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This analysis estimates the cost of selected oil and biomass supply shocks for producers and consumers in the light-duty vehicle fuel market under various supply chain configurations using a mathematical programing model, BioTrans. The supply chain configurations differ by whether they include selected flexibility levers: multi-feedstock biorefineries; advanced biomass logistics; and the ability to adjust ethanol content of low-ethanol fuel blends, from E10 to E15 or E05. The simulated scenarios explore market responses to supply shocks including substitution between gasoline and ethanol, substitution between different sources of ethanol supply, biorefinery capacity additions or idling, and price adjustments. Welfare effects for the various market participants represented in BioTrans are summarized into a net shock cost measure. As oil accounts for a larger fraction of fuel by volume, its supply shocks are costlier than biomass supply shocks. Corn availability and the high cost of adding biorefinery capacity limit increases in ethanol use during gasoline price spikes. During shocks that imply sudden decreases in the price of gasoline, the renewable fuel standard (RFS) biofuel blending mandate limits the extent to which flexibility can be exercised to reduce ethanol use. The selected flexibility levers are most useful in response to cellulosic biomass supply shocks.

Policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential economic impacts of oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe supply shocks. Literature estimates of the economic impacts of oil price shocks, summarized by the oil price elasticity of GDP, span a very wide range due to both fundamental economic and methodological factors. This paper presents a quantitative meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil importing countries, with a focus on the United States (US). The full range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of GDP for the US in the data is − 0.124 to + 0.017, accounting for different methodologies, data and other factors. We employ a meta-regression model that controls for key determinant factors to estimate the mean and variance of the GDP elasticity across studies. We use a robust estimation technique to deal with heterogeneity of the data and well-known econometric issues that confront meta-analysis. The resulting regression model is used to simulate the oil price elasticity of GDP for the US, with a mean of − 0.020% and 68% confidence interval of − 0.035 to − 0.006, four quarters after a shock.

The issuance of a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) license is an important milestone in the development process of new U.S. hydropower projects. The complexity and uncertain timeline of the licensing process have been often cited as a key deterrent to new hydropower installations in the United States. However, very little attention has been paid to post-licensing timelines and attrition rates. This article explores the challenges faced by developers in bringing their FERC-licensed hydropower projects to the construction stage. Post-licensing activities to be completed before starting construction include obtaining additional permitting from other federal or state agencies, completing the technical design, securing financing, and in most cases, negotiating a power purchase agreement. For the set of projects that obtained a FERC license between 2007 and 2018, we assembled a dataset—combining information from FERC dockets and responses from a questionnaire to developers—to calculate attrition rates and development timelines and to examine the reasons for delays and cancellations.

Background: This study evaluates the global economic effects of the current US RFS2, and the potential contribution from advanced biofuels. Results & discussion: Our simulation results suggest that these mandates lead to an increase of 0.21% in the global gross domestic product in 2022, including an increase of 0.8% in the USA and 0.02% in the rest of the world, relative to our baseline no-RFS scenario. The incremental contributions to gross domestic product from advanced biofuels in 2022 are estimated at 0.41 and 0.04% in the USA and the rest of the world, respectively. Conclusion: Although production costs of advanced biofuels are higher than for conventional biofuels in our model, their economic benefits result from reductions in oil use and their smaller impacts on food markets compared with conventional biofuels. Thus, the US advanced biofuels targets are expected to have positive net economic benefits.

The use of corn for ethanol production in the United States quintupled between 2001 and 2009, generating concerns that this could lead to the conversion of forests and grasslands around the globe, known as indirect land-use change (iLUC). Estimates of iLUC and related food versus fuel concerns rest on the assumption that the corn used for ethanol production in the United States would come primarily from displacing corn exports and land previously used for other crops. A number of modeling efforts based on these assumptions have projected significant iLUC from the increases in the use of corn for ethanol production. The current study tests the veracity of these assumptions through a systematic decomposition analysis of the empirical data from 2001 to 2009. The logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition method (Type I) was used to estimate contributions of different factors to meeting the corn demand for ethanol production. Results show that about 79% of the change in corn used for ethanol production can be attributed to changes in the distribution of domestic corn consumption among different uses. Increases in the domestic consumption share of corn supply contributed only about 5%. The remaining contributions were 19% from added corn production, and 2%more » from stock changes. Yield change accounted for about two-thirds of the contributions from production changes. Thus, the results of this study provide little support for large land-use changes or diversion of corn exports because of ethanol production in the United States during the past decade.« less

The viability of modular pumped storage hydro (m-PSH) is examined in detail through the conceptual design, cost scoping, and economic analysis of three case studies. Modular PSH refers to both the compactness of the project design and the proposed nature of product fabrication and performance. A modular project is assumed to consist of pre-fabricated standardized components and equipment, tested and assembled into modules before arrival on site. This technology strategy could enable m-PSH projects to deploy with less substantial civil construction and equipment component costs. The concept of m-PSH is technically feasible using currently available conventional pumping and turbine equipment, and may offer a path to reducing the project development cycle from inception to commissioning.

As directed by Congress in Section 9505 of the SECURE Water Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), the US Department of Energy (DOE), in consultation with the federal Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) and other federal agencies, including federal dam owners, has prepared a comprehensive assessment examining the effects of climate change on water available for hydropower at federal facilities and on the marketing of power from these federal facilities. This Oak Ridge National Laboratory report, referred to as the “9505 Assessment,” describes the technical basis for the report to Congress that was called for in the SECURE Water Act.