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Interannual variability in the global land carbon sink is strongly related to variations in tropical temperature and rainfall. This association suggests an important role for moisture-driven fluctuations in tropical vegetation productivity, but empirical evidence to quantify the responsible ecological processes is missing. Such evidence can be obtained from tree-ring data that quantify variability in a major vegetation productivity component: woody biomass growth. Here we compile a pantropical tree-ring network to show that annual woody biomass growth increases primarily with dry-season precipitation and decreases with dry-season maximum temperature. The strength of these dry-season climate responses varies among sites, as reflected in four robust and distinct climate response groups of tropical tree growth derived from clustering. Using cluster and regression analyses, we find that dry-season climate responses are amplified in regions that are drier, hotter and more climatically variable. These amplification patterns suggest that projected global warming will probably aggravate drought-induced declines in annual tropical vegetation productivity. Our study reveals a previously underappreciated role of dry-season climate variability in driving the dynamics of tropical vegetation productivity and consequently in influencing the land carbon sink.

The spatial coverage of tree-ring chronologies in tropical South America is low compared to the extratropics, particularly in remote regions. Tree-ring dating from such tropical sites is limited by the generally weak temperature seasonality, complex coloration, and indistinct anatomical morphology in some tree species. As a result, there is a need to complement traditional methods of dendrochronology with innovative and independent approaches. Here, we supplement traditional tree-ring methods via the use of radiocarbon analyses to detect partial missing rings and/or false rings, and wood anatomical techniques to precisely delineate tree-ring boundaries. In so doing we present and confirm the annual periodicity of the first tree-ring width (TRW) chronology spanning from 1814 to 2017 for Juglans boliviana (‘nogal’), a tree species growing in a mid-elevation tropical moist forest in northern Bolivia. We collected 25 core samples and 4 cross-sections from living and recently harvested canopy-dominant trees, respectively. The sampled trees were growing in the Madidi National Park and had a mean age of 115 years old, with certain trees growing for over 200 years. Comparison of (residual and standard) TRW chronologies to monthly climate variables shows significant negative relationships to prior year May-August maximum temperatures (r = −0.54, p < 0.05) and positive relationships to dry season May-October precipitation (r = 0.60, p < 0.05) before the current year growing season. Additionally, the radial growth of Juglans boliviana shows a significant positive trend since 1979. Our findings describe a new and promising tree species for dendrochronology due to its longevity and highlight interdisciplinary techniques that can be used to expand the current tree-ring network in Bolivia and the greater South American tropics., This work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) projects AGS-1702789, OISE-1743738 and AGS-1903687. MEF was partially supported by Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica (ANPCyT), PICT-2019-01336 PMO BID (Argentina). G.M.S. thanks U.S. National Science Foundation for support (AGS-1703035 and AGS-1903690).

1.AbstractAs a temperature-delineated boundary, the Arctic treeline is predicted to shift northward in response to warming. However, the evidence for northward movement is mixed, with some sections of the treeline advancing while others remain stationary or even retreat. To identify the drivers of this variation, we need a landscape-level understanding of the interactions occurring between climate, tree growth, and population regeneration. In this study, we assessed regeneration alongside annual tree growth and climate during the 20th century. We used an ageheight model combined with tree height from aerial lidar to predict the age structure of 38,652 white spruce trees across 250 ha of Arctic treeline in the central Brooks Range, Alaska, USA. We then used age structure analysis to interpret the trends in regeneration and tree-ring analysis to interpret changes in annual tree growth. The climate became significantly warmer and drier circa 1975, coinciding with divergent responses of regeneration and tree growth. After 1975, regeneration of saplings (trees ≤ 2m tall) decreased compared to previous decades whereas annual growth in mature trees (trees >2m tall) increased by 54% (p

Much is still unknown about the growth and physiological responses of trees to global change at the northern treeline. We combined tree-ring width data with century-long stable carbon and oxygen isotope records to investigate growth and physiological responses of white spruce at two treeline sites in the Canadian Arctic to concurrent increases in temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca), and decline in sea ice extent over the past century. The tree-ring records were assessed during three periods with contrasting climatic conditions: (a) the early 20th century warming, (b) the 1940–1970 cooling period, and (c) the anthropogenic late 20th century warming period. We found opposing growth trends between the two sites, but similar carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) trajectories. While tree growth (defined as basal area increment) increased at the site nearer to the Arctic Ocean during the 20th century following the rise in temperature and sea ice loss, growth declined after 1950 at the more interior site. At both sites, Δ13C slightly increased over these periods. However, trees showed a nonlinear response to increased ca, shifting after 1970 from a passive stomatal response (i.e., no changes in iWUE) to an active response (i.e., a moderate ∼12% increase in iWUE). Further, our isotope-based findings do not support the idea that temperature-induced drought stress caused the divergent growth trends at our treeline sites. This study thus highlights nonlinear and complex physiological and growth adjustments to concomitant changes in temperature, sea ice extent, and ca over the last century at the northern treeline., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 128 (4), ISSN:0148-0227, ISSN:2169-8953, ISSN:2169-8961

