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The Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the role that clouds and convective activity play in determining cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, the state of convective aggregation, and the equilibrium climate. RCEMIP is unique among intercomparisons in its inclusion of a wide range of model types, including atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), single column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), large eddy simulations (LES), and global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs). The first results are presented from the RCEMIP ensemble of more than 30 models. While there are large differences across the RCEMIP ensemble in the representation of mean profiles of temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models anvil clouds rise, warm, and decrease in area coverage in response to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). Nearly all models exhibit self-aggregation in large domains and agree that self-aggregation acts to dry and warm the troposphere, reduce high cloudiness, and increase cooling to space. The degree of self-aggregation exhibits no clear tendency with warming. There is a wide range of climate sensitivities, but models with parameterized convection tend to have lower climate sensitivities than models with explicit convection. In models with parameterized convection, aggregated simulations have lower climate sensitivities than unaggregated simulations.

The impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) emitted in central Africa on the tropical African climate is studied using the ocean–atmosphere global climate model CNRM-CM, including prognostic aerosols. The direct BBA forcing, cloud feedbacks (semi-direct effects), effects on surface solar radiation, atmospheric dynamics and precipitation are analysed for the 1990–2014 period. During the June–July–August (JJA) season, the CNRM-CM simulations reveal a BBA semi-direct effect exerted on low-level clouds with an increase in the cloud fraction of ∼5 %–10 % over a large part of the tropical ocean. The positive effect of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds is found to be mainly due to the sea surface temperature response (decrease of ∼0.5 K) associated with solar heating at 700 hPa, which increases the lower-tropospheric stability. Over land, results also indicate a positive effect of BBA on the low-cloud fraction, especially for the coastal regions of Gabon and Angola, with a potentially enhanced impact in these coupled simulations that integrates the response (cooling) of the sea surface temperature (SST). In addition to the BBA radiative effect on SST, the ocean–atmosphere coupled simulations highlight that the oceanic temperature response is noticeable (about -0.2 to -0.4 K) down to ∼80 m depth in JJA between the African coast and 10° W. In parallel to low-level clouds, reductions of ∼5 %–10 % are obtained for mid-level clouds over central Africa, mainly due to BBA-induced surface cooling and lower-tropospheric heating inhibiting convection. In terms of cloud optical properties, the BBA radiative effects induced an increase in the optical depth of about ∼2 –3 over the ocean south of the Equator. The result of the BBA direct effect and feedback on tropical clouds modulates the surface solar radiation over the whole of tropical Africa. The strongest surface dimming is over central Africa (∼-30 W m−2), leading to a large reduction in the continental surface temperature (by ∼1 to 2 K), but the solar radiation at the oceanic surface is also affected up to the Brazilian coast. With respect to the hydrological cycle, the CNRM-CM simulations show a negative effect on precipitation over the western African coast, with a decrease of ∼1 to 2 mm d−1. This study also highlights a persistent impact of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds (increase in cloud fraction, liquid water content and optical depth) during the September–October–November (SON) period, mainly explained by a residual cooling of sea surface temperature over most of the tropical ocean. In SON, the effect on precipitation is mainly simulated over the Gulf of Guinea, with a reduction of ∼1 mm d−1. As for JJA, the analysis clearly highlights the important role of the slow response of the ocean in SON and confirms the need to use coupled modelling platforms to study the impact of BBA on the tropical African climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to their severity and lack of predictability, understanding and forecasting extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is critical for disaster risk reduction. The present work documents the large‐scale environment of tropical EPEs based on a 42‐year data set combining dense rain‐gauge networks that cover several tropical small islands and coastal regions. Approximately 10%–30% of EPEs are associated with a tropical storm or cyclone (TC), except for Reunion, for which its high topography makes it reach 55%. TCs multiply the EPE probability by a factor