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The spread of exotic species to new areas can be magnified when favored by future climatic conditions. Forecasting future ranges using species distribution models (SDMs) could be improved by considering physiological thresholds, because models solely based on occurrence data cannot account for plasticity due to acclimation of individuals to local conditions over their life-time or to adaptation due to selection within local populations. This is particularly relevant for the exotic seagrass Halophila stipulacea, which colonized the Mediterranean Sea a century ago and shifted its thermal niche, coping with a colder regime. Here, we used two hybrid models combining correlative SDMs with the thermal limits for growth of native and exotic H. stipulacea populations to predict the distribution of the species in its native (Indian Ocean and Red Sea) and exotic ranges (Mediterranean Sea and Caribbean Sea) under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes by 2050 and 2100. Then, we assessed the differences between hybrid models based on native Red Sea thermal limits (niche conservatism: 17–36°C) and on exotic Mediterranean thermal limits (local adaptation: 14–36°C). At the Mediterranean exotic range, the local adaptation hybrid model accurately agreed with the present distribution of the species while the niche conservatism-based hybrid model failed to predict 87% of the current occurrences of the species. By contrast, both hybrid models predicted similar species distributions for the native range and exotic Caribbean range at present and projected that H. stipulacea will maintain its current worldwide under all future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hybrid model based on Mediterranean thermal limits projected the expansion of H. stipulacea through the western Mediterranean basin (except the gulf of Leon) under the most severe scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2100, increasing its distribution by 50% in the Mediterranean. The future expansion of H. stipulacea is related to its capacity to cope with warm waters and it may become a relevant species in the future, particularly under the projected decline of native Mediterranean seagrasses, resulting in important shifts in seagrass communities and overall ecosystem functions., This study was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (SuMaEco RTI2018-095441-B-C21), King Abdullah University for Science and Technology (3834 KAUST-CSIC Research Collaboration), the Foundation for Science and Technology (UIDB/04326/2020), and the Operational Programmes CRESC Algarve 2020 and COMPETE 2020 (EMBRC.PT ALG-01-0145-FEDER-022121 and BIODATA.PT ALG-01-0145-FEDER-022231). MW was supported by a Ph.D. contract (BES-2016-078241) of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities. RC obtained additional support from the European Union’s Horizon.

Climate-driven range-shifts create evolutionary opportunities for allopatric divergence and subsequent contact, leading to genetic structuration and hybrid zones. We investigate how these processes influenced the evolution of a complex of three closely related Cystoseira spp., which are a key component of the Mediterranean-Atlantic seaweed forests that are undergoing population declines. The C. tamariscifolia complex, composed of C. tamariscifolia s.s., C. amentacea and C. mediterranea, have indistinct boundaries and natural hybridization is suspected. Our aims are to (1) infer the genetic structure and diversity of these species throughout their distribution ranges using microsatellite markers to identify ancient versus recent geographical populations, contact zones and reproductive barriers, and (2) hindcast past distributions using niche models to investigate the influence of past range shifts on genetic divergence at multiple spatial scales. Results supported a single, morphologically plastic species the genetic structure of which was incongruent with a priori species assignments. The low diversity and low singularity in northern European populations suggest recent colonization after the LGM. The southern Iberian genetic hotspot most likely results from the role of this area as a climatic refugium or a secondary contact zone between differentiated populations or both. We hypothesize that life-history traits (selfing, low dispersal) and prior colonization effects, rather than reproductive barriers, might explain the observed genetic discontinuities. Pew Charitable Trusts (USA); MARINERA, Spain [CTM2008-04183-E/MAR]; FCT (Portugal) [FCT-BIODIVERSA/004/2015, CCMAR/Multi/04326/2013, SFRH/BPD/107878/2015, SFRH/BPD/85040/2012]; FPU fellowship of the Spanish Ministry of Education; European Community ASSEMBLE visiting grant [00399/2012]; University of Cadiz

Knowledge gaps regarding species distribution and abundance are great in remote regions with political instability, and they might be even larger concerning elusive and rare species. We predict the potential distribution for Hierophis andreanus, a poorly known endemic snake in the Iranian Plateau, and assess its conservation status in relation to existing protected areas. We used a maximum entropy modeling tool and Mahalanobis distance to produce an ensemble species distribution model. The most suitable habitats where located mainly in mountain ranges and adjacent areas of Iran and Afghanistan. Mean temperature and slope were the most important predictors for our models. Furthermore, just five localities for H. andreanus were inside the Iranian protected areas. A 10 km expansion from existing boundaries of protected areas in all directions would double protected localities to 10, and a 20 km buffer would result in 13 protected localities. Our findings are particularly valuable to select locations to conduct new surveys and produce a more reliable estimate of current population size to improve conservation and management for this reptile in the Irano-Anatolian region.

