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Context Coastal landscapes evolve in response to sea-level rise (SLR) through a variety of geologic processes and ecological feedbacks. When the SLR rate surpasses the rate at which these processes build elevation and drive lateral migration, inundation is likely. Objectives To examine the role of land cover diversity and composition in landscape response to SLR across the northeastern United States. Methods Using an existing probabilistic framework, we quantify the probability of inundation, a measure of vulnerability, under different SLR scenarios on the coastal landscape. Resistant areas—wherein a dynamic response is anticipated—are defined as unlikely (p Results Modeling results suggest that by the 2050s, 44% of low-lying, habitable land in the region is unlikely to inundate, further declining to 36% by the 2080s. In addition to a decrease in SLR resistance with time, these results show an increasing uncertainty that the coastal landscape will continue to evolve in response to SLR as it has in the past. We also find that resistance to SLR is correlated with land cover composition, wherein sites containing land cover types adaptable to SLR impacts show greater potential to undergo biogeomorphic state shifts rather than inundating with time. Conclusions Our findings support other studies that have highlighted the importance of ecological composition and diversity in stabilizing the physical landscape and suggest that flexible planning strategies, such as adaptive management, are particularly well suited for SLR preparation in diverse coastal settings.

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species' geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species' breeding range within 1-2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, iPlover, to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications. (c) 2017 The Authors. Wildlife Society Bulletin published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society. North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; U.S. Department of the Interior Hurricane Sandy recovery program under the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act; U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program We thank our federal and private collaborators who supervised, participated in, and coordinated field-testing and data collection (listed in Table S1), particularly H. Abouelezz and T. Pearl for providing spatial data for the Breezy Point Unit of the Gateway National Recreation Area. A. Milliken and A. Hecht of the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, respectively, provided funding and motivation for this research. S. Haefner of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provided code snippets that were used in an alpha version of the iPhone application. We thank N. Booth, M. Schneider, and M. Wernimont of the USGS Office of Water Information and T. Kern and H. Schweizer of the USGS Fort Collins Science Center for their support throughout the development of iPlover. K. Weber of the USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center provided analyses of dune characteristics for the Rockaway Peninsula used in our Geographic Information System analyses. Finally, we appreciate comments on earlier versions of this manuscript made by A. Hecht, N. Ganju, the editorial staff at the Wildlife Society Bulletin, Associate Editor Donahgy Cannon, and 4 anonymous reviewers. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of the Interior Hurricane Sandy recovery program under the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal and Marine Geology Program, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration conducted geophysical and hydrographic surveys, respectively, along the inner-continental shelf of Fenwick and Assateague Islands, Maryland and Virginia over the last 40 years. High resolution bathymetry and backscatter data derived from surveys over the last decade are used to describe the morphology and presence of sand ridges on the inner-continental shelf and measure the change in the position of smaller-scale (10–100 s of meters) seafloor features. Bathymetric surveys from the last 30 years link decadal-scale sand ridge migration patterns to the high-resolution measurements of smaller-scale bedform features. Sand ridge morphology on the inner-shelf changes across-shore and alongshore. Areas of similar sand ridge morphology are separated alongshore by zones where ridges are less pronounced or completely transected by transverse dunes. Seafloor-change analyses derived from backscatter data over a 4–7 year period show that southerly dune migration increases in magnitude from north to south, and the east-west pattern of bedform migration changes ~ 10 km north of the Maryland-Virginia state line. Sand ridge morphology and occurrence and bedform migration changes may be connected to observed changes in geologic framework including topographic highs, deflated zones, and sand availability. Additionally, changes in sand ridge occurrence and morphology may help explain changes in the long-term shoreline trends along Fenwick and Assateague Islands. Although the data presented here cannot quantitatively link sand ridges to sediment transport and shoreline change, it does present a compelling relationship between inner-shelf sand availability and movement, sand ridge occurrence and morphology, geologic framework, and shoreline behavior.

Understanding land loss or resilience in response to sea-level rise (SLR) requires spatially extensive and continuous datasets to capture landscape variability. We investigate sensitivity and skill of a model that predicts dynamic response likelihood to SLR across the northeastern U.S. by exploring several data inputs and outcomes. Using elevation and land cover datasets, we determine where data error is likely, quantify its effect on predictions, and evaluate its influence on prediction confidence. Results show data error is concentrated in low-lying areas with little impact on prediction skill, as the inherent correlation between the datasets can be exploited to reduce data uncertainty using Bayesian inference. This suggests the approach may be extended to regions with limited data availability and/or poor quality. Furthermore, we verify that model sensitivity in these first-order landscape change assessments is well-matched to larger coastal process uncertainties, for which process-based models are important complements to further reduce uncertainty.

