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Extreme political populism has been fiercely spreading climate disinformation for years, contributing to a social divide about climate change. In order to profile how both sides of the climate divide communicate climate change, we collected dissemination materials and analysed the mindset of key actors reaching global audiences. We apply network science to textual content in order to reconstruct and analyse the mindsets of key actors across the climate divide. Here, we show that the emerging mindsets support the identification of emotional patterns – such as hypercritical scepticism masking falsehoods under a trustful promotion of change – linked to a quick and pervasive spread of falsehoods, i.e. an infodemic. We find that, in climate change disinformation, the word “climate” represents a fearsome threat linked to inconsistent science. We show that the word “change” represents a reassuring pattern in climate disinformation, characterised by trust and by low anticipation without risk awareness, except for some fear about policy changes. For climate activism, the word “change” is linked to high levels of negative emotions like anger, disgust, and fear related to a perception of existential threats. Furthermore, the word “children” represents an angering concern in climate disinformation, while climate change activism perceives “children” with trust and joy but also sadness for their anticipated future. Mindset reconstruction has the potential to become a relevant tool for identifying and flagging communication materials linked to disinformation, which amplifies the climate divide and facilitates infodemics.

Constraints and limits to adaptation are critical to understanding the extent to which human and natural systems can successfully adapt to climate change. We conduct a systematic review of 1,682 academic studies on human adaptation responses to identify patterns in constraints and limits to adaptation for different regions, sectors, hazards, adaptation response types, and actors. Using definitions of constraints and limits provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we find that most literature identifies constraints to adaptation but that there is limited literature focused on limits to adaptation. Central and South America and Small Islands generally report greater constraints and both hard and soft limits to adaptation. Technological, infrastructural, and ecosystem-based adaptation suggest more evidence of constraints and hard limits than other types of responses. Individuals and households face economic and socio-cultural constraints which also inhibit behavioral adaptation responses and may lead to limits. Finance, governance, institutional, and policy constraints are most prevalent globally. These findings provide early signposts for boundaries of human adaptation and are of high relevance for guiding proactive adaptation financing and governance from local to global scales.

Decision-makers need tailored information regarding future climate, land use, forest management and societal scenarios for sustainable watershed management. Such information can be attained by integrating the water-energy-land nexus approach with climate services. To support decision-makers from Brașov metropolitan area (Romania), we co-developed land use, forest management and societal scenarios and analysed their impact on the water-energy-land nexus under climate change. We applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Săcele reservoir from the Tărlung river basin in order to spot the interrelations between nexus components under different climate and societal scenarios. In particular, we applied four bias-corrected GCM & RCM model combinations for two climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, nine land use and forest management scenarios, and twelve societal scenarios. Modelling results were analysed between 2020 and 2099. The results for the study area indicate that the projected average annual precipitation is close to historical averages in most climate scenarios explored, while the projected average annual temperature is increasing. Furthermore, the analysed data suggest an increase in severe dry intervals from approximately 6% (for the period 1961–2013) to 12% by the end of the 21st century, indicating that precipitation variability may change considerably. The SWAT model results show no significant changes in the water flow under different forest management scenarios. In contrast, model results for scenarios that imply forests' clearcutting and their replacement with pastures or meadows indicate that water quality is affected by increased sediment flow. Regarding the number of months with water scarcity in the Săcele reservoir (i.e. water demand exceeds water supply), we found an increase from 0.4 months in 2020 to 1.5 months in 2099. The model results also revealed that climate change significantly influences the water supply in the reservoir. To conclude, the regional stakeholders highly value the model results for the co-developed scenarios, which have been already used to promote sustainable resource management.

Reducing the electricity consumption of buildings is an important lever in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, for privacy and other reasons, there is a lack of data on building electricity consumption. As a consequence, data-driven tools that support decision-makers in this area are scarce. To address this problem, we present an innovative approach to modeling building electricity consumption that relies exclusively on publicly available aerial and street view images. We evaluate our approach in a case study based on real world data from Gainesville, Florida. The results show that our model can predict electricity consumption about as well as conventional models, which are trained on commonly used features that are typically not publicly available at a large scale. Furthermore, our model achieves 68% of the potential accuracy improvements of a model that relies on an extensive set of fine-grained tabular features. Spatially aggregating the predictions from the level of buildings to areas of up to 1km 2 further improves the results.

