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This paper provides a new method to estimate price-cost margins in the presence of fixed costs of production. By exploiting properties of the primal and dual sales-based and cost-based Solow residuals, we are able to simultaneously estimate price-cost margins and the share of fixed costs in total costs for each input. Ignoring fixed costs in production underestimates price-cost margins and overestimates excess profit shares. Using a thirty-year panel of Belgian firms, we estimate price-cost margins, as a fraction of sales, of 25.4% on average, which can be decomposed between fixed costs of 22.9% and excess profits of 2.5%. Belgian price-cost margins have declined (−5.9%) in the past three decades due to a combination of falling fixed costs (−4.0%) and decreasing excess profits (−1.9%), suggesting that output markets have become even more competitive over time. While large firms have higher profit shares than small firms, they have lower fixed cost shares as well as lower price-cost margins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The German economy will likely contract in the first quarter of 2024 due to still heightened inflation and weak demand, which was already weighing on German economic output in 2023. Inflation, which is falling in both Germany and the euro area overall, is expected to return close to the European Central Bank's two-percent target, suggesting that a turnaround in interest rates can be expected in early summer. Better financing conditions and the slowdown in price momentum are likely to somewhat boost both private consumption as well as corporate investments over the course of 2024. Nevertheless, there is currently still a great deal of uncertainty, particular in regard to the future economic policy environment, which is causing households and companies to remain cautious in Germany. In addition, fiscal policy stimuli as well as foreign demand are lacking. German GDP will virtually stagnate and, carried by private consumption and public investments in equipment, increase more markedly by 1.2 percent in 2025. The global economy will continue to develop more robustly than Germany; it is projected to increase by 3.5 percent in both 2024 and 2025, which should gradually strengthen German exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: DIW-Wochenbericht is the property of DIW Berlin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: DIW-Wochenbericht is the property of DIW Berlin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Reducing carbon emissions is essential to meeting climate targets. What is unclear, however, is which measures are required to do so and what impact they would have on economic growth. In this Weekly Report, a macroeconomic model is used to observe four scenarios in comparison to a baseline scenario without emissions reduction. It is analyzed which effects different measures, such as technological progress developing at an increased speed and/or carbon pricing, would have on economic growth and emissions targets. Assuming that energy-saving technological progress develops as it has in the past, meeting the emissions targets will require a relatively high carbon price, which has a dampening effect on economic growth. If energy-saving technological progress were to develop at a faster pace, emissions targets could be met without carbon pricing and there would be slight growth. Therefore, consideration should be given to how much accompanying economic and climate policy measures can mitigate potential growth losses and distributional effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: DIW-Wochenbericht is the property of DIW Berlin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)