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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly become a global pandemic. Because the severity of the disease is highly variable, predictive models to stratify patients according to their mortality risk are needed., Objective: Our aim was to develop a model able to predict the risk of fatal outcome in patients with COVID-19 that could be used easily at the time of patients' arrival at the hospital., Methods: We constructed a prospective cohort with 611 adult patients in whom COVID-19 was diagnosed between March 10 and April 12, 2020, in a tertiary hospital in Madrid, Spain. The analysis included 501 patients who had been discharged or had died by April 20, 2020. The capacity of several biomarkers, measured at the beginning of hospitalization, to predict mortality was assessed individually. Those biomarkers that independently contributed to improve mortality prediction were included in a multivariable risk model., Results: High IL-6 level, C-reactive protein level, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, ferritin level, d-dimer level, neutrophil count, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were all predictive of mortality (area under the curve >0.70), as were low albumin level, lymphocyte count, monocyte count, and ratio of peripheral blood oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO 2 /FiO 2 ). A multivariable mortality risk model including the SpO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, LDH level, IL-6 level, and age was developed and showed high accuracy for the prediction of fatal outcome (area under the curve 0.94). The optimal cutoff reliably classified patients (including patients with no initial respiratory distress) as survivors and nonsurvivors with 0.88 sensitivity and 0.89 specificity., Conclusion: This mortality risk model allows early risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 before the appearance of obvious signs of clinical deterioration, and it can be used as a tool to guide clinical decision making., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The assessment of specific polysaccharide antibody production plays a pivotal role in the diagnosis of humoral primary immunodeficiencies (PID). The response to 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PPV) remains the gold standard for the diagnosis of polysaccharide antibodies. However, in Spain, the interpretation of pure polysaccharide 23-valent immunization is hampered by the high endemicity of pneumococcal disease and the generalization of the 13-valent adjuvant pneumococcal vaccination. Specific Typhim Vi vaccination (TV) immunoglobulin G IgG response to immunization is useful in adult PID, but there is no data regarding children. Objectives: To evaluate the clinical utility of TV IgG production as a diagnostic tool to determine anti-polysaccharide antibody production deficiency in children, when the response to PPV is unclear and isolated determination of serotypes is unfeasible. Methods: We conducted a single-institution prospective observational study on 61 children with recurrent infections. Baseline specific antibodies against PPV and TV were evaluated. In 28 children (46%), the response to the production of antibodies confirmed a clinical suspicion of humoral PID, and they were therefore immunized with 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine and Typhim Vi. Both specific antibody responses were measured by ELISA (The Binding Site Group Ltd, Birmingham, UK) using previously published cut-offs. Results: Seventy percent of the 61 children displayed baseline PPV IgG > 27 mg/L, whereas only 8% showed TV IgG > 28 U/mL ( p < 0.0001). Twenty-one of 28 children (75%) achieved a 3-fold increase in post-vaccination TV IgG levels, whereas only 3% achieved a 4-fold increase in PPV IgG post vaccination, mainly due to high baseline PPV IgG titers. When we classified children according to their response to TV as responders or non-responders and compared this with the well-known clinical warning signs of the Jeffrey Modell Foundation. The proportions of children with history of pneumonia and the need for intravenous antibiotics were significantly higher in TV IgG non-responders than in TV IgG responders ( p = 0.02 and p = 0.01, respectively). Conclusion: Response to TV can be considered an ancillary diagnostic tool to determine polysaccharide antibodies in children, particularly when isolated determination of pneumococcal serotypes is not feasible. TV provides a useful asset for clinicians in the era of conjugate PPV vaccination, with clinical relevance. Further research is warranted for validation.