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1. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J., Hill, S., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J., Jetz, W., Johnson, J., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., De Palma, A., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2024
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3. A multi-taxon analysis of European Red Lists reveals major threats to biodiversity

Author

Hochkirch, A., Bilz, M., Ferreira, Catarina Manuel, Danielczak, A., Allen, D., Nieto, A., Rondinini, C., Harding, K., Hilton-Taylor, C., Pollock, C.M., Seddon, M., Vié, J.-C., Alexander, K.N.A., Beech, E., Biscoito, M., Braud, Y., Burfield, I.J., Buzzetti, F.M., Cálix, M., Carpenter, K.E., Chao, N.L., Chobanov, D., Christenhusz, M.J.M., Collette, B.B., Comeros-Raynal, M.T., Cox, N., Craig, M., Cuttelod, A., Darwall, W.R.T., Dodelin, B., Dulvy, N.K., Englefield, E., Fay, M.F., Fettes, N., Freyhof, J., García, S., García Criado, M., Harvey, M., et. al., Hochkirch, A., Bilz, M., Ferreira, Catarina Manuel, Danielczak, A., Allen, D., Nieto, A., Rondinini, C., Harding, K., Hilton-Taylor, C., Pollock, C.M., Seddon, M., Vié, J.-C., Alexander, K.N.A., Beech, E., Biscoito, M., Braud, Y., Burfield, I.J., Buzzetti, F.M., Cálix, M., Carpenter, K.E., Chao, N.L., Chobanov, D., Christenhusz, M.J.M., Collette, B.B., Comeros-Raynal, M.T., Cox, N., Craig, M., Cuttelod, A., Darwall, W.R.T., Dodelin, B., Dulvy, N.K., Englefield, E., Fay, M.F., Fettes, N., Freyhof, J., García, S., García Criado, M., and Harvey, M., et. al.

Abstract

Biodiversity loss is a major global challenge and minimizing extinction rates is the goal of several multilateral environmental agreements. Policy decisions require comprehensive, spatially explicit information on species’ distributions and threats. We present an analysis of the conservation status of 14,669 European terrestrial, freshwater and marine species (ca. 10% of the continental fauna and flora), including all vertebrates and selected groups of invertebrates and plants. Our results reveal that 19% of European species are threatened with extinction, with higher extinction risks for plants (27%) and invertebrates (24%) compared to vertebrates (18%). These numbers exceed recent IPBES (Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) assumptions of extinction risk. Changes in agricultural practices and associated habitat loss, overharvesting, pollution and development are major threats to biodiversity. Maintaining and restoring sustainable land and water use practices is crucial to minimize future biodiversity declines.

Published
2023

4. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y.-J., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., José Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, I., Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Gabriela Palomo, M., Popp, A., Paco Remme, R., Saito, O., Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.

Abstract

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Published
2023
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12. Conserving biodiversity in production landscapes

Author

Wilson, K. A., Meijaard, E., Drummond, S., Grantham, H. S., Boitani, L., Catullo, G., Christie, L., Dennis, R., Dutton, I., Falcucci, A., Maiorano, L., Possingham, H. P., Rondinini, C., Turner, W. R., Venter, O., and Watts, M.

Published
2010

13. Bridging the research-implementation gap in IUCN Red List assessments

Author

Cazalis, V., Di Marco, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Akçakaya, H., González-Suárez, M., Meyer, C., Clausnitzer, V., Böhm, M., Zizka, A., Cardoso, P., Schipper, A.M., Bachman, S.P., Young, B.E., Hoffmann, M., Benítez-López, A., Lucas, P.M., Pettorelli, N., Patoine, G., Pacifici, M., Jörger-Hickfang, T., Brooks, T.M., Rondinini, C., Hill, S.L.L., Visconti, P., Santini, L., Cazalis, V., Di Marco, M., Butchart, S.H.M., Akçakaya, H., González-Suárez, M., Meyer, C., Clausnitzer, V., Böhm, M., Zizka, A., Cardoso, P., Schipper, A.M., Bachman, S.P., Young, B.E., Hoffmann, M., Benítez-López, A., Lucas, P.M., Pettorelli, N., Patoine, G., Pacifici, M., Jörger-Hickfang, T., Brooks, T.M., Rondinini, C., Hill, S.L.L., Visconti, P., and Santini, L.

Published
2022

14. Actions needed to achieve ambitious objectives of net gains in natural ecosystem area by 2030 and beyond

Author

Leadley, P., Obura, D., Archer, E., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Essl, F., Hansen, A., Hashimoto, S., Leclere, D., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Purvis, A., Rondinini, C., Shannon, L., Shen, X., Turak, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Leadley, P., Obura, D., Archer, E., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Essl, F., Hansen, A., Hashimoto, S., Leclere, D., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Purvis, A., Rondinini, C., Shannon, L., Shen, X., Turak, E., Verburg, P.H., and Visconti, P.

