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3. Prediction of the COVID-19 Pandemic for the Top 15 Affected Countries: Advanced Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model

Author

Singh, Ram Kumar, Rani, Meenu, Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth, Sah, Ranjit, Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J, Kalita, Himangshu, Nanda, Chintan, Sharma, Shashi, Sharma, Yagya Datt, Rabaan, Ali A, Rahmani, Jamal, and Kumar, Pavan

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

BackgroundThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected more than 200 countries and has infected more than 2,800,000 people as of April 24, 2020. It was first identified in Wuhan City in China in December 2019. ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to identify the top 15 countries with spatial mapping of the confirmed cases. A comparison was done between the identified top 15 countries for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries, and an advanced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for predicting the COVID-19 disease spread trajectories for the next 2 months. MethodsThe comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. The spatial map is useful to identify the intensity of COVID-19 infections in the top 15 countries and the continents. The recent reported data for confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the last 3 months was represented and compared between the top 15 infected countries. The advanced ARIMA model was used for predicting future data based on time series data. The ARIMA model provides a weight to past values and error values to correct the model prediction, so it is better than other basic regression and exponential methods. The comparison of recent cumulative and predicted cases was done for the top 15 countries with confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19. ResultsThe top 15 countries with a high number of confirmed cases were stratified to include the data in a mathematical model. The identified top 15 countries with cumulative cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19 were compared. The United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, China, and Russia saw a relatively fast spread of the disease. There was a fast recovery ratio in China, Switzerland, Germany, Iran, and Brazil, and a slow recovery ratio in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Russia, and Italy. There was a high death rate ratio in Italy and the United Kingdom and a lower death rate ratio in Russia, Turkey, China, and the United States. The ARIMA model was used to predict estimated confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries for the top 15 countries from April 24 to July 7, 2020. Its value is represented with 95%, 80%, and 70% confidence interval values. The validation of the ARIMA model was done using the Akaike information criterion value; its values were about 20, 14, and 16 for cumulative confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries of COVID-19, respectively, which represents acceptable results. ConclusionsThe observed predicted values showed that the confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries will double in all the observed countries except China, Switzerland, and Germany. It was also observed that the death and recovery rates were rose faster when compared to confirmed cases over the next 2 months. The associated mortality rate will be much higher in the United States, Spain, and Italy followed by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The forecast analysis of the COVID-19 dynamics showed a different angle for the whole world, and it looks scarier than imagined, but recovery numbers start looking promising by July 7, 2020.

Published
2020
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7. Drug resistance patterns of commonly used antibiotics for the treatment of helicobacter pylori infection among south Asian countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Author

Shrestha, Abhigan Babu, Pokharel, Pashupati, Sapkota, Unnat Hamal, Shrestha, Sajina, Mohamed, Shueb A, Khanal, Surakshya, Jha, Saroj Kumar, Mohanty, Aroop, Padhi, Bijaya Kumar, Asija, Ankush, Sedhai, Yub Raj, Rijal, Rishikesh, Singh, Karan, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, RodrIguez-Morales, Alfonso J, Barboza, Joshuan J, and Sah, Ranjit

Published
2023

10. Socio-demographic determinants of the knowledge of Monkeypox Virus among the general public: a cross-sectional study in a Tertiary Care Center in Nepal

Author

Das, Santa Kumar, Bhattarai, Abhinav, Paudel, Kiran, Bhusal, Sandesh, Shah, Sangam, Timsina, Sakchhyam, Subedi, Aastha, Niroula, Sandhya, Alshahrani, Najim Z., Sah, Sanjit, Padhi, Bijaya Kumar, Barboza, Joshuan J., Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J., Salas-Matta, Luis A., Bonilla-Aldana, D. Katterine, and Sah, Ranjit

Published
2024
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16. Antiviral treatment against monkeypox: A scoping review

Author

Ortiz-Saavedra, Brando, Leon-Figueroa, Darwin A, Montes-Madariaga, Elizbet S, Ricardo-Martinez, Alex, Alva, Niza, Cabanillas-Ramirez, Cielo, Barboza, Joshuan J, Siddiq, Abdelmonem, Coaguila Cusicanqui, Luis A, Bonilla-Aldana, D Katterine, and RodrIguez-Morales, Alfonso J

Published
2022

23. The resurgence of monkeypox: Epidemiology, clinical features, and public health implications in the post-smallpox eradication era

Author

Singh, Parminder, Sridhar, Sathvik Belagodu, Shareef, Javedh, Talath, Sirajunisa, Mohapatra, Priyanka, Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli, Ballal, Suhas, Kaur, Mandeep, Nathiya, Deepak, Sharma, Shilpa, Siva Prasad, G.V., Sinha, Aashna, Varma, Amit, Bushi, Ganesh, Gaidhane, Abhay M., Satapathy, Prakasini, Shabil, Muhammed, Sah, Renu, Al-Tawfiq, Jaffar A., Sah, Ranjit, and Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J.

