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This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on global migration and inequality. Accounting for the effects of changing temperatures, sea levels, and the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, we model the impact of climate change on productivity and utility in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. By endogenizing people’s migration decisions across millions of $5 \times 5$ km spatial cells, our approach sheds light on the magnitude and dyadic, education-specific structure of human migration induced by global warming. We find that climate change strongly intensifies global inequality and poverty, reinforces urbanization, and boosts migration from low- to high-latitude areas. Median projections suggest that climate change will induce a voluntary and a forced permanent relocation of 62 million working-age individuals over the course of the 21st century. Overall, under current international migration laws and policies, only a small fraction of people suffering from the negative effects of climate change manages to move beyond their homelands. We conclude that it is unlikely that climate shocks will induce massive international flows of migrants, except under combined extremely pessimistic climate scenarios and highly permissive migration policies. In contrast, poverty resulting from climate change is a real threat to all of us.

Since 2020, the stringent distancing measures put in place around the world in response to the spread of the COVID virus have highlighted the vital importance of digital technologies for maintaining economic exchanges and social interactions. As a result, increased digitalization may have softened the deleterious impact of containment measures on economic activity and human capital in both developed and developing countries (Guillaumont, 2020; Ma et al, 2021, Chiou and Tucker, 2020). By reducing transaction costs and informational asymmetries (Aker, 2017; Goldfarb and Tucker, 2019), digital technologies are expected to boost firms’ organizational and production capacities, to improve goods, services and financial markets functioning, to correct government failures, and therefore, to help them coping with the COVID crisis., Depuis 2020, les mesures de distanciation rigoureuses mises en place dans le monde entier en réponse à la propagation du virus Covid-19 ont mis en évidence l’importance vitale des technologies numériques pour le maintien des échanges économiques et des interactions sociales. Ainsi, une numérisation accrue1 a pu atténuer l’impact délétère des mesures de confinement sur l’activité économique et le capital humain dans les pays développés et en développement (Guillaumont, 2020 ; Ma et al, 2021, Chiou et Tucker, 2020).

La capacité à porter et à mettre en œuvre les textes, traités et projets communautaires, pourtant ratifiés, est devenue, depuis quelques années, une préoccupation majeure dans la communauté économique et monétaire de l’Afrique centrale (CEMAC). À titre d’illustration, l’Acte Additionnel n°02/01-CEMAC-066-CE-03 portant création d'une Compagnie Communautaire de Transports Aériens en zone CEMAC, pris en 2001 n’a jamais été appliqué. Il en est de même du Règlement N°9/00/CEMAC-067-CM-04 portant adoption du réseau routier intégrateur et prioritaire de la CEMAC. [...]

International audience; The voluntary reallocation of a portion of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from advanced countries to developing countries is potentially an important transformation in the international monetary system. Attention has so far been focused on the channels of this reallocation, because of the need to preserve the reserve asset nature of SDRs. The IMF is considering three options (Pazarbasioglu and Ramakrishnan, 2021). First, it is proposed to increase the size of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). Second, the IMF could create a new IMF-administered Resilience and Sustainability Trust, or RST: The proposed RST would support policy reforms to help build economic resilience and sustainability in low-income countries and small states, as well as vulnerable middle-income countries. Third, the IMF could channel SDRs to other prescribed SDR holders, comprising 15 organizations including the World Bank, some regional central banks, and multilateral development banks. The three options are non-mutually exclusive.

As commonly agreed, the vulnerability of a country is here considered as the risk it will be hurt by exogenous shocks. The vulnerability of countries has been recognised since the beginning of development economics as one of the main problems they face, due to shocks, either of external or natural origin. For decades, there has been a rich literature on the economic, social and political consequences of unstable export earnings. More recently, there has been a growing concern about other kinds of vulnerability, linked to shocks such as outbreaks of violence and other expressions of political fragility, epidemics, natural disasters and, above all, climate change: the vulnerability that climate change brings to developing countries in varying degrees constitutes a global challenge., Selon l’acception courante, retenue ici, la vulnérabilité d’un pays est le risque pour lui d’être affecté par des chocs exogènes. La vulnérabilité des pays est reconnue depuis le début de l’économie du développement comme un des principaux problèmes auxquels ils ont à faire face, en raison de chocs, d’origine soit externe soit naturelle. Pendant des décennies, une abondante littérature a pu ainsi traiter des conséquences économiques, sociales et politiques de l’instabilité des recettes d’exportations. Plus récemment, une préoccupation croissante est apparue à propos d’autres sortes de vulnérabilité, liées à des chocs tels que les flambées de violence et d’autres expressions de la fragilité politique, les épidémies, les désastres naturels et surtout le changement climatique : la vulnérabilité que celui-ci entraîne à des degrés divers dans les pays en développement constitue un défi à l’échelle mondiale.

The MVI project was born from a UN General Assembly Resolution that gives it legitimacy, conditioned by its economic rationale (see the previous notes prepared for UNDESA-OHRLLS for their support to the work of the High-Level Panel on MVI: Guillaumont, Feindounou, Wagner, 2022; and Guillaumont, 2022).