of 4–15, especially during TCs of category 1 or higher. A composite analysis demonstrates that the remaining large part of EPEs occurs within large‐scale and strong moist, convective, and cyclonic wind anomalies resulting from the superimposition of intraseasonal, seasonal‐to‐annual, and interannual timescales. These intense anomalies come essentially from intraseasonal variability, and lower frequencies improve the effect of intraseasonal events in creating a favorable environment for EPEs. Plain Language Summary: Floods and landslides, mainly caused by extreme precipitation events (EPEs), are severe disasters that affect populations and economies. However, their prediction, especially in tropical areas, is challenging. Here, we study the main atmospheric configurations leading to EPEs using rain‐gauge data densely sampling several tropical small islands and coastal regions, covering the period 1979–2021. In areas prone to tropical storms and cyclones (TCs), these systems account for 10%–30% of EPEs, except for Reunion, whose high topography increases it up to 55%. TC‐related EPEs are also more intense than non‐TC‐related EPEs. TCs multiply the EPE probability of occurrence by 4–15 times, depending on the region and the TC category. Non‐TC‐related EPEs are shown to occur within specific large‐scale weather patterns in which moisture is highly increased, and convective storms are more active. These patterns involve phenomena occurring at intraseasonal (2–90‐day periods), seasonal‐to‐annual (91–365‐day periods), and interannual (periods above one year) timescales. The intraseasonal variability helps the most to develop this environment favorable to the occurrence of EPEs. Slower signals build a background on which intraseasonal variability can have more effects. The real‐time monitoring of these different features should improve EPE forecasting capabilities and deliver more early warnings. Key Points: Over most of the studied tropical small islands, only 10%–30% of extreme precipitation events occur near a tropical storm or cycloneTropical storms and cyclones favor heavier rainfall and raise the probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation by a factor of 4–15The other largest part of events occur in a large‐scale, intense, moist, and convective anomaly driven mainly by the intraseasonal timescale [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation and atmospheric circulation are the coupled processes through which tropical ocean surface temperatures drive global weather and climate.sup.1-5. Local sea surface warming tends to increase precipitation, but this local control is difficult to disentangle from remote effects of conditions elsewhere. As an example of such a remote effect, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the equatorial Pacific Ocean alter precipitation across the tropics. Atmospheric circulations associated with tropical precipitation are predominantly deep, extending up to the tropopause. Shallow atmospheric circulations.sup.6-8 affecting the lower troposphere also occur, but the importance of their interaction with precipitation is unclear. Uncertainty in precipitation observations.sup.9,10 and limited observations of shallow circulations.sup.11 further obstruct our understanding of the ocean's influence on weather and climate. Despite decades of research, persistent biases remain in many numerical model simulations.sup.12-18, including excessively wide tropical rainbands.sup.14,18, the 'double-intertropical convergence zone problem'.sup.12,16,17 and too-weak responses to ENSO.sup.15. These biases demonstrate gaps in our understanding, reducing confidence in forecasts and projections. Here we use observations to show that seasonal tropical precipitation has a high sensitivity to local sea surface temperature. Our best observational estimate is an 80 per cent change in precipitation for every gram per kilogram change in the saturation specific humidity (itself a function of the sea surface temperature). This observed sensitivity is higher than in 43 of the 47 climate models studied, and is associated with strong shallow circulations. Models with more realistic (closer to 80%) sensitivity have smaller biases across a wide range of metrics. Our results apply to both temporal and spatial variation, over regions where climatological precipitation is about one millimetre per day or more. Our analyses of multiple independent observations, physical constraints and model data underpin these findings. The spread in model behaviour is further linked to differences in shallow convection, thus providing a focus for accelerated research to improve seasonal forecasts through multidecadal climate projections. The response of tropical precipitation to variation in sea surface temperature is stronger than in most climate models, with cool and warm ocean regions linked by strong shallow atmospheric circulations., Author(s): Peter Good [sup.1] , Robin Chadwick [sup.1] [sup.2] , Christopher E. Holloway [sup.3] , John Kennedy [sup.1] , Jason A. Lowe [sup.1] [sup.4] , Romain Roehrig [sup.5] , Stephanie [...]