Published
2024
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25. New daily persistent headache after SARS-CoV-2 infection in Latin America: a cross-sectional study

Author

Carrión-Nessi, Fhabián S., Ascanio, Luis C., Pineda-Arapé, Andreína G., Omaña-Ávila, Óscar D., Mendoza-Millán, Daniela L., Romero, Sinibaldo R., Almao-Rivero, Abranny B., Camejo-Ávila, Natasha A., Gebran-Chedid, Karim J., Rodriguez-Saavedra, Carlis M., Freitas-De Nobrega, Diana C., Castañeda, Sergio A., Forero-Peña, José L., Delgado-Noguera, Lourdes A., Meneses-Ramírez, Lucianny K., Cotuá, Juan C., Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J., Forero-Peña, David A., and Paniz-Mondolfi, Alberto E.

Published
2023
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26. Pan-American Guidelines for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19: a joint evidence-based guideline of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases (SBI) and the Pan-American Association of Infectious Diseases (API)

Author

Barbosa, Alexandre Naime, Chebabo, Alberto, Starling, Carlos, Pérez, Clevy, Cunha, Clóvis Arns, de Luna, David, Nunes, Estevão Portela, Zambrano, Gabriela, Ferreira, Juliana Carvalho, Croda, Julio, Falavigna, Maicon, Gomes-da-Silva, Monica Maria, Thormann, Monica, Cimerman, Sergio, Parahiba, Suena Medeiros, Tanni, Suzana, Bernardo, Wanderley Marques, and Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J.

Published
2023
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28. Natural infection by Zika virus but not DNA vaccination consistently elicits antibodies that compete with two potently neutralising monoclonal antibodies targeting distinct epitopes

Author

Smith, Teresa C., Espinoza, Daniel O., Zhu, Yerun, Cardona-Ospina, Jaime A., Bowman, Natalie M., Becker-Dreps, Sylvia, Rouphael, Nadine, Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J., Bucardo, Filemon, Edupuganti, Srilatha, Premkumar, Lakshmanane, Mulligan, Mark J., de Silva, Aravinda M., and Collins, Matthew H.

Published
2023
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31. A systematic review and meta-analysis of bovine brucellosis seroprevalence in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author

Bonilla-Aldana, D. Katterine, Trejos-Mendoza, Adrián Esteban, Pérez-Vargas, Soffia, Rivera-Casas, Estefany, Muñoz-Lara, Fausto, Zambrano, Lysien I., Arteaga-Livias, Kovy, Ulloque-Badaracco, Juan R., Alarcon-Braga, Esteban A., Hernandez-Bustamante, Enrique A., Al-kassab-Córdova, Ali, Benites-Zapata, Vicente A., and Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J.

Published
2023
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32. Knowledge of mpox and its determinants among the healthcare personnel in Arabic regions: A multi-country cross-sectional study

Author

Swed, Sarya, Bohsas, Haidara, Patwary, Muhammad Mainuddin, Alibrahim, Hidar, Rakab, Amine, Nashwan, Abdulqadir J., Hafez, Wael, Hassan, Noheir A.I., Shoib, Sheikh, Elsayed, Mohamed, Sawaf, Bisher, Albuni, Mhd Kutaiba, Battikh, Elias, Mohamed, Gihan mustafa kamal, AlBozom, Adel, Shaddad, Ebrahim, fathey, Sherihan, Nu Htay, Mila Nu, Sah, Sanjit, Cherrez-Ojeda, Ivan, Mohanty, Aroop, Padhi, Bijaya Kumar, Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J., Gandhi P, Aravind, and Sah, Ranjit

Published
2023
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35. Features of Mpox infection: The analysis of the data submitted to the ID-IRI network

Author

Eser-Karlidag, Gulden, Chacon-Cruz, Enrique, Cag, Yasemin, Martinez-Orozco, Jose Arturo, Gudino-Solorio, Humberto, Cruz-Flores, Raul Adrian, Gonzalez-Rodriguez, Andrea, Martinez-Nieves, Daniela, Gomez-Zepeda, Mario, Calderon-Suarez, Andrea, Çaşkurlu, Hülya, Cascio, Antonio, Fernandez, Ricardo, Gonzales, Greisha M., Palma, Pedro, Popescu, Corneliu Petru, Stebel, Roman, Lakatos, Botond, Nagy, Eva, Lanzafame, Massimiliano, El-Kholy, Amani, Tuncer, Buse, Christova, Iva, Krumova, Stefka, Barbosa, Alexandre Naime, Escalera-Antezana, Juan Pablo, Castillo-Quino, Ruben, Gonzales-Flores, Carlos Eduardo, Moreira-Flores, Miriam, Batallanos-Huarachi, Marcelo Felipe, Gomez-Davila, Christian, Baljic, Rusmir, Vieceli, Tarsila, Ariyo, Olumuyiwa Elijah, Llobell, Mireia Cairo, Gideon, Osasona Oluwadamilola, Osborne, Augustus, Elbahr, Umran, Bossi, Philippe, Tammaro, Antonella, Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J., and Erdem, Hakan

Published
2023
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36. Mpox: Risks and approaches to prevention

Author

Amer, Fatma, Khalil, Hend E.S., Elahmady, Mohammed, ElBadawy, Nissreen E., Zahran, Wafaa Ahmed, Abdelnasser, Moustafa, Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J., Wegdan, Ahmed A., and Tash, Rehab M.Elsaid

Published
2023
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37. Melioidosis in South America

Author

Rolim, Dionne B, Lima, Rachel Ximenes R, Ribeiro, Ana Karoline C, Colares, Rafael M, Lima, Leoniti D Q, RodrIguez-Morales, Alfonso J, Montufar, Franco E, and Dance, David A B

Published
2018

41. Concerns on H5N1 avian influenza given the outbreak in U.S. dairy cattle

Author

Sah, Ranjit, primary, Srivastava, Shriyansh, additional, Kumar, Sachin, additional, Mehta, Rachana, additional, Donovan, Suzanne, additional, Sierra-Carrero, Leandro, additional, Luna, Camila, additional, Woc-Colburn, Laila, additional, Cardona-Ospina, Jaime A., additional, Hinestroza-Jordan, Monica, additional, Wessolossky, Mireya, additional, and Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J., additional

Published
2024
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42. Snakebite-Associated Infections: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Author

Bonilla-Aldana, D. Katterine, primary, Bonilla-Aldana, Jorge Luis, additional, Ulloque-Badaracco, Juan R., additional, Al-kassab-Córdova, Ali, additional, Hernandez-Bustamante, Enrique A., additional, Alarcon-Braga, Esteban A., additional, Siddiq, Abdelmonem, additional, Benites-Zapata, Vicente A., additional, Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J., additional, Luna, Camila, additional, and Suarez, Jose A., additional

Published
2024
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43. Usefulness of Electoral Models for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution

Author

Hugo, Héctor D., Michel, Jack, Antón, Christian, Alemán, Washington R., Cueva, Carlos, Bort, Carlos, Andino, Francisco, Edaki, Omoyeme, Shrestha, Prakriti S., Rodó, Laura, Ishak, Angela, Quinonez, Jonathan, Maskey, Upasana, Ozair, Saleha, Choudhari, Jinal, Poudel, Sujan, Jaiswal, Vikash, Au, Zachary, Siddiqui, Usman, Pandav, Krunal, Chohan, Farah, Cunha, Manoel H., Fioroni, Marcelo, Franzese, Luiz A., Reaño, Javier, and Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J.