Published
2022
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15. Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Author

Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., Xu, J., Leadley, P., Gonzalez, A., Obura, D., Krug, C.B., Londoño-Murcia, M.C., Millette, K.L., Radulovici, A., Rankovic, A., Shannon, L.J., Archer, E., Armah, F.A., Bax, N., Chaudhari, K., Costello, M.J., Dávalos, L.M., Roque, F., DeClerck, F., Dee, L.E., Essl, F., Ferrier, S., Genovesi, P., Guariguata, M.R., Hashimoto, S., Ifejika Speranza, C., Isbell, F., Kok, M., Lavery, S.D., Leclere, D., Loyola, R., Lwasa, S., McGeoch, M., Mori, A.S., Nicholson, E., Ochoa, J.M., Öllerer, K., Polasky, S., Rondinini, C., Schroer, S., Selomane, O., Shen, X., Strassburg, B., Sumaila, U.R., Tittensor, D.P., Turak, E., Urbina, L., Vallejos, M., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Verburg, P.H., Visconti, P., Woodley, S., and Xu, J.

Abstract

Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge.

Published
2022

16. How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?

Author

Bolam, FC, Mair, L, Angelico, M, Brooks, TM, Burgman, M, Hermes, C, Hoffmann, M, Martin, RW, McGowan, PJK, Rodrigues, ASL, Rondinini, C, Westrip, JRS, Wheatley, H, Bedolla-Guzman, Y, Calzada, J, Child, MF, Cranswick, PA, Dickman, CR, Fessl, B, Fisher, DO, Garnett, ST, Groombridge, JJ, Johnson, CN, Kennerley, RJ, King, SRB, Lamoreux, JF, Lees, AC, Lens, L, Mahood, SP, Mallon, DP, Meijaard, E, Mendez-Sanchez, F, Percequillo, AR, Regan, TJ, Renjifo, LM, Rivers, MC, Roach, NS, Roxburgh, L, Safford, RJ, Salaman, P, Squires, T, Vazquez-Dominguez, E, Visconti, P, Woinarski, JCZ, Young, RP, Butchart, SHM, Bolam, FC, Mair, L, Angelico, M, Brooks, TM, Burgman, M, Hermes, C, Hoffmann, M, Martin, RW, McGowan, PJK, Rodrigues, ASL, Rondinini, C, Westrip, JRS, Wheatley, H, Bedolla-Guzman, Y, Calzada, J, Child, MF, Cranswick, PA, Dickman, CR, Fessl, B, Fisher, DO, Garnett, ST, Groombridge, JJ, Johnson, CN, Kennerley, RJ, King, SRB, Lamoreux, JF, Lees, AC, Lens, L, Mahood, SP, Mallon, DP, Meijaard, E, Mendez-Sanchez, F, Percequillo, AR, Regan, TJ, Renjifo, LM, Rivers, MC, Roach, NS, Roxburgh, L, Safford, RJ, Salaman, P, Squires, T, Vazquez-Dominguez, E, Visconti, P, Woinarski, JCZ, Young, RP, and Butchart, SHM

Abstract

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) contains the aim to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure the degree to which this was achieved, we used expert elicitation to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993–2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010–2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation action prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and two to seven mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened and may still become extinct. Considering that 10 bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.

Published
2021

17. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., Pereira, H., Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D., Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C., Scholes, R., Schoolenberg, M., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Stephenson, F., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Wabnitz, C., Alava, J., Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, K., Gasalla, M., Halouani, G., Harfoot, M., Hashimoto, S., Hickler, T., Hirsch, T., Kolomytsev, G., Miller, B., Ohashi, H., Palomo, M., Popp, A., Remme, R., Saito, O., Sumaila, R., Willcock, S., and Pereira, H.

Abstract

The expert group on scenarios and models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services initiated the development of the Nature Futures Framework for developing scenarios of positive futures for nature, to help inform assessments of policy options. This new scenarios and modelling Framework seeks to open up diversity and plurality of perspectives by differentiating three main value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature (intrinsic values of nature), Nature for Society (instrumental values) and Nature as Culture (relational values). This paper describes how the Nature Futures Framework can be applied in modelling to support policy processes by identifying key interventions for change in realizing a diversity of desirable futures. First, the paper introduces and elaborates on key building blocks of the framework for developing qualitative scenarios and translating them into quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the Nature Futures frontier representing diverse preferences, ii) incorporating mutual and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems in Nature Futures scenarios, and iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems with complementary knowledge and data. This paper then presents three possible application approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios to support the i) review, ii) implementation and iii) design phases of policy processes. The main objective of this paper is to facilitate the integration of the relational values of nature in models, through improved indicators and other forms of evidence, and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, ecosystems, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life to identify science- and knowledge-based interventions and to enhance ecological understanding for achieving sustainable futures. The paper aims at stimulating the development of new scenarios and models based on this new framework by a wide c