Micropaleontological data provide a strong actualistic basis for detailed interpretations of Quaternary paleoenvironmental change. The 90 m-thick Quaternary record of the Albemarle Embayment in the mid-Atlantic coastal plain of the USA provides an excellent opportunity to use such an approach in a region where the details of Quaternary environmental change are poorly known. The foraminiferal record in nine cores from the northern Outer Banks, east of Albemarle Sound, North Carolina, indicates the deposition of subhorizontal, mostly open-marine early to late Pleistocene units unconformably upon a basement of late Pliocene reduced-oxygen, fine-grained, shelf-basin deposits. Pollen data record several warm–cool fluctuations within the early to mid-Pleistocene deposits. Diatom data indicate that some fresh and brackish-water units occur within the generally open-marine Pleistocene succession. A channel cut by the paleo-Roanoke River during the last glacial sea-level lowstand occurs in the northern part of the study area. Pollen indicates that the basal fluvial valley fill accumulated in cooler than modern climate conditions in the latest Pleistocene. Overlying silts and muds accumulated under cool climatic, estuarine conditions according to diatom and pollen data. Radiocarbon ages from the estuarine deposits indicate that the bulk of these sediments accumulated during the latest Pleistocene. The estuarine channel-fill deposits are overlain by Holocene open-marine sands deposited as the rising sea transgressed into the estuary approximately 8.5 to 9.0 kyr BP. Within the barrier island drill cores of this study, fully marine sedimentation occurred throughout the Holocene. However, immediately west of the present barrier island, mid- to late Holocene estuarine deposits underlie the modern Albemarle Sound. The islands that currently form a continuous barrier across the mouth of Albemarle Sound have a complex history of Holocene construction and destruction and large portions of them may be less than 3 kyr old. The barrier island sands overlie open-marine sands of Colington Shoal in the north and to the south overlie fluvial and marine sand filling paleo-Roanoke tributary valleys. The Pleistocene sediments underlying the northern Outer Banks study area are mainly of open inner to mid-shelf origin. If, as is likely, sea level continues to rise, a return to such environmental conditions is likely in the near future.

Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise (SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not sufficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a variable in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncertainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases.

A model that evaluates the likelihood of coastal inundation (flooding) and dynamical response (adaptation) as sea levels rise shows that, for the northeastern US, about 70% of the coast has some capacity to respond dynamically and alter inundation risk. Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1,2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30 × 30 m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 km2 of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Salt marshes are important coastal environments that provide key ecological services. As sea level rise has accelerated globally, concerns about the ability of salt marshes to survive submergence are increasing. Previous estimates of likely survival of salt marshes were based on ratios of sea level rise to marsh platform accretion. Here we took advantage of an unusual, long-term (1979–2015), spatially detailed comparison of changes in a representative New England salt marsh to provide an empirical estimate of habitat losses based on actual measurements. We show prominent changes in habitat mosaic within the marsh, consistent and coincident with increased submergence and coastal erosion. Model results suggest that at current rates of sea level rise, marsh platform accretion, habitat loss, and with the limitation of the widespread “coastal squeeze”, the entire ecosystem might disappear by the beginning of the next century, a fate that might be likely for many salt marshes elsewhere. Meta-analysis of available data suggests that 40 to 95% of the world's salt marshes will be submerged, depending on whether sea level rise remains at current or reaches anticipated rates for the end of this century.

The vulnerability of coastal systems to hazards such as storms and sea-level rise is typically characterized using a combination of ground and manned airborne systems that have limited spatial or temporal scales. Structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to imagery acquired by unmanned aerial systems (UAS) offers a rapid and inexpensive means to produce high-resolution topographic and visual reflectance datasets that rival existing lidar and imagery standards. Here, we use SfM to produce an elevation point cloud, an orthomosaic, and a digital elevation model (DEM) from data collected by UAS at a beach and wetland site in Massachusetts, USA. We apply existing methods to (a) determine the position of shorelines and foredunes using a feature extraction routine developed for lidar point clouds and (b) map land cover from the rasterized surfaces using a supervised classification routine. In both analyses, we experimentally vary the input datasets to understand the benefits and limitations of UAS-SfM for coastal vulnerability assessment. We find that (a) geomorphic features are extracted from the SfM point cloud with near-continuous coverage and sub-meter precision, better than was possible from a recent lidar dataset covering the same area; and (b) land cover classification is greatly improved by including topographic data with visual reflectance, but changes to resolution (when

The inner continental shelf off the northern Outer Banks of North Carolina was mapped using sidescan sonar, interferometric swath bathymetry, and high-resolution chirp and boomer subbottom profiling systems. We use this information to describe the shallow stratigraphy, reinterpret formation mechanisms of some shoal features, evaluate local relative sea-levels during the Late Pleistocene, and provide new constraints, via recent bedform evolution, on regional sediment transport patterns. The study area is approximately 290 km long by 11 km wide, extending from False Cape, Virginia to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, in water depths ranging from 6 to 34 m. Late Pleistocene sedimentary units comprise the shallow geologic framework of this region and determine both the morphology of the inner shelf and the distribution of sediment sources and sinks. We identify Pleistocene sedimentary units beneath Diamond Shoals that may have provided a geologic template for the location of modern Cape Hatteras and earlier paleo-capes during the Late Pleistocene. These units indicate shallow marine deposition 15–25 m below present sea-level. The uppermost Pleistocene unit may have been deposited as recently as Marine Isotope Stage 3, although some apparent ages for this timing may be suspect. Paleofluvial valleys incised during the Last Glacial Maximum traverse the inner shelf throughout the study area and dissect the Late Pleistocene units. Sediments deposited in the valleys record the Holocene transgression and provide insight into the evolutionary history of the barrier-estuary system in this region. The relationship between these valleys and adjacent shoal complexes suggests that the paleo-Roanoke River did not form the Albemarle Shelf Valley complex as previously proposed; a major fluvial system is absent and thus makes the formation of this feature enigmatic. Major shoal features in the study area show mobility at decadal to centennial timescales, including nearly a kilometer of shoal migration over the past 134 yr. Sorted bedforms occupy ~ 1000 km 2 of seafloor in Raleigh Bay, and indicate regional sediment transport patterns between Capes Hatteras and Lookout that help explain long-term sediment accumulation and morphologic development. Portions of the inner continental shelf with relatively high sediment abundance are characterized by shoals and shoreface-attached ridges, and where sediment is less abundant, the seafloor is dominated by sorted bedforms. These relationships are also observed in other passive margin settings, suggesting a continuum of shelf morphology that may have broad application for interpreting inner shelf sedimentation patterns.

Coastal storms have consequences for human lives and infrastructure but also create important early successional habitats for myriad species. For example, storm-induced overwash creates nesting habitat for shorebirds like piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). We examined how piping plover habitat extent and location changed on barrier islands in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia after Hurricane Sandy made landfall following the 2012 breeding season. We modeled nesting habitat using a nest presence/absence dataset that included characterizations of coastal morphology and vegetation. Using a Bayesian network, we predicted nesting habitat for each study site for the years 2010/2011, 2012, and 2014/2015 based on remotely sensed spatial datasets (e.g., lidar, orthophotos). We found that Hurricane Sandy increased piping plover habitat by 9 to 300% at 4 of 5 study sites but that one site saw a decrease in habitat by 27%. The amount, location, and longevity of new habitat appeared to be influenced by the level of human development at each site. At three of the five sites, the amount of habitat created and the time new habitat persisted were inversely related to the amount of development. Furthermore, the proportion of new habitat created in high-quality overwash was inversely related to the level of development on study areas, from 17% of all new habitat in overwash at one of the most densely developed sites to 80% of all new habitat at an undeveloped site. We also show that piping plovers exploited new habitat after the storm, with 14-57% of all nests located in newly created habitat in the 2013 breeding season. Our results quantify the importance of storms in creating and maintaining coastal habitats for beach-nesting species like piping plovers, and these results suggest a negative correlation between human development and beneficial ecological impacts of these natural disturbances. U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall Post-Doctoral FellowshipUnited States Geological Survey; North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative Funding for this work was provided through a U.S. Geological Survey Mendenhall Post-Doctoral Fellowship awarded to S. Zeigler, with funding for this fellowship made through a grant to E.R. Thieler from the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Funders did not play a role in study design, data collection or analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater response to island morphology by evaluating changes at three sites. This interdependence can have a profound effect on ecosystem composition in these fragile coastal landscapes under long-term changing climatic conditions. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

[1] Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

Background: Total hip joint replacement (THR) is a high volume, effective intervention for hip osteoarthritis (OA). However, indications and determinants of outcome remain unclear. The 'EUROHIP consortium' has undertaken a cohort study to investigate these questions. This paper describes the variations in disease severity in this cohort and the relationships between clinical and radiographic severity, and explores some of the determinants of variation. Methods: A minimum of 50 consecutive, consenting patients coming to primary THR for primary hip OA in each of the 20 participating orthopaedic centres entered the study. Pre-operative data included demographics, employment and educational attainment, drug utilisation, and involvement of other joints. Each subject completed the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC – Likert version 3.1). Other data collected at the time of surgery included the prosthesis used and American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) status. Pre-operative radiographs were read by the same three readers for Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L;) grading and Osteoarthritis Research Society International (OARSI) atlas features. Regression analyses were carried out. Results: Data from 1327 subjects has been analysed. The mean age of the group was 65.7 years, and there were more women (53.4%) than men. Most (79%) were ASA status 1 or 2. Reported disease duration was 5 years or less in 69.2%. Disease in other joint sites was common. Radiographs were available in 1051 subjects and the K&L; grade was 3 or 4 in 95.8%. There was much more variation in clinical severity (WOMAC score); the mean total WOMAC score was 59.2 (SD 16.1). The radiographic severity showed no correlation with WOMAC scores. Significantly higher WOMAC scores (worse disease) were seen in older people, women, those with obesity, those with worse general health, and those with lower educational attainment. Conclusion: 1. Clinical disease severity varies widely at the time of THR for OA. 2. In advanced hip OA clinical severity shows no correlation with radiographic severity. 3. Simple scores of pain and disability do not reflect the complexity of decision-making about who should have a THR.

For more than a century, the origin and evolution of the set of cuspate forelands known as the Carolina Capes—Hatteras, Lookout, Fear, and Romain—off the eastern coast of the United States have been discussed and debated. The consensus conceptual model is not only that these capes existed through much or all of the Holocene transgression, but also that their number has not changed. Here we describe bathymetric, lithologic, seismic, and chronologic data that suggest another cape may have existed between Capes Hatteras and Lookout during the early to middle Holocene. This cape likely formed at the distal end of the Neuse-Tar-Pamlico fluvial system during the early Holocene transgression, when this portion of the shelf was flooded ca. 9 cal (calibrated) kyr B.P., and was probably abandoned by ca. 4 cal kyr B.P., when the shoreline attained its present general configuration. Previously proposed mechanisms for cape formation suggest that the large-scale, rhythmic pattern of the Carolina Capes arose from a hydrodynamic template or the preexisting geologic framework. Numerical modeling, however, suggests that the number and spacing of capes can be dynamic, and that a coast can self-organize in response to a high-angle-wave instability in shoreline shape. In shoreline evolution model simulations, smaller cuspate forelands are subsumed by larger neighbors over millennial time scales through a process of ‘cape capture.’ The suggested former cape in Raleigh Bay represents the first interpreted geological evidence of dynamic abandonment suggested by the self-organization hypothesis. Cape capture may be a widespread process in coastal environments with large-scale rhythmic shoreline features; its preservation in the sedimentary record will vary according to geologic setting, physical processes, and sea-level history.

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey began conducting scientific assessments of coastal vulnerability to potential future sea- and lake-level changes in 22 National Park Service sea- and lakeshore units. Coastal park units chosen for the assessment included a variety of geological and physical settings along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of Alaska, Caribbean, and Great Lakes shorelines. This research is motivated by the need to understand and anticipate coastal changes caused by accelerating sea-level rise, as well as lake-level changes caused by climate change, over the next century. The goal of these assessments is to provide information that can be used to make long-term (decade to century) management decisions. Here we analyze the results of coastal vulnerability assessments for several coastal national park units. Index-based assessments quantify the likelihood that physical changes may occur based on analysis of the following variables: tidal range, ice cover, wave height,...

