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Forests in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have historically been simulated as area-averaged plant functional types in each gridcell instead of representing communities of trees of different sizes and ages (demography). Just as the behaviour of a tree differs according to its ontogeny, so the behaviour of forests is known to differ depending on their demography. Accurately simulating demography is therefore key in order to address questions on afforestation and management strategies, as well as assessments of resilience of forests to disturbances such as drought and fire or diversity changes after a disturbance. Ultimately, demography determines the overall forest biomass in natural forests and is a key arbiter of growth and mortality rates. DGVMs are now able to simulate size and age structure of the trees in forests. However, these models have so far not been benchmarked alongside each other.We evaluate 6 DGVMs (BiomeE, CABLE-POP, FATES, LPJ-GUESS, JULES-RED, ORCHIDEE) against observations on regrowth dynamics as well as natural forests at boreal, temperate and tropical sites. We examine whether the models capture observed regrowth dynamics after disturbance, well-known stand size structure and well-established processes such as self-thinning. We outline the planned route forward towards a standardised international benchmarking framework for demographic DGVMs.

Drought impacts on vegetation function have been widely assessed globally but our understanding of the global patterns of drought recovery and its mechanistic underpinnings is comparatively less understood. The quantification of vegetation resilience to drought has been mostly based on the analysis of time series of remotely-sensed vegetation indices, tree-ring data or ecosystem-level fluxes. While useful, these approaches have not provided a mechanistic link between resilience patterns and post-drought effects on plant hydraulics because they lack sufficient temporal and spatial resolution. Resilience quantified from tree-level sap flow can provide these mechanistic insights on post-drought effects but its estimation using classical resilience metrics requires defining a reference sap flow, unaffected by drought. Here, we compare two different approaches to estimate tree water use resilience to soil drought for >500 drought events using global, tree-level sap flow data in the SAPFLUXNET database (Poyatos et al. 2021). For both approaches, soil droughts were defined using the same criteria based on soil relative extractable water (REW), ensuring a minimum intensity and duration (10 days) and the presence of well-defined pre- and post-drought periods with REW values sustainedly above the threshold. In the first approach, we apply classical resilience metrics obtained from the comparison of pre- and post-drought sap flow. We show that water use resilience is related to soil drought characteristics such as intensity and duration and also to atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. In the second approach, we present a model-based resilience framework in which actual sap flow during and after a drought is compared against a reference sap flow modelled using a random forest regression with hydrometeorological drivers, but excluding potential drought legacy effects. This latter approach is tested in two Mediterranean forests in SAPFLUXNET where additional data on tree water status (leaf water potentials or tree water deficit derived from automatic dendrometry) are also available. We show that the model-based resilience framework applied to sap flow data is a promising avenue to better understand the global patterns of drought recovery and the underlying hydraulic mechanisms.Poyatos, R. et al.: Global transpiration data from sap flow measurements: the SAPFLUXNET database, Earth System Science Data, 13, 2607–2649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2607-2021, 2021.

We present a representation of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the vegetation demography model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), within the Energy Exascale Earth System (E3SM) land model. This representation is modular, and designed to allow testing of multiple hypothetical approaches for carbon-nutrient coupling in plants. The model tracks nutrient uptake, losses via turnover from both live plants and mortality into soil decomposition, and allocation during tissue growth for a large number of size- and functional-type-resolved plant cohorts within a time-since-disturbance-resolved ecosystem. Root uptake is governed by fine root biomass, and plants vary in their fine root carbon allocation in order to balance carbon and nutrient limitations to growth. We test the sensitivity of the model to a wide range of parameter variations and structural representations, and in the context of observations at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. A key model prediction is that plants in the high-light-availability canopy positions allocate more carbon to fine roots than plants in low-light understory environments, given the widely different carbon versus nutrient constraints of these two niches within a given ecosystem. This model provides a basis for exploring carbon-nutrient coupling with vegetation demography within Earth System Models (ESMs).