We develop a new perspective on the uncertainties affecting the predictions of coastal species distributions using patterns of genetic diversity to assess the congruence of hindcasted distribution models. We model the niche of the subtidal seagrass Cymodocea nodosa, for which previous phylogeographic findings are used to contrast hypotheses for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic coastal regions. We focus on amelioration of sampling bias, and explore the influence of other sources of uncertainty such as the number of variables, Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), and thresholds used. To do that, we test geographical and environmental filtering of presences, and a species-specific weighted filter related to political boundaries for background data. Contrary to our initial hypothesis that reducing sampling bias by means of geographical, environmental or background filtering would enhance predictive power and reliability of the models, none of these approaches consistently improved performance. These counter-intuitive results might be explained by the higher relative occurrence area (ROA) inherent to linear coastal study areas in relation to terrestrial regions, which may cause worse predictions and, thus, higher variability among models. We found that the Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs), the threshold and, to a smaller extent, the number of variables used, conditioned greatly the variability of the predictions in both accuracy and geographic range. Despite these uncertainties, all models achieved the goal of identifying long-term persistence regions (glacial refugia) where the highest genetic diversity for Cymodocea nodosa is found nowadays. However, only the CCSM corroborated the hypothesis, raised in previous studies, of a vicariant process in shaping the species' genetic structure. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) [SFRH/BPD/85040/2012] Pew Foundation (USA) [UID/Multi/04326/2013] info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Aims In Mediterranean countries, traditional salt exploitation has been practiced over centuries. However, there is a progressive reduction of active saltworks, causing changes in the adjacent halophytic communities and, ultimately, the invasion by opportunistic plant species. Assessing the impact of land use change is key to understanding and protecting these fragile wetland ecosystems. Here, we explore how the abandonment of saltworks is impacting plant communities. We assess if the reduction in saltworks activity alters the composition of protected halophytic communities and favours the invasion by Carpobrotus edulis, an invasive species in many coastal regions throughout the world. Location The Natural Park of Ria Formosa (Algarve, Portugal). Methods We studied variations in the structure of halophytic communities affected to different degrees by C. edulis over three saltworks land use regimes in the Ria Formosa. Plant cover and soil salinity were estimated in a total of 60 transects pertaining to two saltworks complexes harbouring different land use and hydrologic regimes. We performed a non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination of saltworks based on plant cover and identified the indicator species of each saltworks class. Results We found that plant communities significantly varied among types of saltworks according to the pattern of soil salinity and hydrologic regime. We identified C. edulis as the main indicator species of the abandoned saltworks' communities, characterized by less saline soils and being desiccated in summer. Conclusions Land-use change caused by the abandonment of salinas facilitated the transition of halophytic into psammophytic communities and the invasiveness of C. edulis. The maintenance of traditional saltworks activities is vital for the preservation of this fragile wetland ecosystem. FCT - Foundation for Science and TechnologyPortuguese Foundation for Science and Technology [UID/Multi/04326/2019] FCT project PORBIOTA through a postdoctoral fellowship University of Algarve

Aim Phenology of a wide diversity of organisms has a dependency on climate, usually with reproductive periods beginning earlier in the year and lasting longer at lower latitudes. Temperature and day length are known environmental drivers of the reproductive timing of many species. Hence, reproductive phenology is sensitive to warming and is important to be considered for reliable predictions of species distributions. This is particularly relevant for rapidly spreading non-indigenous species (NIS). In this study, we forecast the future ranges of a NIS, the seaweed Sargassum muticum, including its reproductive phenology. Location Coastal areas of the Northern Hemisphere (Pacific and Atlantic oceans). Methods We used ecological niche modelling to predict the distribution of S. muticum under two scenarios forecasting limited (RCP 2.6) and severe (RCP 8.5) future climate changes. We then refined our predictions with a hybrid model using sea surface temperature constraints on reproductive phenology. Results Under the most severe climate change scenario, we predicted northward expansions which may have significant ecological consequences for subarctic coastal ecosystems. However, in lower latitudes, habitats currently occupied by S. muticum will no longer be suitable, creating opportunities for substantial community changes. The temperature constraints imposed by the reproductive window were shown to restrict the modelled future species expansion strongly. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the total range area was expected to increase by 61.75% by 2100, but only by 1.63% when the reproductive temperature window was considered. Main conclusions Altogether these results exemplify the need to integrate phenology better to improve the prediction of future distributional shifts at local and regional scales. Agência financiadora Número do subsídio Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia CCMAR/Multi/04326/2019 FCT-BIODIVERSA/004/2015 FCT-SEAS-ERA/0001/2012 SFRH/BPD/107878/2015 SFRH/BPD/85040/2012 Erasmus Mundus Doctoral Programme MARES on Marine Ecosystem Health Conservation MARES_13_08 Pew Marine info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well-documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst-case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.