Seismic and core data, combined with amino acid racemization and strontium-isotope age data, enable the definition of the Quaternary stratigraphic framework and recognition of geologic controls on the development of the modern coastal system of North Carolina, U.S.A. Seven regionally continuous high amplitude reflections are defined which bound six seismic stratigraphic units consisting of multiple regionally discontinuous depositional sequences and parasequence sets, and enable an understanding of the evolution of this margin. Data reveal the progressive eastward progradation and aggradation of the Quaternary shelf. The early Pleistocene inner shelf occurs at a depth of ca. 20–40 m beneath the western part of the modern estuarine system (Pamlico Sound). A mid- to outer shelf lowstand terrace (also early Pleistocene) with shelf sand ridge deposits comprising parasequence sets within a transgressive systems tract, occurs at a deeper level (ca. 45–70 m) beneath the modern barrier island system (the Outer Banks) and northern Pamlico Sound. Seismic and foraminiferal paleoenvironmental data from cores indicate the occurrence of lowstand strandplain shoreline deposits on the early to middle Pleistocene shelf. Middle to late Pleistocene deposits occur above a prominent unconformity and marine flooding surface that truncates underlying units, and contain numerous filled fluvial valleys that are incised into the early and middle Pleistocene deposits. The stratigraphic framework suggests margin progradation and aggradation modified by an increase in the magnitude of sea-level fluctuations during the middle to late Pleistocene, expressed as falling stage, lowstand, transgressive and highstand systems tracts. Thick stratigraphic sequences occur within the middle Pleistocene section, suggesting the occurrence of high capacity fluvial point sources debouching into the area from the west and north. Furthermore, the antecedent topography plays a significant role in the evolution of the geomorphology and stratigraphy of this marginal system.

The Hudson Shelf Valley (HSV) is the largest physiographic feature on the U.S. mid-Atlantic continental shelf. The 150-km long valley is the submerged extension of the ancestral Hudson River Valley that connects to the Hudson Canyon. Unlike other incised valleys on the mid-Atlantic shelf, it has not been infilled with sediment during the Holocene. Analyses of multibeam bathymetry, acoustic backscatter intensity, and high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal morphologic and stratigraphic evidence for a catastrophic meltwater flood event that formed the modern HSV. The valley and its distal deposits record a discrete flood event that carved 15-m high banks, formed a 120-km2 field of 3- to 6-m high bedforms, and deposited a subaqueous delta on the outer shelf. The HSV is inferred to have been carved initially by precipitation and meltwater runoff during the advance of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, and later by the drainage of early proglacial lakes through stable spillways. A flood resulting from the failure of the terminal moraine dam at the Narrows between Staten Island and Long Island, New York, allowed glacial lakes in the Hudson and Ontario basins to drain across the continental shelf. Water level changes in the Hudson River basin associated with the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Iroquois, Vermont, and Albany around 11,450 14C year BP (∼ 13,350 cal BP) may have precipitated dam failure at the Narrows. This 3200 km3 discharge of freshwater entered the North Atlantic proximal to the Gulf Stream and may have affected thermohaline circulation at the onset of the Intra-Allerod Cold Period. Based on bedform characteristics and fluvial morphology in the HSV, the maximum freshwater flux during the flood event is estimated to be ∼ 0.46 Sv for a duration of ∼ 80 days.

The U.S. Geological Survey is examining effects of future sea-level rise on the coastal landscape from Maine to Virginia by producing spatially explicit, probabilistic predictions using sea-level projections, vertical land movement rates (due to isostacy), elevation data, and land-cover data. Sea-level-rise scenarios used as model inputs are generated by using multiple sources of information, including Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models following representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. A Bayesian network is used to develop a predictive coastal response model that integrates the sea-level, elevation, and land-cover data with assigned probabilities that account for interactions with coastal geomorphology as well as the corresponding ecological and societal systems it supports. The effects of sea-level rise are presented as (1) level of landscape submergence and (2) coastal response type characterized as either static (that is, inundation) or dynamic (that is, landform or landscape change). Results are produced at a spatial scale of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). The probabilistic predictions can be applied to landscape management decisions based on sea-level-rise effects as well as on assessments of the prediction uncertainty and need for improved data or fundamental understanding. This report describes the methods used to produce predictions, including information on input datasets; the modeling approach; model outputs; data-quality-control procedures; and information on how to access the data and metadata online.