Expansion of Global Value Chains (GVCs) is a mixed blessing for the environment. Effects of growth and emissions from transport associated with international trade have negative effects; but greater flows of knowledge and associated spillovers, and adoption of environmentally innovative products have positive effects. This paper provides evidence on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 51 African and 132 other countries for 163 products over the period 1995‒2015. The resulting landscape is summarized in four patterns. Patterns identified for the Africa region differ from those identified for other regions but are closely related to a synthetic aggregate comparator constructed on the basis of three characteristics (per capita income, share of manufacturing in GDP, and distance to trading partners). 1: All regions have reduced emission intensities over the period 1995‒2015. Africa's share of global CO2 emissions has remained constant over the period 1995‒2015. Asia, already the region with the largest share of global emission in 1995, has strengthened its leading polluter position. Europe and the Americas have reduced their share of emissions by nine and eight percentage points, respectively. Asia is decarbonizing; Africa not yet. 2: Carbon intensity of production has increased in Africa in both decades, though much less so over the period 2005‒2015 when, on average, emissions grew less rapidly than population. Over half of the 20 African top emitting countries shifted towards more carbon-intensive techniques. 3: Source of regional total emissions: Over the period 1995‒2015, intra-regional shares of emissions fell by seven, ten, and two percentage points to 84%, 75%, and 88% for Africa, Europe, and Asia, respectively. Africa's share of emissions originating from Asia rose from 4% to 11%. Europe's share of emissions originating from Africa and Asia rose from 2% and 8% to 4% and 16%, respectively 4: The export basket of Africa is skewed towards high CO2e intensity products. CO2 emission intensities are positively correlated with both the output upstreamness (OU) and input downstreamness (ID). The OU/ID indicator of position in a supply chain is negatively correlated with CO2 emission intensities within regions. The fit is higher at the sectoral level. For manufactures, being more upstream by 1% is associated with a higher emissions intensity of 0.61%. For the other sectors, the relation is negative, and largest for Agriculture and Construction.

International audience; Le Conseil d’administration du FMI a approuvé le 22 juillet 2021, une réforme de ses modalités de soutien aux pays pauvres. Cette réforme a notamment consisté à relever, voire en cas exceptionnel à supprimer les limites d’accès aux financements offerts par le FMI aux pays pauvres. Elle constitue une étape supplémentaire dans l’évolution de l’action du FMI dans ces pays, caractérisée par deux objectifs principaux. Le premier objectif a été d’adapter les objectifs et les conditionnalités des programmes du FMI aux vulnérabilités propres de ces pays, dans le respect des limites de son mandat, ce qui s’est notamment traduit, en 1999, par la transformation de la facilité d’ajustement structurel renforcée en facilité pour la croissance et la réduction de la pauvreté.Le second objectif, qui est central dans les périodes de crise comme celle de la crise Covid, est d’apporter une réponse plus flexible, plus rapide et mieux calibrée aux défis du financement des PFR face aux déséquilibres budgétaires et extérieurs engendrés par des chocs exogènes, mais qui ont souvent aussi une dimension structurelle1. En effet, si le FMI a pu en 2020, multiplier par plus de 10 ses concours aux pays pauvres, devenant ainsi leur premier bailleur de fond, nombre de pays avaient atteint ou étaient proches de leurs limites. Pour autant, cette réforme ne permet pas d’atteindre le bout du chemin : l’accès des PFR aux ressources du FMI est encore trop limité et la conditionnalité attachée à ces financements n’est pas assez liée au développement à long terme.

Impact, sens. Le merveilleux film de Sofia Coppola, « Lost in Translation », de 2003, disserte avec génie sur la rencontre, le mal-être, le langage, l'isolement… Avec une infinie modestie, l'objet de cet article est, à son image, de rendre compte de la rencontre si difficile et il faut l'espérer moins désespérée, entre l'économie générale de notre temps et la communauté de l'investissement d'impact. Sa principale thèse est un plaidoyer pour l'armement, scientifique de cette dernière. Il semble en effet que l'ensemble de l'économie mondiale se soit rendue à une vaste entreprise de conviction que produire et vendre ne serait plus, comme Adam Smith aimait le rappeler, seulement une affaire de profit et d'intérêt de la part de notre boucher , mais avant tout une question de contribution.

The paper reports on evidence on how trade can help Africa adapt to Climate Change (CC) along three dimensions: (i) fast-onset events from short-lived extreme occurrences (floods, extreme temperatures); (ii) slow-onset events (rise in average temperatures and sea-level rise); (iii) trade facilitation policies. • Fast onset events. Trade reduces the amplitude of extreme events like a drought. But policy reactions to large shocks can increase the amplitude of the shock. During the South African drought of 2015-6, policies had spillovers in neighboring countries. Following the 2008-09 financial crisis, export restrictions by major crop exporters and reduction in tariffs by importers amplified the shock. Policy coordination is needed to control spillover effects. • Slow-onset events. Modelling efforts have concentrated on exploring the ‘margins’ of adjustment to CC: changes in production levels of existing crops; switches in crops; changes in land utilization; labor relocating to urban areas/migration; adjustments in the volume of trade at different scales (regional or international). All reviewed models show that enlarging the channels of adjustment mitigate the amplitude of the loss in welfare from expected CC over the 21st Century. Decomposing the welfare changes suggests two conclusions. First adjustments in crop selection and in bilateral trade partners contribute approximately equally to reducing the costs of adjustments. Second, the expected sharp increase in food prices resulting from warming is likely to hit SSA most strongly. • Trade facilitation. A functioning global trading system is a public good to become more valuable under CC. Free and unfettered access to global food (and other key) supplies must be ensured, especially for Africa. This requires a rapprochement between the trade and climate regimes. As an entry point, besides dealing with harmful subsidies (fossil fuels, fisheries), developed countries could conclude a plurilateral Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) that would be a triple win for trade, for the environment, and for African agriculture that needs tariff-free access to climate-Adaptation related EGs (AEGs). The paper documents the magnitude of tariffs on Environmental Goods. The paper concludes that African countries could improve the functioning of the continental policy architecture by several measures. First by excluding AEGs from exclusion lists on the AfCFTA while simultaneously reducing their barriers to trade on AEGs and EPPs. Second, preserving the environment should be mainstreamed in the African trade architecture by including environmental provisions.

