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4. Projections of Changes in Flood Hazard in Two Headwater Catchments of the Vistula in the Context of European-Scale Studies

Author

Romanowicz, Renata J., Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., Meresa, Hadush K., Stoffel, Markus, Krysanova, Valentina, Doroszkiewicz, Joanna, Rowinski, Pawel, Editor-in-chief, Banaszkiewicz, Marek, Series editor, Pempkowiak, Janusz, Series editor, Lewandowski, Marek, Series editor, Sarna, Marek, Series editor, Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., editor, Stoffel, Markus, editor, Niedźwiedź, Tadeusz, editor, and Wyżga, Bartłomiej, editor

Published
2016
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9. Lessons from the 2018-2019 European droughts : a collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, JiÅ™í, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, Van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkov, Aleksandra, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, Van Loon, Anne F., Van Vliet, Michelle T.H., Vidal, Jean Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, Zivković, Nenad, Hydrologie, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Blauhut V., Stoelzle M., Ahopelto L., Brunner M.I., Teutschbein C., Wendt D.E., Akstinas V., Bakke S.J., Barker L.J., Bartosova L., Briede A., Cammalleri C., Kalin K.C., De Stefano L., Fendekova M., Finger D.C., Huysmans M., Ivanov M., Jaagus J., Jakubinsky J., Krakovska S., Laaha G., Lakatos M., Manevski K., Neumann Andersen M., Nikolova N., Osuch M., Van Oel P., Radeva K., Romanowicz R.J., Toth E., Trnka M., Urosev M., Urquijo Reguera J., Sauquet E., Stevkov A., Tallaksen L.M., Trofimova I., Van Loon A.F., Van Vliet M.T.H., Vidal J.-P., Wanders N., Werner M., Willems P., Zivkovic N., University of Freiburg, Department of Built Environment, Uppsala University, University of Birmingham, Lithuanian Energy Institute, University of Oslo, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Czech Academy of Sciences, University of Latvia, European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute, Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Complutense University, Comenius University in Bratislava, Reykjavík University, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Institute of Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro, University of Tartu, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Hungarian Meteorological Service, Aarhus University, Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski, Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Universita di Bologna, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Technical University of Madrid, INRAE, National Hydrometeorological Service, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Utrecht University, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, KU Leuven, University of Belgrade, Aalto-yliopisto, Aalto University, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Water and Climate Risk, Hydrologie, and Landdegradatie en aardobservatie

Subjects
IMPACTS, drought, risk, management, strategy, stakeholders, Europe, Hidrología, media_common.quotation_subject, WATER-RESOURCES, CIRCULATION, Vulnerability, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT, EVENTS, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Short summary: Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach, 11. Sustainability, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Life Science, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Environmental planning, media_common, Science & Technology, WIMEK, Corporate governance, Geology, Directive, Hazard, 6. Clean water, Water Resources Management, Water resources, Geography, Harm, 13. Climate action, Physical Sciences, Water Resources, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Water Systems and Global Change, Psychological resilience, Hydrology, SDG 6 - Clean Water and Sanitation, Diversity (business)
Abstract

Funding Information: This open-access publication was funded by the University of Freiburg. Funding Information: Financial support. The project is supported by the Wassernetzwerk Baden-Württemberg (Water Research Network of the State Baden-Württemberg), which is funded by the Ministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kunst Baden-Württemberg (Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts of the State Baden-Württemberg) (grant no. AZ. 7532.21/2.1.6) and Maa-ja vesitekniikan tuki ry foundation. Doris E. Wendt acknowledges her support as part of the NERC-funded Groundwater Drought Initiative (NE/R004994/1). Lucy J. Barker was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R016429/1) as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability. The contributions of Mirek Trnka, Lenka Bartošová, and Jaak Jaagus have been supported by SustES – Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797). Publisher Copyright: © 2022 Veit Blauhut et al. Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazard severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders' perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability, and current drought management strategies on national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perception across different countries and in values of the implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study identifies an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and mitigate damage to human and natural assets.

