Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Table Mountain Facility Wrightwood CA USA, Leblanc, Thierry, Torres, Carlos, 24 Izaña Atmospheric Research Center AEMET Tenerife Spain, Garcia, Omaira, Röhling, Amelie N., 25 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology IMK‐ASF Karlsruhe Germany, Schneider, Matthias, Blumenstock, Thomas, Tully, Matt, 26 Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne Australia, Paton‐Walsh, Clare, 27 Centre for Atmospheric Chemistry University of Wollongong Wollongong Australia, Jones, Nicholas, Querel, Richard, 28 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder New Zealand, Strahan, Susan, 29 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Division Greenbelt MD USA, Stauffer, Ryan M., Thompson, Anne M., Inness, Antje, 32 European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reading UK, Engelen, Richard, Chang, Kai‐Lan, 19 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) University of Colorado Boulder CO USA, and Cooper, Owen R.
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Pollution: Urban, Regional and Global, Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Biogeosciences, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, [SDV.MHEP.PSR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Pulmonology and respiratory tract, 01 natural sciences, Biogeochemical Kinetics and Reaction Modeling, LIDAR, Troposphere, Oceanography: Biological and Chemical, chemistry.chemical_compound, [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, Emission reductions, ddc:550, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, VERTICAL-DISTRIBUTION, Marine Pollution, RECORD, NOX, 551.51, Biogeochemistry, Ozone depletion, Oceanography: General, Pollution: Urban and Regional, Geophysics, Free troposphere, Emissions, Troposphere: Composition and Chemistry, The COVID‐19 pandemic: linking health, society and environment, Cryosphere, Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, and Modeling, Ozone, Megacities and Urban Environment, URBAN, Atmosphere, Paleoceanography, Altitude, COVID‐19, Research Letter, Global Change, Tropospheric ozone, Stratosphere, Urban Systems, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Aerosols, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], emissions, Northern Hemisphere, COVID-19, PROFILES, Aerosols and Particles, TRENDS, Earth sciences, ozone, Physics and Astronomy, troposphere, chemistry, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Natural Hazards
Abstract: Throughout spring and summer 2020, ozone stations in the northern extratropics recorded unusually low ozone in the free troposphere. From April to August, and from 1 to 8 kilometers altitude, ozone was on average 7% (≈4 nmol/mol) below the 2000–2020 climatological mean. Such low ozone, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000. Atmospheric composition analyses from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and simulations from the NASA GMI model indicate that the large 2020 springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere contributed less than one‐quarter of the observed tropospheric anomaly. The observed anomaly is consistent with recent chemistry‐climate model simulations, which assume emissions reductions similar to those caused by the COVID‐19 crisis. COVID‐19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020., Plain Language Summary: Worldwide actions to contain the COVID‐19 virus have closed factories, grounded airplanes, and have generally reduced travel and transportation. Less fuel was burnt, and less exhaust was emitted into the atmosphere. Due to these measures, the concentration of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) decreased in the atmosphere. These substances are important for photochemical production and destruction of ozone in the atmosphere. In clean or mildly polluted air, reducing nitrogen oxides and/or VOCs will reduce the photochemical production of ozone and result in less ozone. In heavily polluted air, in contrast, reducing nitrogen oxides can increase ozone concentrations, because less nitrogen oxide is available to destroy ozone. In this study, we use data from three types of ozone instruments, but mostly from ozonesondes on weather balloons. The sondes fly from the ground up to 30 kilometers altitude. In the first 8 km, we find significantly reduced ozone concentrations in the northern extratropics during spring and summer of 2020, less than in any other year since at least 2000. We suggest that reduced emissions due to the COVID‐19 crisis have lowered photochemical ozone production and have caused the observed ozone reductions in the troposphere., Key Points: In spring and summer 2020, stations in the northern extratropics report on average 7% (4 nmol/mol) less tropospheric ozone than normal Such low tropospheric ozone, over several months, and at so many sites, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000 Most of the reduction in tropospheric ozone in 2020 is likely due to emissions reductions related to the COVID‐19 pandemic, NASA | Earth Sciences Division (NASA Earth Science Division) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014573, Gouvernement du Canada | Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000038, Australian Research Council, Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique ‐ FNRS (FNRS) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002661, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006360
Published: 2021
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41. The EC-Earth3 Earth System Model for the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 6