Extreme droughts are a major determinant of ecosystem disturbance, which impact plant communities and feed back to climate change through changes in plant functioning. However, the complex relationships between above- and belowground plant hydraulic traits, and their role in governing plant responses to drought, are not fully understood. In this study, we use a plant hydraulics model, FATES-Hydro, to investigate ecosystem responses to the 2012–2015 California drought, in comparison with observations, for a site in the southern Sierra Nevada that experienced widespread tree mortality during this drought. We conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore how different plant water sourcing and hydraulic strategies lead to differential responses during normal and drought conditions. The analysis shows that: 1) deep roots that sustain productivity through the dry season are needed for the model to capture observed seasonal cycles of ET and GPP in normal years, and that deep-rooted strategies are nonetheless subject to large reductions in ET and GPP when the deep soil reservoir is depleted during extreme droughts, in agreement with observations. 2) risky stomatal strategies lead to greater productivity during normal years as compared to safer stomatal control, but lead to high risk of xylem embolism during the 2012–2015 drought. 3) for a given stand density, the stomatal and xylem traits have a stronger impact on plant water status than on ecosystem level fluxes. Our study reveals the importance of resolving plant water sourcing strategies in order to represent drought impacts on plants, and consequent feedbacks, in models.

Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade-off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

Deep-water access is arguably the most effective, but under-studied, mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep-water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep-water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data-model approach. We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics (1990-2015) to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole-soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water-access depths. Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35years (1981-2015) among evergreen species. Species exposure to water stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for water stress-related mortality risk through deep-water access. The role of deep-water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically-vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

As temperatures decrease in autumn, vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing. This process, known as hardening, results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiate modifications of cell membrane composition and the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, anti-freeze proteins reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. To represent the responses of vegetation to climate change, land surface schemes increasingly employ ‘hydrodynamic’ models that represent the explicit fluxes of water from soil and through plants. The functioning of such schemes under frozen soil conditions, however, is poorly understood. Nonetheless, hydraulic processes are of major importance in the dynamics of these systems, which can suffer from e.g. winter ‘frost drought’ events. In this study, we implement a scheme that represents hardening into CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro. FATES-Hydro is a plant hydrodynamics module in FATES, a cohort model of vegetation physiology, growth and dynamics hosted in CLM5.0. We find that, in frozen systems, it is necessary to introduce reductions in plant water loss associated with hardening to prevent winter desiccation. This work makes it possible to use CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change.

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

Vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing when temperatures decrease in autumn. This process is known as hardening, and results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiates the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, these changes reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. In this study, we implemented a hardening and frost mortality scheme into CTSM5.0-FATES-Hydro, and evaluate how these modifications impact plant hydraulics and vegetation growth. Our work shows that the hydraulic modifications prescribed by the hardening scheme are necessary to model realistic vegetation growth in cold climates, in contrast to the default model that simulates almost nonexistent and declining vegetation due to abnormally large water loss through the roots. The frost mortality scheme also simulates damage from frost events when temperatures drop below the hardiness level of plants, in contrast to the default model where frost is described by a constant PFT temperature threshold. This work makes it possible to use CTSM5-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost and droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change.

Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

Most tree species predominantly associate with a single type of mycorrhizal fungi, which can differentially affect plant nutrient acquisition and biogeochemical cycling. Uncertainties in mycorrhizal distributions are non-trivial, and current estimates disagree in up to 50% over 40% of the land area, including tropical forests. Remote sensing capabilities for mycorrhizal detection show promise for refining these estimates further. Here, we address for the first time the impact of mycorrhizal distributions on global carbon and nutrient cycling. Using the state-of-the-art carbon-nitrogen economics within the Community Land Model version 5, we found Net Primary Productivity (NPP) increased throughout the 21st century by 20%; however, as soil nitrogen has progressively become limiting, the costs to NPP for nitrogen acquisition-that is, to mycorrhizae-have increased at a faster rate by 60%. This suggests that nutrient acquisition will increasingly demand a higher portion of assimilated carbon to support the same productivity. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Terrestrial Ecosystem Science program United States Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-SC0008317, DE-SC0016188]; NASA IDS program

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions. Terrestrial primary productivity will increase with CO2 fertilization, but water limitation will decrease this positive effect. Analyses of Earth system model projections show that extreme droughts will have a much stronger impact on future productivity than mild and moderate droughts.