Oxygen stable isotopes measured in tree rings have been useful for reconstructing climate variability and explaining changes in physiological processes occurring in forests, complementing other more widely studied tree-ring parameters such as ring width. Here, we analyzed the relationships between different climate parameters and annually resolved tree-ring δ18O records (d18OTR) from white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench]Voss) trees located near Tungsten, Northwest Territories, Canada, and used the NASA GISS ModelE2 isotopically equipped general circulation model (GCM) to interpret the relationships in an idealized sense. The d18OTR series were primarily related to temperature variations in spring and summer, likely through temperature effects on the precipitation δ18O with a combination of evaporative enrichment at leaf level in summer. The GCM simulations showed significant positive relationships between modelled precipitation δ18O over the study region and surface temperature and geopotential height over northwestern North America, with stronger patterns during fall winter than during spring-summer. The modelled precipitation δ18O was only significantly associated with moisture transport during the fall-winter season. The d18OTR showed similar correlation patterns to modelled precipitation δ18O during spring-summer, with significant positive correlations with surface temperature and geopotential height, but no correlations with moisture transport. Overall, the d18OTR records for northwestern Canada reflect the same significant large-scale climate patterns as precipitation δ18O for spring-summer, and therefore have potential for reconstructions past atmospheric dynamics in addition to temperature variability.

Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540-43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.

Funding: Rob Wilson was funded through the University of Melbourne Dyason Fellowship in 2014 to undertake preliminary measurement and analyses for this study. We also acknowledge NSF-NERC funding (NE/W007223/1). Kathy Allen was supported by the Australian Research Council grants DP1201040320 and LP12020811 to Patrick Baker. We evaluate a range of blue intensity (BI) tree-ring parameters in eight conifer species (12 sites) from Tasmania and New Zealand for their dendroclimatic potential, and as surrogate wood anatomical proxies. Using a dataset of ca. 10–15 trees per site, we measured earlywood maximum blue intensity (EWB), latewood minimum blue intensity (LWB), and the associated delta blue intensity (DB) parameter for dendrochronological analysis. No resin extraction was performed, impacting low-frequency trends. Therefore, we focused only on the high-frequency signal by detrending all tree-ring and climate data using a 20-year cubic smoothing spline. All BI parameters express low relative variance and weak signal strength compared to ring width. Correlation analysis and principal component regression experiments identified a weak and variable climate response for most ring-width chronologies. However, for most sites, the EWB data, despite weak signal strength, expressed strong coherence with summer temperatures. Significant correlations for LWB were also noted, but the sign of the relationship for most species is opposite to that reported for all conifer species in the Northern Hemisphere. DB results were mixed but performed better for the Tasmanian sites when combined through principal component regression methods than for New Zealand. Using the full multi-species/parameter network, excellent summer temperature calibration was identified for both Tasmania and New Zealand ranging from 52 % to 78 % explained variance for split periods (1901–1950/1951–1995), with equally robust independent validation (coefficient of efficiency = 0.41 to 0.77). Comparison of the Tasmanian BI reconstruction with a quantitative wood anatomical (QWA) reconstruction shows that these parameters record essentially the same strong high-frequency summer temperature signal. Despite these excellent results, a substantial challenge exists with the capture of potential secular-scale climate trends. Although DB, band-pass, and other signal processing methods may help with this issue, substantially more experimentation is needed in conjunction with comparative analysis with ring density and QWA measurements. Publisher PDF