Published
2021

18. How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?

Author

Bolam, F.C., Mair, L., Angelico, M., Brooks, T.M., Burgman, M., Hermes, C., Hoffmann, M., Martin, R.W., McGowan, P.L.K., Rodrigues, A.S.L., Rondinini, C., Westrip, J.R.S., Wheatley, H., Bedolla-Guzmán, Y., Calzada, J., Child, M.F., Cranswick, P.A., Dickman, C.R., Fessl, B., Fisher, D.O., Garnett, S.T., Groombridge, J.J., Johnson, C.N., Kennerley, R.J., King, S.R.B., Lamoreux, J.F., Lees, A.C., Lens, L., Mahood, S.P., Mallon, D.P., Meijaard, E., Méndez-Sánchez, F., Percequillo, A.R., Regan, T.J., Renjifo, L.M., Rivers, M.C., Roach, N.S., Roxburgh, L., Safford, R.J., Salaman, P., Squires, T., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Visconti, P., Woinarski, J.C.Z., Young, R.P., Butchart, S.H.M., Bolam, F.C., Mair, L., Angelico, M., Brooks, T.M., Burgman, M., Hermes, C., Hoffmann, M., Martin, R.W., McGowan, P.L.K., Rodrigues, A.S.L., Rondinini, C., Westrip, J.R.S., Wheatley, H., Bedolla-Guzmán, Y., Calzada, J., Child, M.F., Cranswick, P.A., Dickman, C.R., Fessl, B., Fisher, D.O., Garnett, S.T., Groombridge, J.J., Johnson, C.N., Kennerley, R.J., King, S.R.B., Lamoreux, J.F., Lees, A.C., Lens, L., Mahood, S.P., Mallon, D.P., Meijaard, E., Méndez-Sánchez, F., Percequillo, A.R., Regan, T.J., Renjifo, L.M., Rivers, M.C., Roach, N.S., Roxburgh, L., Safford, R.J., Salaman, P., Squires, T., Vázquez-Domínguez, E., Visconti, P., Woinarski, J.C.Z., Young, R.P., and Butchart, S.H.M.

Abstract

Aichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) contains the aim to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure the degree to which this was achieved, we used expert elicitation to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993–2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010–2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation action prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and two to seven mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened and may still become extinct. Considering that 10 bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.

Published
2021

19. Biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol production in Brazil

Author

Duden, A. S., Verweij, P. A., Faaij, A. P.C., Baisero, D., Rondinini, C., van der Hilst, F., Duden, A. S., Verweij, P. A., Faaij, A. P.C., Baisero, D., Rondinini, C., and van der Hilst, F.

Abstract

Growing domestic and international ethanol demand is expected to result in increased sugarcane cultivation in Brazil. Sugarcane expansion currently results in land-use changes mainly in the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes, two severely threatened biodiversity hotspots. This study quantifies potential biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol demand in Brazil in a spatially explicit manner. We project changes in potential total, threatened, endemic, and range-restricted mammals' species richness up to 2030. Decreased potential species richness due to increased ethanol demand in 2030 was projected for about 19,000 km2 in the Cerrado, 17,000 km2 in the Atlantic Forest, and 7000 km2 in the Pantanal. In the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, the biodiversity impacts of sugarcane expansion were mainly due to direct land-use change; in the Pantanal, they were largely due to indirect land-use change. The biodiversity impact of increased ethanol demand was projected to be smaller than the impact of other drivers of land-use change. This study provides a first indication of biodiversity impacts related to increased ethanol production in Brazil, which is useful for policy makers and ethanol producers aiming to mitigate impacts. Future research should assess the impact of potential mitigation options, such as nature protection, agroforestry, or agricultural intensification.

Published
2020

20. Post-2020 biodiversity targets need to embrace climate change

Author

Arneth, A., Shin, Y., Leadley, P., Rondinini, C., Bukvareva, E., Kolb, M., Midgley, G.F., Oberdorff, T., Palomo, I., Saito, O., Arneth, A., Shin, Y., Leadley, P., Rondinini, C., Bukvareva, E., Kolb, M., Midgley, G.F., Oberdorff, T., Palomo, I., and Saito, O.

Abstract

Recent assessment reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) have highlighted the risks to humanity arising from the unsustainable use of natural resources. Thus far, land, freshwater, and ocean exploitation have been the chief causes of biodiversity loss. Climate change is projected to be a rapidly increasing additional driver for biodiversity loss. Since climate change and biodiversity loss impact human societies everywhere, bold solutions are required that integrate environmental and societal objectives. As yet, most existing international biodiversity targets have overlooked climate change impacts. At the same time, climate change mitigation measures themselves may harm biodiversity directly. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s post-2020 framework offers the important opportunity to address the interactions between climate change and biodiversity and revise biodiversity targets accordingly by better aligning these with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. We identify the considerable number of existing and proposed post-2020 biodiversity targets that risk being severely compromised due to climate change, even if other barriers to their achievement were removed. Our analysis suggests that the next set of biodiversity targets explicitly addresses climate change-related risks since many aspirational goals will not be feasible under even lower-end projections of future warming. Adopting more flexible and dynamic approaches to conservation, rather than static goals, would allow us to respond flexibly to changes in habitats, genetic resources, species composition, and ecosystem functioning and leverage biodiversity’s capacity to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Published
2020