Future projections of land carbon uptake in Earth System Models are affected by land surface model responses to both CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. The Community Land Model, Version 5 (CLM5), contains a suite of modifications to carbon and nitrogen cycle representation. Globally, the CLM5 has a larger CO2 response and smaller nitrogen response than its predecessors. To improve our understanding of the controls over the fertilization responses of the new model, we assess sensitivity to eight parameters pertinent to the cycling of carbon and nitrogen by vegetation, both under present‐day conditions and with CO2 and nitrogen fertilization. The impact of fertilization varies with both model parameters and with the balance of limiting factors (water, temperature, nutrients, and light) in the pre‐fertilization model state. The model parameters that impact the pre‐fertilization state are in general not the same as those that control fertilization responses, meaning that goodness of fit to present‐day conditions does not necessarily imply a constraint on future transient projections. Where pre‐fertilization state has low leaf area, fertilization‐induced increases in leaf production amplify the model response to the initial fertilization via further increases in photosynthesis. Model responses to CO2 and N fertilization are strongly impacted by how much plant communities can increase their rates of nitrogen fixation and also directly affected by costs of N extraction from soil and stoichiometric flexibility. Illustration of how parametric flexibility impacts model outputs should help inform the interpretation of carbon‐climate feedbacks estimated by in fully coupled Earth system model simulations.

Studies of emergent constraints have frequently proposed that a single metric alone can constrain future responses of the Earth system to anthropogenic emissions. The prevalence of this thinking has led to literature and messaging which is sometimes confusing to policymakers, with a series of studies over the last decade making confident, yet contradictory, claims on the probability bounds of key climate variables. Here, we illustrate that emergent constraints are more likely to occur where the variance across an ensemble of climate models of both observable and future climate arises from common structural assumptions and few degrees of freedom. Such cases are likely to occur when processes are represented in a common, oversimplified fashion throughout the ensemble, about which we have the least confidence in performance out of sample. We consider these issues in the context of a number of published constraints, and argue that the application of emergent constraints alone to estimate uncertainties in unknown climate responses can potentially lead to bias and overconfidence in constrained projections. Together with statistical robustness and plausibility of mechanism, assessments of climate responses must include multiple lines of evidence to identify biases that arise from common oversimplified modeling assumptions which impact both present and future climate simulations in order to mitigate against the influence of common structural biases.

The response of tropical ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) remains a critical uncertainty in projections of future climate. Here, we investigate how leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO2 alters projections of tropical forest competitive dynamics and functioning. We use vegetation demographic model simulations to quantify how plasticity in leaf mass per area and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio alter the responses of carbon uptake, evapotranspiration, and competitive ability to a doubling of CO2 in a tropical forest. Observationally constrained leaf trait plasticity in response to CO2 fertilization reduces the degree to which tropical tree carbon uptake is affected by a doubling of CO2 (up to −14.7% as compared to a case with no plasticity; 95% confidence interval [CI95%] −14.4 to −15.0). It also diminishes evapotranspiration (up to −7.0%, CI95% −6.4 to −7.7), and lowers competitive ability in comparison to a tree with no plasticity. Consideration of leaf trait plasticity to elevated CO2 lowers tropical ecosystem carbon uptake and evapotranspirative cooling in the absence of changes in plant-type abundance. However, “plastic” responses to high CO2 which maintain higher levels of plant productivity, many of which fall outside of the observed range of response, are potentially more competitively advantageous, thus, including changes in plant type abundance may mitigate these decreases in ecosystem functioning. Models that explicitly represent competition between plants with alternative leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO2 are needed to capture these influences on tropical forest functioning and large-scale climate.

Most tree species predominantly associate with a single type of mycorrhizal fungi. Because of the principle differences in mycorrhizal associations, they can differentially affect plant nutrient ac...

Mechanistic photosynthesis models are at the heart of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) simulating the daily, monthly, annual and decadal rhythms of carbon assimilation (A). These models are founded on robust mathematical hypotheses that describe how A responds to changes in light and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Two predominant photosynthesis models are in common usage: Farquhar (FvCB) and Collatz (CBGB). However, a detailed quantitative comparison of these two models has never been undertaken. In this study, we unify the FvCB and CBGB models to a common parameter set and use novel multi-hypothesis methods (that account for both hypothesis and parameter variability) for process-level sensitivity analysis. These models represent three key biological processes: carboxylation, electron transport, triose phosphate use (TPU) and an additional model process: limiting-rate selection. Each of the four processes comprises 1-3 alternative hypotheses giving 12 possible individual models with a total of 14 parameters. To broaden inference, TBM simulations were run and novel, high-resolution photosynthesis measurements were made. We show that parameters associated with carboxylation are the most influential parameters but also reveal the surprising and marked dominance of the limiting-rate selection process (accounting for 57% of the variation in A vs. 22% for carboxylation). The limiting-rate selection assumption proposed by CBGB smooths the transition between limiting rates and always reduces A below the minimum of all potentially limiting rates, by up to 25%, effectively imposing a fourth limitation on A. Evaluation of the CBGB smoothing function in three TBMs demonstrated a reduction in global A by 4%-10%, equivalent to 50%-160% of current annual fossil fuel emissions. This analysis reveals a surprising and previously unquantified influence of a process that has been integral to many TBMs for decades, highlighting the value of multi-hypothesis methods.

Author(s): Fisher, RA; Koven, CD | Abstract: Land surface models (LSMs) are a vital tool for understanding, projecting, and predicting the dynamics of the land surface and its role within the Earth system, under global change. Driven by the need to address a set of key questions, LSMs have grown in complexity from simplified representations of land surface biophysics to encompass a broad set of interrelated processes spanning the disciplines of biophysics, biogeochemistry, hydrology, ecosystem ecology, community ecology, human management, and societal impacts. This vast scope and complexity, while warranted by the problems LSMs are designed to solve, has led to enormous challenges in understanding and attributing differences between LSM predictions. Meanwhile, the wide range of spatial scales that govern land surface heterogeneity, and the broad spectrum of timescales in land surface dynamics, create challenges in tractably representing processes in LSMs. We identify three “grand challenges” in the development and use of LSMs, based around these issues: managing process complexity, representing land surface heterogeneity, and understanding parametric dynamics across the broad set of problems asked of LSMs in a changing world. In this review, we discuss progress that has been made, as well as promising directions forward, for each of these challenges.

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is a key contributor to sustaining the terrestrial carbon cycle, providing nitrogen input that plants require. This is particularly salient for projections of carbon uptake under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, which may allow for so-called ‘carbon dioxide fertilisation’ if other plant requirements, such as nitrogen, do not prevent increases in productivity. The amount, processes, and global distribution of BNF is highly disputed and consequently land surface models represent it in varying ways. Looking at the latest generation of CMIP6 earth system models with terrestrial nitrogen cycles, we consider their performance with regard to BNF. We assess models against a new comprehensive meta-analysis of BNF field measurements that gives a global range and site-specific values. We find that compared to the wide range of upscaled observations, the models still have a larger range, with under and overestimates.

Author(s): Holm, JA; Knox, RG; Zhu, Q; Fisher, RA; Koven, CD; Nogueira Lima, AJ; Riley, WJ; Longo, M; Negron-Juarez, RI; de Araujo, AC; Kueppers, LM; Moorcroft, PR; Higuchi, N; Chambers, JQ | Abstract: There is large uncertainty whether Amazon forests will remain a carbon sink as atmospheric CO2 increases. Hence, we simulated an old-growth tropical forest using six versions of four terrestrial models differing in scale of vegetation structure and representation of biogeochemical (BGC) cycling, all driven with CO2 forcing from the preindustrial period to 2100. The models were benchmarked against tree inventory and eddy covariance data from a Brazilian site for present-day predictions. All models predicted positive vegetation growth that outpaced mortality, leading to continual increases in present-day biomass accumulation. Notably, the two vegetation demographic models (VDMs) (ED2 and ELM-FATES) always predicted positive stem diameter growth in all size classes. The field data, however, indicated that a quarter of canopy trees didn't grow over the 15-year period, and while high interannual variation existed, biomass change was near neutral. With a doubling of CO2, three of the four models predicted an appreciable biomass sink (0.77 to 1.24 Mg ha−1 year−1). ELMv1-ECA, the only model used here that includes phosphorus constraints, predicted the lowest biomass sink relative to initial biomass stocks (+21%), lower than the other BGC model, CLM5 (+48%). Models projections differed primarily through variations in nutrient constraints, then carbon allocation, initial biomass, and density-dependent mortality. The VDM's performance was similar or better than the BGC models run in carbon-only mode, suggesting that nutrient competition in VDMs will improve predictions. We demonstrate that VDMs are comparable to nondemographic (i.e., “big-leaf”) models but also include finer scale demography and competition that can be evaluated against field observations.

To improve climate resilience for extreme fire events, researchers need to translate modelling uncertainties into useful guidance and be wary of overconfidence. If Earth system models do not capture the severity of recent Australian wildfires, development is urgently needed to assess whether we are underestimating fire risk.

The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought-induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). We evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2-hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light- and water-use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter-annual variation, El Nino-related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2-hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2-hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry-season scenario. These results support the hypothesis that inter-annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline.

Forest disturbance and regrowth are key processes in forest dynamics but detailed information of these processes is difficult to obtain in remote forests as the Amazon. We used chronosequences of Landsat satellite imagery to determine the sensitivity of surface reflectance from all spectral bands to windthrow, clearcutting, and burning and their successional pathways of forest regrowth in the Central Amazon. We also assess whether the forest demography model Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM), ELM-FATES, accurately represents the changes for windthrow and clearcut. The results show that all spectral bands from Landsat satellite were sensitive to the disturbances but after 3 to 6 years only the Near Infrared (NIR) band had significant changes associated with the successional pathways of forest regrowth for all the disturbances considered. In general, the NIR decreased immediately after disturbance, increased to maximum values with the establishment of pioneers and early-successional tree species, and then decreased slowly and almost linearly to pre-disturbance conditions with the dynamics of forest succession. Statistical methods predict that NIR will return to pre-disturbance values in about 39 years (consistent with observational data of biomass regrowth following windthrows), and 36 and 56 years for clearcut and burning. The NIR captured the observed successional pathways of forest regrowth after clearcut and burning that diverge through time. ELM-FATES predicted higher peaks of initial forest responses (e.g., biomass, stem density) after clearcuts than after windthrows, similar to the changes in NIR. However, ELM-FATES predicted a faster recovery of forest structure and canopy-coverage back to pre-disturbance conditions for windthrows compared to clearcuts. The similarity of ELM-FATES predictions of regrowth patterns after windthrow and clearcut to those of the NIR results suggest that the dynamics of forest regrowth for these disturbances are represented with appropriate fidelity within ELM-FATES and useful as a benchmarking tool.

Land models are often used to simulate terrestrial responses to future environmental changes, but these models are not commonly evaluated with data from experimental manipulations. Results from experimental manipulations can identify and evaluate model assumptions that are consistent with appropriate ecosystem responses to future environmental change. We conducted simulations using three coupled carbon‐nitrogen versions of the Community Land Model (CLM, versions 4, 4.5, and—the newly developed—5), and compared the simulated response to nitrogen (N) and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment with meta‐analyses of observations from similar experimental manipulations. In control simulations, successive versions of CLM showed a poleward increase in gross primary productivity and an overall bias reduction, compared to FLUXNET‐MTE observations. Simulations with N and CO2 enrichment demonstrate that CLM transitioned from a model that exhibited strong nitrogen limitation of the terrestrial carbon cycle (CLM4) to a model that showed greater responsiveness to elevated concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere (CLM5). Overall, CLM5 simulations showed better agreement with observed ecosystem responses to experimental N and CO2 enrichment than previous versions of the model. These simulations also exposed shortcomings in structural assumptions and parameterizations. Specifically, no version of CLM captures changes in plant physiology, allocation, and nutrient uptake that are likely important aspects of terrestrial ecosystems' responses to environmental change. These highlight priority areas that should be addressed in future model developments. Moving forward, incorporating results from experimental manipulations into model benchmarking tools that are used to evaluate model performance will help increase confidence in terrestrial carbon cycle projections., Key Points Experimental manipulations provide critical insights into ecosystem responses to environmental change that can evaluate land modelsParametric and structural changes to the Community Land Model version 5 improve the simulated response to environmental changeModel assumptions related to nutrient acquisition strategies and trade‐offs between carbon and nitrogen limitation deserve further attention

The terrestrial biosphere regulates climate through carbon, water, and energy exchanges with the atmosphere. Land-surface models estimate plant transpiration, which is actively regulated by stomatal pores, and provide projections essential for understanding Earth's carbon and water resources. Empirical evidence from 204 species suggests that significant amounts of water are lost through leaves at night, though land-surface models typically reduce stomatal conductance to nearly zero at night. Here, we test the sensitivity of carbon and water budgets in a global land-surface model, the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, to three different methods of incorporating observed nighttime stomatal conductance values. We find that our modifications increase transpiration by up to 5 % globally, reduce modeled available soil moisture by up to 50 % in semi-arid regions, and increase the importance of the land surface in modulating energy fluxes. Carbon gain declines by up to ∼ 4 % globally and > 25 % in semi-arid regions. We advocate for realistic constraints of minimum stomatal conductance in future climate simulations, and widespread field observations to improve parameterizations.

A pivotal question in global change science is what role the biosphere plays in ameliorating the rate of climate change and what risks exist that there may be possible tipping points in the Earth System where the biosphere switches from being a brake to an accelerator of climate change [1]. Of the potential major global tipping points, the fate of the tropical forests is among the most important and iconic, with some studies suggesting that climate change could lead to extensive dieback of tropical forests (and the Amazon forest in particular), resulting in further carbon release, major loss of biodiversity, drying of regional climates and thereby further forest dieback and intensification of global warming [2]. However, these scenarios have been the subject of much debate, with questions about whether existing biosphere models sufficiently capture the consequences for key ecological processes, which are dependent on complex system attributes such as species' functional diversity and demography, and on factors such as forest fire that are poorly described [3]. One issue of particular concern is the interannual variability of the tropical land carbon cycle, in particular during El Nino events. During such events, a pool of warm surface water migrates across from the Western Pacific to the Central and Eastern Pacific, disrupting global atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the Walker circulation and causing warming of the tropics in particular. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest mode of interannual variability both in the climate system [4] and in the global carbon cycle [5]. It has long been noted that El Nino events correlate with a surge in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (e.g. [6]). Global studies of the spatial pattern of carbon dioxide concentration tend …

Land-use change has a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and its effect is particularly pronounced in tropical regions. Uncertainties exist in the prediction of future land-use change impacts on these fluxes by land surface models due to scarcity of suitable measured data for parametrization and poor representation of key biogeochemical processes associated with tropical vegetation types. Rubber plantations (Havea brasilliensis) are a crucial land-use type across tropical landscapes that has greatly expanded in recent decades. Here, we first synthesize the relevant data for describing the biogeochemical processes of rubber from our past measurement campaigns in Jambi province, Indonesia. We then use these data-sets to develop a rubber plant functional type (PFT) for the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Field measured data from small-holder plantations on leaf litterfall, soil respiration, latex harvest, leaf area index, transpiration, net primary productivity, and above-ground and fine root biomass were used to develop and calibrate a new PFT-based model (CLM4.5-rubber). CLM-rubber predictions adequately captured the annual net primary productivity and above-ground biomass as well as the seasonal dynamics of leaf litterfall, soil respiration, soil moisture and leaf area index. All of the predicted water fluxes of CLM-rubber were very similar to a site-specific calibrated soil water model. Including temporal variations in leaf life span enabled CLM-rubber to better capture the seasonality of leaf litterfall. Increased sensitivity of stomata to soil water stress and the enhancement of growth and maintenance respiration of fine roots in response to soil nutrient limitation enabled CLM-rubber to capture the magnitude of transpiration and leaf area index. Since CLM-rubber predicted reasonably well the carbon and water use, we think that the current model can be used for larger-scale simulations within Jambi province because more than 99 % of the rubber plantations are smallholder owned in Jambi province and have low soil fertility.