Traditionally, high-latitude dendroclimatic studies have focused on measurements of total ring width (RW), with the maximum density of the latewood (MXD) serving as a complementary variable. Whilst MXD has typically improved the strength of the growing season climate connection over that of RW, its measurements are costly and time-consuming. Recently, a less costly and more time-efficient technique to extract density measurements has emerged, based on lignin’s propensity to absorb blue light. This Blue Intensity (BI) methodology is based on image analyses of finely-sanded core samples, and the relative ease with which density measurements can be extracted allows for significant increases in spatio-temporal sample depth. While some studies have attempted to combine RW and MXD as predictors for summer temperature reconstructions, here we evaluate a systematic comparison of the climate signal for RW and latewood BI (LWBI) separately, using a recently updated and expanded tree ring database for Labrador, Canada. We demonstrate that while RW responds primarily to climatic drivers earlier in the growing season (January–April), LWBI is more responsive to climate conditions during late spring and summer (May–August). Furthermore, RW appears to be driven primarily by large-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with the Pacific North American pattern, whilst LWBI is more closely associated with local climate conditions, themselves linked to the behaviour of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Lastly, we demonstrate that anomalously wide or narrow growth rings consistently respond to the same climate drivers as average growth years, whereas the sensitivity of LWBI to extreme climate conditions appears to be enhanced.

This research was funded by grants from the US National Science Foundation P2C2 program (AGS-1501856, and AGS-1502224). BIC was supported by the NASA Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction program (NASA #80NSSC17K0265). Hydroclimate extremes in North America, Europe, and the Mediterranean are linked to ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Atlantic, but the limited length of the instrumental record prevents complete identification and characterization of these patterns of covariability especially at decadal to centennial timescales. Here we analyze the coupled patterns of drought variability on either side of the North Atlantic Ocean basin using independent climate field reconstructions spanning the last millennium in order to detect and attribute epochs of coherent basin-wide moisture anomalies to ocean and atmosphere processes. A leading mode of broad-scale moisture variability is characterized by distinct patterns of North Atlantic atmosphere circulation and sea surface temperatures. We infer a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and colder Atlantic sea surface temperatures in the middle of the 15th century, coincident with weaker solar irradiance and prior to strong volcanic forcing associated with the early Little Ice Age. Publisher PDF

Although extended or ‘protracted’ El Niño and La Niña episodes were first suggested nearly 20 years ago, they have not received the attention of other ‘flavours’ of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or low-frequency ‘ENSO-like’ phenomena. In this study, instrumental variables and palaeoclimatic reconstructions are used to investigate the most recent ‘protracted’ El Niño episode in 2014–2016, and place it into a longer historical context. Although just reaching the threshold for such an episode, the 2014–2016 ‘protracted’ El Niño had very severe societal, agricultural, environmental and ecological impacts, particularly in western Pacific regions like eastern Australia. We show that although ‘protracted’ ENSO episodes of either phase cause similar, near-global modulations of weather and climate as during more ‘classical’ events, impacts associated with ‘protracted’ episodes last longer, with strong influences in eastern Australia. The latter is a response to the dominance of Niño 4 sea surface temperature (SST) and associated atmospheric teleconnection anomalies during ‘protracted’ ENSO episodes. Importantly, while Niño 4 SST anomalies recorded during the austral summer of 2016 were the highest values on record, an analysis of long-term palaeoclimate records indicates that there may have been episodes of greater magnitude and duration than seen in instrumental observations. This suggests that shorter instrumental observations may underestimate the risks of possible future ENSO extremes compared with those observed from multi-century palaeoclimate records. Improved knowledge of ENSO and the potential to forecast ‘protracted’ episodes would be of immense practical benefit to communities affected by the severe impacts of ENSO extremes.

The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications.

Funding: National Science Foundation (NSF). Grant Number: 1737788 and NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoc Fellow Program. Grant Number: NA18NWS4620043B. Warming in Central Asia has been accelerating over the past three decades and is expected to intensify through the end of this century. Here, we develop a summer temperature reconstruction for western Mongolia spanning eight centuries (1269–2004 C.E.) using delta blue intensity measurements from annual rings of Siberian larch. A significant cooling response is observed in the year following major volcanic events and up to five years post-eruption. Observed summer temperatures since the 1990s are the warmest over the past eight centuries, an observation that is also well captured in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Projections for summer temperature relative to observations suggest further warming of between ∼3°C and 6°C by the end of the century (2075–2099 cf. 1950–2004) under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We conclude that projected future warming lies beyond the range of natural climate variability for the past millennium as estimated by our reconstruction. Publisher PDF