Understanding the factors that affect seagrass meadows encompassing their entire range of distribution is challenging yet important for their conservation. Here, we predict the realized and potential distribution for the species Cymodocea nodosa modelling its environmental niche in the Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic coastlines. We use a combination of environmental variables and landscape metrics to perform a suite of predictive algorithms which enables examination of the niche and find suitable habitats for the species. The most relevant environmental variables defining the distribution of C. nodosa were sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. We found suitable habitats at SST from 5.8 A degrees C to 26.4 A degrees C and salinity ranging from 17.5 to 39.3. Optimal values of mean winter wave height ranged between 1.2 and 1.5 m, while waves higher than 2.5 m seemed to limit the presence of the species. The influence of nutrients and pH, despite having weight on the models, was not so clear in terms of ranges that confine the distribution of the species. Landscape metrics able to capture variation in the coastline enhanced significantly the accuracy of the models, despite the limitations caused by the scale of the study. We found potential suitable areas not occupied by the seagrass mainly in coastal regions of North Africa and the Adriatic coast of Italy. The present study describes the realized and potential distribution of a seagrass species, providing the first global model of the factors that can be shaping the environmental niche of C. nodosa throughout its range. We identified the variables constraining its distribution as well as thresholds delineating its environmental niche. Landscape metrics showed promising prospects for the prediction of coastal species dependent on the shape of the coast. By contrasting predictive approaches, we defined the variables affecting the distributional areas that seem unsuitable for C. nodosa as well as those suitable habitats not occupied by the species. These findings are encouraging for its use in future studies on climate-related marine range shifts and meadow restoration projects of these fragile ecosystems. CCMAR/BPD/0045/2013

Climate change is inducing shifts in species ranges across the globe. These can affect the genetic pools of species, including loss of genetic variability and evolutionary potential. In particular, geographically enclosed ecosystems, like the Mediterranean Sea, have a higher risk of suffering species loss and genetic erosion due to barriers to further range shifts and to dispersal. In this study, we address these questions for three habitat-forming seaweed species, Cystoseira tamariscifolia, C. amentacea and C. compressa, throughout their entire ranges in the Atlantic and Mediterranean regions. We aim to 1) describe their population genetic structure and diversity, 2) model the present and predict the future distribution and 3) assess the consequences of predicted future range shifts for their population genetic structure, according to two contrasting future climate change scenarios. A net loss of suitable areas was predicted in both climatic scenarios across the range of distribution of the three species. This loss was particularly severe for C. amentacea in the Mediterranean Sea (less 90% in the most extreme climatic scenario), suggesting that the species could become potentially at extinction risk. For all species, genetic data showed very differentiated populations, indicating low inter-population connectivity, and high and distinct genetic diversity in areas that were predicted to become lost, causing erosion of unique evolutionary lineages. Our results indicated that the Mediterranean Sea is the most threatened region, where future suitable Cystoseira habitats will become more limited. This is likely to have wider ecosystem impacts as there is a lack of species with the same ecological niche and functional role in the Mediterranean. The projected accelerated loss of already fragmented and disturbed populations and the long-term genetic effects highlight the urge for local scale management strategies that sustain the capacity of these habitat-forming species to persist despite climatic impacts while waiting for global emission reductions.