Published
2022
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14. Lessons from the 2018-2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Hydrologie, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, JiÅ™í, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, Van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkov, Aleksandra, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, Van Loon, Anne F., Van Vliet, Michelle T.H., Vidal, Jean Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, Zivković, Nenad, Hydrologie, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, JiÅ™í, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, Van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkov, Aleksandra, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, Van Loon, Anne F., Van Vliet, Michelle T.H., Vidal, Jean Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, and Zivković, Nenad

Published
2022

25. Supplementary material to "Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: A collective need for unifying drought risk management"

Author

Blauhut, Veit, primary, Stoelzle, Michael, additional, Ahopelto, Lauri, additional, Brunner, Manuela I., additional, Teutschbein, Claudia, additional, Wendt, Doris E., additional, Akstinas, Vytautas, additional, Bakke, Sigrid J., additional, Barker, Lucy J., additional, Bartošová, Lenka, additional, Briede, Agrita, additional, Cammalleri, Carmelo, additional, De Stefano, Lucia, additional, Fendeková, Miriam, additional, Finger, David C., additional, Huysmans, Marijke, additional, Ivanov, Mirjana, additional, Jaagus, Jaak, additional, Jakubínský, Jiří, additional, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, additional, Krakovska, Svitlana, additional, Laaha, Gregor, additional, Lakatos, Monika, additional, Manevski, Kiril, additional, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, additional, Nikolova, Nina, additional, Osuch, Marzena, additional, van Oel, Pieter, additional, Radeva, Kalina, additional, Romanowicz, Renata J., additional, Toth, Elena, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Urošev, Marko, additional, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, additional, Sauquet, Eric, additional, Stevkova, Silvana, additional, Tallaksen, Lena M., additional, Trofimova, Iryna, additional, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., additional, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, additional, Wanders, Niko, additional, Werner, Micha, additional, Willems, Patrick, additional, and Živković, Nenad, additional

Published
2021
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26. Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: A collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Blauhut, Veit, primary, Stoelzle, Michael, additional, Ahopelto, Lauri, additional, Brunner, Manuela I., additional, Teutschbein, Claudia, additional, Wendt, Doris E., additional, Akstinas, Vytautas, additional, Bakke, Sigrid J., additional, Barker, Lucy J., additional, Bartošová, Lenka, additional, Briede, Agrita, additional, Cammalleri, Carmelo, additional, De Stefano, Lucia, additional, Fendeková, Miriam, additional, Finger, David C., additional, Huysmans, Marijke, additional, Ivanov, Mirjana, additional, Jaagus, Jaak, additional, Jakubínský, Jiří, additional, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, additional, Krakovska, Svitlana, additional, Laaha, Gregor, additional, Lakatos, Monika, additional, Manevski, Kiril, additional, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, additional, Nikolova, Nina, additional, Osuch, Marzena, additional, van Oel, Pieter, additional, Radeva, Kalina, additional, Romanowicz, Renata J., additional, Toth, Elena, additional, Trnka, Mirek, additional, Urošev, Marko, additional, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, additional, Sauquet, Eric, additional, Stevkova, Silvana, additional, Tallaksen, Lena M., additional, Trofimova, Iryna, additional, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., additional, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, additional, Wanders, Niko, additional, Werner, Micha, additional, Willems, Patrick, additional, and Živković, Nenad, additional

Published
2021
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29. Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: A collective need for unifying drought risk management

Author

Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, Jiří, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkova, Silvana, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, Živković, Nenad, Blauhut, Veit, Stoelzle, Michael, Ahopelto, Lauri, Brunner, Manuela I., Teutschbein, Claudia, Wendt, Doris E., Akstinas, Vytautas, Bakke, Sigrid J., Barker, Lucy J., Bartošová, Lenka, Briede, Agrita, Cammalleri, Carmelo, De Stefano, Lucia, Fendeková, Miriam, Finger, David C., Huysmans, Marijke, Ivanov, Mirjana, Jaagus, Jaak, Jakubínský, Jiří, Kalin, Ksenija Cindrić, Krakovska, Svitlana, Laaha, Gregor, Lakatos, Monika, Manevski, Kiril, Neumann Andersen, Mathias, Nikolova, Nina, Osuch, Marzena, van Oel, Pieter, Radeva, Kalina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Toth, Elena, Trnka, Mirek, Urošev, Marko, Urquijo Reguera, Julia, Sauquet, Eric, Stevkova, Silvana, Tallaksen, Lena M., Trofimova, Iryna, van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Wanders, Niko, Werner, Micha, Willems, Patrick, and Živković, Nenad

Abstract

Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazardous severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts, and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders for inducing action. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard and impacts. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders’ perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability and current drought management strategies at national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perceptions across different countries and in values of implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study concludes with an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and lessen harm to human and natural potentials.

Published
2021
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35. Perceiving and managing the 2018 & 2019 droughts in Europe: is there a need for macro-governance in Europe?

Author

Blauhut, Veit, primary, Teutschbein, Claudia, additional, Andersen, Mathias N., additional, Brunner, Manuela, additional, Cammalleri, Carmelo, additional, Cindrić Kalin, Ksenija, additional, Finger, David C., additional, Huysmans, Marijke, additional, Manevski, Kiril, additional, Osuch, Marzena, additional, Romanowicz, Renata J., additional, Stahl, Kerstin, additional, Stoelzle, Michael, additional, Van Loon, Anne F., additional, Van Vliet, Michelle T.H., additional, Wanders, Niko, additional, Vogt, Jürgen, additional, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, additional, and Williams, Patrick, additional

Published
2020
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37. The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective (presentation slides)

Author

Laaha, Gregor, Gauster, Tobias, Tallaksen, Lena M., Jean-Philippe Vidal, Stahl, Kerstin, Ionita, Monica, H. A. J. Van Lanen, Mary-Jeanne Adler, Caillouet, Laurie, Delus, Claire, Fendekova, Miriam, Gailliez, Sébastien, Hannaford, Jamie, Heudorfer, Benedikt, Kingston, Daniel, Loon, Anne F. Van, Mediero, Luis, Osuch, Marzena, Prudhomme, Christel, Romanowicz, Renata J., Sauquet, Eric, Stagge, James H., Vlnas, Radek, and Wong, Wai Kwok

Published
2016
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40. Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case

Author

Van Lanen, Henny A.J., Laaha, Gregor, Kingston, Daniel G., Gauster, Tobias, Ionita, Monica, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Vlnas, Radek, Tallaksen, Lena M., Stahl, Kerstin, Hannaford, Jamie, Delus, Claire, Fendekova, Miriam, Mediero, Luis, Prudhomme, Christel, Rets, Ekaterina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Sebastien, Gailliez, Wong, Wai Kwok, Adler, Mary-Jeanne, Blauhut, Veit, Caillouet, Laurie, Chelcea, Silvia, Frolova, Natalia, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanel, Martin, Haslinger, Klaus, Kireeva, Maria, Osuch, Marzena, Sauquet, Eric, Stagge, James H., Van Loon, Anne F., Van Lanen, Henny A.J., Laaha, Gregor, Kingston, Daniel G., Gauster, Tobias, Ionita, Monica, Vidal, Jean-Philippe, Vlnas, Radek, Tallaksen, Lena M., Stahl, Kerstin, Hannaford, Jamie, Delus, Claire, Fendekova, Miriam, Mediero, Luis, Prudhomme, Christel, Rets, Ekaterina, Romanowicz, Renata J., Sebastien, Gailliez, Wong, Wai Kwok, Adler, Mary-Jeanne, Blauhut, Veit, Caillouet, Laurie, Chelcea, Silvia, Frolova, Natalia, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanel, Martin, Haslinger, Klaus, Kireeva, Maria, Osuch, Marzena, Sauquet, Eric, Stagge, James H., and Van Loon, Anne F.

Abstract

Invited commentary.

Published
2016

44. Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case

Author

Van Lanen, Henny A.J., primary, Laaha, Gregor, additional, Kingston, Daniel G., additional, Gauster, Tobias, additional, Ionita, Monica, additional, Vidal, Jean‐Philippe, additional, Vlnas, Radek, additional, Tallaksen, Lena M., additional, Stahl, Kerstin, additional, Hannaford, Jamie, additional, Delus, Claire, additional, Fendekova, Miriam, additional, Mediero, Luis, additional, Prudhomme, Christel, additional, Rets, Ekaterina, additional, Romanowicz, Renata J., additional, Gailliez, Sébastien, additional, Wong, Wai Kwok, additional, Adler, Mary‐Jeanne, additional, Blauhut, Veit, additional, Caillouet, Laurie, additional, Chelcea, Silvia, additional, Frolova, Natalia, additional, Gudmundsson, Lukas, additional, Hanel, Martin, additional, Haslinger, Klaus, additional, Kireeva, Maria, additional, Osuch, Marzena, additional, Sauquet, Eric, additional, Stagge, James H., additional, and Van Loon, Anne F., additional

Published
2016
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45. Stochastic Flood Forecasting System : The Middle River Vistula Case Study / edited by Renata J. Romanowicz, Marzena Osuch.

Author

Romanowicz, Renata J. editor., Osuch, Marzena. editor., SpringerLink (Online service), Romanowicz, Renata J. editor., Osuch, Marzena. editor., and SpringerLink (Online service)

Abstract

This book presents the novel formulation and development of a Stochastic Flood Forecasting System, using the Middle River Vistula basin in Poland as a case study. The system has a modular structure, including models describing the rainfall-runoff and snow-melt processes for tributary catchments and the transformation of a flood wave within the reach. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the elements of the study system are performed at both the calibration and verification stages. The spatial and temporal variability of catchment land use and river flow regime based on analytical studies and measurements is presented. A lumped parameter approximation to the distributed modelling of river flow is developed for the purpose of flow forecasting. Control System based emulators (Hammerstein-Wiener models) are applied to on-line data assimilation. Medium-range probabilistic weather forecasts (ECMWF) and on-line observations of temperature, precipitation and water levels are used to prolong the forecast lead time. The potential end-users will also benefit from a description of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the study area.