The 2015 Paris Agreement is falling short of its aspirations, as signatory countries are struggling to implement the policies required to meet the targets. The global scenario framework formed by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) places little emphasis on the dynamics of climate policy implementation. Social science approaches to understanding these dynamics are not well-integrated into climate scenario research. We apply an implementation research approach to analyse the transition to clean energy in the US and China, as well as two examples from Europe–Germany and Spain–which have shown markedly diverging implementation trajectories. We propose four implementation scenarios (ISs) for clean energy worldwide which relate to different configurations of actors in the policy system. These are: (1) Civil Society Takes Control (IS1)–where ideologically opposed governments are marginalised by citizens and forward-thinking investors; (2) Strong-arm Transition (IS2)–where a single party state drives the transition without the involvement of civil society; (3) Systemic Limits (IS3)–which highlights the need to focus on the whole energy system, not just renewables; and (4) Renewable Austerity (IS4)–where an economic downturn offers powerful anti-transition actors the opportunity to advocate removal of support for climate mitigation, as they did after the 2007–2008 financial crisis. This scenario could be repeated as countries seek to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. Our study offers a framework for structured analysis of real-world constraints faced by implementing actors, which we argue is urgently needed to help national and international policy makers achieve climate goals. Key policy insights The world is struggling to implement the Paris Agreement, partly because the complex dynamics of climate policy implementation are poorly understood. Social science approaches to understanding these dynamics are not well-integrated into climate scenario research. Implementation research focussing on the actors and context provides a useful framework for analysis of implementation efforts from major global carbon emitters. The approach offers new and distinctive scenario narratives that go beyond Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These new scenarios can help policy makers evaluate likely outcomes of climate policy implementation based on information about actors and context. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

In recent decades, rapid economic growth and urbanization have driven significant livelihood transitions in rural China, which raised diverse climate and environmental impacts. This study investigated the impacts of such livelihood transitions on rural households’ carbon footprint at the Three Gorges Reservoir area in West China during the period of 1978–2016. By random sampling surveys, a total of 422 households were interviewed in September 2016 and March 2017. Our results show that: 1) The vast majority of households shifted their livelihood strategies from pure agriculture to industry and/or commerce. 2) Household incomes generally became more diverse and were increasingly generated from non-agricultural sectors. 3) Changes of the carbon footprint of the surveyed households indicated a significant transformation from net carbon emission (1494.789 tons) in 1978 to net carbon sequestration (2631.85 tons) in 2016, which was contributed mainly by general shifts of rural livelihood styles and government policies (e.g. the Grain for Green policy). Accordingly, to promote a low-carbon rural development at the study area and possibly beyond, we suggest political strategies to encourage voluntary and flexible farmland utilization, promote capital investments in agriculture mechanization, improve rural infrastructures, upscaling agricultural technical training, and continue and specialize the “Grain for Green” policy at suitable locations.

South-east Spain is a drought prone area, characterized by climate variability and water scarcity. The Jucar River Basin, located in Eastern Spain, has suffered many historical droughts with significant socio-economic impacts. For nearly a hundred years, the institutional and non-institutional strategies to cope with droughts have been successful through the development of institutions and partnerships for drought management including multiple actors. In this paper, we show how the creation and institutionalisation of Multi-Sector Partnerships (MSPs) has supported the development of an efficient drought management. Furthermore, we analyze the performance of one of the suggested instruments by the partnership related to drought management in the basin. Two methodologies are used for these purposes. On one hand, the Capital Approach Framework to analyze the effectiveness of the governance processes in a particular partnership (Permanent Drought Commission), which aims to highlight the governance strength and weakness of the MSP for enhancing drought management in the Jucar River Basin. Through a dynamic analysis of the changes that the partnership has undergone over time to successfully deal with droughts, its effectiveness on drought management is demonstrated. On the other hand, an econometric approach is used to analyze the economic efficiency of the emergency drought wells as one of the key drought mitigation measures suggested by the Permanent Drought Commission and implemented. The results demonstrate the potential and efficiency of applying drought wells as mitigation measures (significant reduction of economic losses, around 50 M€ during the drought period, 2005–2008).

