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Bu makale, Türkiye'nin 2050 reel GSYİH tahminlerini, pandemi öncesinde 2019'un sonuna kadar ve pandemi sırasında (2021'in sonuna kadar) tarihsel veriler ile spektral analiz kullanarak sunmaktadır. Makalenin amacı, 2020, 2021'de küresel ekonomiyi vuran ve 2022'ye yayılan Covid-19 pandemisinden kaynaklanan ekonomik şokun ardından Türkiye ekonomisinin direncini değerlendirmektir. Türkiye'nin 2050 tahminleri, Euro bölgesi (19 ülke)'nin 2050 GSYİH tahminleriyle kıyaslanmaktadır. Üç aylık Reel GSYİH büyüme oranları zaman serileri, tek boyutlu ayrık dalgacık analizi çerçevesinde, tahminler ve ayrıntılar olarak bilinen basit sinyallere ayrıştırılır. Sonuçlar, 2019'un ikinci çeyreği ile 2021'in dördüncü çeyreği arasında, Euro bölgesi ekonomisinin (19 ülke) üç aylık Reel GSYİH büyüme oranının (yıllıklandırılmış) çoğu zaman Türkiye'nin altında olduğunu ve Euro için ortalama %0,94 büyüme oranı olduğunu gösteriyor. Türkiye için bu oran %6.57'dir. Bu nedenle Türkiye, Covid-19 salgını sırasında Euro bölgesine göre daha dirençliydi. Sonuç olarak, yazarlar Türk ekonomik ve siyasi liderlerini son ekonomik gelişmeler ışığında Avrupa Birliği'ne katılmayı yeniden düşünmeye davet etmektedir., This paper presents Turkey’s 2050 real GDP forecasts using historical data before the pandemic up to the end of 2019 and during the pandemic (up to the end of 2021) using spectral analysis. The objective of the paper is to assess the resilience of Turkey’s economy following the economic shock from the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy in 2020, 2021 and extending in 2022. The Turkey 2050 forecasts are benchmarked to the 2050 GDP forecasts of the Euro Area (19 countries). The quarterly Real GDPs growth rates time series are decomposed into simple signals known as approximations and details within the framework of the one-dimensional discrete wavelet analysis. The simplified signals are then recomposed with Burg extension. The results show that between Q2 2019 and Q4 2021, the quarterly Real GDP growth rate (annualized) of the Euro area economy (19 countries) was most of the time below the one of Turkey with an average growth rate of 0.94% for the Euro area versus 6.57% for Turkey. Therefore, Turkey was more resilient during the Covid-19 pandemic than the Euro area. Using the 2022-2050 forecasts of both economies, by subtracting the 2022-2050 average Euro area quarterly growth rate forecast (annualized) obtained with the 1998-2021 data, +2%, by the one obtained with the 1998-2019 data, +1.03%, the difference is +0.97%, when with Turkey the difference is +2.30% [0.12% - (-2.17%)]. Thus, Turkey shows a higher resilience to the Covid-19 pandemic (+2.30%) than the Euro area (+0.97%) based on 2022-2050 forecasts. However, the authors pointed out that the average of the 2022-2050 quarterly (annualized) growth rate forecast of the Euro area is expected to be +2.00% with the 1998-2021 data whereas it is expected to be only +0.12% for Turkey. In conclusion, the authors invite Turkish economic and political leaders to reconsider joining the European Union in the light of recent economic developments.

Bu çalışma, Afganistan İslam Bankası örneği ile Afganistan'a odaklanarak az gelişmiş ülkelerde İslami bankacılığın zorluklarını araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada ele alınan örneklem, 1) İslami bankacılığın gelişmekte olan ve az gelişmiş ülkelerdeki etkilerini, 2) dinin ve İslami kavramın müşteri çekmekteki rolü ve 3) İslami bankacılık yoluyla müşteri kitlesini genişletme stratejileri hakkında bilgi edinme hedefleri takip edilerek incelenmektedir. Özel tam teşekküllü Afganistan İslam Bankası'nın 24 çalışanı ve yöneticilerinden oluşan bir örneklemden kendi geliştirdiği bir anket aracılığıyla veri toplanmıştır. İslami bankacılığın örnek olay incelemeleri ve başarı öyküleri incelendiğinde, İslami bankacılıkla ilgili yenilikçi pazarlama ve bilinçlendirme kampanyalarının daha fazla müşteri çekmede büyük önem taşıdığı tespit edilmiştir. Pazarlama stratejilerinin rafine edilmesi anket aracılığıyla doğrulanmıştır. İslami bankalar geleneksel bankacılıktan pazar payı elde etmek için din ve güven kavramları pazarlama argümanları olarak yeterli görünmediği için daha yenilikçi ürünlerle kendilerini farklılaştırabilirler. Bu çalışma, az ve fazla gelişmiş ülkelerdeki İslami bankalara, belirlenen zorluklarla başa çıkmak ve geleneksel bankalardan pazar payı kazanmak için çözümler getirebilir., This paper explores the challenges of Islamic banking in least developed countries, focusing on Afghanistan with the example of the Islamic Bank of Afghanistan, while pursuing the objectives of finding out about 1) the effects of Islamic banking in emerging and least developed countries, 2) the role of religion and Islamic concept to attract customers, and 3) the strategies to expand clientele through Islamic banking. A self-developed questionnaire was collected from a sample of 24 employees and managers of the exclusive fully-fledged Islamic Bank of Afghanistan. Examining case studies and success stories of Islamic banking, it has been found that innovative marketing and awareness campaigns about Islamic banking had significant importance in attracting more customers. Refining marketing strategies has been substantiated through the survey. In order to gain market share from conventional banking, Islamic banks could differentiate themselves with more innovative products because the concepts of religion and trust do not appear to be sufficient as marketing arguments. The paper may bring solutions to Islamic banks in least and more developed countries to deal with identified challenges and to gain market share from conventional banks.