Le programme de la Présidence française pour l’Union européenne indique sous le chapitre « développement » que la France entend contribuer au renouvellement des politiques européennes envers les Pays les moins avancés (PMA). Il est curieux de constater que la traduction anglaise de ce document n’utilise pas la dénomination officielle de cette catégorie de pays, à savoir « Least developed countries », mais l’expression plus vague « less developed countries », générique et non catégorielle.Cette erreur de traduction est symptomatique d’une tendance fréquente y compris parmi les personnes qui s’occupent de développement à confondre « Pays les moins avancés », groupe de pays, défini de façon précise à partir de plusieurs critères, qui constitue le seul sous-ensemble de pays en développement officiellement reconnu par les Nations unies, et les pays dits peu ou moins développés pour lesquels il n’existe pas de définition convenue, voire les « pays à faible revenu », définis par le seul critère du revenu par tête.

This study aims to identify drivers of spatial migration in the context of regional structural transformation towards clean and connected cities. Using two surveys of floating population covering all cities, conducted by China Family Planning Commission in 2010 and 2014, we examine the effect of city characteristics and local policies on the mobility of migrants. Our analyses show that city size, wage level, sectoral composition, ownership structure of enterprises, and healthcare service provision are important factors that condition migratory inflow; their effect varies across migrants with different characteristics. While most of migrants moved to the regional hubs, migration to cities other than hubs has increased in the 2010s and many medium and small cities have become more attractive.

In the general presentation of the criteria that the MVI should meet, we emphasized the importance of the way by which the three dimensions of the MVI are averaged in a single index and the need to limit the substitutability between them, so that the specific vulnerability of each country can be fairly reflected. [...]

The Physical Vulnerability to Climate Change Index (Feindouno et al., 2020) is a composite indicator computed at country level (191 countries) that can be used for the identification of the most vulnerable countries and as a criterion for guiding the international allocation of resources for adaptation. In this paper we present the details of the computation of the PVCCI at the sub-national level (2nd sub-national administrative level in the GADM database), representing 47,138 administrative units in the World (covering all land but Antarctica). It aims at measuring vulnerability to climate change at a finer geographic level, which is particularly relevant for countries that are characterized by high geoclimatic diversity. It would help identify the most vulnerable subnational administrative units and could be used as an instrument of adaptation planning.

Strong participation in Global Supply Chains (GSCs) (aka Global Value Chains (GVCs)) is an indication of the structural transformation at the heart of the ‘Africa we want’ described in African Union’s Agenda 2063 project. We discuss challenges at measuring GSCs and report new input- output based measures (upstreamness and downstreamness of exports) at several levels: across countries, regions, and sectors over the period 1995-2015. We also report participation measures based on firm-level data and new estimates of factors affecting participation of sectors in GVCs over the period 1995-2015. On average, for both Africa and MENA, exports have a low content of imported intermediates and exports undergo further transformation in destination countries before reaching consumers. Compared with other regions, both Africa and MENA mostly engage in supply chain trade with countries outside their respective region. Firm-level estimates for several countries show that African firms are scarcely engaged in supply chain trade. In sum, in spite of regional trade agreements focussing on reducing trade barriers to intra-regional trade, regional value chains have failed to develop in both regions. [...]

International audience; Comme chaque année, le Rapport de la Commission Bancaire (CB) donne de précieuses informations sur les systèmes financiers des pays de l’Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA). Sa version 2020 permet de relever plusieurs caractéristiques majeures de l’évolution récente de la « finance intermédiée » dans cette zone. Au vu du rapport de la CB pour l’année 2018, trois grandes orientations avaient été soulignées: un nombre de banques toujours en croissance, contrairement aux regroupements attendus ; d’importants efforts pour le respect de dispositions réglementaires plus exigeantes; l’émergence des Émetteurs de Monnaie Électronique (EME).

The literature on Optimal Currency Areas (OCA) has identified several channels for the ex post justification of the synchronicity criterion of common monetary areas. These include trade, cross-border investments, mobility of factors, mobility of goods and services, and fiscal convergence of member countries. We focus on the later for the African continent. We analyze the role of African regional economic communities (RECs) in the convergence of fiscal policies from 1990 to 2015. Our estimates show that African RECs significantly reduce fiscal divergence between countries. Furthermore, we find that common monetary areas are more effective in fostering fiscal convergence. This result is in line with the argument of self-validation of monetary arrangements in Africa, despite low levels of cycle synchronization and trade intensity.