The lower Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh and Northeast India often floods during the monsoon season, with catastrophic consequences for people throughout the region. While most climate models predict an intensified monsoon and increase in flood risk with warming, robust baseline estimates of natural climate variability in the basin are limited by the short observational record. Here we use a new seven-century (1309–2004 C.E) tree-ring reconstruction of monsoon season Brahmaputra discharge to demonstrate that the early instrumental period (1956–1986 C.E.) ranks amongst the driest of the past seven centuries (13th percentile). Further, flood hazard inferred from the recurrence frequency of high discharge years is severely underestimated by 24–38% in the instrumental record compared to previous centuries and climate model projections. A focus on only recent observations will therefore be insufficient to accurately characterise flood hazard risk in the region, both in the context of natural variability and climate change., This study investigates flood hazards of the Brahmaputra River, Bangladesh. Based on a tree ring reconstruction of seasonal river discharge, climate modelling, and historic documentation of flood events, the authors suggest flood hazard risk is underestimated by ~24–38% in the present day compared to the past 700 years.

The interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) represents the decadal mode of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. As such the IPO is one of the dominant modes of decadal climate variability on both sides of the Pacific Ocean basin. For this paper we utilized a newly developed tree-ring data network comprised of five multi-centennial Vietnamese cypress ring-width chronologies that range from around 11°N–23°N latitude. We combined these data with an average of tree-ring derived drought indices from the North American Drought Atlas over the south central USA, from a box that spans from 27.5°N–35.0°N, 85.0°–110.0°W and contains 55 gridpoints and more than 100 tree ring site chronologies, these 2 locations exhibit rainfall variations that are strongly, negatively correlated with each other and are representative of the influence of the IPO on terrestrial rainfall. The final reconstruction model, weighted most heavily on the three most southerly of the five Vietnamese cypress records, spans from 1350 to 2004, and explains nearly 57% of the variance in the original IPO data for the 5-month season of October–February. The reconstruction model passes all standard statistical tests using a split calibration-verification scheme. We reveal 15 positive and 15 negative phase shifts of the IPO prior to the period of instrumentation, suggesting that the IPO has been active for at least the past seven centuries with varying degrees of intensity. We compare our reconstruction with two related millennial records: the MacDonald and Case (Geophys Res Lett 32(8):L08703, 2005) tree ring-derived reconstruction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and an ice core-derived reconstruction of the IPO from the Law Dome Ice core in Antarctica by Vance et al. (Geophys Res Lett 33(6):L06712, 2015). While there is good general agreement with the latter record, there are three key periods of the past where the two records are out of phase, and we explore the reasons for this disparity. Direct comparison with the related Tripole Index (TPI) shows weaker correlation, likely owing to the stronger relationship between our tree ring data and the equatorial Pacific region relative to the north and south regions of the Pacific that combine to comprise the TPI calculation.

Tree ring-width (TRW) and Maximum Latewood Density (MXD) series have been largely used to develop high-resolution temperature reconstructions for the Northern Hemisphere. The divergence phenomenon, a weakening of the positive relationship between TRW and summer temperatures, has been observed particularly in northwestern North America chronologies. In contrast, MXD datasets have shown a more stable relationship with summer temperatures, but it is costly and labor-intensive to produce. Recently, methodological advances in image analyses have led to development of a less expensive and labor-intensive MXD proxy known as Blue Intensity (BI). Here, we compare 6 newly developed BI tree-ring chronologies of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) from high-latitude boreal forests in North America (Alaska in USA; Yukon and the Northwestern Territory in Canada), with MXD chronologies developed at the same sites. We assessed the quality of BI in relation to MXD based on mean correlation between trees, chronology reliability based on the Expressed Population Signal (EPS), spectral properties, and the strength and spatial extent of the temperature signal. Individual BI chronologies established significant correlations with summer temperatures showing a similar strength and spatial cover than MXD chronologies. Overall, the BI tree-ring data is emerging as a valuable proxy for generating high-resolution temperature spatial reconstructions over northwestern America.