Author: Raffaele Bernardello, Pablo Ortega, Pirkka Ollinaho, M. Pasha Karami, Federico Serva, Declan O'Donnell, David Wårlind, Matthias Gröger, Torben Koenigk, Paul A. Miller, Franco Catalano, Arthur Ramos, Klaus Wyser, Glenn Carver, Ivana Cvijanovic, Evelien Dekker, Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Xavier Yepes-Arbós, Martin Ménégoz, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Roland Schrödner, Mario Acosta, Shiyu Wang, Louis-Philippe Caron, Qiong Zhang, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Ulrika Willén, Torben Schmith, Philippe Le Sager, Paul Nolan, Lars Nieradzik, Tommi Bergman, Shuting Yang, Jukka-Pekka Keskinen, Andrea Alessandri, Peter Anthoni, Twan van Noije, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Oriol Tintó Prims, François Massonnet, Clement Rousset, Miguel Castrillo, Souhail Bousetta, Petteri Uotila, David Docquier, Jost von Hardenberg, Risto Makkonen, Valentina Sicardi, Gijs van den Oord, Uwe Fladrich, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Thomas Reerink, Paolo Davini, Martin Vancoppenolle, Jenny Hieronymus, Benjamin Smith, Etienne Tourigny, Almut Arneth, Thomas Arsouze, Ralf Doescher, Tian Tian, Pablo Echevarria, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), CNR Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin (Polito), University of Helsinki, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Lund University [Lund], Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), National Research Council of Italy | Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), Helsingin yliopisto = Helsingfors universitet = University of Helsinki, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, European community, Computer science, 010604 marine biology & hydrobiology, Frame (networking), 01 natural sciences, Variety (cybernetics), Coupling (computer programming), [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Systems engineering, Range (statistics), Key (cryptography), Climate model, Earth system model, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The Earth System Model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different HPC systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behaviour and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new ESM components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
Published: 2021
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42. Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Author: Elizabeth J. Kendon, Xuebin Zhang, Andreas F. Prein, Stephen Blenkinsop, Conrad Wasko, Richard P. Allan, Ashish Sharma, Nikolina Ban, Selma B. Guerreiro, Gabriele Villarini, Christoph Schaer, Hong Xuan Do, Geert Lenderink, Seth Westra, Jan O. Haerter, Elizabeth Lewis, Peter Berg, Hayley J. Fowler, Renaud Barbero, Newcastle University [Newcastle], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of Adelaide, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences [Innsbruck] (ACINN), Universität Innsbruck [Innsbruck], Risques, Ecosystèmes, Vulnérabilité, Environnement, Résilience (RECOVER), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Nong Lam University [Hô-Chi-Minh] (NLU), Niels Bohr Institute [Copenhagen] (NBI), Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), Jacobs University [Bremen], Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Departement Erdwissenschaften [ETH Zürich] (D-ERDW), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Hydroscience and Engineering [Iowa City] (IIHR), University of Iowa [Iowa City], University of Melbourne, Environment and Climate Change Canada, UK Natural Environment Research Council (FUTURE-STORMS, NE/R01079X/1)Wolfson Foundation and the Royal Society through a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (grant no. WM140025)Wolfson FoundationRoyal Society through a Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award WM140025the US National Science Foundationthe Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by the UK Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy and the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (grant no. GA01101)Villum Foundation (grant no. 13168)Novo Nordisk Foundation Interdisciplinary Synergy Program (grant no. NNF19OC0057374)the US Army Corps of Engineers' Institute for Water Resources (IWR), European Project: 617329,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-CoG,INTENSE(2014), and European Project: 690462,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA4CS(2016)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Flood myth, Atmospheric moisture, Atmospheric circulation, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Flooding (psychology), 0207 environmental engineering, Storm, 02 engineering and technology, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, Pollution, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Flash flood, Environmental science, Temperature stratification, 020701 environmental engineering, Short duration, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Earth-Surface Processes
Abstract: Short-duration (1–3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth’s climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short-duration and long-duration (>1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K−1), while in some regions, increases in short-duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short-duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales, and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks. Short-duration rainfall extremes are determined by complex processes that are affected by the warming climate. This Review assesses the evidence for the intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes, the associated drivers and the implications for flood risks.