Published
2015

48. A data based mechanistic approach to nonlinear flood routing and adaptive flood level forecasting

Author

Romanowicz, Renata J., Young, Peter C., Beven, Keith J., Pappenberger, Florian, Romanowicz, Renata J., Young, Peter C., Beven, Keith J., and Pappenberger, Florian

Abstract

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed flood inundation models more common. However, problems remain with the application of such models. There are still uncertainties associated with the identifiability of parameters, with the computational burden of calculating distributed estimates of predictive uncertainty, and with the adaptive use of such models for operational, real-time flood inundation forecasting. Moreover, the application of distributed models is complex, costly and requires high degrees of skill. This paper presents an alternative to distributed inundation models for real-time flood forecasting that provides fast and accurate, medium to short-term forecasts. The Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) methodology exploits a State Dependent Parameter (SDP) modelling approach to derive a nonlinear dependence between the water levels measured at gauging stations along the river. The transformation of water levels depends on the relative geometry of the channel cross-sections, without the need to apply rating curve transformations to the discharge. The relationship obtained is used to transform water levels as an input to a linear, on-line, real-time and adaptive stochastic DBM model. The approach provides an estimate of the prediction uncertainties, including allowing for heterescadasticity of the multi-step-ahead forecasting errors. The approach is illustrated using an 80 km reach of the River Severn, in the UK.

Published
2008
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49. A data based mechanistic approach to nonlinear flood routing and adaptive flood level forecasting

Author

Romanowicz, Renata J., Young, Peter C, Beven, Keith J., Pappenberger, Florian, Romanowicz, Renata J., Young, Peter C, Beven, Keith J., and Pappenberger, Florian

Abstract

Operational flood forecasting requires accurate forecasts with a suitable lead time, in order to be able to issue appropriate warnings and take appropriate emergency actions. Recent improvements in both flood plain characterization and computational capabilities have made the use of distributed flood inundation models more common. However, problems remain with the application of such models. There are still uncertainties associated with the identifiability of parameters; with the computational burden of calculating distributed estimates of predictive uncertainty; and with the adaptive use of such models for operational, real-time flood inundation forecasting. Moreover, the application of distributed models is complex, costly and requires high degrees of skill. This paper presents an alternative to distributed inundation models for real-time flood forecasting that provides fast and accurate, medium to short-term forecasts. The Data Based Mechanistic (DBM) methodology exploits a State Dependent Parameter (SDP) modelling approach to derive a nonlinear dependence between the water levels measured at gauging stations along the river. The transformation of water levels depends on the relative geometry of the channel cross-sections, without the need to apply rating curve transformations to the discharge. The relationship obtained is used to transform water levels as an input to a linear, on-line, real-time and adaptive stochastic DBM model. The approach provides an estimate of the prediction uncertainties, including allowing for heterescadasticity of the multi-step-ahead forecasting errors. The approach is illustrated using an 80 km reach of the River Severn, in the UK.

Published
2008

50. The critical role of uncertainty in projections of hydrological Extremes.

Author

Meresa, Hadush K. and Romanowicz, Renata J.

Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the uncertainty in the projections of future hydrological extremes in the BialaTarnowska River basin, south Poland. We follow a multi-model approach based on several climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX initiative, raw and downscaled realizations of catchment precipitation and temperature, and flow simulations derived using the hydrological HBV model. The projections cover the 21st century. Three sources of uncertainty were considered: one related to the hydrological model parameters uncertainty, the second related to climate projection ensemble spread and the third related to the distribution fit. The uncertainty of projected extreme indices related to hydrological model parameters was conditioned on flow observations from the reference period using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach, with separate weighting for high and low flow extremes. Flood quantiles were estimated using Generalize Extreme Value (GEV) distribution at different return periods and were based on two different lengths of the flow time series. The sensitivity analysis based on ANOVA shows that the uncertainty introduced by the HBV model parameters can be larger than the climate model variability and distribution fit uncertainty for the low-flow extremes whilst for the high-flow extremes higher uncertainty is observed from climate models than from hydrological parameter and distribution fit uncertainties. This implies that ignoring one of the three uncertainty sources may cause great risk to future hydrological extreme adaptations and water resource planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016
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