A new morphological-behaviour model is used to simulate evolution of coastal morphology associated with cross-shore translations of the shoreface, barrier, and estuary. The model encapsulates qualitative principles drawn from established geological concepts that are parameterized to provide quantitative predictions of morphological change on geological time scales (order 10 3 years), as well as shorter time scales applicable for long-term coastal management (order 10 1 to 10 2 years). Changes in sea level, and sediment volume within the shoreface, barrier, and estuary, drive the model behaviour. Further parameters, defining substrate erodibility, sediment composition, and time-dependent shoreface response, constrain the evolution of the shoreface towards an equilibrium profile. Results from numerical experiments are presented for the low-gradient autochthonous setting of North Carolina and the steep allochthonous setting of the Washington shelf. Simulations in the Currituck region of North Carolina examined the influence of sediment supply, substrate composition, and substrate erodibility on barrier transgression. Results demonstrate that the presence of a lithified substrate reduces the rate of barrier transgression compared to scenarios where an erodible, sand-rich substrate exists. Simulations of the Washington coast, 20 km north of the Columbia River, confirmed that the model can reproduce complex stratigraphy involving regressive and transgressive phases of coastal evolution. Results suggest that the first major addition of sediment to the shelf occurred around 12 900 years ago and resulted from the rapid addition of sediment volume from the Columbia River attributed to the Missoula floods. This was followed by a period where little or no sediment was added (12 400–9100 BP) and a third period when most sediment was added to the shelf (9100 BP to present) from the Columbia River. Comparing results from each setting demonstrates an indirect control that substrate slope has on shoreface transgression rates. Shoreface transgression is shown to be sensitive to the rate of estuarine sedimentation, with the sensitivity increasing as substrate slope decreases.

Seismic surveys in the eastern Albemarle Sound, adjacent tributaries and the inner continental shelf define the regional geologic framework and provide insight into the sedimentary evolution of the northern North Carolina coastal system. Lithoand chronostratigraphic data are derived from eight drill sites on the Outer Banks barrier islands, and the Mobil #1 well in eastern Albemarle Sound. Within the study area, parallel-bedded, gently dipping Miocene beds occur at 95 to N160 m below sea level (m bsl), and are overlain by a southward-thickening Pliocene unit characterized by steeply inclined, southward-prograding beds. The lower Pliocene unit consists of three seismic sequences. The 55–60 m thick Quaternary section unconformably overlies the Pliocene unit, and consists of 18 seismic sequences exhibiting numerous incised channel-fill facies. Shallow stratigraphy (b40 m bsl) is dominated by complex fill patterns within the incised paleo-Roanoke River valley. Radiocarbon and amino-acid racemization (AAR) ages indicate that the valley-fill is latest Pleistocene to Holocene in age. At least six distinct valley-fill units are identified in the seismic data. Cores in the valley-fill contain a 3–6 m thick basal fluvial channel deposit that is overlain by a 15 m thick unit of interlaminated muds and sands of brackish water origin that exhibit increasing marine influence upwards. Organic materials within the interlaminated deposits have ages of 13–11 cal. ka. The interlaminated deposits within the valley are overlain by several units that comprise shallow marine sediments (bay-mouth and shoreface environments) that consist of silty, fine- to medium-grained sands containing open neritic foraminifera, suggesting that this area lacked a fronting barrier island system and was an open embayment from ~10 ka to ~4.5 ka. Seismic data show that initial infilling of the paleo-Roanoke River valley occurred from the north and west during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene. Later infilling

Geological studies offshore of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina reveal subtle large-scale regions of coarse sand with gravel and shell hash (widths between 100 and 200 m and negative relief of ∼1 m) that trend obliquely to the coast. It was previously suggested that these regions serve as conduits for sand exchange between the shoreface and inner shelf during storm-associated downwelling. Consequently they were classified as rippled scour depressions. More recently, the role of alongshore flows and self-organization as a result of inhibited settling of fine sand has been discussed. In this study, 45 days of near-bed current measurements were analyzed using benthic boundary layer and sediment transport models to examine the role of along- and cross-shore flows in driving sediment transport at this site. The wind climate was found to be a dominant influence on near-bed flows. Six distinct sediment transport events were recognized. During these events, sediment transport models show that bedload transport is directed mainly in the cross-shore direction, while suspended sediments are directed alongshore to the southwest. Current observations during these sediment transport events provide no evidence of cross-shore sediment transport caused by steady downwelling currents. Instead, benthic boundary layer model results are used to show that differences in bed roughness between the coarse areas of the seabed within the “rippled scour depressions” and the finer areas of the inner shelf are more pronounced during increasingly energetic wave and current conditions. The enhanced difference in roughness results in increased turbulence intensities over coarse regions inhibiting the deposition of the fine sand that is resuspended over the shelf during these events relative to finer areas over the shelf. Findings from this study contribute to explaining the observed long-term persistence of these features.