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

The impact of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) emitted in Central Africa on the tropical African climate is studied using the ocean-atmosphere global climate model CNRM-CM, including prognostic aerosols. The direct BBA forcing, cloud feedbacks (semi-direct effects), effects on surface solar radiation, atmospheric dynamics and precipitation are analysed for the 1990-2014 period. During the June-July-August (JJA) season, the CNRM-CM simulations reveal a BBA semi-direct effect exerted on low-level clouds with an increase in cloud fraction of ∼5-10% over a large part of the tropical ocean. The positive feedback of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds is found to be mainly due to the sea surface temperature response (decrease of ∼-0.5 K) associated with solar heating at 700 hPa, which increases the lower tropospheric stability. Over land, results also indicates a positive effect of BBA on the low cloud fraction especially for the coastal regions of Gabon and Angola with a potentially enhanced impact in these coupled simulations that integrate the response (cooling) of the SST. In addition to the BBA radiative effect on sea surface temperature, the ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations highlight that the oceanic temperature response is noticeable (about -0.2 to -0.4 K) down to ∼80 m depth in the JJA between the African coast and 10°W. In parallel to low-level clouds, reductions of ∼5-10% are obtained for mid-level clouds over central Africa, mainly due to BBA-induced surface cooling and lower tropospheric heating inhibiting convection. In terms of cloud optical properties, the BBA radiative effects induced an increase of the optical depth by about ∼2-3 south of the equator over the ocean. The result of the BBA direct effect and feedback on tropical clouds modulates the surface solar radiation over the whole Tropical Africa. The strongest surface dimming is over central Africa (∼-30 W m-2), leading to a large reduction of the continental surface temperature (by ∼-1 to -2 K), but the solar radiation at the oceanic surface is also affected up to the Brazilian coast. With respect to the hydrological cycle, the CNRM-CM simulations show a negative feedback on precipitation over theWest African coast with a decrease of ∼-1 to -2 mm per day. This study highlights also a persistent impact of BBA radiative effects on low-level clouds (increase in cloud fraction, liquid water content and optical depth) during the September-October-November (SON) period, mainly explained by a residual cooling of sea surface temperature over most of the tropical ocean. In SON, the feedback on precipitation is mainly simulated over the Gulf of Guinea with a reduction by ∼-1 mm per day. As for JJA, the analysis clearly highlights the important role of the slow response of the ocean in SON and confirms the need to use coupled modelling platforms to study the impact of BBA on tropical African climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds affect the Earth climate with an impact that depends on the cloud nature (solid and/or liquid water). Although the Antarctic climate is changing rapidly, cloud observations are sparse over Antarctica due to few ground stations and satellite observations. The Concordia station is located on the eastern Antarctic Plateau (75 ∘ S, 123 ∘ E; 3233 m above mean sea level), one of the driest and coldest places on Earth. We used observations of clouds, temperature, liquid water, and surface irradiance performed at Concordia during four austral summers (December 2018–2021) to analyse the link between liquid water and temperature and its impact on surface irradiance in the presence of supercooled liquid water (liquid water for temperature less than 0 ∘ C) clouds (SLWCs). Our analysis shows that, within SLWCs, temperature logarithmically increases from -36.0 to -16.0 ∘ C when liquid water path increases from 1.0 to 14.0 g m -2. The SLWC radiative forcing is positive and logarithmically increases from 0.0 to 70.0 W m -2 when liquid water path increases from 1.2 to 3.5 g m -2. This is mainly due to the downward longwave component that logarithmically increases from 0 to 90 W m -2 when liquid water path increases from 1.0 to 3.5 g m -2. The attenuation of shortwave incoming irradiance (that can reach more than 100 W m -2) is almost compensated for by the upward shortwave irradiance because of high values of surface albedo. Based on our study, we can extrapolate that, over the Antarctic continent, SLWCs have a maximum radiative forcing that is rather weak over the eastern Antarctic Plateau (0 to 7 W m -2) but 3 to 5 times larger over West Antarctica (0 to 40 W m -2), maximizing in summer and over the Antarctic Peninsula. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Getting the right precipitation probability density function in the Mediterranean area is a challenge for most global and regional climate models with parametrized convection. Over land in particular, the intensity of heavy‐precipitating events is often underestimated. In the present study, we provide a process‐based analysis of the representation by the CNRM‐ALADIN63 regional climate model of one of these events, which occurred in the southeast of France on November 1–2, 2008. The CNRM‐ALADIN63 model, when run in a configuration where the large‐scale dynamics is nudged towards that of the ERA‐Interim reanalysis, is first shown to capture the location and intensity of the heavy‐precipitating event appropriately. Then, using a reference convection‐permitting simulation of the same event and a conditional sampling approach to identify and characterize convective updraughts, the ability of the model convection parametrization to capture further convective details is assessed. The model misses the occurrence of the updraught mass flux largest values, despite a significant and systematic overestimation of the updraught vertical velocity. The area covered by the convective updraught is in fact found to be severely underestimated, suggesting an inappropriate approach for convective closure: the event occurred along the foothills of the Massif Central, where the subgrid‐scale features of the topography interact strongly with the impinging large‐scale flow and thereby drive the position and large area fractions of convective updraughts, at least during the mature phase of the event. A preliminary topography‐based convective closure is proposed and implemented in the model to assess this hypothesis further. The results confirm that the parametrization deficiencies can be significantly reduced with a proper inclusion of subgrid‐scale topographic features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clouds affect the Earth climate with an impact that depends on the cloud nature (solid/liquid water). Although the Antarctic climate is changing rapidly, cloud observations are sparse over Antarctica due to few ground stations and satellite observations. The Concordia station located on the East Antarctic Plateau (75°S, 123°E, 3233 m above mean sea level), one of driest and coldest places on Earth. We used observations of clouds, temperature, liquid water and surface radiation performed at Concordia during 4 austral summers (December 2018-2021) to analyse the link between liquid water and temperature and its impact on surface radiation the presence of supercooled liquid water (liquid water for temperature less than 0°C) clouds (SLWCs). Our analysis shows that, within SLWCs, temperature logarithmically increases from -36.0°C to -16.0°C when liquid water path increases from 1.0 to 14.0 g m-2, and SLWCs positively impact the net surface radiation, which logarithmically increases by 0.0 to 50.0 m-2 when liquid water path increases from 1.7 to 3.0 g m-2. We finally estimate that SLWCs have a great potential radiative impact over Antarctica whatever the season considered, up 5.0 W m-2 over the Eastern Antarctic Plateau and up to 30 W m-2 over the Antarctic Peninsula in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the recent decades, extreme precipitation events (EPEs) have become more frequent over the Sahel. Their properties, however, have so far received little attention. In this study the spatial distribution, intensity, seasonality, and interannual variability of EPEs are examined, using both a reference dataset based on a high-density rain gauge network over Burkina Faso and 24 precipitation gridded datasets. The gridded datasets are evaluated in depth over Burkina Faso while their commonalities are used to document the EPE properties over the Sahel. EPEs are defined as the occurrence of daily accumulated precipitation exceeding the all-day 99th percentile over a 1° × 1° pixel. Over Burkina Faso, this percentile ranges between 21 and 33 mm day−1. The reference dataset show that EPEs occur in phase with the West African monsoon annual cycle, more frequently during the monsoon core season and during wet years. These results are consistent among the gridded datasets over Burkina Faso but also over the wider Sahel. The gridded datasets exhibit a wide diversity of skills when compared to the Burkinabe reference. The Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Daily version 1 (GPCC-FDDv1) and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Gauge Reanalysis version 6.0 (GSMaP-gauge-RNL v6.0) are the only products that properly reproduce all of the EPE features examined in this work. The datasets using a combination of microwave and infrared measurements are prone to overestimate the EPE intensity, while infrared-only products generally underestimate it. Their calibrated versions perform better than their uncalibrated (near-real-time) versions. This study finally emphasizes that the lack of rain gauge data availability over the whole Sahel strongly impedes our ability to gain insights in EPE properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]