21. Biodiversity impacts of increased ethanol production in Brazil

Author

Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Energy System Analysis, Biobased Economy, Energy and Resources, Duden, A. S., Verweij, P. A., Faaij, A. P.C., Baisero, D., Rondinini, C., van der Hilst, F., Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Energy System Analysis, Biobased Economy, Energy and Resources, Duden, A. S., Verweij, P. A., Faaij, A. P.C., Baisero, D., Rondinini, C., and van der Hilst, F.

Published
2020

22. Global correlates of range contractions and expansions in terrestrial mammals.

Author

Pacifici, M, Rondinini, C, Rhodes, JR, Burbidge, AA, Cristiano, A, Watson, JEM, Woinarski, JCZ, Di Marco, M, Pacifici, M, Rondinini, C, Rhodes, JR, Burbidge, AA, Cristiano, A, Watson, JEM, Woinarski, JCZ, and Di Marco, M

Abstract

Understanding changes in species distributions is essential to disentangle the mechanisms that drive their responses to anthropogenic habitat modification. Here we analyse the past (1970s) and current (2017) distribution of 204 species of terrestrial non-volant mammals to identify drivers of recent contraction and expansion in their range. We find 106 species lost part of their past range, and 40 of them declined by >50%. The key correlates of this contraction are large body mass, increase in air temperature, loss of natural land, and high human population density. At the same time, 44 species have some expansion in their range, which correlates with small body size, generalist diet, and high reproductive rates. Our findings clearly show that human activity and life history interact to influence range changes in mammals. While the former plays a major role in determining contraction in species' distribution, the latter is important for both contraction and expansion.

Published
2020

23. A global map of terrestrial habitat types

Author

Jung, M., Dahal, P.R., Butchart, S.H.M., Donald, P.F., De Lamo, X., Lesiv, M., Kapos, V., Rondinini, C., Visconti, P., Jung, M., Dahal, P.R., Butchart, S.H.M., Donald, P.F., De Lamo, X., Lesiv, M., Kapos, V., Rondinini, C., and Visconti, P.

Abstract

We provide a global, spatially explicit characterization of 47 terrestrial habitat types, as defined in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) habitat classification scheme, which is widely used in ecological analyses, including for quantifying species’ Area of Habitat. We produced this novel habitat map for the year 2015 by creating a global decision tree that intersects the best currently available global data on land cover, climate and land use. We independently validated the map using occurrence data for 828 species of vertebrates (35152 point plus 8181 polygonal occurrences) and 6026 sampling sites. Across datasets and mapped classes we found on average a balanced accuracy of 0.77 (+¯0.14 SD) at Level 1 and 0.71 (+¯0.15 SD) at Level 2, while noting potential issues of using occurrence records for validation. The maps broaden our understanding of habitats globally, assist in constructing area of habitat refinements and are relevant for broad-scale ecological studies and future IUCN Red List assessments. Periodic updates are planned as better or more recent data becomes available.

Published
2020

24. Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, Alkemade, R., Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, Petr, Hellweg, S., Hilbers, J.P., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Humpenöder, F., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Matsui, T., Meijer, J.R., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Settele, J., Sharp, R., Stehfest, E., Strassburg, B.N.B., Takahashi, K., Talluto, M.V., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F, and Alkemade, R.

Abstract

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2020

25. Set ambitious goals for biodiversity and sustainability

Author

Diaz, S, Zafra-Calvo, N., Purvis, A., Verburg, P. H., Obura, D., Leadley, P., Chaplin-Kramer, R., De Meester, L., Dulloo, E., Martín-López, B., Shaw, M. R., Visconti, P., Broadgate, W., Bruford, M. W., Burgess, N. D., Cavender- Bares, J., DeClerck, F., Fernández-Palacio, J. M., Garibaldi, L. A., Hill, S. L. L., Isbell, F., Khoury, C. K., Krug, C. B, Liu, J., Maron, M., McGowan, P. J. K., Pereira, H. M., Reyes-García, V., Rocha, J., Rondinini, C., Shannon, L., Snelgrove, P. V. R., Shin, Y. J., Speh, E. M., Strassburg, B., Subramanian, S. M., Tewksbury, J. J., Watson, J. E. M., Zanne, A. E., Diaz, S, Zafra-Calvo, N., Purvis, A., Verburg, P. H., Obura, D., Leadley, P., Chaplin-Kramer, R., De Meester, L., Dulloo, E., Martín-López, B., Shaw, M. R., Visconti, P., Broadgate, W., Bruford, M. W., Burgess, N. D., Cavender- Bares, J., DeClerck, F., Fernández-Palacio, J. M., Garibaldi, L. A., Hill, S. L. L., Isbell, F., Khoury, C. K., Krug, C. B, Liu, J., Maron, M., McGowan, P. J. K., Pereira, H. M., Reyes-García, V., Rocha, J., Rondinini, C., Shannon, L., Snelgrove, P. V. R., Shin, Y. J., Speh, E. M., Strassburg, B., Subramanian, S. M., Tewksbury, J. J., Watson, J. E. M., and Zanne, A. E.

Abstract

Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. Recent global assessments of living nature (1, 2) and climate (3) show worsening trends and a rapidly narrowing window for action. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has recently announced that none of the 20 Aichi targets for biodiversity it set in 2010 has been reached and only six have been partially achieved (4). Against this backdrop, nations are now negotiating the next generation of the CBD's global goals [see supplementary materials (SM)], due for adoption in 2021, which will frame actions of governments and other actors for decades to come. In response to the goals proposed in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) made public by the CBD (5), we urge negotiators to consider three points that are critical if the agreed goals are to stabilize or reverse nature's decline. First, multiple goals are required because of nature's complexity, with different facets—genes, populations, species, deep evolutionary history, ecosystems, and their contributions to people—having markedly different geographic distributions and responses to human drivers. Second, interlinkages among these facets mean that goals must be defined and developed holistically rather than in isolation, with potential to advance multiple goals simultaneously and minimize trade-offs between them. Third, only the highest level of ambition in setting each goal, and implementing all goals in an integrated manner, will give a realistic chance of stopping—and beginning to reverse—biodiversity loss by 2050.

Published
2020

26. Set ambitious goals for biodiversity and sustainability

Author

Díaz, S., Zafra-Calvo, N., Purvis, A., Verburg, P.H., Obura, D., Leadley, Paul, Chaplin-Kramer, R., De Meester, L., Dulloo, E., Martín-López, B., Shaw, M.R., Visconti, P., Broadgate, W., Bruford, M.W., Burgess, N.D., Cavender-Bares, J., DeClerck, F., Fernández-Palacios, J.M., Garibaldi, Lucas A., Hill, S.L.L., Isbell, F., Khoury, C.K., Krug, C.B., Liu, J., Maron, Martine, McGowan, P.J.K., Pereira, H.M., Reyes-García, V., Rocha, J., Rondinini, C., Shannon, L., Shin, Y.-J., Snelgrove, P.V.R., Spehn, E.M., Strassburg, B., Subramanian, S.M., Tewksbury, J.J., Watson, J.E.M., Zanne, A.E., Díaz, S., Zafra-Calvo, N., Purvis, A., Verburg, P.H., Obura, D., Leadley, Paul, Chaplin-Kramer, R., De Meester, L., Dulloo, E., Martín-López, B., Shaw, M.R., Visconti, P., Broadgate, W., Bruford, M.W., Burgess, N.D., Cavender-Bares, J., DeClerck, F., Fernández-Palacios, J.M., Garibaldi, Lucas A., Hill, S.L.L., Isbell, F., Khoury, C.K., Krug, C.B., Liu, J., Maron, Martine, McGowan, P.J.K., Pereira, H.M., Reyes-García, V., Rocha, J., Rondinini, C., Shannon, L., Shin, Y.-J., Snelgrove, P.V.R., Spehn, E.M., Strassburg, B., Subramanian, S.M., Tewksbury, J.J., Watson, J.E.M., and Zanne, A.E.

Abstract

Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. Recent global assessments of living nature and climate show worsening trends and a rapidly narrowing window for action. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has recently announced that none of the 20 Aichi targets for biodiversity it set in 2010 has been reached and only six have been partially achieved. Against this backdrop, nations are now negotiating the next generation of the CBD's global goals [see supplementary materials (SM)], due for adoption in 2021, which will frame actions of governments and other actors for decades to come. In response to the goals proposed in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) made public by the CBD (5), we urge negotiators to consider three points that are critical if the agreed goals are to stabilize or reverse nature's decline. First, multiple goals are required because of nature's complexity, with different facets—genes, populations, species, deep evolutionary history, ecosystems, and their contributions to people—having markedly different geographic distributions and responses to human drivers. Second, interlinkages among these facets mean that goals must be defined and developed holistically rather than in isolation, with potential to advance multiple goals simultaneously and minimize trade-offs between them. Third, only the highest level of ambition in setting each goal, and implementing all goals in an integrated manner, will give a realistic chance of stopping—and beginning to reverse—biodiversity loss by 2050.

Published
2020

27. Projected Global Loss of Mammal Habitat Due to Land-Use and Climate Change

Author

Baisero, D., Visconti, P., Pacifici, M., Cimatti, M., Rondinini, C., Baisero, D., Visconti, P., Pacifici, M., Cimatti, M., and Rondinini, C.

