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It is challenging to communicate uncertainty for high-impact weather events to the public and decision-makers. As a result, there is an increased emphasis and training within the National Weather Service (NWS) for “impact-based decision support.” A Collaborative Science, Technology, And Research (CSTAR) project led by Stony Brook University (SBU) in collaboration with the Alan Alda Center for Communicating Science, several NWS forecast offices, and NWS operational centers held two workshops at SBU on effective forecast communication of probabilistic information for high-impact weather. Trainers in two 1.5-day workshops helped 15–20 forecasters learn to distill their messages, engage audiences, and more effectively communicate risk and uncertainty to decision-makers, media, and the general public. The novel aspect of the first workshop focused on using improvisational techniques to connect with audiences along with exercises to improve communication skills using short, clear, conversational statements. The same forecasters participated in the second workshop, which focused on matching messages to intended audiences and stakeholder interaction. Using a recent high-impact weather event, representatives in emergency management, TV media, departments of transportation, and emergency services provided feedback on the forecaster oral presentations (2–3 min) and a visual slide. This article describes our innovative workshop approach, illustrates some of the techniques used, and highlights participant feedback.

A number of field experiments and subsequent studies in the 1970s and 1980s have led to the belief that radiative processes play a more significant role in the evolution of tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSS) than was once thought. In this study, an interactive radiative transfer scheme is incorporated into a two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University-NCAR Mesoscale Model to simulate the evolution of these systems within a large-scale environment under a diurnally varying radiative influence. The radiative effects are examined in terms of the net rainfall, diurnal phasing, and the vertical distribution of diabatic heating within the systems. In addition, three current radiative forcing hypotheses are addressed. Simulations of individual MCSs with radiation produced more rainfall than those without it. While runs with forced background meant all peaked after the same elapsed time regardless of diurnal initialization time, the peak rainfall rates that occurred at night we...

We examined the test-retest reliability of visual acuity in 18 children referred to the Hospital Eye Service with reduced vision. Unaided distance acuities were recorded, using logarithmically scaled letter charts, on two occasions separated by an interval of one week during which no clinical intervention took place. Coefficients of repeatability were found to be ± 0.25 and ± 0.21 log units in left and right eyes, respectively. A further analysis of 14 subjects' data each of whom had one eye with consistently poorer acuity in both test sessions yielded coefficients of repeatability of ± 0.15 and ± 0.22 log units in, respectively, the better and poorer eyes. The reliability of visual acuity recorded in the better eye closely approximates to that previously found in normal adults, whilst that of the poorer eye appears more comparable to that of adult clinical populations.

AIMS/BACKGROUND To examine the relative contributions of non-specific (for example, spectacle correction) and specific (that is, occlusion therapy) treatment effects on children with ametropic amblyopia. To assess the importance and practicality of objectively confirming the prescribed occlusion dose. METHODS Subjects were entered into a two phase trial. In the first (‘pretreatment’) subjects were provided with spectacle correction and underwent repeat visual acuity (VA) and contrast sensitivity (CS) testing until acuity in their amblyopic eye had stabilised. Subjects then progressed to the second phase (‘treatment’) in which they underwent direct, unilateral occlusion for 1 hour per day for 4 weeks. Patching was objectively monitored using an occlusion dose monitor. RESULTS Eight subjects completed the trial, all but one of whom achieved >80% concordance with the occlusion regimen. Within the pretreatment phase, mean amblyopic eye VA improved by 0.19 log units (p=0.008) while mean CS gained 0.09 log units (p=0.01). An identical improvement in mean VA was recorded in the fellow eyes (p=0.03) while mean CS gained 0.11 log units (p=0.02). Within the treatment phase, mean VA further improved (0.12 log units, p=0.009) although this gain had halved by the end of treatment and was no longer statistically significant (p=0.09). CONCLUSIONS Visual performance improved significantly during pretreatment whereas further gains seen during occlusion were not sustained. Evaluation of occlusion regimens must take into consideration the potentially confounding influence of ‘pretreatment effects’ and the necessity to confirm objectively the occlusion dose a child receives.

AIM/BACKGROUND--This study aimed to determine the feasibility of objective compliance monitoring of amblyopia therapy in clinical research. Occlusion has been the mainstay of amblyopia therapy for over 250 years, yet it has never been subjected to rigorous evaluation. Treatment regimens range arbitrarily from a few minutes to most of the waking hours of the day. Compliance is problematic and as, hitherto, accurate objective monitoring has been impossible it is not known how much occlusion is required to effect an improvement in vision. METHODS--An occlusion dose monitor (ODM) has been developed. The ODM consists of a modified occlusion patch and a miniature battery driven datalogger which periodically monitors patch skin contact. The patch is a standard disposable item with two miniature electrocardiogram electrodes attached to its undersurface. The datalogger comprises a high speed static RAM and a clock driven address counter. Data are retrieved using an IBM PC/AT computer. Fifteen child amblyopes were randomly allocated unilateral occlusion of 1, 4, or 8 hours per day for 4 weeks. Owing to data loss, presumed because of accumulation and discharge of static electricity, an additional child was included in the 8 hour group. Outcome measures were objective (ODM) and subjective (diary) compliance with treatment, logMAR visual acuity, and contrast sensitivity. RESULTS--Objective monitoring of occlusion is technically feasible and clinically informative. CONCLUSION--Objective monitoring of occlusion has opened up new research opportunities which, it is hoped, will enable the dose-effect relation of occlusion therapy in the various types of amblyopia to be investigated objectively, and facilitate the design of effective therapeutic regimens.

Our concern is with the evaluation of treatments for amblyopia, specifically with that of occlusion therapy. Some of the issues considered here are also relevant to the new pharmacological treatments under development (e.g. see Leguire, 1993).