To design smart cities or communities, it is important to realize good practices and integrated concepts related to smart buildings, mobility, and their interactions. Emerging information technologies, as well as those already implemented in cities, are driving significant change on people, communities, and living environments. In this chapter, we illustrate various existing ambitious projects on smart buildings (Vancouver, Canada), smart mobility (Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and Vienna, Austria), climate-smart city design (Riga, Latvia), and building and mobility integrated spatiotemporally detail urban carbon mapping (Tokyo, Japan).

The human species has been recognized as a new force that has pushed the Earth's system into a new geological epoch referred to as the Anthropocene. This human influence was not conscious, however, but an unintended effect of the consumption of fossil-fuels over the last 150 years. Do we, humans, have the agency to deliberately influence the fate of our species and the planet we inhabit? The rational choice paradigm that dominated social sciences in the 20th Century, and has heavily influenced the conceptualization of human societies in global human-environmental system modelling in the early 21st Century, suggests a very limited view of human agency. Humans seen as rational agents, coordinated through market forces, have only a very weak influence on the system rules. In this article we explore alternative concepts of human agency that emphasize its collective and strategic dimensions as well as we ask how human agency is distributed within the society. We also explore the concept of social structure as a manifestation of, and a constraint on, human agency. We discuss the implications for conceptualization of human agency in integrated assessment modelling efforts.

The water-energy-land nexus requires long-sighted approaches that help avoid maladaptive pathways to ensure its promise to deliver insights and tools that improve policy-making. Climate services can form the foundation to avoid myopia in nexus studies by providing information about how climate change will alter the balance of nexus resources and the nature of their interactions. Nexus studies can help climate services by providing information about the implications of climate-informed decisions for other economic sectors across nexus resources. First-of-its-kind guidance is provided to combine nexus studies and climate services. The guidance consists of ten principles and a visual guide, which are discussed together with questions to compare diverse case studies and with examples to support the application of the principles.

Citizen-driven Renewable Energy (RE) projects of various kinds, known collectively as community energy (CE), have an important part to play in the worldwide transition to cleaner energy systems. On the basis of evidence from 8 European countries, we investigate CE, over approximately the last 50 years (c.1970–2018), through the lens of Social Innovation (SI). We carry out a detailed review of literature around the social dimension of renewable energy; we collect, describe and map CE initiatives from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK; and we unpack the SI concept into 4 operational criteria which we suggest are essential to recognizing SI in CE. These are: (1) Crises and opportunities; (2) the agency of civil society; (3) reconfiguration of social practices, institutions and networks; (4) new ways of working. We identify three main phases of SI in CE. The environmental movements of the 1960s and the “oil shocks” of the 1970s provided the catalyst for a series of innovative societal responses around energy and self-sufficiency. A second wave of SI relates to the mainstreaming of RE and associated government support mechanisms. In this phase, with some important exceptions, successful CE initiatives were mainly confined to those countries where they were already embedded as innovators in the previous phase. The third phase of CE innovation relates to the societal response to the Great Recession that began in 2008 and lasted most of the subsequent decade. CE initiatives formed around this time were also strongly focused around democratization of energy and citizen empowerment in the context of rising energy prices, a weak economy, and a production and supply system dominated by excessively powerful multinational energy firms. CE initiatives today are more diverse than at any time previously, and are likely to continue to act as incubators for pioneering initiatives addressing virtually all aspects of energy. However, large multinational energy firms remain the dominant vehicle for delivery of the energy transition, and the apparent excitement in European policy circles for “community energy” does not extend to democratization of energy or genuine empowerment of citizens.

