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Summary: The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of ‘local’ when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing and/or sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases1-3. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing4,5. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We developed and deployed improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detected emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identified multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.

Regional connectivity and land travel have been identified as important drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, the generalizability of this finding is understudied outside of well-sampled, highly connected regions. In this study, we investigated the relative contributions of regional and intercontinental connectivity to the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 for Jordan and the Middle East. By integrating genomic, epidemiological and travel data we show that the source of introductions into Jordan was dynamic across 2020, shifting from intercontinental seeding in the early pandemic to more regional seeding for the travel restrictions period. We show that land travel, particularly freight transport, drove introduction risk during the travel restrictions period. High regional connectivity and land travel also drove Jordan's export risk. Our findings emphasize regional connectedness and land travel as drivers of transmission in the Middle East.

The emergence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States (U.S.) went largely undetected due to inadequate testing. New Orleans experienced one of the earliest and fastest accelerating outbreaks, coinciding with Mardi Gras. To gain insight into the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. and how large-scale events accelerate transmission, we sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Louisiana. We show that SARS-CoV-2 in Louisiana had limited diversity compared to other U.S. states and that one introduction of SARS-CoV-2 led to almost all of the early transmission in Louisiana. By analyzing mobility and genomic data, we show that SARS-CoV-2 was already present in New Orleans before Mardi Gras, and the festival dramatically accelerated transmission. Our study provides an understanding of how superspreading during large-scale events played a key role during the early outbreak in the U.S. and can greatly accelerate epidemics.

The highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, first identified in the United Kingdom, has gained a foothold across the world. Using S gene target failure (SGTF) and SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequencing, we investigated the prevalence and dynamics of this variant in the United States (US), tracking it back to its early emergence. We found that, while the fraction of B.1.1.7 varied by state, the variant increased at a logistic rate with a roughly weekly doubling rate and an increased transmission of 40%-50%. We revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the US as early as late November 2020, with community transmission spreading it to most states within months. We show that the US is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 became dominant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

As of January of 2021, the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2, which was first identified in the United Kingdom (U.K.), has gained a strong foothold across the world. Because of the sudden and rapid rise of B.1.1.7, we investigated the prevalence and growth dynamics of this variant in the United States (U.S.), tracking it back to its early emergence and onward local transmission. We found that the RT-qPCR testing anomaly of S gene target failure (SGTF), first observed in the U.K., was a reliable proxy for B.1.1.7 detection. We sequenced 212 B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected from testing facilities in the U.S. from December 2020 to January 2021. We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021. Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Background Successful containment strategies for SARS-CoV-2, the causative virus of the COVID-19 pandemic, have involved widespread population testing that identifies infections early and enables rapid contact tracing. In this study, we developed a rapid and inexpensive RT- qPCR testing pipeline for population-level SARS-CoV-2 detection, and used this pipeline to establish a clinical laboratory dedicated to COVID-19 testing at the University of California San Diego (UCSD) with a processing capacity of 6,000 samples per day and next-day result turnaround times. Methods and findings Using this pipeline, we screened 6,786 healthcare workers and first responders, and 21,220 students, faculty, and staff from UCSD. Additionally, we screened 6,031 preschool-grade 12 students and staff from public and private schools across San Diego County that remained fully or partially open for in-person teaching during the pandemic. Between April 17, 2020 and February 5, 2021, participants provided 161,582 nasal swabs that were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 752 positive tests were obtained, yielding a test positivity rate of 0.47%. While the presence of symptoms was significantly correlated with higher viral load, most of the COVID-19 positive participants who participated in symptom surveys were asymptomatic at the time of testing. The positivity rate among preschool-grade 12 schools that remained open for in-person teaching was similar to the positivity rate at UCSD and lower than that of San Diego County, with the children in private schools being less likely to test positive than the adults at these schools. Conclusions Most schools across the United States have been closed for in-person learning for much of the 2020-2021 school year, and their safe reopening is a national priority. However, as there are no vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 currently available to the majority of school-aged children, the traditional strategies of mandatory masking, physical distancing, and repeated viral testing of students and staff remain key components of risk mitigation in these settings. The data presented here suggest that the safety measures and repeated testing actions taken by participating healthcare and educational facilities were effective in preventing outbreaks, and that a similar combination of risk-mitigation strategies and repeated testing may be successfully adopted by other healthcare and educational systems.

Summary As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing/sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here, we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We develop and deploy improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detect emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identify multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.

BackgroundClustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPRs) are utilized by bacteria to resist encounters with their viruses. Human body surfaces have numerous bacteria that harbor CRISPRs, and their content can provide clues as to the types and features of viruses they may have encountered.ResultsWe investigated the conservation of CRISPR content from streptococci on skin and saliva of human subjects over 8-weeks to determine whether similarities existed in the CRISPR spacer profiles and whether CRISPR spacers were a stable component of each biogeographic site. Most of the CRISPR sequences identified were unique, but a small proportion of spacers from the skin and saliva of each subject matched spacers derived from previously sequenced loci of S. thermophilus and other streptococci. There were significant proportions of CRISPR spacers conserved over the entire 8-week study period for all subjects, and salivary CRISPR spacers sampled in the mornings showed significantly higher levels of conservation than any other time of day. We also found substantial similarities in the spacer repertoires of the skin and saliva of each subject. Many skin-derived spacers matched salivary viruses, supporting that bacteria of the skin may encounter viruses with similar sequences to those found in the mouth. Despite the similarities between skin and salivary spacer repertoires, the variation present was distinct based on each subject and body site.ConclusionsThe conservation of CRISPR spacers in the saliva and the skin of human subjects over the time period studied suggests a relative conservation of the bacteria harboring them.

Viruses are the most abundant members of the human oral microbiome, yet relatively little is known about their biodiversity in humans. To improve our understanding of the DNA viruses that inhabit the human oral cavity, we examined saliva from a cohort of eight unrelated subjects over a 60-day period. Each subject was examined at 11 time points to characterize longitudinal differences in human oral viruses. Our primary goals were to determine whether oral viruses were specific to individuals and whether viral genotypes persisted over time. We found a subset of homologous viral genotypes across all subjects and time points studied, suggesting that certain genotypes may be ubiquitous among healthy human subjects. We also found significant associations between viral genotypes and individual subjects, indicating that viruses are a highly personalized feature of the healthy human oral microbiome. Many of these oral viruses were not transient members of the oral ecosystem, as demonstrated by the persistence of certain viruses throughout the entire 60-day study period. As has previously been demonstrated for bacteria and fungi, membership in the oral viral community was significantly associated with the sex of each subject. Similar characteristics of personalized, sex-specific microflora could not be identified for oral bacterial communities based on 16S rRNA. Our findings that many viruses are stable and individual-specific members of the oral ecosystem suggest that viruses have an important role in the human oral ecosystem.

UnlabelledThe human oral cavity is home to a large and diverse community of viruses that have yet to be characterized in patients with periodontal disease. We recruited and sampled saliva and oral biofilm from a cohort of humans either periodontally healthy or with mild or significant periodontal disease to discern whether there are differences in viral communities that reflect their oral health status. We found communities of viruses inhabiting saliva and the subgingival and supragingival biofilms of each subject that were composed largely of bacteriophage. While there were homologous viruses common to different subjects and biogeographic sites, for most of the subjects, virome compositions were significantly associated with the oral sites from which they were derived. The largest distinctions between virome compositions were found when comparing the subgingival and supragingival biofilms to those of planktonic saliva. Differences in virome composition were significantly associated with oral health status for both subgingival and supragingival biofilm viruses but not for salivary viruses. Among the differences identified in virome compositions was a significant expansion of myoviruses in subgingival biofilm, suggesting that periodontal disease favors lytic phage. We also characterized the bacterial communities in each subject at each biogeographic site by using the V3 hypervariable segment of the 16S rRNA and did not identify distinctions between oral health and disease similar to those found in viral communities. The significantly altered ecology of viruses of oral biofilm in subjects with periodontal disease compared to that of relatively periodontally healthy ones suggests that viruses may serve as useful indicators of oral health status.ImportanceLittle is known about the role or the constituents of viruses as members of the human microbiome. We investigated the composition of human oral viral communities in a group of relatively periodontally healthy subjects or significant periodontitis to determine whether health status may be associated with differences in viruses. We found that most of the viruses present were predators of bacteria. The viruses inhabiting dental plaque were significantly different on the basis of oral health status, while those present in saliva were not. Dental plaque viruses in periodontitis were predicted to be significantly more likely to kill their bacterial hosts than those found in healthy mouths. Because oral diseases such as periodontitis have been shown to have altered bacterial communities, we believe that viruses and their role as drivers of ecosystem diversity are important contributors to the human oral microbiome in health and disease states.

BackgroundDental plaque is home to a diverse and complex community of bacteria, but has generally been believed to be inhabited by relatively few viruses. We sampled the saliva and dental plaque from 4 healthy human subjects to determine whether plaque was populated by viral communities, and whether there were differences in viral communities specific to subject or sample type.ResultsWe found that the plaque was inhabited by a community of bacteriophage whose membership was mostly subject-specific. There was a significant proportion of viral homologues shared between plaque and salivary viromes within each subject, suggesting that some oral viruses were present in both sites. We also characterized Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPRs) in oral streptococci, as their profiles provide clues to the viruses that oral bacteria may be able to counteract. While there were some CRISPR spacers specific to each sample type, many more were shared across sites and were highly subject specific. Many CRISPR spacers matched viruses present in plaque, suggesting that the evolution of CRISPR loci may have been specific to plaque-derived viruses.ConclusionsOur findings of subject specificity to both plaque-derived viruses and CRISPR profiles suggest that human viral ecology may be highly personalized.

Author(s): Hayden C. Metsky [1, 2]; Christian B. Matranga [1]; Shirlee Wohl [1, 3]; Stephen F. Schaffner [1, 3, 4]; Catherine A. Freije [1, 3]; Sarah M. Winnicki [1]; Kendra [...]

Author(s): Nathan D. Grubaugh [1]; Jason T. Ladner [2]; Moritz U. G. Kraemer [3, 4, 5]; Gytis Dudas [6]; Amanda L. Tan [7]; Karthik Gangavarapu [1]; Michael R. Wiley [2, [...]

Quantitative reverse transcription-PCR is used to measure the levels of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and enteroviruses in coastal waters near the US-Mexico border and they are compared to those of the conventional fecal indicators, Escherichia coli and enterococci. The regression analysis has shown a remarkable correlation between the densities of both fecal bacterial indicators and the levels of HAV and enterovirus, which has supported the use of conventional bacterial indicators to predict the levels of these viruses in recreational marine waters.

The recent Ebola epidemic exemplified the importance of understanding and controlling emerging infections. Despite the importance of T cells in clearing virus during acute infection, little is known about Ebola-specific CD8+ T cell responses. We investigated immune responses of individuals infected with Ebola virus (EBOV) during the 2013-2016 West Africa epidemic in Sierra Leone, where the majority of the >28,000 EBOV disease (EVD) cases occurred. We examined T cell memory responses to seven of the eight Ebola proteins (GP, sGP, NP, VP24, VP30, VP35, and VP40) and associated HLA expression in survivors. Of the 30 subjects included in our analysis, CD8+ T cells from 26 survivors responded to at least one EBOV antigen. A minority, 10 of 26 responders (38%), made CD8+ T cell responses to the viral GP or sGP. In contrast, 25 of the 26 responders (96%) made response to viral NP, 77% to VP24 (20 of 26), 69% to VP40 (18 of 26), 42% (11 of 26) to VP35, with no response to VP30. Individuals making CD8+ T cells to EBOV VP24, VP35, and VP40 also made CD8+ T cells to NP, but rarely to GP. We identified 34 CD8+ T cell epitopes for Ebola. Our data indicate the immunodominance of the EBOV NP-specific T cell response and suggest that its inclusion in a vaccine along with the EBOV GP would best mimic survivor responses and help boost cell-mediated immunity during vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early and robust T cell responses have been associated with survival from Lassa fever (LF), but the Lassa virus-specific memory responses have not been well characterized. Regions within the virus surface glycoprotein (GPC) and nucleoprotein (NP) are the main targets of the Lassa virus-specific T cell responses, but, to date, only a few T cell epitopes within these proteins have been identified. We identified GPC and NP regions containing T cell epitopes and HLA haplotypes from LF survivors and used predictive HLA-binding algorithms to identify putative epitopes, which were then experimentally tested using autologous survivor samples. We identified 12 CD8-positive (CD8+) T cell epitopes, including epitopes common to both Nigerian and Sierra Leonean survivors. These data should be useful for the identification of dominant Lassa virus-specific T cell responses in Lassa fever survivors and vaccinated individuals as well as for designing vaccines that elicit cell-mediated immunity. IMPORTANCE The high morbidity and mortality associated with clinical cases of Lassa fever, together with the lack of licensed vaccines and limited and partially effective interventions, make Lassa virus (LASV) an important health concern in its regions of endemicity in West Africa. Previous infection with LASV protects from disease after subsequent exposure, providing a framework for designing vaccines to elicit similar protective immunity. Multiple major lineages of LASV circulate in West Africa, and therefore, ideal vaccine candidates should elicit immunity to all lineages. We therefore sought to identify common T cell epitopes between Lassa fever survivors from Sierra Leone and Nigeria, where distinct lineages circulate. We identified three such epitopes derived from highly conserved regions within LASV proteins. In this process, we also identified nine other T cell epitopes. These data should help in the design of an effective pan-LASV vaccine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]