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In the context of Sun-Earth connection of coronal mass ejections and magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), we studied the solar active region (AR) and the magnetic properties of magnetic cloud (MC) event during April 14-15, 2013. We use in-situ observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer and source AR measurements from the Solar Dynamic Observatory. The MCs magnetic structure is reconstructed from the Grad-Shafranov method which reveals a northern component of the axial field with left-handed helicity. The MC invariant axis is highly inclined to the ecliptic plane pointing northward and is rotated by $117^o$ with respect to the source region PIL. The net axial flux and current in the MC are comparatively higher than from the source region. Linear force-free alpha distribution ($10^{-7}-10^{-6}$ m$^{-1}$) at the sigmoid leg matches the range of twist number in the MC of 1-2 AU MFR. The MFR is non-linear force-free with decreasing twist from the axis (9 turns/AU) towards the edge. Therefore Gold-Hoyle (GH) configuration, assuming a constant twist, is more consistent with the MC structure than the Lundquist configuration of increasing twist from the axis to boundary. As an indication to that, the GH configuration yields better fitting to the global trend of in-situ magnetic field components, in terms of rms, than the Lundquist model. These cylindrical configurations improved the MC fitting results when considered the effect of self-similar expansion of MFR. For such twisting behaviour, this study suggests an alternative fitting procedure to better characterise the MC magnetic structure and its source region links., Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, Accepted in ApJ

We present an analysis of the fast coronal mass ejection (CME) of 2012 March 7, which was imaged by both STEREO spacecraft and observed in situ by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind and Mars Express. Based on detected arrivals at four different positions in interplanetary space, it was possible to strongly constrain the kinematics and the shape of the ejection. Using the white-light heliospheric imagery from STEREO-A and B, we derived two different kinematical profiles for the CME by applying the novel constrained self-similar expansion method. In addition, we used a drag-based model to investigate the influence of the ambient solar wind on the CME's propagation. We found that two preceding CMEs heading in different directions disturbed the overall shape of the CME and influenced its propagation behavior. While the Venus-directed segment underwent a gradual deceleration (from ~2700 km/s at 15 R_sun to ~1500 km/s at 154 R_sun), the Earth-directed part showed an abrupt retardation below 35 R_sun (from ~1700 to ~900 km/s). After that, it was propagating with a quasi-constant speed in the wake of a preceding event. Our results highlight the importance of studies concerning the unequal evolution of CMEs. Forecasting can only be improved if conditions in the solar wind are properly taken into account and if attention is also paid to large events preceding the one being studied.

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front- and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to $2700 \: km \: s^{-1}$). We track the CMEs to $34.9 \pm 7.1$ degrees elongation from the Sun with J-maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of $-26.4 \pm 15.3$ hours. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (Fixed-$\Phi$, Harmonic Mean, Self-Similar Expansion), and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is $8.1 \pm 6.3$ hours ($rms$ value of 10.9h). Speeds are consistent to within $284 \pm 288 \: km \: s^{-1}$. Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to $6.1 \pm 5.0$ hours ($rms$ value of 7.9h), and for the speeds to $53 \pm 50 \: km \: s^{-1}$. These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line., Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions (Solar Dynamics Observatory/ Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory) monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degree in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE and ARTEMIS near Earth, and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (~ -100 nT), caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

We present a new approach to combine remote observations and in situ data by STEREO/HI and Wind, respectively, to derive the kinematics and propagation directions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We used two methods, Fixed-Phi and Harmonic Mean, to convert ICME elongations into distance, and constrained the ICME direction such that the ICME distance-time and velocity-time profiles are most consistent with in situ measurements of the arrival time and velocity. The derived velocity-time functions from the Sun to 1 AU for the three events under study (1-6 June 2008, 13-18 February 2009, 3-5 April 2010) do not show strong differences for the two extreme geometrical assumptions of a wide ICME with a circular front (Harmonic Mean) or an ICME of small spatial extent in the ecliptic (Fixed-Phi). Due to the geometrical assumptions, Harmonic Mean delivers the propagation direction further away from the observing spacecraft with a mean difference of ~25 degree.

A goal of the NASA STEREO mission is to study the feasibility of forecasting the direction, arrival time and internal structure of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from a vantage point outside the Sun-Earth line. Through a case study, we discuss the arrival time calculation of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) in the ecliptic plane using data from STEREO/SECCHI at large elongations from the Sun in combination with different geometric assumptions about the ICME front shape (Fixed-\Phi (FP): a point and harmonic Mean (HM): a circle). These forecasting techniques use single-spacecraft imaging data and are based on the assumptions of constant velocity and direction. We show that for the slow (350 km/s) ICME on 2009 February 13-18, observed at quadrature by the two STEREO spacecraft, the results for the arrival time given by the HM approximation are more accurate by 12 hours than those for FP in comparison to in situ observations of solar wind plasma and magnetic field parameters by STEREO/IMPACT/PLASTIC, and by 6 hours for the arrival time at Venus Express (MAG). We propose that the improvement is directly related to the ICME front shape being more accurately described by HM for an ICME with a low inclination of its symmetry axis to the ecliptic. In this case the ICME has to be tracked to > 30{\deg} elongation to get arrival time errors < 5 hours. A newly derived formula for calculating arrival times with the HM method is also useful for a triangulation technique assuming the same geometry., Comment: ApJ, accepted

On 2010 August 1, the northern solar hemisphere underwent significant activity that involved a complex set of active regions near central meridian with, nearby, two large prominences and other more distant active regions. This activity culminated in the eruption of four major coronal mass ejections (CMEs), effects of which were detected at Earth and other solar system bodies. Recognizing the unprecedented wealth of data from the wide range of spacecraft that were available-providing the potential for us to explore methods for CME identification and tracking, and to assess issues regarding onset and planetary impact-we present a comprehensive analysis of this sequence of CMEs.We show that, for three of the four major CMEs, onset is associated with prominence eruption, while the remaining CME appears to be closely associated with a flare. Using instrumentation on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory spacecraft, three of the CMEs could be tracked out to elongations beyond 50◦; their directions and speeds have been determined by various methods, not least to assess their potential for Earth impact. The analysis techniques that can be applied to the other CME, the first to erupt, are more limited since that CME was obscured by the subsequent, much faster event before it had propagated far from the Sun; we discuss the speculation that these two CMEs interact. The consistency of the results, derived from the wide variety of methods applied to such an extraordinarily complete data set, has allowed us to converge on robust interpretations of the CME onsets and their arrivals at 1 AU.