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Using models to understand the complex interrelationships of human ecology requires knowledge of their limitations and a conceptual framework for determining priorities. Two primary techniques that might be utilized for the Human Dimensions of Global Change Program are 'physical flows' and 'actor system' views. Combining them allows the creation of a model which identifies the interaction between human and natural systems.

The backcasting methodology is proposed for scenario analysis of changes over 20 - 100 years into the future. Backcasting can be applied to areas of human activity; here it is assumed that the method will be used to analyse environment and development problems at the national level as part of studies undertaken within the Human Dimensions of Global Change Program. Some indications are given as to how to integrate natural system considerations into the human systems scenarios. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Byline: John B. Robinson, Deborah Herbert The links between climate issues and sustainable development are manifold. Given these interconnections, the lack of close integration of the sustainable development and climate change literatures is puzzling; part of the reason for this lack of connectivity may be the very different research and policy traditions out of which each field developed. This paper argues that integrating climate change and sustainable development approaches, concepts and methods may have some important benefits. To demonstrate this point, we briefly discuss recent developments in both the climate change and sustainable development fields and then turn to the question of how to integrate them. The analysis suggests several conclusions of possible relevance to climate change and sustainable development research, including the need for an approach to scenario analysis that integrates across all aspects of climate change and sustainable development research, and the critical importance of alternative development paths and the assumptions about the reference case or baseline that underlie any analysis.

In the design and operations industries, the performance gap is a common discrepancy found between predicted building energy performance and actual energy performance. The performance gap is considered to have negative impacts for the brand of ‘green’ buildings, designers and operators. A socially based analogue is proposed here: the qualitative performance gap, defined as the perceived gap between what inhabitants expect and their actual experience of the building environment. This concept is explored at a regenerative Living Lab: the Centre for Interactive Research on Sustainability (CIRS) in Vancouver, Canada. ‘Official’ and ‘lived’ stories about the building were interpreted from sources of building information and interviews. Expectations about and forgiveness of building performance were gained from pre- and post-occupancy evaluations and interviews. The solution to the qualitative performance gap is not to eliminate it, but, in line with the concept of interactive adaptivity, to use the gap to generate new stories and new consequences for human wellbeing. The qualitative performance gap is thus conceived as positively generative, of new stories of place and identity. This work recommends crafting an ‘official story’ of social aspirations, and a communication feedback loop amongst designers, operators and building inhabitants, transparently sharing successes and failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Author(s): John B. Robinson [1]; Stewart J. Cohen [1, 2] Sir The valuable Commentary by Hans von Storch and Nico Stehr [1] is of critical importance for what it tells [...]