Our understanding of the full range of natural variability in streamflow, including how modern flow compares to the past, is poorly understood for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) because of short instrumental gauge records. To help address this challenge, we use Hierarchical Bayesian Regression (HBR) with partial pooling to develop six centuries long (1394–2008 C.E.) streamflow reconstructions at three UIB gauges (Doyian, Gilgit, and Kachora), concurrently demonstrating that HBR can be used to reconstruct short records with interspersed missing data. At one gauge (Partab Bridge), with a longer instrumental record (47 years), we develop reconstructions using both Bayesian Regression (BR) and the more conventionally used Principal Components Regression (PCR). The reconstructions produced by PCR and BR at Partab Bridge are nearly identical and yield comparable reconstruction skill statistics, highlighting that the resulting tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow is not dependent on the choice of statistical method. Reconstructions at all four reconstructions indicate flow levels in the 1990s were higher than mean flow for the past six centuries. While streamflow appears most sensitive to accumulated winter (January-March) precipitation and summer (MJJAS) temperature, with warm summers contributing to high flow through increased melt of snow and glaciers, shifts in winter precipitation and summer temperatures cannot explain the anomalously high flow during the 1990s. Regardless, the sensitivity of streamflow to summer temperatures suggests that projected warming may increase streamflow in coming decades, though long-term water risk will additionally depend on changes in snowfall and glacial mass balance.

This research was funded by the National Science Foundation of the USA research grants AGS 12-03818 and AGS 13-03976, with additional funding from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory’s Climate Center and Climate and Life initiatives. We developed Blue Intensity (BI) measurements from the crossdated ring sequences of Fokienia hodginsii (of the family Cupressaceae) from central Vietnam. BI has been utilized primarily as an indirect proxy measurement of latewood (LW) density of conifers (i.e., LWBI) from high latitude, temperature-limited boreal forests. As such, BI closely approximates maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements made from soft x-ray. The less commonly used earlywood (EW) BI (EWBI) represents the minimum density of EW and is influenced by the lighter pixels from the vacuoles or lumens of cells. The correlation of our BI measurements with climate, strongest for EWBI, rivals that for total ring width (RW), and we demonstrate that it can be successfully employed as an independent predictor for reconstruction models. EWBI exhibits robust spatial correlations with winter and spring land temperature, sea surface temperature (SST) over the regional domain of ENSO, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Indochina. However, in order to mitigate the effects of color changes at the heartwood – sapwood boundary we calculated ΔBI (EWBI-LWBI), and it too exhibits a significant (p

We present a 350-year hydroclimatic year (HY) index for northern Vietnam derived from three discrete seasonal reconstructions from tree rings: an index of autumn rainfall from the earlywood widths of Chinese Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga sinensis), the first such record from this species, and two nearby published Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions from cypress (Fokienia hodginsii) tree rings for spring and summer, respectively. Autumn rainfall over the study region constitutes only around 9% of the annual total, but its variability is strongly linked to the strength of the atmospheric gradient over Asia during the transition from the boreal summer to winter monsoons. Deficit or surplus of autumn rainfall enhances or mitigates, respectively, the impact of the annual winter dry season on trees growing on porous karst hillsides. The most protracted HY drought (dry across all seasons) occurred at the turn of the twentieth century at a time of relative quiet, but a mid-to-late eighteenth century multi-year HY drought coincided with a period of great societal turmoil across mainland Southeast Asia and the Tay Son Rebellion in northern Vietnam. A mid-nineteenth century uprising accompanied by a smallpox epidemic, crop failure and famine, occurred during the worst autumn drought of the past two and a half centuries but only moderate drought in spring and summer. The ���Great Vietnamese Famine��� of the mid-twentieth century was dry only in autumn, with a wet spring and an average summer.

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation’s Paleoclimatic Perspectives on Climatic Change (P2C2) Program grant nos. AGS 1159430, AGS 1502186, AGS 1502150, and PLR 15-04134 and by the Keck Geology Consortium funded by The National Science Foundation under Grant No. (NSF-REU #1358987). This is the first study to generate and analyze the climate signal in Blue Intensity (BI) tree-ring chronologies from Alaskan yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis D. Don; Oerst. ex D.P. Little). The latewood BI chronology shows a much stronger temperature sensitivity than ring-widths (RW), and thus can provide information on past climate. The well-replicated BI chronology exhibits a positive January-August average maximum temperature signal for 1900-1975, after which it loses temperature sensitivity following the 1976/77 shift in northeast Pacific climate. The positive temperature response appears to recover and remains strong for the most recent decades although the coming years will continue to test this observation. This temporary loss of temperature sensitivity from about 1976 to 1999 is not evident in RW or in a change in forest health, but is consistent with prior work linking cedar decline to warming. A confounding factor is the uncertain influence of a shift in color variation from the heartwood/sapwood boundary. Future expansion of the yellow-cedar BI network and further investigation of the influence of the heartwood/sapwood transitions in the BI signal will lead to a better understanding of the utility of this species as a climate proxy. Postprint

The original version of this Article contained an error in the Data Availability section, which incorrectly read ‘All data will be freely available via https://www.ams.ethz.ch/research.html.’ The correct version states ‘http://www.ams.ethz.ch/research/published-data.html’ in place of ‘https://www.ams.ethz.ch/research.html’. This has been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Supported by the German Science Foundation, grants # Inst 247/665-1 FUGG and ES 161/9-1. SSG acknowledges support by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, KJA by US National Science Foundation grants AGS-1501856 and NSF AGS-1501834, and JL and LS by the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action INTEGRATE. Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically draw attention to (i) the imbalance between (numerous) short and (few) long site chronologies incorporated into the hemispheric means, (ii) the beneficial effects of including maximum latewood density chronologies in the recently published reconstructions, (iii) a decrease in reconstruction covariance prior to 1400 CE, and (iv) the varying amplitudes and trends of reconstructed temperatures over the past 1100 years. Whereas the reconstructions agree on several important features, such as warmth during medieval times and cooler temperatures in the 17th and 19th centuries, they still exhibit substantial differences during 13th and 14th centuries. We caution users who might consider combining the reconstructions through simple averaging that all reconstructions share some of the same underlying tree-ring data, and provide four recommendations to guide future efforts to better understand past millennium temperature variability. Postprint

This paper describes two dominant patterns of Asian winter climate variability: the Siberian high (SH) pattern and the Asia–Arctic (AA) pattern. The former depicts atmospheric variability closely associated with the intensity of the Siberian high, and the latter characterizes the teleconnection pattern of atmospheric variability between Asia and the Arctic, which is distinct from the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The AA pattern plays more important roles in regulating winter precipitation and the 850-hPa meridional wind component over East Asia than the SH pattern, which controls surface air temperature variability over East Asia. In the Arctic Ocean and its marginal seas, sea ice loss in both autumn and winter could bring the positive phase of the SH pattern or cause the negative phase of the AA pattern. The latter corresponds to a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and enhanced winter precipitation in the midlatitudes of the Asian continent and East Asia. For the SH pattern, sea ice loss in the prior autumn emerges in the Siberian marginal seas, and winter loss mainly occurs in the Barents Sea, Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. For the AA pattern, sea ice loss in the prior autumn is observed in the Barents–Kara Seas, the western Laptev Sea, and the Beaufort Sea, and winter loss only occurs in some areas of the Barents Sea, the Labrador Sea, and Davis Strait. Simulation experiments with observed sea ice forcing also support that Arctic sea ice loss may favor frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the AA pattern. The results also imply that the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and winter atmospheric variability over East Asia is unstable, which is a challenge for predicting the EAWM based on Arctic sea ice loss.

Modulations of non-climatic factors on climate–growth relationships can confound the interpretation of dendroclimatic reconstructions. Accordingly, we evaluated the influences of core direction, tree age, tree size, growth rate and species on the climate–growth relationships of 210 tree-ring cores from Kongtong Mountain and Xiaolong Mountain on the semi-arid Chinese Loess Plateau. We employed both the linear methods of correlation and response function analyses, and the nonlinear method of the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). Most trees are sensitive to the moisture availability. Old trees are more sensitive to drought than young trees, which may be related to the intensified hydraulic resistances and reduced photosynthesis in response to drought. Tree cores taken from the southern direction are often more sensitive to drought than cores taken from other directions. The enhanced drought sensitivity for the southern cores may be possibly related to more branches and leaves for photosynthesis. Slow-growing trees show higher correlations with precipitation of the September prior to growth. This indicates that the extremely stressed, slow-growing trees tend to rely largely on nutrients produced prior to the growing season. For the reconstructions of annual drought in this region, we suggest collecting tree cores from the southern side of old trees growing at stressed sites.

Warming over Mongolia and Central Asia has been unusually rapid over the past few decades, particularly in the summer, with surface temperature anomalies higher than for much of the globe. With few temperature station records available in this remote region prior to the 1950s, paleoclimatic data must be used to understand annual-to-centennial scale climate variability, local response to large-scale forcing mechanisms, and the significance of major features of the past millennium such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) both of which can vary globally. Here we use an extensive collection of living and subfossil wood samples from temperature-sensitive trees to produce a millennial-length, validated reconstruction of summer temperatures for Mongolia and Central Asia from 931 to 2005 CE. This tree-ring reconstruction shows general agreement with the MCA (warming) and LIA (cooling) trends, a significant volcanic signature, and warming in the 20th and 21st Century. Recent warming (2000–2005) exceeds that from any other time and is concurrent with, and likely exacerbated, the impact of extreme drought (1999–2002) that resulted in massive livestock loss across Mongolia.

Kamchatka���s forests span across the peninsula���s diverse topography and provide a wide range of physiographic and elevational settings that can be used to investigate how forests are responding to climate change and to anticipate future response. Birch (Betula ermanii Cham.) and larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen) were sampled at eight new sites and together with previous collections were compared with monthly temperature and precipitation records to identify their climate response. Comparisons show that tree-ring widths in both species are primarily influenced by May through August temperatures of the current growth year, and that there is a general increase in temperature sensitivity with altitude. The ring-width data for each species were also combined into regional chronologies. The resulting composite larch chronology shows a strong resemblance to a Northern Hemisphere (NH) tree-ring based temperature reconstruction with the larch series tracking NH temperatures closely through the past 300 years. The composite birch ring-width series more closely reflects the Pacific regional coastal late summer temperatures. These new data improve our understanding of the response of forests to climate and show the low frequency warming noted in other, more continental records from high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Also evident in the ring-width record is that the larch and birch forests continue to track the strong warming of interior Kamchatka.

Volcanic eruptions have global climate impacts, but their effect on the hydrologic cycle is poorly understood. We use a modified version of superposed epoch analysis, an eruption year list collated from multiple datasets, and seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions (soil moisture, precipitation, geopotential heights, and temperature) to investigate volcanic forcing of spring and summer hydroclimate over Europe and the Mediterranean over the last millennium. In the western Mediterranean, wet conditions occur in the eruption year and the following 3 years. Conversely, northwestern Europe and the British Isles experience dry conditions in response to volcanic eruptions, with the largest moisture deficits in post-eruption years 2 and 3. The precipitation response occurs primarily in late spring and early summer (April-July), a pattern that strongly resembles the negative phase of the East Atlantic Pattern. Modulated by this mode of climate variability, eruptions force significant, widespread, and heterogeneous hydroclimate responses across Europe and the Mediterranean.

Climate in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) reflects large-scale ocean-atmosphere variability of the North Pacific climate system. Ring-width (RW) records from the GOA have yielded a valuable long-term perspective for North Pacific changes on decadal to longer time scales in prior studies, but express a broad winter to late summer seasonal response. Similar to the highly climate-sensitive maximum latewood density (MXD) proxy, the Blue Intensity (BI) parameter has recently been shown to correlate well with year-to-year warm-season temperatures for a number of sites at northern latitudes. Since BI records are much less expensive and labor intensive to generate than MXD, such data hold great potential value for future tree-ring studies in the GOA and other regions at mid-to-high latitudes. Here we highlight the potential for improving tree-ring based reconstructions using combinations of RW and BI-related parameters (latewood BI (LWB) and delta BI (DB)) from an experimental sub-set of samples from eight mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) sites along the GOA. This is the first such study for the hemlock genus using BI data. We find that using either LWB or DB can improve the amount of explained temperature variance by > 10 % compared to RW alone although the optimal target season changes to June–September, which may have implications for studying ocean-atmosphere variability in the region. However, one challenge in building these BI records is that resin extraction did not remove colour differences between the heartwood and sapwood, so long term trend biases, expressed as relatively warm temperatures in the 18th century, were noted when using the LWB data. Using DB appeared to overcome these trend biases resulting in a reconstruction expressing 18th–19th century temperatures ca. 0.5 °C cooler than the 20th/21st centuries. This cool period agrees well with previous dendroclimatic studies and the glacial advance record in the region. Continuing BI measurement in the GOA region must focus on sampling more trees per site (> 20) and more sites to overcome site specific factors effecting climate response while sub-fossil material will extend the reflectance records back over 1000 years. DB appears to capture long term secular trends that agree with other proxy archives in the region but great care is needed when implementing different detrending options. Finally, more experimentation is needed to assess the utility of DB for different conifer species around the Northern Hemisphere.

Suthors thank the National Science Foundation Paleoclimatological Perspectives on Climatic Change (P2C2) program, including grant nos. AGS-1502150 and AGS 1502224. The Scottish Pine Project (http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/ScottishPine/) acknowledges funding through the EU project “Millennium” (017008-2), Leverhulme Trust project “RELiC: Reconstructing 8000 years of Environmental and Landscape change in the Cairngorms (F/00 268/BG)”, and the NERC project “SCOT2K: Reconstructing 2000 years of Scottish climate from tree rings (NE/ K003097/1). MR acknowledges funding through the EVA4.0 project 583 (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803). Recent work has linked historical crises, both regional and local, with palaeoclimatic estimates of global and hemispheric climate change. Such studies tend to underemphasize the spatiotemporal and socioeconomical disparity of human suffering and adaptive capacity as well as the complexities of past climate change. We focus herein on the effects in Scotland of a severely cold climate episode in the 1690s, associated with major tropical volcanic events including a large unidentified tropical eruption in 1695. A tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction from the northern Cairngorms region identifies the 1690s as the coldest decade in Scotland for the last 750 years. Archival sources meanwhile reveal the 1690s as likely the worst era of crop failure, food shortage, and mortality ever documented in Scottish history. The connection appears simple - volcanic cooling triggered famine - but the drivers towards famine are far more complex. Although the unusual coldness of the 1690s was near-hemispheric in scale, it had a differential impact across north-western Europe. Within Scotland, both lowlands and highlands experienced dire conditions, but distinct factors exacerbated the suffering in each region. We integrate historical and palaeoclimatic records to explore the influence of the volcanic cold pulse of the 1690s and its consequences in Scotland. We find that while cooling temperatures characterized the regional to larger-scale climate, vulnerability and response potential were diverse and shaped by local circumstances. The Scottish crisis of the 1690s, in the context of the kingdom's failing economy, influenced investors from all parts of society, including the nobility and entire communities, to fund the ill-fated expedition to colonize Darien in modern-day Panama. The climate crisis and the colony's collapse hindered Scotland's already sluggish economy, motivating unification with England soon after. Postprint

On July 2010, archaeologists monitoring excavation at the World Trade Center site (WTC) in Lower Manhattan found the remains of a portion of a ship's hull. Because the date of construction and origin of the timbers were unknown, samples from different parts of the ship were taken for dendrochronological dating and provenancing. After developing a 280-year long floating chronology from 19 samples of the white oak group (Quercus section Leucobalanus), we used 21 oak chronologies from the eastern United States to evaluate absolute dating and provenance. Our results showed the highest agreement between the WTC ship chronology and two chronologies from Philadelphia (r = 0.36; t = 6.4; p < 0.001; n = 280) and eastern Pennsylvania (r = 0.35; t = 6.3; p < 0.001; n = 280). The last ring dates of the seven best-preserved samples suggest trees for the ship were felled in 1773 CE or soon after. Our analyses suggest that all the oak timbers used to build the ship most likely originated from the sa...

A new ring-width record from the eastern flanks of the Eastern Sakhalin Range, Sakhalin Island, Russian Federation is significantly correlated with summer temperatures and allows for the reconstruction of May–July average temperatures for the past 400 years. The reconstruction explains 37 % of the variance in May–July temperatures and shows a strong cooling between 1680 and 1710 CE coincident with the Maunder solar minimum and in agreement with other independent tree-ring reconstructions and glacier histories from sites along the margin of the Sea of Okhotsk. While recent decades are among the warmest in the record they are rivaled by periods centered on 1650 and 1850 CE. Warming in the observational record and the reconstruction is consistent with the influence of the declining strength of the Siberian High and loss of sea ice over the same interval. Decadal (17–25 year) variability persists throughout the reconstruction. At interannual timescales the Sakhalin reconstruction is most strongly correlated with local and central North Pacific sea surface temperatures over the past 120 years, whereas at decadal timescales there is an additional association with Asian land surface temperatures.

We show evidence for the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on Myanmar's monsoonal hydroclimate using both instrumental and 20th century reanalysis data, and a tree-ring width chronology from Myanmar's central Dry Zone. The ‘regime shifts’ identified in the instrumental PDO for the past century are clearly evident in the Myanmar teak. The teak record and PDO index correlate most significantly and positively during December–May, at r = 0.41 (0.002, n = 109). We generated composite climate anomalies for southern Asia and adjacent ocean areas during negative and positive PDO phases and above/below average teak growth for the May–September wet monsoon season. They show that negative (positive) PDO phases correspond to dry (wet) conditions, due to reduced (enhanced) moisture flux into central Myanmar. Multitaper Method (MTM) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) spectral analyses reveal considerable multidecadal variability over the past several centuries of the teak chronology, consistent with the PDO.

In the Original publication of the article, a grant number was not included in the in acknowlegement section. The correct information is as follows.