L’Europe occidentale connaît durant la seconde moitié du troisième millénaire un développement important de la production métallurgique. À Saint-Véran, dans le Haut-Queyras (Hautes-Alpes), l’exploitation et la transformation des ressources cuprifères sont attestées entre 2450 et 1950 avant notre ère. La mine de la « tranchée des Anciens » a ainsi permis l’extraction de près de 2 000 tonnes de minerais, la bornite. Le site de la Cabane des Clausis à Saint-Véran constituait jusqu’alors la principale zone de traitement pyrométallurgique associée. La présente communication se propose de rendre compte des sondages récents réalisés dans le vallon du Longet, à Molines-en-Queyras, qui montrent l’existence d’une petite zone métallurgique dont la datation est comprise entre le xxiiie et le xxe s. avant notre ère et où, pour la première fois au sein du complexe de Saint-Véran, la preuve directe de l’utilisation de fours bâtis a pu être établie. La grande similarité des scories mises au jour sur le site avec celles de la Cabane des Clausis renvoie à des procédés métallurgiques analogues, témoins d’innovations récentes accompagnant la mise en place d’une production de masse dont le complexe minier et métallurgique est alors le siège. The metallurgical production increases dramatically in Western Europe during the second half of the third millenium BC. At Saint Véran in the Haut Queyras, Hautes-Alpes, copper mining and smelting is testified between 2450 et 1950 BC, with some 2000 t of copper ore, namely bornite, having been extracted from the main mine known to date, the “tranchée des Anciens”. Until recently, the main smelting workshop associated to the mine was the site called La cabane des Clausis. The present paper aims at reporting the recent excavations carried out in the Vallon du Longet at Molines-en-Queyras, which have put into light a small metallurgical area dated between the 23rd and the 20th century BC. There, a vitrified rock fragment constitutes the first direct evidence of the use of smelting furnace in the district. The unearthed metallurgical slags are very similar to those known so far at Saint Véran, they reveal innovative processes promoting the set up of copper mass-production.

Austria is one of the wealthiest and most stable European Union Member States. With spectral analysis this paper attempts to forecast economic indicators of the Austrian economy up to 2030 to provide a clearer picture of its future economy. The applied spectral analysis reveals hidden periodicities in the studied country’s economic data which are to be associated with cyclical behaviour or recurring processes in economic time series. The 2018-2030 period forecasts of Austria’s real GDP, government budget deficit or surplus in current prices, current account balance and total population respectively are all bullish, including unemployment rate doomed to expand at an annual rate of 0.58% until 2030. https://doi.org/10.15458/ebr97

Siliceous raw materials played a key role in the technological organization of Taltal's archaic populations, as witnessed by its ubiquity in the local archaeological sites. Nevertheless, crucial aspects like their sources and the strategies deployed for t

Date de l'opération : 2007 (FP) Inventeur(s) : Rostan Pierre (BEN) Les prospections menées par Pierre Rostan depuis une décennie dans les Alpes du Sud françaises, augmentées depuis trois ans par des sondages et une extension des recherches dans les Alpes du Nord, renouvellent entièrement la question de l’exploitation du quartz hyalin. Il apparaît que l’Oisans constitue une région d’extraction intense, avec environ 200 points documentés. Les quantités de cristaux extraits autorisent à parler d...

Identifiant de l'opération archéologique : 8357 Date de l'opération : 2007 (FP) Inventeur(s) : Rostan Pierre (AUT) L’usage du quartz hyalin dans les Alpes et dans les Préalpes est attesté depuis l’Azilien jusqu’au Néolithique moyen : les cristaux sont débités selon diverses modalités pour obtenir des éclats et des lames dont le tranchant n’a rien à envier au silex. Le recours à ce matériau est loin d’être anecdotique puisque dans certaines régions proches des sources, tel le Valais, la propor...