Published: 2021
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43. Analysis of the anthropogenic and biogenic NO x emissions over 2008‐2017: assessment of the trends in the 30 most populated urban areas in Europe

Author: Stijn N. C. Dellaert, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Isabelle Pison, Audrey Fortems-Cheiney, Folkert Boersma, Guillaume Siour, Marielle Saunois, Antoine Berchet, Grégoire Broquet, Gaëlle Dufour, Elise Potier, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-RAMCES (ICOS-RAMCES), Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), TNO Climate, Air and Sustainability [Utrecht], The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), European Project: 776810,H2020,H2020-SC5-2017-OneStageB,VERIFY(2018), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, WIMEK, Meteorology and Air Quality, Environmental protection, Environmental science, Life Science, Luchtkwaliteit, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, NOx, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Air Quality
Abstract: We use the OMI-QA4ECV-v1.1 NO2 tropospheric columns over the 10-yr 2008-2017 period to confront satellite-based trends in NO2 concentrations to those from the state-of-the-art regional chemistry-transport model CHIMERE and to evaluate the bottom-up anthropogenic and biogenic NOx emissions in Europe. A focus is made for the 30 most populated urban areas in Europe. Over urban areas in Western Europe, except for coastal cities, OMI confirm the drop in the simulated CHIMERE NO2 tropospheric columns based on the latest country emission official reporting. OMI does not show significant decreasing trends over Central and Eastern Europe urban areas. Increasing biogenic emissions helps reconciling CHIMERE and OMI trends over urban areas in Central Europe and over rural areas, confirming the importance of accounting for non-anthropogenic emissions to assess long-term trends. Over Eastern Europe, our results question emission reductions estimated for particular sectors and in particular the road transport, public power and industrial emissions.
Published: 2021
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44. Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution

Author: Roop Singh, Julie Arrighi, Karin van der Wiel, Andrew D. King, Sarah F. Kew, Robert Vautard, Fraser C. Lott, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sjoukje Philip, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Maarten van Aalst, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), University of Oxford, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), School of Earth Sciences [Melbourne], Faculty of Science [Melbourne], University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, University of Twente, Australian Research Council, ARC: DE180100638 European Commission, EC, This paper builds on results from the Copernicus COP 039 and C3S 62 contracts lead by KNMI, which focused on the development of a prototype for extreme events and attribution service within the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and funded by the European Union. The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre authors were partly supported by the Partners for Resilience program. AK was funded by the Australian Research Council (DE180100638)., University of Oxford [Oxford], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Twente [Netherlands], Department of Earth Systems Analysis, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, and UT-I-ITC-4DEarth
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Extreme weather, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, Vulnerability, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Extreme event attribution, 01 natural sciences, Hazard, Data science, Public interest, ITC-HYBRID, Detection and attribution, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Climate model, Attribution, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Event (probability theory)
Abstract: The last few years have seen an explosion of interest in extreme event attribution, the science of estimating the influence of human activities or other factors on the probability and other characteristics of an observed extreme weather or climate event. This is driven by public interest, but also has practical applications in decision-making after the event and for raising awareness of current and future climate change impacts. The World Weather Attribution (WWA) collaboration has over the last 5 years developed a methodology to answer these questions in a scientifically rigorous way in the immediate wake of the event when the information is most in demand. This methodology has been developed in the practice of investigating the role of climate change in two dozen extreme events world-wide. In this paper, we highlight the lessons learned through this experience. The methodology itself is documented in a more extensive companion paper. It covers all steps in the attribution process: the event choice and definition, collecting and assessing observations and estimating probability and trends from these, climate model evaluation, estimating modelled hazard trends and their significance, synthesis of the attribution of the hazard, assessment of trends in vulnerability and exposure, and communication. Here, we discuss how each of these steps entails choices that may affect the results, the common problems that can occur and how robust conclusions can (or cannot) be derived from the analysis. Some of these developments also apply to other attribution methodologies and indeed to other problems in climate science.
