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Extreme events can severely impact marine organisms and ecosystems. Of particular concern are multivariate compound events, namely when conditions are simultaneously extreme for multiple ocean ecosystem stressors. In 2013–2015 for example, an extensive marine heatwave (MHW), known as the Blob, co-occurred locally with extremely low net primary productivity (NPPX) and negatively impacted marine life in the northeast Pacific. Yet, little is known about the characteristics and drivers of such multivariate compound MHW–NPPX events. Using five different satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) estimates and large-ensemble-simulation output of two widely used and comprehensive Earth system models, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) ESM2M-LE and Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2-LE), we assess the present-day distribution of compound MHW–NPPX events and investigate their potential drivers on the global scale. The satellite-based estimates and both models reveal hotspots of frequent compound events in the center of the equatorial Pacific and in the subtropical Indian Ocean, where their occurrence is at least 3 times higher (more than 10 d yr−1) than if MHWs (temperature above the seasonally varying 90th-percentile threshold) and NPPX events (NPP below the seasonally varying 10th-percentile threshold) were to occur independently. However, the models show disparities in the northern high latitudes, where compound events are rare in the satellite-based estimates and GFDL ESM2M-LE (less than 3 d yr−1) but relatively frequent in CESM2-LE. In the Southern Ocean south of 60∘ S, low agreement between the observation-based estimates makes it difficult to determine which of the two models better simulates MHW–NPPX events. The frequency patterns can be explained by the drivers of compound events, which vary among the two models and phytoplankton types. In the low latitudes, MHWs are associated with enhanced nutrient

Here we test the hypothesis that winds have an important role in determining the rate of exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and ocean through wind stirring over the Southern Ocean. This is tested with a sensitivity study using an ad hoc parameterization of wind stirring in an ocean carbon cycle model, where the objective is to identify the way in which perturbations to the vertical density structure of the planetary boundary in the ocean impacts the carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry. Wind stirring leads to reduced uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean over the period 2000–2006, with a relative reduction with wind stirring on the order of 0.9 Pg C yr−1 over the region south of 45° S. This impacts not only the mean carbon uptake, but also the phasing of the seasonal cycle of carbon and other ocean biogeochemical tracers. Enhanced wind stirring delays the seasonal onset of stratification, and this has large impacts on both entrainment and the biological pump. It is also found that there is a strong reduction on the order of 25–30% in the concentrations of NO3 exported in Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) to wind stirring. This finds expression not only locally over the Southern Ocean, but also over larger scales through the impact on advected nutrients. In summary, the large sensitivity identified with the ad hoc wind stirring parameterization offers support for the importance of wind stirring for global ocean biogeochemistry through its impact over the Southern Ocean.

Here we test the hypothesis that winds have an important role in determining the rate of exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and ocean through wind stirring over the Southern Ocean. This is tested with a sensitivity study using an ad hoc parameterization of wind stirring in an ocean carbon cycle model, where the objective is to identify the way in which perturbations to the vertical density structure of the planetary boundary in the ocean impacts the carbon cycle and ocean biogeochemistry. Wind stirring leads to reduced uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean over the period 2000–2006, with a relative reduction with wind stirring on the order of 0.9 Pg C yr−1 over the region south of 45° S. This impacts not only the mean carbon uptake, but also the phasing of the seasonal cycle of carbon and other ocean biogeochemical tracers. Enhanced wind stirring delays the seasonal onset of stratification, and this has large impacts on both entrainment and the biological pump. It is also found that there is a strong reduction on the order of 25–30% in the concentrations of NO3 exported in Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) to wind stirring. This finds expression not only locally over the Southern Ocean, but also over larger scales through the impact on advected nutrients. In summary, the large sensitivity identified with the ad hoc wind stirring parameterization offers support for the importance of wind stirring for global ocean biogeochemistry through its impact over the Southern Ocean.

The scientific motivation for this study is to understand the processes in the ocean interior controlling carbon transfer across 30S. To address this, we have developed a unified framework for understanding the interplay between physical drivers such as buoyancy fluxes and ocean mixing, and carbon-specific processes such as biology, gas exchange and carbon mixing. Given the importance of density in determining the ocean interior structure and circulation, the framework is one that is organized by density and water masses, and it makes combined use of Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. This is achieved through application to a global ice-ocean circulation model and an ocean biogeochemistry model, with both components being part of the widely-used IPSL coupled ocean/atmosphere/carbon cycle model. Our main new result is the dominance of the overturning circulation (identified by water masses) in setting the vertical distribution of carbon transport from the Southern Ocean towards the global ocean. A net contrast emerges between the role of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), associated with large northward transport and ingassing, and Antarctic IntermediateWater (AAIW), associated with a much smaller export and outgassing. The differences in their export rate reflects differences in their water mass formation processes. For SAMW, two-thirds of the surface waters are provided as a result of the densification of thermocline water (TW), and upon densification this water carries with it a substantial diapycnal flux of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). For AAIW, principal formatin processes include buoyancy forcing and mixing, with these serving to lighten CDW. An additional important formation pathway of AAIW is through the effect of interior processing (mixing, including cabelling) that serve to densify SAMW. A quantitative evaluation of the contribution of mixing, biology and gas exchange to the DIC evolution per water mass reveals that mixing and, secondarily, gas exchang

The scientific motivation for this study is to understand the processes in the ocean interior controlling carbon transfer across 30S. To address this, we have developed a unified framework for understanding the interplay between physical drivers such as buoyancy fluxes and ocean mixing, and carbon-specific processes such as biology, gas exchange and carbon mixing. Given the importance of density in determining the ocean interior structure and circulation, the framework is one that is organized by density and water masses, and it makes combined use of Eulerian and Lagrangian diagnostics. This is achieved through application to a global ice-ocean circulation model and an ocean biogeochemistry model, with both components being part of the widely-used IPSL coupled ocean/atmosphere/carbon cycle model. Our main new result is the dominance of the overturning circulation (identified by water masses) in setting the vertical distribution of carbon transport from the Southern Ocean towards the global ocean. A net contrast emerges between the role of Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), associated with large northward transport and ingassing, and Antarctic IntermediateWater (AAIW), associated with a much smaller export and outgassing. The differences in their export rate reflects differences in their water mass formation processes. For SAMW, two-thirds of the surface waters are provided as a result of the densification of thermocline water (TW), and upon densification this water carries with it a substantial diapycnal flux of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). For AAIW, principal formatin processes include buoyancy forcing and mixing, with these serving to lighten CDW. An additional important formation pathway of AAIW is through the effect of interior processing (mixing, including cabelling) that serve to densify SAMW. A quantitative evaluation of the contribution of mixing, biology and gas exchange to the DIC evolution per water mass reveals that mixing and, secondarily, gas exchang

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms—such as corals and some plankton—will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean–carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.