Enquanto a maioria dos projetos climáticos globais estações secas e secas mais longas sobre a Amazônia sob Níveis de CO2, grandes incertezas cercam a resposta da vegetação a secas persistentes tanto no presente como no futuro climas. Propomos uma avaliação detalhada da capacidade de o ISBACC (Interação Solo-Biosfera-Atmosfera Carbono Ciclo) modelo de superfície terrestre para capturar os efeitos da orçamentos de água e carbono, comparando fluxos e estoques em dois experimentos recentes de exclusão throughfall (TFE) realizados na Amazônia. Também exploramos a sensibilidade do modelo diferentes funções de estresse hídrico (FSMs) e aumento idealizado na concentração de CO2 e / ou temperatura. Apesar de uma simulação razoável de umidade do solo, o ISBACC luta para simular corretamente a resposta da vegetação TFE cuja amplitude e temporização é altamente sensível ao FSM. Sob maiores concentrações de CO2, o aumento da utilização de água eficiência (WUE) mitiga a sensibilidade do ISBACC ao seca. Enquanto uma das formulações propostas do FSM melhora a resposta da maioria dos fluxos ISBACC, exceto a respiração, uma parametrização da mortalidade de árvores induzida pela seca é faltando uma estimativa precisa da resposta da vegetação. Além disso, uma melhor compreensão mecanicista das respostas da floresta à seca sob um clima mais quente e maior CO2 a concentração é claramente necessária. While a majority of global climate models project drier and longer dry seasons over the Amazon under higher CO2 levels, large uncertainties surround the response of vegetation to persistent droughts in both present-day and future climates. We propose a detailed evaluation of the ability of the ISBACC (Interaction Soil–Biosphere–Atmosphere Carbon Cycle) land surface model to capture drought effects on both water and carbon budgets, comparing fluxes and stocks at two recent throughfall exclusion (TFE) experiments performed in the Amazon. We also explore the model sensitivity to different water stress functions (WSFs) and to an idealized increase in CO2 concentration and/or temperature. In spite of a reasonable soil moisture simulation, ISBACC struggles to correctly simulate the vegetation response to TFE whose amplitude and timing is highly sensitive to the WSF. Under higher CO2 concentrations, the increased wateruse efficiency (WUE) mitigates the sensitivity of ISBACC to drought. While one of the proposed WSF formulations improves the response of most ISBACC fluxes, except respiration, a parameterization of drought-induced tree mortality is missing for an accurate estimate of the vegetation response. Also, a better mechanistic understanding of the forest responses to drought under a warmer climate and higher CO2 concentration is clearly needed.

We describe an implementation of the Ecosystem Demography (ED) concept in the Community Land Model. The structure of CLM(ED) and the physiological and structural modifications applied to the CLM are presented. A major motivation of this development is to allow the prediction of biome boundaries directly from plant physiological traits via their competitive interactions. Here we investigate the performance of the model for an example biome boundary in eastern North America. We explore the sensitivity of the predicted biome boundaries and ecosystem properties to the variation of leaf properties using the parameter space defined by the GLOPNET global leaf trait database. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of four sequential alterations to the structural assumptions in the model governing the relative carbon economy of deciduous and evergreen plants. The default assumption is that the costs and benefits of deciduous vs. evergreen leaf strategies, in terms of carbon assimilation and expenditure, can reproduce the geographical structure of biome boundaries and ecosystem functioning. We find some support for this assumption, but only under particular combinations of model traits and structural assumptions. Many questions remain regarding the preferred methods for deployment of plant trait information in land surface models. In some cases, plant traits might best be closely linked to each other, but we also find support for direct linkages to environmental conditions. We advocate intensified study of the costs and benefits of plant life history strategies in different environments and the increased use of parametric and structural ensembles in the development and analysis of complex vegetation models.

For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.