Published: 2021
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45. Guidelines for Studying Diverse Types of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Author: Joaquim G. Pinto, Karin van der Wiel, Jakob Zscheischler, Emanuele Bevacqua, Fabrizio Durante, Wenyan Wu, Elisa Ragno, Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Tianyi Zhang, Pauline Rivoire, Carlo De Michele, Suzana Blesic, Alexandre M. Ramos, Anaïs Couasnon, Kate Saunders, Edoardo Vignotto, Colin Manning, Ana Bastos, John K. Hillier, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Bevacqua, Emanuele, De Michele, Carlo, Manning, Colin, Couasnon, Anaã¯, Ribeiro, Andreia F. S., Ramos, Alexandre M., Vignotto, Edoardo, Bastos, Ana, Blesi('(c)), Suzana, Durante, Fabrizio, Hillier, John, Oliveira, S('(e))rgio C., Pinto, Joaquim G., Ragno, Elisa, Rivoire, Pauline, Saunders, Kate, Wiel, Karin, Wu, Wenyan, Zhang, Tianyi, Zscheischler, Jakob, Water and Climate Risk, Earth and Climate, Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa, 3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Politecnico di Milano Milano Italy, 4 School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne UK, Couasnon, Anaïs, 5 Institute for Environmental Studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands, 6 Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland, 7 Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL) Faculdade de Ciências Universidade de Lisboa Lisboa Portugal, 8 Research Center for Statistics University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland, 9 Department of Biogeochemical Integration Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena Germany, Blesić, Suzana, 10 University of Belgrade and Center for Participatory Science Institute for Medical Research Belgrade Serbia, 11 Department of Economic Sciences University of Salento Lecce Italy, 12 Geography Loughborough University Loughborough UK, Oliveira, Sérgio C., 13 Centre for Geographical Studies and Associated Laboratory TERRA Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning Universidade de Lisboa Lisboa Portugal, 14 Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe Germany, 15 Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Delft University of Technology Delft The Netherlands, 16 Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography University of Bern Bern Switzerland, 17 School of Mathematical Sciences Queensland University of Technology Brisbane QL Australia, van der Wiel, Karin, 18 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) De Bilt The Netherlands, 19 Department of Infrastructure Engineering Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology The University of Melbourne Melbourne VIC Australia, 20 State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China, and 1 Department of Computational Hydrosystems Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research—UFZ Leipzig Germany
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, Weather and climate, environmental risk, 02 engineering and technology, 910 Geography & travel, Guidelines, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Multidisciplinary approach, Compound events, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), ddc:550, compound events, GE1-350, guidelines, 020701 environmental engineering, Coastal flood, SDG 2 - Zero Hunger, QH540-549.5, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Food security, Multidisciplinary, Ecology, Event (computing), business.industry, Environmental resource management, Flooding (psychology), Environmental risk, Environmental sciences, Earth sciences, Typology, climate change, ddc:551.6, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Climate model, typology, business, multidisciplinary
Abstract: Compound weather and climate events are combinations of climate drivers and/or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Studying compound events often requires a multidisciplinary approach combining domain knowledge of the underlying processes with, for example, statistical methods and climate model outputs. Recently, to aid the development of research on compound events, four compound event types were introduced, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events. However, guidelines on how to study these types of events are still lacking. Here, we consider four case studies, each associated with a specific event type and a research question, to illustrate how the key elements of compound events (e.g., analytical tools and relevant physical effects) can be identified. These case studies show that (a) impacts on crops from hot and dry summers can be exacerbated by preconditioning effects of dry and bright springs. (b) Assessing compound coastal flooding in Perth (Australia) requires considering the dynamics of a non‐stationary multivariate process. For instance, future mean sea‐level rise will lead to the emergence of concurrent coastal and fluvial extremes, enhancing compound flooding risk. (c) In Portugal, deep‐landslides are often caused by temporal clusters of moderate precipitation events. Finally, (d) crop yield failures in France and Germany are strongly correlated, threatening European food security through spatially compounding effects. These analyses allow for identifying general recommendations for studying compound events. Overall, our insights can serve as a blueprint for compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors., Plain Language Summary: Many societal and environmental impacts from events such as droughts and storms arise from a combination of weather and climate factors referred to as a compound event. Considering the complex nature of these high‐impact events is crucial for an accurate assessment of climate‐related risk, for example to develop adaptation and emergency preparedness strategies. However, compound event research has emerged only recently, therefore our ability to analyze these events is still limited. In practice, studying compound events is a challenging task, which often requires interaction between experts across multiple disciplines. Recently, compound events were divided into four types to aid the framing of research on this topic, but guidelines on how to study these four types are missing. Here, we take a pragmatic approach and—focusing on case studies of different compound event types—illustrate how to address specific research questions that could be of interest to users. The results allow identifying recommendations for compound event analyses. Furthermore, through the case studies, we highlight the relevance that compounding effects have for the occurrence of landslides, flooding, vegetation impacts, and crop failures. The guidelines emerged from this work will assist the development of compound event analysis across disciplines and sectors., Key Points: Using case studies representative of four main compound event types we show how compound event‐related research questions can be tackled. We present user‐friendly guidelines for compound event analysis applicable to different compound event types. We demonstrate that compound events cause vegetation impacts, coastal flooding, landslides, and continental‐scale crop yield failures., European COST action DAMOCLES, NERC, Swiss National Science Foundation, Helmholtz Initiative and Networking Fund, Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Scientific Employment Stimulus 2017, Italian Ministry of University and Research, European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, AXA Research Fund for support, Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology
Published: 2021
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46. Compound climate events and extremes in the mid-latitudes: dynamics, simulation and statistical characterisation

Author: Pascal Yiou, Colin Raymond, Paolo De Luca, Kai Kornhuber, Olivia Martius, Dim Coumou, Davide Faranda, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Kunhui Ye, Rodrigo Caballero, Jakob Zscheischler, Flavio Maria Emanuele Pons, Uppsala University, University of Reading (UOR), Stockholm University, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), London Mathematical Laboratory, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Columbia University [New York], Universität Bern [Bern], Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Water and Climate Risk, Earth and Climate, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)
Subjects: Climate events, Atmospheric Science, Climate Research, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Atmospheric circulation, 530 Physics, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 02 engineering and technology, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, Klimatforskning, Statistical techniques, Extreme events, 910 Geography & travel, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 021110 strategic, defence & security studies, Characterization (materials science), 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Middle latitudes, Environmental science
Abstract: The workshop, conducted virtually due to travel restrictions related to COVID-19, gathered scientists from six countries and focused on the mechanistic understanding, statistical characterization, and modeling of societally relevant compound climate events and extremes in the midlatitudes. These ranged from co-occurring hot–humid or wet–windy extremes, to spatially compounding wet and dry extremes, to temporally compounding hot–wet events and more. The aim was to bring together selected experts studying a diverse range of compound climate events and extremes to present their ongoing work and outline challenges and future developments in this societally relevant field of research.
Published: 2021
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47. Evaluation of natural aerosols in CRESCENDO Earth system models (ESMs): Mineral dust

Author: F. M. O'Connor, P. Le Sager, Tommi Bergman, Kenneth S. Carslaw, T. P. C. van Noije, Béatrice Marticorena, Christopher Dearden, Samuel Albani, Joseph M. Prospero, Cat Scott, Michael Schulz, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Yves Balkanski, Anne Cozic, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Pierre Nabat, Martine Michou, Checa-Garcia, R, Balkanski, Y, Albani, S, Bergman, T, Carslaw, K, Cozic, A, Dearden, C, Marticorena, B, Michou, M, Van Noije, T, Nabat, P, O'Connor, F, Olivie, D, Prospero, J, Le Sager, P, Schulz, M, Scott, C, Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Milano], Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca = University of Milano-Bicocca (UNIMIB), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Calcul Scientifique (CALCULS), Centre of Excellence for Modelling the Atmosphere and Climate (CEMAC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), University of Miami [Coral Gables], ANR-19-CE01-0008,CLIMDO,Alteration des poussières minerales par les composés organiques volatiles d'interet climatique(2019), European Project: 708119,H2020,H2020-MSCA-IF-2015,DUSC3(2016), European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca [Milano] (UNIMIB), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, QC1-999, Mineral dust, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Radiative transfer, Earth System Model, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, QD1-999, Aerosol, Optical depth, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Climate Model, Physics, Dust, Radiative forcing, AERONET, Chemistry, Deposition (aerosol physics), 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer, Radiative Forcing
Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the mineral dust aerosol modelled by five Earth system models (ESMs) within the project entitled Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach (CRESCENDO). We quantify the global dust cycle described by each model in terms of global emissions, together with dry and wet deposition, reporting large differences in the ratio of dry over wet deposition across the models not directly correlated with the range of particle sizes emitted. The multi-model mean dust emissions with five ESMs is 2836 Tg yr−1 but with a large uncertainty due mainly to the difference in the maximum dust particle size emitted. The multi-model mean of the subset of four ESMs without particle diameters larger than 10 µ m is 1664 (σ=651) Tg yr−1. Total dust emissions in the simulations with identical nudged winds from reanalysis give us better consistency between models; i.e. the multi-model mean global emissions with three ESMs are 1613 (σ=278) Tg yr−1, but 1834 (σ=666) Tg yr−1 without nudged winds and the same models. Significant discrepancies in the globally averaged dust mass extinction efficiency explain why even models with relatively similar global dust load budgets can display strong differences in dust optical depth. The comparison against observations has been done in terms of dust optical depths based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite products, showing global consistency in terms of preferential dust sources and transport across the Atlantic. The global localisation of source regions is consistent with MODIS, but we found regional and seasonal differences between models and observations when we quantified the cross-correlation of time series over dust-emitting regions. To faithfully compare local emissions between models we introduce a re-gridded normalisation method that can also be compared with satellite products derived from dust event frequencies. Dust total deposition is compared with an instrumental network to assess global and regional differences. We find that models agree with observations within a factor of 10 for data stations distant from dust sources, but the approximations of dust particle size distribution at emission contributed to a misrepresentation of the actual range of deposition values when instruments are close to dust-emitting regions. The observed dust surface concentrations also are reproduced to within a factor of 10. The comparison of total aerosol optical depth with AERONET (AErosol RObotic NETwork) stations where dust is dominant shows large differences between models, although with an increase in the inter-model consistency when the simulations are conducted with nudged winds. The increase in the model ensemble consistency also means better agreement with observations, which we have ascertained for dust total deposition, surface concentrations and optical depths (against both AERONET and MODIS retrievals). We introduce a method to ascertain the contributions per mode consistent with the multi-modal direct radiative effects, which we apply to study the direct radiative effects of a multi-modal representation of the dust particle size distribution that includes the largest particles.
Published: 2021
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48. AeroCom phase III multi-model evaluation of the aerosol life cycle and optical properties using ground- and space-based remote sensing as well as surface in situ observations

Author: A. Heckel, Philippe Le Sager, Paul Ginoux, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Mian Chin, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Samuel Remy, Jan Griesfeller, Huisheng Bian, Harri Kokkola, Yves Balkanski, Svetlana Tsyro, Alf Kirkevåg, Twan van Noije, Susanne E. Bauer, Jonas Gliß, Toshihiko Takemura, Larisa Sogacheva, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Elisabeth Andrews, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gunnar Myhre, Kostas Tsigaridis, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Zak Kipling, Peter North, Anna Benedictow, Paolo Laj, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Swansea University, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Graduate School of Environmental Studies [Nagoya], Nagoya University, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), HYGEOS (SARL), Research Institute for Applied Mechanics [Fukuoka] (RIAM), Kyushu University [Fukuoka], This research has been supported by the Research Council of Norway (EVA (grant no. 229771), INES (grantno. 270061), and KeyClim (grant no. 295046)) and the Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO (grant no. 641816). High performance computing and storage resources were provided bythe Norwegian Infrastructure for Computational Science (throughprojects NN2345K, NN9560K, NS2345K, and NS9560K). Pleasealso note further funding sources in the Acknowledgements, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Kyushu University, and Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
Subjects: MIXING-STATE, Atmospheric Science, Angstrom exponent, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, SEA-SALT AEROSOL, DUST, Forcing (mathematics), Atmospheric sciences, 114 Physical sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Chemistry, Atmosphere, 03 medical and health sciences, SIZE DISTRIBUTION, Radiative transfer, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 1172 Environmental sciences, Optical depth, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, VERTICAL PROFILES, Single-scattering albedo, LIGHT-ABSORPTION, lcsh:QC1-999, AERONET, Aerosol, MODEL, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, DEPTH, GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE, Environmental science, REFRACTIVE-INDEX, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc. Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.
Published: 2021
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49. Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Author: James M. Ciarlo, Nikolay Kadygrov, Filippo Giorgi, Grigory Nikulin, Robert Vautard, Marie-Estelle Demory, Clemens Schwingshackl, Guillaume Levavasseur, Silje Lund Sørland, Marit Sandstad, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Erika Coppola, Jana Sillmann, Rita Nogherotto, Geert Lenderink, Volker Wulfmeyer, Erik van Meijgaard, Fredrik Boberg, Emma Aalbers, Katharina Bülow, Claas Teichmann, Carley Iles, Lola Corre, Samuel Somot, Pierre Nabat, Erik Kjellström, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Météo-France, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), and Universität Hohenheim
Subjects: global model, Atmospheric Science, Climate Research, Global model, Klimatforskning, climate impact indices, Geophysics, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Space and Planetary Science, General Circulation Model, Climatology, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Environmental science, CMIP5, EURO CORDEX, regional climate modeling, CMIP6
Abstract: International audience; This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within the EURO CORDEX project. Projections are available for the two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 members) at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global climate models (GCMs). The RCM ensemble results are compared with the driving CMIP5 global models but also with a subset of available last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected by all ensembles in Northern Europe in winter, along with a maximum precipitation increase there; in summer, maximum warming occurs in the Mediterranean and Southern European regions associated with a maximum precipitation decrease. The CMIP6 ensemble shows the largest signals, both for temperature and precipitation, along with the largest inter model spread. There is a high model consensus across the ensembles on an increase of extreme precipitation and drought frequency in the Mediterranean region. Extreme temperature indices show an increase of heat extremes and a decrease of cold extremes, with CMIP6 showing the highest values and EURO CORDEX the finest spatial details. This data set of unprecedented size and quality will provide the basis for impact assessment and climate service activities for the European region.
Published: 2021
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50. Ground-based validation of the Copernicus Sentinel-5p TROPOMI NO2 measurements with the NDACC ZSL-DOAS, MAX-DOAS and Pandonia global networks

Author: Verhoelst, Tiji, Pinardi, Gala, Eskes, Henk J., Fjæraa, Ann Mari, Boersma, Klaas Folkert, Levelt, Pieternel F., Navarro-Comas, Monica, Piters, Ankie J. M., Sinyakov, Valery P., Strong, Kimberley, Veefkind, Pepijn J., Yela-González, Margarita, Verhoelst, Tijl, Compernolle, Steven, Pinardi, Gaia, Lambert, Jean-Christopher, Eskes, Henk, Eichmann, Kai-Uwe, Fjaeraa, Ann, Granville, José, Niemeijer, Sander, Cede, Alexander, Tiefengraber, Martin, Hendrick, François, Pazmino, Andrea, Bais, Alkiviadis, Bazureau, Ariane, Folkert Boersma, K, Bognar, Kristof, Dehn, Angelika, Donner, Sebastian, Elokhov, Aleksandr, Gebetsberger, Manuel, Goutail, Florence, Grutter de la Mora, Michel, Gruzdev, Aleksandr, Gratsea, Myrto, Hansen, Georg, Irie, Hitoshi, Jepsen, Nis, Kanaya, Yugo, Karagkiozidis, Dimitris, Kivi, Rigel, Kreher, Karin, Levelt, Pieternel, Liu, Cheng, Müller, Moritz, Navarro Comas, Monica, Piters, Ankie, Pommereau, Jean-Pierre, Portafaix, Thierry, Prados-Roman, Cristina, Puentedura, Olga, Querel, Richard, Remmers, Julia, Richter, Andreas, Rimmer, John, Rivera Cárdenas, Claudia, Saavedra De Miguel, Lidia, Sinyakov, Valery, Stremme, Wolfgang, Strong, Kimberly, Van Roozendaël, Michel, Pepijn Veefkind, J, Wagner, Thomas, Wittrock, Folkard, Yela González, Margarita, Zehner, Claus, Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy / Institut d'Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique (BIRA-IASB), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning (NILU), Meteorology and Air Quality Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Instituto Nacional de Técnica Aeroespacial (INTA), Kyrgyz National University of Jusup Balasagyn, Department of Physics [Toronto], University of Toronto, BK Scientific GmbH, Institut für Umweltphysik [Bremen] (IUP), Universität Bremen, Science [&] Technology Corporation [Delft] (S [&] T), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics [Innsbruck], University of Innsbruck, STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, European Space Research Institute (ESRIN), European Space Agency (ESA), Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie (MPIC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Russian Academy of Sciences [Moscow] (RAS), Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera [Mexico], Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Center for Environmental Remote Sensing [Chiba] (CEReS), Chiba University, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Space and Earth Observation Centre [Sodankylä], Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Department of Precision Machinery and Precision Instrumentation [Hefei], University of Science and Technology of China [Hefei] (USTC), Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Lauder] (NIWA), University of Manchester [Manchester], Institute of Environmental Physics [Bremen] (IUP), and University of Bremen
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere
Abstract: International audience; This paper reports on consolidated ground-based validation results of the atmospheric NO2 data produced operationally since April 2018 by the TROPOMI instrument on board of the ESA/EU Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5p) satellite. Tropospheric, stratospheric, and total NO2 column data from S5p are compared to correlative measurements collected from, respectively, 19 Multi-Axis DOAS (MAX-DOAS), 26 NDACC Zenith-Scattered-Light DOAS (ZSL-DOAS), and 25 PGN/Pandora instruments distributed globally. The validation methodology gives special care to minimizing mismatch errors due to imperfect spatio-temporal co-location of the satellite and correlative data, e.g., by using tailored observation operators to account for differences in smoothing and in sampling of atmospheric structures and variability, and photochemical modelling to reduce diurnal cycle effects. Compared to the ground-based measurements, S5p data show, on an average: (i) a negative bias for the tropospheric column data, of typically −23 to −37 % in clean to slightly polluted conditions, but reaching values as high as −51 % over highly polluted areas; (ii) a slight negative bias for the stratospheric column data, of about −0.2 Pmolec/cm2, i.e. approx. −2 % in summer to −15 % in winter; and (iii) a bias ranging from zero to −50 % for the total column data, found to depend on the amplitude of the total NO2 column, with small to slightly positive bias values for columns below 6 Pmolec/cm2 and negative values above. The dispersion between S5p and correlative measurements contains mostly random components, which remain within mission requirements for the stratospheric column data (0.5 Pmolec/cm2), but exceed those for the tropospheric column data (0.7 Pmolec/cm2). While a part of the biases and dispersion may be due to representativeness differences, it is known that errors in the S5p tropospheric columns exist due to shortcomings in the (horizontally coarse) a-priori profile representation in the TM5-MP chemistry transport model used in the S5p retrieval, and to a lesser extent, to the treatment of cloud effects. Although considerable differences (up to 2 Pmolec/cm2 and more) are observed at single ground-pixel level, the near-real-time (NRTI) and off-line (OFFL) versions of the S5p NO2 operational data processor provide similar NO2 column values and validation results when globally averaged, with the NRTI values being on average 0.79 % larger than the OFFL values.
Published: 2021
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