Abstract

Human pressure on the environment is driving a global decline of biodiversity. Anticipating whether this trend can be reverted under future scenarios is key to supporting policy decisions. We used the InSiGHTS framework to model the impacts of land-use and climate change on future habitat availability for 2,827 terrestrial mammals at 15 arcmin resolution under five contrasting global scenarios based on combinations of representative concentration pathways and shared socio-economic pathways between 2015 and 2050. Mammal habitat declined globally by 5%–16% depending on the scenario. Africa (with declines up to 25%) and South America were the most affected regions. African insectivores, primates, Australian carnivorous marsupials and marsupial moles, and South American opossums declined the most. Tackling this loss would require a mix of actions across scales, including a global shift toward sustainability, addressing land-use change in sub-Saharan Africa, and helping endemic species track climate change in South America.

Published
2020

30. Applying habitat and population-density models to land-cover time series to inform IUCN Red List assessments

Author

Santini, Luca, Butchart, Stuart H.M., Rondinini, C., Benitez Lopez, A., Hilbers, J.P., Schipper, A.M., Cengic, Mirza, Tobias, Joseph A., Huijbregts, Mark A.J., Santini, Luca, Butchart, Stuart H.M., Rondinini, C., Benitez Lopez, A., Hilbers, J.P., Schipper, A.M., Cengic, Mirza, Tobias, Joseph A., and Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 208147.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)

Published
2019

31. Defining and applying the concept of Favourable Reference Values for species habitats under the EU Birds and Habitats Directives: examples of setting favourable reference values

Author

Agrillo, E., Attorre, F., Boitani, L., Brunner, A., Evans, P., Foppen, R.P.B., Gubbay, S., Kleunen, A. van, Langhout, W., Pacifici, M., Ramirez, I., Rondinini, C., Roomen, M. van, Siepel, H., Swaaij, C.A.M. van, Winter, H.V., Agrillo, E., Attorre, F., Boitani, L., Brunner, A., Evans, P., Foppen, R.P.B., Gubbay, S., Kleunen, A. van, Langhout, W., Pacifici, M., Ramirez, I., Rondinini, C., Roomen, M. van, Siepel, H., Swaaij, C.A.M. van, and Winter, H.V.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 215972.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)

Published
2019

32. Plan S and publishing: reply to Lehtomaki et al. 2019

Author

McCarthy, MA, Burgman, MA, Wei, F, Jarrad, FC, Rondinini, C, Murcia, C, Marsh, HD, Akcakaya, HR, Esler, KJ, Game, ET, Schwartz, MW, McCarthy, MA, Burgman, MA, Wei, F, Jarrad, FC, Rondinini, C, Murcia, C, Marsh, HD, Akcakaya, HR, Esler, KJ, Game, ET, and Schwartz, MW

Published
2019

33. Defining and applying the concept of Favourable Reference Values for species habitats under the EU Birds and Habitats Directives: examples of setting favourable reference values

Author

Bijlsma, R.J., Agrillo, E., Attorre, F., Boitani, L., Brunner, A., Evans, P., Foppen, R.P.B., Gubbay, S., Janssen, J.A.M., Kleunen, A. van, Langhout, W., Pacifici, M., Ramirez, I., Rondinini, C., Roomen, M. van, Siepel, H., Swaaij, C.A.M. van, Winter, H.V., Bijlsma, R.J., Agrillo, E., Attorre, F., Boitani, L., Brunner, A., Evans, P., Foppen, R.P.B., Gubbay, S., Janssen, J.A.M., Kleunen, A. van, Langhout, W., Pacifici, M., Ramirez, I., Rondinini, C., Roomen, M. van, Siepel, H., Swaaij, C.A.M. van, and Winter, H.V.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 215972.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)

Published
2019

34. Defining and applying the concept of Favourable Reference Values for species habitats under the EU Birds and Habitats Directives : technical report

Author

Bijlsma, R.J., Agrillo, E., Attorre, F., Boitani, L., Brunner, A., Evans, P., Foppen, R., Gubbay, S., Janssen, J.A.M., van Kleunen, A., Langhout, W., Noordhuis, R., Pacifici, M., Ramirez, I., Rondinini, C., van Roomen, M., Siepel, H., Winter, H.V., Bijlsma, R.J., Agrillo, E., Attorre, F., Boitani, L., Brunner, A., Evans, P., Foppen, R., Gubbay, S., Janssen, J.A.M., van Kleunen, A., Langhout, W., Noordhuis, R., Pacifici, M., Ramirez, I., Rondinini, C., van Roomen, M., Siepel, H., and Winter, H.V.