Recent observations of inner continental shelves in many regions show numerous collections of relatively coarse sediment, which extend kilometers in the cross-shore direction and are on the order of 100 m wide. These “rippled scour depressions” have been interpreted to indicate concentrated cross-shelf currents. However, recent observations strongly suggest that they are associated with sediment transport along-shore rather than cross-shore. A new hypothesis for the origin of these features involves the large wave-generated ripples that form in the coarse material. Wave motions interacting with these large roughness elements generate near-bed turbulence that is greatly enhanced relative to that in other areas. This enhances entrainment and inhibits settling of fine material in an area dominated by coarse sediment. The fine sediment is then carried by mean currents past the coarse accumulations, and deposited where the bed is finer. We hypothesize that these interactions constitute a feedback tending to produce accumulations of fine material separated by self-perpetuating patches of coarse sediments. As with many types of self-organized bedforms, small features would interact as they migrate, leading to a better-organized, larger-scale pattern. As an initial test of this hypothesis, we use a numerical model treating the transport of coarse and fine sediment fractions, treated as functions of the local bed composition—a proxy for the presence of large roughness elements in coarse areas. Large-scale sorted patterns exhibiting the main characteristics of the natural features result robustly in the model, indicating that this new hypothesis offers a plausible explanation for the phenomena.

Two major pulses of sea-level rise are thought to have taken place since the last glacial maximum — meltwater pulses (mwp) 1A (12 cal ka) and 1B (9.5 cal ka). Between mwp 1B and about 6 cal ka, many of the complex coastal ecosystems which ring the world’s oceans began to form. Here we report data for rhenium, carbon isotopes, total organic carbon, and fossil oysters from Chesapeake Bay which span the transition from fresh to brackish water conditions in the bay in the mid-Holocene. These data constrain sea-level change and resulting environmental change in the bay. They indicate that the transition was rapid, and that it was produced by (1) a third pulse of rapid eustatic sea-level rise, or (2) a geometry of the prehistoric Chesapeake Bay basin which predisposed it to a nonlinear response to a steadily rising sea level. Similar nonlinear changes in vulnerable coastal environments are likely to take place in the future due to polar warming, regardless of the timing or rate of sea-level rise.

The U.S. Geological Survey initiated a research effort in 2014 to define the geologic framework of the Delmarva Peninsula inner continental shelf, which included new data collection and assembly of relevant extant datasets. Between 2006 and 2011, Science Applications International Corporation, under contract to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service, carried out 23 hydrographic surveys covering more than 4,100 square kilometers of the continental shelf using Reson multibeam echosounders and Klein towed sidescan sonars to update nautical charts along the Delmarva Peninsula. Acoustic backscatter data from these instruments are valuable for characterizing aspects of shallow geologic framework, including seafloor geology, sediment transport pathways, and marine resources. The data cover an area that extends from the entrance of Delaware Bay, Delaware, south to Parramore Island, Virginia, in water depths of about 3 to 35 meters below mean lower low water. Data were collected along lines spaced 40 meters apart, resulting in 40 to 100 percent seafloor coverage for multibeam bathymetry. Processed bathymetric data within the Delmarva Peninsula study area are available through a National Ocean Service interactive map interface, but towed sidescan data products are limited, and multibeam backscatter data products have not been available in the past. The U.S. Geological Survey obtained raw Reson multibeam data files from Science Applications International Corporation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for 20 hydrographic surveys and extracted backscatter data using the Fledermaus Geocoder Toolbox from Quality Positioning Service. The backscatter mosaics produced by the U.S. Geological Survey for the inner continental shelf of the Delmarva Peninsula using National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data increased regional geophysical surveying efficiency, collaboration among government agencies, and the area over which geologic data can be interpreted by the U.S. Geological Survey. This report describes the methods by which the backscatter data were extracted and processed and includes backscatter mosaics and interpolated bathymetric surfaces. U.S. Geological Survey National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The geologic framework and surficial morphology of the shoreface and inner continental shelf off the Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, barrier island were mapped using high-resolution sidescan-sonar, bathymetric, and seismic-reflection surveying techniques, a suite of over 200 diver vibracores, and extensive seafloor observations by divers. The inner shelf is a sediment-starved, active surface of marine erosion; modern sediments, where present, form a patchy veneer over Tertiary and Quaternary units. The lithology of the underlying units exerts a primary control on the distribution, texture, and composition of surficial sediments, as well as inner-shelf bathymetry. The shoreface is dominated by a linear, cross-shore morphology of rippled scour depressions (RSDs) extending from just seaward of the surf zone onto the inner shelf. On the upper shoreface, the RSDs are incised up to 1 m below surrounding areas of fine sand, and have an asymmetric cross section that is steeper-sided to the north. On the inner shelf, the RSDs have a similar but more subdued cross-sectional profile. The depressions are floored primarily by shell hash and quartz gravel. Vibracore data show a thick (up to 1.5 m) sequence of RSD sediments that unconformably overlies ancient coastal lithosomes. In this sediment-starved inner shelf setting, rippled scour depressions probably form initially on preexisting coarse-sediment substrates such as modern lag deposits of paleofluvial channel lithosomes or ancient tidal inlet thalwegs. Interannual observations of seafloor morphologic change and the longer-term record contained in vibracores suggest that the present seafloor morphology is either relatively stable or represents a recurring, preferential morphologic state to which the seafloor returns after storm-induced perturbations. The apparent stability is interpreted to be the result of interactions at several scales that contribute to a repeating, self-reinforcing pattern of forcing and sedimentary response which ultimately causes the RSDs to be maintained as sediment-starved bedforms responding to both along-shore and across-shore flows. Sediment accumulation from over 30 years of extensive beach nourishment at Wrightsville Beach appears to have exceeded the local shoreface accommodation space, resulting in the "leaking" of beach and shoreface sediment to the inner shelf. A macroscopically identifiable beach nourishment sediment on the shoreface and inner shelf was used to identify the decadal-scale pattern of sediment dispersal. The nourishment sediment is present in a seaward-thinning wedge that extends from the beach over a kilometer onto the inner shelf to waters depths of 14 m. This wedge is best developed offshore of the shoreline segment that has received the greatest volume of beach nourishment.