Cladocora caespitosa is the only Mediterranean scleractinian similar to tropical reef-building corals. While this species is part of the recent fossil history of the Mediterranean Sea, it is currently considered endangered due to its decline during the last decades. Environmental factors affecting the distribution and persistence of extensive bank reefs of this endemic species across its whole geographic range are poorly understood. In this study, we examined the environmental response of C. caespitosa and its main types of assemblages using ecological niche modeling and ordination analysis. We also predicted other suitable areas for the occurrence of the species and assessed the conservation effectiveness of Mediterranean marine protected areas (MPAs) for this coral. We found that phosphate concentration and wave height were factors affecting both the occurrence of this versatile species and the distribution of its extensive bioconstructions in the Mediterranean Sea. A set of factors (diffuse attenuation coefficient, calcite and nitrate concentrations, mean wave height, sea surface temperature, and shape of the coast) likely act as environmental barriers preventing the species from expansion to the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea. Uncertainties in our large-scale statistical results and departures from previous physiological and ecological studies are also discussed under an integrative perspective. This study reveals that Mediterranean MPAs encompass eight of the ten banks and 16 of the 21 beds of C. caespitosa. Preservation of water clarity by avoiding phosphate discharges may improve the protection of this emblematic species., RMC was supported by the postdoctoral fellowship SFRH/BPD/85040/2012 from the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) and JT by the project ConCoast (CTM2014-57949-R) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. This article is a contribution to the European project COCONET from the VII FP of the European Commission. We also acknowledge FCT funding by “UID/Multi/04326/2013” to CCMAR.

Oceanographic features shape the distributional and genetic patterns of marine species by interrupting or promoting connections among populations. Although general patterns commonly arise, distributional ranges and genetic structure are species-specific and do not always comply with the expected trends. By applying a multimarker genetic approach combined with Lagrangian particle simulations (LPS) we tested the hypothesis that oceanographic features along northeastern Atlantic and Mediterranean shores influence dispersal potential and genetic structure of the intertidal mussel Perna perna. Additionally, by performing environmental niche modelling we assessed the potential and realized niche of P. perna along its entire native distributional range and the environmental factors that best explain its realized distribution. Perna perna showed evidence of panmixia across > 4,000 km despite several oceanographic breaking points detected by LPS. This is probably the result of a combination of life history traits, continuous habitat availability and stepping-stone dynamics. Moreover, the niche modelling framework depicted minimum sea surface temperatures (SST) as the major factor shaping P. perna distributional range limits along its native areas. Forthcoming warming SST is expected to further change these limits and allow the species to expand its range polewards though this may be accompanied by retreat from warmer areas. Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT-MEC, Portugal) [UID/Multi/04326/2013, IF/01413/2014/CP1217/CT0004]; South African Research Chairs Initiative (SARChI) of the Department of Science and Technology; National Research Foundation; South African National Research Foundation (NRF); Portuguese Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT) [SFRH/BPD/85040/2012, SFRH/BPD/111003/2015] info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Marine algae invasions attract a lot of interest as they are altering the structure of marine ecosystems. However, niche dynamics and risk predictions of marine invasions integrating phylogeographic structure in the analyses have not yet been investigated. In this study, we perform a comprehensive analysis of two invasive lineages of Caulerpa taxifolia with different residence time in the Mediterranean Sea for a better understanding of their invasive processes. We performed lineage-based and species-based niche models to assess the risk of invasion, the spatial overlap, and the variables delimiting the distribution of the two lineages. We also compared the effect of using different extents on niche overlap and niche shift analyses. Intraspecific models with pooled occurrences accurately found two separate regions susceptible of invasion for each invasive lineage in the Mediterranean, while species-based predictions underestimated invaded regions. The invasive lineages spread across colder coastal areas than the species. Altogether, we provide evidence that different invasive lineages of algae show dissimilar environmental responses and invasive ranges that are not detectable by species-based analyses. Moreover, niche overlap and niche shift analyses seem to depend greatly on the geographical extent used. According to the most appropriate extent (worldwide), the invaded range did not show niche shift, and thus, no evidence of a post-introduction adaptation scenario was found as both lineages invaded habitats similar to their Australian native locations. Actions to prevent further spreading of the most recent invasive lineage are needed. SFRH/BPD/109452/2015 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The chapter 4 of the dissertation:Community dynamics of stabilized dune xerophytic shrubs (2016) reproduces entirely the manuscript of:Annals of Botany 119: 1157-1167 (2017). El capítulo 4 de la tesis doctoral: Community dynamics of stabilized dune xerophytic shrubs (2016), reproduce íntegramente la información del artículo: Annals of Botany 119: 1157-1167 (2017)., Background and Aims The geographical distributions of species are constrained by their ecological requirements. The aim of this work was to analyse the effects of environmental conditions, historical events and biogeographical constraints on the diversification of the three species of the western Mediterranean shrub genus Stauracanthus, which have a parapatric distribution in the Iberian Peninsula., Methods Ecological niche factor analysis and generalized linear models were used to measure the response of all Stauracanthus species to the environmental gradients and map their potential distributions in the Iberian Peninsula. The bioclimatic niche overlap between the three species was determined by using Schoener’s index. The genetic differentiation of the Iberian and northern African populations of Stauracanthus species was characterized with GenalEx. The effects on genetic distances of the most important environmental drivers were assessed through Mantel tests and non-metric multidimensional scaling., Results The three Stauracanthus species show remarkably similar responses to climatic conditions. This supports the idea that all members of this recently diversified clade retain common adaptations to climate and consequently high levels of climatic niche overlap. This contrasts with the diverse edaphic requirements of Stauracanthus species. The populations of the S. genistoides–spectabilis clade grow on Miocene and Pliocene finetextured sedimentary soils, whereas S. boivinii, the more genetically distant species, occurs on older and more coarse-textured sedimentary substrates. These patterns of diversification are largely consistent with a stochastic process of geographical range expansion and fragmentation coupled with niche evolution in the context of spatially complex environmental fluctuations, Conclusions: The combined analysis of the distribution, realized environmental niche and phylogeographical relationships of parapatric species proposed in this work allows integration of the biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary processes driving the evolution of species adaptations and how they determine their current geographical ranges., R.B. by a contract of the Atracción de Talento Investigador Programme (Gobierno de Extremadura TA13032).

A large array of species and species complexes from the Iberian Peninsula display strong genetic subdivisions indicative of past population isolation in separate glacial refugia as a result of survival throughout the Pleistocene ice ages. We used mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data to analyse phylogeographic patterns in a group of endemic land snails of the genus Candidula from a valley of central Portugal (Vale da Couda) showing an exceptionally narrow distributional range. Phylogenetic analyses recovered Vale da Couda specimens in two main clades that do not share a common ancestry. Considering the restricted geographic distribution, an unusual high number of haplotypes was found. These haplotypes were unevenly distributed among the sampling sites. Our results show a departure from the expectation that species with restricted distributions have low genetic variability. The putative past and contemporary models of geographic distribution of Vale da Couda lineages are compatible with a scenario of species co-existence in more southern locations during the last glacial maximum (LGM) followed by a post-LGM northern dispersal tracking the species optimal thermal, humidity and soil physical conditions. Mismatch analysis indicated a population expansion during the LGM, which corroborates our biogeographic scenario.

Modelling species distributions with presence data from atlases, museum collections and databases is challenging. In this paper, we compare seven procedures to generate pseudoabsence data, which in turn are used to generate GLM-logistic regressed models when reliable absence data are not available. We use pseudo-absences selected randomly or by means of presence-only methods (ENFA and MDE) to model the distribution of a threatened endemic Iberian moth species (Graellsia isabelae). The results show that the pseudo-absence selection method greatly influences the percentage of explained variability, the scores of the accuracy measures and, most importantly, the degree of constraint in the distribution estimated. As we extract pseudo-absences from environmental regions further from the optimum established by presence data, the models generated obtain better accuracy scores, and over-prediction increases. When variables other than environmental ones influence the distribution of the species (i.e., non-equilibrium state) and precise information on absences is non-existent, the random selection of pseudo-absences or their selection from environmental localities similar to those of species presence data generates the most constrained predictive distribution maps, because pseudo-absences can be located within environmentally suitable areas. This study showsthat ifwe do not have reliable absence data, the method of pseudo-absence selection strongly conditions the obtained model, generating different model predictions in the gradient between potential and realized distributions. MEC Project (CGL2004-04309); a Fundacion BBVA project (Diseno de una red de reservas para la proteccion de la Biodiversidad en América del sur Austral utilizando modelos predictivos de distribucion con tax-ones hiperdiversos)

A. M. C. Santos by a Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship (IEF331623 “COMMSTRUCT”), and J. Hortal by a Spanish DGCyT Ramón y Cajal grant., Dune plant assemblages are affected by severe conditions, which makes them excellent models for studying the effects of species interactions and environmental conditions on community structure. We evaluate the relationship between the structure of dune communities, local environmental conditions and the suitability of climatic conditions for their characteristic species. Using data from an extensive survey of xerophytic inland sand dune scrub communities from Portugal – one of the most threatened habitat types of Europe – we identify the main gradients of vegetation composition, the different types of communities and their indicator shrub species. Then, we model the geographical responses of these species to the environment. Soil organic matter, isothermality and the habitat suitability for Stauracanthus genistoides defined the distribution of three shrub communities in the study area.

ISSN 1948‐6596 news and update thesis abstract Applying species distribution modeling for the conservation of Iberian protected invertebrates Rosa Maria Chefaoui PhD Thesis, Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biologia Evolutiva, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, c/ Jose Gutierrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain. e‐mail: rosa.chef@gmail.com; http://www.biogeografia.org/ Abstract. This article outlines the approaches to modeling the distribution of threatened invertebrates using data from atlases, museums and databases. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are useful for esti‐ mating species’ ranges, identifying suitable habitats, and identifying the primary factors affecting species’ distributions. The study tackles the strategies used to obtain SDMs without reliable absence data while exploring their applications for conservation. I examine the conservation status of Copris species and Graellsia isabelae by delimiting their populations and exploring the effectiveness of protected areas. I show that the method of pseudo‐absence selection strongly determines the model obtained, generating different model predictions along the gradient between potential and realized distributions. After assess‐ ing the effects of species’ traits and data characteristics on accuracy, I found that species are modeled more accurately when sample sizes are larger, no matter the technique used. Keywords: Environmental niche modeling, Iberian Peninsula, invertebrates, predictive accuracy, species distribution models The rapid disappearance of habitats and species starkly contrasts the need to conserve biodiversity against our inability to inventory and protect all species individually. Knowledge about biodiversity remains insufficient because many species are still not described (the Linnean Shortfall ; Brown and Lomolino 1998) and the distributions of de‐ scribed species often are inadequately defined (the Wallacean Shortfall ; Lomolino 2004). It is therefore essential to identify threatened species and describe their distributions using approaches that overcome the time and budget constraints of systematic conservation planning. Araujo et al. (2007) demonstrated the need for additional protected areas for the effective conservation of the diversity of plants and verte‐ brates in the Iberian Peninsula. Preliminary data suggest that the existing network of reserves also would be ineffective in representing invertebrate species (Verdu and Galante 2009). Unfortunately, the conservation of invertebrates faces serious challenges due to their high diversity, complex life cycles and difficult taxonomy, among other factors (see New 1998). Geographic Information Systems (GIS) sig‐ nificantly advanced the conservation of endan‐ gered species because they allow us to delimit species’ potential distributions (e.g. Hortal et al. to control their populations (e.g. Davies et al. 2005), to analyze their niche (Peterson et al. 2002), design networks of pro‐ tected areas (e.g. Pearce and Boyce 2006), and to forecast the future (e.g. Hill et al. 2002). Together, the databases taken from atlases, museums and herbaria have emerged as a valuable source of species’ occurrence records (e.g. Elith and Leath‐ wick 2007). Unfortunately, these data from het‐ erogeneous sources may contain errors or have been obtained using a biased sampling pro‐ cedure (Hortal et al. 2007, 2008, Newbold 2010). Besides, they do not usually provide reli‐ able absences needed to perform consistent pre‐ dictive models (Anderson et al. 2003, Lobo et al. 2007), so alternatives have been sought generat‐ ing models based only on presences (Hirzel et al. 2002, Pearce and Boyce 2006), sometimes em‐ ploying pseudo‐absences obtained in different ways (Zaniewski et al. 2002, Engler et al. 2004, frontiers of biogeography 3.3, 2011 — © 2011 the authors; journal compilation © 2011 The International Biogeography Society

Knowing the distribution of endangered species is of substantial importance for conservation. We considered a useful approach for modeling species distribution when managing information from atlases and museums but when absence data is not available. By modeling the distribution for Graellsia isabelae, a threatened moth species, we assessed its current conservation status and identified its most relevant distribution explanatory variables using Geographic Information System and Generalized Linear Models. The distribution model was built from 136 occurrence records and 25 digitized explanatory variables at a 10310 km resolution. Model predictions from logistic-regressed pseudo-absences, obtained from a presence-only method (Ecological-Niche Factor Analysis), explained 96.23% of the total deviance. We found that the best predictor variables were summer precipitation, aridity, and mean elevation. With respect to host plants, the presence of G. isabelae associated mainly with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Austrian pine (P. nigra). The finding of 8 areas, exclusively in the eastern Iberian territory, and a larger unoccupied habitat in the western Iberian Peninsula indicates that this species is probably not in equilibrium with its environment by historical factors. Sites of Community Importance under protection do not seem sufficient to maintain current populations, necessitating the protection of suitable neighboring habitats. Our methodology is useful to manage the conservation status of species for which reliable absence data is not available. It is possible to determine those variables that most affect the distribution of species as well as the potential suitable areas with the purpose of evaluating protected areas, connectivity among populations, and possible reintroductions. Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia Project (CGL20040-04309)