Published
2019

35. Report on the workshop ‘Global Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’

Author

Okayasu, S., Schoolenberg, M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Pereira, H., Lundquist, C., Cheung, W., Rondinini, C., Halouani, G., Kim, H.J., Miller, B., Hirsch, T., Abbasov, R., Arneth, A., Diaw, M.C., Eddy, T., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hickler, T., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Johnson, J., Kok, M., Leadly, P., Leclere, D., Navarro, L., Ohashi, H., Peterson, G., Schipper, G., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Visconti, P., van Vuuren, D., Okayasu, S., Schoolenberg, M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Pereira, H., Lundquist, C., Cheung, W., Rondinini, C., Halouani, G., Kim, H.J., Miller, B., Hirsch, T., Abbasov, R., Arneth, A., Diaw, M.C., Eddy, T., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hickler, T., Hill, S., Humpenöder, F., Johnson, J., Kok, M., Leadly, P., Leclere, D., Navarro, L., Ohashi, H., Peterson, G., Schipper, G., Shin, Y., Stehfest, E., Visconti, P., and van Vuuren, D.

Published
2019

37. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Hartfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlik, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclere, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, N., Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Published
2018

38. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author

Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., Pereira, H.M., Kim, H.J., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F., Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Gonzalez, R.E., Gueguen, M., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D., Hasegawa, T., Haverd, V., Havlík, P., Hellweg, S., Hill, S.L.L., Hirata, A., Hoskins, A.J., Janse, J.H., Jetz, W., Johnson, J.A., Krause, A., Leclère, D., Martins, I.S., Matsui, T., Merow, C., Obersteiner, M., Ohashi, H., Poulter, B., Purvis, A., Quesada, B., Rondinini, C., Schipper, A.M., Sharp, R., Takahashi, K., Thuiller, W., Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, P., Ware, C., Wolf, F., and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

Published
2018

39. Setting population targets for mammals using body mass as a predictor of population persistence

Author

Hilbers, J.P., Santini, L., Visconti, P., Schipper, A.M., Pinto, C, Rondinini, C., and Huijbregts, M.A.

Subjects
Mammals, Conservation of Natural Resources, conservation biology, allometry, conservation target, extinction, minimum viable population, pop-ulation viability analysis, wildlife, wildlife management, Population Dynamics, Biodiversity, Animals, GeneralLiterature_REFERENCE(e.g.,dictionaries,encyclopedias,glossaries), Environmental Sciences
Abstract

Conservation planning and biodiversity assessments need quantitative targets to optimize planning options and assess the adequacy of current species protection. However, targets aiming at persistence require population-specific data, which limit their use in favor of fixed and nonspecific targets, likely leading to unequal distribution of conservation efforts among species. We devised a method to derive equitable population targets; that is, quantitative targets of population size that ensure equal probabilities of persistence across a set of species and that can be easily inferred from species-specific traits. In our method, we used models of population dynamics across a range of life-history traits related to species' body mass to estimate minimum viable population targets. We applied our method to a range of body masses of mammals, from 2 g to 3825 kg. The minimum viable population targets decreased asymptotically with increasing body mass and were on the same order of magnitude as minimum viable population estimates from species- and context-specific studies. Our approach provides a compromise between pragmatic, nonspecific population targets and detailed context-specific estimates of population viability for which only limited data are available. It enables a first estimation of species-specific population targets based on a readily available trait and thus allows setting equitable targets for population persistence in large-scale and multispecies conservation assessments and planning.

Published
2017

42. Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

Author

Di Marco, M., Brooks, T., Cuttelod, A., Fishpool, L.D.C., Rondinini, C., Smith, R.J., Bennun, L., Butchart, S.H.M., Ferrier, S., Foppen, R.P.B., Joppa, L., Juffe-Bignoli, D., Knight, A.T., Lamoreux, J.F., Langhammer, P.F., May, I., Possingham, H.P., Visconti, P., Watson, J.E.M., and Woodley, S.

Subjects
Animal Ecology and Physiology
Abstract

Contains fulltext : 163410.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Closed access)

Published
2016

46. Assessing the suitability of diversity metrics to detect biodiversity change

Author

Santini, L., Belmaker, J., Costello, M.J., Pereira, H.M., Rossberg, A.G., Schipper, A.M., Ceaușu, S., Dornelas, M., Hilbers, J.P., Hortal, J., Huijbregts, M.A.J., Navarro, L.M., Schiffers, K.H., Visconti, P., Rondinini, C., Santini, L., Belmaker, J., Costello, M.J., Pereira, H.M., Rossberg, A.G., Schipper, A.M., Ceaușu, S., Dornelas, M., Hilbers, J.P., Hortal, J., Huijbregts, M.A.J., Navarro, L.M., Schiffers, K.H., Visconti, P., and Rondinini, C.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 163377.pdf (publisher's version ) (Closed access)