International audience; The decision to allocate SDRs up to 455 billion (i.e. approximately USD 650 billion), taken by the G20 and which should be validated by the IMF’s Executive Board before the end of the summer, entails a more than threefold increase in the stock of public SDRs. Until now, a very large part of these SDRs has remained immobilized in the balance sheets of the central banks of the major economies. The new dimension that this instru-ment is taking on has initiated a reflection on how to make this injection of international liquidity more effective by redirecting it to the countries that need it. This reflection is also taking place in a context where the public finances of the main official development assistance donor countries are under pressure due to the consequences of the health crisis.; La décision de procéder à une allocation de DTS à hauteur de 455 milliards (soit environ 650 milliards d’USD), prise par le G20 et qui devrait être validée par la Conseil d’administration du FMI avant la fin de l’été, entraîne une multiplication par plus de 3 du stock de DTS publics. Jusqu’à maintenant une très grande partie de ces DTS reste immobilisée dans les bilans des banques centrales des grandes économies. La nouvelle dimension que prend cet instrument a initié une réflexion sur le moyen de rendre plus efficace cette injection de liquidité internationale en la redirigeant vers les pays qui en ont besoin. Cette réflexion s’inscrit également dans un contexte où les finances publiques des principaux pays donateurs d’aide publique au développement sont sous pression du fait des conséquences de la crise sanitaire.

International audience; Le transport et la logistique sont une composante essentielle de la compétitivité. En Afrique, où ces coûts représentent entre 15 à 20% de la valeur CAF des importations, ils sont trois à quatre fois plus élevés qu’ailleurs dans le monde (Raballand et Teravaninthorn, 2009). Ils constituent un obstacle majeur à la diversification de la base productive (Alfonso et Vergara, 2019 ; Hoekman et Nicita, 2011). Compte tenu de la fragmentation des processus de production (Feenstra, 1998 ; Radelet et Sachs, 1998), les coûts commerciaux influencent fortement la rentabilité de la production de biens échangeables, freinant l’émergence de l’industrie manufacturière africaine et notamment des biens faisant partie de chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales (Christ et Ferrantino, 2011). Il y a une vingtaine d’années, Limao et Venables (2001) établissaient que les coûts du transport terrestre étaient 7 fois plus élevés par unité de distance que ceux du transport maritime qui représente plus de 80% du commerce extérieur de l’Afrique.

Africa is well endowed with organizations to promote regional cooperation and integration. It has 8 African Union (AU)-recognized regional economic communities (RECs), 7 other economic organizations and 25 specialized regional organizations (ROs). On average each country is member of 3 RECs and 4 other ROs. The number of continental treaties signed by African Union member states has accelerated over the last four decades. At the same time, progress on ratifying and implementing these and their regional equivalents is slow, undermining their impacts. This has led to calls to rationalize memberships. At its 50th anniversary in 2013, the AU launched the 50year AU2063 programme, "The Africa we want, " with 15 flagship projects, heralding a renewed push towards continent-wide projects.

International audience; The private sector plays a crucial role in promoting the sustainable development. It is generally accepted that firms creates wealth, generates jobs and thus contributes to improving the living conditions of populations; while being able to increasingly ensure the preservation of natural resources, biodiversity and the climate and promoting the emancipation of women.

Does local internet diffusion spur manufacturing firm performance in developing countries? To answer this question, we conduct instrumental variable estimations, using repeated cross-section data on 40,154 manufacturing firms from 91 developing and transition economies, and find that a 10 percentage-point increase in the incidence of email use in locations where firms operate, raises by 36% their sales and sales per worker. This evidence turns out to be driven by the local dissemination of email technology within industries, rather than across industries. This higher performance in manufacturing is also found to be accompanied by output diversification, driven by inter-industry spillovers, and work-force contraction, driven by intra-industry ones. However, we further provide evidence of U-shaped inter-industry spillovers, i.e. negative inter-industry spillovers turning positive once the email incidence threshold reaches ∼ 50% of the local universe of firms, suggesting that network effects are at play. Last, these threshold effects seem related to the presence of outward-oriented firms, which tend to operate in places where internet is more diffused. Overall, this paper shows that local industrialisation paces may diverge between poorly and highly digitalised environments.

Ever since the creation of the WTO, attempts at bringing together the trade and climate regime have failed. This paper reviews attempts at reducing tariffs on products classified as Environmental Goods (EGs), causes of failure in past attempts, and suggests requirements for a meaningful agenda in future attempts. The start is the failure at the negotiations on the Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) negotiations started in 2014 and abandoned in 2016. Discussion on prospects is around elements that would enter 'EGA-STyle' (EGAST) negotiations among a small group of countries. The paper starts with new descriptive data on the inclusion of provisions in Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) across the world encouraging trade in EGs. However, the presence of these provisions in RTAs has not been reflected in increased bilateral trade in EGs among RTA members, confirming the relevance of continuing to revive momentum to reduce barriers to trade in EGs. Discussion of reasons for failure at the EGA (and earlier at the Doha Round) follow. An EGAST agenda should go beyond the elimination of ‘nuisance tariffs’ to include high energy-efficiency EGs and high-tariff products. The EG list should also include Environmentally Preferable Products. As to the difficult-to-detect Non-tariff Barriers (e.g. non-tariff measures), among which some are protectionist in intent, they should be included in the agenda up for mutual recognition. The paper concludes that EGAST negotiations to reduce barriers to trade in EGs would still be a promising avenue for rapprochement between the trade and climate regimes.

The paper investigates the pace of technology adoption in telecom technology post liberalization and its effect on stock returns using a new global panel dataset. Results are twofold. First, evidence points to the complementarity between telecom liberalization and regulatory independence in driving a sustained pace of technology adoption. Second, results show a positive and economically significant effect of telecom adoption on stock returns pointing to significant spillovers of telecom to the rest of the economy.

As happened in West Africa in 2008, in an imported inflation context, it is common for the governments to take short-term tax action to protect the poor: VAT or trade tariffs exemptions. As part of the tax-tariff transition, the comparison between Trade tariffs and VAT has already been the subject of much works. The introduction of VAT, as a tax on final consumption, is supposed to be optimal, due to its economically neutral aspect for production decisions. However, some authors show that in developing countries, a large informal sector affects this result. In this paper, we use a CGE model and a micro-simulation model to compare the effects of VAT and Trade tariffs exemptions to combat rising agricultural food prices.

Version anglaise de : Guillaumont P., Guillaumont Jeanneney S., Wagner L (2021): Comment allouer les financements externes aux pays africains? Le défi de la vulnérabilité. Propositions pour le Sommet sur le financement des économies africaines. Ferdi, Note brève B217, avril; International audience; If it becomes possible to mobilize significant external financing for Africa, it is necessary to consider simultaneously how these flows will be distributed among the various African countries. The issues facing the Summit are both Africa’s relative financing needs and the respective needs of African countries. Not all of these countries have the same needs or the same capacity to use them effectively.; S’il devient possible de mobiliser des financements extérieurs importants à destination des pays africains, il faut simultanément s’interroger sur la façon dont ces flux seront répartis entre les différents pays. Les questions auxquelles le Sommet doit faire face sont à la fois celle des besoins de financement relatifs de l’Afrique et celle des besoins respectifs des différents pays africains. En effet, ces pays n’ont pas tous les mêmes besoins, ni la même capacité d’absorption

International audience; The private sector plays a crucial role in promoting the sustainable development. It is generally accepted that firms creates wealth, generates jobs and thus contributes to improving the living conditions of populations; while being able to increasingly ensure the preservation of natural resources, biodiversity and the climate and promoting the emancipation of women.

All members of the WTO participate in the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) that is to reduce border and documentary compliance in customs. Successful implementation should benefit all countries, the developing countries and more particularly the three categories of vulnerable countries receiving special status at the UN: Least Developed Countries (LDCs), the Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) and the Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This paper gives plausible estimates (in the sense of realizable at the country and group levels) of reduction in trade costs from a successful implementing of the TFA. The paper starts with a presentation of the TFA noting its two principal characteristics. First, the TFA is a rules-based bottom-up approach built into the agreement that takes into account countries’ implementation capabilities, an important feature for the three groups of UN vulnerable countries. Second, the TFA provisions are monitorable (e.g. provisions like the publication of information, advance rulings, appeal or review of decisions, transparency, and border agency cooperation). In preparation for the agreement, the OECD has assembled large amount of indicators of the state of implementation of provisions in the TFA summarized in a TFI (Trade Facilitation Index). TFI values for 2019 are then used to evaluate econometrically the impact of implementing TFA on the waiting-time reduction at customs for a sample of 160 countries. Average ad-valorem equivalents (AVEs) of reduction of time in customs estimates for each UN-grouping (LDCs, LLDCs, and SIDS) show averages in the range 2.1%-2.9% for imports and 1.9%-2-7% for exports. Larger gains are obtained for a more ambitious implementation of the TFA. Importantly, gains are larger for each of the three groupings than for other developing countries, a corroboration that the UN vulnerable categories capture an aspect of vulnerability.

In this article we uncover a positive effect of both export booms and busts on firm-level corruption. Our theory underlines the central role played by human capital in the underlying mechanism. In low human capital settings, export-related revenues are highly elastic to incremental gains of export shares, thence pushing firms to intensify corruption with export busts so as to avoid a radical drop in their revenues. In high human capital settings, export booms lead to more corruption as an increment of export share achieved through bribery concerns a large export market. We corroborate these findings with an extensive database of some 45,000 firms from 72 developing and transition economies, surveyed over 2006-2017. Besides confirming that export booms and busts corrupt and highlighting the mediating role of human capital, we also highlight the corruption-deterrent effect institutions during export market expansion and contraction.

The private sector plays a crucial role in promoting the sustainable development. It is generally accepted that firms creates wealth, generates jobs and thus contributes to improving the living conditions of populations; while being able to increasingly ensure the preservation of natural resources, biodiversity and the climate and promoting the emancipation of women.

International audience

If it becomes possible to mobilize significant external financing for Africa, it is necessary to consider how these flows will be distributed among the various African countries. The issues facing the Summit are both Africa’s financing needs compared to those of regions and the respective needs of the various African countries. Not all of these countries have the same needs or the same absorptive capacity., S’il devient possible de mobiliser des financements extérieurs importants à destination des pays africains, il faut simultanément s’interroger sur la façon dont ces flux seront répartis entre les différents pays. Les questions auxquelles le Sommet doit faire face sont à la fois celle des besoins de financement relatifs de l’Afrique et celle des besoins respectifs des différents pays africains. En effet, ces pays n’ont pas tous les mêmes besoins, ni la même capacité d’absorption

Very soon after the first cases of Covid appeared on the African continent, governments adopted a series of measures to limit its spread. To be effective, these measures require that they be widely accepted and respected by the population, notwithstanding their various costs to the individual. Compliance depends on numerous individual and collective cultural, socio-economic, institutional and environmental factors, as well as on the perception of the risks involved and the severity of the protean consequences that the pandemic may generate.We examine these various issues based on data from a survey conducted in Burkina Faso in May-June 2020. The results show that the measures adopted by the authorities to limit the spread of the pandemic are generally fairly well respected. The vast majority of respondents take the epidemic very seriously and consider that the health consequences, and even more so the economic consequences, will be serious. The survey also shows that a large proportion of respondents are concerned about the consequences of the epidemic on the deepening of inequalities and the increase in violence and insecurity. The results highlight both common features and great heterogeneity in perception and behavioral response at the individual and regional levels, thus providing useful information for Burkina Faso's decision-makers to better calibrate the prevention strategies to be implemented as the pandemic accelerates in Burkina as in other African countries and the prospect of broad immunization coverage remains both distant and highly uncertain, Très rapidement après l’apparition des premiers cas de Covid sur le continent africain, les gouvernements ont adopté une série de mesures visant à en limiter la propagation. Pour être efficaces, ces mesures exigent qu’elles soient très largement acceptées et respectées par la population nonobstant les coûts de diverses natures qui en résultent pour chacun. Or l’observance des dispositions dépend de nombreux facteurs individuels et collectifs d’ordre culturel, socio-économique, institutionnel et environnemental, ainsi que de la perception que chacun a des risques encourus et de la gravité des conséquences protéiformes que la pandémie peut engendrer.Nous examinons ces différentes questions à partir des données d’une enquête effectuée au Burkina Faso en mai – juin 2020. Il en ressort que les mesures préconisées par les autorités pour limiter la propagation de la pandémie sont globalement assez bien respectées. La grande majorité des répondants prend l’épidémie très au sérieux et considère que les conséquences sanitaires et, plus encore les conséquences économiques, en seront graves. L’enquête montre également qu’une grande partie des répondants est soucieuse des conséquences de l’épidémie sur le creusement des inégalités et sur l’accentuation de la violence et de l’insécurité. Les résultats mettent en évidence à la fois des traits communs et une grande hétérogénéité de perception et de réponse comportementale au niveau individuel et au niveau régional. Il s’en dégage par suite des éléments d’information utiles aux décideurs Burkinabés pour mieux calibrer les stratégies de prévention à mettre en œuvre alors que la pandémie s’accélère au Burkina comme dans les autres pays africains et que la perspective d’une large couverture vaccinale demeure lointaine.

Cet article présente une méthode originale d’évaluation de l’impact des projets d’aide au développement dans les zones fragiles et difficiles d’accès, sur la base d’un exemple appliqué aux pays du G5 Sahel. Sur la base de données géolocalisées et en utilisant des informations détaillées sur les projets de la Banque mondiale fournies par AIDDATA, des enquêtes périodiques (DHS, EPA) et des données sur la luminosité nocturne, cet article montre qu’il est possible de mener des évaluations d’impact à coût limité et en respectant les contraintes méthodologiques de ce type d’évaluations, notamment : (i) le problème lié à la définition d’un contrefactuel. Il est possible de localiser les individus par rapport à l’emplacement du projet, et la définition d’un rayon d’action permet d’identifier deux groupes (un groupe traité et un groupe de référence).

International audience; S’il devient possible de mobiliser des financements extérieurs importants à destination des pays africains, il faut simultanément s’interroger sur la façon dont ces flux seront répartis entre les différents pays. Les questions auxquelles le Sommet doit faire face sont à la fois celle des besoins de financement relatifs de l’Afrique et celle des besoins respectifs des différents pays africains. En effet, ces pays n’ont pas tous les mêmes besoins, ni la même capacité d’absorption.

Multiple initiatives across sub-Saharan Africa are currently leveraging digital technologies to provide transformative solutions to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as well as consumers across the region. This paper presents a deeper dive on several promising key players currently pushing frontiers in the digitalisation landscape in sub-Saharan Africa, with a particular focus on West Africa where possible. All highlighted firms use cutting-edge technologies and digital innovations to improve MSME development and job creation by addressing key obstacles to development prevalent in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa, including market failures, missing infrastructures, and insufficient levels of public intervention. Some of the firms described are MSMEs themselves or are in the start-up phase, while others are larger, more established firms that serve MSMEs among their clientele bases. Although the description of sectors, technologies, and enterprises presented in this paper is by no means exhaustive, it nevertheless provides an in-depth picture of several African firms leveraging a diverse set of technologies, serving diverse communities, and offering a wide array of products and services destined for MSMEs and consumers alike.

International audience; Despite Mauritius’ history of resilience, Jaime de Melo highlights some of the country’s fragilities in terms of governance, environmental protection and human capital. In the short-run, he calls on the country to improve its governance by committing to external scrutiny and to resist protectionist winds. In the longer-run, the article highlights three imperatives: 1) a substantial boost in education to enable the country to grab opportunities brought about by the 4th industrial revolution, 2) the development of a services hub for Africa and 3) greater preservation of the environment to reverse the current rapid environmental degradation on the island.