Cities are fundamental to climate change mitigation, and although there is increasing understanding about the relationship between emissions and urban form, this relationship has not been used to provide planning advice for urban land use so far. Here we present the Integrated Urban Complexity model (IUCm 1.0) that computes “climate-smart urban forms”, which are able to cut emissions related to energy consumption from urban mobility in half. Furthermore, we show the complex features that go beyond the normal debates about urban sprawl vs. compactness. Our results show how to reinforce fractal hierarchies and population density clusters within climate risk constraints to significantly decrease the energy consumption of urban mobility. The new model that we present aims to produce new advice about how cities can combat climate change.

© 2015, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. Understanding how the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can differ spatially has practical significance to sustainable management of agricultural systems worldwide. Accordingly, this study developed a conceptual framework to assess the agricultural vulnerability of 243 rural counties on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Indicators representing the climate/agriculture interface were selected to describe exposure and sensitivity, while stocks of certain capitals were used to describe adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index for each county was calculated and the spatial distribution was mapped. Results showed that exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity occur independently, with most contributing indicator values concentrated in a narrow range after normalization. Within the 49 most vulnerable counties, which together encompass 81 % of the vulnerability index range, 42 were characterized by high exposure and sensitivity but low adaptive capacity. The most vulnerable area was found to be located in the central northeast–southwest belt of Loess Plateau. Adaptation measures for both ecological restoration and economic development are needed and potential adaptation options need further investigation.

International audience; Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

An increasing number of world regions is expected to become chronically short of water in future climate scenarios, even if there is no global water scarcity as such (Hejazi et al. 2014; Arnell 2004; Vörösmarty et al. 2000). The main factors are structural inequalities, a blatant lack of comprehensive and efficient water management in places that are already suffering from water stress, as well as a global water use that is growing at more than twice the rate of the population increase in the last century. The impacts of these dynamics will inevitably vary for different individuals and segments of society, with gender often playing a major, but not the only, role in mediating needs, vulnerabilities and access to coping strategies.

Significance Achieving a rapid global decarbonization to stabilize the climate critically depends on activating contagious and fast-spreading processes of social and technological change within the next few years. Drawing on expert elicitation, an expert workshop, and a review of literature, which provides a comprehensive analysis on this topic, we propose concrete interventions to induce positive social tipping dynamics and a rapid global transformation to carbon-neutral societies. These social tipping interventions comprise removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation, building carbon-neutral cities, divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels, revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels, strengthening climate education and engagement, and disclosing greenhouse gas emissions information., Safely achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement requires a worldwide transformation to carbon-neutral societies within the next 30 y. Accelerated technological progress and policy implementations are required to deliver emissions reductions at rates sufficiently fast to avoid crossing dangerous tipping points in the Earth’s climate system. Here, we discuss and evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) that can activate contagious processes of rapidly spreading technologies, behaviors, social norms, and structural reorganization within their functional domains that we refer to as social tipping elements (STEs). STEs are subdomains of the planetary socioeconomic system where the required disruptive change may take place and lead to a sufficiently fast reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The results are based on online expert elicitation, a subsequent expert workshop, and a literature review. The STIs that could trigger the tipping of STE subsystems include 1) removing fossil-fuel subsidies and incentivizing decentralized energy generation (STE1, energy production and storage systems), 2) building carbon-neutral cities (STE2, human settlements), 3) divesting from assets linked to fossil fuels (STE3, financial markets), 4) revealing the moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4, norms and value systems), 5) strengthening climate education and engagement (STE5, education system), and 6) disclosing information on greenhouse gas emissions (STE6, information feedbacks). Our research reveals important areas of focus for larger-scale empirical and modeling efforts to better understand the potentials of harnessing social tipping dynamics for climate change mitigation.