Published
2017

47. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Author

Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akcakaya, R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A.M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K.A., Harrison, P.A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, R.J.J., Hernández, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H.J., King, N., Kok, M.T.J., Kolomytsev, G.O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C.J., García Márquez, J., Meyer, C., Navarro, L.M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, H.T., Ninan, K.N., Palomo, M.G., Pereira, L.M., Peterson, G.D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A.M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, N., van Vuuren, D., Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Acosta, L.A., Akcakaya, R., den Belder, E., Fazel, A.M., Fujimori, S., Harfoot, M., Harhash, K.A., Harrison, P.A., Hauck, Jennifer, Hendriks, R.J.J., Hernández, G., Jetz, W., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I., Kim, H.J., King, N., Kok, M.T.J., Kolomytsev, G.O., Lazarova, T., Leadley, P., Lundquist, C.J., García Márquez, J., Meyer, C., Navarro, L.M., Nesshöver, Carsten, Ngo, H.T., Ninan, K.N., Palomo, M.G., Pereira, L.M., Peterson, G.D., Pichs, R., Popp, A., Purvis, A., Ravera, F., Rondinini, C., Sathyapalan, J., Schipper, A.M., Seppelt, Ralf, Settele, Josef, Sitas, N., and van Vuuren, D.

Abstract

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Published
2017

48. Assessing the suitability of diversity metrics to detect biodiversity change

Author

European Cooperation in Science and Technology, Santini, L., Belmaker, J., Costello, Mark J., Pereira, Henrique M., Rossberg, A.G., Schipper, A.M., Ceaușuf, SIlvia, Dornelas, María, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hortal, Joaquín, Huijbregts, Mark A.J., Navarro, L.M., Schiffers, Katja H., Visconti, P., Rondinini, C., European Cooperation in Science and Technology, Santini, L., Belmaker, J., Costello, Mark J., Pereira, Henrique M., Rossberg, A.G., Schipper, A.M., Ceaușuf, SIlvia, Dornelas, María, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hortal, Joaquín, Huijbregts, Mark A.J., Navarro, L.M., Schiffers, Katja H., Visconti, P., and Rondinini, C.

Abstract

A large number of diversity metrics are available to study and monitor biodiversity, and their responses to biodiversity changes are not necessarily coherent with each other. The choice of biodiversity metrics may thus strongly affect our interpretation of biodiversity change and, hence, prioritization of resources for conservation. Therefore it is crucial to understand which metrics respond to certain changes, are the most sensitive to change, show consistent responses across different communities, detect early signals of species decline, and are insensitive to demographic stochasticity. Here we generated synthetic communities and simulated changes in their composition according to 9 scenarios of biodiversity change to investigate the behaviour of 12 biodiversity metrics. Metrics showed diverse abilities to detect changes under different scenarios. Sørensen similarity index, arithmetic and geometric mean abundance, and species and functional richness were the most sensitive to community changes. Sørensen similarity index, species richness and geometric abundance showed consistent responses across all simulated communities and scenarios. Sørensen similarity index and geometric mean abundance were able to detect early signals of species decline. Geometric mean abundance, and functional evenness under certain scenarios, had the greatest ability to distinguish directional trends from stochastic changes, but Sørensen similarity index and geometric mean abundance were the only indices to show consistent signals under all replicates and scenarios. Classic abundance-weighted heterogeneity indices (e.g. Shannon index) were insensitive to certain changes or showed misleading responses, and are therefore unsuitable for comparison of biological communities. We therefore suggest that separate metrics of species composition, richness, and abundance should be reported instead of (or in addition to) composite metrics like the Shannon index.

Published
2017

49. Global biodiversity indicators reflect the modeled impacts of protected area policy change

Author

Costelloe, B, Collen, B, Milner-Gulland, EJ, Craigie, ID, McRae, L, Rondinini, C, and Nicholson, E

Subjects
Science & Technology, Biodiversity indicators, Ecology, Biodiversity & Conservation, LIVING PLANET INDEX, population decline, EXTINCTION RISK, TARGET, DECLINES, MD Multidisciplinary, Biodiversity Conservation, POPULATIONS, ABUNDANCE, convention on biological diversity, protected areas, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Red List Index, PROGRESS, SYSTEM
Published
2015

50. Contrasting changes in the abundance and diversity of North American bird assemblages from 1971 to 2010

Author

Schipper, A.M., Belmaker, J., de Miranda, M.D., Navarro, L.M., Böhning-Gaese, K., Costello, M.J., Dornelas, M., Foppen, R.P.B., Hortal, J., Huijbregts, M.A.J., Martín-López, B., Pettorelli, N., Queiroz, C., Rossberg, A.G., Santini, L., Schiffers, K., Steinmann, Z.J.N., Visconti, P., Rondinini, C., Pereira, H.M., Schipper, A.M., Belmaker, J., de Miranda, M.D., Navarro, L.M., Böhning-Gaese, K., Costello, M.J., Dornelas, M., Foppen, R.P.B., Hortal, J., Huijbregts, M.A.J., Martín-López, B., Pettorelli, N., Queiroz, C., Rossberg, A.G., Santini, L., Schiffers, K., Steinmann, Z.J.N., Visconti, P., Rondinini, C., and Pereira, H.M.

Abstract

Contains fulltext : 163382.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)

Published
2016

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