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Validating modeling choices through simulated analyses and quantifying the impact of different systematic effects will form a major computational bottleneck in the preparation for 3$\times$2 analysis with Stage-IV surveys such as Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We can significantly reduce the computational requirements by using machine learning based emulators, which allow us to run fast inference while maintaining the full realism of the data analysis pipeline. In this paper, we use such an emulator to run simulated 3$\times$2 (cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering) analyses for mock LSST-Y1/Y3/Y6/Y10 surveys and study the impact of various systematic effects (galaxy bias, intrinsic alignment, baryonic physics, shear calibration and photo-$z$ uncertainties). Closely following the DESC Science Requirement Document (with several updates) our main findings are: {\it a)} The largest contribution to the `systematic error budget' of LSST 3$\times$2 analysis comes from galaxy bias uncertainties, while the contribution of baryonic and shear calibration uncertainties are significantly less important. {\it b)} Tighter constraints on intrinsic alignment and photo-$z$ parameters can improve cosmological constraints noticeably, which illustrates synergies of LSST and spectroscopic surveys. {\it c)} The scale cuts adopted in the DESC SRD may be too conservative and pushing to smaller scales can increase cosmological information significantly. {\it d)} We investigate the impact of photo-$z$ outliers on 3$\times$2 pt analysis and find that we need to determine the outlier fraction to within $5-10\%$ accuracy to ensure robust cosmological analysis. We caution that these findings depend on analysis choices (parameterizations, priors, scale cuts) and can change for different settings., Comment: 16 pages, 10 Figures, To be submitted to PRD. Comments welcome

The increasing statistical precision of photometric redshift surveys requires improved accuracy of theoretical predictions for large-scale structure observables to obtain unbiased cosmological constraints. In $\Lambda$CDM cosmologies, massive neutrinos stream freely at small cosmological scales, suppressing the small-scale power spectrum. In massive neutrino cosmologies, galaxy bias modeling needs to accurately relate the scale-dependent growth of the underlying matter field to observed galaxy clustering statistics. In this work, we implement a computationally efficient approximation of the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias (NISDB). Through simulated likelihood analyses of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DESY3) and Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1 (LSSTY1) synthetic data that contain an appreciable NISDB, we examine the impact of linear galaxy bias and neutrino mass modeling choices on cosmological parameter inference. We find model misspecification of the NISDB approximation and neutrino mass models to decrease the constraining power of photometric galaxy surveys and cause parameter biases in the cosmological interpretation of future surveys. We quantify these biases and devise mitigation strategies., Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures

We constrain extensions to the $\Lambda$CDM model using measurements from the Dark Energy Survey's first three years of observations and external data. The DES data are the two-point correlation functions of weak gravitational lensing, galaxy clustering, and their cross-correlation. We use simulated data and blind analyses of real data to validate the robustness of our results. In many cases, constraining power is limited by the absence of nonlinear predictions that are reliable at our required precision. The models are: dark energy with a time-dependent equation of state, non-zero spatial curvature, sterile neutrinos, modifications of gravitational physics, and a binned $\sigma_8(z)$ model which serves as a probe of structure growth. For the time-varying dark energy equation of state evaluated at the pivot redshift we find $(w_{\rm p}, w_a)= (-0.99^{+0.28}_{-0.17},-0.9\pm 1.2)$ at 68% confidence with $z_{\rm p}=0.24$ from the DES measurements alone, and $(w_{\rm p}, w_a)= (-1.03^{+0.04}_{-0.03},-0.4^{+0.4}_{-0.3})$ with $z_{\rm p}=0.21$ for the combination of all data considered. Curvature constraints of $\Omega_k=0.0009\pm 0.0017$ and effective relativistic species $N_{\rm eff}=3.10^{+0.15}_{-0.16}$ are dominated by external data. For massive sterile neutrinos, we improve the upper bound on the mass $m_{\rm eff}$ by a factor of three compared to previous analyses, giving 95% limits of $(\Delta N_{\rm eff},m_{\rm eff})\leq (0.28, 0.20\, {\rm eV})$. We also constrain changes to the lensing and Poisson equations controlled by functions $\Sigma(k,z) = \Sigma_0 \Omega_{\Lambda}(z)/\Omega_{\Lambda,0}$ and $\mu(k,z)=\mu_0 \Omega_{\Lambda}(z)/\Omega_{\Lambda,0}$ respectively to $\Sigma_0=0.6^{+0.4}_{-0.5}$ from DES alone and $(\Sigma_0,\mu_0)=(0.04\pm 0.05,0.08^{+0.21}_{-0.19})$ for the combination of all data. Overall, we find no significant evidence for physics beyond $\Lambda$CDM., Comment: Updated to match published version and fix a citation reference. 46 pages, 25 figures, data available at https://dev.des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/y3a2/Y3key-extensions

This paper details the modeling pipeline and validates the baseline analysis choices of the DES Year 3 joint analysis of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (a so-called "3$\times$2pt" analysis). These analysis choices include the specific combination of cosmological probes, priors on cosmological and systematics parameters, model parameterizations for systematic effects and related approximations, and angular scales where the model assumptions are validated. We run a large number of simulated likelihood analyses using synthetic data vectors to test the robustness of our baseline analysis. We demonstrate that the DES Year 3 modeling pipeline, including the calibrated scale cuts, is sufficiently accurate relative to the constraining power of the DES Year 3 analyses. Our systematics mitigation strategy accounts for astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic alignments, source and lens magnification, baryonic effects, and source clustering, as well as for uncertainties in modeling the matter power spectrum, reduced shear, and estimator effects. We further demonstrate excellent agreement between two independently-developed modeling pipelines, and thus rule out any residual uncertainties due to the numerical implementation., Comment: part of the DES year-3 combined 2-point function analysis; see https://www.darkenergysurvey.org/des-year-3-cosmology-results-papers/ for the full DES Y3 cosmology release

Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of concordance/discordance requires additional information. The most commonly adopted metric, the Jeffreys scale, can falsely suggest agreement between datasets when priors are chosen to be sufficiently wide. In this work, we examine evidence ratios in a DES-Y1 simulated analysis, focusing on the internal consistency between weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We study two scenarios using simulated data in controlled experiments. First, we calibrate the expected evidence ratio distribution given noise realizations around the best fit DES-Y1 $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Second, we show the behavior of evidence ratios for noiseless fiducial data vectors simulated using a modified gravity model, which generates internal tension in the $\Lambda$CDM analysis. We show that the choice of prior could conceal the discrepancies between weak lensing and galaxy clustering induced by such models and that the evidence ratio in a DES-Y1 study is, indeed, biased towards agreement., Comment: 19 figures

We explore synergies between the space-based Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) and the ground-based Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In particular, we consider a scenario where the currently envisioned survey strategy for WFIRST's High Latitude Survey (HLS), i.e., 2000 square degrees in four narrow photometric bands is altered in favor of a strategy that combines rapid coverage of the LSST area (to full LSST depth) in one band. We find that a 5-month WFIRST survey in the W-band can cover the full LSST survey area providing high-resolution imaging for >95% of the LSST Year 10 gold galaxy sample. We explore a second, more ambitious scenario where WFIRST spends 1.5 years covering the LSST area. For this second scenario we quantify the constraining power on dark energy equation of state parameters from a joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analysis, and compare it to an LSST-only survey and to the Reference WFIRST HLS survey. Our survey simulations are based on the WFIRST exposure time calculator and redshift distributions from the CANDELS catalog. Our statistical uncertainties account for higher-order correlations of the density field, and we include a wide range of systematic effects, such as uncertainties in shape and redshift measurements, and modeling uncertainties of astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic galaxy alignment, and baryonic physics. Assuming the 5-month WFIRST wide scenario, we find a significant increase in constraining power for the joint LSST+WFIRST wide survey compared to LSST Y10 (FoM(Wwide)= 2.4 FoM(LSST)) and compared to LSST+WFIRST HLS (FoM(Wwide)= 5.5 FoM(HLS))., Comment: added references, comments welcome