Global change caused by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission has become a common concern of the international community. As the largest emitter of GHGs and the second largest irrigator in the world, a clear understanding of how much GHG is emitted from irrigation in China is of great importance. But no previous studies address this question. So based on Chinese official statistical data, this study estimates GHG emissions from agricultural irrigation in order to inform strategies for reasonable use of water resources and emission reduction. The study finds that in 2010 the total carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent (CO2-e) emission from agricultural irrigation is 36.72~54.16 Mt. Emissions from energy activities in irrigation (including water pumping and conveyance) account for 50 % ~ 70 % of total emissions from energy activities in the agriculture sector. Ground water pumping is the biggest emission source, accounting for 60.97 % of total irrigation emissions. Given the extent of global ground water over exploitation, balancing conservation and exploitation of ground water resources is very important to both emission reduction and sustainable development. The GHG emission intensity of irrigation depends largely on water use efficiency, so improvement of water use efficiency (both technical and managerial) can be an effective way to reduce emissions. Enhanced overall management of water utilization, balanced exploitation of water resources to avoid excessive ground water consumption, and active promotion of water use efficiency can contribute to reducing GHG emissions and pressure on water resources and advance sustainable agricultural production.

The challenges China faces in terms of water availability in the agricultural sector are exacerbated by the sector's low irrigation efficiency. To increase irrigation efficiency, promoting modern irrigation technology has been emphasized by policy makers in the country. The overall goal of this paper is to understand the effect of governmental support and economic incentives on the adoption of modern irrigation technology in China, with a focus on household-based irrigation technology and community-based irrigation technology. Based on a unique data set collected at household and village levels from seven provinces, the results indicated that household-based irrigation technology has become noticeable in almost every Chinese village. In contrast, only about half of Chinese villages have adopted community-based irrigation technology. Despite the relatively high adoption level of household-based irrigation technology at the village level, its actual adoption in crop sown areas was not high, even lower for community-based irrigation technology. The econometric analysis results revealed that governmental support instruments like subsidies and extension services policies have played an important role in promoting the adoption of modern irrigation technology. Strikingly, the present irrigation pricing policy has played a significant but contradictory role in promoting the adoption of different types of modern irrigation technology. Irrigation pricing showed a positive impact on household-based irrigation technology, and a negative impact on community-based irrigation technology, possibly related to the substitution effect that is, the higher rate of adoption of household-based irrigation technology leads to lower incentives for investment in community-based irrigation technology. The paper finally concludes and discusses some policy implications.

Multi-actor integrated assessment models based on well-being concepts beyond GDP could support policymakers by highlighting the interrelation of climate change mitigation and other important societal problems.

The development of human civilisations has occurred at a time of stable climate. This climate stability is now threatened by human activity. The rising global climate risk occurs at a decisive moment for world development. World nations are currently discussing a global development agenda consequent to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which ends in 2015. It is increasingly possible to envisage a world where absolute poverty is largely eradicated within one generation and where ambitious goals on universal access and equal opportunities for dignified lives are adopted. These grand aspirations for a world population approaching or even exceeding nine billion in 2050 is threatened by substantial global environmental risks and by rising inequality. Research shows that development gains, in both rich and poor nations, can be undermined by social, economic and ecological problems caused by human-induced global environmental change. Climate risks, and associated changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems that regulate the resilience of the climate system, are at the forefront of these global risks. We, as citizens with a strong engagement in Earth system science and socio-ecological dynamics, share the vision of a more equitable and prosperous future for the world, yet we also see threats to this future from shifts in climate and environmental processes. Without collaborative action now, our shared Earth system may not be able to sustainably support a large proportion of humanity in the decades ahead.

Climate change is likely to increase droughts. The vulnerability of cities to droughts is increasing worldwide. Policy responses from cities to droughts lack consideration of long-term climatic and socio-economic scenarios, and focus on short-term emergency actions that disregard sustainability in the connected regional and river basin systems. We aim to explore the dynamics of the water-energy-land nexus in urban systems suffering increased climate change-related droughts, and their implications for sustainability. We complement a case study with a literature review providing cross-regional insights, and detail pervasive knowledge, policy and ambition gaps in the interaction between cities and droughts. We show that water availability with low emissions, without compromising ecosystems and with low costs to society, poses a local-scale limit to sustainable urban growth, a new concept delineating the limits to growth in cities. We conclude that urban and river basin planners need to institutionalize transparency and cross-sectoral integration in multi-sector partnerships, to consider long-term land use planning together with water and energy, and to apply integrated climate services to cities. Our study reveals the importance of including land, water and energy in long-term urban planning, and to connect them with the county, region, river basin and global scales.