Understanding and managing dynamic coastal landscapes for beach-dependent species requires biological and geological data across the range of relevant environments and habitats. It is difficult to acquire such information; data often have limited focus due to resource constraints, are collected by non-specialists, or lack observational uniformity. We developed an open-source smartphone application called iPlover that addresses these difficulties in collecting biogeomorphic information at piping plover (Charadrius melodus) nest sites on coastal beaches. This paper describes iPlover development and evaluates data quality and utility following two years of collection (n = 1799 data points over 1500 km of coast between Maine and North Carolina, USA). We found strong agreement between field user and expert assessments and high model skill when data were used for habitat suitability prediction. Methods used here to develop and deploy a distributed data collection system have broad applicability to interdisciplinary environmental monitoring and modeling.

Nearly 300 km of 3.5 kHz subbottom profile and 100 kHz sidescan-sonar data, a suite of over 100 short (~2 m) percussion cores and vibracores have been collected on the shoreface and inner continental shelf off Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. Sidescan-sonar images were analyzed for acoustic backscatter to delineate the surface sediment distribution. Groundtruth data for the sidescan-sonar interpretations were provided by surface grab samples. Cross-shore sediment transport by combined waves and currents is the predominant sedimentologic signature on this shoreface. The shoreface is dominated by a shore-normal system of rippled scour depressions that begin in 3–4 m water depth and extend to the base of the shoreface about 1 km offshore, at 10 m depth. The depressions are 40–100 m wide, and up to 1 m deep. They are floored by coarse, rippled shell hash and gravel; some are separated by rock-underlain fine sand ridges. On the inner shelf, the bathymetric and sedimentary fabrics become shore-oblique, due to a series of relict ridges with 1–2 m of relief. The ridges are coarse on their landward sides and covered on their seaward flanks by thin veneers of fine sand. Field evidence from the Wrightsville Beach shoreface demonstrates that a shoreface equilibrium profile as defined by Dean (1991) and others does not exist here. For example: (1) the grain size varies widely and inconsistently over the profile; (2) shoreface profile shape is controlled predominantly by underlying geology, including Tertiary limestone outcrops and Oligocene silts; and (3) sediment transport patterns cannot be explained by simple diffusion due to wave energy gradients, and that transport occurs seaward of the assumed engineering “closure depth” of 8.5 m. This has several implications for the application of equilibrium profile-based numerical models used to investigate coastal processes and design coastal engineering projects at Wrightsville Beach. The most important practical implication is that a number of assumptions required by existing analytical and numerical models (e.g., Dean, 1991; genesis ; sbeach ) used for the design of shore protection projects and large-scale coastal modeling over decadal time scales cannot be met.

[1] Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (−1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions.