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Socio‐economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyze global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder‐elaborated UK‐SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally‐embedded agent‐based modeling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioral, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario‐specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present‐day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modeled climate change. We develop an open‐access, transferrable model framework and provide UK‐SSP projections to 2080 at 1 km2 resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision‐making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur., Key Points: A national‐scale agent‐based model is developed to represent paired climatic and socio‐economic scenarios in the land system. Key scenario characteristics relate to forms of human behavior, interactions and societal preferences. Large differences emerge between scenarios in terms of land management intensities, ecosystem service provision and land sparing., Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318, Natural Environment Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270, Climate Resilience Programme, Forestry Commission UK Forestry Commission http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100017497, UKRI, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266, Global Food Security Programme, DAAD, German Academic Exchange Service London http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001654, Government of the United Kingdom http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013986, Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001655, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009133, Leibniz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664, https://landchange.earth/CRAFTY, https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/CY8WE

Socio-economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been widely used to analyse global change impacts, but representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set of stakeholder-elaborated UK-SSP scenarios, linked to climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a globally-embedded agent-based modelling framework. We find that distinct model components are required to account for divergent behavioural, social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and technological intensification in SSP5, scenario-specific model designs vary widely from one another and from present-day conditions. Changes in social and human capitals reflecting social cohesion, equality, health and education can generate impacts larger than those of technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modelled climate change. We develop an open-access, transferrable model framework and provide UK-SSP projections to 2080 at 1km2 resolution, revealing large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land manager decision-making. These differences suggest the existence of large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel options for land system sustainability could occur.

(eng): Supplying food for the anticipated global population of over 9 billion in 2050 under changing climate conditions is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Agricultural expansion and intensification, contributes to global environmental change, and risks the long-term sustainability of the planet. It has been proposed that no more than 15% of the global ice-free land surface should be converted to cropland. Bioenergy production for land-based climate mitigation places additional pressure on limited land resources. Here we test normative targets of food supply and bioenergy production within the cropland planetary boundary using a global land-use model. The results suggest supplying the global population with adequate food is possible without cropland expansion exceeding the planetary boundary. Yet this requires an increase in food production, especially in developing countries, as well as a decrease in global crop yield gaps. However under current assumptions of future food requirements, it was not possible to also produce significant amounts of first generation bioenergy without cropland expansion. These results suggest that meeting food and bioenergy demands within the planetary boundaries would need a shift away from current trends, for example, requiring major change in the demand-side of the food system or advancing biotechnologies.

An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the population has grown by only 33%. In the PLUREL project - an integrated project within the EU’s 6th Research Framework Programme - more than 100 researchers from 15 countries analysed the impacts of urban land consumption at a pan-European level and, through six European and one Chinese case studies, identified how land use conflicts and the pressure towards peri-urban areas can be strategically managed in different development and regulatory contexts. To summarise, the following strategies were identified as important steps towards more sustainable urban-rural futures: (i) better coordination of transport, land use and open space planning; (ii) urban containment and densification – development of a green compact city; (iii) preservation of blue and green infrastructure; and (iv) preservation of agricultural land and the promotion of local production. The need also remains to strengthen governance at the regional level while at the pan-European level there is clearly a need for more policy attention to be given to urban-rural linkages.

International audience; An important driving force behind urban expansion is the growth of the urban population. But for Europe, this is not a sufficient explanation. The major trend is that European cities have become much less compact. Since the mid-1950s European cities have expanded on average by 78%, whereas the population has grown by only 33%. In the PLUREL project - an integrated project within the EU's 6th Research Framework Programme - more than 100 researchers from 15 countries analysed the impacts of urban land consumption at a pan-European level and, through six European and one Chinese case studies, identified how land use conflicts and the pressure towards peri-urban areas can be strategically managed in different development and regulatory contexts. To summarise, the following strategies were identified as important steps towards more sustainable urban-rural futures: (i) better coordination of transport, land use and open space planning; (ii) urban containment and densification - development of a green compact city; (iii) preservation of blue and green infrastructure; and (iv) preservation of agricultural land and the promotion of local production. The need also remains to strengthen governance at the regional level while at the pan-European level there is clearly a need for more policy attention to be given to urban-rural linkages.

The environmental consequences of global climate change are predicted to have their greatest effect at high latitudes and have great potential to impact fragile tundra ecosystems. The Arctic tundra is a vast biodiversity resource and provides breeding areas for many migratory geese. Importantly, tundra ecosystems\ud also currently act as a global carbon “sink”, buffering carbon emissions from human activities. In January 2003, a new three year project was implemented to understand and model the interrelationships between goose population dynamics, conservation, European land use/agriculture and climate change. A range of potential future climate and land-use scenarios will be applied to the models and combined with information from field experiments on grazing and climate change in the Arctic. This paper describes the content of the research programme as well as issues in relation to engaging stakeholders with the project.

International audience