The authors assess to what extent the Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) provides assistance to LDCs through its “Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS)” towards more effective trade and development policies. The DTISs raison d’étre is to improve LDC’s trade capabilities and - thence - reduce their levels of poverty. A key feature of LDCs economies are their agricultural commodities. DTIS are intended to guide LDCs in increasing the quantity, quality and value-addition of exports of agricultural commodities; creating jobs and increase welfare. Thus, better understanding how products best fit into the global supply and global value chains (GSC/GVC) becomes critical. Our analysis shows that the new guidelines for the DTISs of 2018 do not sufficiently address the Global/Regional Supply and Value Chains.

International audience; La Fondation pour les Études et Recherches sur le Développement International (Ferdi), domiciliée à Clermont-Ferrand, vient de terminer une passionnante étude menée pour le compte de la Fondation Prospective et Innovation sur « Les déterminants des conflits internes dans le monde : Comment estimer les risques et mieux cibler les efforts de prévention ». Par comparaison aux théories existantes sur les conflits et les analyses statistiques sur ce sujet, la Ferdi apporte dans son travail plusieurs avancées notables. On y trouve par exemple les justifications de l’existence de deux types de risques différentiés-risques structurels et risques non structurels-, la mise au point d’un indicateur qui estime les probabilités d’apparition d’un conflit interne, et la mise en évidence de l’importance de la prévention des conflits, rendue possible grâce à la meilleure connaissance des risques majeurs. Même si les conclusions de cette étude peuvent s’appliquer à l’ensemble des pays en développement, ses auteurs portent une attention particulière au Sahel, devenu dans les années 2010 une zone où le risque de conflit a particulièrement augmenté, et où sa concrétisation est parfois devenue une réalité quotidienne et durable. Dans ce périmètre sahélien, le présent article s’attachera au cas concret du Mali.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the importance of external shocks relative to internal characteristics in explaining variation of firm growth in developing countries. To do so, we compile firm-level panel data covering 12,562 firms operating in 72 low-income and middle-income countries. Our statistical analysis reveals that, on average, firm characteristics account for a half of difference in growth rate across firms. However, the importance of internal factors is halved when we exclude firms in the tails of the distribution (top performers and worst performers). On the other hand, external shocks account for less than one tenth of variance. The role of external shocks is, however, stronger for young firms and for firms operating in unstable environments. Finally, our findings suggest that the external context is more crucial for exit than for growth.

The aim of this paper is to assess the effectiveness on climate change mitigation of the climate-related commitments contained in PTAs. Because of a lack of availability of detailed data on PTAs, the academic literature on the role of PTAs with environmental provisions (PTAwEP) in global climate governance remains limited. A novel and detailed database identifying nearly 300 different types of environmental provisions from more than 680 PTAs since 1947 allows us to establish per country and per year the number of PTAs by distinguishing PTAs with climate-related provisions (PTAwCP) and PTAs with provisions related to other environmental issues. Using panel data covering 165 countries over the period 1995 to 2012, controlling for endogeneity issues, our main result shows that PTAwCP statistically reduce the level of CO2, CH4 and N2O. This suggests that governments seem to comply with the climate-related commitments they made in the PTAs, what potentially helps tackling global warming. Moreover, findings show that to be effective in terms of mitigating climate change, a PTAwEP should contain climate-related commitments.

The set of measures that affect international trade in goods and services defines trade policy. Trade policies affect trade costs. "Good" trade policy seeks to minimize trade costs. Traditionally trade policy was restricted to measures imposed at the border (tariffs, import quotas, export taxes, subsidies). It is now recognized that trade costs extend beyond border measures to include "behind-the-border" measures (logistics, regulations). Trade costs also depend on the quality of the institutional environment (completeness of contracts and enforcement). This primer proposes elements of a "good trade policy" for an African country where the context is country-specific but where common geographical characteristics, common policies, and common market failures often prevail. … /…

Several studies have demonstrated that corruption hinders efforts in enhancing public revenue and fiscal space through different channels. This paper assesses the effect of tax reform on fiscal space conditional on corruption control for a large panel of developing and emerging economies over 1990-2016. Using a threshold approach, our findings indicate that tax reform effect on fiscal space is not monotonic and depends on corruption control. Tax reform enhances fiscal space and tax revenue when corruption control is better. The results also suggest that heterogeneity across countries and time does matter. Individual estimates of elasticity of fiscal space to tax reform support evidence that countries that benefit most from tax reform are those that prove enough ability to control corruption.

Les grands sujets planétaires, dont le climat, la perte de la nature et la solidarité entre les êtres humains font parties, appellent des actions concertées à tous les niveaux, à l’échelle des problèmes. Cette transformation, qui nécessite une mobilisation de tous les acteurs, ne peut pas se réaliser du jour au lendemain. Elle passe par une période de transition, pour permettre aux acteurs de bâtir des modèles socio-économiques en phase avec cette vision. Alors que le multilatéralisme est à la peine pour relever ces défis, les Banques Publiques de Développement (BPD), qu’elles soient actives dans un périmètre local, national, continental ou international, peuvent coopérer et participer à la recherche de ces modèles économiques et sociaux porteurs d’avenirs.

International audience; À l’époque des indépendances en Afrique subsaharienne, l’un des crédos les mieux partagés par les dirigeants des nouveaux États et par les bailleurs de fonds bilatéraux et internationaux (désormais appelés Partenaires techniques et financiers ou PTF) qui se penchaient sur leur destin économique était la nécessité de banques de développement étatiques pour que les objectifs de croissance et de construction de systèmes économiques nationaux modernes puissent être atteints dans les meilleurs délais.

International audience

International audience; Cet ouvrage s’inscrit dans une longue recherche engagée à la Fondation pour les études et les recherches sur le développement international (Ferdi) sur la vulnérabilité et sur l’allocation de l’aide au développement. Depuis plus de dix ans la Fondation a soutenu l’idée que l’allocation devait tenir compte de la vulnérabilité structurelle des pays receveurs. Divers travaux ont été produits sur le sujet de nature théorique et politique et des progrès ont été enregistrés en la matière sur la scène internationale. L'ouvrage présente un cadre conceptuel pour prendre en compte les différentes formes de vulnérabilité dans le processus d’allocation. Il montre que le faire ne remet pas en cause le principe d’une allocation fondée sur la performance, principe auquel les bailleurs de fonds sont attachés, mais au contraire le rend plus crédible. Cet ouvrage dans sa structure actuelle était terminé au début de l’été 2019. Des raisons éditoriales en ont repoussé la publication jusqu’à ce temps de pandémie du coronavirus qui jette une lumière cruelle sur l’importance de l’attention portée aux problèmes de vulnérabilité dans la conception des politiques publiques.

The objective of this report is to provide an in-depth review of the digitization of public service provision in Sub-Saharan Africa in general and West Africa in particular by highlighting both the opportunities and the challenges faced by digital initiatives multiplication in the region.

Treaties implemented by Regional Organizations (ROs) among which the eight Regional Economic Communities (RECs) have piloted integration across the African continent. The recently created Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), effective since May 2019, is the latest effort along the roadmap started with the Abuja Treaty of 1994 and continued with the launch of ‘Agenda 2063’ on the 50th anniversary of the OAU. This primer has three objectives: take stock of progress at market integration and understand the causes of the African ‘proximity gap’; summarize and provide new evidence on the extent of integration, and; discuss challenges ahead.The ambitious objectives of the AfCFTA among highly diverse economies is suggestive of a trilemma: (i) solidarity (calls for special and differential treatment); (ii) build large markets (calls for the removal of all policy-imposed barriers to trade to reap economies of scale); (iii) ‘deep’ integration (calls for covering behind-the-border measures). The example of the negotiations for the Tripartite FTA illustrates the difficulties of accommodating differences in preferences in a group of 28 countries. This ambitious agenda in a setting of limited implementation capabilities raises the specter of capability traps.Lowering regional trade costs is key for a successful AfCFTA. Model-based calculations show that these costs have fallen over the last two decades, but not faster than elsewhere so that Africa has not improved its relative position. Estimates of the intensity of bilateral trade in parts and components are positively related to measures of ‘deep integration’, an indication of the importance of tackling ‘behind-the-border’ measures affecting trade, an objective of phase II of the AfCFTA. Estimates of the correlates of bilateral trade costs give support to measures promoting ‘deep’ integration. An outcome indicator of the thickness of borders based on changes in light-intensity along all major cross-border African roads shows that over the period 2000-13, the thickness of African borders has fallen.All RECs are lagging MERCOSUR and ASEAN in supply chain trade. Over the 1990-2015 period, participation has been limited to the downstream side (i.e. value-added exports enter mostly as inputs into exports of importing countries) with partners outside the region which is in contrast with MERCOSUR and ASEAN where all value chains have developed with regional partners. In the case of ASEAN, the share of trade involving partners outside the region has stayed constant over the 25 period while the share of Regional Value Chain (RVC) trade only involving RTA partners has more than doubled from 7 percent to 17 percent. By 2015, ASEAN’s RVC share was about 6 times higher than the RVC rate for SADC, the REC with the most RVC integration. This suggests that intra-regional trade costs have fallen in MERCOSUR and ASEAN but not across the RECs. In short, African countries still have to produce a complete product in order to enter a new product line.The review singles out two areas for reducing intra-regional trade costs: adopting simple rules of origin, i.e. rules that are business friendly rather than business owned (details in annex A3) and ‘taking seriously’ the Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). New estimates suggest that if the average time in customs for imports at the African Union level were to be reduced to the average time for exports, that is reduced by 49 hours, this would be equivalent to a reduction of 2.7% on tariffs in importing countries.The greatest challenge ahead is increasing the provision of Regional Public Goods (RPGs). These are under-provided across the continent. Because this primer is mostly about economic integration, we only cover evidence of RPGs in two areas: peace and security and cross-border infrastructure. For both, the evidence suggests that provision of these RPGs has been low. Greater provision would be conducive, if not essential, to the success of African regional integration.

International audience; Le premier semestre de 2020 s'achève en Afrique d'une manière dra-matique. Cette situation n'est pas inédite pour autant, tellement ce continent a désormais l'habitude d'être affecté par des chocs exté-rieurs mondiaux. Elle se révèle néanmoins d'une dangerosité, elle, sans précédent. Face à elle, la raison appellerait une réflexion fondée des enchainements logiques, sinon sereins, du moins froids. N'est-ce pas cette raison qui doit conduire l'élaboration de la politique pu-blique ? Cependant, ici, l'importance des enjeux humains, sociaux et politiques de ce que nous vivons et pourrions vivre génère des sentiments , qui ne peuvent, être, eux, que chargés. Suivre la pente de ces sentiments peut pourtant nous aider à retrouver le chemin de la pensée, et à identifier les motivations d'un rebond dans une nou-velle histoire qu'il faut appeler de nos voeux.