Published
2022
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45. Diagnosis and classification of optic neuritis

Author

Petzold, Axel, Fraser, Clare L, Abegg, Mathias, Alroughani, Raed, Alshowaeir, Daniah, Alvarenga, Regina, Andris, Cécile, Asgari, Nasrin, Barnett, Yael, Battistella, Roberto, Behbehani, Raed, Berger, Thomas, Bikbov, Mukharram M, Biotti, Damien, Biousse, Valerie, Boschi, Antonella, Brazdil, Milan, Brezhnev, Andrei, Calabresi, Peter A, Cordonnier, Monique, Costello, Fiona, Cruz, Franz M, Cunha, Leonardo Provetti, Daoudi, Smail, Deschamps, Romain, de Seze, Jerome, Diem, Ricarda, Etemadifar, Masoud, Flores-Rivera, Jose, Fonseca, Pedro, Frederiksen, Jette, Frohman, Elliot, Frohman, Teresa, Tilikete, Caroline Froment, Fujihara, Kazuo, Gálvez, Alberto, Gouider, Riadh, Gracia, Fernando, Grigoriadis, Nikolaos, Guajardo, José M, Habek, Mario, Hawlina, Marko, Martínez-Lapiscina, Elena H, Hooker, Juzar, Hor, Jyh Yung, Howlett, William, Huang-Link, Yumin, Idrissova, Zhannat, Illes, Zsolt, Jancic, Jasna, Jindahra, Panitha, Karussis, Dimitrios, Kerty, Emilia, Kim, Ho Jin, Lagrèze, Wolf, Leocani, Letizia, Levin, Netta, Liskova, Petra, Liu, Yaou, Maiga, Youssoufa, Marignier, Romain, McGuigan, Chris, Meira, Dália, Merle, Harold, Monteiro, Mário L R, Moodley, Anand, Moura, Frederico, Muñoz, Silvia, Mustafa, Sharik, Nakashima, Ichiro, Noval, Susana, Oehninger, Carlos, Ogun, Olufunmilola, Omoti, Afekhide, Pandit, Lekha, Paul, Friedemann, Rebolleda, Gema, Reddel, Stephen, Rejdak, Konrad, Rejdak, Robert, Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J, Rougier, Marie-Bénédicte, Sa, Maria Jose, Sanchez-Dalmau, Bernardo, Saylor, Deanna, Shatriah, Ismail, Siva, Aksel, Stiebel-Kalish, Hadas, Szatmary, Gabriella, Ta, Linh, Tenembaum, Silvia, Tran, Huy, Trufanov, Yevgen, van Pesch, Vincent, Wang, An-Guor, Wattjes, Mike P, Willoughby, Ernest, Zakaria, Magd, Zvornicanin, Jasmin, Balcer, Laura, and Plant, Gordon T

Published
2022
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47. Susceptibility to endemic Aedes‐borne viruses among pregnant women in Risaralda, Colombia

Author

Cardona-Ospina, Jaime A., Trujillo, Adriana M., Jiménez-Posada, Erika V., Sepúlveda-Arias, Juan C., Tabares-Villa, Fredy A., Altieri-Rivera, Joanne S., Monsalve, Alejandro, Restrepo-Chica, Juliana, Osorio, Daniela, Espinoza, Daniel, Zhu, Yerun, Castrillón-Spitia, Juan D., Henao-SanMartin, Valentina, Murillo-Garcia, David R., Millán, Natalia, Olaya, Sandra X., Valencia-Montoya, Ana M., Bedoya-Arias, Hugo A., Villamizar-Peña, Rhuvi, Gutierrez-Ocampo, Estefanía, Holguin-Rivera, Yeimer, Cortés-Bonilla, Isabella, Cardona-Trujillo, Maria C., García-Barco, Alejandra, Bonilla-Aldana, D. Katterine, Lagos-Grisales, Guillermo J., Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J., and Collins, Matthew H.

Published
2022
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49. Seroprevalence canine survey for selected vector-borne pathogens and its relationship with poverty in metropolitan Pereira, Colombia, 2020

Author

Bonilla-Aldana, D. Katterine, Gutiérrez-Grajales, Erwin J., Martínez-Arboleda, J. Paola, Reina-Mora, María Angelica, Trejos-Mendoza, Adrián E., Pérez-Vargas, Soffia, Valencia-Mejía, Lorenzo, Marín-Arboleda, Luisa F., Osorio-Navia, Daniela, Chacón-Peña, Mariana, González-Colonia, Luz Victoria, Cardona-Ospina, Jaime A., Jiménez-Posada, Erika Vanessa, Diaz, Andrés, Salazar, Jean Carlos, Sierra, Manuel, Muñoz-Lara, Fausto, Zambrano, Lysien I., Ramírez-Vallejo, Eduardo, Álvarez, Juan Camilo, Jaramillo-Delgado, Ingrid Lorena, Pecho-Silva, Samuel, Paniz-Mondolfi, Alberto, Faccini-Martínez, Álvaro A., and Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J.

Published
2022
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