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Plants are subject to tradeoffs among growth strategies such that adaptations for optimal growth in one condition can preclude optimal growth in another. Thus, we predicted that a plant species that responds positively to one global change treatment would be less likely than average to respond positively to another treatment, particularly for pairs of treatments that favor distinct traits. We examined plant species abundances in 39 global change experiments manipulating two or more of the following: CO2, nitrogen, phosphorus, water, temperature, or disturbance. Overall, the directional response of a species to one treatment was 13% more likely than expected to oppose its response to a another single-factor treatment. This tendency was detectable across the global dataset but held little predictive power for individual treatment combinations or within individual experiments. While tradeoffs in the ability to respond to different global change treatments exert discernible global effects, other forces obscure their influence in local communities.

We report a space-for-time substitution study predicting the impacts of climate change on vegetated maritime Antarctic soils. Analyses of soils from under Deschampsia antarctica sampled from three islands along a 2,200 km climatic gradient indicated that those from sub-Antarctica had higher moisture, organic matter and carbon (C) concentrations, more depleted δ13C values, lower concentrations of the fungal biomarker ergosterol and higher concentrations of bacterial PLFA biomarkers and plant wax n-alkane biomarkers than those from maritime Antarctica. Shallow soils (2 cm depth) were wetter, and had higher concentrations of organic matter, ergosterol and bacterial PLFAs, than deeper soils (4 cm and 8 cm depths). Correlative analyses indicated that factors associated with climate change (increased soil moisture, C and organic matter concentrations, and depleted δ13C contents) are likely to give rise to increases in Gram negative bacteria, and decreases in Gram positive bacteria and fungi, in maritime Antarctic soils. Bomb-14C analyses indicated that sub-Antarctic soils at all depths contained significant amounts of modern 14C (C fixed from the atmosphere post c. 1955), whereas modern 14C was restricted to depths of 2 cm and 4 cm in maritime Antarctica. The oldest C (c. 1,745 years BP) was present in the southernmost soil. The higher nitrogen (N) concentrations and δ15N values recorded in the southernmost soil were attributed to N inputs from bird guano. Based on these analyses, we conclude that 5–8 °C rises in air temperature, together with associated increases in precipitation, are likely to have substantial impacts on maritime Antarctic soils, but that, at the rates of climate warming predicted under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios, these impacts are likely to take at least a century to manifest themselves.

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity–ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously.

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1–315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species’ populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales.